Jordan Office

February 2021

Jordan’s 2020 Parliamentary Election: Settling for the Status Quo

Suha Ma’ayeh and Rana F. Sweis

This report explains what the 2020 parliamentary election results mean for Jordan at a time when the country is facing immense challenges aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Voter Turnout

Jordan’s government portrayed the 2020 parliamentary elections as a key milestone in its pursuit of and declared that Jordanians were practicing their constitutional rights during extraordinary times. Despite the pandemic, the public safety measures adopted by the Independent Election Commission helped guarantee orderly voting. The elections saw more political parties and women contesting for the 130-seats of the . Moreover, participation was generally higher than the previous polls, perhaps reflecting a desire of the young generation to engage in public policy.

However, only 29.9 percent of the 4.64 million eligible voters cast their ballot, down from 36 percent in 2016. It was the lowest turnout in more than a decade and an indication of voter apathy and mistrust in the political process. Concerns about the coronavirus transmission contributed to the low voter turnout, but many experts agree it was not the only reason. Polls reveal low confidence in government institutions, and many view parliament as being ineffective and lacking real legislative powers. In fact, several polls that were conducted prior to the coronavirus spread indicated that voter turnout would be low. On November 2, 2020, eight days before the elections, a poll published by Hayat for Civil Society Development (RASED) revealed that only 33.7 percent of Jordanians intended to participate in the elections,1 with 57 percent of those surveyed saying they do not believe the next parliament would be effective.

The November 10 parliamentary elections were also held under severe restrictions on election campaigning and in an atmosphere of resentment over the government’s handling of the pandemic and economic frustrations exacerbated by perceptions of widespread corruption. People became more preoccupied with meeting their basic needs rather than voting as a full and lockdown forced businesses to close and many Jordanians lost their jobs and livelihoods. The unemployment rate rose to 23.9 percent in the third quarter of 2020, up from 19.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the Department of Statistics.2 Moreover, the sharp deterioration in government finances, together with sluggish economic growth increased public debt to 105.3 percent of the forecasted GDP by the end of May 2020.3

There is also growing disenchantment with the curbs on public freedoms. The use of emergency that were enforced to battle the coronavirus continue to be seen as stifling criticism.4 Moreover, the crackdown on the Teachers Association5 a few months before the elections and the arrests of protesters and political and

1 33.7% of Jordanians Intend to Participate in the Elections, November 2, 2020. shorturl.at/fvxQ6 2 23.9% Unemployment Rate during the third Quarter of 2020, December 2, 2020. shorturl.at/puKQ4 3 The World Bank in Jordan, Last Updated October 1, 2020. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jordan/overview 4 Covid-19 Response: New Penalties for ‘Causing Panic’ About Pandemic, May 5, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/05/jordan-free-speech-threats-under-covid-19-response 5 Jordan: Arrests, Forced Dispersal at Teachers Protests, August 27, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/27/jordan-arrests-forced-dispersal-teacher-protests Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Jordan’s 2020 Parliamentary Election: Settling for the Status Quo Feb. 2021 2

anticorruption activists in 20196 signaled that space for activism and public freedom continues to shrink further. “Jordan tried to project a democratic image and parliamentary elections gave legitimacy to the government. The government wants to boost its standing in front of donors and the international community. That’s why there was insistence on holding the elections amid the pandemic,” said Amer Sabaileh, a political analyst. “The government wants to show that it made a significant achievement during a difficult time, but in reality, there is no political will to change.”7

The Minister of Political and Parliamentary Affairs Musa Maaytah explained that the constitutional amendments which took place in 2011 stipulate that elections must be held within a period of four months after the legislature was dissolved.8 Despite the amendments, questions were still raised on why the government insisted on conducting the race at a time the country saw a record rise in daily cases,9 while it postponed the elections of several professional associations including the national sports federations that were scheduled for the summer when the coronavirus cases were much less.

One positive outcome over the years has been the establishment of the Independent Elections Committee, which oversees the election process. Even though 69 percent of Jordanians have confidence in the Independent Election Commission,10 the latest elections were seen as one of the least democratic in Jordan’s recent history, according to a report published in the Washington Post. The report said that not only did the pandemic did endanger voters’ safety, it also undercut the election’s integrity. Candidates were uncertain about whether elections would be held and thus whether they should launch their campaigns. And it created new opportunities for corruption and electoral manipulation.11 A press release by the Centre for was issued on February 1, 2020 declaring that it had documented violations including tribal meetings that defied the defense rules that make it illegal for more than 20 people to gather in one place. The press release also stated that some candidates were pressured to withdraw from lists or from the electoral process altogether.12 “Jordanians do not trust the government and parliament. They also do not believe parliament will make any significant changes,” said Oraib Al-Rantawi, the founder and director of the Amman-based Al Quds Center for Political Studies. “Citizens also questioned the integrity and the purpose of elections at this time.”13

Irrelevance of Political Parties?

