I S S ( THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) U E 04 THE POSSIBLE

ISSUE 04 ( THE ART AND SCIENCE OF ) THE POSSIBLE THE POSSIBLE 3 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE

As engineers and innovators, we spend a lot of time thinking about how to make things work better. But the solutions often lead us to ask much bigger questions.

Take automation and artificial intelligence. We can now program robots to carry out many tasks that previously required human intervention — from analyzing CCTV footage to greeting passengers at airports. It’s often P18 framed in terms of how soon they could replace humans completely. Perhaps a more interesting question is where we should concentrate our precious human resources for P28 greatest benefit.

There are many areas where automation is the best solution for liberating us from repetitive, unfulfilling tasks. And there are others where only human ingenuity, insight, empathy — our ability to just pick up a pencil and conjure new worlds — will do. We will not solve challenges such as THE ART AND SCIENCE OF adapting to climate change or making much denser cities liveable by algorithmically perpetuating the same-old solutions faster.

Our challenge is to find the optimum balance between

P28 technology and the human element. We stand to gain so much, but what can’t we afford to lose?

P44 Tom Smith, WSP

“A lot of people talk about going into almost a meditative state, where they can just focus on the shape, the form, and it opens up new ways of thinking”

Kate Mason, The Big Draw / P44

Editor-in-chief Julie Guppy Editorial consultants Mark Bessoudo, Cover illustration by Aistė Stancikaitė Published by Wordmule © WSP Editor Katie Puckett Fredrik Bergström, Saul Chambers, wordmule.co.uk 1600 René-Lévesque Blvd. W Production editor Nick Jones Jonathan Dickinson, Rowan Dixon, Nicola Design by Supermassive 16th floor Creative director Sam Jenkins Evans, Bridget Kennerley, Matthew Printed by Greenshires Montreal, Quebec the-possible.com Marson, Chris Mead, Greg Milford, Tina H3H 1P9 Millán, Ben O’Connor, Richard Palmer, Canada Dorry Price, Ron Slade, Colin Smith, wsp.com Garald Todd 5 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONTENTS 11.2018

CONNECTED THINKING THE HUMAN FACTOR 26 44 6 44

Why we cannot just design happiness / BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD Mark Bessoudo 7 The ultimate tracking device / Robbie Epsom 8 The digital revolution was supposed to make Diversity is not what it seems / Mo Sarraf 10 drawing skills obsolete. But many designers find Modular housing’s time is now / there’s a magic to pen and paper that computers Narada Golden and Chris Edmonds 12 15 can never replicate New city metrics / Poornima Paidipaty 13 What we really mean by social sustainability / Helena Klintström 15 Agustin Chevez takes a walk … 16 13

SPACES 18 INGENUITY 18 54

DEFENSIVE REALMS ONE THING FOR SURE Our cities are vulnerable to an array of terrorist tactics, from DIY attacks to synthetic viruses. 54 Climate change is happening. The trouble is, we How far do we go to protect ourselves? still don’t know exactly what that means. The built environment must adapt to a future that is both inevitable and unknowable

26 28 THE SMARTEST PLACE I KNOW 48 66 Julie Alexander of Siemens picks a regeneration project that’s too smart to BLANK CANVAS predict the digital future Can three engineers, armed with drones, robot bins and pneumatic tubes, solve the hotel industry’s eternal towel problem?

28 THE FUTURE OF AIRPORTS

Air travel is on the cusp of another golden age, as technology transforms every aspect of aviation. Airports are about to get a lot, lot better … 66 7 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE

#POSTCARDFROMLAOS #GREENOFFICES #HAPPINESS

he first three days of 2018 were anywhere, anytime. To improve wellbeing, T unlike any I had ever experienced. it isn’t enough to work in a beautiful I was in Laos visiting the town of Luang office, live in a walkable neighbourhood, CERTIFICATIONGREEN Prabang, a Unesco World Heritage site have access to healthy food and be close known for its rich urban character and to family and friends. A person must LIFE, THE remarkably well-preserved architectural also cultivate (and continuously renew) a UNIVERSE AND “It isn’t enough EVERYTHING and cultural heritage. As I wandered the certain kind of positive attitude towards to work in a side streets — with their human-scale them. (It’s also why it’s entirely possible, beautiful office” Mark Bessoudo 07 temples, humble homes, cool cafes, though less likely, to have none of these and seamless integration with the local things and yet still flourish.) ecosystem — I was struck by just how This certainly raises many important RESILIENT CITIES good this town made me feel. What I questions relating to urban design and found so striking wasn’t just its visual city building: Is it possible for eudaimonia

THE GOOD LIFE appearance, but also its acoustic ecology, to be engineered? How finely tuned or TRANSPARENCY “If you think about it, “The applications its friendly residents and its simple optimized should we try to make our isolation is what gives us of blockchain cuisine. As others who have visited buildings and cities if wellbeing largely are endless” uniqueness and diversity” Luang Prabang before me have noted, it’s depends on people’s own efforts? Could Agustin Chevez Robbie Epsom 16 08 the kind of singular place that can elicit an approach that integrates both top- THE INVISIBLE

TRACKING this sort of response for no other reason down and bottom-up strategies lead to than just being there. better outcomes? NEW WAYS OF SEEING The experience reminded me of what On the one hand, we could CONNECTED THINKING the acclaimed architect and urban simply incorporate a wider range theorist Christopher Alexander described of both quantitative and qualitative as architecture’s ability to heighten one’s considerations into urban designs, and sense of being in the world. Under ideal IN SEARCH OF rather than use narrowly defined criteria, OVERLAPPING circumstances, Alexander contends, the perhaps we could instead strive for a SPACES built environment could help people “feel “good enough” baseline that allows for their own existence as human beings”; a EUDAIMONIA flexibility over time. Simply providing certain kind of existential experience can people with more adaptive opportunities BEYOND THE COFFEE SHOP arise between building and individual. An ancient town in northern Laos causes — the ability to adjust the position of a It also got me thinking about what we, window blind, for example, or access as designers of the built environment, Mark Bessoudo to reflect on the limits of environmental controls — can greatly AUTOMATION “Social sustainability is “Do we really need every are striving for when we say that our designing for the good life influence their psychological evaluation not something to add on part of the city to be totally ultimate goal is to create “people-centric” of comfort. when there’s extra money” diverse in every aspect?” buildings and cities that improve health On the other hand, we should Helena Klintström Mo Sarraf 15 10 and wellbeing. After all, Luang Prabang external factors — not the external that it can’t be significantly changed by curb our enthusiasm and honestly has been known to achieve just that, factors themselves — which ultimately environmental adjustments alone. acknowledge that while there are plenty BIG DATA and yet the town was never specifically contribute to the good life. This seems to suggest that had I of opportunities to improve wellbeing

MEASURING designed that way. Modern science has come to somewhat stayed in Luang Prabang for much through design interventions, it has INEQUALITY This paradox could perhaps be of a hybrid conclusion. Researchers longer, my initial exuberance at just its limits. Creating a better baseline is SOCIAL MOBILITY explained by our misunderstanding conducting a meta-analysis of the being there probably would have worn a noble pursuit, but eudaimonia isn’t of what wellbeing is in the first place. psychological literature found that off. Had I not made a conscious effort to something that can be fully engineered The Ancient Greeks used the word wellbeing is influenced by the sum continuously renew a positive outlook, I from the outside, no matter how green AFFORDABLE eudaimonia to describe human of three factors: 50% is based on a would have returned to my setpoint. the building or healthy the office. HOUSING flourishing and to explain how people person’s setpoint (their baseline level A similar reaction has been observed It’s clear that the answers are neither could strive to live “the good life”. of happiness); 40% is the result of among people who work in green simple nor obvious. But one thing is Aristotle, for example, believed that intentional activity (actions, thoughts and buildings. Researchers have found that for certain: anyone who visits Luang “Increasingly, we can “Modular building can eudaimonia could be achieved with routines); the remaining 10% is related occupant satisfaction in green-certified Prabang will quickly appreciate the true see how people interact improve social equity” a certain kind of character (or virtue), to external circumstances (surrounding offices is at its peak in the first year and meaning of eudaimonia. in real time” Narada Golden and in addition to external factors such as environment and possessions). then declines over time. (They speculate Poornima Paidipaty Chris Edmonds 13 12 health, wealth and beauty. For the Stoics, This means that wellbeing is modifiable that this could be avoided with better Mark Bessoudo is research manager and however, virtue alone was sufficient; it is and within a person’s control to improve mechanisms for occupant feedback.) sustainability consultant at WSP in Toronto.

Paddy Mills Paddy Portraits a person’s character and attitude towards through intentional activity. It also means The same would be true for anyone, He is also founder of platoforplumbers.com 9 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#BLOCKCHAIN #SUSTAINABLESOURCING #TRANSPARENCY

environmental data about a product was As the technology that sits behind the reported alongside financial data in a cryptocurrencies, blockchain is designed “With blockchain, data suddenly becomes valuable and — the THE MISSING LINK digital ledger, they would be able to see to be unhackable. The combinations exactly where it comes from. Suddenly for the hash process are infinitely ultimate aim — it can be used for decision-making. Businesses Blockchain — the technology behind cryptocurrencies — could hold the key to it becomes valuable and — the ultimate complicated, and because it’s validated and customers will be able to hold supply chains to account” managing complex networks of all kinds, writes Robbie Epsom, from supply chains aim — it can be used for decision- by an entire network, it’s impossible to making. Businesses will be able to hold change something without everyone and energy microgrids to the internet itself their supply chains to account, and in seeing. In principle, the only way to then becomes the digital asset. turn, be held to account by consumers. defraud the system is at the point where There are many other ways that This validation is the missing link for the real-world asset is converted into blockchain could empower new many applications that are otherwise a digital one, because once it’s digital solutions. For example, augmented f a tree falls in a forest and the technology may be the missing link. The a contract as a PDF containing your ensure that the tonne of wood that was possible today. We already have the any change would be seen by everyone reality could help people with sensory I customer isn’t there to see it, how do blockchain is essentially the algorithm payment details, which the recipient then sourced sustainably is the same tonne technology to build a microgrid, for in the network. So I foresee an exciting impairments or reduced mobility to find we know that it’s the same timber that that underpins cryptocurrencies such forwards to someone else. How does that that you ultimately purchase further example, but until now, we didn’t have new niche market for solutions to help their way through cities, using something turns up at a factory or building site far as Bitcoin and Ethereum. But its third party know that the version they down the value chain. It could underpin a a way to administer lots of separate transition real-world assets into digital like Google Glass or earphones away? Businesses pay a premium for a applications are endless. At its core, it is have is the original document? If it was tracking system that verifies a product’s decentralized microgrids and get assets within the blockchain. describing what’s around you. But you tonne of wood with an FSC certificate a decentralized network of digital records sent via a blockchain-type platform, even source data as it moves across a supply them all trading with one another. One example we could learn from is need to be able to trust the information guaranteeing that it has been sourced (or “ledgers”) linked to a particular asset, the slightest change, to a single letter or chain, sending automated alerts about Siemens is collaborating with LO3 the UN’s Kimberley Process, a real-world you’re being given, to know that it’s in a sustainable manner, and consumers whether that be a bitcoin, a tonne of decimal place, would change the digital potential tampering or health and Energy, a New York-based start-up, to certificate scheme intended to stem accurate. The internet has revolutionized are increasingly prepared to pay more timber or a tweet. Every transaction signature of the document and with it safety issues. An electronics company develop microgrids that use blockchain the flow of conflict diamonds. A laser so many industries and has been a for sustainably sourced products. But is stored within the blockchain, its the unique hash generated as part of the purchasing components from a supplier technology to enable local energy trading. signature is inscribed on the diamond huge enabler for so much. But arguably in reality, they can’t go and watch that accuracy guaranteed by the combined blockchain. The person at the end may could verify that the raw materials were This allows for transparent, trackable itself, with a unique code linked to the what it lacks is validation. Anything you tree being cut down or be completely independent verification of the entire not know what has changed, but they do sourced in accordance with conflict and tamper-proof trading of green relevant certificate. It is now trialling the see or read on the internet you have to confident that fraud isn’t committed as it network. Information on the history of know that it has been tampered with. mineral legislation, and at each step energy, without the need for centralized use of blockchain, so that as the diamond assess with a critical eye, and there is moves through the supply chain — that ownership, financial data and anything I believe blockchain will be environmental data could be added to monitoring of multiple participating moves through the supply chain, there no form of real-time validation unless one tonne of genuinely accredited timber else that’s important is assigned to a particularly valuable for helping to meet provide a transparent, accurate picture of systems, which risks slowing trading can be no change to the accompanying everything is audited by a third party. doesn’t become two tonnes somewhere unique signature (known as a “hash”). sustainability goals, which require global the true impact. to the point where it becomes paperwork. The equivalent in the forestry That’s why I believe blockchain will be along the line. If someone alters that information, cooperation, fast action, transparency, A practical early application of unfeasible. This could transform the example would be to tag each piece of the next enabling technology: it validates This is an everyday problem for the unique code no longer works, and better management of resources, and “blockchain for sustainability” could be market for localized energy generation, wood. There are some incredible real- the internet. transparency and sustainability everyone knows that something is trust — all things that blockchain can to create trust in lifecycle assessments. significantly reduce costs and catalyze world technologies coming along, such throughout supply chains, and it’s not right. deliver. In the case of our FSC-certified The problem today is that people are the uptake of renewable energy and as 3D-scanning materials at a molecular Robbie Epsom is a sustainability consultant at just one example where blockchain At a basic level, imagine you email timber, blockchain has the potential to sceptical of the data. But if all the storage technology. level to create a unique 3D code, which WSP in London

P26 11 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#SEGREGATION #OVERLAPPINGSPACES #MULTICULTURALISM

BRIEF ENCOUNTERS

City planners should worry less about making communities diverse, and more about creating ’overlapping spaces’ between them, argues Mo Sarraf

hen we talk about segregation, every single individual: where they live, “overlapping spaces” between those each other to encourage these constant important, unless it leads to segregated interaction. The most obvious pattern of W we immediately think of where they work, how much they earn, areas and others. intercultural negotiations, so being lives. People may not be aware of what Do we really need every part of the city to be totally diverse in movement is transport networks, so they neighbourhoods where there is a what sort of house they have. I’m aiming Nowadays when we talk about different doesn’t necessarily mean being life is like in other areas simply because will have an important impact on social concentration of particular ethnic to use this to question the meaning of bringing people of different cultures strange. Put more simply, overlapping they have never been there, or even been every aspect? Isn’t that a tokenistic way of thinking? patterns too. backgrounds and we identify these segregation, and especially the way that or backgrounds together, we tend to spaces make difference visible. through them on their way to and from Any line that a planner or an architect areas as problematic in some way. But we relate it to ethnicity. talk about building a so-called meeting Often the two terms of separation and home. So those areas are invisible to draws on paper or on a computer will maybe the areas we think of as the According to one of the pioneers place — a cultural space where people segregation are used interchangeably. them and so are the people who live there Maybe we don’t, and maybe it’s not form or structure is a very powerful become a physical thing, capable of most segregated are not actually that of multicultural theory, a society is can come and exchange ideas and But I believe that there are some — people may share a city but be totally even possible. People who share similar means to physically shape the city and separating people or bringing them segregated at all. a “community of communities”. For get to know each other better. This is fundamental differences when it comes invisible to one another. Stockholm could characteristics have always chosen to live reflect society’s ideas. It should reflect together. Physical interventions have My research involves using highly instance, an individual might belong to important and necessary but perhaps to urban planning. Segregation is a social be argued to be an extreme example together — not only grouped by ethnicity democratic values — or at least not always been used for political purposes, granular census and GIS data to find the community of white British, black our expectations of these spaces are too problem because it excludes individuals because it consists of so many different but by income, age, household size, way make the situation worse. We need to to include or exclude. This remains an out what’s really going on, comparing British, Muslim British, female, male, high. Do people who are totally different or groups of people from others, and islands which are topographically of life. That only becomes a problem examine whether a particular structure incredibly powerful idea — as we see cities in Sweden, the UK and Canada. young, old. All of those categories might from each other really go to a public because it affects their way of life and separated, so people who live in one part when the social life of a neighbourhood allows people to avoid others, or whether when leaders talk about building walls I’m studying the UK because that’s overlap one another, so we cannot put space, share a cup of coffee with a total their access to resources. It’s usually might never visit other areas. Whereas in becomes segregated from the rest, with it can bring different people into sight between countries. When we design where the concept of multiculturalism people into a fixed community. In my stranger and then become friends or based on differences like race, age or London, which expanded outwards from no connection at all. of others while they go about their daily cities, we’re not creating a sculpture, originated and also because it’s among research, I’ve been trying to show that start to understand each other better? Do gender, so just because people are the river, you might live in one area but The most difficult question is what we movements. It’s always better not to we’re shaping people’s lives, and we need the most multicultural societies in this understanding of multicultural we want to go to public spaces to have different in some way, they are excluded you’ll have to go through many others can do about this in an urban planning disconnect or exclude neighbourhoods to remember the power that we hold. Europe, and Canada because it is almost theory can be translated exactly to meaningful interactions or encounters from what everyone in an equal society to reach the centre, so the life of those or architectural sense. We need to bear from others, or to separate them from the the only state that still describes itself the urban form and spatial relations. with other people at all, or do we just should have. The question of inclusion is neighbourhoods isn’t invisible to you. in mind this ideal of diversity, to think life of the city. Dr Mo Sarraf is an urban planner at Uppsala as multicultural. Neighbourhoods that might have a want to see them around us without actually a question of justice. The other important question is about it and design for it. For example, The most important thing that happens University in Sweden and a visiting research I’ve chosen Sweden because that’s concentration of particular ethnicities necessarily becoming involved in a social Spatial separation, on the other hand, whether we really need every part of the a homogeneous approach to housing in a city is movement: humans move fellow at the University of Sheffield in the UK. where I’m based, and because data is are not necessarily socially separated interaction? Overlapping spaces bring is not a problem per se. Where different city to be totally diverse in every aspect. design is more likely to lead to a more from one place to another and this is He is working with WSP as a senior adviser on available at a very high resolution about from the rest of the city if there are different communities within sight of groups of people live is not necessarily Isn’t that a tokenistic way of thinking? homogeneous neighbourhood. Urban the first step towards any type of social urban planning projects

