View of West Brother Island and Mt. Tamalpais from East Brother Light Station, Richmond, CA

Richmond Mean in 2017? 2016 Year End Review Predictions and Wishes for 2017 , Mayor, January 1, 2017

Contents About www.tombutt.com and the E-FORUM ...... 1 Top Stories of 2016 ...... 3 Election 2016 – Trump Takes the White House; RPA Takes Richmond City Hall ...... 3 Richmond Riviera ...... 7 The Global Campus – Gone but Not Forgotten ...... 8 Housing – Something for Everyone ...... 10 Jobs Galore ...... 13 Richmond Housing Authority Vindicated ...... 14 Red Oak Vicory Relocation and Riggers Loft Opening ...... 14 Richmond Rosies Reclaim Title ...... 15 How did my Wishes and Predictions for 2016 Turn Out? ...... 16 1. Budget ...... 16 2. Elections ...... 16 3. Crime ...... 16 4. Ballot Initiatives ...... 16 5. Chevron ...... 16 6. Point Molate ...... 16 7. Global Campus ...... 16 8. City Council ...... 16 9. Climate Action Plan and Zoning Ordinance ...... 17 10. Branding and Marketing Plan ...... 17 Wishes and Predictions for 2017 ...... 18 1. Budget ...... 18 2. Richmond Fair Rent, Just Cause for Eviction, and Homeowner Protection Ordinance ...... 18 3. Crime ...... 18 4. Community Survey ...... 18 5. Chevron ...... 18 6. Point Molate ...... 18 7. Terminal 1 ...... 18 8. City Council ...... 18 9. Richmond Field Station ...... 18 10. Branding and Marketing Plan ...... 19

Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 1 of 21

About www.tombutt.com and the E-FORUM

I started the E-FORUM 16 years ago in 2001primarily to provide Richmond-related news, information and points of view not readily available in the mainstream media, although I have copied and shared a lot of articles from mainstream media over the years. Since then, Richmond news media sources have changed, as Internet media has largely replaced the traditional print media, including sponsored outlets, such as Richmond Standard and Radio Free Richmond, academically-connected sources such as Richmond Confidential, various political websites such as Richmond Progressive Alliance, neighborhood council newsletters and Nextdoor. You can also sign up to receive a number of notifications from the City of Richmond, including the City Manager’s Weekly Report at http://www.ci.richmond.ca.us/list.aspx.

The first E-FORUM was dated January 13, 2001, and carried information about obtaining public records from the City of Richmond.

E-FORUMS typically fall into three categories:

1. Copies of content from other media, including emails from other people and organizations announcing events or providing information. 2. Copies of content from other media with some preliminary editorializing by me. 3. Pieces that are primarily editorial or personal reports.

I have over 4,000 people and about 40 media contacts on my current list, but I understand a lot more people get it through secondary distribution from primary addressees.

In addition to email distribution, all E-FORUMS beginning in 2001 are accessible on my website at http://www.tombutt.com/e-forum/e-forum.htm and http://www.tombutt.com/archives.htm.

The website, www.tombutt.com gets a lot of traffic. In the past 12 months, there were 172,242 visitors (473 per day average) and 2,232,910 hits, down from 336,360 visitors and 2,260,835 hits in 2015.

Daily Visitors

The most daily visitors of 2016 were on March 2. I don’t know why, but the following E-FORUMS were on March 1: Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 2 of 21

 Richmond Promise Deadlines Quickly Approaching! March 1, 2016  Richmond Progressive Alliance Opposes Riviera Ballot Measure, March 1, 2016  SS Red Oak Victory Moves to Basin 5 and Riggers Loft Wine Company Opens on March 4, March 1, 2016

At the website www.tombutt.com, the most popular pages in 2016 were:

