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Home , BeLeave, Brexit Alliance, Get Britain Out, Martin Kettle, Operation Yellowhammer

2016 and on BBC

What you need to know about [excerpts]

Why is Britain leaving the European What's happening now? Union? The UK has voted to leave the . It is scheduled to depart at 11pm UK time on Friday 29 A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly March, 2019. The UK and EU have provisionally agreed everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on on the three "divorce" issues of how much the UK owes Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK the EU, what happens to the Northern Ireland border and should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was and EU citizens living in the UK. Talks are now moving 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting. on to future relations - after agreement was reached on a 21-month "transition" period to smooth the way to post- What was the breakdown across the UK? Brexit relations. England voted for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%. Wales What is the 'transition' period? also voted for Brexit, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland It refers to a period of time after 29 March, 2019, to 31 both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain December, 2020, to get everything in place and allow by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted businesses and others to prepare for the moment when Remain and 44.2% Leave. the new post-Brexit rules between the UK and the EU begin. It also allows more time for the details of the new What do 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit mean? relationship to be fully hammered out. Free movement will continue during the transition period as the EU These terms are used during debate on the terms of the wanted. The UK will be able to strike its own trade deals UK's departure from the EU. There is no strict definition - although they won't be able to come into force until 1 of either, but they are used to refer to the closeness of the January 2021. UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit.

What does Brexit mean? So at one extreme, "hard" Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement It is a word that used as a shorthand way of saying the of people even if it meant leaving the single market or UK leaving the EU - merging the words Britain and exit having to give up hopes of aspects of free trade to get Brexit, in the same way as a possible Greek exit arrangements. At the other end of the scale, a "soft" from the euro was dubbed Grexit in the past. Brexit might follow a similar path to Norway, which is a member of the single market and has to accept the free movement of people as a result of that.

1 2016 and on BBC

2 2016-06-20 NYT - 1

Brexit, Explained: 7 Questions About What It Means and Why It Matters The Interpreter By AMANDA TAUB JUNE 20, 2016

Credit Hayoung Jeon/European Pressphoto Agency Boats campaigning to exit the European Union sailed by the British Parliament during the Battle of the Thames last week. Credit Niklas WASHINGTON — With a landmark vote approaching Halle'N/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images on Thursday on whether Britain will leave the European The debate leading up to this week’s vote is playing out, Union, two recent events highlighted the stakes and the however, as a broader choice over what national values unique Britishness of the “Brexit” debate. to prioritize. Last Wednesday, in what Britons took to calling the Pro-Brexit advocates have framed leaving the European Battle of the Thames, both sides sent flag-waving Union as necessary to protect, or perhaps restore, the flotillas down the river to advertise their cause. The country’s identity: its culture, independence and place in “Leave” campaign blasted the theme song from “The the world. This argument is often expressed by Great Escape” from Westminster Bridge, and Bob opposition to immigration. Geldof, a prominent campaigner in the “Remain” campaign, bellowed facts about fishing from boat- “Remain” supporters typically argue that staying in the mounted speakers. union is better for the British economy and that concerns about migration and other issues are not important The next day, a man fatally shot and stabbed a member enough to outweigh the economic consequences of of Parliament, Jo Cox, who supported staying in the leaving. European Union. The man shouted, “My name is death to traitors! Freedom for Britain!” at a court appearance The debate has also cut along the country’s famously on Saturday. The killing has shocked the country and deep class divides: Voters with less money and drawn attention to the increasingly heated national education are more likely to support leaving the union. debate. Robert Tombs, a historian at the University of Cambridge, said this stems from a sense of abandonment This is much more than a vote on membership in a 28- among poor and working-class Britons. The Brexit nation bloc. It is about national and social identity, debate has become a vessel for anti-establishment and Britain’s place in the world and the future of the anti-elite feelings directed at the leaders of mainstream European project. British political parties as much as at Europe. 1. What is Brexit? Neither side is defending the European Union as a A portmanteau of the words “Britain” and “exit,” it is meaningful or admirable institution. In part, this speaks the nickname for a British exit of the European Union to particularly British views that the rest of Europe is after the June 23 referendum asking voters: “Should the somehow alien. remain a member of the European This also reflects a Euroskepticism, or opposition to the Union or leave the European Union?” European Union, rising across the bloc as the union veers from crisis to crisis. In this way, the Brexit vote is a particularly noticeable manifestation of a sense that 3 2016-06-20 NYT - 2

European institutions have fallen short of their lofty leaving. Rather than defending the European Union or promises and have created burdens, such as absorbing immigration as good for Britain, the campaign warns migrants or bailing out troubled economies, that many that leaving would be disastrous for the British economy. Europeans are tired of bearing. 2. What is the case for leaving? A lot is implied in one of the campaign’s slogans, “Take control.” Britain’s loss of full authority over its economic policies and regulations has so rankled many of the country’s citizens that it has spawned an entire genre of urban legends over the years, called “Euromyths.” These stories usually feature some aspect of classically British culture that is supposedly under threat. One claimed that double-decker buses were to be banned, while another suggested that fish and chips would have to be written in Latin on menus. The subtext is barely Supporters of remaining in the union on the Westminster Bridge as a flotilla of boats campaigning to exit sailed up the Thames in London subliminal at all: Gray-suited Brussels bureaucrats are last week. Credit Stefan Wermuth/Reuters the enemy of Britishness, a threat to Britain’s identity in all its deep-fried, double-decker glory. Most economists agree with that claim. Europe is Britain’s most important export market and its greatest “There are two things at play here,” said Brian Klaas, a source of foreign direct investment, and union fellow in comparative politics at the London School of membership has been crucial to establishing London as a Economics. “One is the cultural nostalgia for Britain’s global financial center. A British exit would jeopardize lost place in the world. This idea that Britain used to that status — and the high-paying jobs that come with it. matter, Britain used to be able to do things without having to consult Brussels.” The mere fact of the referendum has already affected the economy; the pound is at its lowest valuation in seven Then there is immigration. “There’s this feeling that years. we’re losing our cultural identity and our national identity,” Mr. Klaas said, “at the same time that there’s But it is telling that those who want to stay, including this influx of people who are willing to work for low Prime Minister and the leadership of wages.” Britain’s two main political parties, have not expressed much enthusiasm for the European Union itself. Instead, A 2013 British Social Attitudes Survey found that more their arguments are focused narrowly on British self- than three-quarters of Britons want the country’s interest. Their message is not that membership in the immigration policies reduced, and about 56 percent said bloc is an exciting opportunity so much as a basic they should be reduced “a lot.” economic necessity. Though Britain has accepted a small number of refugees That is a sign of how unpopular the union has become relative to other European countries, British tabloids throughout Britain, according Mr. Klaas, partly because have implied the country is being overrun by an of bad public relations. “If you get funding from Europe uncontrollable “swarm” or “tide” of foreigners. Labor for a road, you take credit,” he said. “But if you can’t get migration, particularly from Eastern Europe, has often funding, it’s Europe’s fault.” been painted as economically threatening. 4. Why are Britons so wary of Europe? Terrence G. Peterson, a fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, said Spend enough time in the United Kingdom, and you will there is “a sense that Britain has lost something, that it hear people refer to “the Continent.” Travel agency has lost its sovereignty.” windows advertise flights and package tours “to Europe,” as if it were someplace else. “It can’t close its borders in the way that it wants,” he said. “It can’t have the economic policies it chooses.” 3. What is the case for staying? What is most striking about the “Remain” campaign is what it has not done: countered the arguments for

4 2016-06-20 NYT - 3

Mr. Peterson said the deeper issue is that the union remains an unfinished project, which allowed these economic and migration crises to become so severe. The European Union never developed centralized political institutions strong enough to manage its diverse constituent countries. Individual nations have little incentive to make sacrifices for the common good, and European unity is weakest when it is needed most. 6. What will happen to Britain if it leaves?

