A Perilous Course U.S

A Perilous Course U.S. Strategy and Assistance to Pakistan

A Report of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project Center for Strategic and International Studies

Author Craig Cohen Project Codirectors Frederick Barton Karin von Hippel

August 2007 About CSIS The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) seeks to advance global security and prosperity in an era of economic and political transformation by providing strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS serves as a strategic planning partner for the government by conducting research and analysis and developing policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Our more than 25 programs are organized around three themes: Defense and Security Policy—With one of the most comprehensive programs on U.S. defense policy and international security, CSIS proposes reforms to U.S. defense organization, defense policy, and the defense industrial and technology base. Other CSIS programs offer solutions to the challenges of proliferation, transnational terrorism, homeland security, and post-conflict reconstruction. Global Challenges—With programs on demographics and population, energy security, global health, technology, and the international financial and economic system, CSIS addresses the new drivers of risk and opportunity on the world stage. Regional Transformation—CSIS is the only institution of its kind with resident experts studying the transformation of all of the world’s major geographic regions. CSIS specialists seek to anticipate changes in key countries and regions—from Africa to Asia, from Europe to Latin America, and from the Middle East to North America. Founded in 1962 by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., with more than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated experts. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). About the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project The Post-Conflict Reconstruction (PCR) Project develops innovative strategies to speed, enhance, and strengthen international conflict response. Now in its seventh year, the PCR Project is a leading global source for authoritative analysis, evaluation, and recommendations for fragile states and for post-conflict reconstruction. The PCR Project focuses on the full spectrum of conflict-related concerns, from early warning and conflict prevention to rebuilding shattered societies. It incorporates the four essential pillars of reconstruction: security and public safety, justice and reconciliation, governance and participation, and economic and social progress. PCR Project staff members collaborate closely with senior U.S. decisionmakers, including representatives of congressional, military, diplomatic, development, and humanitarian agencies and field staff members, as well as with residents of local communities and U.S. national, bilateral, regional, and multilateral partners. The PCR Project’s Web site is http://www.pcrproject.com.

Cover photos (clockwise from top left): (1) Humvee at sunset near the Pakistan border in Paktika province, Afghanistan, August 3, 2006. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Bem Minor;(2) Karachi's Financial District, Shahra-e- faisal, by Siddiqui; (3) A U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter carries humanitarian relief supplies in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, January 4, 2006. DoD photo by 1st Lt. Chad Leisenring, U.S. Air Force; (4) Students of Jamia Hafsa participate in a demonstration at Laal Masjid to protest against the demolition of mosques in Islamabad, January 28, 2007, by Sajjad Ali Qureshi; (5) Multan, by Steve Evans; (6) Northern Pakistan, by Steve Evans; (7) Police escorting the "Non-Functional" Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, to a hearing by the Supreme Judicial Council, March 13, 2007, by Sajjad Ali Qureshi; (8) Children at the Data Durbar Complex, Lahore, Pakistan, March 9, 2005, by Steve Evans,; (9) George W. Bush and Pervez Musharraf walk together to their joint news conference at Aiwan-e-Sadr in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 4, 2006. White House photo by Shealah Craighead; (10) Pakistani men relocated from the surrounding mountains wait for the release of food and supplies to be offloaded from a U.S. Army CH-47D Chinook helicopter in remote village in Pakistan, November 3, 2005. U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Bruce Dzitko.

Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org Table of Contents

Acknowledgments...... iv Preface...... vi Executive Summary...... viii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms...... x

Chapter 1. U.S. Engagement since 9/11 ...... 1 Chapter 2. Analysis and Anticipation ...... 12 Chapter 3. The Balance Sheet...... 25 Chapter 4. Forging a New Partnership...... 43

Appendix A. U.S. Assistance Data ...... 54 Appendix B. Methodology...... 86 Appendix C. Tabletop Exercise ...... 88 Appendix D. Early Warning Discussion...... 90

Bibliography ...... 94 About the PCR Project Team...... 127

Acknowledgments

This report would not have been possible without the generous support of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation’s Global Development Program, which seeks to ensure that U.S. investments in foreign assistance are used in the most effective ways possible. The PCR Project would also like to thank the Ford Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Smith Richardson Foundation for additional support for this project and report. Additional thanks go to Ambassador Teresita C. Schaffer, who directs the South Asia Program for CSIS. Her experience in the region and her guidance from start to finish on this project proved invaluable. The PCR Project would also like to thank Derek Chollet, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and formerly of CSIS. Derek is coauthor with Craig Cohen of an article in the Washington Quarterly (Spring 2007) titled “When $10 Billion Isn’t Enough: Rethinking U.S. Strategy and Assistance to Pakistan.” Thanks also to CSIS Chief of Staff Corola McGiffert who provided valuable commentary on the initial manuscript. The PCR Project is grateful to those who participated in the peer review process for this report and who graciously shared their time throughout the course of the project, including some of the foremost experts on Pakistan and on U.S. national security and foreign assistance: Gordon Adams, Samina Ahmed, Arnaud de Borchgrave, Stephen Cohen, Lisa Curtis, Christine Fair, Charlie Flickner, Robert Grenier, Ayesha Jalal, Alan Kronstadt, Stephen Lennon, Daniel Markey, Mary McCarthy, William Milam, Jim Moody, Paula Newberg, Hasan Askari Rizvi, Dave Smith, and Marvin Weinbaum. Additional thanks are extended for the contributions of those currently serving in U.S. government positions, with special thanks to former U.S. Ambassador Robert B. Oakley for his assistance in cohosting a series of discussions on Pakistan in 2006. The PCR Project would also like to express gratitude to the hundreds of people who met with the project team and who shared their valuable time in both Washington and Pakistan, and to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for logistical help provided during the team’s research trip to Pakistan in March 2006. Mark Irvine provided excellent research assistance on the simulation exercise and throughout the course of this project. Other research assistance was provided by Sabina Sequeira on early warning systems and by John Ratcliffe a