 Tom Butt, Mayor, http://www.tombutt.com/ Default.htm  Tom Butt, Mayor | E-forum, http://www.tombutt.com/ e-forum/e-forum.htm  Tom Butt, Mayor | About, http://www.tombutt.com/ biography.htm  Tom Butt, Mayor, http://www.tombutt.com/  http://www.tombutt.com/ contact.htm

The most popular E-FORUMs accessed in 2016 were:

 Attorney General Kamala D. Harris Issues Consumer Alert on Drone Registration and Safe Drone Usage, January 13, 2016 http://www.tombutt.com/ forum/2016/16-1-14.html  Richmond Police Swamped by Calls from "Targeted Individuals" May 31, 2015, http://www.tombutt.com/ forum/2015/15-05-31.htm  MJ's Brass Boppers & Zydeco Flames: Free PRM Concert on Friday, 7/8! July 1, 2016, http://www.tombutt.com/ forum/2016/16-7-1b.html  Hilltop Mall Officially on the Market, March 17, 2016, http://www.tombutt.com/ forum/2016/16-3-17.html  City of Richmond Ramps Up Collection of Business License and Transit Occupancy Taxes, October 22, 2016, http://www.tombutt.com/ forum/2016/16-10-22c.html

The most downloaded files in 2016 were:

 http://www.tombutt.com/ pdf/down the buffalo.pdf  http://www.tombutt.com/ pdf/magnus letter.pdf  http://www.tombutt.com/ pdf/Mapping Richmond Final.pdf  http://www.tombutt.com/ pdf/addison_butt_genealogy.pdf  http://www.tombutt.com/ pdf/cuba sister city trip 2013 report.pdf

The most active countries in 2016 were:

 United States of America  Germany  China  Ukraine  Canada

Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 3 of 21

I get a lot of responses to E-FORUM postings, and I read and appreciate all of them. Sometimes on a controversial subject I will create and send a digest of responses. I respond to a few, but I just don’t have time to respond to all of them all of the time.

I have no staff for the E-FORUM and my www.tombutt.com website other than two people in my Interactive Resources office who help me by entering and deleting email addresses and transferring E-FORUM’s to my website.

Since 2002, I have prepared some kind of year-end evaluation of City of Richmond services, problems, challenges and wishes. Originally, these were conveyed to my City Council colleagues and the city manager as a way of providing input into the annual city manager performance evaluation and establishing my priorities and legislative objectives for the coming year. Since 2005, I have invited public participation, and I have shared the results on my E-FORUM.

However, interest in providing evaluations, predictions and other information for this year-end piece continues to wane, and this year there were so few that I decided to eliminate that feature.

 2003, I shared one of these priorities on the E-FORUM in New Year's Resolution - A Full Court Press on Blight, January 3, 2003.  2004, I went whimsical and authored Out With The Old – In With The New, January 1, 2004, providing a number of awards and multiple choice predictions.  2005, I decided to expand the New Year’s Day, 2004 Year-End Review, December 31, 2004, to become a broader evaluation of the City of Richmond and to give E-FORUM readers an opportunity not only to participate but to also play the principal role.  2006 was What Can We Fix in 2006?, January 1, 2006.  2007, it was Will Richmond be Heaven in 2007? January 1, 2007.  At the beginning of 2008 I wrote Year 2007 Review and Will Richmond be Great in 2008?  2009: Will Richmond be Fine in 2009?  2010: 2009 Year End Review – Who Will Win in 2010?  2011: 2010 Year End Review – Will Richmond be Riven in 2011?  2012: In What Will We Delve in 2012?  2013: What is Foreseen in 2013?  2014: New Year 2014 Edition - Richmond Serene in 2014? January 1, 2014  2015: Richmond Lean in 2016? January 1, 2016

I recommend you take a look at these previous E-FORUMs. You will be amazed at how many challenges have persisted unabated, how many predictions have been fulfilled and how one year’s top stories became distant memories a year later.