Prime Minister David Cameron sips from an “I’m In” mug during a Projections differ significantly over the precise visit to a television company in London last week. Credit Gareth economic effect, but there is a consensus that leaving Fuller/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images would hurt Britain financially, at least in the short term. As Mr. Peterson of Stanford put it, “Britain has always Without access to the union’s open markets, Britain kept Europe at a distance, even when they were would probably lose trade and investment. And while favorable to the E.U.” the influx of migrant workers has created anxiety over Britain initially refused to join the European Economic British culture and identity, losing that labor force could Community when it was founded in 1957. It became a lead to lower productivity, slower economic growth and member in 1973, only to have a crisis of confidence that decreased job opportunities, a study by Britain’s led to a similar exit referendum two years later. (The National Institute of Economic and Social Research pro-Europe campaign won that round with 67 percent of found. the vote.) A Brexit could also quickly spawn, err, a “Scexit.” A strain of populist opposition to Europe remained in the , the first minister of Scotland, has said decades that followed. Britain has never joined other that if Britain votes to leave the European Union, she countries in using the euro as currency, for example, or will hold a new referendum in which Scots could vote to participated in the union’s Schengen Area open-borders exit Britain — and then rejoin the union as an agreement. independent nation. 5. O.K., so why now? Scotland’s voters rejected such a measure by nearly 10 points in 2014, but analysts say a Brexit could change Recent challenges within the European Union have that because the Scots overwhelmingly support given Euroskepticism new urgency. European Union membership. “There wouldn’t be a referendum without the eurozone If Scotland were to leave, that could dramatically alter crisis, which made the E.U. look badly organized and Britain’s political character, as Scotland’s members of dysfunctional,” said Charles Grant, the director of the Parliament lean to the left. Centre for European Reform, a London-based research group. “The refugee crisis hasn’t helped either. It made 7. What are the wider ramifications? the E.U. seem out of control.” Britain makes up about a sixth of the European Union’s economy. A Brexit, Mr. Klaas said, “would be akin to California and Florida being lopped off the U.S. economy.” That destabilization could affect the United States’ economy: Last week, the Federal Reserve in Washington cited the possibility of a Brexit as a reason to not raise interest rates. There could be political consequences, as well. If Britain leaves the union, that could give momentum to the nationalistic, anti-migrant message and policies of

Prime Minister David Cameron, left, and Labour Party leader populist, far-right parties that are already rising across , right, leave flowers near where Jo Cox, a Parliament Europe. member, was killed last week. Credit Nigel Roddis/European Pressphoto Agency The implications for the European project itself are unclear, but that uncertainty may be the greatest threat to 5 2016-06-20 NYT - 4 the union, which has helped bring Europe 70 years of peace and is already under growing strain. It also undermines trust between member states, whose commitments seem less reliable every time one of them toys with leaving. “Members of the eurozone will realize that things can come unstuck,” Mr. Grant said. “Entropy can happen.” In his view, Germany already has too much power in the bloc, and a British exit would make that imbalance more pronounced. It would undermine the European Union’s legitimacy and make it more difficult to respond to internal crises, like the Greek economy or the migrant influx, and to outside security threats, he said. Mr. Klaas said, “A more unified Europe is a powerful counterbalance to people like Vladimir Putin.” “Putin has stayed silent on this,” he said of the Russian leader. “But he’s probably silently cheering the pro- Brexit side.”

6 2016-10-27 NYT - 1

‘Brexit’: Explaining Britain’s Vote on European Union Membership By STEVEN ERLANGER updated on October 27, 2016 Britain held a referendum on June 23 on whether to in the world, and that leaving would be leave the European Union, a process often referred economically costly. to as “Brexit.” The Times prepared an updated explainer of the basics.

Credit Toby Melville/Reuters

What are pollsters and bettors predicting? Supporters of Grassroots Out campaign outside the Electoral As the campaign progressed, the odds against Commission in London in March. Credit Andy Rain/European Pressphoto Agency “Brexit” gradually became smaller, then they rose again. Betfair, a betting exchange, had the “Remain” What is Britain deciding? camp with an 80 percent chance of winning on the The referendum question will ask voters whether day of the vote. the country should “remain a member of the Who is arguing to stay, and who to go? European Union” or “leave the European Union.” REMAIN Prime Minister David Cameron leads the “Remain” camp, and he could lose his job if his effort fails. Behind him are most of the Conservative government he leads, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, which is strongly pro-Europe. Most independent economists and large businesses favor staying in, as do the most recent heads of Britain’s intelligence services. President Obama, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and

A slogan of the “” campaign was projected onto President Xi Jinping of China also want Britain to the White Cliffs of Dover in southern England this month. stay in. Credit Peter Nicholls/Reuters LEAVE The “Leave” camp is led by , The reasons for and against the justice minister, and , the former Those who favor leaving argue that the European mayor of London. Nearly half the Conservative Union has changed enormously over the last four members of Parliament favor leaving, as do the decades with regard to the size and the reach of its members of the U.K. Independence Party, or UKIP, bureaucracy, diminishing and and its leader, . Their main issues are sovereignty. sovereignty and immigration. Those who want to stay say that a medium-size Abroad, the French National Front leader, Marine island needs to be part of a larger bloc of like- Le Pen, favors Brexit, as do other anti-Europe minded countries to have real influence and security parties in Germany, the Netherlands and elsewhere. 7 2016-10-27 NYT - 2

A vigil in Parliament Square in London for Jo Cox, a member of Parliament who was killed in northern England on Has a vote like this happened before? Thursday. Credit Daniel Leal-Olivas/Agence France-Presse — Getty Yes. A referendum was held in 1975, two years Images after Britain joined the European Economic Community, on whether it should stay. More than Campaigning stopped for several days. Why? 67 percent of Britons voted in favor. Jo Cox, a member of Parliament, was shot and killed outside a library in her district of Birstall, England, last week. With the referendum days away, campaigning was immediately suspended as a gesture of respect. It resumed on Sunday. Ms. Cox, 41, was a vocal supporter of Britain’s remaining in the bloc. When the suspect in her killing, Thomas Mair, was asked in court for his name, he answered, “My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain.” London is a major financial gateway, the biggest and busiest in Europe and rivaling Wall Street as a hub of international trading in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Credit Andy Haslam for The New York Times What impact would an exit have on Britain’s economy? This is an essential and divisive question. The economic effect of an exit would depend on what settlement was negotiated, especially on whether Britain would retain access to the single market for duty-free trade and financial services. But that Credit Francois Lenoir/Reuters would probably require accepting freedom of What is the history? movement and labor for European Union citizens, The European Union began in 1951 as the European which is one of the main complaints the “Leave” Coal and Steel Community, an effort by six nations camp has about bloc membership. to heal the fissures of World War II through duty- Most economists favor remaining in the bloc and free trade. In 1957, the created the say an exit would cut growth, weaken the pound European Economic Community, or Common and hurt the City of London, Britain’s financial Market. center. Even economists who favor an exit say Britain tried to join later, but President Charles de growth would be affected in the short and medium Gaulle of France vetoed its application in 1963 and terms, though they also say Britain would be better in 1967. Britain finally joined in 1973. off by 2030. In late October, the chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, said that the better-than-expected

8 2016-10-27 NYT - 3 0.5 percent growth in gross domestic product in the Unlike in general elections, members of the House third quarter was evidence that the British economy of Lords may vote, as can Commonwealth citizens was able to cope with Brexit. in Gibraltar, a British overseas territory. Citizens of the European Union living in Britain cannot vote, unless they are citizens of Cyprus, Ireland or Malta.

Prime Minister David Cameron in Warsaw during an official visit to Poland this year. Credit European Pressphoto Credit Andy Rain/European Pressphoto Agency Why now? Why the unusual name? It has to do with a decades-long rift in the governing Conservative Party. A vocal minority has demanded The referendum is often called Brexit, for British that Britain leave the European Union since the time exit from the European Union. It is a variant of the of . That minority grew in label Grexit, invented during the Greek debt crisis opposition during the years, and views (which, by the way, is not over). on Europe have become a litmus test for Tory candidates, because grass-roots Conservatives tend to favor a British exit. To pacify his party and undermine the anti- European Union U.K. Independence Party, Mr. Cameron promised to hold the referendum should he be re-elected prime minister. Nearly half of all Tory members of Parliament, including six cabinet ministers, now favor leaving the bloc.

