NEW YORK-22 TOPLINES
CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT N equals 400 respondents Fielded October 12-13, 2018 MoE ± 4.9%
My name is ______of a national survey research firm. We’re talking with people like you today across New York and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis. You have been selected randomly to participate in a survey and have a rare opportunity to voice your opinions. I am not selling or promoting any product and I am not asking for a donation; I simply want to know what you think and how you feel. (DO NOT PAUSE)
1. Do state and county records show you to be registered as… (RANDOMIZE)
40% Republican 18% Independent or Unaffiliated 38% Democratic 4% Unsure / refused (vol) ______
2. Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are… (ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)
96% Very Likely 4% Somewhat Likely ______
3. Now, thinking about the election for Congress that will be held in November – If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for … (ROTATE CHOICES) (Probe: And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?)
47% Total Republican 41% Definitely Republican 6% Probably Republican
11% Undecided (vol)
41% Total Democrat 8% Probably Democrat 32% Definitely Democrat
1% Refused (vol)
______
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund 1 New York’s 22nd Congressional District TOPLINE
IF “UNDECIDED” IN PREVIOUS QUESTION, ASK: 4. And which party’s candidate do you lean toward at this time? (ROTATE CHOICES)
N46 9% The Republican Candidate 27% The Democrat Candidate
51% Hard Undecided (vol) 13% Neither (vol) - Refused (vol)
______
Now thinking about President Trump…
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? (Probe: If choice made, ask: Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?)
58% Total Approve 48% Strongly Approve 10% Somewhat Approve
39% Total Disapprove 5% Somewhat Disapprove 34% Strongly Disapprove
3% Unsure / refused (vol) ______
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund 2 New York’s 22nd Congressional District TOPLINE
NAME RECOGNITION AND FAVORABILITY RATINGS Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and we’ll move on. (RANDOMIZE IN SECTION)
(ASK FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE): And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?
94% Total Name ID 89% Hard Name ID
47% Total Favorable 35% Strongly Favorable 12% Somewhat Favorable
44% Total Unfavorable 6% Somewhat Unfavorable 38% Strongly Unfavorable
4% Heard of / No Opinion 4% Never Heard Of 1% Do Not Know (vol) - Refused (vol) ______
7. Anthony Brindisi
92% Total Name ID 85% Hard Name ID
49% Total Favorable 30% Strongly Favorable 19% Somewhat Favorable
39% Total Unfavorable 12% Somewhat Unfavorable 26% Strongly Unfavorable
6% Heard of / No Opinion 6% Never Heard Of 1% Do Not Know (vol) - Refused (vol) ______
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund 3 New York’s 22nd Congressional District TOPLINE
BALLOT TESTS
8. If the election for Attorney General were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (RANDOMIZE)
• The Republican candidate, Keith Wofford • The Democratic candidate, Letitia James
(Probe: If choice made, ask: Would that be DEFINITELY, or just PROBABLY?) (If Undecided, ask: Who are you leaning toward?)
45% Total Keith Wofford 38% Definitely Keith Wofford 6% Probably Keith Wofford 2% Lean Keith Wofford
37% Total Letitia James 25% Definitely Letitia James 9% Probably Letitia James 3% Lean Letitia James
3% Someone Else (vol) 14% Hard Undecided (vol) * Refused (vol) ______
9. If the election for U.S. Congress were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between (ROTATE) Republican Claudia Tenney, and Democrat Anthony Brindisi?
(Probe: And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For [Insert Candidate]?)
(Probe Those Who Say Undecided: Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?)
50% Total Claudia Tenney 40% Definitely Claudia Tenney 9% Probably Claudia Tenney 1% Lean Claudia Tenney
42% Total Anthony Brindisi 1% Lean Anthony Brindisi 12% Probably Anthony Brindisi 29% Definitely Anthony Brindisi
7% Hard Undecided/Do Not Know (vol) 1% Other (Please Specify) (Record Verbatim) (vol) - Would Not Vote (vol) - Refused (vol) ______
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund 4 New York’s 22nd Congressional District TOPLINE
ADDITIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS Finally, I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.
10. In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you’ll recall, the candidates were… (Randomize choices)
55% Donald Trump, Republican 39% Hillary Clinton, Democrat 2% Gary Johnson, Libertarian 1% Jill Stein, Green Party 1% Other names (vol) 1% Did not vote (vol) * Refused (vol) ______
11. In which year were you born? (Place into category)
16% 18-34 28% 35-54 23% 55-64 33% 65+ - Refused ______
12. And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background? (READ AND ROTATE)
92% White or Caucasian 2% African-American or Black 2% Hispanic or Latino 2% Asian or Pacific Islander 2% Multi-Racial or Other (vol) 1% Do Not Know (vol) 1% Refused (vol) ______
13. County
28% Broome 7% Chenango 7% Cortland 8% Herkimer 10% Madison 31% Oneida 7% Oswego 3% Tioga
______
14. Gender
48% Male 52% Female ______
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund 5 New York’s 22nd Congressional District TOPLINE