I extend special thanks to all those citizens and City employees who keep me informed of both problems and solutions all year long. Your input is invaluable. Please keep it up. My E-FORUM is my best tool for dispensing with my own frustrations, and I hope it provides useful information for those who subscribe. Top Stories of 2016

Election 2016 – Trump Takes the White House; RPA Takes Richmond City Hall The pollsters got it wrong on both counts. Hillary was supposed to be president, and Bates, Myrick and Rogers were supposed to win the Richmond City Council election. Well, we know how that turned out.

Hillary is not our president, but she got 2.8 million more votes than Trump. RPA candidates Ben Choi and Melvin Willis, along with incumbent Jael Myrick, prevailed and will deliver at least a solid five-vote majority for the RPA Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 4 of 21

over at least the next two years. Like Trump, they won their seats fair and and square. However, more than 60% of voters voted for someone else.

2017 will likely be an interesting year for all of us and a sometimes challenging year for me, perhaps not that much different from my first year on the City Council where I often ended up on the wrong end of 8-1 votes.

For many issues, I will be aligned with the RPA City Council majority and will appreciate their support. A recent example of such alignment was the Carlson Boulevard improvement plan, where RPA votes were solidly in favor despite vehement opposition by some members of the public. RPA member s are good on environmental and quality of life issues and have attended some of the same conferences and presentations I have where experts have reviewed the advantages of road diets for vehicular, pedestrian and bicycle safety, slowing traffic, increasing walkability, encouraging bicycle use, improving health , reducing greenhouse gases and generally improving the quality of life in neighborhoods.

On the other hand, the RPA and I have battled over Rent Control and Just Cause incessantly for the last two years. Even with three RPA members on the City Council, the outcome of votes on controversial issues has been questionable with 4-3 or 3-4 splits not uncommon in the last two years. On January 17, all this will end. The RPA will take full charge of public policy in Richmond for at least the next two years.

The fact is that for my entire 20 years on the Richmond City Council, I have never enjoyed a majority who aligned closely with all my personal political beliefs, and I have butted heads with the City Council majority a thousand times. I’m used to it. Whatever I have accomplished these last 20 years, I have always done by building coalitions among often unlikely individuals or sometimes even by inviting intervention from outside. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 5 of 21

The official RPA line is that the RPA changed Richmond by being the first to challenge Chevron, but my first successful run for City Council in 1995 was largely a result of frustration with the City Council’s relationship with Chevron. See www.tombutt.com/pdf/chevron archives.pdf. In 1994, the City was considering a permit application for a major Chevron modernization project, and working with CBE, the West County Toxics Coalition and others, we had been able to get the Planning Commission to approve a $62 million community benefits package. The City Council swiftly dismantled the community benefits package on appeal, and the project moved forward without it.

About the same time, I had questioned the formula by which Chevron’s utility user tax was computed and filed a public records request (over a decade later, my concerns were fully validated). The City balked, and I sued. Then the City sued me for the costs of the lawsuit and won. See City Officials Threaten to Embarrass Council Member Over Unpaid Judgment. Later, the city attorney garnished my City Council wages. It was these types of actions by the City Council that motivated me to run. I was “madder’n hell and not going to take it anymore.”

When I was first elected in 1995 and took my seat along with eight others (we were seated right after the election in those days), I had to work with people like , Donna Powers and Richard Griffin, all of whom were closely tied to Chevron, the Richmond business establishment, developers and the public employee unions, particularly the public safety unions. I was often on the wrong end of 8-1 votes, but I reasoned that having even one vote was better than none. Today, the RPA rails against “corporate money,” but in those days, the big money came largely from City employee unions (some things don’t change) and developers laundered through lobbyist Darrell Reese. Chevron was so powerful that they got a free ride and didn’t even have to spend any money to wield influence.