Credit Philippe Wojazer/Reuters Is this vote final? Yes, at least for the foreseeable future. If Britons vote to leave, there will be an initial two-year negotiation with the European Union about the terms of the divorce, which is unlikely to be amicable. The negotiation will decide Britain’s relationship

Unlike in general elections, Commonwealth citizens in with the bloc. The major issues would surround Gibraltar, a British overseas territory, can vote. trade. If Britain wants to remain in the European Union’s common market — the world’s largest Who is voting? trading bloc, with 500 million people — Brussels is British citizens 18 and older can vote, as can expected to exact a steep price, in particular to citizens abroad who have been registered to vote at discourage other countries from leaving. home in the last 15 years. Also eligible are residents of Britain who are citizens of Ireland or of the Commonwealth, which consists of 53 countries, including Australia, Canada, India and South Africa. 9 2017-02-02 Guardian - 1

Brexit white paper: key points explained

All you need to know about the government’s outline for how the UK plans to leave the EU

The paper says the government will “work with the devolved administrations on an approach to returning powers from the EU that works for the whole of the UK and reflects the interests of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales” but does not go into specifics. It also promises that no decisions currently taken by the devolved administrations will be taken away from them, and indeed that more decisions will be devolved (it does not say which). And it says it will pay particular attention to the Isle of Man, Channel Islands and Gibraltar, all of which have unique relationships with the Jon Henley European affairs correspondent EU. Thursday 2 February 2017 On the island of Ireland and the common travel area with A day after parliament voted overwhelmingly to give the UK, the paper notes the UK and Irish economies are the power to trigger article 50, the “deeply integrated” and says the government will work government presented MPs with its formal policy paper to “develop and strengthen” those ties after Brexit. setting out how the UK proposes to leave the EU. It says it aims to retain “as seamless and frictionless a Here are the key points of the Brexit white paper, which border as possible” between Northern Ireland and the essentially builds and expands on May’s Lancaster Republic, and wants Irish and UK citizens to be able to House speech last month. It amounts to a list of continue to move freely north-south and east-west, objectives, many of which will not necessarily be easy to “while protecting the integrity of the UK’s immigration achieve. system”. Again, it does not say how. Sovereignty, great repeal bill and control of UK Immigration and reciprocal citizens’ rights laws On the rights of EU nationals living in the UK and vice The paper says the British parliament has been sovereign versa, the white paper goes no further than May’s speech. throughout the UK’s EU membership, “but it has not It says securing their status is “one of this government’s always felt like that” – a striking comment. early priorities for the forthcoming negotiations” and It says the government will bring forward a separate reiterates that “the UK remains ready to give people the white paper on the great repeal bill, which was first certainty they want … at the earliest opportunity”. (The announced by May in her Conservative party conference EU-27 have always seen this as part of article 50 speech last year to remove the European Communities negotiations). Act of 1972 from the UK statute book and convert the It says it is consulting with expatriate groups abroad and body of existing EU law into domestic law. EU businesses and other groups “to ensure we The paper confirms that “wherever practical and understand their priorities”, and “recognises the priority appropriate” the same rules and laws will apply in the placed on easy access to healthcare by UK nationals UK on the day after it leaves the EU as did before. living in the EU” – a key concern of many, particularly pensioners. It also confirms that the government intends to “take control of our own laws”, which will mean “bringing to On controlling immigration, the paper offers no clarity. an end the jurisdiction of the European court of justice in It says the government is “considering very carefully” the UK” and establishing a new mechanism for resolving the options open to it and working to “understand the future disputes between the UK and the EU. impacts on the different sectors of the economy and the labour market”. The union and Ireland

10 2017-02-02 Guardian - 2 Businesses and communities will be able to contribute contention with the EU27 – but says there is “much we their views, it says, and suggests – for the first time with can do to prepare and to achieve now while respecting regard to immigration – that “there may be a phased our obligations as members”. process of implementation”, to give companies and It also says work is already under way on establishing individuals time to plan and prepare. Britain’s own schedules covering trade in goods and It says EU students can continue to come and study, in services at the WTO, aimed as far as possible at the short term at least, but says nothing about future replicating those it currently has as an EU member. access for EU workers. It also says workers’ rights under The paper also says Britain aims to “continue to EU law will be preserved after Brexit. collaborate with EU partners” on a key part of its new EU trade, single market, customs union and industrial strategy: science, research and technology. budget Many academics expect this to become considerably more difficult after Brexit. The white paper reiterates that the government aims to secure “the freest and most frictionless trade possible in Security and crime cooperation goods and services” with the EU outside the single As May has already said, the UK will seek to continue market and via “an ambitious and comprehensive free working with the EU “to preserve UK and European trade agreement”. security and to fight terrorism and uphold justice across It also wants to be outside the customs union, so it can Europe”, the paper says. negotiate its own trade deals, but would like “a new It says the government will aim to retain and develop customs agreement”, which should be theoretically existing cooperation in initiatives like Europol, the possible thanks to new technology. Again, this does not European arrest warrant, the Schengen information go further than May’s speech. system, the new EU passenger name records, and the We are told once more that the UK will not seek to adopt European criminal records information system. an existing model used by other countries, but try to In terms of security and defence, it also promises to “take in elements” of the single market in certain areas – “remain committed to European security and add value in other words, bespoke deals for important business to EU foreign and security policy” – an offer that may sectors. From the EU perspective, all this is ambitious: it well prove valuable in the exit negotiations. sounds suspiciously like cherry-picking. The white paper says the government aims to deliver “a The paper plays up the financial services card, which the smooth, mutually beneficial exit” but says this will government plainly considers a strong one: the EU has a require “a coherent and coordinated approach on both clear interest in “mutual cooperation arrangements”, it sides”. Article 50 will be triggered no later than the end says, describing the City as Europe’s only global hub for of March, it repeats. money, trading and investment on which the EU will continue to rely. It acknowledges it is “in no one’s interests for there to be a cliff-edge for business or a threat to stability”, saying It confirms the UK will leave the Euratom treaty, the the government would like “to have reached an legal framework for nuclear power, but says a new agreement about our future partnership” by the end of relationship will be negotiated, and it says the UK’s the article 50 process and repeating May’s suggestion of future status with EU agencies regulating areas such as variable “phased processes of implementation” to give medicines, aviation, food safety and financial services everyone time to plan and prepare for the new will also be part of discussions. arrangements. And there will be no more “vast contributions” to the EU The paper also reiterates the prime minister’s remarks budget, as May already said. that “no deal for the UK is better than a bad deal for the Trade with other countries; research UK” – and suggests that, to mitigate against the impact of not getting the deal it wants from the EU, the The paper repeats May’s pledge to make the UK a government will prepare legislation “to ensure our “champion of free trade” and says it will seek bilateral economic and other functions van continue”. free trade agreements and participate in multilateral negotiations through the World Trade Organisation. It does not say what the legislation will contain, or what future economic model the government might envisage. It acknowledges Britain “cannot agree new trade deals until after we have left the EU” – a possible bone of

