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Country Report Ghana at a Glance: 2006-07

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Country Report Ghana at a Glance: 2006-07 Country Report Ghana Ghana at a glance: 2006-07 OVERVIEW During their second term in office the president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and his New Patriotic Party (NPP) government will intensify their focus on the need to deliver a visible improvement in the standard of living of ordinary Ghanaians and on carrying out donor-supported economic reforms. However, the government will struggle to show that its policies have delivered results and may itself face divisions over who will succeed Mr Kufuor as its presidential candidate. Meanwhile, unless the opposition National Democratic Congress was to split decisively in the outlook period, the battle to win the 2008 presidential and legislative elections is likely to be extremely close. On the plus side for the government, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects real GDP growth to remain both relatively strong and broad-based over the outlook period, at 5.5% in 2006 and 5.3% in 2007. Against the background of a stable inflation rate and cedi, this will allow the NPP to campaign on the back of a sound macroeconomic record. Key changes from last month Political outlook • In late April Mr Kufuor implemented an unexpected cabinet reshuffle. This aimed to give the government more purpose in the run-up to the 2008 elections and remove from office some of the main contenders to succeed Mr Kufuor as the NPP!s presidential candidate. However, because the president has retained some contenders in office and failed to take a tough stance against ministers facing corruption allegations, the reshuffle will remain controversial and may not improve the image of the government. Economic policy outlook • There has been no change to our economic policy outlook. Economic forecast • The inflation rate has continued to trend down in 2006, reaching 9.9% in March, the first time it has been in single digits since 1994. However, we expect the fall in inflation to slow significantly during the rest of the year as food and fuel price rises pick up. As a result, we now forecast that inflation will average 10.1% in 2006 (compared to our previous forecast of 13.5%). May 2006 The Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road WC1R 4HQ New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7576 8500 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2006 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1350-7052 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Ghana 1 Contents Ghana 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2006-07 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 13 The political scene 20 Economic policy 21 The domestic economy 21 Economic trends 25 Agriculture 26 Financial and other services 27 Infrastructure 29 Mining 31 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 International assumptions summary 12 Forecast summary 15 Results of the Tamale Central by-election 22 Real GDP growth by sector 23 Inflation data 23 Minimum daily wage 24 Domestic debt 27 GSE all-share index 32 Main exports and oil imports List of figures 12 Gross domestic product 12 Consumer price inflation 21 Nominal and real value of the cedi 25 Donor grants to Ghana Country Report May 2006 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2006 Ghana 3 Ghana May 2006 Summary Outlook for 2006-07 During their second term in office the president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and his New Patriotic Party (NPP) government will intensify their focus on the need to deliver a visible improvement in the standard of living of ordinary Ghanaians and on carrying out donor-supported economic reforms. However, the government will struggle to show that its policies have delivered results and may itself face divisions over who will succeed Mr Kufuor as its presidential candidate. Meanwhile, unless the opposition National Democratic Congress was to split decisively in the outlook period, the battle to win the 2008 presidential and legislative elections is likely to be extremely close. On the plus side for the government, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects real GDP growth to remain both relatively strong and broad-based over the outlook period, which, against the background of a stable inflation rate and cedi, will allow the NPP to campaign on the back of a sound macroeconomic record. The political scene Mr Kufuor has unexpectedly announced a major cabinet reshuffle to try and re- invigorate his government in the final three years of his current term in office. Following the reshuffle, Alan Kyeremanten, has a slight edge in the race to be the NPP!s next presidential candidate. Further details of a major new party have emerged. The president has signed into law the controversial bill to allow Ghanaian’s resident overseas to vote, despite considerable opposition. Economic policy The president has used his state of the nation address to highlight the government!s positive economic record, especially with regard to job creation. However, there have been only limited concrete developments. The domestic economy Provisional data from the Bank of Ghana (BoG, the central bank) have shown that real GDP growth was 5.8% in 2005. Growth was broad-based, but boosted by the cocoa sector, which recorded its third year of very high growth, at an estimated 13.2%. Inflation has continued its downward trend, reaching 9.9% in March, the first time it has been in single digits since May 1999. The government has announced a new initiative to boost the tourism sector with the goal of attracting 1m tourists by 2007. It has also outlined plans to solve the current electricity shortages and indicated that once again it plans to sell off Ghana Telecom. The outlook for gold mining in Ghana remains positive. Foreign trade and payments Fitch IBCA has upgraded Ghana!s long-term foreign currency debt and local currency debt ratings to a B+ (both were previously B-rated). Editors: David Cowan (editor); Pratibha Thaker (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: May 5th 2006 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report May 2006 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2006 4 Ghana Political structure Official name Republic of Ghana Form of state Unitary republic Legal system A new constitution, based on the US model, was approved by referendum in April 1992 National legislature Parliament; 230 members elected by universal suffrage every four years National elections December 2004 (presidential and parliamentary); next elections due in December 2008 Head of state President, elected by universal suffrage for a maximum of two four-year terms; John Agyekum Kufuor was sworn in on January 7th 2001 for the first time; he secured re- election in December 2004 for a second and final term National government Cabinet, appointed by the president in January 2005. Last major reshuffle took place on April 27th 2006 Main political parties New Patriotic Party (NPP), the ruling party; National Democratic Congress (NDC), the main opposition party; other parties include People!s National Convention (PNC), Convention People!s Party (CPP), United Ghana Movement (UGM) and National Reform Party (NRP) President John Agyekum Kufuor Vice-president Aliu Mahama Key ministers Defence Kwame Addo Kufuor Communications & technology Mike Ocquaye Education, science & sports Pap Owusu Ankomah Energy Joseph Kofi Adda Finance & economic planning Kwadwo Baah Wiredu Fisheries Galsys Asmah
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