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CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE / COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES

JCSP 34 / PCEMI 34

MASTER OF DEFENCE STUDIES (MDS) RESEARCH PROJECT

CAN THE INSURGENCY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BE DEFEATED?

By/par Major Jon Hawkins

This paper was written by a student attending La présente étude a été rédigée par un stagiaire the Canadian Forces College in fulfilment of du Collège des Forces canadiennes pour one of the requirements of the Course of Studies. satisfaire à l'une des exigences du cours. The paper is a scholastic document, and thus L'étude est un document qui se rapporte au contains facts and opinions, which the author cours et contient donc des faits et des opinions alone considered appropriate and correct for que seul l'auteur considère appropriés et the subject. It does not necessarily reflect the convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète pas policy or the opinion of any agency, including nécessairement la politique ou l'opinion d'un the Government of Canada and the Canadian organisme quelconque, y compris le Department of National Defence. This paper gouvernement du Canada et le ministère de la may not be released, quoted or copied, except Défense nationale du Canada. Il est défendu de with the express permission of the Canadian diffuser, de citer ou de reproduire cette étude Department of National Defence. sans la permission expresse du ministère de la Défense nationale.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents i

List of Figures iii

List of Tables iv

Abstract v

Chapter One DEFINING THE DILEMMA 1

Introduction 1 The Classical Insurgency 4 Differentiating between Terrorists and Insurgents 6 Type of insurgency 9 Changing Goals and Mixed Messages 11 Summary 12

Chapter Two WIDER INVOLVEMENT 14

Introduction 14 International Context 14 The Afghan/Pakistan Border (Durand Line of 1893) 19 Summary 22

Chapter Three CULTURAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC 24 CONSIDERATIONS

Introduction 24 Modern Pasthunwali 25 Shari ‘a Law 30 Drugs 37 Education and health 38 Economy 40 Governance 42 Summary 43

Chapter Four HISTORICAL COUNTERINSURGENCIES 45

Introduction 45 Counter Insurgency Operations (Malaya, Kenya, Oman & ) 48 Summary 69

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Chapter Five THE CAMPAIGN PLAN 70

Introduction 70 Information operations 74 Combat operations 75 Train and employ the Afghan security forces 77 Essential services 79 Promote governance 82 Economic pluralism 83 Summary 84

Chapter Six CONCLUSION 86

Bibliography 89 iii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Map of Regional Command areas in Afghanistan 3

Figure 2: Military Unified Commands 15

Figure 3: Regional Ethnic Groups 24

Figure 4: Counterinsurgency Lines of Operation Model 73

iv

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Afghan Population’s View of the Taliban 12

Table 2: Afghan GDP at curr