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Raffles Medical Group Health Care / Singapore RFMD SP Health Care / Singapore 3 March 2014 Raffles Medical Group Raffles Medical Group Target (SGD): 3.68 Upside: 14.3% RFMD SP 28 Feb price (SGD): 3.22 Initiation: a healthy diagnosis 1 Buy • We see a compelling medium-term earnings growth story: a 2 Outperform (initiation) 2015-18E EPS CAGR of 17.2% versus 9.7% over 2012-15E 3 Hold • RMG’s China expansion opportunity appears under- 4 Underperform appreciated; 2015-18E EPS could rise to 26% 5 Sell • We initiate coverage with an Outperform (2) rating and 6-month target price of SGD3.68 How do we justify our view? could rise to 26% as a result, which ■ Valuation we find appealing. We initiate coverage of RMG with an Outperform (2) rating and 6-month The key issue for investors in RMG DCF-based target price of SGD3.68. would likely centre around Jame Osman valuations – the shares are trading ■ Risks (65) 6321 3092 currently at a 2014E PER of 25.7x, Any delays in its expansion plans [email protected] which is around a 12% discount to would be the key risk to our call. its regional peers. Ramakrishna Maruvada (65) 6499 6543 [email protected] We believe this valuation is justified given the defensive nature of the Share price performance (SGD) (%) company’s business, its strong 3.6 110 ■ Investment case balance sheet (net cash), track record of management execution, 3.4 105 In our view, Raffles Medical Group 3.2 100 (RMG), a leading private healthcare and the relative scarcity of quality 3.1 95 services provider in Singapore, healthcare plays in Singapore. We 2.9 90 offers a compelling medium-term note that Thomson Medical and Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 earnings growth story on the back of Parkway Holdings were de-listed in Raffles Me (LHS) Relative to FSSTI (RHS) its hospital expansion plans in 2011 at much higher PERs – Singapore and planned foray into estimated at 33x and 37x, 12-month range 2.90-3.52 China. respectively. Market cap (USDbn) 1.40 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 0.94 ■ Catalysts Shares outstanding (m) 550 We forecast RMG’s earnings CAGR Major shareholder Raffles Medical Hldgs Pte Ltd. (38.7%) to accelerate from 9.7% in 2012-15 In the coming months, we expect RMG to reveal the nature and scope to 17.2% over 2015-18 on the back of Financial summary (SGD) its recently unveiled plans to expand of its expansion plans in China, Year to 31 Dec 14E 15E 16E its flagship Raffles Hospital and which would help the market better Revenue (m) 384 431 530 develop a specialist medical centre quantify the opportunity involved. Operating profit (m) 80 89 109 Further, we also expect the company Net profit (m) 69 76 95 at Taman Warna. Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.125 0.139 0.172 to announce more details on its EPS change (%) 3.4 10.9 24.1 RMG’s China market potential is Singapore expansion plans (own-use Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (3.6) (6.8) (2.1) perhaps under-appreciated by and tenancy mix; anchor tenants for PER (x) 25.7 23.2 18.7 investors given the preliminary the space that will be leased), which Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.5 1.9 should help validate our forecasts DPS 0.044 0.049 0.060 nature of its plans. Our back-of-the- PBR (x) 3.4 3.1 2.8 envelope calculations suggest that and partly address concerns over EV/EBITDA (x) 19.3 18.0 15.0 the company’s 2015-18E EPS CAGR execution risks. ROE (%) 13.9 14.1 15.9 Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 27 Health Care / Singapore RFMD SP 3 March 2014 Contents A healthy diagnosis ......................................................................................................................... 6 Investment thesis ........................................................................................................................ 6 Growth in Singapore .................................................................................................................... 7 Overseas expansion ................................................................................................................... 10 Medical tourism .......................................................................................................................... 11 Competitive environment .......................................................................................................... 12 Financials and forecasts ............................................................................................................ 15 Valuation .................................................................................................................................... 17 Key investment risks.................................................................................................................. 