P12 13 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#MODULAR #DISRUPTIVETECHNOLOGIES #AFFORDABLEHOUSING #URBANMETRICS #INEQUALITY #BIGDATA

FIVE COMPONENTS OF THE MODULAR FUTURE CITIES BY NUMBERS Factory-built homes could make affordable, healthy city living possible for all, say Narada Golden and Chris Edmonds Historian Poornima Paidipaty studies how the metrics we use to measure society influence the interventions we make. She explains how new data streams could give a more nuanced picture of how cities work, and why they fail 1 2 3 4 5 Modular housing addresses Families could become DIY It takes a developer who’s A collaborative design can be It could mean a fairer deal for a range of urban problems developers willing to embrace risk a more sustainable one the workforce The Possible: How do we change cities Then there are quality of life aspects, like informal settings and slums, or who Whereas increasingly, we can see not by measuring them? how long it takes to commute to work work as traffic policeman or have shops just what exists in a built space but how Modular construction sits at the Modular could address the need Creative solutions are instrumental Modular requires an integrative Although factory-built projects will PP: Measuring the social world is not like or how long you sit in traffic exposed to that are right on the road, have constant people interact in real time. What I think intersection of so many prescient for healthy and affordable housing to navigating risks. Some people design process. To succeed, be disruptive for the construction measuring something like a table, where toxic air. Those things get missed entirely exposure. So you can live in the same is really interesting is that you can take topics right now: from increasing in big cities, not just for the most look at modular as a way to build project teams must collaborate workforce, modular has the nothing much will change as a result. It by economic measures. space, you might have a decent income social data and map urban development, urban density and development on needy but for everybody. It could higher-quality projects, some as an from early on, and this becomes potential to benefit employees changes how we see it, based on what in the sense that you might be a city whether it’s growth or sprawl or brownfield sites, to the demand for allow families who wouldn’t urban density strategy, and others an opportunity to also integrate and improve social equity. It we decide to focus on, how we decide TP: What could these urban metrics worker who has a salary and a pension, shrinkage, as things that happen healthy, sustainable and affordable otherwise be able to buy a home to realize significant potential sustainability, health and resilience offers better health and safety to present that information, what we help to tell us? and yet you might be exposed to toxins simultaneously. We know certain cities housing, to the creation of safe and in New York City, for example, to cost savings. But the promise of strategies into the project. during construction and opens think that information means. It wasn’t PP: I think we can use them as a way that affect your life and the lives of your are growing and other cities are declining equitable green jobs. When the US become their own DIY developers. modular comes with some very real Modular has other sustainability up the industry to non-traditional until the 20th century that we started to of complicating the picture, to show us children in really complicated ways. We and that seems like a very simple picture. Environmental Protection Agency End-users could customize every risks. Most developers are not set benefits. Because materials are employees — in one factory in measure inequality in terms of income. what it means to experience disparity, can now measure some of these things. But even within those cities it’s not like asked WSP’s Built Ecology team aspect of their space by clicking up to pursue this option because it bought at scale and a large part of Phoenix, Arizona, women make up In the 19th century, it largely meant to be at the bottom rung of rising global every bit of them is growing at the same to develop a strategy for affordable through an online portal, and their requires “outside the box” financing the project is constructed in one 40% of the workforce, compared political inequality, but once we produced inequality. Air quality, for example, has TP: How this does come into play in rate. In New York, for instance, there are multifamily modular housing in the new factory-built home could and contracts and they are not able place, waste can be drastically to 9% in the wider industry. the data to look at income, economics extraordinary health consequences. The urban planning and development? certain neighbourhoods that are growing Bay Area, all of these came up in be added to a ten or 20-storey to navigate those risks. Developers reduced. Tighter construction became much more dominant. Over quality of air in India, in internal cities PP: The rise of big data and very very rapidly and others that are wealthy our research. building. Modular could even with an appetite for imaginative tolerances and more control over Narada Golden is vice president time we have come to see the economy especially, is very, very poor. Wealthier complicated new metrics can give but less dynamic. displace the role of the architect or solutions along with higher risk material sourcing can also lead and leads WSP’s Built Ecology team as central to whether a society is residents get to live in spaces where us a very nuanced picture of, for So you can see much more where developer altogether. and reward are better suited to significant improvements in in New York City. Chris Edmonds succeeding or failing. But we can miss they can be some distance from the city instance, growth or sprawl. Earlier people are spending money, which for modular. energy efficiency and indoor is sustainability consultant on the out on all kinds of other ways of thinking traffic. They might be wealthy enough what was measured was really the public transport corridors are really well air quality. Built Ecology team and led the EPA about what makes an equitable society — to run air filters or air conditioners. But built environment, the fixed structures trafficked, how people are getting in and Affordable Modular Housing project issues of gender, race, caste or ethnicity. people who live close to the streets, in and their relationships to each other. out of cities. I used to live in Chicago 15 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#SOCIALVALUE #MAKEITBORING

where the centre looks extraordinarily A lot of urban planning historically has vibrant in the middle of the day because “We have really good data that we didn’t have access to before. missed out on this activity or has just that’s where people go to work and to seen it as a blight on urban life. So every FIVE WAYS TO UNDERSTAND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY shop and to play. And then they go home But that doesn’t mean there aren’t blind spots … It could be once in a while street hawkers need to and the residential neighbourhoods are be cleared out or, at best, formalized. It’s often misinterpreted or dismissed as intangible ­— but there’s nothing fluffy about it, says Helena Klintström not the centre of the city. In the last ten easy to just not count a lot of different kinds of people” Formalization is sometimes a solution years these neighbourhoods have for the because informal markets are very first time developed much more dynamic precarious ones. But it can also mean social spaces in terms of galleries or you are creating new property rights that cafes or events in parks. When you notice might be divided unequally — they might that people have to go quite far from their datasets. Some of it might be done by I think we are just starting to think be patriarchal, so maybe the men in the 1 2 3 4 5 homes to find places to socially interact, private corporations, some of it requires about the inequalities that arise through family can get a claim to that stall or the you can start to see that need. access to data that’s available through the use of big data. One of the biggest income from that stall. One of the ways It’s about a lot more than It breaks down barriers — It should be fully integrated It’s a new field, and we need to We need to consider Facebook and Google. If you don’t have a and most central concerns is who that big data can really help is that we coffee shops social and physical into the planning process harness landowners’ power economics too TP: So it changes the investment case smartphone, you might not be interacting controls the data? Up until very recently, can measure this activity in a way that we for where we put amenities? with these technologies. Especially in the bigger data was held by governments, couldn’t before and think about ways to Ecological sustainability has So we might look at how a Another way of describing social As this is such a new area, our The next thing we need to think PP: I think it does. Once the data starts global south, there are people who might but now we’re in a situation where private help it thrive. been around for quite some time, project could create more jobs sustainability is “social value ambitions are much higher than about is economic sustainability. to show you far more localized pictures, not use them at all. That is also true for corporations hold a lot of data about I think it’s crucial to include such but social sustainability is often for people who are outside the creation”. That makes it more the results that can be seen Everyone talks about it as one can intervene at that level in a way older people in general globally, also in our activity and we don’t yet know what activity in the development of metrics forgotten. Or it’s misinterpreted as labour market or meet the housing tangible, though of course not every physically so far. Most of the something that’s easy to define that is really fruitful. You can see that, some parts of rural America. So it could the long-term implications of that are, themselves. In some Brazilian cities, just being about places for people needs of different groups. We value can be put into numbers. projects we could draw inspiration or on which everyone has the especially as cities grow, the investments be easy to just not count a lot of different because they’re not necessarily guided by there are really interesting experiments to meet and have a coffee. A lot of look at the project physically too, But there are many ways in which from are still on paper. But there same view, but it’s absolutely not. that immediately show rewards are kinds of people. the same legal or ethical strictures that in having community organizing groups municipalities struggle with social so how to create a human scale, we can value social sustainability, are some good examples. In Some people see it as project things within walking distance. So to public institutions would be. centrally involved in collected data but sustainability so we try to make it and orientability, wayfinding and such as improved health, feeling of Sweden, there have been land economics, others as societal gain. have healthcare, schools, parks, libraries TP: So a lot of smartphone data is also in thinking about how to use that more graspable and concrete. One oversight. That’s a crucial part safety, equal participation in public allocation tenders where potential There are a lot of ways to look close by — those kinds of thing make an consumption data, and if you don’t TP: How can we prevent big data data as a political tool, an organizing tool. thing we can do is to link it to the of an environment where people space or voter turnout. Making this developers compete not on at it — who gains from a project, extraordinary impact on wellbeing. consume anything, you get missed? skewing our perceptions of cities? The data is not really useful just as a set UN’s Sustainable Development feel safe. If there’s a barrier — like known is crucial when trying to who can bid the highest, but on for example, or the long-term PP: Yes, so my parents, for instance, don’t PP: There are a couple of different things. of numbers; we need to weave it into our Goals — such as ending a freeway or a forest — we look integrate social sustainability, so who can create the most social economic effects. These concepts TP: What about the potential negative even have a debit card. They mostly pay Ananya Roy, who is a professor at UCLA, narratives. Is this a story of decline? Is poverty and hunger or reducing at how that could be bridged, or it’s not something pink and fluffy or value at the site. I think this is a are not used as much they could consequences of big data? for things with cash in stores. If they has spoken a lot about the importance this a story of how human beings hustle? inequalities — and measure a how we could create activities that something to add on when there’s great way of using a landowner’s be in sustainability research or PP: On the one hand we have really need something they will drive around of building in provisions for informality, Once we build those narratives, that’s project using those indicators. make it less of a barrier. extra money or a particular interest, power to steer new development guidance, but I think it will come in P32 good data that we didn’t have access to to find the store that has it, pay in cash especially in cities in the global south. when the data becomes useful. it should be an integrated part of towards, let´s say, less segregation, the next five to ten years. before. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t and come home. So it’s generational, it’s The International Labour Organisation the urban planning process. Social housing that meets the needs of blind spots. Some is collected through geographical, and it’s people who don’t estimated that 81% of people in South Dr Poornima Paidipaty is Philomathia sustainability maybe needs to get a the population, or housing close Helena Klintström is an urban university work that might require have access to technology who we are Asia work in the informal sector in some Research Fellow in the History Faculty at the bit more boring. to green space if that’s what is sustainability consultant at WSP either volunteers or access to larger probably not seeing. way or other. University of Cambridge missing in the area. in Stockholm 17 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#AI #HUMANPURPOSE #ROBOTSDON’TRAMBLE

that organizations reward, consciously be jetlagged flying from Melbourne to or unconsciously, are those that make “I have tried to meditate so many times, I downloaded an app Sydney, a one-hour flight in the same us more like computers or robots. time zone. But my brain could not make THE HIKER’S GUIDE Organizations are obsessed with and paid the $20, but nothing did what walking next to the road sense of the fact that it would take an efficiency, consistency and reliability, but hour, not 42 days. that’s a transient competitive advantage. for six weeks did to me” There’s a phenomenon we don’t TO HUMANITY You might be more efficient than your acknowledge that has revolutionized human competition, but you won’t be society beyond recognition and that’s our able to compete with AI or algorithms. were rational or you were emotional. Now Some of this goes against the relationship to distance. It’s completely Agustin Chevez is a workplace specialist who has just returned from a It’s not logic that defines us as human, you cannot talk about innovation without paradigm. The concept of beauty is disrupted. When I was on the walk, I’d very long walk away from the office … it’s things that are hard to codify. What talking about passion. But that transition pretty much intrinsic and a lot of the time ask where the nearest place to eat was we should celebrate and nurture is took a lot of time. designers favour beauty over anything and people would say it was five minutes absurdity, irrationality. You could have an else. But beauty can get in the way of away. But that’s by car, it took an hour algorithm that will spit out weird things TP: What about the office itself—­ what meaningful insights. On my walk I went to walk there. We have built cities and The Possible: So why have you just there’s a big push to create a mega- would never happen because creativity later and don’t even recognize it because but eventually you would realize that would an “absurd” space look like? through some beautiful landscapes, but societies based on our ability to drive. spent two months walking all the way region. Does the amount of ideas is a uniquely human trait. But the IBM it loses all context? Even though I wrote there is a pattern of weirdness, whereas AC: We need to stop thinking about the problem is the beauty overpowers In the future, we might create from Melbourne to Sydney? generated by the connectivity between computer Watson beat humans at [game down my thoughts and experiences every humans have a unique way of being space in terms of how it looks. Perhaps you and the only thing that you can think environments that are based not on AC: The walk was just a mechanism for these cities come at the expense of the show] Jeopardy!, which was thought to day, it was difficult to capture the context. absurd beyond a framework or protocol. its most fundamental attribute is its of is “wow” and taking selfies. thinking at a human pace, but at a a mental journey, a pilgrimage. If you diversity of ideas? What kind of ideas require uniquely human attributes. And Evolution is very logical, but revolution “place” component. So you and I might When I was walking along the road computer’s pace. We’re already seeing think about it, isolation is what gives us might you have if you had to walk for 42 after that, it invented a barbecue sauce, TP: Can you share what you is absurd because you’re jumping one both know London, we can describe it and just looking down into this ongoing this in work environments. Work uniqueness and diversity. The reason days to Sydney instead of jumping on a so it came into the area of creativity. discovered? What is the purpose of generation, there’s no continuity. So as a physical space, how it looks, but gravel, I got bored beyond belief. By the processes are not human any more, that Mexico, where I’m from, is different plane? Could temporary isolation create Technology is redefining what properties humanity? perhaps the way for humans to innovate it’s a different place for you than for me third week I was talking to myself out they’re technology-assisted and that from Australia, where I live now, is that an idea with its own unique DNA? That are supposedly human, so I wanted to AC: In all honesty I think I could walk is not through the linear process of because it has different emotional cues, loud, whistling … But eventually I arrived enables us to operate faster. We’re in they evolved separately for many, many was the rationale for this experiment. think about the notion of purpose in a the Earth until I die and never come up logic, which would be superseded by experiences and ultimately meaning. at a sense of clarity and mindfulness that danger of being superseded, but we’re years. The Galapagos Islands have post-cognition era. What happens to us with an answer to that. Perhaps what the computers, but to revolutionize through Perhaps a more relevant question is I have never achieved before. I have tried going to become machines before three distinct species of land iguanas — TP: What kind of idea were you hoping once technology can do white-collar jobs? journey allowed me to do is to reframe absurdity, which is uniquely human. how will we work, how will organizations to meditate so many times, I downloaded machines become human. I’d like to because populations on separate islands to come up with? the question, like in The Hitchhiker’s be governed, what will the rules be? I like an app and paid the $20, but nothing experience what it felt like to work in an didn’t meet, their genes could diverge. I AC: My area of research is work and the TP: So how did it go? Guide to the Galaxy, when the answer to TP: So how could the workplace to use the analogy of a chessboard — you did what walking next to the road for six office of the 1800s, where the activities wondered if the same might be true of workplace, so I’ve been thinking a lot AC: It was amazing! The walk is very easy the meaning of life is 42 — the problem nurture absurdity? can play checkers and chess in the same weeks did to me. were tailored to human speed and ideas. In an increasingly connected world, about the impact of cognitive computing. to describe, in terms of distance, altitude is the question. I’m still trying to digest it, AC: If anything, we have the direct space, but they are completely different human cognition. ideas might be like one successful colony We’ve already been through the and time — it’s very linear. The problem but I do have some insights. opposite right now, so I think we’re games with completely different rules. TP: How did you get back from Sydney of iguanas — there are many of them, but replacement of the body by technology, is how to convey the pilgrimage, which is I think we are going to be replaced by going to go through many iterations. It’s So maybe the office might look exactly to Melbourne? Dr Agustin Chevez is a senior researcher at all very much alike. with robots doing physical work for us. more abstract, but more valuable. Have computers faster than we expect, not only recently that we have recognized the same, but the biggest changes will be AC: I just jumped on the first plane I architect HASSELL, and an adjunct research Melbourne-Sydney is the world’s Now algorithms are replacing the mind. you ever been in a beautiful landscape only because technology is evolving that emotions should be present in the in its policy and its management and its could, and it was the most interesting fellow in the Centre for Design Innovation at second busiest domestic air route, and Designers and creatives thought that and you take a picture, then you look at it very quickly but because the behaviours workplace. Fifty years ago, either you operating system. flight I ever had. I never thought I would Swinburne University of Technology

P68 18 19 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

How can we secure our cities from the threat of terrorism without destroying what makes them liveable?