The biggest number of political parties campaigned for the first time since 1992. In fact, 41 out of 48 political parties ran for elections, with 389 candidates or 23.2 percent of the total number of the contestants, but only 12 party members won including six others affiliated with political parties. The most powerful political bloc -- an Islamic-led coalition called the National Alliance for Reform -- lost five seats compared to the previous election. The leftists and Nationalist groups did not secure any seats. It is important to note that 99 deputies out of 130 are new to the legislative scene but the elections will unlikely bring significant changes or move the country towards democracy.14

Most of the elected parliamentarians are businessmen and deputies affiliated with tribes including 20 retired senior military officers. “It is individualistic, apolitical and service-oriented,” said a former minister. “The voice of opposition is weak.”15 Political parties remain weak and underrepresented. The election law continues to

6 Jordan: New Arrests of Activists, Human Rights Watch, November 28, 2019, Jordan: https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/11/28/jordan-new-arrests-activists 7 Interview with Amer Sabaileh, a political analyst, December 1, 2020 8 Al-Maaytah: Parliament Cannot be Absent over Four Months, September 10, 2020. shorturl.at/dwHW9 9 Jordan’s Stubborn Insistence on “Business As Usual”, November 13, 2020. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/83232 10 33.7% of Jordanians Intend to Participate in the Elections, November 2, 2020, shorturl.at/fvxQ6 11 The Pandemic Compromised Jordan’s Parliamentary Elections, November 20, 2020, shorturl.at/aisC1 12 .Feb 1, 2020 ,الوط لحقوق اﻹسان: جسامة عض اﻻنتهاات عات العملة اﻻنتخابة برمتها 13 Interview with Oraib Al-Rantawi, founder and director general of Al Quds Center for Political Studies, December 6, 2020 14 Interview with Amer Bani Amer, director of Hayat for Civil Society Development (RASED), December 1, 2020 15 Interview with a former minister, December 9, 2020 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Jordan’s 2020 Parliamentary Election: Settling for the Status Quo Feb. 2021 3

favor tribal candidates at the expense of those affiliated with political parties, while voting behavior is associated with tribal links. Amer Bani Amer, the founder and General Director of Al-Hayat Center for Civil Society Development- RASED said: “Around 80 percent of the winning candidates are not affiliated with any political party and therefore, do not have any specific goal because they do not follow any specific ideology.”16

Deputies were elected under the same election law of 2016, which is uncommon in Jordan where electoral laws are either changed or amended with every election. The 2016 law underwent significant changes and introduced the open list proportional representation, intended to increase the representation of political parties in parliament. But in practice, political parties remain marginalized, thanks to the open list system and a method of computing votes that is rather in favour of weaker lists (it is very difficult for a list to gain a second seat in an electoral district). Therefore, this system is not amenable to political parties or strong parliamentary lists that seek a wide representation in parliament, according to an assessment of parliamentary elections conducted by Al-Quds Centre for Political Studies in November 2020.17

Most political parties took part in the elections because the bylaws governing their funding provide financial incentives. For example, a political party that fields six candidates in three voting constituencies receives 20,000 Jordanian Dinars (or 28,000 US dollars).18 Another 15 percent would be added to that amount if women candidates are included or youth under the age of 35. A political party also receives additional financial support if it captures 1 percent of the electoral votes in the country.19

“The political parties' election results were disappointing,” said Oraib Al- Rantawi. “I blame the political parties, but at the same time the political system does not want a strong parliament based on pluralism. There is no will or desire for that.” 20 Critics say the political system in Jordan does not encourage a party system but at the same time political parties have not adapted or changed their discourse. They continue to fail in appealing to the electorate.

The elections saw a significant participation of political parties more than the previous elections, but they did not achieve the victories they were hoping for. The election results underscored the poor organizational capacities of political parties, their fragmentation and the lack of meaningful national party politics and programs. The political parties did not play politics when they should have done so while the election law scatters the ballots. They did not invest in the ABCs of political party politics. They lack the ability to put in place a strategy and an election program. They failed to reach out to their bases.21

Political parties have also suffered due to a ban that had lasted more than three decades. In 1989, parliamentary elections resumed after a 22-year hiatus. In 1992, martial law was officially lifted and political parties were legalized. They participated in the 1993 general elections for the first time since 1956. Still, they continue to struggle for many reasons. Jordanians remain reluctant to form or join political parties over fears of being ostracized from the workplace or in routine bureaucratic procedures. Even students who obtain a Royal favor (in this case a scholarship) to public universities are not allowed to join parties or even participate in political activities. Otherwise, they would risk losing the scholarship. Moreover, the electoral law consistently limits the participation of parties as well. After the Islamists made a strong showing in the 1989 elections, the government adopted a one-man, one-vote election law that replaced a system whereby voters were entitled to as many votes as the parliamentary seats allocated for their district.

16 Interview with Amer Bani Amer, the founder and General Director of Al-Hayat Center for Civil Society Development- RASED, December 1, 2020. 17 General Assessment of Parliamentary Elections 2020 in Jordan, published by Al-Quds Center for Political Studies and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, November 2020. September 15, 2020 rb.gy/9ujmbl ,وزارة الشؤون الساسة: نظام تمل اﻷحزاب الجدد عتمد ع المشاركة اﻻنتخاات 18 19 Ibid 20 Interview with Oraib Al- Rantawi, founder and director general of Al Quds Center for Political Studies, December 6, 2020 21 Interview with Rami Adwan, Jordan Country Representative of the Institute for Democracy, December 12, 2020. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Jordan’s 2020 Parliamentary Election: Settling for the Status Quo Feb. 2021 4

Since then, the election laws were amended and changed, but mostly continue to represent rural conservative districts while urban and Palestinian-dominated areas, which are Islamist strongholds, are underrepresented.