Not long after I was sworn in, the City Council was faced with the selection of a consultant to prepare the Reuse Plan for Point Molate. Not satisfied with the short list selected to be interviewed by staff, the City Council majority insisted on interviewing all the candidates again, eventually reaching down to one ranked next to lowest by staff to which to award the contract. I protested, citing evidence of meddling by notorious firefighter unionist and lobbyist Darrell Reese, and eventually prevailed on the Navy to compel the City to repeat the whole process. Feelings and egos of my City Council colleagues were bruised during the process, and three Council members hired attorney John Burris who threatened to sue me. Eventually, the City Council took another vote, and consultant originally ranked first by staff was awarded the contract.

On March 21, 1996, I wrote the following letter that was published in the West County Times:

Anyone watching Richmond's March 4 City Council meeting was treated to an exhibition of raw political power unmatched in recent history.

The selection of the consultant for the Point Molate Reuse Plan left objectivity in Richmond politics looking like mangled road kill, flattened and ground into the pavement by a hit-and-run Darrell Reese political machine It is now clear that Reese owns five members of the City Council and that he sells their votes off like slabs of premium pork in a political butcher shop to anyone willing to pay the price.

I believe the consulting team headed by Dan Peterson & Associates was hand-picked by Reese for the Point Molate assignment. Although Peterson was ranked next to last of seven teams interviewed by city staff and was also ranked low by the City Council, Reese's five votes assured Peterson the contract without any substantive debate or compelling justification.

The staff report provided to City Council members noted that his team had "weak project management" and "no relevant experience." Each of the six teams not selected for this project spent $5,000 to $20,000 in good faith, preparing voluminous proposals and appearing at two formal interviews.

They now know they were simply cannon fodder in a pre-wired political deal. This kind of duplicity is devastating to Richmond's reputation and will severely damage our ability in the future to attract top-notch talent to apply for city consulting contracts. The only reason given for Peterson's selection is that he is a "local" firm and that "the city puts a premium on hiring local workers." The term "local" may be technically correct, but "obscure" might be more appropriate. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 6 of 21

With several highly-qualified and well-established firms to choose from, all with significant experience in base-closure planning, Reese-owned city council members chose a one-person "firm" with no pertinent experience.

Several of the higher-rated firms were woman-owned and African-American-owned. Peterson, who is a white male, has no office and no employees. He works alone in his Richmond home. Like Hilltop and Marina Bay ads, which neglect to mention Richmond, Peterson uses a Marin County (415 area code) phone number and lists himself only in the Marin County Yellow Pages.

His wife's "firm," Architectural Preservation Consultants (located in the same condo) is included as a major subconsultant on the team, but is not even listed in the phone book.

Sometimes I wonder why we don't just cut out the middlemen and turn the city over to Reese. It would save money on City Council expenses, stop wasting my time, and provide the same results.

Despite a suspicious reception from most of my new City Council colleagues beginning in 1995, I worked with Alex Evans to get an ordinance regulating lobbyists passed. I worked with Donna Powers to bring the Rosie the Riveter WWII Home Front National Historical Park to Richmond and with Mayor Rosemary Corbin to pass a Historic Preservation ordinance. I worked with Mayor to set up what became the Office of Neighborhood Safety. In 2014, I worked with Jim Rogers and Jael Myrick to successfully negotiate a $90 million Environmental and Community Investment Agreement (ECIA) with Chevron that would not have passed without support from Nat Bates and Corky Booze. The RPA City Council members voted against the ECIA.

I have also worked successfully with RPA City Council members ever since Gayle was first elected to the City Council over a decade ago. We have agreed on all environmental and health issues, and we voted together to approve the General Plan 2030 and joining what is now MCE Clean Energy. We collaborated to retain Bill Lindsay when Nat Bates and Vinay Pimple voted to fire him. We worked together to successfully defeat Measure N (Richmond Riviera) and Measure O, and we both supported the unsuccessful Measure M (real estate transfer tax). I nominated Ben Choi to fill the seat ultimately filled by Vinay Pimple, but the RPA City Council members rejected Choi and ended up with Pimple. I have appointed a number of RPA stalwarts and even RPA steering committee members to City boards and commissions.