WORDS BY DEBIKA RAY

errorism is continually evolving. synthetic viruses and new chemical T As cities and organizations adapt, agents — open up new avenues of terrorists innovate — finding new ways vulnerability and methods of attack. to confound and circumvent measures But if the purpose of terrorism is to of detection and defence. In recent create fear and uncertainty, one of the years, this innovation has taken an most potent tactics today is to simply unexpected turn: as security systems grab a knife or jump into a van and have become more advanced, attacks kill indiscriminately: a method that’s have been simplified and ambitions cheap, easy, low risk, high impact and degraded. Not long ago, a terrorist attack practically unpreventable. in a major city would typically involve “It’s pretty much DIY terrorism,” says highly trained groups from named Matt Brittle, head of security, risk and organizations carrying out complex, resilience at WSP in the UK. “It’s effective large-scale operations designed to make — you can do it without raising your maximum symbolic impact. Today, profile — and you don’t need much skill, attacks are commonly low-tech and which makes it hard to know when the unpredictable — carried out by lone next one will crop up.” wolves using improvised weapons and In reality, the risk of being caught up targeted at seemingly random groups in a terrorist attack is minuscule. US of people in crowded locations of no government figures show that in 2016 obvious significance. there were 25,621 fatalities worldwide These tactics may change again. from terrorist attacks, down 13% from the Advances in scientific research — from previous year. Terrorism accounted for drone technology and smart cities to just 0.06% of deaths overall, according

P21 P22 Michelle Thompson Michelle Artwork 21 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

IS SMARTER SAFER? Greater connectivity is leading to new threats

We are heading towards an People typically associate Peter Richards, head of era of automation, where cyber-security threats with security risk management cars drive themselves, drones data theft or the manipulation at WSP in the Middle East, make deliveries, and intelligent of money, but a breach today argues that we are nowhere systems collect vast amounts could have far more tangible near this level of readiness. of data to make decisions results. These will only be “The response just isn’t there about utilities, healthcare and exacerbated as we approach yet, because everyone believes other services. The intention hyper-connectivity. “The big that the cyber element of is to make the city more difference in the future is that security is for IT departments to the Global Health Data Exchange, says Jon Coaffee, professor in urban efficient — but greater there will be direct physical to sort out. But in most just over half as many as were caused by geography at the UK’s University connectivity also creates effects,” Haghdoost says. organizations, IT isn’t about exposure to heat or cold. Arguably, if we of Warwick, who specializes in the weakness and hinders a An attack might turn all the security, it’s about making react to such remote threats by over- impact of terrorism on cities. “It’s about city’s resilience, warns Sina traffic lights red, for example, sure the network works, so the militarizing our cities, we are helping anticipating what might happen and Haghdoost, a senior consultant or overload critical national cyber threat falls into a grey terrorists to meet one of their main putting in place plans to mitigate the at WSP based in Stockholm infrastructure for electricity or area. People aren’t thinking of objectives: to create a climate of fear. In impact. Governments are moving and an expert in smart cities. water — which would quickly it as a holistic problem.” this complex landscape, governments, away from the idea that you can defeat “Every single element you lead to mayhem. “When you’re For people to start taking city planners and designers must strike terrorism, so it’s a matter of ‘when’, add to the chain of a network designing a system, you have it seriously, he fears there will a tricky balance between security and rather than ‘if’ we are attacked. This or smart city — from billions to build in security from the have to be “a major incident”. freedom, between a city that’s safe and necessitates that we prepare and of devices, to the nodes on beginning. You have to think “The next 9/11 will be cyber. vigilant and one that’s liveable, efficient constantly reappraise our capability a network, to the servers about the whole chain. To It will be what we call a ‘black and spontaneous. to deal with a wide array of attack and data, to end users and be sustainable, a security swan’ event — something trajectories.” On a practical level this can vendors — brings a capability system needs to be able to massive that changes the Mitigating impact entail physical responses by designers, and an opportunity, but also learn and adapt using AI and landscape and our perspective. engineers and planners to reduce a vulnerability.” An attack machine learning, so it can It will happen, but will it be Cities’ responses to the terrorist disruption or casualties, as well as better targeting such a complex automatically update itself to banking, power, water? And threat reflect both their risk profile urban management and more efficient, global system, he adds, could resist new methods of attack. afterwards we’ll think, ‘Why

and their culture and politics. The secure and adaptable systems for lead to a very rapid and And, still you will never make it didn’t that present itself to Adamsson Per-Erik Photo tolerance for heavy-handed, visible information sharing, medical intervention, destructive chain reaction. 100% secure.” anybody as a threat before?’” security is, for example, lower in many law enforcement, utilities, transport European countries than in the US and logistics. and the Middle East. But there has While the term resilience has gained is itself wide-ranging and politicized, analysis at the consultancy Risk Advisory. and social safety at WSP in Sweden, been a global shift in rhetoric around huge traction, it has also been criticized points out Peter Richards, head of “Terrorism insurance is essentially and one of the authors of a guide to urban security in the years since the for its vagueness. In the context of security risk management at WSP in the property insurance. In the UK, for hostile vehicle mitigation for Swedish September 2001 attacks on New York, terrorism, it shifts the focus away from Middle East. “Terrorists seek to advance example, it’s very much conceptualized municipalities. “Vehicles are probably Above Sweden’s train network mirrored in the language around the the global political structures that create a political, religious or ideological cause, around the IRA threat: in other words, going to remain the weapon of choice, was hit by a distributed denial development and management of cities. a fertile environment for terrorist activity, usually through acts of violence. But, to a large bomb that entails significant because almost everybody knows how of service (DDoS) attack in Specifically, the term “resilience” is now placing responsibility instead in the give one example, the French Resistance property damage.” Organizations, to drive a vehicle and it will take a long November 2017. The cyber deeply embedded in the urban policy hands of individuals, technocrats and during the Second World War would he says, need to be mindful of other time to retrofit them with geofencing attack brought down the system agenda at transnational organizations, private organizations. The increasing have been classed as a terrorist group consequences — for example, business capability to actively restrict them from that monitors train movements, governments, municipalities and think privatization of public space in many by the occupying government of the day. interruption if there is an attack near their going into certain areas,” he says. “But causing widespread delays tanks. This indicates an acceptance that major cities is one reason why that might There will always be intent to carry out office, even though this may be harder to in ten years, say, drones will be so easily cities are continually subject to stresses, be cause for worry — what is to stop an attack, but we can limit the impact by mitigate and quantify. attainable that they could become the from natural disasters to political private landowners with no democratic reducing the vulnerability of the urban next easiest weapon to use.” instability. Resilient cities can absorb and accountability from abusing their power landscape to these acts of violence.” New threats, new solutions So how does the language of resilience bounce back from those shocks. to exclude and surveil? In many ways, we haven’t yet adapted translate into the urban realm? With “It’s almost a softer and more palatable But this emphasis not on the agents “How our public spaces look and feel tells us a lot about to the new reality of improvised The level and nature of the threat will digital technology, equipment to enhance version of emergency planning, a of terrorism but on the results of their us as a society. What does it say about us if all we can do attacks. This is reflected in the market continue to evolve as technologies such security has improved rapidly. Richards different way of trying to convey that actions does empower designers to make for terrorism insurance, notes Henry as drones become more accessible, says cites the relatively recent development of governments have this under control,” cities safer. The definition of a “terrorist” is retrofit bollards?” Jon Coaffee, University of Warwick Wilkinson, head of intelligence and Sebastian Ihre, a specialist in security video analytics — security cameras with

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“SHOULD WE LOCK ALL THE DOORS?” Designing buildings to withstand biological or chemical attack

If low-tech terrorist attacks are which solids, liquids or gases can terrifying for their randomness, be injected from the top. It was attacks with chemical and biological fabricated off site and dropped agents are terrifying for their through the roof of the building, with incredible potency. And these fears the labatory built around it. Another are justified, according to Leslie was designed to test the efficacy of Gartner, senior vice president at clothing against chemical attacks, WSP in the US, who specializes using a double-walled stainless in creating high-containment steel chamber with a wind tunnel laboratories that experiment with inside. “One of the strategies in the highly infectious diseases. The risk design of a containment chamber of such attacks has increased, he is to create negative pressure to says, because it is now possible to keep things inside. Here, though, the develop synthetic agents, rather wind tunnel created a positive effect than relying on natural ones. which could cause the agent to leak “Within a few years, there may be a out, so we designed a gas-tight Left Intelligent video analytics synthetic agent that’s the equivalent space between the two walls.” technology can flag up of a smallpox,” he warns, adding Such facilities can’t just be patterns such as loitering in that a new wild virus tends to be sealed boxes — in any research real-time, or track suspects’ wspvisual.se discovered every five years, often laboratory, people, products, routes through a city with devastating effect. equipment and information must

It is now common practice to be able to circulate freely. “I often Right Security specialists Visualization design vulnerable buildings to get asked, ‘Why don’t you just can identify and resolve withstand intrusion and blast, but put these facilities underground?’ vulnerabilities at design stage prevention through environmental design Then there’s natural surveillance: the there is still some way to go when But you can’t get people to work by exploring virtual reality by criminologist C Ray Jeffery. Both of idea that crime, or its effects, can be it comes to protecting them from underground, and it creates the simulations. This model shows these drew on the work of urbanist Jane limited if it’s more visible. Vehicle attacks chemical and biological attack. impression of clandestine activities. the new Rosendal district in Jacobs, who critiqued the top-down are less effective if there’s some element Sensors could be faster and there Our role is to create great working Uppsala, Sweden urban planning orthodoxy of 1950s New of warning — when a hijacked lorry was is no agreed strategy for what to environments that have security York and called for more mixed, vibrant driven into crowds in central Stockholm do when an agent is discovered, built in, but aren’t just concrete walls and walkable cities and neighbourhoods. last year, the crowd was alerted to the

Gartner says. “Should we lock all and fences.” Courtesy of IpsotekScreenshots Crime prevention through hazard early and people were able to the doors? Would it be better to Subtle architectural solutions environmental design puts forward three get out of the way, Brittle points out; suck out all of the air or to stop it can help to achieve this triple aim tenets: natural access control, natural five people were killed, but it could have from moving? How do you clean of transparency, ambiance and in-built intelligence that identify certain Using virtual reality and simulation streets and protect the crowd as it starts adds Ihre. “Most people understand that surveillance and territorial reinforcement, been many more. “The things that make up afterwards?” security. An atrium, for example, situations or behaviours through the during the design process can also to build up,” says Brittle. “This is starting these grey spaces are the weak link, but explains Brittle. “If you have a space people feel unsafe are not knowing the Scientists are attempting to can physically separate one part use of algorithms. This has rapidly improve resilience, says Ihre. “You can to be considered in a lot of places where at the same time, nobody wants to claim where the use isn’t defined or reinforced, environment they are in, poor lighting find answers to these questions, of a building from another, while become the norm in surveillance, as run simulations of attack and emergency there are large groups of people.” them as that’s generally connected to you tend to get people adopting it for and the inability to judge or avoid other and the buildings where they work providing a visual connection and such systems prove more effective scenarios to see how the security As the location of attacks becomes financial responsibility.” whatever they want.” Take the front people. If you can see things coming, that might indicate the scale of the allowing in light without being than humans. “We are no longer reliant design holds up, and better understand less obvious and more random, there’s garden of a house: “A fence is territorial gives you opportunity to react. It’s the challenge for the built environment. exposed to public view. “The real on people for reporting,” he says. people’s behaviour too. Humans tend the emerging issue of “grey space”, he What we’ve forgotten reinforcement — you’re saying, ‘This is same principle as walking down narrow Gartner was involved in the design challenge is not to create bunkers, “Algorithms can recognize behaviour to be lazy by nature and they will cut says. The bombing at Manchester Arena my land, don’t sit here and drink a beer.’ alleys — a nice wide street that’s well-lit of a facility to test the dispersion of but to create great, inspirational such as loitering. For example, you can corners, perhaps circumventing the in May 2017 took place not in the arena There are, fortunately, some well- Having a gate is also a level of natural gives us better situational awareness.” chemical agents, which included research facilities that are as secure tell if someone is in an area for more than security design and putting themselves itself but outside it. “The demise of a established approaches that designers access control, because somebody has Measures such as bollards have created a sealed 30ft-high structure into as a bunker.” 20 minutes and if their movements are in danger. Imitating humans and vehicles building probably stops 30cm outside for can draw on, says Brittle. “People have to make a conscious decision to go a visible change in the public realm. In logical. Or a suspicious bag or object in the VR environment can identify a property owner. The pavement doesn’t been looking for years at new ways of through it.” Similarly, to reduce the threat some ways, this sits uncomfortably with left in an airport or train station — if vulnerabilities before it’s even built.” belong to you, it belongs to the council. doing these things, but it’s more about of vehicle attacks, bollards or concrete the spirit of the resilient city, with its “Within a few years, there may be a synthetic agent someone puts it down and moves away As the threat has increased, so has the But it’s on these pavements that attacks relearning what we knew before and barriers have become ubiquitous along implicit suggestion that the continuity for two minutes, it will be recognized scope of design. “Before, you would look are occurring. It’s difficult to understand have forgotten.” There are two concepts pavements. “A lot of work is going into of everyday life is as important as that’s the equivalent of a smallpox” automatically and brought to the at protecting a stadium itself, but now it’s who is responsible for that space.” that emerged in the 1970s: defensible how to break up the straight run — to preventing shocks. “You could make attention of the security operators by necessary to come outside the ground Part of the problem is that taking space theory by architect and city force a vehicle to slow down or swerve, the conceptual leap that resilience for Leslie Gartner, WSP the camera system itself.” by about 200m to control those public control also means taking on liability, planner Oscar Newman, and crime so you have an early warning.” some is about creating business-as- 25 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

“The things that make people WHY WE NEED TO BREAK THE RULES feel unsafe are not knowing Security procedures should leave scope for deviation the environment they are in, Human error is often blamed for Tripathi found that not only did this security breaches, but natural human apply to security too, but also that poor lighting and the inability “deviation” is essential to making safety and security — perceived as systems work, argues Kartikeya “eternal killjoys” — could themselves to judge or avoid other people” Tripathi, a lecturer in security be contradictory. For example, if a Matt Brittle, WSP and crime science at University passenger reported a suspicious item College London. to the driver, they were supposed Tripathi has undertaken research to make an announcement and usual,” says Coaffee. “That feeds into that focuses on decision-making continue at maximum speed to economics: trying to keep the orderly by frontline staff in transport the next stop. But the participating flow of commerce going. But there is environments, such as metro systems drivers feared that an announcement also a social argument. How our public in major cities in Europe and Asia. would cause panic and a stampede spaces look and feel tells us a lot about While safety is a well-established at the next station, while speeding us as a society. What does it say if all we concern, security is a more recent up could make it harder to brake. can do is retrofit bollards into the public addition — with the heightened Many tended to prioritize safety over realm as a default response?” risk of terrorist attacks on transport security, since the chance of a threat Bollards were an obvious solution systems, employees are increasingly turning out to be real was so low. when the main targets were places such relied upon to perform security tasks Not everything can be easily as financial centres, he says, which did that were not traditionally part of classified as a security or safety not used to be overly concerned about their role. task, he adds, so procedures need accessibility and atmosphere. “But Security models typically require to consider mutual dependencies with a public square, it’s foolish to put people to follow standard operating and interactions: “A big element is in horrible militaristic security because procedures imposed from the top, using experience to judge the extent that’s going to put people off going there but Tripathi has found that they quite to which you should modify the as much as it’s going to reassure them often don’t. This shouldn’t necessarily procedures given to you.” it’s safe. We need solutions that are not be regarded as a problem, he says: A similar situation arises all the so overtly brutalistic. Where possible, we “Sometimes deviation is necessary. time among other professions should be designing things that are as A transport network is a complex managing complex risks, he points unobtrusive as possible to try to balance environment where staff are trying to out — surgeons must continually the need for security with good design meet multiple goals. Security is just respond to what’s actually happening practices.” Citizens have often indicated one of them and often an add-on to on the operating table, while pilots that such overt security measures are an their primary role. If front-line staff may have to change course or unwelcome presence, he adds — perhaps were to apply procedures in textbook land suddenly in the interests of

most colourfully in Melbourne and Stock Photo / Alamy Xinhua Photo form, a lot might not work and could safety. The most effective security Milan, where ugly concrete blocks were just create more risk.” procedures leave scope for people to decorated by local artists. features giant “Arsenal” letters at a more of.” But there can be unintended Above When concrete in the gutter. “Then the bigger problem are simple things: if you walk facing the Studies had already shown that react to events in real time and make Water features, hedges at knee critical access point (perhaps less subtly, consequences. “Lining a road with trees bollards were installed is cyclists running into them. Whatever traffic, you have a far better chance of transport staff may cut corners on their own judgements, rather than level, concrete benches and public there are also two huge cannons, part of might be good from a terrorism point of throughout central Melbourne you do, it creates another consideration. getting out of the way.” safety in order to meet punctuality badging every deviation as an error: sculptures can all create obstacles and the club’s insignia, that can withstand view, but bad from a crime prevention to prevent hostile vehicle Everything is a balance — when it comes Ultimately, adds Richards, designing targets. By interviewing drivers “When you know that people will psychological barriers to attacks as a seven-tonne lorry). “These ideas have point of view because it creates shaded attacks, local artists to design, we need to look at all of the a resilient city is largely a matter of and analyzing simulations on a deviate, you can design more realistic well as natural surveillance, without a been out there for many years,” says areas and potential hiding spots, and responded by decorating them threats and find the best solution. And if perception. “Terrorists look for the best metro system in a large Asian city, response procedures.” detrimental impact on the aesthetics of Coaffee, “but they aren’t being utilized as makes street lighting less effective. And with bright fabrics and paint people don’t understand what it’s there return on investment — impact and the public realm. The sculptural bronze much as they could be, largely because when creating lanes with higher footfall, for or how it benefits them, it’s pointless.” publicity — so they will spend a lot of bollards designed by Rogers Partners to they are expensive.” there’s an assumption that there’s more It’s also true — for both cost and time and effort looking for the right secure New York’s financial district have Greenery is a popular and effective safety in groups. For some crimes that practical reasons — that there’s a limit target. They want soft targets that have been heralded as a more humanistic, way to reduce the terrorist threat, says works, but for things like pickpocketing to how much we can secure spaces some sort of ideological or political “Sometimes deviation is necessary. If front-line staff friendly approach, providing a popular Brittle. “If you have substantial trees it doesn’t.” themselves. “Every city or town has an significance. If you have adopted the were to apply procedures in textbook form, a spot for workers to gather. In London, to break up the path of a vehicle, in Another example is the barrier element that is attractive to an attacker correct security posture and you have the ornamental, apparently stonework, many cases the attacker is likely to systems used to prevent cars driving and you can’t protect every street,” says mitigation measures in place, you lot might not work and could just create more risk” balustrades in Whitehall have a steel go somewhere else. That’s something into pedestrians. When pavements are Brittle. “I think there is a realization that won’t eliminate the intent, but it might core within, while the Emirates stadium people say they’d be happy to see crowded, people may spill out and walk people have to do a little bit more. There dissuade them from targeting you.” Kartikeya Tripathi, University College London 27 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

THE SMARTEST PLACE I KNOW JULIE ALEXANDER / SMART CITY ADVISER

“Fawley Waterside is being planned for a digital future. There’s nothing there “IF YOU CAN BUY IT, IT’S today, but it has the potential to be genuinely smart when it’s complete” ALREADY BEHIND THE CURVE” P12

or me, smart is the ability to n many “smart city” projects, ith autonomous vehicles and hat makes Fawley Waterside or a smart project, you need multiple hey’re thinking about what living he team is looking at things like how ith this project, it’s about the F connect people, places and things O people often look at the technology W mobility as a service, we need to W different is that it’s being planned F systems and multiple actors. At T and working environments will T you could use gamification within W potential of the site and the digitally — not only for efficiency, but for available today and base early design assess whether we will need the same for a digital future. There’s nothing there Fawley Waterside, the developer has had look and feel like, and what technologies a local community to improve health excitement around that. This approach better communication and information decisions on that. Then it’s fixed. Once amount of parking, with everyone having today, but it has the potential to be the foresight to get the companies that might be available. Just by asking outcomes or environmental outcomes, does take more time, to network and so people are empowered to make a scheme has planning consent, key their own charging point, or if we just genuinely smart when it’s complete. The are innovating in this space — who are questions like “where’s your R&D money by incentivizing people in particular make the right connections, but it’s an choices. Connecting people allows them features such as roads, accessibility or need spaces for a small number of cars. project [on which WSP is a consultant] is usually responsible for delivering at the going today? Is it going into induction ways and encouraging them to be part investment into having eyes on the future.

