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MIKE POMPEO: HOW TO CONFRONT IRAN NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2018 / • / Do Nuclear Weapons Matter? • FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM ND18_cover_FINAL_SUB.indd All Pages 9/20/18 4:31 PM DECISIVE PRINCIPLED VERSATILE TRANSITION FROM YOUR LIFE IN SPECIAL OPERATIONS TO PARAMILITARY OPERATIONS WITH THE CIA. With your special operations training, you’ve proven that you’ll push yourself to the limit in defending what makes our country great. Now, we’re inviting you to go beyond – to serve our nation’s interests as a Paramilitary Operations Ofcer or Specialized Skills Ofcer with the CIA’s Directorate of Operations. You’ll conduct intelligence activities globally using your signicant combat and leadership experience in Special Operations or Combat Arms (Infantry and Aviation). Every company has a mission statement. Some are just more meaningful than others. Successful candidates for this position may be eligible for a one-time hiring bonus of up to 25% of their base pay. THE WORK OF A NATION. For additional information and to apply, visit: THE CENTER OF INTELLIGENCE. cia.gov/careers Applicants must have US citizenship and the ability to successfully complete medical examinations and security procedures, including a polygraph interview. An equal opportunity employer and a drug-free workforce. CHF111561m_PMOO_Decisive_ForeignAffairs_7x10.indd 1 3/16/18 3:24 PM Volume 97, Number 6 DO NUCLEAR WEAPONS MATTER? Nuclear Weapons Don’t Matter 10 But Nuclear Hysteria Does John Mueller The Vanishing Nuclear Taboo? 16 How Disarmament Fell Apart Nina Tannenwald COVER: CONCEPT If You Want Peace, Prepare for Nuclear War 25 A Strategy for the New Great-Power Rivalry BY Elbridge Colby DELCAN Armed and Dangerous 35 & CO.; When Dictators Get the Bomb PHOTO ILLUSTRATION PHOTO Scott D. Sagan Beijing’s Nuclear Option 44 Why a U.S.-Chinese War Could Spiral Out o Control Caitlin Talmadge BY JUSTIN Moscow’s Nuclear Enigma 52 What Is Russia’s Arsenal Really For? METZ Olga Oliker November/December 2018 ND18.indb 1 9/20/18 7:41 PM “The best home smaller. security system” wirecutter faster. april 2018 stronger. “...SimpliSafe belongs at Meet the all new SimpliSafe. the top of your list...” It’s smaller, faster, stronger than ever. cnet editors’ choice Engineered with a single focus: to protect. 3/28/18 With sensors so small they’re practically invisible. Designed to disappear into your home And blanket it with protection. More than easy to use—downright delightful. “A seamless system” All at prices that are fair and honest. pcmag editors’ choice It’s home security. Done right. 4/2/18 Get SimpliSafe’s exclusive holiday offer at SimpliSafe.com/affairs ESSAYS Confronting Iran 60 The Trump Administration’s Strategy Michael R. Pompeo The Committee to Save the World Order 72 America’s Allies Must Step Up as America Steps Down Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay The Crisis Next Time 84 What We Should Have Learned From 2008 Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart How to Save Globalization 98 Rebuilding America’s Ladder o Opportunity Kenneth F. Scheve and Matthew J. Slaughter The Next Arab Uprising 113 The Collapse o Authoritarianism in the Middle East Marwan Muasher Venezuela’s Suicide 126 Lessons From a Failed State Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro The Use and Misuse of Economic Statecraft 139 How Washington Is Abusing Its Financial Might Jacob J. Lew and Richard Nephew ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM H. R. McMaster on Andrei Kolesnikov on Amanda Sloat on how John McCain and the Putin’s plummeting to save U.S.-Turkish meaning of courage. approval ratings. relations. November/December 2018 02_TOC_Blues.indd 3 9/24/18 2:49 PM Master of Science in Public Policy & Management (MSPPM) With an MSPPM degree from Heinz College, students develop skills necessary to solve the societal challenges we face today. Some students choose the data analytics pathway, while others apply to spend their second year in Washington, D.C., as Heinz Policy Fellows, getting work experience that oftenleads to full time job offersupon graduation. Whatever your path, a degree from Heinz College will ensure you're prepared to solve complex policy problems, wherever they exist, from local to global. For more information, visit https://www.heinz.cmu.edu Carnegie Mellon University THE INTERSECTION OF PEOPLE+POLICY He1 ollege +TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION SYSTEMS • PUBLIC POLICY• MANAGEMENT Generation Stress 150 The Mental Health Crisis on Campus Sylvia Mathews Burwell Old Money, New Order 158 American Philanthropies and the Defense o Liberal Democracy Darren Walker Health Without Wealth 168 The Worrying Paradox o Modern Medical Miracles Thomas Bollyky REVIEWS & RESPONSES The Unheard Nerds 180 How Economists Can Talk So Policymakers Will Listen Karen Dynan Doomsday Delusions 187 The Case for Optimism in a Pessimistic Age Steven Radelet Praying for Pakistan 193 Extremism and Corruption in a Troubled State Mohammed Hanif The Secret Sharers 199 Leaking and Whistle-Blowing in the Trump Era Peter Feaver; Allison Stanger; Michael Walzer Recent Books 207 “Foreign Aairs . will tolerate wide dierences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. It does not accept responsibility for the views in any articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear.” Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922 November/December 2018 02_TOC_Blues.indd 5 9/24/18 2:49 PM November/December 2018 · Volume 97, Number 6 Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Editor, Peter G. 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To obtain permission, visit ForeignA airs.com/about-us Foreign A airs is a member o the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association o Magazine Media. GST Number 127686483RT Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310 ND18.indb 6 9/20/18 7:41 PM CONTRIBUTORS MICHAEL POMPEO, a former U.S. Army ocer and four-term Republican congressional representative from Kansas, served as director o the CIA from 2017 to 2018. In that role, he set up back-channel talks with the North Korean regime in advance o the June 2018 summit in Singapore. After the dismissal o U.S. Secretary o State Rex Tillerson, Pompeo was sworn in as secretary o state in April 2018. In “Confronting Iran” (page 60), Pompeo lays out the Trump administration’s strategy toward the Islamic Republic after Washington’s recent withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. MARWAN MUASHER has held a number o inuential posts in the Jordanian government. In 1995, he was appointed Jordan’s rst ambassador to Israel and worked extensively on negotiations for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conict. He went on to become ambassador to the United States, foreign minister, and deputy prime minister. Now, he is at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In “The Next Arab Uprising” (page 113), Muasher warns that the Middle East is in for more chaos unless its rulers remake social contracts from the bottom up. As secretary o health and human services during the Obama administration, SYLVIA MATHEWS BURWELL oversaw the implementation o the Aordable Care Act and led her department’s response to the Ebola and Zika outbreaks. Before that, she served as director o the Oce o Management and Budget and held leadership positions at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Walmart Foundation. In “Generation Stress” (page 150), Burwell, now president o American University, describes the growing mental health crisis among American youth and what can be done to x it. Born in southwestern Louisiana, DARREN WALKER worked at a law rm and at an investment bank before entering the nonprot world. Now, he heads the Ford Foundation,