Unequal Representation

The practice of unequal representation (i.e. the ratio of voters per parliamentarian) is not uncommon in the and other democratic countries. In Jordan, however, it is considered one of the main drawbacks of the election law. Voting districts are gerrymandered to favor rural areas over urban areas, which undermines the representation of areas heavily populated by Jordanians of Palestinian origin, who make up a large share of the country’s 10.5 million population. The urban areas are also strongholds for the Muslim Brotherhood, which draws the majority of its support from the Palestinian population. The of districts was also seen as a government tactic to marginalize the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament.

Under the current electoral law, Amman which has a population of 4.4 million and represents 42 percent of the population, has 28 seats in parliament. Zarqa, with a population of 1.5 million or 14.3 percent of the population is represented only by 12 members. Meanwhile, the town of Tafilah, which has a population of nearly 30,000 and represents 1 percent of the population has four seats in parliament. Karak, which has a population of 350,000 or 3.3 percent of the population holds ten seats in parliament. Analysts have repeatedly pointed out to this dichotomy; the disproportional representation of parliamentary seats explains according to some observers why voting has been historically low in Amman and Zarqa. Indeed, in the most recent elections, voting in Amman and Zarqa was significantly lower than the 2016 elections. In Amman’s third constituency, it stood at 11. 7 percent, down from 19.2 in the previous elections, a key indicator of public mistrust in the political process. In Zarqa’s first constituency, it stood at 14.8 percent, down from 22.8 percent.22

“The government justified the low voter turnout due to Covid-19, but in reality, the voter apathy reflects citizens mistrust in parliament and the government. Several polls reveal that many Jordanians remain unconvinced with the electoral process and the democratic path,” said Rami Adwan, Jordan Country Representative of the Netherlands Institute for Democracy.23 However, another critic noted that the gerrymandering of districts boils down to identity politics, mostly intended to curb the representation of the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament. “Identity politics have a key role, it’s the elephant in the room that nobody wants to discuss. Citizens in Amman and Zarqa, mostly inhabited by Jordanians of Palestinian origin, feel they are excluded from the political process.”24

Women Left Behind

Across the country, nearly half of the 4.64 million eligible voters were women, but like the rest of the country, they ran mostly on tribal and family loyalty. Despite an increase in women candidates only 360 out of the 1,674 candidates running were women. The requisite 15 women were elected, down from 20 in the previous parliament. Nevertheless, the increase of women candidates was a reflection of women’s enthusiasm to have a voice and more confidence in their capability to serve.25

The 2016 elections revealed that individuals, rather than lists, end up in parliament since only the top candidate is likely to win. In some cases, members in the list discouraged voters from supporting other candidates in their own list. The election law, therefore, weakened the chances for women to win in 2020 because several male candidates were reluctant to include politically astute females in their list, fearing they would win through direct competition, as a few did in 2016. One analyst considered the sidelining of women candidates by some male candidates as manipulating the system.

22 General Assessment of Parliamentary Elections 2020 in Jordan, published by Al-Quds Center for Political Studies and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, November 2020 23 Interview with Rami Adwan, Jordan Country Representative of the Netherlands Institute for Democracy, December 13, 2020 24 Interview with a political analyst, December 10, 2020 25 Interview with Amer Bani Amer, the founder and General Director of Al-Hayat Center for Civil Society Development- RASED, December 1, 2020. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Jordan’s 2020 Parliamentary Election: Settling for the Status Quo Feb. 2021 5

In 2020, women became a target by male candidates. They considered women candidates a threat, an enemy. They discouraged voters from electing them because they learned in 2016 that women can win through direct competition and not only through the quota system in the list, so they didn’t want the women to succeed and get more votes than them. Others chose women who were virtually unknown, who had no political background or experience. That way, the men could show they had a to fill the quota but she wouldn’t pose a threat to them. Women voters also didn’t cast their ballots.26

Only 26.1 percent out of 46 percent eligible female voters cast their ballot in 2020. There were several explanations to this including general voter apathy, low trust in government, concerns about contracting the coronavirus and women shouldering the bulk of household chores and childcare. “The children were home on election day and the government decided to enforce a four-day curfew after the election results, so some women ended up staying at home while the husband went out to vote. Others were making sure they had enough food to last for four days. They were more concerned with food and supplies than voting.”27 The stereotypical gender roles contributed to the absence of women, in addition to the fear of contracting the coronavirus.

In Amman’s third district, only 11,000 out of 31,000 of eligible female voters cast their ballots while in Amman’s second district only 16 percent of women voted. Polls reveal the majority of those who cast their ballots, do so in favor of tribal members, relatives or a candidate recommended by their spouse.28 Some analysts linked sociopolitical factors, including women’s low participation in the labor market, to political