to participate. Digitalization acts as the densities are very difficult to change. But With decentralized energy systems, “pro- the regeneration of an old power station end of the process — around the table charging for vehicles or vehicle-to-grid of a connected community. They’re also They’re thinking about what’s going to be foundation of that connectivity. if you can buy a technology today, it’s sumers” will generate electricity from site of 300 acres, near Southampton early on so they can deliver the ultimate connections?”, you know where the looking at how the design can deliver next, rather than just building houses and already behind the innovation curve. By renewables and sell it directly to their on the south coast of England, and the technology-driven connected place. This industry is going and you can begin to long-term health benefits and what sort selling them quickly to meet demand. It’s the time the site is fully developed, it’s no neighbours without the involvement of ambition is to make it the smartest, most way, they can make informed decisions allow for that within your design. of healthcare facilities the residents will about the long-term sustainability of the longer going to be at the cutting edge. a power company. The business models connected city in the UK. It’s also being about what they need to do today to need — not just doctors’ surgeries, but site, and digital sits at the heart of that. Some of the design implications of smart and the technology for peer-to-peer designed to meet the UN Sustainable ensure that they are set up for a fully what kind of connectivity will ensure cities are critical from day one. energy trading don’t need to be in the Development Goals, and to work for the connected, digital future. people can be cared for in their homes, Julie Alexander is director for urban

planning application, but we do need to whole demographic spectrum. and how residents’ health could be development at Siemens, a member of the Illustration,Pentreath Draper Ben Chris allocate land for generation and storage. monitored remotely. core technical group at Fawley Waterside Image Image

P28 28 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

The world is taking to the skies. And every one of those journeys will begin and end at an airport. “There is an ever increasing thirst for travel, whether for business or leisure. We want more from our airports, our aircraft, our journeys, and more for our communities” Tim Morrison, WSP

Great cities of the past just over 4% of the entire European Rise in passenger numbers, past and future [6] were built around ports and economy.[1] railway stations. But in today’s Air freight is essential to modern life, 8,000,000,000 2036 globalized world, airports are but it is in the movement of people that

arguably the most important airports have the greatest effect on 7,000,000,000 link to prosperity. Digital economic development. Researchers communications allow us to talk studying the impact of US airports found to or trade with anyone, at any time, that higher economic output, wages and 6,000,000,000 anywhere in the world. But if we want incomes, the share of college graduates

to actually meet them or receive the and high-tech industry all correlated 5,000,000,000 goods we’ve bought, by far the fastest strongly with the number of passengers way is by plane. per capita, rather than with flights or Aviation is a catalyst for economic cargo.[2] “In today’s knowledge economy, 4,000,000,000 growth, enabling people and businesses far and away, the most precious cargo to reach a global marketplace for [airports] move is people,” said Richard 3,000,000,000 goods and services and to travel 29for Florida at the University of Toronto. work, leisure or education. A study of John Kasarda, author of Aerotropolis, the impact of European airports found describes aviation as the “physical 2,000,000,000 that a 10% increase in a country’s air internet” underpinning global trade. connectivity was associated with a 0.5% As the virtual internet exponentially 1,000,000,000 increase in GDP per capita. Airports increases the connections between and associated aviation activity create people and places, the physical one will 0 and facilitate €675bn in GDP each year, have to keep up … 1971 1981 1991 1991 2011 1977 1973 1975 1987 1979 1997 2017 2017 1983 1985 1989 1995 1993 1993 2013 2013 2015 1999 1999 2001 2007 2005 2003 In 2017, more than 8 billion passengers passed through the world’s airports [3] 2009

P41 By 2040, annual passenger numbers are predicted to surpass 22 billion [4]

Between 2016 and 2040, ACI World predicts average annual growth of 4.5% in passenger traffic, 2.5% in air cargo and 1.9% in aircraft movements [5] 4.5%

Airports: prepare for take-off! With passenger numbers set to double, and technology shaking up everything from retail to 2.5% [1] Economic Impact of European Airports, ACI EUROPE/InterVISTAS, 2015

runways, aviation is soaring into a new golden age [2] 1.9% Richard Florida, Charlotta Mellander, Thomas Holgersson, “Up in the Air: The Role of Airports for Regional Economic Development”, Economics WORDS BY KATIE PUCKETT and Institutions of Innovation 267, Royal Institute of Technology, Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, 2012 [3, 4, 5] ACI World, Annual World Airport Traffic Forecasts, 2017 [6] ICAO/IATA/World Bank DataBank (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

So airports will have to grow too … … and take on rivals near and far.

Between now and 2040, US$2.6tn of investment will be needed in airport infrastructure, “Airports face pricing pressure from airlines, so they can only make money from the passengers. 0.1% of global GDP. [7] But who’s going to pay for it all? That will totally change the concept, and drive them to put passengers at the centre” Frank Lin, WSP

Airports are expensive and financing and full ownership is not always Low-cost airlines growth and market share [11] The expansion of aviation Growth in international passenger traffic by region, 2016-2040 [14] In an increasingly crowded asset-intensive — and most of that sustainable. Even government-owned has given passengers more choice Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East North America Latin America and Caribbean Africa global market, the world’s hubs Average annual growth investment has to happen upfront, and managed airports are increasingly Market share in 2018 5.4% in capacity over last than ever before, and increased are pitted against one other before a single plane can land. required to have a commercial focus. decade competition between airports, 38.8% to attract a fickle, footloose ”Airports are under intense pressure to Private capital needs to generate fair regions and countries. customer base. “Certain locations are expand and to make very large capital returns proportionate to the risk.” Americas 30.9% The global aviation industry operates more convenient, but it’s all about the investments to renew their facilities,” 9.4% on a “hub and spoke” model, so airlines level of service that people experience says Jason Brooks, aviation director at Airports operate in a typically route passengers through hubs when they’re travelling,” says Brooks. WSP. “The pace of change has been very market that is tougher than ever. that serve many destinations, rather than “Transfers are a very different experience Europe 36.3% dramatic over the last decade, and it will Liberalization opened the door to a new, offering point-to-point flights between — most people probably never go outside be even more so over the next.” Projects disruptive breed of carriers such as 19% every single combination. This means 2.2% of the airport.” are becoming larger, as the scale, quality Southwest, Ryanair, Condor, Easyjet and they can serve a greater range of places 6.9% 26% Smaller airports, meanwhile, will and associated infrastructure increases. AirAsia, which now account for around Asia 28% more efficiently, and that passengers compete among themselves to attract And they’re more complex too, because one-third of air traffic worldwide.[9] have a choice of possible routes — and the most direct flights and be the best- 8.4% the building work must be completed To keep fares low, they offer a no-frills places to make their connection. served gateway to their region. without interrupting airport operations. service and demand that airports do the Annual departing seats Annual departing seats Year expected to The biggest hubs were traditionally 17.9% In a global beauty contest, they all need same. Traditional airlines have had to 2009 (millions) 2018 (millions) reach 50% of market in the US and Europe, but a new breed something to set them apart. They may be essential follow suit to compete. So airports’ core Americas of ambitious mega-hubs has come31 infrastructure, but airports aeronautical activities have become less 2045 online across the Middle East and also have to make money. With profitable, and they are more dependent Asia. The global pattern of air traffic investment has come a greater emphasis on other sources of income. is shifting eastwards, as population on profitability and returns. Until relatively growth and prosperity is swelling the Heading east: top 20 busiest hubs (change in rank since 2012) [15] Changing aviation market recently, nearly all major commercial To stay in business, Europe numbers travelling for work and the shares over time [16] 2027 Longitude airports were government-owned airports need to keep passengers middle classes who can afford to fly for and operated. The UK was the first to streaming through their departure leisure in countries such as China, India 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 00 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 privatize its airports authority in the gates and through their shops, and Indonesia. 1 (‑)Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta 2 (+7) Beijing Capital Passenger Air cargo Aircraft mid-1980s, and since then, deregulation restaurants and bars. We may be By 2022, passenger traffic in emerging 3 (+24) Dubai traffic movements has led to a proliferation of different paying less for plane tickets, but one Asia 2030 economies will overtake advanced 5 (-)(-) Los Angeles 4 (-)(-) Haneda ownership and management models. way or the other, we’ll be paying more for economies. By 2040, airports in 6 (-4)(-4) O’Hare 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 In 2017, 51 of the busiest 100 airports bigger, better airports. emerging economies will handle 61.6% of 7 (-4)(-4) Heathrow 8 (+6) Hong Kong US China US US US US 9 (+31) Shanghai Pudong had some private sector participation, passengers — 10 billion more each year 10 (-4)(-4) Paris-Charles de Gaulle 21.5% 18.2% 26.8% 19.4% 30.7% 21.2% [13] five more than in 2016. Of the busiest = 10 million seats they do today. 11 (+1)(+1) Amsterdam Schiphol 500 airports, 39% had private sector 12 (-5)(-5) Dallas Fort Worth 13 (+26) Guangzhou Baiyun China US China China China China participation, a one percentage point 14 (-6)(-6) Frankfurt increase on 2016.[8] 15 (+38) Istanbul Atatürk 13.2% 13.9% 13.7% 15.4% 10.1% 13.4% (+35) Indira Gandhi “The fundamental motive for airport Two-fifthsof airport SMALL COMFORTS 16 17 (+16) Soekarno-Hatta privatizations is to finance upgrades revenues come from Two-thirds of airports operate at a net loss — typically the very smallest Japan India Japan UAE France France 18 (+1) Singapore Changi [7] G20 Global Infrastructure Outlook [8] Policy or expansion that states are unable non-aeronautical activities, 20 (-9)(-9) Denver 19 (+18) Incheon 3.8% 6.4% 5.1% 5.6% 4.7% 5.0% to pay for,” says Stefano Baronci, such as food and retail Some 92% of loss-making airports handle fewer than 1 million passengers Brief: Airport ownership, economic regulation and director of economics at Airports concessions, car parking a year.[12] But if they weren’t there, the loss to the communities they serve would financial performance, ACI World [9] STATFOR, Council International (ACI) World, the and advertising. For some be far greater. “A small region with few inhabitants may not generate sufficient EUROCONTROL [10] Airport Economics 2018, ACI international organization that represents airports, the proportion is passenger flows for an airport to be profitable,” says Mattias Frithiof, strategy World [11] anna.aero/OAG [12] Policy Brief: Airport airports. “In an economic climate much higher [10] consultant at WSP, who has studied the viability of regional airports for Swedish networks and the sustainability of small airports, ACI “It is an extremely competitive marketplace and passengers can vote with their feet. where states are increasingly cutting municipalities. “But if you lose it, you lose extremely vital accessibility and you can World [13, 14, 16] ACI World, Annual World Airport Traffic expenditure to reduce debt, government lose whatever business community or employers that you do have.” Forecasts, 2017 [15] ACI World Airports neglect passenger experience at their peril” Andy Thomas, Grimshaw (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

The best security experience is one Facial recognition and intelligent vacuum cleaners: you don’t know you’ve had. Welcome to the automated airport. “It’s about making it as seamless and easy as possible, using AI or biometric screening, so that people “When you go to the airport in 2025, there probably won’t be any people serving you. are hardly aware they’ve been through security” Antoinette Nassopoulos-Erickson, Foster + Partners There will be robots instead” Frank Lin, WSP

Even the most frequent known as a smartphone. Greater data You won’t have to worry about More and more elements of a In the future, technology Smart service flyers admit that air travel can be collection and analysis will be used to that suitcase either. “Uber and Lyft passengers’ journey have been relocated will underpin every aspect of stressful. “It’s viewed with a certain screen people and track their progress have revolutionized what it means to outside the airport — it’s possible to the passenger experience and The new Terminal 3 at degree of glamour, but for most people through the terminal building and on to take a car service or a taxi to the airport,” check-in and buy duty free before you operations in the terminal and on Taoyuan International it’s unsettling,” says Robert Chicas, the plane. says Chicas. “It’s pretty clear that there’s arrive at the airport, and baggage is likely the airfield.Tailored information will Airport in Taiwan, designed director of aviation and transportation at “All of the separate processes that going to be a similar revolution in how to go the same way. Passengers might be pushed to passenger smartphones, by Rogers Stirk Harbour HOK. ”You don’t know how long it’s going passengers are filtered through baggage goes from point A to point drop their suitcase downtown before from the best route through the airport to + Partners, will have an to take to get to the airport or how long it nowadays — check-in, immigration, B. Rather than travellers taking their continuing to the airport unencumbered, the least crowded seating areas, as well “integrated passenger self- will take to go through security. You’re not security, boarding — will be much more bags to the airport and waiting in line, or it might be collected by an as offers from retailers, restaurants and service programme”, where sure whether you’ll be permitted to carry integrated in future,” says Jelmer van der the baggage handling process will be autonomous vehicle from their homes on bars. This will have profound implications passengers will be able to your bags on or whether you’ll have to Meer, director of airport civil engineering completely streamlined.” the morning of their flight. for wayfinding — and for the giant do everything themselves check them. You don’t know if your flight at Netherlands Airport Consultants banks of signage that dominate airport using a smartphone, or with is going to be on time.” (NACO). “You’ll go through one process interiors. Why would we need signs when the help of friendly robots, Much of this is down to heightened and all the others will automatically run everything we need to know is on our using facial recognition security measures: the biggest drag in the background without you noticing.” phone, and we can simply touch any wall and natural language on the airport process, and the most Frequent flyers who are well known for an instant, personalized update?33processing. “You will be disruptive element for how airports look to airports, airlines and immigration able to speak to them, and and function. The first were introduced services could have a “trusted passenger” The airport workforce they will help you to handle in the early 1970s in response to the status, so they go through an even will be much smaller, and baggage or book flights,” threat of hijacking, but it’s since the quicker, streamlined process. “There will concentrated in customer-facing says Frank Lin, WSP general terrorist attacks on the US in September be a lot of focus on using data to predict roles. Robots are already taking manager in Taiwan, who is 2001 that security has become such a human behaviour and to find out their their first tentative steps to welcome leading the ICT design. dominant feature of airport operations. preferences and how to cater for them.” passengers, answer their questions, [19] This is not necessarily far away, says escort them to gates, and clean up after There is no question of van der Meer. “There is a lot to gain by them. Fitted with touchscreens, cameras It’s on the airfield that transport needs to be met by a much relaxing security. But we aren’t far off optimizing how we use the infrastructure and rapidly improving algorithms — and automation is really coming into smaller fleet of vehicles. the next best thing: making it invisible. we already have, but it very much [18] speaking multiple languages — they will its own. “The airfield is a dangerous Rotterdam The Hague in the Advances in biometrics, facial recognition depends on the willingness of countries take your drinks order at Oakland Airport, and highly controlled environment,” says Netherlands is launching an autonomous and scanning cameras that detect and government bodies to work together. or dance for you in San Jose. At Geneva, Brooks. “Instead of putting people out baggage handling system that replaces hidden objects will allow passengers to That will always be a big bottleneck. Leo the bag-drop robot will print your tag there to go and get bags, refuel planes or fixed conveyors and sorting systems be identified and cleared to fly while they Security services, immigration, aviation and take your suitcase at the taxi drop- load meals, that will be readily automated — each vehicle carries a single piece of are walking through the terminal. And it police, airlines and airports will all need LAGUARDIA’S TERMINAL CURE off. Robots do more than schmoozing. At pretty quickly.” Airports are also freer to baggage and determines the optimal helps that almost every passenger now to collaborate, rely on each other and Enhanced security has been extremely difficult for older airports to accommodate. “The Incheon, a cleaning robot with cameras, experiment with autonomous vehicles route through the airport. carries a tracking device — otherwise share data.” evolution and unexpected consequences of today’s security protocols were simply never light sensors and bumpers learns which (AVs) because they’re not governed by Norway’s Fagernes Airport has anticipated,” says Chicas. “Airport terminals that pre-date security either function very areas need vacuuming most frequently. the same regulations as public highways. become the first to use self-driving poorly or they’ve been replaced. The US is littered with airport terminals built in the 1950s Shenzhen’s Bao’an security “Anbot” takes snowploughs, each able to clear or early 60s that have failed to adapt.” One airport of this vintage is New York’s LaGuardia, pictures of passengers and sends them At Charles de Gaulle in Paris, 357,500m3 in one hour. 70% of travellers are prepared to where HOK and WSP have designed the new 35-gate, 1.3 million ft2 Central Terminal B, set for analysis, and is fitted with a taser. driverless shuttles are ferrying airport Airport operator Ferrovial has trialled share their personal information to more than double its capacity. The existing terminal was built in 1964 to accommodate employees on an intelligent road drones to carry out airfield inspections for a quicker airport experience. 8 million passengers a year, but now serves 15 million. The vision is to restore LaGuardia [17] IATA 2017 Global Passenger Survey [18] LaGuardia network. at Southampton Airport in the UK. 64% would prefer to use as a “unified airport”, rebuilding outdated infrastructure, streamlining passenger flows and airport, Amy Cicconi/Alamy Stock Photo [19] Rogers London Gatwick is experimenting Unmanned aerial vehicles can cover large biometric identification [17] creating an exceptional traveller experience, says Chicas. “This is a very good example of Stirk Harbour + Partners [20] Airport cleaning robot at with electric AVs to move staff between areas quicker than humans, capturing the type of terminal that the industry needs as we move into the 21st century.” Incheon International Airport, LG Electronics [20] locations on the airfield, allowing images and video in high resolution.