11 2017-03-08 BBC - 1

[Excerpts] Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU

By Alex Hunt & Brian Wheeler - BBC News of leaving the EU by the end of March. She set out some details of her negotiating hopes in her key speech on 8 March 2017 Brexit. This article is designed to be an easy-to-understand What about the economy, so far? guide to the UK's vote to leave the European Union. It is regularly updated with new questions answered. David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior figures who wanted to stay in the EU What does Brexit mean? predicted an immediate economic crisis if the UK voted It is a word that has become used as a shorthand way of to leave. House prices would fall, there would be a saying the UK leaving the EU - merging the words recession with a big rise in unemployment - and an Britain and exit to get Brexit, in a same way as a emergency Budget would be needed to bring in the large possible Greek exit from the euro was dubbed Grexit in cuts in spending that would be needed. the past. The pound did slump the day after the referendum - and Why is Britain leaving the European Union? remains around 15% lower against the dollar and 10% A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly down against the euro - but the predictions of immediate everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on doom have not proved accurate with the UK economy Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave Germany's 1.9% among the world's G7 leading won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was industrialised nations. 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting. Inflation has been inching higher - to 1.8% in January - its highest rate for two and a half years, but What was the breakdown across the UK? unemployment has continued to fall, to stand at an 11 England voted for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%. Wales year low of 4.8%. Annual house price increases have also voted for Brexit, with Leave getting 52.5% of the fallen from 9.4% in June but were still at an inflation- vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland busting 7.4% in December, according to official ONS both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain figures. by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave. What is the European Union? What changed in government after the referendum? The European Union - often known as the EU - is an economic and political partnership involving 28 Britain got a new Prime Minister - Theresa May. The European countries. It began after World War Two to former home secretary took over from David Cameron, foster economic co-operation, with the idea that who announced he was resigning on the day he lost the countries which trade together are more likely to avoid referendum. Like Mr Cameron, Mrs May was against going to war with each other. Britain leaving the EU but she played only a very low- key role in the campaign and was never seen as much of It has since grown to become a "single market" allowing an enthusiast for the EU. She became PM without facing goods and people to move around, basically as if the a full Conservative leadership contest after her key rivals member states were one country. It has its own currency, from what had been the Leave side pulled out. the euro, which is used by 19 of the member countries, its own parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range How has the new PM done so far? of areas - including on the environment, transport, It's not for us to grade politicians' performance, but consumer rights and even things such as mobile phone opinion polls give the Conservative Party a huge lead charges. over the largest opposition party, Labour, and she So when will Britain actually leave it? recently became the first prime minister to gain an opposition seat in a by-election for 35 years. Theresa For the UK to leave the EU it has to invoke an May's key message has been that "Brexit means Brexit" agreement called Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which and she has said she aims to trigger the two year process gives the two sides two years to agree the terms of the 12 2017-03-08 BBC - 2 split. Theresa May has said she intends to trigger this single market. Although there has been speculation for process by the end of March 2017, meaning the UK will months about the issue, it would have meant the UK be expected to have left by the summer of 2019, staying under the auspices of the European Court of depending on the precise timetable agreed during the Justice and having to allow unlimited EU immigration, negotiations. The government will also enact a Great under freedom of movement rules. Repeal Bill which will end the primacy of EU law in the Both sides want trade to continue after Brexit with the UK. This Great Repeal Bill is expected to incorporate all UK seeking a positive outcome for those who wish to EU legislation into UK law in one lump, after which the trade goods and services" - such as those in the City of government will decide over a period of time which London and wanting a "comprehensive free trade deal" parts to keep, change or remove. giving the UK "the greatest possible access" to the single Who is going to negotiate Britain's exit from the EU? market. Mrs May says she wants the UK to reach a new customs union deal with the EU. A customs union is Theresa May set up a government department, headed by where countries agree not to impose tariffs on each veteran Conservative MP and Leave campaigner David others' goods and have a common tariff on goods Davis, to take responsibility for Brexit. Former defence coming in from elsewhere. The UK is currently part of secretary, Liam Fox, who also campaigned to leave the the EU customs union but that stops the UK being able EU, was given the new job of international trade to do its own trade deals with other countries. secretary and Boris Johnson, who was a leader of the official Leave campaign, is foreign secretary. These men What do "soft" and "hard" Brexit mean? - dubbed the Three Brexiteers - are each set to play roles These terms have increasingly been used as debate in negotiations with the EU and seek out new focused on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. international agreements, although it will be Mrs May, There is no strict definition of either, but they are used to as prime minister, who will have the final say. refer to the closeness of the UK's relationship with the How long will it take for Britain to leave the EU? EU post-Brexit. Once Article 50 has been triggered, the UK will have So at one extreme, "hard" Brexit could involve the UK two years to negotiate its withdrawal. But no one really refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement knows how the Brexit process will work - Article 50 was of people in order to maintain access to the EU single only created in late 2009 and it has never been used. market. At the other end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit Former Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, now might follow a similar path to Norway, which is a Chancellor, wanted Britain to remain in the EU, and he member of the single market and has to accept the free has suggested it could take up to six years for the UK to movement of people as a result. complete exit negotiations. The terms of Britain's exit What does the fall in the value of the pound mean for will have to be agreed by 27 national parliaments, a prices in the shops? process which could take some years, he has argued. People travelling overseas from the UK have found their EU law still stands in the UK until it ceases being a pounds are buying fewer euros or dollars after the Brexit member. The UK will continue to abide by EU treaties vote. The day-to-day spending impact is likely to be and laws, but not take part in any decision-making. more significant. Even if the pound regains some of its Why will Brexit take so long? value, currency experts expect it to remain at least 10% below where it was on 23 June, in the long term. Unpicking 43 years of treaties and agreements covering thousands of different subjects was never going to be a This means imported goods will consequently get more straightforward task. It is further complicated by the fact expensive - some price rises for food, clothing and that it has never been done before and negotiators will, homeware goods have already been seen and the issue to some extent, be making it up as they go along. The was most notably illustrated by the dispute between post-Brexit trade deal is likely to be the most complex Tesco and Marmite's makers about whether prices would part of the negotiation because it needs the unanimous be put up or not in the stores. approval of more than 30 national and regional The latest UK inflation figures, for January, showed the parliaments across Europe, some of whom may want to CPI inflation rate rising to 1.8%, its highest level for two hold referendums. and a half years, with signs of more cost pressures set to The likely focus of negotiations between the UK and feed through in the months to come. EU Could there be a second referendum? Following Theresa May's Brexit speech in January we It seems highly unlikely. Both the Conservatives and the know that the UK is not intending to stay in the EU's Labour Party have ruled out another referendum, arguing 13 2017-03-08 BBC - 3 that it would be an undemocratic breach of trust with the Could the necessary legislation pass the Commons, British people who clearly voted to Leave. The Liberal given that a lot of MPs - all SNP and Lib Dems, nearly Democrats - who have just a handful of MPs - have all Labour and many Conservatives - were in favour of vowed to halt Brexit and keep Britain in the EU if they staying? The referendum result is not legally binding - were to win the next general election. Parliament still has to pass the laws that will of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the Some commentators, including former House of 1972 European Communities Act. Commons clerk Lord Lisvane, have argued that a further referendum would be needed to ratify whatever deal the The withdrawal agreement also has to be ratified by UK hammers out with the EU, but there are few signs Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons political leaders view this as a viable option. could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library report. In practice, Conservative MPs Will MPs get a vote on the Brexit deal? who voted to remain in the EU would be whipped to Yes. Theresa May has appeared keen to avoid a vote on vote with the government. Any who defied the whip her negotiating stance, to avoid having to give away her would have to face the wrath of voters at the next priorities, but she has said there will be a Commons and general election. Lords vote to approve whatever deal the UK and the rest One scenario that could see the referendum result of the EU agree at the end of the two year process. It is overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a worth mentioning that any deal also has to be agreed by party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, the European Parliament - with British MEPs getting a got elected and then claimed that the election mandate chance to vote on it there. topped the referendum one. Two-thirds of MPs would Some say we could still remain in the single market - have to vote for a general election to be held before the but what is a single market? next scheduled one in 2020. The single market is seen by its advocates as the EU's What is the 'red tape' that opponents of the EU biggest achievement and one of the main reasons it was complain about? set up in the first place. Ged, from Liverpool, suspects "red tape" is a euphemism Britain was a member of a free trade area in Europe for employment rights and environmental protection. before it joined what was then known as the common According to the Open Europe think tank, four of the top market. In a free trade area countries can trade with each five most costly EU regulations are either employment other without paying tariffs - but it is not a single market or environment-related. The UK renewable energy because the member states do not have to merge their strategy, which the think-tank says costs £4.7bn a year, economies together. tops the list. The working time directive (£4.2bn a year) The European Union single market, which was - which limits the working week to 48 hours - and the temporary agency workers directive (£2.1bn a year), completed in 1992, allows the free movement of goods, services, money and people within the European Union, giving temporary staff many of the same rights as as if it was a single country. permanent ones - are also on the list. It is possible to set up a business or take a job anywhere There is nothing to stop a future UK government reproducing these regulations in British law following within it. The idea was to boost trade, create jobs and lower prices. But it requires common law-making to the decision to leave the EU. And the costs of so-called ensure products are made to the same technical standards "red tape" will not necessarily disappear overnight - if Britain opted to follow the "Norway model" and and imposes other rules to ensure a "level playing field". remained in the most of the Critics say it generates too many petty regulations and EU-derived laws would remain in place. robs members of control over their own affairs. Mass migration from poorer to richer countries has also raised questions about the free movement rule. Has any other member state ever left the EU? No nation state has ever left the EU. But Greenland, one of Denmark's overseas territories, held a referendum in 1982, after gaining a greater degree of self government, and voted by 52% to 48% to leave, which it duly did after a period of negotiation. Could MPs block an EU exit? 14 2018-02-14 New York Times

