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DAILY REPORT May 22, 2017

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DAILY REPORT May 22, 2017 Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department Member of DAILY REPORT May 22, 2017 FX RATES EUR mn 125 EUR/RSD 50 45 124 FX rates on domestic market 40 123 Currency Value Previous Change YTD 35 122 30 EUR/RSD 123.0374 123.1040 -0.05% 0.35% 25 USD/RSD 109.9726 110.7648 -0.72% 6.11% 121 20 CHF/RSD 112.7956 113.0120 -0.19% 1.79% 120 15 10 119 GBP/RSD 142.9172 143.4946 -0.40% 0.62% 5 Source: NBS 118 0 Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 8,5 mio EUR at average rate 123, 0569. Turnover on FX market (right axis) Source: NBS International markets Currency Value Previous Change YTD EUR/USD EUR/USD 1.1206 1.1103 0.93% -6.55% 1.12 EUR/CHF 1.0907 1.0880 0.25% -1.74% 1.1 EUR/GBP 0.8596 0.8580 0.19% -5.64% 1.08 GBP/USD 1.3036 1.2938 0.76% 4.87% USD/JPY 111.26 111.49 -0.21% -0.72% 1.06 Source: Bloomberg 1.04 Economic indicators 1.02 Country/ Time Indicator Period Previous Projection Region Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value Key policy rate 4.00% RSD Interest rates 10 Next decision 8.6.2017 Deposit facility 2.50% 9 NBS key rate Lending facility 5.50% 8 Beonia Repo operations (1 week) 2.95% 7 Belibor 3M Source: NBS 6 5 Interbank interest rates - Serbia 4 Value Previous Change 3 BEONIA 2.91% 2.92% -0.01 2 BELIBOR1M 3.34% 3.33% 0.01 BELIBOR3M 3.52% 3.54% -0.02 BELIBOR 6M 3.70% 3.74% -0.04 Source: Reuters Source: NBS Major interest rates EUR Interest rates Value Next decision 0.3 Eurozone (ECB) 0.00% 8.6.2017 0.2 US (Fed) 1.00% 14.6.2017 ECB main rate United Kingdom (BOE) 0.1 0.25% Euribor 3M Switzerland (SNB) -0.75% 0 Source: Bloomberg -0.1 Interbank Interest rates - Europe -0.2 19.5.2017 18.5.2017 Change (bps) -0.3 EONIA -0.360% -0.362% 0.002 EURIBOR1M -0.374% -0.371% -0.003 -0.4 EURIBOR3M -0.331% -0.331% 0.000 EURIBOR6M -0.251% -0.251% 0.000 Source: Bloomberg, EBF Sources: ECB, EBF Note: Values are with 2 days delay Libor Interest rates Interest rate Swap Value Previous Change Value Previous Change Libor 1M (USD) 1.017% 1.010% 0.007 EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING -0.032% -0.057% 0.025 Libor 3M (USD) 1.186% 1.172% 0.015 EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING 0.216% 0.171% 0.045 Libor 6M (USD) 1.415% 1.399% 0.016 EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING 0.829% 0.776% 0.053 Libor 1M (CHF) -0.785% -0.785% 0.000 USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1.621% 1.668% -0.047 Libor 3M (CHF) -0.729% -0.729% 0.000 USD ISDA 5Y FIXING 1.828% 1.833% -0.005 Libor 6M (CHF) -0.663% -0.664% 0.001 USD ISDA 10Y FIXING 2.151% 2.170% -0.019 Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales 2013- present 14.0 RSD Government securities 12.0 Maturity Date Value Previous 3 month 04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 10.0 6 month 02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 8.0 53 week 07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 2 year 16.05.2017 4.65% 4.65% 6.0 3 year 04.05.2017 5.00% 5.00% 4.0 5 year 20.10.2015 6.50% 10.80% 2.0 7 year 17.05.2017 5.60% 5.60% 10 year 21.10.2014 12.99% NBS key NBS key rate 11.02.2016 3y 3m 53w 6m NBS key rate 5y 10y + 0.57% 24 month amortizing rate + 0.45% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency Scheduled auctions for this week Date Instrument Currency Volume bps JP Morgan EMBI Serbia 23.5.2017 2y T-bonds EUR 50,000,000 350 330 310 290 270 250 EUR government securities 230 Maturity Date Value Previous 210 53 week 15.05.2017 0.70% 0.74% 190 2 year 14.02.2017 1.05% 1.07% 170 3 year 22.03.2017 1.89% 1.89% 150 5 year 21.02.2017 2.69% 2.90% 10 year 15.03.2017 4.00% 4.20% Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Source: Public Debt Management Agency Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Serbian Eurobond yields (USD) Serbia Credit rating Moody's S&P Fitch Value Previous UST spread Ba3 BB- BB- Serbia 5y 2017 1.978% 1.966% 1.978% Outlook Stable Positive Stable Serbia 5y 2018 2.500% 2.490% 