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ROOFS OVER THE UNKNOWN Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Changing tech will require flexible, expansive spaces The changing shape of aircraft. It may be several decades before today’s disruptive innovations become the norm. But when they do, the airports we’re designing now will still be around and they’ll have to accommodate them. “There really is no limit to what is possible over the next 100 to 200 years. When we’re talking about Airport buildings typically have a design life of at least 40 years and take a decade to deliver. That’s why the single most important aviation, our wildest imaginations need to be taken seriously” Robert Chicas, HOK feature of a new airport is flexibility — which means long spans with few columns, so the structure doesn’t interrupt the floor plates and they can be easily reconfigured. Contemporary airports are, more than anything else, capacious roof structures soaring over spaces The technology that will The world’s longest flights are getting longer [25]… with as few fixed elements as possible. have the greatest impact on “We sit on the cusp of some really fundamental shifts in the way airports is aircraft themselves. that airports are operated and the way that passengers experience “Currently we are facilitating landing, 1. Singapore Airlines: New York to Singapore 2. Qatar Airways: Auckland to Doha them,” says Andy Thomas, partner at Grimshaw. “As so much of take-off and parking of aircraft that have 9,500 miles | 18h45 9,032 miles | 18h05 this change is unknown, there’s a limit to how much we can design essentially been the same for the last 70 Launched October 2018 Launched February 2017 and plan for it now, so we need strategies that will allow the airport years: a flying cylinder with wings and a to evolve over the next 30 to 40 years. Those that don’t will slowly jet engine,” says Jelmer van der Meer at 3. Qantas: Perth to London 9,010 miles | 17h20 decline and ultimately cease to be fit for purpose.” NACO. “But everything that’s happening Launched March 2018 [21] in the car industry will happen at some

point in aeronautics. Aircraft will start 4. Emirates: Auckland to Dubai using hybrid type engines, maybe even 8,824 miles | 17h05 CLEAN, GREEN, RUN BY MACHINES electrical or solar power.” Launched March 2016 Aerospace companies are under A carbon neutral future for airports pressure to innovate: from 2019, 35aircraft operators will have to report their carbon Civil aviation is responsible for 2% of global man-made carbon In the ten years since Airports Council International launched the Airport Carbon emissions and, from 2021, pay to offset emissions, and the sector has committed to carbon-neutral Accreditation programme, administered by WSP from the outset, 249 airports in 68 countries on them. They also face competition from [22] growth from 2020. Airports account for a relatively small every continent have been certified, representing 43.3% of global air traffic. So far, 48 have reached disruptors such as Elon Musk’s Space X 5. United: Los Angeles to Singapore proportion, but they still have plenty of scope to improve — the highest level, which means they have reduced their direct emissions as far as possible and and Google’s Planetary Ventures. In 8,770 miles | 17h50 Launched October 2017 WSP found that one UK airport operator could cut its annual offset any that remain. The goal is for 100 airports to be carbon neutral by 2030.[23] 2016, a KPMG survey of aerospace utility costs by £2bn. and defence manufacturers found that % of passenger traffic covered “To become carbon neutral, we often just have to do the 63.3% investment in R&D was set to “skyrocket”, right thing very well,” says Tim Morrison, aviation director Airports in the ACA scheme Carbon neutral airports with 45% intending to spend more than Morrison, “and aircraft manufacturers wingspan for more efficient flight but can Europe at WSP. “We know what to do, the science hasn’t changed. 136 39 6% of revenues on research.[24] are spending tens of billions a year on park up at smaller gates. Airports have It’s inexcusable not to design and implement sustainable Jim Heidmann, manager of NASA’s alternative propulsion — not just biofuels already had to adapt to accommodate solutions.” Building performance can be optimized by 35.5% Advanced Air Transport Technology and mixing up various fuels to make supersized Airbus A380s, but this could analyzing the thermal properties of the envelope, reducing the Project, has described this as a “tipping them leaner and greener, but actually enable them to shrink down again. Asia-Pacific 47 6 energy demands of the operations inside, and using renewable point” for commercial aviation: “We completely changing the technology.” Further off and even more radical technologies to provide the residual demand for heat, cooling are exploring and developing game- Technologies developed for the would be vertical take-off and landing, 44.5% and power. With their large roofs and even larger pavements, changing technologies and concepts military and space exploration will also or VTOL. In 2016, Boeing filed a patent airports have ample opportunity to harvest rainwater and North America 39 1 for aircraft and propulsion systems that find commercial applications, such as for a VTOL passenger plane for up to Dallas Fort Worth generate their own clean energy on-site. In India, Cochin can dramatically improve efficiency and “hypersonic” flight at more than five 100 passengers; earlier this year, Airbus International is the world’s first solar-powered airport, with 45 15.8% reduce environmental impact.” times the speed of sound. Earlier this completed the first full-scale test flights acres of solar PV panels. In the less sunny UK, Gatwick also Latin America year, Chinese researchers unveiled for Vahana, an all-electric self-piloting 17 1 has a solar array, complemented by a unique biomass system and Caribbean Galapagos Aircraft will become a hypersonic jet that could whizz 50 VTOL aircraft that can carry a single Ecological Airport Each new generation of passenger. “If aircraft could take off for disposing of aircraft waste to generate heat and electrical lighter, more efficient, cleaner and passengers from Beijing to New York in aircraft is on average 20% more 30.4% power, while reducing off-site disposal of contaminated waste. quieter. Manufacturers are exploring just two hours. vertically,” says Morrison, “then all of a fuel-efficient than the one it Airports could also help aircraft operators to meet their own 1 new materials and more aerodynamic Less radical for passengers but massive sudden, rather than needing a plot of replaces. Over the next decade, Africa 10 Félix-Houphouët- commitment to carbon neutrality. WSP is advising Seattle- Boigny (Abidjan) structures, electric propulsion and energy for airports will be the retractable wing. land a few miles across, it could be a airlines will invest US$1.3tn in new planes [26] Tacoma on the infrastructure it will need to offer a reliable [21] Queen Alia International Airport by Foster + Partners, Nigel Young [22] IATA storage. “We’re already burning a fraction Boeing’s 777X is the first passenger plane fraction of the size. You could start to use supply of biofuels on-site — with the potential to cut aircraft [23] airportco2.org [24] Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook 2016, of the jet fuel per passenger kilometre to feature wing tips that fold in while it’s building rooftops or transport hubs, such emissions by 25%. Forbes Insights [25] BBC and other sources [26] IATA than we used to,” says WSP’s Tim on the ground, so it has an extra-wide as stations or car parks.” 37 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

Heathrow 2030: Sustainability, saunas and very little signage. Expansion programme director Phil Wilbraham explains how the UK’s biggest airport intends to double passengers while creating a more personal service

You don’t embark lightly on a £14bn construction project on a constrained site next to one of the world’s busiest airports. But Heathrow has no choice if it is to remain a hub of choice in an increasingly crowded market — it has been operating at close to full capacity for a decade. With a long-awaited third runway just given parliamentary approval, Heathrow will be able to boost annual passenger numbers from 78 million to 130 million and add 40 new long-haul routes, says Phil Wilbraham, expansion programme director. “It’s so we can continue to connect Britain to where the growth 37 [28] is in the world. If we don’t take this opportunity, it will be very difficult for a two-runway airport to grow beyond HAMAD: YOUNG, DELUXE AND DISRUPTIVE 85-90 million passengers.” It only opened in 2014, but it’s already challenging established hubs That growth is also dependent on Heathrow continuing to meet Ten years ago, just over 5 million issues. The airport’s app already acts passengers’ growing expectations, people a year passed through Qatar’s as shopping directory, e-commerce and Wilbraham is well aware of the Doha International Airport; today, its platform and routefinder, but Al Meer competition it faces from hubs elsewhere successor, Hamad International, serves foresees augmented and virtual reality in Europe and in the Middle East. “I think 30 million, with a planned rise to over playing a greater role, for passengers it’s about providing a more individualized [27] 50 million for the 2022 World Cup. In and staff. “It can enhance wayfinding service. In the past we have tended to 2018, it was ranked as the best in the through camera navigation and create think of passengers as they are on the us to a place where you don’t even feel physical signs because most people to charge — but their batteries could be “grow sensitively”, says Wilbraham. change with the advent of automation. Middle East, and the fifth best in the new ways to visualize and interact plane: first class, premium, economy. that you’re being processed, you’re just will know their route.” As conventional used as storage for renewable energy, to Quieter engines will help — airlines Autonomous tugs already work on world. CNN called it “the most luxurious with the airport’s operational data, It’s not as simple as that. We need to walking through a building to get to shopping goes online and retail takes even out supply and demand. Ultimately, are incentivized to bring their newest the airfield and it has hosted a trial of airport on the planet”. including aircraft movement, passenger give people more choice so that they where you want to be” — and empower up less space, travellers will be able to the target is to make the airport’s planes and stick to the least disruptive a “CargoPod” that could move goods HIA is well located to capitalize not movement and retail analytics.” can create their own journey rather them to roam more freely through the pick and mix from a much wider range of expansion zero-carbon. flight paths. “We also want to ensure around the airside perimeter. “People are only on the growth in global air traffic, Biometrics and facial recognition will than having to fit into the mould of airport. “I don’t think it will be that long activities: “There could easily be a place that the local community is properly going to want a personal service as much but on its eastwards shift. Its expansion further speed up security, and robotics the airport.” before people will start to find their where you watch a movie or TV or go and Sensitive growth attached to the airport, to merge the as they are going to want the benefits plans are ambitious — a second cargo and AI will be trialled to respond to Technology will liberate travellers from way using their phone or tablet. So in relax or get some kip between flights — transport gateway and the city as much of automation, so there will always be terminal will double capacity to simple passenger requests. HIA will also queues — “it has the potential to take 20 years’ time, you won’t need many maybe have a sauna.” Like many global cities, London has an as possible, and at the same time create someone around who can help. It will be 2.8 million tonnes, and 100ha are set explore the use of blockchain for rapid, Wilbraham expects that fewer travellers uneasy relationship with the airports a great place to live and a great place to no bad thing when people don’t come aside for an airport city. But it’s in the secure data sharing across the network. will arrive by road, with improved public that have underpinned its success, and actually work. It’s really important that to work to move bags by hand, but to field of technology that chief operating “Automated decision-making, as the “It’s about providing a more individualized service. In the past transport options and new high-speed especially its major hub. It took almost those things merge more than they have use a machine that moves bags. But it officer Badr Mohammed Al Meer sees next major trend, will see the use of rail links. Driverless cars will ease 20 years to plan and build Heathrow done in the past.” will need to be very sensitively worked the real competitive advantage. The technology to analyze real-time airport we have tended to think of passengers as they are on the plane: capacity issues by reducing the space Terminal 5, and it is already nearly Heathrow’s workforce of 70,000 through to ensure that the passenger future of HIA will be more automated, operations to aid in decision-making, required for car parking and forecourts. that long since the third runway was will grow too, but probably only by gets the right service and that we get the he says, as artificial intelligence which in turn leaves no room for wrong first class, premium, economy. It’s not as simple as that” Electric vehicles will need somewhere first mooted. So Heathrow intends to about 20%, and the skills profile will right sort of efficiencies.” frees staff to focus on more complex decisions.”

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So what will we be doing in the airport of the future? Anything we want. “As airport processes recede and cease to define the passenger experience, there’s an opportunity to spend time there in a much more enjoyable way” Andy Thomas, Grimshaw

Tomorrow’s airport is not says WSP’s Tim Morrison. “It’s really harangued, like they’re being attacked on for people to sit and rest and take stock, just a place to catch a plane or important to have that wonderful all sides by retail offers that don’t interest they’ll be in a much better frame of mind pick up some duty-free. It’s a sensation of arrival too. And then you them, can start to close up. People who to get on their plane. But also they might destination restaurant, a legendary might think, ‘It’s such a spectacular place are comfortable, relaxed and happy in decide that there is something within cocktail bar, a comfy place to sleep, a to be, why don’t we stay here?’ You might their environment are much more likely to that space that’s appealing to them and wellness sanctuary, all tailored precisely spend a few days in the airport as part of spend money.” that they’d like to take the opportunity to for each traveller with smartphone your R&R before moving off into the city Grimshaw designed Istanbul explore and be entertained.” notifications and special offers. No two for the rest of your break. As a concept, it New Airport, with Nordic Office of As on the high street, airport retail journeys through it will be the same. sounds nuts. But the airport experience is Architecture and Haptic, inaugurated in will be more about engaging travellers Airports could even become already light-years ahead of what it used October 2018 and one of the largest in with the brand than persuading them destinations in their own right, the to be.” the world. “There is a very substantial, to spend then and there. “Some of the stopover as much a part of the journey grand airside hall which offers pretty most valuable pieces of space within as the end point. But they will need Airports still need much every type of experience, including the airport are big brand and media to pay far more attention to the arrival passengers to spend money. But wonderful, peaceful spacious areas for experiences, for a company to share experience — traditionally the poor (and they need to be clever about it. The people just to sit and relax,” says Thomas. their brand identity and values with a low-spending) cousin of departures. most successful retail offer isn’t the most “You don’t have to commercialize customer base that tends to have money 39 “When we design airports, there’s far too densely packed, says Grimshaw’s Andy every square foot of the international in their pockets and be prepared to much focus on the departing passenger,” Thomas. “People who feel harassed and departures lounge. If we provide places spend it,” says Thomas.

Singapore’s Changi Airport already has a butterfly [30] garden where weary travellers can reconnect “What airports need Above all, the airport of Grimshaw’s giant terminal for Istanbul with nature. But the Jewel in order to be genuinely tomorrow will be somewhere. New Airport draws on the classical development takes it a step successful destinations “The airport is your first impression of structures of Mimar Sinan, father of further. Opening in 2019, it is is ‘spirit of place’. Spirit of a place and your last recall when you Turkish architecture (or “mimari” in intended to become a “lifestyle place helps pivot passengers leave,” says HOK’s Robert Chicas. “So Turkish). “It’s about how we create destination” in its own to shoppers. It can disrupt the your arrival in one location should be environments that have a kind of right, both for international traveller’s mindset by revealing fundamentally different than another warmth for passengers and a scale visitors to Singapore and the rich bounty of a local location with a completely different that’s understandable, all within this local residents. It includes a story. To be effective it must culture or vibe. It’s the difference genuinely massive building enclosure,” five-storey air-conditioned be a ‘living story’, meaning it between an airport being a vessel to says Andy Thomas. “We took inspiration garden, with walking trails, has continuity with the past, receive and send passengers and it being from how light animates spaces, slides, a maze and the world’s represents the present too a reflection of a particular place.” the rhythm and proportion of these tallest indoor waterfall, as and grows as the local HOK’s new Central Terminal B at environments, the texture and the well as dining, retail, business story evolves.” LaGuardia will feature “pocket parks”, patterning. These all help to make the facilities and hotel cabins that places to sit and rest with indoor trees building particular to its place and can be rented in hourly blocks. Lewis Allen, director of and play areas for children, echoing something that the people of Istanbul environments at retail those found throughout New York City. can take to their hearts.” [27] Grimshaw [28] gnoparus/ designer Portland Meanwhile, Long Beach, couldn’t be As airports have become larger, Shutterstock.com [29] Jewel Changi anywhere other than southern California, architects are also borrowing concepts Airport Devt. [30] Grimshaw with outdoor areas where passengers from urban planners. “It’s about [31] HOK can chill by a firepit with a glass of wine differentiation and placemaking,” says [29] while waiting for their flight. Antoinette Nassopoulos-Erickson, [31]