Boris Johnson Warns Against a Brexit Do-Over

February 14, 2018 good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or me being reincarnated as an olive.” By STEPHEN CASTLE But more recently — and plausibly — he admitted his LONDON — No one polarizes opinion over Britain’s ambitions, likening his approach to becoming leader to withdrawal from the European Union quite like Boris grabbing a football if it “came loose from the back of the Johnson, the flamboyant foreign secretary, who in 2016 scrum,” a term from Rugby football akin to a fumble in helped persuade Britons to quit a bloc that he once American football. accused of trying to unify the continent just as Napoleon and Hitler tried to do. In 2016 that ball slipped, agonizingly, from his grasp after the Brexit referendum, when Mr. Johnson was So why, exactly, would Mr. Johnson try to woo the large abandoned by key allies and forced to withdraw from the minority who voted to remain? contest to replace the former prime minister, David In a speech on Wednesday, Mr. Johnson called on his Cameron, who quit after the plebiscite. Theresa May opponents to unite around his vision of British went on to take the crown. withdrawal from the European Union, or Brexit, while But Mr. Johnson may be sensing another moment of warning that any rethinking of the decision itself would opportunity, as Mrs. May struggles to control her cabinet be a “disastrous mistake.” amid calls from some of her own lawmakers for her to A second vote would bring “another year of wrangling step aside. and turmoil and feuding in which the whole country Brexit has caught her in an unforgiving political vise. A would lose,” he argued in a speech that skirted around “soft”, departure, protecting business by retaining close the tough economic questions about withdrawal that economic ties to the bloc, is being opposed by Brexit have split a bitterly divided British cabinet. enthusiasts in the cabinet, including Mr. Johnson. Brexit, Mr. Johnson insisted, meant an “outward-looking But a “hard Brexit,” or clean break, of the type such liberal global future,” and was not “some un-British right-wing and Brexit supporters favor, could be rejected spasm of bad manners” or a “great V-sign from the cliffs by Parliament, plunging Mrs. May’s government into a of Dover.” terminal crisis. Many who wished to remain in the European Union see That conundrum has paralyzed decision making in it as exactly such a gesture — a blend of nationalism and London, leaving Mrs. May looking weak, unable to tell nostalgia — and analysts rated his prospects of winning European Union negotiators (or the British public) what them over as close to zero. future relationship she wants with the bloc. “The idea that he has traction with remain voters is Mr. Johnson’s was the first in a series of speeches by absurd,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen ministers — including one by Mrs. May scheduled for Mary University of London, “so it has to be about Saturday — designed to fill that vacuum. But if this something else, and that has to be about keeping himself speech is any indication, the British public and European in the public eye.” negotiators may be disappointed. It would not be the first time. Last year he caused a stir Mr. Johnson provided little in the way of new ideas or before the Conservative Party’s annual conference by approaches in his remarks, which a Labour lawmaker, publishing a lengthy essay on his Brexit vision. More Yvette Cooper, dismissed as “waffly, bumbling, empty.” recently, he made headlines with calls for higher health spending, perhaps seeking to justify his widely debunked Some believe that Mr. Johnson is looking for a pretext to claim that quitting the European Union would free up quit the cabinet over Brexit and cause a leadership crisis, around $500 million a week for the National Health and on Wednesday he avoided a reporter’s question Service. about whether he would stay in the government if he should lose the internal debate over the terms of Years ago, Mr. Johnson’s famously dismissed his withdrawal. prospects of becoming prime minister as being “about as 15 2018-02-14 New York Times

These are nervous times for Mr. Johnson. He has been weakened by his performance as foreign secretary, which has been criticized as accident-prone and lightweight. Meanwhile, he has encountered unexpected competition for the Brexit spotlight in the form of Jacob Rees-Mogg, a caricature patrician with impeccable manners, a socially conservative philosophy and hard-line pro- Brexit views. If there is a contest to succeed Mrs. May, the top two contenders will be chosen by Conservative lawmakers, but the final choice is up to party members, now thought to number around 80,000 people. Among these activists, hard-line Brexit supporters, mainly from an older age category, are thought to be overrepresented. They seem to be warming to Mr. Rees- Mogg, who has transformed himself from a political curiosity to a front-runner for the leadership, finishing above Mr. Johnson in some surveys of party members. Mr. Rees-Mogg’s rise was accelerated last month when Mrs. May’s botched cabinet reshuffle inadvertently opened a vacancy for him to lead the — a gathering of hard Brexit lawmakers — giving him a platform unencumbered by any need to toe the government line. His brand of direct, upper-class speaking has given him celebrity status and won him a set of followers now nicknamed the Mogglodytes. “He is on your TV, he is on your Instagram feed, he is at the Cambridge Union,” wrote one newspaper columnist, referring to the ancient university’s debating society, and joking that it was only a matter of time before Mr. Rees- Mogg was helping draw the numbers on the National Lottery. Mr. Johnson’s allies put the best gloss on the rise of Mr. Rees-Mogg, suggesting that his more extreme views (he opposes abortion even in the case of rape, for example) allow Mr. Johnson the political space to promote himself as a more generally acceptable Brexit supporter. Mr. Bale believes that this new competition has unnerved Mr. Johnson, but also notes that the foreign secretary once wrote a book about Winston Churchill, who was regarded as something of a maverick before he came to power. “Perhaps the lesson he has drawn is that you can blow it several times, and still, in its hour of need, the country will turn to you,” said Mr. Bale, who added that while the Churchill analogy was very far from apposite, “so many strange things are happening in British politics that it would be unwise to count him out.”

16 2018-02-28 Washington Post

Northern Ireland has become an unexpected hurdle for Brexit

February 28, 2018 This vexing issue of the Irish border was hardly mentioned before Britain’s historic June 2016 vote to By William Booth leave the European Union.

LONDON — In the days of the Troubles, as the 30-year But the balance between Republicans and Unionists, and sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland was known, the between north and south on the Irish island, remains borderlands between the North and the Republic of fragile and unsettled 20 years after the sectarian violence Ireland were called “bandit country” — a frontier of ended with the . milk smugglers, gun runners and frequent clashes between British soldiers and Irish Republican Army May is squeezed by the border issue in part because she cells. failed to achieve a majority in the last British elections and so had to enter into a soft coalition with the Today, because the sides made peace and because both Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland are members of made up of Protestants loyal to Britain and the monarch, the same European Union, the border between them is who oppose any move that would sever ties with the wide open to the point of invisibility. Manufactured United Kingdom. goods, alongside tens of thousands of people, and a lot of sheep and Guinness stout, pass freely on a daily basis, The DUP leader in Parliament, Nigel Dodds, on without customs checks or passport control, over new Wednesday described the latest E.U. proposals as highways, farm roads and country lanes. “ludicrous” and said that if enacted, the treaty would be “catastrophic” for Northern Ireland. But that border is now a major point of contention in the Brexit debate, as Britain and the E.U. sort out how to “We did not leave the European Union to oversee the disengage next year. breakup of the United Kingdom,” he told the BBC.

European negotiators on Wednesday released draft The conservative Times of London wrote, “The language for a treaty that would have Northern Ireland European Union has demanded that Britain effectively essentially remain in the E.U. customs union, which hand over sovereignty of Northern Ireland to Brussels if would allow for an open border for trade and travel it cannot find a solution to the Irish border question.” between Northern Ireland, still a part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland in the south, a Meanwhile, the Republic of Ireland’s foreign minister, member of the European bloc. Simon Coveney, praised the draft language.

In Parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May May has suggested the Irish border issue can be finessed immediately called the proposal unacceptable, signaling with a combination of clever compromise and 21st- a rocky road ahead. century technology, but she has not said how.

May said the Brussels draft would “undermine the U.K. The question of what to do about the border was common market and threaten the constitutional integrity dismissed this week as a nonissue by hard-line of the U.K. by creating a customs and regulatory border Brexiteers in May’s cabinet, foremost by Foreign down the Irish Sea, and no U.K. prime minister could Secretary Boris Johnson, who on Tuesday suggested the ever agree to it.” solution was no more complex than arranging cameras along the frontier to take pictures of license plate Presenting the proposed treaty, Brussels’s chief numbers passing by, to collect tolls and information. negotiator Michel Barnier said that Europe was open to other suggestions but that it must preserve the open He compared the Irish border to moving between two border. He signaled that Europe needed to hear clear boroughs in London, between zones where traffic tolls answers from May and that time was running out. are taken to reduce congestion and pollution in the city’s

17 2018-02-28 Washington Post center. Johnson’s comments, criticized as glib and ahistorical, angered both sides of the Irish border.

London mayor, told reporters Wednesday, “What is going on at the moment is that the issue of the Northern Irish border is being used quite a lot politically to try to keep the U.K. in the customs union, effectively the single market, so we cannot really leave the E.U. That is what is going on.”

