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World Bank Document Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 58222-YF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM DOCUMENT FOR A PROPOSED POLICY BASED GUARANTEE OF UP TO EUR 300 MILLION (NOT TO EXCEED THE EQUIVALENT OF US$400 MILLION) Public Disclosure Authorized TO REPUBLIC OF SERBIA FOR PRIVATE AND FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICY BASED GUARANTEE January 14, 2011 Public Disclosure Authorized Private and Financial Sectors Development Unit (ECSPF) South East Europe Country Unit (ECCU4) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the Public Disclosure Authorized performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of January 14, 2011) Currency Unit Serbian Dinar RSD 1.00 US$ 0.01 US$ 1.00 RSD 79.81 Metric System ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMS (As applicable, plus others) bp Basis Points CAD Current Account Deficit CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio CPI Consumer Price Index CPS Country Partnership Strategy DB Doing Business DFID UK Department for International Development DIA Deposit Insurance Agency DPL Development Policy Loan EAR European Agency for Reconstruction EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission ECA Europe and Central Asia EPS Elektroprivreda Srbije (Serbia’s national electric power utility) EPP Employment Promotion Project EU European Union EUR Euro FDI Foreign Direct Investments FRL Fiscal Responsibility Law FSAP Financial Sector Assessment Program FX Foreign Exchange FY World Bank Financial Year GDP Gross Domestic Product GoS Government of Serbia IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICA Investment Climate Assessment ICTY International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia ICR Implementation Completion Report IFC International Finance Corporation IFI International Financial Institution IMF International Monetary Fund JSC Joint Stock Company ISR Implementation Status and Results Report KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau LDP Letter of Development Policy MOERD Ministry of Economy and Regional Development MOF Ministry of Finance MOJ Ministry of Justice MOP Material Support to Families (MOP in its Serbian acronym) MOU Memorandum of Understanding NBS National Bank of Serbia NIS Naftna Industrija Srbije (State Oil Company) NPL Non-performing Loans PA Privatization Agency PDMA Public Debt Management Authority PEDPL Public Expenditure Development Policy Loan PER Public Expenditure Review PFDPL Programmatic Private and Financial Development Policy Loan PFM Public Financial Management PFMA Public Financial Management Assessment PFSPBG Private and Financial Sector Policy Based Guarantee PPFDPC Programmatic Private and Financial Development Policy Credit PSN Private Sector Note REER Real Effective Exchange Rate RIA Regulatory Impact Analysis ROA Return On Assets ROE Return On Equity RoS Republic of Serbia RSD Serbian Dinar SAA Stability and Association Agreement SBA Stand-By Arrangement SBRA Serbian Business Registers Agency SDR Special Drawing Rights SECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SOE Socially-Owned Enterprise TA Technical Assistance TF Transition Fund UN United Nations USAID United States Agency for International Development US$ United States Dollar VAT Value Added Tax WEO World Economic Outlook Vice President: Philippe H. Le Houerou Country Director: Jane Armitage Sector Director: Gerardo Corrochano Sector Manager: Lalit Raina Task Team Leader: Aurora Ferrari REPUBLIC OF SERBIA PRIVATE AND FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICY BASED GUARANTEE TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................... 2 A. POLITICAL CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................. 2 B. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................................. 3 C. ELIGIBILITY FOR POLICY-BASED GUARANTEE .......................................................................................... 14 D. RECENT BANKING SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................ 19 III. THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM ................................................................................................. 21 A. ENHANCING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ..................................................................................................... 22 B. STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE IN THE NON-PRIVATE ENTERPRISE SECTOR ............................. 26 C. BUILDING A STABLE AND MORE EFFICIENT FINANCIAL SECTOR ............................................................. 31 IV. BANK SUPPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S STRATEGY ......................................................... 34 A. LINK TO CPS ........................................................................................................................................... 34 B. COLLABORATION WITH THE IMF AND OTHER DONORS .......................................................................... 34 C. RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER BANK OPERATIONS ......................................................................................... 35 D. LESSONS LEARNED .................................................................................................................................. 36 E. ANALYTICAL UNDERPINNINGS ................................................................................................................. 37 V. THE PROPOSED PRIVATE AND FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICY BASED GUARANTEE ........ 38 A. OPERATION DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................................................ 38 B. POLICY AREAS ......................................................................................................................................... 40 C. GUARANTEE INSTRUMENT ....................................................................................................................... 42 VI. OPERATION IMPLEMENTATION .................................................................................................. 44 A. POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACTS .............................................................................................................. 44 B. IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND EVALUATION ............................................................................... 45 C. FIDUCIARY ASPECTS ................................................................................................................................ 46 D. ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ...................................................................................................................... 47 E. RISKS AND RISK MITIGATION .................................................................................................................. 47 ANNEX 1. LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY ..................................................................................... 49 ANNEX 2: PFSPBG POLICY MATRIX ........................................................................................................... 62 ANNEX 3: DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 65 ANNEX 4. IBRD GUARANTEE ........................................................................................................................ 74 ANNEX 5. IMF PROGRAM PRESS RELEASE.............................................................................................. 81 ANNEX 6: TENTATIVE TIMELINE FOR PROCUREMENT AND APPROVAL OF A COMMERCIAL LOAN WITH IBRD GUARANTEE .................................................................................................................. 82 ANNEX 7: COUNTRY AT A GLANCE ........................................................................................................... 83 The Private and Financial Sector Policy Based Guarantee (PFSPBG) was prepared by an IBRD team consisting of Aurora Ferrari (Task Team Leader), Andrej Popovic (ECSPF); Irina Astrakhan (AFCZA); Lewis Hawke (ECSPS), Eugene Gurenko (FPDSN); Nikola Ille (ECSSD); Alexandru Cajocaru, Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi, Dusko Vasiljevic, Marina Wes (ECSPE); Nikolai A. Soubbotin (LEGEM); Nicholay Chistyakov (LOAFC); Gianfranco Bertozzi, Tomas Inge Magnusson, Hiroshi Tsubota (BDM); Neil Pravin Ashar, Thomas A. Duvall (LEGCF); and Xavier Cledan Mandri-Perrott (FEUFS). Aida Japarova and Jasna Vukoje provided support to the team. LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY REPUBLIC OF SERBIA PRIVATE AND FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICY BASED GUARANTEE Borrower Republic of Serbia Implementing The Ministry of Finance (MOF) of the Republic of Serbia will be responsible Agency for overall implementation of the proposed operation. Other key ministries and agencies responsible for implementation of the operation will include: the Ministry of Economy and Regional Development (MOERD), the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), the Privatization Agency (PA), the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), the National Bank of Serbia (NBS),
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