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Country Report Ghana at a Glance: 2005-06

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Country Report Ghana Ghana at a glance: 2005-06 OVERVIEW The president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and his New Patriotic Party are expected to remain committed to donor-directed policies over the forecast period, although pressure to follow more populist policies is mounting. Economic growth in 2005, at 4.3%, will be robust and broad-based; increased gold production will compensate somewhat for setbacks in agricultural production. In 2006 higher gold and cocoa production, together with a recovery in agriculture, will lift growth to 5.6%. However, the fuel-price increase, high international oil prices, possible utility-tariff increases, food shortages caused by drought and a possible weakening in the currency, will make it difficult to bring inflation under control. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts average inflation of 15.7% in 2005, falling to 12.3% in 2006. Strong remittance inflows will support a narrowing of the current-account deficit from 2.7% of GDP in 2004 to 0.7% of GDP in 2005, and produce a surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2006. Key changes from last month Political outlook • There has been no change to our political outlook. Economic policy outlook • The Bank of Ghana (BoG, the central bank) has introduced a number of reforms to the monetary policy framework. These include lower reserve requirements, which are intended to encourage greater lending to the private sector. Reforms were also made to money market instruments, including changes to repo facilities, to give the BoG more control over money supply growth, and the introduction of BoG bills to separate open market operations from auctions for the public-sector borrowing requirement. Economic forecast • Our forecast for real GDP growth in 2005 has been lowered from 4.8% to 4.3%, following reports that food crop production is expected to be negatively affected by erratic rainfall earlier in the year. Assuming normal weather conditions in 2006, a recovery in agricultural production will drive growth higher to 5.6% (revised upwards from our earlier forecast of 5.2%). August 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1350-7052 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Ghana 1 Contents Ghana 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2005-06 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 9 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 17 Economic policy 21 The domestic economy 21 Economic trends 23 Agriculture 24 Manufacturing 26 Mining 26 Oil and gas 27 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 9 International assumptions summary 12 Forecast summary 21 Inflation, 2004-05 22 Fiscal performance, Jan-May 2005 28 Current account 30 External debt List of figures 12 Gross domestic product 12 Consumer price inflation 29 Inward remittances Country Report August 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 Ghana 3 Ghana August 2005 Summary Outlook for 2005-06 The president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and his New Patriotic Party (NPP) are expected to remain committed to donor-supported policies over the forecast period, but pressure for the government to pursue more populist policies will increase in 2006. Broad-based growth will drive strong rates of economic growth over the forecast period; real GDP is forecast to rise by 4.3% in 2005 and 5.6% in 2006. However, fuel price increases, possible increases to utility tariffs, and food shortages caused by drought will make it difficult to bring inflation into single digits. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts average inflation of 15.7% in 2005, falling to 12.3% in 2006. The political scene The NPP has supported an extension of the vote to the 3m-strong diaspora, which is expected to benefit it at the next election. An indication of the NPP’s current popularity will be evident from a by-election in Greater Accra at the end of August. Mr Kufuor’s reputation could be tarnished if allegations that he abused his position to help his son purchase a hotel next to his home are proved to be true. The Africa Peer Review Mechanism’s report on Ghana has highlighted numerous economic and political strengths and weaknesses. Economic policy The IMF’s third review of Ghana’s performance under its poverty reduction and growth strategy was positive and should lead to donors releasing further financial support. The Bank of Ghana (BoG, the central bank) has continued to reform monetary policy, with the aim of promoting the greater use of indirect policy instruments. It has also reduced reserve requirements. The domestic economy Inflation has fallen for three consecutive months to reach 15.7% in June, but shortages in food production have been identified. A fiscal deficit of 1.6% of GDP was recorded for January-May 2005, confirming that the government has remained committed to fiscal discipline. Producers of agricultural and manufactured goods, notably textiles, have voiced their concern over competition from cheap imports. Alcoa has provided US$30m to restart operations at the Volta Aluminium Company, while the petroleum industry has a new authority to oversee deregulation. Foreign trade and payments New data from the BoG indicate that exports rose by 50% in the first half of 2005. Owing to continued growth in remittances, we now expect only a small current-account deficit, of 0.7% of GDP, in 2005. World Bank data show that external debt rose in 2003, but it may fall significantly in coming years if Ghana is awarded the additional debt relief agreed at the G8 summit in July. Editors: Nicola Prins (editor); David Cowan (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: August 8th 2005 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report August 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 4 Ghana Political structure Official name Republic of Ghana Form of state Unitary republic Legal system A new constitution, based on the US model, was approved by referendum in April 1992 National legislature Parliament; 230 members elected by universal suffrage every four years National elections December 2004 (presidential and parliamentary); next elections due in December 2008 Head of state President, elected by universal suffrage for a maximum of two four-year terms; John Agyekum Kufuor was sworn in on January 7th 2001 for the first time; he secured re- election in December 2004 for a second and final term National government Cabinet, appointed by the president in January 2005 Main political parties New Patriotic Party (NPP), the ruling party; National Democratic Congress (NDC), the main opposition party; other parties include People!s National Convention (PNC), Convention People!s Party (CPP), United Ghana Movement (UGM) and National Reform Party (NRP) President John Agyekum Kufuor Vice-president Aliu Mahama Key ministers Defence Kwame Addo Kufuor Communications & technology Albert Kan Dapaah Education & sports Yaw Osafo-Maafo Energy Mike Ocquaye Finance & economic planning Kwadwo Baah Wiredu Fisheries Galsys Asmah Food & agriculture Ernest Debrah Foreign affairs Nana Akufo-Addo Health Courage Quashigah Interior Pap Owusu Ankomah Land, forestry & mines Dominic Fobih Justice & attorney general Ayikoi Otoo Local government & rural development Charles Bintim
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