1.273% Latest update 17.3.2017 16.12.2016 16.12.2016 Serbia 7y 2020 3.356% 3.366% 1.972% Source: Bloomberg Serbia 10y 2021 3.589% 3.594% 1.998% Serbia 20y 2024 6.382% 6.404% Source: Bloomberg Serbian 10-year Eurobond 2021 118 5 Price Yield (right axis) 117 4.8 4.6 116 4.4 115 4.2 114 4 113 3.8 112 3.6 111 3.4 Source: Bloomberg 110 3.2 jul.16 jan.17 jun.16 okt.16 feb.17 apr.17 maj.16 avg.16 sep.16 dec.16 nov.16 mar.17 Source: Bloomberg 2 Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta EQUITIES SERBIA Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD Belex 15 738.95 731.38 1.04% 10.78% Belex line 1,590.60 1,578.99 0.74% 18.28% Turnover 29,523,143 Din. 17,517,795 Din. 68.53% Source: Beogradska berza 239,823 € 142,253 € 68.59% Ratios P / B P / E Belex15 0,86 14,20 BELEX15 Belex line 800 1,800 750 1,600 700 650 1,400 600 1,200 550 500 1,000 maj.15 avg.15 nov.15 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 maj.15 avg.15 nov.15 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 nov.16 feb.17 maj.17 Daily change of Belex 15 members 6.78% 1.79% 1.03% 0.00% 0.06% 0.20% 0.27% 0.30% -0.08% -0.85% -0.53% TGAS KMBN AERO ALFA MTLC SJPT NIIS FITO JESV IMPL ENHL The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Turnover Daily Weekly Company Ticker Price RSD P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization RSD change change ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO ENHL 1,496 23,072,808 6.40% 6.47% 1.94 394.26 0.53 16,353,212,832 Din. NIS AD NOVI SAD NIIS 745 2,836,960 0.24% -0.24% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 121,479,998,000 Din. JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD JESV 4,900 1,156,400 1.03% 1.03% 0.67 5.08 11.62 1,493,123,100 Din. GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD FITO 2,700 729,000 0.29% 0.00% 1.55 9.39 17.60 7,128,000,000 Din. METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC MTLC 1,736 494,760 0.06% 0.90% 1.18 14.70 7.98 3,541,440,000 Din. AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO AERO 1,306 238,998 -0.07% -0.07% 1.79 13.10 14.52 44,781,891,100 Din. KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA KMBN 1,869 186,900 -0.49% 4.30% 0.45 7.54 6.61 31,432,759,764 Din. REVNOST AD NOVI SAD RVST 1,930 173,700 0.00% -19.36% 0.14 102.80 #N/A N/A 9,663,510 Din. IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO IMPL 3,350 120,600 1.62% 1.92% 1.16 11.90 10.27 3,156,661,450 Din. MESSER TEHNOGAS AD TGAS 11,000 110,000 -0.78% -0.92% 0.95 21.67 4.23 11,403,238,000 Din. SOJAPROTEIN AD SJPT 500 82,500 0.19% -2.41% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 7,447,762,000 Din. CRVENKA FABRIKA SECERA AD CRFS 8,750 26,250 23.36% 23.36% 2.79 #N/A N/A -19.14 5,504,835,000 Din. Source: Belex Serbian c-bank expects 3% GDP growth in 2017 - Serbia's central bank, NBS, expects the country's economy to grow by 3.0% in 2017 on the back of labour market recovery, NBS governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said on Friday. Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% in 2018, as structural reforms implemented by the government and improvement in business climate are encouraging economic development, Tabakovic said during the presentation of the Inflation Report for May 2017, according to a issued by NBS. "A key fact regarding economic growth is that the current account deficit was reduced owing to outstanding export results of the Serbian economy, which was also facilitated by the investments made earlier and the recovery of external demand," Tabakovic said. Also, greater product and geographical diversification of exports reduce the dependence on developments in individual markets and in turn makes Serbia’s exports and economic growth sustainable. The current account deficit was reduced to 4.0% of GDP in 2016 and was fully covered by foreign direct investment - a pattern that is likely to continue in the coming period, which is helpful for strengthening the country’s external position, thereby increasing its resilience to external shocks, she added.
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