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“SOME AIRPORTS TREAT Airports may even become cities YOU LIKE SHEEP” in their own right. Not everybody loves duty-free … “Look for yesterday’s busiest train terminals and you will find today’s great urban centres. Look for today’s Richard de Neufville admits that his is a “contrarian” view. Like many frequent business travellers, the MIT busiest airports and you will find the great urban centres of tomorrow” John D Kasarda professor hates having to march through a shopping centre when he just wants to get home. “Some airports treat you like sheep. They want to keep you in the The airport will become businesses that relied on fast links shopping area for as long as possible so you can’t go to the best connected place in the to distant customers, such as FedEx GOODBYE, AIRPORT PARKING where you actually want to be. What I really want to do is city, and a much more integral in Memphis or UPS in Louisville. In get to my gate with a minimum of fuss.” part of it. The key word for sustainable his book Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Parking is the single biggest chunk of airport’s non-aeronautical revenues, and De Neufville is an engineer and system designer who airport development is multimodal. Live Next, University of North Carolina rental cars are the next biggest: together they make up around 60%. [34] The specializes in airport planning. He has been associated Airports will be hubs for city and regional professor John D Kasarda describes the convenience of ride-hailing apps such as Uber and Lyft has already dented the with airport projects on every continent, and is currently [32] links and mass transit of many kinds: aerotropolis as “the logic of globalization appeal of car ownership for millennials, and in the not-too-distant future, shared working with Singapore’s Changi on its massive 1,080ha high-speed rail, autonomous vehicles, made flesh in the form of cities”. That autonomous vehicles could make it almost obsolete. That spells the end for extension. In the future, he believes more passengers senior partner at Foster + Partners. Its sky, the food that’s on offer …” hyperloop, drone taxis … logic has made some form of airport airport parking as we know it. Why pay to leave your own car at the airport for will think as he does. “There won’t be that much extension to Marseille airport, on which Transparency and glazing is important, As airports become quieter, cleaner connectivity essential for all businesses. two weeks when you can summon a lift when you need one? emphasis on shopping malls anywhere, let alone at the WSP is the engineer, will make the most not just for natural light and views but and better connected by mass transit — But it works both ways. In a world that Driverless cars will simply drop off their passengers and head on to their next airport. Big box stores are closing because people prefer of the legendary Provençal lumière with so that people can watch the planes, and cities more crowded and congested is seamlessly connected by the internet, pick-up, but they’ll also need somewhere to wait and to recharge their batteries — to buy things more cheaply online. So the idea that it a continuous grid of skylights that act she adds. “We’re keen that people have — they suddenly present a much more innovation is the greatest differentiator and where better than the airport? “They tend to be very well connected to road would be a special treat to go to a duty-free store and as giant lanterns. “When you arrive in a connection not just to the landscape interesting development opportunity. for companies. For that, they rely on networks and there will always be high demand,” says Grimshaw’s Andy Thomas. then have to carry the stuff around doesn’t make sense. Marseille, you’ll know you’re in Provence,” but to the aircraft, so they don’t feel Gensler aviation lead Ty Osbaugh attracting the brightest human minds — The cost of building a shopping mall in a very congested says Nassopoulos-Erickson. “The like they’re in an anonymous place with believes that with better transit links41 and and those minds don’t want to work on expensive place doesn’t make sense either.” colours, the light, the relationship to no relationship to the experience of landside amenities, the airport city will an industrial estate. They’d rather be in The other part of the equation is the rise of low-cost the landscape, the relationship to the air travel.” evolve from logistics centre to mixed- a vibrant, thriving city, with the airport a travel, making flying more accessible and less of a use development to micro-city: “This short, easy hop away. Whether that’s a special occasion. “Low-cost airlines are taking over and evolution makes the airport part of the brand new city built around the airport, they’re increasingly asking for facilities that serve their larger community. The reality of living or an established city with a fast mass- needs.” Low-cost travellers need somewhere to buy a near an airport has many benefits, and transit connection, will depend on how takeaway sandwich, as they won’t be offered free food Welcome to … Earth the amenity of quick travel to the central successfully airports are able to become Connecting Ontario on the plane, but they’re less likely to view their journey city will attract talent.” fully functional urban centres. as an extended shopping trip. For the ultimate sense of place, The earliest examples of the Within 20 years, Toronto Efficiency, convenience and ease of operation will be head to Spaceport America aerotropolis — a city whose layout and Many new airports are Pearson expects annual the hallmark of future airports, says de Neufville — not in New Mexico, designed by activities centred around an airport deliberately planned with adjacent passenger numbers to almost just for passengers but for airlines too. Outside of the Foster + Partners. “Astronauts — were founded on time-sensitive city-sized lots. Taiwan’s Taoyuan double. It’s new regional US, airports have not typically been designed around who’ve had the experience of manufacturing and distribution Aerotropolis Plan envisages jobs for transit centre, designed by operators — for example, to minimize taxi time or make going into space and coming 200-300,000 people, as well as homes, HOK and WSP, will not only it easier to manoeuvre. “But the cost of even small delays back talk about how precious recreation facilities and amenities for accommodate this growth really mounts up — the full economic cost to operate the Earth is and how concerned the new communities. “We’re trying to but improve connectivity an aircraft is about £100 a minute. Making it efficient they are about the environment,” “Connected airports will build an ecosystem for all the logistics throughout the region. The for operators means they can deliver better prices to says Nassopoulos-Erickson, the and cargo companies, but also to boost airport is in a unique position customers. Ultimately that can drive a lot of the design.” project architect. “Our design connect not just one city to totally new industries to contribute to to link towns and cities Airports can be bigger but still user-friendly, he for that spaceport was very another, but to passenger GDP growth,” says WSP’s Frank Lin. throughout Ontario, located argues. Look at Atlanta, which serves more passengers terrestrial: when you look at it, The government particularly wants to between three municipalities, than any other in the world: “It’s huge but in terms of it’s very earthy, it’s something lifestyles, to the cities in which encourage innovation in four tech fields four major highways and what’s provided, it’s really very simple. The future is not buried in the ground, in contrast — Internet of Things (IoT), smart city a number of planned and an extension of the past. Right now the tendency of a lot to the sleek spacecraft. There’s a they are located, and to the technology, AI and green energy — and is existing transit lines. of places is to build monuments for themselves. But if wonderful view across the New building dedicated R&D facilities to lure [35] that’s important to them, there are ways of doing it more Mexico desert to the hills beyond, emotional experience of travel” entrepreneurs from across Asia. economically and efficiently.” to give you sense that you are Ty Osbaugh, Gensler Older, landlocked airports are sitting [32] Foster + Partners [33] Nigel Young/Foster + Partners [34] ACI part of that world.” on vast tracts of land currently devoted North America [35] Union Pearson Express, Tom Arban Photography [33] (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

to parking — for which redevelopment looms. “That’s a scary thought for many Or maybe the city will become an airport … airport operators — but it presents a tremendous opportunity to rethink the types of facilities and services that airports offer their customers on the “We’re seeing the largest innovation in aviation since World War II. landside,” says Max Hirsh, professor Cities are becoming vertical” Adrienne Lindgren, WSP at the University of Hong Kong and author of Airport Urbanism. “At present, some of the airport’s most valuable real A new space race is on. a reality, our conception of airports will or outlying airports could be brought public acceptance. “It’s going to really estate is occupied by parking structures. The goal is on-demand urban aviation: change — the city will be an airport.” In back into the fold of a regional system. change the visuals of the city. We have Successful airports are re-evaluating electric VTOL drones piloting themselves Dallas — Uber Air’s other US launch city Major airports, meanwhile, will have to think about defining the public benefit whether that still makes sense.” He gives over congested cities, cutting commutes — urban aviation could connect the city’s to decide whether or not to welcome of these technologies, otherwise why the example of Amsterdam Schiphol’s from hours to minutes. sprawling suburbs and decentralized low-altitude interlopers, and how such are people going to accept having them new valet-parking model. Passengers Uber is aiming to start demonstrator transport nodes. In southern California, services will integrate with their own clutter their skyline?” Services will need drop off their cars next to the terminal, flights of the Uber Air service by 2020, it could add significant regional transit, security and electricity networks. to be affordable, says Lindgren: “As which are then parked at a remote facility, and full commercial operations by connectivity: “We don’t have trains, but aviation becomes local, people will have freeing up land for more lucrative uses. 2023. Dubai’s rulers are enthusiastically we have a lot of people spread out. It’s so There are armies of the capacity to legislate you out of their pursuing test flights of Volocopter contentious to build on land in the US, experts on both the technology airspace. That’s a real concern: if no one Budding aerotropolises air taxis to a similar timetable, and owing in no small part to the number of and regulatory aspects. But sees the value, or the value is only there will be in competition with the Singapore’s civil aviation authority is competing and incumbent stakeholders there’s a crucial gap in the middle, for 2-5% of your population, people will cities they serve. So they have to working with the European Aviation on the ground, that I honestly believe it believes Lindgren, for engineering and resent having it in their skies.” offer the things that real cities do. A mix Safety Agency and Airbus to develop will be easier to activate airspace.” consultancy on how to implement urban There will be a cultural shift for all of commercial and residential buildings standards for urban aviation. The Uber Air will link transit nodes rather aviation technologies for the good of city concerned, as ground transport providers is not enough — developers must fill European Commission launched its than running point-to-point, at speeds inhabitants. “What there hasn’t been a and municipalities get to grips with the gaps in between with all of the Urban Air Mobility Initiative in May 2018 of 150-200km. Its ideal city is large, lot of to date are people working at the aviation for the first time. This is where less obviously valuable or glamorous and nine cities and one region have43 sprawling, densely populated, polycentric intersection — how do you integrate airports are uniquely placed to help. amenities that are essential to city life: signed up to run pilot schemes. and congested, and if it has a large these into traditional infrastructure “Airports have tended to do their own childcare, gyms, grocery stores, outdoor “We’re seeing the largest innovation airport that can’t be reached inside an planning processes? Implementation thing in the past, but increasingly you will seating areas, places for food trucks. in aviation since World War II, and hour, that would make for a “compelling is going to be extremely complicated see them included in conversations about “If we really want to create a new type there’s certainly a component of first use case” too. It has narrowed the search because it’s going to touch so many how we plan cities and about oversight of airport urbanism that is irresistible to out the gate,” says Adrienne Lindgren, for a third launch city down to Japan, different areas.” of all these different assets. Airports will both residents and visitors,” says Hirsh, a specialist in urban aviation at WSP. France, Brazil, Australia and India. The biggest challenge will not be continue to become more important in “we need to focus on things that people “Cities are becoming vertical.” Lindgren foresees that small, forgotten technical so much as political: gaining dictating urban power centres.” enjoy doing in their free time: playing Lindgren recently joined WSP from the with their children, relaxing with friends mayor’s office in Los Angeles, one of two over a tasty meal, shopping for unusual Uber Air launch cities in the US, where products, listening to good music, going she was developing policies to help the for a walk in nature.” city integrate new forms of mobility. [36] Full-scale implementation won’t happen Arlanda’s city vision until closer to 2033, she believes, partly because airspace is so heavily regulated. Co-working in arrivals For the last 100 months, Stockholm’s Arlanda airport has But it is this that presents city planners served record numbers of passengers. In 2017, 27 million with a golden opportunity, allowing In the fast-growing, land-poor, more communal people passed through its gates; by 2040, it expects 40 them time to plan how and where urban societies of the East, airports are becoming places million, and by 2070, 70 million. To balance expansion with aviation happens. It could be the missing of social interaction for people who aren’t even development in the surrounding area, government-owned link that better connects existing transit flying. Changi is a favoured study location for operator Swedavia is preparing land-use masterplans with systems into a more functional whole. Singapore’s university students, lured by free wifi, a 50-year horizon for Arlanda and its nine other airports aircon, 24-hour access and the variety of quiet across Sweden. “The airport is increasingly seen as a What this actually looks spaces and refreshments. “Rather than keeping destination and a meeting place in its own right,” says Anna like will differ from city to city. everyone out, airports are beginning to open up and Norin, head of masterplanning at Swedavia. “By definition “Aviation has been built on a very specific they’re looking at spaces in a completely different you would go there as a traveller, but because of Arlanda’s standardized system, and this will really light,” says WSP’s Jason Brooks. great connectivity, a lot of city elements are also developing challenge all of the parties involved to [36] Swedavia Airports [37] NASA in the immediate surroundings.” think a little differently. If this becomes [37] One of humanity’s oldest skills is making an unlikely comeback as designers rebel against the render BACK WORDS BY NICK JONES

urely hand-drawing should be dead by now? It is a quarter of a century since French architect Bernard Tschumi initiated TO THE the “paperless studio” at New York’s Columbia University to find out “how one can think with computers”. As his students unleashed a world of alternative geometries and amoebic forms, Tschumi suggested that the architect of the future would be less a skilled draughtsman, DRAWING more a wide-ranging digital specialist. Since then, more and more of our buildings have started out as a line on a screen, before being revealed to the world in the form of slick CAD renders. There is even a question as to whether computers need architects to help them BOARD think at all — intelligent parametric tools can design spaces based on complex algorithms, while robots have “learned” to design and build elaborate structures without human intervention. It all feels a very long way from a roll of yellow tracing paper and a favourite pencil. And yet hand-drawing is refusing to go quietly — in fact, it is showing tentative signs of a renaissance. As technology has become ubiquitous, perhaps it’s to be expected that we are more aware of its limitations. Many architects and engineers have found that the creative process is simply not as intuitive when the delicate relationship between brain, eye and hand is mediated by computer. The digital revolution has inspired reams of psychological research, much of which sees drawing as an innate Supermassive Artwork Ron Slade on beginning a visual dialogue “Sketching is an effective way of explaining spatial relationships, visualizing complex analysis, showing how ideas have evolved and demonstrating how something is going to be built. From a practical point of view, there is no better way to start than finding a tracing roll and a soft pencil and downloading ideas onto paper in a rough and ready fashion, just to develop your own thoughts and then help begin a visual dialogue with colleagues and designers in related disciplines.”

Right Tall building, an early construction sequence; pencil on paper

Far right Foundation construction, part of a sequence; pencil on paper

human activity — as vital to learning, Why drawing matters them. “Drawing is a really important Vasari all drew by hand on site, Inigo with Le Corbusier’s — the details they on design students at the Pratt Institute things in relation to each other, at the thinking and communicating as it is to way of observing the world really, really Jones twice visited Italy to record the highlighted, those they left out — Brillhart “Something I’ve noticed with in New York, she found they became right scale, on a piece of paper. That’s not artistic expression. Organizations such Drawing — in its widest sense — plays closely,” says Rebecca Chamberlain, a details and construction techniques of began to understand how this direct more aware of the relationships between a drawing ability, that’s a cognitive ability. as Thinking Through Drawing in the US many roles in the creation of the built psychologist at Goldsmith’s, University Palladio’s buildings, and even after the engagement with the world had informed new buildings is that you can objects. “If we asked them to make a An engineer who draws to scale is really and The Big Draw in the UK promote the environment, from the inspired doodle of London, who has explored the advent of photography, architects such the Swiss designer’s work. “Le Corbusier five-minute drawing and they had to important — you’ll find the guys who can need for visual literacy in fields as diverse on a restaurant tablecloth to the lavish relationship between drawing and wider as Le Corbusier would take extended drew on site to deeply understand scale almost tell which software they pick out the most important aspects of draw in the meeting are also the ones as particle physics and dentistry. Art watercolour painting that convinces a visual awareness. “Artists pick up on field trips with their sketchbooks. Several as well as light, shadow and form in full, a scene, they got better at selecting that who can give you the quick answer.” should be as integral a part of the school planning panel. It is used to generate things like textures and patterns that years ago — and having just spent two physical three dimensions.” In the flat two were designed in” Tatiana von information,” she says. Digital tools, on the other hand, can timetable as science subjects, they concepts, to bring a sense of personality other people don’t notice. In architecture years at Columbia’s paperless studios — dimensions of a computer screen, on the Preussen, vPPR Architects Honing drawing skills gives designers offer a deceptive sense of gratification, he argue, with STEM — science, technology, to a design, or just to swap ideas among too, you have to be alert all the time Miami-based architect Jacob Brillhart other hand, “there’s no sun, no shadow, a far better sense of relative scale, says warns. “The process of drawing is about engineering and mathematics — members of the project team. A drawing to aspects of your visual environment, picked up his sketchbook and retraced no weight, no material, no scale and very Maurice Brennan, associate partner constantly assessing, reassessing — have broadened to become STEAM. In this can capture people’s attention, win an interesting things that you then integrate Le Corbusier’s 1907-11 trips through Italy, little physical and cultural context”. at architect Rogers Stirk Harbour + I got this right, should I move this? — context, the idea that our buildings and argument, describe the indescribable. into your work.” Greece and Turkey to better understand Chamberlain’s research also explores Partners, who posts sketches from his whereas in CAD software, you move cities can be designed entirely via a But one of the most fundamental The use of drawing as an observation the relationship between close how observational drawing improves travels and daily life on Instagram. “It’s from a hard line to a completed visual computer screen begins to look, frankly, reasons why designers draw is simply tool is as old as architecture itself. observation, drawing and architectural spatial perception. When she studied the not about drawing well, or beautiful very, very quickly. You don’t go through a bit old-fashioned. to help them to see what’s in front of Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and design. By comparing his drawings impact of foundation drawing classes shading in, it’s about being able to put that process of gradually building up

P48 Jacob Brillhart on observational drawing “I was so tired of looking at a screen for two years straight, I wanted to kill somebody! So I picked up my sketchbook and Corbu’s sketchbooks and travelled round Europe, standing in all the places he stood, looking at the things he drew, and I just drew them again because all I wanted to do was make physical things, and see physical things. What was funny was that sometimes I didn’t even look at the things he was looking at — he exaggerated some things but left others out. It gave me insight, and allowed me to be more critical, more analytical about the work.”

Right Santa Maria Novella, Florence; pencil and watercolour on paper

Drawing “stops the room”, according to at WSP in London, calls it “conversational Narinder Sagoo on the intrinsic need to draw Laurie Chetwood, founder of UK-based drawing”. He notes how botany field “Growing up, drawing was a form of escapism for practice Chetwood Associates, who has guides are always based on detailed me — a way of exploring the world. It became a way written and spoken extensively on the drawings rather than photographs — as to connect, see dreams, see the world and record it. importance of drawing to the profession much for what they leave out as for what I would draw my grandmother as she cooked, or my as well as exhibiting his own artworks. they show. “Extraneous material that grandfather, a carpenter, as he tinkered with his tools. information. That’s why there are some process involves a mix of “delicate an extent, but drawn architecture comes Ralph, the site foreman, sat me down It’s also far more effective for reaching a might exist in a photograph is eliminated. I often found myself in my father’s metal workshop, very complicated, advanced-looking line drawings and precise computer from the human imagination: “If you and upturned a dustbin to work as a decision: “If someone says ‘what about It may be important to pick out and furiously sketching all the wondrous apparatus and buildings out there that don’t really stand modelling”, but co-founder Tatiana von look at the [1980s-90s] deconstructivist make-shift table. ‘Chris,’ he said, ‘you can if we did such and such’ and you sketch illustrate particular areas and leave other equipment that surrounded and captivated me. My up as bits of architecture.” Preussen, another Columbia alumnus, period, that was very much an exercise sketch. Take out your book and draw for it, it accelerates the process. Instead of parts in sketchy or broad outline.” passion for drawing started early, perhaps at the Brillhart describes hand-drawing as says that certain software comes with in drawing, and it was a love of drawing me what it looks like. If I can see it, I can saying ‘let’s go away and come back’, you same time as my passion for making. The two were real-time printing, “because as you’re constraints that encourage a particular that produced those amazing buildings. build it.’ I drew it, he built it.” can do it in front of people. You probably An honest trade inseparable. While sketching allowed me to have drawing you’re printing it. You stop style. “Something I’ve noticed with new All of Zaha Hadid’s early work comes In a design meeting, drawing is quicker, cut out 25% of the time it usually takes.” fun, the discipline of drawing fascinated me. I really immediately when it starts looking bad buildings is that you can almost tell out of the drawing — it’s a direct more effective, and more fun. Kevin RSHP’s Brennan also knows the power There’s another area of architecture enjoyed the dance between the pen or pencil and paper, and you reflect on it. The computer, on which software they were designed in. relationship.” Winward, executive chairman of WSP of a well-timed sketch. “I’d be in meetings where elements of a project may be best and when I draw now I still try to reconnect to that the other hand, offers very little time for For instance, if you take Revit, it’s very Structures in Melbourne, comes from with, say, 30 people — engineers, left to the imagination: communicating childhood curiosity I felt then.” reflection — and that’s because you’re not hard to freely create non-orthogonal, A universal language a generation of engineers for whom project managers, all round a big table to clients. Narinder Sagoo, senior thinking and printing at the same time.” non-linear geometries, and it’s very easy drawing was the primary means of — and everyone would be having side partner at Foster + Partners and an Above Proposal for City Park, West Kowloon Cultural One consequence of this is that the to create repetitive elements, so it lends As a tool for communication, hand- engagement between designers. “When conversations. But as soon as you grab ambassador for The Big Draw, describes District, Hong Kong, Foster + Partners; ink on tracing architect can be led by the computer. itself to a particular way of building.” drawing is difficult to replace. Artist and I’m working with an architect, we’ll be a pen and a piece of paper and start architecture as creating sets for people’s paper London practice vPPR Architects’ Form has always followed medium to architect Chris Loyn remembers a site sitting there, scribbling on paper and drawing something, everyone leans over, lives, “giving their theatre a backdrop, meeting when he was a young architect leaning over one another,” he says. “It and you command the table.” be it a momentary experience or wholly on a particularly complex project where means you’re more likely to come up A skilled draughtsman guides encompassing, such as the workplace. the roof and walls both curved. with creative ideas that work straight these conversations by selecting and Therefore, when we draw, we create “It’s kind of amusing — instead of just sitting down and “I was trying to convey to the away. You can’t really do that on a emphasizing details in a way that storyboards, much like those for films, drawing for an hour, they spend eight hours making it look like contractor the critical junctions computer, side by side, and it can computer programmes cannot. Ron to which we can add emotion and using traditional orthogonal save you a lot of time compared Slade, author of Sketching for Engineers complexity, or innocence and simplicity.” a hand drawing” Jacob Brillhart, Brillhart Architecture plan and section drawings. to doing it remotely.” and Architects and a structural director Many younger practices are shunning digital renders in favour of a more Chris Loyn on drawing in crafted approach, creating evocative meetings “A lot of people talk about going into almost a meditative state, where they can just focus on the imagery that more loosely captures the “I use a day book in which I characterful spaces they hope to build. have recorded every meeting shape, the form, and it opens up new ways of thinking” Kate Mason, The Big Draw Some, such as Rotterdam’s Monadnock, since I started up in practice are as renowned for their drawings in 1987. The ability to sketch in as their finished buildings. “We think front of the client to illustrate drawings are part of the total production one’s thoughts and early of a practice,” says Monadnock’s Job ideas conveys an intimate Floris. “We try to show the possible knowledge and understanding structure in its context, consciously of the project, which in resisting the killing photo-realism of turn gives confidence. I see render-culture.” sketching and painting as This is partly a question of architectural a vital part of the ‘art of the fashion. Just as the brutalist revival architect’. It trains the eye.” was best depicted in the moody black-and-white photographs beloved Right Sketch views of houses of Flickr users, so the more recent in Radyr, south Wales; pencil fashion for narrative-based, historicist on paper architecture — often grouped together as a postmodern revival — lends itself to Below Observational painting more esoteric, authored illustration. But of a Barcelona street; pencil, the rejection of CAD also chimes with pen and watercolour on the millennial search for authenticity and watercolour paper