I congratulate Melvin Willis and Ben Choi on their victory, and I look forward to working with them. The RPA ran a superb ground campaign and outworked, outfoxed and out fundraised all other candidates.

On the other hand, this election was neither a mandate nor a blowout. There were nearly 33,000 voters in this election, and of the 32,758 who voted:

 37.05% voted for Willis  32.02% voted for Choi  30.20% voted for Myrick That means that 63% of voters wanted someone other than Willis and 68% voted for someone other than Choi. None of the three winners came even close to a majority, but all they needed was a plurality. That’s the way our political system works. It’s kind of like Hillary won the popular vote, and Trump won the election. What remains to be seen is whether the RPA will respect the 60+ percent of residents who did not support them as well as the fewer than 40 percent who did. If the RPA takes this as a mandate, it is going to get contentious. If they take it as an opportunity to collaborate for a better Richmond, we could make real progress.

In any event, the November election is over, and we have to get to work. Below are the final results, compilation courtesy of Don Gosney. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 7 of 21

Richmond Riviera For reasons that were never clear, the Quixotic Richard Poe, whose family was the master developer of Marina Bay, wanted to build a low density waterfront residential development on a parcel the General Plan designated for high density mixed-use. When the Planning Department and several City Council members, including me, tried to discourage him, he doubled down on his plan by withdrawing it from the normal entitlement process, paying for a successful petition drive and placing it on the ballot as an initiative.

To punish the City Council for not supporting Richmond Riviera, Poe added a second initiative that would effectively limit the city manager’s compensation to a level that would make it difficult, if not impossible, to recruit a qualified city manager in the future. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 8 of 21

In the June 7, 2016 election, voters rejected both Measures N and O. Richard Poe moved to Florida and put the Richmond Riviera site up for sale. The Global Campus – Gone but Not Forgotten On January 23, 2012, The University of California announced on that it has identified the Richmond Field Station as its preferred site for the proposed consolidation of the biosciences programs of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL).

This followed a protracted selection process where the Richmond community came together in the biggest show of support for anything since WWII.

Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin says that the city has been committed to greening the city’s footprint and the lab’s research focus is compatible with the city’s trajectory. “The research goals of LBNL promoting clean energy and innovation is right in line with our healthy direction for our residents and our planet,” McLaughlin said in an email. “Having LBNL’s second campus here will add to our already burgeoning local green economy.”

By March 18, 2016, McLaughlin’s support for the project had taken a different course:

Gayle McLaughlin, a Richmond City Council member and former Richmond mayor, said at the rally that Richmond is prepared to stand up for “what we believe in” and will not allow residents to suffer from the campus’s arrival.

What happened between 2012 and 2016?

For over half a decade, the promise of the Global Campus at Richmond Bay, previously the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) expansion, was a much touted trophy and the lynchpin of Richmond’s boast for a prosperous future. In 2016, it disappeared in a flash. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 9 of 21

The blame game started immediately. The official story was that it was just money. UC Berkeley could not afford to continue to pursue the dream, and outside financiers had not stepped forward (“UC Berkeley Global Campus suspended due to lack of funds,”).

The real story is more nuanced. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) expansion was, in fact, a victim of insufficient federal funding. Chancellor Dirks then championed the Global Campus as a grand vision to replace the demised LBNL expansion, but events turned on both him and his dream.

Unrelated to the Global Campus, Dirks drew criticism for not acting more swiftly and more decisively to a pair of sexual harassment incidents involving top university staff, and the campus budget went into the red. Students were upset about fee increases; AFSCME (the largest campus employee union) was upset about union contract issues, and the faculty was upset because -- the faculty is always upset. Ultimately, Dirks resigned (effective June 2017) (“Dirks to resign after Tumultuous Tenure as Chancellor”), and the Global Campus went with him.