Earlier this week, Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party and the opposition in Parliament, said he supported a softer Brexit that could include a customs union with Europe on trade and tariffs — an arrangement that could preserve an open Irish border but would block Britain from making its own bilateral deals abroad. May dismissed the idea.

The prime minister is scheduled to present the government’s vision for Brexit in a major speech on Friday.

18 2018-03 The Economist Intelligence Unit

How Brexit Will Affect UK Industry

March 2018 The second section of this report is more qualitative and focuses on how Brexit will affect companies and other (Intro/Summary to Full Report) organisations operating in our six sectors. The issues at stake mainly involve trade, regulation, employment and In June 2016 the UK electorate voted to leave the EU. skills and access to investment with much riding on how On March 29th 2017 the UK prime minister, Theresa the UK coordinates its policies with those of the EU and May, wrote to the president Donald its institutions. Our key forecasts are: Tusk, notifying him of the UK’s intention to leave the EU, in accordance with Article 50 of the Treaty on  We expect the UK economy to carry on growing in European Union. A summit of EU leaders on March 2018-22 under our core scenario of a Canada- plus- 23rd agreed the terms of the transition agreement plus deal and our hard Brexit scenario. However, if reached by the UK and EU negotiating teams on March the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal we 19th. Talks on the substantive issue of the future trading estimate that by 2022 the UK’s nominal GDP will be relationship have yet to start in earnest and a deal is 2.7% lower than in our core scenario. Given that supposed to be done by October 2018 to allow time for inflation would also rise under a no-deal Brexit, real ratification. GDP growth in 2020-22 would probably be halved. With a year to go before the UK leaves the EU and the However, our long-term outlook for the UK 21-month transition period begins—during which time economy remains positive, regardless of the terms of the UK will maintain access to the single market and the UK’s departure from the EU. will be bound by the obligations of membership-- this  After Brexit our view is that London will retain its report analyses the possible impact on six sectors of the status one of the world’s leading financial centres, UK economy. The transition agreement provides along with New York and Singapore, and that it will businesses with some certainty that they will have time also remain Europe’s leading financial hub after to adjust to the new UK- EU relationship. However, Brexit. There is also a large degree of inter- Brexit will nevertheless entail some disruption. In three dependence between the UK and EU financial sectors, we expect the impact to be direct and difficult to services sectors, just as there is for the trade in goods manage—financial services, healthcare and life sciences, between the UK and the EU. This inter-dependence and automotive. In consumer goods and retailing, matters and means that there is to some degree a telecoms and energy, the impact is likely to be more mutual interest in achieving a deal that works for diffuse but still disruptive. both sides. Even under the core scenario, however, a financial services deal will be partial and some The first part of the report discusses The Economist financial institutions will consider relocating some Intelligence Unit’s current core forecast for Brexit, personnel and parts of their business after Brexit. which involves the UK agreeing to a Canada-style free- The sector is more reliant on global than on EU trade-agreement (FTA) with some special terms for trends, and will remain a robust driver of the UK sectors that are particularly important to the UK economy. economy. This so-called Canada- plus-plus deal will  The healthcare and life sciences sector is likely to probably emerge during the transition period. We then see exports shrink under our core scenario, but the outline a “hard Brexit” or “no- deal Brexit” scenario that worst-case scenario—a shortage of much-needed involves talks breaking down during the transition medicines—will be avoided through regulatory period, and the UK leaving the EU without a trade agreements. The slower economic growth predicted agreement. Using the usual modelling techniques that under a no-deal Brexit scenario would dent tax underpin our industry forecasts, we compare how the revenue and consumer spending. Unless policies are economic growth projections for these two scenarios adopted to mitigate the effect, this would result in would affect key indicators for our six sectors, unless total health spending per head being £90 (US$125) policies are adopted to mitigate those effects. lower in 2022 than it would be under a softer Brexit. However, the UK government could potentially use

19 2018-03 The Economist Intelligence Unit

some of the fiscal savings from ending contributions 13.4% lower in nominal terms in 2022 compared to the EU budget to mitigate the impact on these with our core scenario. sectors.  In terms of energy policy, the UK will continue to  The automotive sector faces a huge challenge: forge ahead on emissions reductions and without a UK-EU FTA, large-scale production in the decarbonisation. However, the task will become UK would become difficult. UK vehicle-makers will more difficult and energy costs may will rise if it try to expand in other export markets, but will also exits Europe’s internal energy market. Energy need to stimulate domestic demand. Under a no-deal consumption would be 2.9% lower by 2022 if the Brexit, we forecast that vehicle sales would be 13.1% UK leaves the EU without a deal and the economy lower by 2022 than they would be under our core slows as expected. scenario. Cumulatively, the industry would sell  The UK’s exit from the “digital single market” will around 840,000 fewer vehicles between 2019 and primarily affect telecoms operators with significant 2022 than under our core scenario. business on the continent. However, there may also  The loss of EU workers and disputes over regulation be an effect on investment in innovation, as well as will affect most consumer goods manufacturers, as on the prices that UK consumers pay when using well as the food sector. Unless agreements are their mobile phones abroad. Investment in mobile reached over mutual recognition, the effect is likely technology could be 3.5% lower by 2022 under a no- to push down exports and push up the prices of deal scenario. © The Economist Intelligence imports still further. The biggest impact of a no-deal Unit Limited 2018 Brexit would be on retail spending, which could be

20 2018-03-27 New York Times

Cambridge Analytica Whistle-Blower Contends Data-Mining Swung Brexit Votes

March 27, 2018 subsidiary company, Aggregate IQ, which provided them with SCL’s store of data. By ELLEN BARRY “I think it is completely reasonable to say that there LONDON — The whistle-blower could have been a different outcome of the referendum held a roomful of British lawmakers rapt for three and a had there not been, in my view, cheating,” he said. half hours on Tuesday, like a pink-haired, nose-ringed oracle sent from the future to explain data. He also suggested that Russian intelligence agencies could have easily scooped up the company’s vast library In testimony to the House of Commons’ select of data on American voters in advance of the 2016 committee on culture, Mr. Wylie, a 28-year-old elections in the United States, because Aleksandr Kogan, Canadian, described the inner workings of SCL, a the scientist who collected it, made regular return trips to political consultancy that gave its clients access to a vast Russia. collection of personal information harvested from Facebook. “Put a key logger in Kogan’s computer in Russia and you’ve got everything,” Mr. Wylie said. He added: “It In one of the longest sessions in recent memory, Mr. would make it incredibly easy for them to get access to Wylie made a number of jaw-dropping assertions, most this data. For me, that’s concerning and I think it should significantly that the company’s exploitation of personal be looked into.” data had swung the results of Britain’s 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union. He also suggested that Mr. Wylie’s appearance has coincided with a surge of his predecessor at Cambridge Analytica was murdered. collective dismay over data-mining, and many found themselves riveted by his testimony on Tuesday. But mostly, Mr. Wylie tried to explain data-mining. He Georgia Rakusen, 33, a user researcher at a technology looked like a cerebral skate-rat, which might in other firm in London, urged her Twitter followers to tune into circumstances have undermined his credibility, but in the hearing, which she called “absolutely gripping stuff.” this case it seemed to help. He was polite. He resembled, as one journalist put it, “a patient grandson trying to set His testimony, she said, “was something that, as a lay up a Skype call with his gran.” person, you could watch and start to grasp the enormity of how your data is used.” His message was clear: If you aren’t already worried about how your personal data is being used, now would “I think maybe people are just beginning to open up, to be a good time to start. “The way I like to think of it, realize that maybe it’s not just about ads, maybe it’s not data is the electricity of our new economy, and just what bands I like,” she said. Ms. Rakusen, who electricity can be quite dangerous,” he said. “We enjoy described her own work as “a space where we are the benefits of electricity, despite the fact that it can supposed to make people click more,” said she hoped literally kill you.” that employees of large technology companies would come forward more, looking at whistle-blowers like Mr. Cambridge Analytica released a statement describing Mr. Wylie and Edward J. Snowden. Wylie as “a part-time contractor who left in July 2014 and has no direct knowledge of our work or practices “I didn’t watch the whole three and a half hours,” she since then.” It said Cambridge Analytica, a subsidiary of said. “But I basically didn’t get any other work done the SCL political consultancy, did not use its cache of during that time.” data in Donald J. Trump’s 2016 campaign, and had no Mr. Wylie, who has described himself a “gay Canadian involvement in the European Union referendum that vegan,” dropped out of high school but discovered a ended with a victory for those who support withdrawal, genius for coding and, still in his teens, began working or Brexit, from the bloc. for political campaigns. He came close to losing his Mr. Wylie’s testimony bluntly contradicted that of his composure at only one moment on Tuesday, when he former boss, Alexander Nix, who has recently appeared was asked what prompted him to turn against the before the same committee twice. Mr. Wylie said a technology he had helped create. He said his views had cluster of pro-Brexit organizations employed a Canadian changed when Mr. Trump was elected. 21 2018-03-27 New York Times