Maurice Brennan on drawing and thinking “For drawing to operate well it has to be an extension of your thinking — literally a physical presentation of your thought processes. Even now on CAD software, you really can’t do that early stage design — just putting planes and lines into space. I think that’s one of the key things about manual drawing, you’re able to put artisanship in all things. Back in 2009, physical evidence of the thought and ideas down and move on from a study by the University of the West of effort that goes into their production. them very quickly. You find England found that most people viewed You might see guide lines, reworking and people who are at quite an photorealistic representations as more even corrected errors and smudges.” advanced stage in a project credible than hand drawings, and that Psychologists have noted that people still doing elaborate freehand there was “near universal” belief that tend to place greater artistic value on sketches. Not because it’s computers were more accurate and more images when they can see the work that the easiest way to develop precise than humans. Today, when lying has gone into them — a tendency known that part of the design, more with photography has become as simple as the “effort heuristic”. They are also because it allows a freedom as a carefully positioned smartphone and more likely to connect emotionally with to think, unencumbered by a a well-chosen filter, and the combined the work if they can detect the human computer screen.” might of Twitter can call out photo fakery hand, says Goldsmiths’ Chamberlain. in seconds, trust levels would likely be “There’s an argument that if we see a Left Concept sketches for much lower. brush stroke, we almost recreate it, and Broadwick Street, London, There is, suggests Slade, an in-built that’s part of the connection we feel with Rogers Stirk Harbour + honesty to drawing, and particularly the artist — you can feel the intention.” Partners; ink and Pantone to sketching. ‘‘Sketches often provide Perhaps to capitalize on this, some markers on paper architects now show presentation drawing as ephemeral and separate the sense of touch, or fails to. “Like Laurie Chetwood on drawings that look hand-drawn but are from “serious” subjects such as science drawing on glass with a nail,” according drawing with an iPad actually generated entirely by computer. and mathematics. “There’s a very big to WSP’s Winward, who uses a tablet for “It’s amazing: all the colours, “It’s totally fake,” says Brillhart. “They just disconnect about where the jobs will convenience but prefers paper. Loyn also the opacities, you can layer take a computer image into Photoshop be in the future and the way we are misses the sheer physicality of traditional things, you can scribble things and put filters over it to make it look like educating young people.” (and not so traditional) methods when out, you can take things off, it’s drawn by hand. It’s kind of amusing — Chetwood is adamant that everybody using a tablet: “I just like the feel of the you can reposition things. And instead of just sitting down and drawing can draw. “It’s just that certain people paper and being able to smudge stuff it’s fantastically versatile. I can for an hour, they spend eight hours liked drawing when they were kids so with my hands, or grab some mud or do it anywhere, on the train, in making it look like a hand drawing.” they drew more, practised more and got something and smear it. I once sat at a a tree if I wanted to. If I have This could backfire, warns good at it. If you sat someone down and cafe outside Notre Dame and didn’t have to be very relaxed and do a Chamberlain: “If something looks like got them to draw one thing for an hour any paints, so I dipped a tissue in my sensitive drawing, I still usually it’s handmade but just not quite, that’s a day, they would get absolutely brilliant wine and painted the cathedral with red resort to paper because I’m in probably worse than just looking purely at it. I knew a guy who couldn’t draw wine. It was quite successful.” complete control, I’m used to it digital. We don’t like that uncanny sense, anything but he loved cars and he could But in the past couple of years, Brennan and it’s force of habit. But then blurring the boundary of looking like real knock out a car in 3D with all the bells believes that tablets have caught up, I might scan it and put it back life when it’s not.” It’s a similar effect and whistles in about two seconds flat.” with apps such as Apple’s ProCreate and into the computer and I’ll use to the “uncanny valley” phenomenon in Drawing appears to be coming back, in Morpholio’s Trace becoming far more the computer on top of that.” robotics, where machines that are too design schools at least. Brillhart teaches responsive to the user’s marks. “Tablets lifelike make us uneasy. architecture at the University of Miami didn’t used to have that immediate Right Infinity Beach, a and says that all his students want to response, from brain to eye to hand to conceptual coastal settlement, Thinking with our hands know how to draw by hand. He has pen to paper. A half-second delay has designed to combine detected signs of a renaissance at Yale, a huge impact on how you think — it seascape, beachscape, Perhaps drawing will one day be Harvard and even Columbia — where causes you to stumble. But now that lag’s streetscape and landscape what separates us from the robots. back in the 1990s he resorted to building gone, it’s almost the same as drawing into a holistic community; P16 Organizations such as The Big Draw his own drawing board. Chetwood with pen on paper. You don’t need to hand drawing on tablet emphasize drawing as an innate human has noticed a major push to get engage with the airbrushes or other activity, an instinct as much as a learned architecture students to draw at some features — just use it in its purest form.” skill, which children pick up naturally and UK universities, where he is involved The stylus, too, far more convincingly automatically. The hand is less a tool as an examiner: “They have to have a apes a manual pen: “You’re able to tune it for externalizing imaginative thought, proper design notebook, which is shown to almost replicate your favourite pen — rather it works together with the brain alongside their final presentations.” and it doesn’t run out of ink.” and eye as a single thought-generating Some universities are even re-opening Chetwood is an iPad devotee, using it entity. “Drawing is knowledge,” argues their drawing studios, adds Mason. to produce fantastical urban artworks as Kate Mason, director of The Big Draw. “There was a time when they were well as architecture. Far from hindering “It’s that process of illumination as you’re replacing them with computer rooms. the drawing process, he believes tablets doing it — it’s not the end product at Now they are starting to take those will give rise to a new era of creative all. A lot of people talk about going into computers out and turn the spaces back drawing. “A lot of people say technology almost a meditative state, where they to what they were originally intended for.” and computers are taking away the true can just focus on the shape, the form, art of drawing. That’s rubbish, it releases and it opens up new ways of thinking.” The disruptive screen sketching. You can move so much As many traditional roles become quicker and change things much more obsolete, a greater proportion of jobs Of course, you don’t necessarily need quickly, and it keeps a record of what will rely on this type of intuitive a paper and pencil to draw. Many you’re doing. The control is just brilliant.” human cognition, says Mason. artists and architects have The polished glass surface is the only “We won’t need so many linear seized on tablets as the best flaw, but textured acetates applied to the skills. Instead, we’ll focus far of both worlds — not least screen can make it feel more like paper. more on the roles of critical iPad evangelist David So perhaps the end really is nigh for thinking, problem-solving and Hockney, who has devoted paper in the architect’s office. But in an aptitudinal skills.” The trouble entire exhibitions to his age of automation, one of humanity’s is that governments don’t crossover works. oldest and most innate skills is coming necessarily recognize An early stumbling back to the fore. The paperless studio this, Mason adds, block was the haptic may soon be back, but this time it will still preferring to see response of the screen involve manual drawing skills — in fact, activities such as — the way it recreates it will depend on them. 55 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

The global temperature is definitely rising — but how do we prepare for a future that is both entirely certain and completely unknowable? WORDS BY TONY WHITEHEAD

pecies often evolve most quickly But this is only the first phase of what is S when under stress: a change proving to be a quantum leap in building in the environment forces adaptive design. Climate change is already improvements and only the fittest occurring and it will continue to happen survive. Much the same could be said over the coming century and beyond. It for the built environment. Design is not enough that building construction imperatives ushered in by the threat of and operation should attempt to mitigate

global climate change have driven rapid CO2 production: the built environment advances in quality, so in many parts must also adapt to survive the new of the world buildings are now more climate, and allow society to thrive in airtight, better insulated, better cooled, whatever conditions prevail. less wasteful of materials and generally We do, of course, have a general idea more efficient than ever before. Had the of what to prepare for. As summarized

need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) in the fifth assessment report from emissions not existed, it might have the UN Intergovernmental Panel on been useful, as a design challenge, to Climate Change (IPCC), “In urban areas

LeonieArtwork Bos have invented it. climate change is projected to increase 57 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

Left California’s new high-speed rail system is due to complete in 2029, connecting 24 stations with 800 miles of track. The rail authority, with WSP as delivery partner, has developed a climate adaptation plan, identifying actions to be taken while recognizing the absence of certainty regarding future conditions

risks for people, assets, economies and ecosystems, including risks from heat stress, storms and extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, water scarcity, sea level rise and storm surges.” This statement was communicated with “very high confidence” — the highest level of certainty employed by the IPCC. The average global temperature is now 1°C higher than in the pre-industrial era, and we are already witnessing the consequences in the form of more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice. In 2015, world leaders from 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, committing to keep the temperature increase to “well below” 2°C and to working towards a lower threshold GOT IT COVERED? of 1.5°C. As they prepare to reconvene in How corporates can protect themselves in an uncertain world December 2018, the IPCC has published its most strongly worded report yet, urging that 1.5°C should be seen as the “Not usually rocket science,” what are the risks to the one to the other. “Folks think even aware of, which was maximum and outlining the significantly is how Michael Mondshine building where the CEO sits? they have it under control, essentially resolved with a greater risks to people and the natural describes the actions needed Are the data centres safe? but often they haven’t asked few phone calls.” environment that would accompany a to protect against climate How secure is the local utility the right questions. For the Companies should take 2°C rise. The difference made by half a change. Based in Virginia, and transport infrastructure?” price of a pipe they could every chance to fix such degree came as a “revelation” to the 91 Mondshine is vice president While some of the answers have significantly improved issues before it is too late, authors of the report, who reviewed more of sustainability, energy and can be found from desk their resilience.” he adds. “The timescales than 6,000 studies. climate change at WSP and studies, Mondshine says One trick that companies for climate change tend According to the IPCC, there are just he advises corporate clients, that site visits are essential. regularly miss — “and this is to be decadal, and people 12 years left to limit catastrophic climate including some of the world’s “It pays to walk around and often super-low cost” — is to use that as an excuse not change. But even if this very ambitious occupied by 160 million people globally proven inaccurate by the passage of biggest companies, on ask questions. For example, liaise with municipalities and to do anything yet. But target is met, it still means the average would be inundated by sea level rises, time, forecasters have stepped back from “Already a lot of these very airtight and heavily insulated climate risk and resilience. we advise a Fortune 100 utility providers to check that it’s important to realize global temperature will be half a degree while a 4°C rise would result in the predicting changes by a certain date “Governments and company that had a data local services are secure. “One that although the worst higher than it is today. This represents displacement of 600 million people, and instead tend to focus on what will buildings are overheating badly, with internal temperatures municipal authorities need centre in two adjacent client was reliant for power impacts are yet to come, a vast amount of extra energy in the equivalent to the entire population of happen when a certain temperature level to examine risk top-down, buildings. Each had power on a series of substations the probability curves have world’s weather systems, resulting in a North America. is breached. way beyond 30ºC” Håkan Nilsson, WSP looking at protecting whole back-up and fuel tanks, but that were all on a flood plain. already shifted. The one-in- formidable range of negative impacts. The future looks uncertain ­— doubly so cities and infrastructure they weren’t connected.” They had never spoken to the 100-year storm is now one- If the target is missed — and many given that the many and varied effects of The trouble with change networks,” he says, “but we When trouble struck and one local utility about how secure in-20. The hurricane season experts now regard a 2°C rise as all but climate change will impact on different take a bottom-up approach tank ran empty, the company those substations were — starts earlier. So the tails inevitable — the consequences for life areas of the globe in different ways. For the architects, engineers and California High Speed Rail Authority California when we’re dealing with had to improvise, using fire which was ‘not very’. They of those curves are longer as we know it will be severe. US-based Furthermore, there is little agreement developers who shape the future of the individual businesses. So, hoses to transfer fuel from had a huge risk they weren’t and fatter.” research organization Climate Central on when various future scenarios may built environment, this is awkward. We

Visualization forecasts that with a 2°C rise, homes come to pass. Having already been know that our designs must be resilient 59 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

to change, but since we cannot know On other projects, a shorter design life keeping with the architectural style. But Left Minimizing stormwater “There is no doubt that the extent and timing of this change, is not the answer. Sometimes the chosen to me a beautiful building is one that runoff was one of the primary there is a risk that our solutions may be solution is to build in flexibility for the works for the people who use it.” aims of HUNI Architectes’ climate change will be a under-designed, over-designed or just future, as on the proposed Crossrail 2 competition-winning design plain wrong. underground line for London. “We expect Learning from disaster for Da Nang City Center huge issue … Burying our “It’s true we are dealing with a great London to be hotter,” says Symons, “but Square in Vietnam. It includes heads in the sand will result deal of uncertainty,” acknowledges we can’t know how much or quite how Regulatory change may be necessary, permeable paving and trees David Symons, global leader of WSP’s that will impact the underground. So then, if designers are to make the fullest planted in large rainwater- in the worst of all worlds” Future Ready innovation programme. we don’t build in huge air-conditioning contribution to a resilient future. This collecting pits “But if we take the view that it’s all too systems now. Rather, we leave space for is echoed by social scientist Vivienne David Symons, WSP difficult and we don’t do anything, we will vents and plant that can be fitted later Ivory, technical principal with WSP Opus end up with suboptimal design. There as necessary.” in New Zealand and a researcher at is no doubt that climate change will be Adding empty plant rooms and the University of Otago specializing in a huge issue for designers, for cities, for shortening design lives requires a public health and urban environments. entire populations, so burying our heads certain change in mind-set for designers Ivory led a study of how the city of in the sand will result in the worst of trained to think about space efficiency, Christchurch is recovering from its two all worlds.” or accustomed to longer-lasting designs recent earthquakes, which revealed much Responding to this uncertainty is as representing best value for money. The about how society responds to disaster. important as planning for the future. concept of resilience throws up many “Though this was not a climate-related Many projects, particularly infrastructure, more challenges to contemporary event, the destruction of homes and have long design lives of over 100 years, thinking — not least that some measures infrastructure is very much the kind of says Symons: “Even with the best taken in the name of climate change thing we are likely to see more of as information, there is massive uncertainty mitigation might not serve the need to extreme weather events such as cyclones over sea level and storm activity over adapt to new conditions. and flooding become more frequent,” she that period.” On a recent project to Sweden has led the world on making points out. upgrade a coastal railway embankment buildings that are efficient to heat, The study found that different parts

P63 near Poole in the UK, WSP advised greatly reducing energy demand of the city are recovering at different that the design life be reduced from in winter by improving airtightness rates. For example, those areas where it 110 to 35 years. “It’s much less expensive and insulation. But Håkan Nilsson, was possible to walk or cycle to shops in capital cost, and the intervening time consultant building physicist with or work are valued over those relying can be used to assess what’s best to WSP in Stockholm, says that it is now on cars. “One of the things that made do next.” experiencing unprecedented problems a big difference was space,“ says Ivory. “THERE ARE LOTS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES” as summers become hotter. “Already “Parks and squares became places where 100 years is a long time in an uncertain world — which means decision-making needs to be adaptive a lot of these very airtight and heavily people came together and engaged with insulated buildings are overheating recovery. Space enabled the creation of badly, with internal temperatures way pop-up functions — to replace amenities “It’s no use preparing for business of planning for an complex.” The effects of urbanization into account, in the protected area, and example from his home city beyond 30°C. And because our weather that had been lost — and this worked on one probable future,” says uncertain future, the subject climate change interact with the impact might be more you are committed to of Manchester in the UK: is also wetter, mould is becoming a more every scale. We even saw a spare bit of Iain White, professor of of his 2016 TEDx talk, many other factors, he adds, like one-in-ten-years. We maintaining that protection, “To protect the urban centre, common problem.” sidewalk where old chiller cabinets had environmental planning at where White is becoming such as population growth already have an increasing pretty much forever. It’s they created areas of river The solutions for new buildings are been turned into a free book exchange, the University of Waikato in more globally recognized. and the movement of people incidence of climate expensive, and all defences upstream where the banks fairly straightforward, such as increasing a temporary library. So space which had New Zealand. “It’s better to “Understandably, into cities. records being broken. So eventually meet the event could be safely breached ventilation and making better use of initially provided refuge when disaster think of the future not as a decision makers don’t This uncertainty means we are moving from a high- that will make them fail. So and the water stored on thermal mass to even out temperature struck then provided leverage to help the destination, but a pathway like uncertainty,” he says. that government, planners confidence decision-making a decision that only locks playing fields.” In due course differentials between night and day. city recover socially.” Her conclusion was — one best navigated with “There’s this idea, rooted in and businesses will have environment to one of low you in for ten years might heavy rains tested the “Shading too is vital,” adds Nilsson. that city-wide resilience requires both small, nimble steps.” the Enlightenment, that if to change the way they confidence.” be better.” system and it worked. By “It can be done in a number of ways: local connectedness “and maybe some White’s research has we accumulate sufficient approach the future. “In The answer, says White, White counsels against choosing where the failure deeper window reveals, using balconies compromises on the rules about how explored the vulnerability facts we can reach 100% the 20th century, planners is adaptive decision-making. the mindset that looks occurred, White says, the to shade windows below them, or fitting public space is used”. of New Zealand’s water understanding. But with the used historical data to plan “If you make a decision that always for failsafe options. city was protected at a brise-soleils. But people are still building It so happens that space is also a infrastructure to climate future, that’s just not the for, say, a one-in-100-year locks you in for 100 years, “You could build enormous relatively low cost, allowing airtight glass boxes with too much particularly effective tool for creating change, and he is the author case. We can’t completely flood. But we know that the then that is a long time, flood defences that might for further measures to be potential for solar gain. We cannot even resilience to flooding. “Cities contain of Water and the City, a predict climate change, in past is not a good guide in an uncertain world, to never be needed, and you taken at a later date. “We retrofit many of our existing buildings large amounts of impermeable surfaces, book about the relationship part because it depends on to future conditions. The defend that decision. For would have wasted a lot of have to stay flexible. The with brise-soleils because it is not and heavy rain can quickly overload between urban areas and how we react to it. But also one-in-100-year flood might example, if you build a big money. It’s often better to one thing we are certain of permitted by local planning regulations, existing storm water drainage”, says the water sources they rely because the environment already be a one-in-20-year flood defence wall, that will have a design that is ‘safe is change, so we have to which deem them too ugly or not in Enrico Isnenghi, a technical director and on. However, it is in the is far too dynamic and event. If you take increased encourage development to fail’ instead.” He gives an change too.” City Photo of Stockholm & Dynagraph

Left Stockholm Royal Seaport is a new “climate positive” district, due to complete in 2030. Its 10,000 homes have been designed not only to conserve heat in winter but to remain comfortable in Sweden’s hotter future summers. Apartment buildings will feature solar shading and passive cooling, and there will be additional green landscaping to absorb higher rainfall 63 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

ADAPT OR MITIGATE: THE DILEMMA FOR CITIES Do the two disciplines need to talk to each other more?