The Global Campus played a subtle but critical role in Dirks’ misfortunes. While Dirks saw the Global Camus as an asset, his detractors saw it as both a distraction and competitor for increasingly scarce campus funds. Perhaps it would have stayed under the radar except that a group of activists, including the Richmond Progressive Alliance (RPA), Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE), Contra Costa Interfaith Supporting Community Organization (CCISCO), and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), formed a coalition with the objective of shaking down UC Berkeley for millions of dollars in funding for housing, jobs, education and wage guarantees in a Community Benefits Agreement for the Global Campus funded by UC Berkeley.

At one point, activists, including those in the Richmond coalition, assaulted Dirks’ unprotected residence, so he had a fence erected. But the cost of the fence became (“Fence around chancellor’s residence completed at 2 1/2 times original budget”) its own touchstone for critics. The shrill demands for money from activists did not sit well with anyone trying to stem the flow of red ink from the campus.

Ironically, the manifesto and playbook that provided the basis for the demands came not from Richmond but from UC Berkeley itself, specifically the Haas Institute for a Fair and Inclusive Society (“… the Haas Institute is focusing on the relationship between a new research campus being planned by UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)—known as the Berkeley Global Campus at Richmond Bay — and surrounding communities.” Also see “Anchor Richmond” and “Belonging and Community Health in Richmond.” Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 10 of 21

As of now, that piece of waterfront property west of the I-580 Bayview interchange has reverted to what it has always been – an underutilized outpost called the UC Berkeley Field Station. Housing – Something for Everyone Everyone has a different silver bullet for the housing crisis, defined as not enough housing that everyone can afford at his or her income level. The widely accepted definition of affordable housing is that which requires no more than 30% of household income. The median Household Income in Richmond is $54,857, so 30% would be $16,457 annually or $1,370 per month. The median rent in Richmond is $2,417 per month, or 76% more than the 30% threshold.

Richmond has the lowest median household income of any of the 65 cities tracked in the nine-county Bay Area, except for San Pablo, but it also has among the lowest rents and among the lowest sales prices of homes.

The really big news for 2016 is that the RPA-sponsored Measure L: Richmond Fair Rent, Just Cause for Eviction, and Homeowner Protection Ordinance passed in November and goes into effect December 30, 2016. For more information, see Richmond Rent Program. Ironically, the significant rent increases that inspired the ordinance may be just history; rents peaked in May of 2016 and have been trending downward ever since,, tracking a Bay Area- wide phenomenon. .(Source: https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Richmond-California/ Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 11 of 21

Although Measure L: Richmond Fair Rent, Just Cause for Eviction, and Homeowner Protection Ordinance passed handily at 65%, it was clearly the most divisive and contentious political issue of the year. Whether Measure L will actually lower anybody’s rent remains to be seen, but advocates also point to the Just Cause provision.

A Richmond Confidential article “Richmond has Contra Costa’s highest number of sheriff-enforced evictions, document shows” highlighted the large number of evictions in Richmond, There is a presumption by some that this number will be reduced when Measure L kicks in, but there is no information about how many of these would be for “just cause,” and therefore not affected by Measure L.

While the RPA was focusing on rent control, others were focusing on expanding the housing stock as a way to moderate rent increases and provide affordable housing.

In collaboration with the City of Richmond, the Richmond Community Foundation is using Social Impact Bonds to acquire, rehabilitate and transfer foreclosed housing to low income buyers.

On November 15, 2016, the City Council adopted a new Zoning Ordinance that includes updated regulations for Accessory Dwelling Units and new provision for Junior Accessory Dwelling Units (JADU).

On December 6, 2016, the City Council passed the Fair Chance Access to Affordable Housing ordinance, which provides more equitable application procedures for previously incarcerated individuals for public and subsidized housing.

