THE : OLD, NEW INSTABILITIES Giorgio Fruscione Do, C. Quoditia dium hucient. Ur, P. Si pericon senatus et is aa. vivignatque prid di publici factem moltodions prem virmili THE BALKANS: patus et publin tem es ius haleri effrem. Nos consultus hiliam tabem nes? Acit, eorsus, ut videferem hos morei pecur que Founded in 1934, ISPI is OLD, NEW INSTABILITIES an independent think tank alicae audampe ctatum mortanti, consint essenda chuidem A European Region committed to the study of se num ute es condamdit nicepes tistrei tem unum rem et international political and ductam et; nunihilin Itam medo, nondem rebus. But gra? Looking for its Place in the World economic dynamics. Iri consuli, ut C. me estravo cchilnem mac viri, quastrum It is the only Italian Institute re et in se in hinam dic ili poraverdin temulabem ducibun edited by Giorgio Fruscione – and one of the very few in iquondam audactum pero, se issoltum, nequam mo et, introduction by Paolo Magri Europe – to combine research et vivigna, ad cultorum. Dum P. Sp. At fuides dermandam, activities with a significant mihilin gultum faci pro, us, unum urbit? Ublicon tem commitment to training, events, Romnit pari pest prorimis. Satquem nos ta nostratil vid and global risk analysis for pultis num, quonsuliciae nost intus verio vis cem consulicis, companies and institutions. nos intenatiam atum inventi liconsulvit, convoliis me ISPI favours an interdisciplinary and policy-oriented approach perfes confecturiae audemus, Pala quam cumus, obsent, made possible by a research quituam pesis. Am, quam nocae num et L. Ad inatisulic team of over 50 analysts and tam opubliciam achum is. Ute audam am eto termanu an international network of 70 ltorus cone norum pos ad nem sent fina, praet retem inata universities, think tanks, and di facchil istius in viveret auteres conderum dienteatquit research centres. In the ranking venihiliemus liciis Ahaet; horum nihilis egerit; ni consili issued by the University of Pennsylvania, ISPI placed first worldwide as the “Think Tank to Watch in 2020”.

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THE BALKANS:

OLD, NEW INSTABILITIES A European Region Looking for its Place in the World

edited by Giorgio Fruscione © 2020 Ledizioni LediPublishing Via Alamanni, 11 – 20141 Milano – Italy www.ledizioni.it [email protected]

The Balkans: Old, New Instabilities Edited by Giorgio Fruscione First edition: May 2020

Realized with the support of the Policy Planning Unit of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation pursuant to art. 23-bis of Presidential Decree 18/1967

Print ISBN 9788855262477 ePub ISBN 9788855262484 Pdf ISBN 9788855262491 DOI 10.14672/55262477

ISPI. Via Clerici, 5 20121, Milan www.ispionline.it

Catalogue and reprints information: www.ledizioni.it Table of Contents

Introduction Paolo Magri...... 6

1. After the Nineties: A Never-Ending Political Transition Giorgio Fruscione...... 11

2. Europe and the Balkans: The Need for Mutual Integration Nikola Burazer...... 29

3. Making Inroads: Competing Powers in the Balkans Dimitar Bechev...... 48

4. EU, NATO and Beyond: The Security Dynamics of the Western Balkans Katarina Djokic...... 69

5. FDI in the Balkans: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Tena Prelec...... 96

6. The Importance of Social Movements in Western Balkans Chiara Milan...... 114

About the Authors...... 134 Introduction

For the Western Balkans, 2019 was the year of inconclusiveness. It was the umpteenth year without progress in the dialogue between and , one more year of delay in the EU accession process for and , and a year of renewed uncertainty for Bosnia-Herzegovina, a country that remained without a government until December. Western Balkan countries entered 2020 with slim hopes, and the novel coronavirus