When cities start talking mitigation, C40 contracted reducing power needed for added to mitigation: “If you going to be times when differences between and about climate change with WSP to develop the heating and air conditioning, are digging up the street air-conditioning is needed within cities, Oudkerk Pool resilience, it can give the Adaptation and Mitigation and adapts by reducing to put in a residual heat to keep people healthy and is not a fan of attempting mistaken impression that Interaction Assessment stormwater runoff and pipe, then why not replace productive. Or as cities seek to quantify the benefits they have given up on trying (AMIA) software tool. “The helping to reduce the risk the paving with permeable to become more dense to of climate risk adaptation

to reduce CO2 emissions, hope is that it will provide of flooding. Most greening pavers at the same time? be more energy-efficient, versus mitigation. This is warns Chantal Oudkerk designers and politicians measures are synergistic in Again, the cost of the they have to weigh that reflected in the tool, which Pool, head of adaptation with a checklist,” says this way.” second action is reduced.” against negatives such as flags the opportunities and at the C40 Cities Climate Oudkerk Pool. “Have they The second positive, “Mal-investment” is increasing the heat island risks attached but does Leadership Group, which thought about all that can be says Oudkerk Pool, can be what Oudkerk Pool calls effect, less green space, not prescribe solutions. brings together the done? Have they considered achieved by “piggybacking”. one of the less positive and having more economic It does, however, contain mayors of more than 90 all the interactions?” “Quite often you find that interactions: “Rotterdam value in a smaller area — so more than 60 previously global cities. “The two The AMIA tool was a mitigating measure can was enthusiastic about the impact from, say, a flood undocumented case studies disciplines of adaptation guided by input from WSP be efficiently added to an installing charging points for could be greater.” from C40 cities and will and mitigation often exist staff in the UK, US, South adaptation measure, or vice electric vehicles, but some In trade-off situations, it be regularly updated with in their own silos,” she says. Africa and Australia, and versa. Here in the Rotterdam of these were in flood- is up to each local area to new ones submitted by “It’s a missed opportunity to tested by four pilot cities: region, for example, a few prone areas. It was only at carefully consider its own users. “These will hopefully achieve the best outcomes.” Durban, Melbourne, New decades ago we constructed the last minute, when the circumstances: “Sometimes inspire those who design C40’s stated mission is York and Rio de Janeiro. It a large, expensive adaptation people talked to it’s straightforward, like in for the cities of the world to “drive urban action that identifies four main types of storm surge barrier [the the mitigation people, that Holland where, being below and encourage those all- reduces greenhouse gas interaction — two positive Oosterscheldekering, the design was improved sea level, we either pump important conversations emissions and climate risks, and two potentially negative. below]. Now tidal turbines and that mal-investment or drown. It’s often more between adaptors and while increasing health, “First we have positive, have been added to it was avoided.” nuanced than that, and what mitigators.” wellbeing and economic synergistic measures, like a relatively cheaply because Finally, she says, there constitutes acceptable risk Download the AMIA opportunities.” To help cities green roof that insulates and much of the necessary are interactions where is a local choice.” tool from the C40 steer a course throughout helps to reduce the heat- infrastructure was already trade-offs have to be made. For this reason, and Resource Centre at both adaptation and island effect. It mitigates by there.” Or adaptation can be “Most obviously, there are because of the considerable resourcecentre.c40.org Tony Hisgett / Flickr Tony Photo

water management expert with WSP subject to fierce competition from many “Space made a big difference in Christchurch. in London. “Green infrastructure in the uses. Most of the world’s metropolises public realm such as parks, playing fields are becoming more densely populated Parks and squares became places where and ponds or lakes can all provide vital and will have to make do with less space for water to pond or flow, storing undeveloped space rather than more. people came together and engaged it safely and away from critical buildings This is another issue where mitigation with recovery” Vivienne Ivory, WSP Opus and infrastructure.” and adaptation seem to be pitted against Green infrastructure offers the one another. “The thing is, there are good additional benefits of increasing reasons to densify a city,” says Iain White, biodiversity, reducing the urban heat professor of environmental planning at island effect and providing high-quality the University of Waikato in New Zealand amenity for citizens to enjoy. “I think and a specialist in risk and resilience. Above Re:START municipalities and other stakeholders “It makes for more efficient land use, container mall in sometimes miss a trick here,” says transport, utility distribution, plenty of Christchurch, New Isnenghi. “It doesn’t help that funding for positives to do with mitigating climate Zealand. After the flood protection is often not structured change. And policymakers will always be 2011 earthquake, to allow these additional benefits to be under pressure to use ‘spare’ space for pop-up facilities were taken into account.” other things, like social housing. But the set up in open spaces Few would dispute the advantages reality is that you either make space for across the city as part bestowed by ample open spaces and water above ground or below ground in

of the recovery green infrastructure, but land in cities is pipes or storage — and a playing field is Shutterstock Photo 65 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

usually much cheaper than building new anything else,” he says. “I find that when hard infrastructure.” you explain the wellness argument — White remains optimistic that these when you point out that if your office conflicting pressures can be resolved, gets too hot you are not going to attract by combining ingenious design with a the best people to work there and your little regulatory tweaking. “You’ve heard very expensive workforce is going to of the zero-carbon house. You can have be 10% less productive — then people a zero-runoff house, even in a densely listen. They suddenly see that adaptation populated city. You can have measures measures can be very cost-effective and like permeable paving, or you can delay actually deliver competitive advantage.” the rain flow by using underground As businesses and governments storage tanks or green roofs to slow develop their own responses to climate the release of water into the existing change, the notion of competitive drainage system and help it to cope with advantage is likely to figure more extreme precipitation. Because this is prominently. “Investors don’t like risk,” not standard design or part of a strategic says Symons, “they do like resilience. perspective across a city, you need to So it makes sense for an environmental embed it within the planning process.” regulation body, say, to talk about a country gaining economic advantage P56 A persuasive business case from being water resilient.” Politicians and administrators are No discussion of climate adaptation beginning to understand and respond makes sense without considering the to this approach. For example, WSP is price. After all, it is not that we don’t advising an Irish county that intends to currently have the know-how and use its preparedness against climate technology to heat, cool, store water and risks as a differentiator to draw inward protect against storms and high seas. investment. Symons believes that money Symons points out that the world already will be attracted to resilience at every provides handy climate analogues. For level: “If you are investing in a property, example, the interactive Analogues you don’t want it to flood or to become Explorer tool developed by Climate unlettable because it is overheating. You Change in Australia shows that under want it to be safe and successful. It’s a high-emissions scenario, Sydney’s important to realize that climate change

SPC Photos temperate climate could be closer to that is not just an issue for governments. of subtropical Brisbane by the end of the There is a lot that corporations Above and left The Pacific islands century. A 2017 paper in the International could and should be doing to make are most vulnerable to sea level and Journal of Climate Change Strategies and themselves resilient.” temperature rise, and to extreme Management explored climate analogues Businesses that start to assess their weather events such as cyclones. WSP throughout Europe, finding that Berlin’s own risk will find they have embarked Opus is working with communities climate will shift progressively south- upon a surprisingly broad examination. in Vanuatu to lead the Restoration of westwards to reach northern Spain by After securing the safety and comfort of Ecosystem Services and Adaptation the end of the 21st century. “Knowing their premises, and the security of their to Climate Change (RESSCUE) that the climate in north Spain is much power, data and other utility functions, project, on a vast site spanning 50km2 hotter and drier, with more frequent and they might then move on to consider of marine and 180km2 of terrestrial intense heat waves, residents of Berlin wider issues such as the ability of their ecosystems. Activities have included could easily apprehend the magnitude of workforce to commute, the security of “Although the worst impacts training local marine champions to climate change and immediately envision their supply chains, and the risks posed monitor reef health, establishing a the type of future climatic conditions by climate change to both investors are yet to come, the probability conservation trust with local tourism they will have to cope with,” said authors and customers. operators, and biodiversity surveys of Guillaume Rohat, Stéphane Goyette and “It is easy for climate risk to sound curves have already shifted. protected forests. The project has been Johannes Flacke. rather apocalyptic,” says Symons. “But The one-in-100-year storm extended to the issue of marine plastic The bigger challenge is the business with change comes opportunity. And waste, which is compounding the case, though there is a persuasive one those who understand the change and is now one-in-20” effects of climate change in the Pacific to be made, argues Nilsson. “People respond positively will be the ones to by poisoning and choking ecosystems. care about losing money more than reap the rewards.” Michael Mondshine, WSP 67 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

THE CHALLENGE BLANK CANVAS TOWELS ARE A MASSIVE One problem, three engineers, no constraints HEADACHE FOR HOTEL RESORTS. CAN TECHNOLOGY TACKLE THE LAUNDRY PILE?

“The hospitality industry is under significant commercial pressure, with room rates stagnating or declining while costs rise. How can we engage and inspire our workforce to be as efficient as possible, while achieving a five-star level of service? For example, what’s the most efficient way to move towels, both clean and dirty, around a 12ha resort? Each weighs 1kg and there are 7,000 of them used across multiple pools and a spa.” John Shamon / chief technical officer / Kerzner International Supermassive Artwork 69 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INGENUITY

1 2 3 A modern twist on the pneumatic tube The perfect job for drones or AVGs Robot bins — and more responsible guests Henry Okraglik / global director, digital / WSP / Australia Matthew Marson / head of smart Monica Feghali / associate, sustainable resource management / buildings / WSP / UK WSP / Middle East When I was a kid, pneumatic tube make an architectural feature out of the systems were really common. In tubes in the same way, instead of hiding Let’s talk about the human element first. This could be managed from an to spread awareness and promote department stores, before cash registers, them. It wouldn’t be that expensive to We don’t want the workforce having operational point of view. I would assume sustainable behaviour among the guests. you paid your money and they’d put it in install and it could be retrofitted quite to touch the towels because that’s not current practice is that the dirty towels This is something trending nowadays in a little capsule. Then it was sucked up easily. You only need a small motor at one a fun part of the job. We’d rather have are transferred directly to the laundry most hotels in the region. Some of them in this tube to a back office where they end driving a fan, and that could be in “The pneumatic tubes could be them talking to people, giving the kind of area once collected. So there is a lot of even offer incentives if guests reuse their would process the order and send the the basement. It’s very basic — that’s the personal service that guests would want back and forth and wasted time on the towels, such as small discounts from the change back in the tube. beauty of it. It would be cheap to run and transparent, so you could because that’s one of the things that transfer given the large area of the hotel. bill or additional reward points through Pneumatic tubes are a very simple kind of cool in an old-school way. watch your towel move through makes the resort a lovely place to go to. One solution would be to allocate some their membership programmes. technology that rely on differentials in You could even make a novelty out of When it comes to dealing with things space in the back-of-house areas for air pressure, created by a fan at one end. it for guests, with access to the network your hotel room and snake like towels, machines are good at interim storage units or rooms where Imagine you have a tube eight or nine in the rooms. They could put their towel repetitive, low value-added tasks so I’d dirty towels can be placed. This would inches in diameter and a capsule that is in some funky capsule, lift a flap and put through the building” suggest two types of technology. The of course need to be monitored to avoid “Automated bins could be slightly less, with tapered ends. You can it into the tube and push a button, and first is automated guided vehicles — overflow from high volume generating configured so that they put anything you like in the capsules. In away it would go. A few minutes later, a AVGs for short. They’re a bit like the areas, which is an opportunity to apply current times, they’re mostly used in the clean one would arrive the same way. The WALL-E trash compactor robots in sensor monitoring technology — there detect when they are full and US to make deposits in drive-in banks, tubes could be transparent, so you could the Pixar movie. An automated guided are several bin brands that offer and in hospitals for transferring medical watch your towel move through your vehicle could go around and hoover automated fill sensor systems. This then move themselves to the samples around different departments. room and snake through the building. up leftover towels, move the dirty ones way, the only transfer trips over large That’s a more complicated system You could also use the tubes for room to a designated place and bring them distances would be from these interim pick-up point” because specimens have to go to many service. Food might be tricky, because the back, like a robotic worker ant. They are rooms to the main laundry area, based on different locales, but a system for a capsules travel at 25ft/s, but things like already used in hospitals — I worked a fixed, monitored schedule. hotel could be much simpler. It’s just toothbrushes, razors or aspirins would on a hospital project in Dublin where Separately, several transfer methods not efficient to have humans go around be absolutely fine. If you’ve forgotten clean linens and food were going to be could be considered to reduce transfer collecting up towels and carting them to your toothbrush, you don’t want to wait delivered to the wards using AVGs. After time and labour costs, and ensure the a laundry facility, so why not have hotel for someone to wander up to your room. all, there’s no point paying someone to wellbeing of the staff. For example, staff send bundles of towels in capsules You usually realize when you go to brush “You could take out a service push something round when it can push electric buggies would be an option using a tube system? They can travel your teeth, so you want your problem elevator, and that could be itself around on its own. in a resort-style hotel where there are over quite large distances — in the early solved quickly. Instead of pushing “1” for As an alternative, if you didn’t want large enough spaces and routes to 1900s, 27 miles of tubes was used for laundry, you could put your request in the the drone shaft. They could fly AVGs taking up floor space, you could accommodate the vehicles. Full bags of New York’s mail system, so a resort-sized capsule and push “2” for room service or use drones instead. They could fly in towels can get quite heavy, so another network should be no problem. The tubes housekeeping, or operate it through an around, pick the towels up and some of the building’s existing service solution to support staff would be to could either end up in the on-site laundry app on your smartphone. drop them off” shafts. Or we could take out a service store them in tetherable bins and use facility or, if laundry is outsourced, to the elevator, and that could be the drone electric pullers or pushers to assist with collection point. I suppose you could shaft. They could fly around, pick the the manual transfer. extend the tubes to the outsourcing towels up and drop them off. Today, you Some manufacturers have been provider’s facility, but that’s probably would need a person to fly the drones, developing automated bins that can a stretch too far. You could also use but in six months to a year they could move independently from one point to robotics at the other end. The ideal would track a set of Bluetooth beacons — you another. These could be configured so be that the towel goes straight into the would place these inexpensive beacons that they detect when they are full and washing machine, and when it reaches along the approved route and the drone move themselves to the pick-up point. a certain number or weight, that triggers looks for that signal and follows it. But in That would remove the manual labour a wash cycle. That’s not a particularly the not-too-distant future, you could fit requirement for some specific tasks. complicated technology either. each drone with a camera and it would Another solution would be to go back A lot of buildings today expose their be able to pick out the towel and work a step and address the source — trying structure and services — you often see out its own route through the building. to reduce this 7,000 towel units per day. exposed cables and ducts. You could That’s maybe three years away. The hotel brand could roll out an initiative

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IN 10 WORDS OR LESS …

“Woodwork design for a “A sketch of my parents’ future lampstand from recycled wood summer house” and ropes” Helena Klintström Monica Feghali 69 15

“A diagram (badly) atempting “Cognitive merger of humans to illustrate strands of and technology on a deserted planning theory” beach” Iain White 59 16 Agustin Chevez

“A schematic house “I helped my five-year- to explain energy use old daughter draw our THE POSSIBLE to 160 students” house for homework” Håkan Nilsson 58 20 Jon Coaffee What’s the last thing you drew by hand? “A paleolithic hand- “Storyboard in a axe during a keynote birthday card for my lecture at a conference” girlfriend” Rebecca Chamberlain 46 25 Kartikeya Tripathi

“I sketched a gingerbread “An outline for a thought drone for an office holiday leadership report” party” Julie Alexander Adrienne Lindgren 43 26

“A conceptual sketch for a “Design for a new new airport on the iPad” woodburning stove for Antoinette Nassopoulos- my house” Erickson 32 29 Tim Morrison WHAT IF WE CAN?

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