Unfortunately, most of the proposed new residential projects that have been in the entitlement process since 2015 are not progressing to construction. The one exception is the “Point Richmond Residential Project” (“The Point”) that is under construction. The 289-unit Nevin Homes Project, the 60-unit Shea Homes Project, the 316-unit Terminal 1 Project, the 255-unit Bay Walk Project, and the 172-unit Central Avenue Project are showing no signs of life. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 12 of 21

According to a Chronicle article on November 30, 2016:

The median price paid for all homes sold in the nine-county Bay Area in October was $675,000, according to a CoreLogic report released Wednesday. That was up 3.8 percent from the previous month and up 6.1 percent year over year. The data include new and existing homes and condos that closed in October. Year over year, the median price has risen for 55 consecutive months — since April 2012, CoreLogic said. October’s median, however, was 4.9 percent below the Bay Area’s all-time high of $710,000 set in June.

In Richmond, the median sales price of a home is a bargain at $422,500, according to Trulia. You can still buy waterfront property at Marina Bay for as little as $275,000.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Richmond-California/market-trends/

An aerial view of the Shores at Marina Bay. Very few new housing projects in the region have such low prices, mainly because land and construction costs are so high. Richmond's median listed sales price was Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 13 of 21

$424,800 at the end of October, up from $399,000 in the year before, according to Zillow. In San Francisco, the median home listing was over $1.1 million.

Bridgepoint Funding expects the rise in Richmond home values to taper off in 2017:

According to the real estate information company Zillow, home prices in Richmond, CA rose by more than 10% over the last year. This is based on their “Zestimate,” a proprietary measurement of house values. But we probably shouldn’t expect such large gains in 2017. The company’s housing market forecast for Richmond calls for less appreciation in 2017, with prices rising by less than 5% year over year. In their words: “Richmond home values have gone up 15.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.6% within the next year.” This was their assessment as of July 2016.

Jobs Galore Fewer Richmond residents, proportionately, are out of work right now than any time since WWII. The December 2016 unemployment rate in Richmond was a record 4.8%. The chart below goes back to 1990 but does not go all the way to December 2016. According to State of California EDD data as of December 16, 2016, Richmond’s labor force was 54,100, with 54,600 working and 2,600 not working and an unemployment rate of 4.8%.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/richmond_ca_unemployment_rate

Meanwhile, the City of Richmond Employment and Training Department continues to make headlines for its Richmond Build program, training young people to enter the red-hot and lucrative construction industry job market. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 14 of 21

Richmond Housing Authority Vindicated After being bashed by the media and several City Council members for years, the Richmond Housing Authority has been given the highest possible rating. The following is from Bill Lindsay’s Weekly Report:

The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD’s) Section Eight Management Assessment Program (SEMAP) measures the performance of public housing agencies (PHAs) that administer the Housing Choice Voucher program (Section 8) in 14 key areas. The objective of the SEMAP program is to help HUD target monitoring and assistance to PHA programs that need the most improvement.

SEMAP scores are on a scale from zero to 100. High performers have a score above 90; troubled performers have a score below 60. The SEMAP indicators help assess overall PHA performance, and help to focus attention on weak performance areas to effectively and efficiently use scarce resources.

In a letter dated October 31, 2016, HUD released the Richmond Housing Authority’s (RHA’s) SEMAP for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2016. The SEMAP score for the RHA was 100%, with a “High Performer” designation, which represents a significant achievement for the Richmond Housing Authority. Red Oak Vicory Relocation and Riggers Loft Opening After years of contentious wrangling among City Council members, the Red Oak Victory was successfully relocated to historic Bert 5 at Point Potrero Marine Terminal (historic Shipyard 3), and the Riggers Loft Wine Company had its formal opening.

The Riggers Loft has already become a favorite venue for both formal and informal gatherings, and the co-location with the Red oak Victory has been a symbiotic boon for both.

Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 15 of 21

Richmond Rosies Reclaim Title In a seesawing competition with Ypsilanti, MI, an estimated 2,265 “Rosies” took back the World Guinness Record on August 13, 2016, for the highest number of people dressed as Rosie the Riveter to gather in one place.

The previous world record was held by Ypsilanti, Michigan, the site of a former World War II bomber plant, which last October bested the record set in Richmond a year ago. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 16 of 21

How did my Wishes and Predictions for 2016 Turn Out?

I didn’t do too well. I got two out of ten and four partials.

1. Budget  Prediction: The City Council will pass a structurally balanced budget for FY 2016-17 and the City’s bond ratings will be restored.  What Happened: A structurally balanced budget was adopted, but the bond ratings did not change.

2. Elections  Prediction: All incumbents will be reelected to the Richmond City Council  What Happened? One incumbent, Jael Myrick was reelected.

3. Crime  Prediction: The City’s crime rate, including homicides, will go back down.  What Happened? Homicides about the same as 2015, but crime overall is down slightly

4. Ballot Initiatives  Prediction: None of the ballot initiatives, including rent control, city manager compensation and Richmond Riviera, will succeed in the November elections.  What Happened? Richmond Riviera and City Manager Compensation failed; rent control passed

5. Chevron  Prediction: The City of Richmond litigation against Chevron will be settled  What Happened? Nothing.

6. Point Molate  Prediction: The Point Molate litigation with Upstream and Guidiville will be resolved, and Point Molate will begin to be developed using the “Presidio Trust” model.  What Happened? Nothing

7. Global Campus  Prediction: The Global campus will continue to languish.  What Happened? The Global Campus died.

8. City Council  Prediction: The City Council will have a much less contentious year than 2015.  What Happened? It wasn’t that bad, but being an election year, it was probably worse than 2015.

Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 17 of 21

9. Climate Action Plan and Zoning Ordinance  Prediction: A Climate Action Plan and new Zoning Ordinance will be adopted.  What Happened? A Climate Action Plan and new Zoning Ordinance were adopted

10. Branding and Marketing Plan  Prediction: Richmond will have a Branding and Marketing Plan.  What Happened? The Plan is well underway but not yet complete.

Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 18 of 21

Wishes and Predictions for 2017

1. Budget  Prediction: The Budget process will be contentious as revenue falls several million dollars short of projected expenditures, and the RPA will double down on their 2016 plan to drastically cut compensation of everyone but SEIU members. Senior staff members will look for jobs elsewhere.

2. Richmond Fair Rent, Just Cause for Eviction, and Homeowner Protection Ordinance  Prediction: Implementation of the Richmond Fair Rent, Just Cause for Eviction and Homeowner Protection Ordinance will be rocky. Parts of it will be successfully challenged in court. Many tenants will be disappointed that they are not covered by the rent control provisions or that their evictions have, in fact, been just. Everyone will be confused.

3. Crime  Wish: The City’s crime rate, particularly homicides, will go back down.

4. Community Survey  Prediction: The semiannual Community Survey will report continued confidence in the direction the City is going.

5. Chevron  Prediction: The City of Richmond litigation against Chevron will not be settled in 2017.

6. Point Molate  Prediction: There will be a judgment rendered in the Point Molate litigation. The City will prevail, but the future will remain contentious.

7. Terminal 1  Prediction: The expected $10 million windfall from sale of Terminal 1 will not occur as the financier fails to perform.

8. City Council  Prediction: At least one City Council member will resign in 2017.

9. Richmond Field Station  Prediction: Following demise of the Global Campus vision, the University of California will proceed to plan for campus expansion, including faculty housing, UCSF-affiliated facilities and public-private partnerships for R&D facilities. Richmond, CA, 2016 Year End Review and Predictions/Wishes for 2017 Page 19 of 21

10. Branding and Marketing Plan  Prediction: Richmond will have a Branding and Marketing Plan.

Happy New Year!

Tom Butt