18 Appendix I – Company background ............................................................................................. 20 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 20 Shareholding structure and management ................................................................................ 21 Appendix II – The Singapore healthcare landscape .................................................................... 23 An overview ............................................................................................................................... 23 - 2 - Health Care / Singapore RFMD SP 3 March 2014 1 Buy How do we justify our view? 2 Outperform (initiation) 3 Hold Growth outlook 4 Underperform Valuation 5 Sell Earnings revisions Growth outlook RMG: earnings-growth trend We expect the completion of the proposed Raffles (%) 20 Hospital extension, as well as the Taman Warna 17.2 development, to contribute strongly to earnings from 18 16 2H16 onward. While we see moderate earnings growth 13.0 prospects in the near term (2009-12 CAGR of 13%; 14 12 2012-15E CAGR of 10%), we believe the company’s 9.7 10 earnings growth is set to accelerate in the medium term 8 (we forecast a 2015-18 EPS CAGR of 17%). 6 4 2 0 2009-12 2012-15E 2015-18E Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts RMG: 12-month forward PER ratio (x) Valuation RMG’s share price has been rerated significantly since 12M forward PER (x) early 2009, as it continued to post solid results in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. We believe 26.0 +2 stdev demand for private healthcare services in Singapore will +1 stdev 21.0 remain healthy amid robust economic growth. We Mean expect the stock to be rerated further over the next 6-12 16.0 months as further details are announced relating to its -1 stdev expansion plans domestically and overseas, which 11.0 -2 stdev should provide a clearer picture of the revenue streams and timelines for these developments. Our 6-month 6.0 target price of SGD3.68 is based on a DCF approach. Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Our target price translates into a 2014E PER and PBR of Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 29.4x and 3.9x respectively, based on our forecasts. Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions 12-month Bloomberg EPS forecast revisions The 2014 and 2015 Bloomberg consensus EPS forecasts 0.18 have seen downward revisions over the past 12 months, 0.17 possibly as management may have been too aggressive in its guidance. 0.16 Our 2014 and 2015 EPS forecasts are about 4-7% lower 0.15 than those of the Bloomberg consensus, mainly because 0.14 we expect space constraints at Raffles Hospital to limit the expansion of services. However, we believe the 0.13 completion of the hospital extension and Taman Warna 2-Oct-13 5-Feb-14 6-Mar-13 4-Dec-13 10-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 8-May-13 17-Apr-13 23-Oct-13 19-Jun-13 15-Jan-14 13-Feb-13 27-Mar-13 21-Aug-13 11-Sep-13 13-Nov-13 25-Dec-13 property in 2H16 will drive growth significantly from 29-May-13 2016E onward. Consensus 2014 EPS Consensus 2015 EPS Source: Bloomberg - 3 - Health Care / Singapore RFMD SP 3 March 2014 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No. of clinics 76.0 79.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 88.0 93.0 98.0 Average bill size growth rate (GP 7.0 1.4 10.3 8.4 4.6 9.0 9.0 5.0 clinic) (%) Average bill size growth rate 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 4.9 2.0 2.0 3.0 (specialist services) (%) Profit and loss (SGDm) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Healthcare services 89 94 103 115 123 142 164 181 Hospital services 130 145 167 194 217 239 265 344 Other Revenue 0 0 2 3 2 3 3 5 Total Revenue 219 239 273 312 341 384 431 530 Other income 13244444 COGS (25) (27) (32) (39) (38) (45) (51) (62) SG&A (126) (139) (158) (182) (202) (228) (257) (314) Other op.expenses (23) (24) (25) (29) (31) (35) (39) (48) Operating profit 45 53 60 66 74 80 89 109 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (0) 0 (0) 0 1 1 (0) 1 Assoc/forex/extraord./others 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 45 53 59 67 95 80 89 110 Tax (7) (8) (9) (9) (10) (11) (12) (15) Min. int./pref. div./others (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Net profit (reported) 38 45 50 57 85 69 76 95 Net profit (adjusted) 38 45 50 57 67 69 76 95 EPS (reported)(SGD) 0.073 0.087 0.095 0.105 0.154 0.125 0.139 0.172 EPS (adjusted)(SGD) 0.073 0.087 0.095 0.105 0.121 0.125 0.139 0.172 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(SGD) 0.073 0.087 0.095 0.105 0.121 0.125 0.139 0.172 DPS (SGD) 0.030 0.035 0.030 0.045 0.050 0.044 0.049 0.060 EBIT 45 53 60 66 74 80 89 109 EBITDA 52 60 67 74 82 88 98 121 Cash flow (SGDm) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
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