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Water Accounting for the Nura-Sarysu River Basin, Kazakhstan

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Water Accounting for the Nura-Sarysu River Basin, Kazakhstan Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project No. 42384-012 October 2020 Knowledge and Innovation Support for ADB's Water Financing Program Kazakhstan: Water Accounting in Nura Sarysu River Basin Prepared by Michailovsky, C., Seyoum, S., Mul, M. 2020. Water Accounting for the Nura-Sarysu River Basin, Kazakhstan. Project report, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, The Netherlands. For Asian Development Bank This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. Water Accounting for the Nura-Sarysu River Basin, Kazakhstan FINAL REPORT Project final report submitted to the Asian Development Bank under the program for Expanding Support to Water Accounting in River Basins and Water Productivity in Irrigation Schemes. Citation: Michailovsky, C., Seyoum, S., Mul, M. 2020. Water Accounting for the Nura-Sarysu River Basin, Kazakhstan. Project report, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, The Netherlands. Cover Image: Lake Tengiz, NASA EXPANDING SUPPORT TO WATER ACCOUNTING IN RIVER BASINS AND WATER PRODUCTIVITY IN IRRIGATION SCHEMES Project final report: Water Accounting for the Nura-Sarysu River Basin, Kazakhstan PREPARED FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK BY IHE Delft Institute for Water Education October 2020 i Contents Contents ........................................................................................................................................................ ii List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................. v Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2 II. Project Background ............................................................................................................................... 3 III. Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 6 A. Step 1 Interception Computation ..................................................................................................... 6 B. Step 2 Soil Moisture Computation .................................................................................................... 7 C. Step 3 Separate ETa into ETgreen and ETblue and update S .................................................................. 8 D. Step 4 Estimation of Water Supply ................................................................................................... 8 E. Step 5 Estimating final soil moisture ................................................................................................. 9 IV. Description of main datasets .............................................................................................................. 10 A. Land Use Land Cover ....................................................................................................................... 10 B. Precipitation .................................................................................................................................... 13 C. Evapotranspiration .......................................................................................................................... 16 D. Total Water Storage Change ........................................................................................................... 17 V. Results ................................................................................................................................................. 19 A. Basic Water Balance from Remote Sensing .................................................................................... 19 B. Water generation and consumption ............................................................................................... 21 C. ET as ETblue/ETgreen and E/T/I ............................................................................................................ 22 D. Basin-scale comparison to irrigated areas from GFSAD LU map .................................................... 26 E. Identification of potentially irrigated areas – Zooming in to ETblue ................................................. 27 VI. Key findings ......................................................................................................................................... 33 VII. References .......................................................................................................................................... 34 ii List of Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank CGLS Copernicus Global Land Service CSR Centre for Space Research E Evaporation ET Evapotranspiration FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations GFZ GeoForschungs Zentrum Potsdam GLDAS Global Land Data Assimilation System GPM Global Precipitation Measurement GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experience GRACE-FO Gravity Recovery and Climate Experience-Follow on I Interception IHE Delft IHE Delft Institute for Water Education IWMI International Water Management Institute JPL Jet Propulsion Laboratory LULC Land Use Land Cover MLU Managed Land Use MWU Managed Water Use NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index P Precipitation PLU Protected Land Use SRTM Shuttle Radar Tomography Mission T Transpiration TA Technical Assistance TWSA Total Water Storage Anomaly ULU Utilized Land Use WA Water Accounting WP Water Productivity WWAP World Water Assessment Program iii List of Figures Figure 1: Water-economic basins of Kazakhstan .......................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: The Nura-Sarysu WEB and its main drainage basins from HydroSHEDS (Lehner et al., 2008). Background: Watershed and Administrative subdivision of Republic Kazakhstan. Green portion is the Nura-Sarysu WEB – georeferenced by the authors. ..................................................................................... 4 Figure 3: Main schematization of the flows and fluxes in the model ........................................................... 6 Figure 4: Land cover map from CGLS .......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 5: Lake Tengiz and protected area from WDPA (2020). Background: Google Satellite Hybrid dataset. ....................................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Management classes in the Nura-Sarysu WEB ............................................................................ 13 Figure 7: Annual precipitation over 2014-2019. Data source: GPM. .......................................................... 14 Figure 8: Mean monthly and yearly P for 2015-2019 ................................................................................. 14 Figure 9: CHIRPS and GPM yearly precipitation averages for 2014-2019 .................................................. 15 Figure 10: Comparison of GPM and CHIRPS datasets in overlapping areas. .............................................. 15 Figure 11: Spatial pattern over growing season, CHIRPS and GPM. ........................................................... 16 Figure 12: Annual evapotranspiration over 2014-2019. Data source: SSEBop. .......................................... 17 Figure 13: Mean monthly and yearly ET for 2015-2019 ............................................................................. 17 Figure 14: Spread of the TWSA estimated form the different GRACE solutions ........................................ 18 Figure 15: Lake Tengiz catchment location. ................................................................................................ 19 Figure 16: Water balance components for drainage to Lake Tengiz .......................................................... 20 Figure 17: Water levels in Lake Tengiz from radar altimetry - source: https://dahiti.dgfi.tum.de/en/240/water-level/ ........................................................................................ 21 Figure 18: Mean monthly water yield during the growing season, Tengiz catchment .............................. 22 Figure 19: Yearly ETblue and ETgreen, Tengiz catchment .......................................................................... 23 Figure 20: ETa split into green and blue ET per WA+ management class................................................... 24 Figure 21: Average yearly and monthly T and ET ....................................................................................... 24 Figure 22: Monthly transpiration during the growing season, Tengiz catchment ..................................... 25 Figure 23: GFSAD map and CGLS cropland extent comparison, Tengiz catchment ..................................
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