“It was no longer this niche, shady firm,” he said. “It was a firm that was making a massive impact on the world. It’s a process of coming to terms with what you have created, and the impact that has had.” “I am incredibly remorseful for my role in setting it up,” he added, his voice wavering. “I’m the first person to say that I should have known better. But what’s done is done.” He was caustic on the subject of his former boss, Mr. Nix, who he said enjoyed the colonial challenge of manipulating the affairs of less developed countries. He recalled that once, they were late to a meeting because Mr. Nix had to collect a chandelier he had bought for $283,000. “You have to remember that a lot of these people are very wealthy already,” he said. “The thing that I learned is for certain wealthy people, they need something to keep them occupied. They need projects. And for certain wealthy people, going into the developing world and running a country is something that appeals to them.” At times, he seemed slightly pitying of British officials who are investigating data-mining, saying they did not have enough resources and lacked a “robust technical background.” “I have had to explain and re-explain and re-explain and re-explain, you know, how relational databases work, what is an eigenvector, what is dimensionality reduction,” he said. “They have been working really, really hard. But as a point of observation, one of the weak points that I’ve seen — again, this is an empathetic criticism — is the lack of technical people,” he said, apparently searching for a polite way to say it. “They have had to ask me a lot of questions that a database engineer would not ask.”

22 2018-03-31 Washington Post

Did Brexit campaigners cheat? And if they did, what does that mean?

March 31, 2018 and only advised Sanni as a friend, not as a co- By William Booth and Karla Adam campaigner. May defended her aide in Parliament, stressing that his LONDON — If he knocked on your door, Shahmir statement was “personal,” though the email sent to Sanni might not be what you would expect of a reporters by May’s press office included a subject line campaigner for Brexit, Britain’s historic — now with the word “official” in capital letters. wrenching, all-consuming — decision to leave the European Union. The accusation of questionable campaign coordination and spending has been dismissed as a “lover’s quarrel” Sanni is a young, hip, gay Muslim, a Pakistani Briton and a total nothingburger. It has also been hyped as a who studied economics at his university, loves fashion bombshell that calls into question not only the decision and is an American-style libertarian, a committed to leave the European Union, but also Britain’s fair play “Euroskeptic.” He does not want less immigration to and democratic values. Britain; he wants more. But he wants London, not Brussels, to be in control. He describes himself as In the closing days of the 2016 Brexit campaign, Sanni “sassy.” and his friend zoomed from being unpaid part-time volunteers for the main “Vote Leave” Once an anonymous college-age volunteer, Sanni is now organization, fronted by Tories Johnson and Michael front-page news in Britain as a whistleblower who Gove, to becoming leaders of their own allied group, alleges that pro-Brexit campaigners in 2016 “cheated” called “BeLeave.” — specifically, that a prominent group run by top Conservative Party figures, including now-Foreign Sanni and Grimes were both 22, and this was their first Secretary Boris Johnson, broke election law by political campaign. They did outreach but had limited coordinating campaigns among allied organizations to numbers of online followers and email addresses of circumvent spending caps. supporters. The political firm at the center of the controversy is “We were enthusiastic, committed, and we thought we Aggregate IQ, a tiny Canadian firm closely connected to were brilliant,” Sanni said. “But I think we were used.” Cambridge Analytica, which ran President Trump’s Although British law bans coordination between winning digital campaign and is at the heart of a campaigns, Sanni said he and Grimes were based in the Facebook data-sharing scandal that has cost the platform Vote Leave headquarters; were advised by Vote Leave giant $80 billion in market value. staffers, including May’s now-senior adviser; and relied The week-long controversy over who did what and how on Vote Leave’s attorney, who helped them incorporate in the 2016 Brexit vote quickly ensnared Prime Minister the BeLeave group. Theresa May and her inner circle. Sanni said that after he was instructed to set up a bank One of May’s senior aides at 10 Downing Street, account, BeLeave learned it would be getting a donation Stephen Parkinson, was a top Brexit campaigner. He is of $878,000 via the Vote Leave organization, which was also Sanni’s former boyfriend — and is accused of running up against campaign spending limits. However, publicly outing Sanni as gay. the money never went into the BeLeave account, Sanni said. Instead, he said, it went directly to Aggregate IQ to Sanni branded it revenge, an attempt to silence him. blast voters in the last week of the campaign with He said his outing could endanger family members in targeted messages on social media. Pakistan, where Sanni said homosexuality remains Aggregate IQ was doing similar work for the Vote taboo, especially in conservative circles. He had to rush Leave campaign, according to campaign finance reports to come out to his mother, who lives in London. “The first published by BuzzFeed in the aftermath of the worst day of my life,” he told The Washington Post. referendum. Parkinson said the revelation was exculpatory and Christopher Wylie, a former research director for necessary. In his statement, he said he did nothing wrong Cambridge Analytica who has become a whistleblower, testified before the British Parliament’s media 23 2018-03-31 Washington Post committee that he helped set up Aggregate IQ and that it He said, “It’s not about who won or lost the referendum; mixed funding and work for Vote Leave and BeLeave in it’s about the integrity and security of our democracy violation of election laws. and our electoral system.” “If we allow cheating in our democratic process . . . what Bradshaw added that it was “disgraceful” that May’s about next time? What about the time after that? This is political secretary had outed Sanni as gay. “I’m amazed a breach of the law,” Wylie told Parliament. that that man is still in his job. That’s totally unacceptable.” In statements, Aggregate IQ said it did nothing wrong and had followed the law. Concluding the debate, government minister Chloe Smith said she would not comment on allegations that Vote Leave’s campaign director, Dominic Cummings, are under investigation. She added that the Electoral declined an interview request, but on his blog, he wrote Commission, the official watchdog, had concluded that that the whistleblowers had “promised Watergate and the Brexit vote was delivered without any major issues delivered a dodgy Zoo-lander.” and that the government would implement the results. He wrote, “Vote Leave’s donations were legal, the Political analysts said the accusations of financial Electoral Commission gave us written permission, the cheating will be a boost to the pro-Europeans keen to whistleblowers are provably lying, we leave in a year cast doubt on the legitimacy of the Brexit referendum, in and this lame gossip won’t even be a historical which Britons voted 52 percent to 48 percent in favor of footnote.” leaving the European Union. Johnson, the foreign secretary, called accusations of “It helps keep a second referendum on the agenda, but illegal coordination “utterly ludicrous.” it’s not going to be the thing that actually triggers that “Vote Leave won fair and square — and legally,” referendum,” said Tim Bale, a politics professor at Johnson tweeted. Queen Mary University of London. “The only thing In debate in Parliament, lawmakers were divided over that’s actually going to trigger that referendum is MPs in alleged breaches of electoral law. Parliament feeling that the deal is a disaster and that public opinion is beginning to shift.” Labour lawmaker Ben Bradshaw said that when he began raising concerns about the Brexit vote, he was He said claims that the Brexit vote may have been won considered a “crank.” But now, he said, almost all of his through fraud were probably overstating the case. allegations have “proven to be correct.” “The feeling still is that Leave would have won even without any tampering going on,” he said.

24 FT 25 June 2018 – p 1

Opinion Brexit Boris Johnson’s Brexit explosion ruins Tory business credentials The foreign secretary’s outburst reveals commerce has lost out to nationalism by Robert Shrimsley 25 June 2018 If this were only Mr Johnson, one might disregard it as the latest effusion from an increasingly marginalised One might disregard Boris Johnson's dismissal of figure. But he was articulating a broader strand of business as the latest effusion from a marginalised figure. opinion. Nigel Farage’s response to Airbus was that But he was articulating a broader strand of opinion “manufacturing is 10 per cent of the UK economy”. So, “Fuck business.” Never was the Brexit manifesto more manufacturing can get lost as well. The message that you succinctly captured than in Boris Johnson’s impromptu did not see on the side of the Leave campaign bus is that aside. As slogans go, it has everything. It surfs the economic pain is a price worth paying. For all the populist wave of anger towards elites. It is easy to pretence of new business opportunities, this was always understand. Hell, it’s even shorter than “take back their view. control”. Mr Farage, of course, is not a Conservative. So let us The UK’s foreign secretary apparently outlined his new consider Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary and born- business strategy at a private reception, when challenged again Brexiter (a condition not entirely unrelated to about the clamour from Airbus and BMW over the threat considering himself a leadership contender). Challenged to jobs and investment. Mr Johnson’s aides say the about Airbus’s comments, Mr Hunt said it was remark was aimed at business lobbyists. It makes little “completely inappropriate” for business to be voicing difference. (He has now fled to Kabul to avoid having to fears for the future of its workforce because it could resign rather than vote with the government for a new undermine the prospects for a good deal. You have to runway at Heathrow. The foreign secretary had said he wonder at some of this. Does Mr Hunt imagine that the would lie down in front of the bulldozers. It turns out he EU was unaware of the issue? Does he envision a preferred to lie low.) breathless Eurocrat reading about Airbus and thinking: “Fuck business.” It may have been a casual aside but it “Oh wow. This could be really useful in the was also a revealingly contemptuous one, not least in its negotiations.” indifference to the fate of Airbus’s UK staff. This is the There has always been a tension in strategic nihilism of a spoiled child lashing out. After between nationalism and commerce. Wiser Tories kept two years of failing to offer up even a scintilla of a plan, the two strands in harmony, recognising that a wealthy relying on magical thinking and the belief that if Britain nation is more likely to be a strong (and indeed, stable) just held its nerve, Europe would fold, this is all he had one. But Brexit has brought the tension back to the fore. left — a petulant explosion. Mr Johnson will not let a grubby thing like business It is only a few weeks since Mr Johnson was caught inconvenience higher ideals. This ambivalence is why, saying much the same thing about Ireland as its for example, Brexiters are happy to forgo the planned complexities threatened the simplicity of his Brexit. So cut in corporation tax to fund their Brexit pledge on f*** business, f*** Northern Ireland — there is no health. workforce too large to sacrifice, no damage too great to Ranged against Mr Johnson’s new romantics are the less endure as long as someone else does the enduring. dashing realists such as Philip Hammond at the Treasury, Mr Johnson’s oratorical outrages have become so Greg Clark, business secretary, and Theresa May’s numerous that we have learnt to discount them. But he is deputy, . The prime minister, herself no still one of the leading lights of the Conservative party, friend of unfettered capitalism, also sees economic chaos the party of business, of free trade, of low taxation and as a sub-optimal outcome. As one minister put it: getting the dead hand of the state out of the way of the “Whenever policy decisions come to the fore, facts nation’s wealth creators. For a Tory to be declaring trump ideology.” “fuck business” should be as unlikely as Labour leader For now the realists are in control, but this fissure goes Jeremy Corbyn yelling something similar about the beyond Brexit. One need only listen to leavers raging at workers. the chancellor or the Bank of England to know a Tory Rubicon has been crossed. 25 FT 25 June 2018 – p 2 This then is the state of British politics. A Labour party which has fallen to anti-capitalists and a Conservative party, infected by a strain of economic denialism and with a core — though not yet a majority — who place little store in business-friendly policies. For the first time in 40 years business cannot be sure that either major party cares about its interests. The nation must hope that global businesses making investment decisions and hearing of Mr Johnson’s remark do not plump for the obvious reply. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2018. All rights reserved.

26 2018-07-07 BBC - 1

At-a-glance: The new UK Brexit plan agreed at Chequers

The borders between the UK and EU will be treated as a "combined customs territory". The UK would apply domestic tariffs and trade policies for goods intended for the UK, but charge EU tariffs and their equivalents for goods which will end up heading into the EU. A post-Brexit UK would be able to "control its own tariffs for trade with the rest of the world" without causing border disruption. This avoids a hard Irish border, and removes the need for "backstop" arrangements to be put in place before the The cabinet has reached an agreement on the UK's future UK's withdrawal from the EU, the government says. relationship with the EU after Brexit. Here are the key Free movement of people points from the three page deal published by the government. The agreement says it will end free movement of people "giving the UK back control over how many people 'Common rulebook' enter the country". The UK will "maintain a common rulebook for all A "mobility framework" will be set up to allow UK and goods" with the EU, including agricultural products, EU citizens to travel to each other's territories, and apply after Brexit. for study and work. A treaty will be signed committing the UK to "continued Overall aims harmonisation" with EU rules - avoiding friction at the UK-EU border, including Northern Ireland. These proposals represent "a precise and responsible approach to the final stage of the negotiations", the Parliament will oversee the UK's trade policy and have government says. the ability to "choose" to diverge from the EU rules, "recognising that this would have consequences". According to the government the plan: "Co-operative arrangements" will be established • Gives the UK an independent trade policy, with the between EU and UK competition regulators. ability to set its own non-EU tariffs and to reach separate trade deals "Different arrangements" will be organised for services "where it is in our interests to have regulatory • Ends the role of the ECJ in UK affairs flexibility". • Ends annual payments to the EU budget with Joint jurisdiction "appropriate contributions for joint action in specific areas" A "joint institutional framework" will be established to interpret UK-EU agreements. The early reaction from Brexiteers has been that they need to see the full 100-plus page plan to see whether or This would be done in the UK by UK courts, and in the not they agree with the government's claims. EU by EU courts Full details will be released in a white paper next week. But, decisions by UK courts would involve "due regard paid to EU case law in areas where the UK continued to One last reminder apply a common rulebook". This is not a final Brexit deal. This is an agreement on Cases will still be referred to the European Court of the UK's preferred way forward as negotiations with the Justice (ECJ) as the interpreter of EU rules, but "cannot European Union about the future relationship reach a resolve disputes between the two". crucial stage. 'Facilitated' customs arrangement .

27 2018-07-16 BBC - 1

Brexit: How would a second EU referendum be held?

By Tom Edgington - BBC Reality Check But according to David Jeffery, a politics lecturer at Liverpool University, this might not save a lot of time A former Conservative cabinet minister has called for a because issues would still need to be debated and second Brexit referendum. Writing in the Times, Justine scrutinised by MPs and Lords. Greening, who used to be education secretary, argued that another vote would be "the only way to end Aside from the time to pass the legislation, there's also deadlock". the length of the campaign to consider. But how, in practice, could a second vote happen? Last time around there was a four-month period between the then Prime Minister David Cameron announcing the Parliamentary approval referendum in February 2016, and the vote taking place The government has ruled out a new Brexit referendum on 23 June. and the Labour party says it's unlikely - although its Furthermore, the Electoral Commission has Shadow Brexit Secretary, Sir Keir Starmer, says it is recommended that in future there should be at least a sensible to keep "all our options on the table" - in the six-month gap between legislation being passed and a event of Parliament voting down a Brexit deal or in the referendum being held. case of a "no deal" scenario. That's to allow enough time to register campaigns, put Downing Street said, in response to Ms Greening, that a counting officers in place and give people information referendum will not happen "in any circumstances". on how to vote. So unless there is a dramatic change in party policy, it's So combining the time to pass the legislation and highly unlikely a referendum would be called in the first allowing for a campaign, it might not be possible to hold place. a second referendum before the UK is scheduled to leave That's because a referendum requires an Act of the EU in March 2019 (i.e. when the Article 50 process Parliament, which needs to be voted through by the is due to expire). majority of MPs. And holding a referendum after the Article 50 process And while there are vocal supporters on all sides, could cause a number of practical problems. currently there are not enough MPs who support the idea For one, what if the country voted to remain in the EU, of a second referendum. but had already left by the time the vote was held? Timing This could be avoided if the EU agreed to extend the Even if MPs and peers agreed in principle to hold a Article 50 deadline - but this would need to be second referendum, the legislative process can be drawn unanimously agreed by all EU member states. out. The question Parliament would need to pass detailed rules for the There's also the referendum question itself and the conduct of the poll and the regulation of campaigners. options on the ballot paper to consider. It took seven months before Parliament signed off the These need to be presented "clearly, simply and previous referendum legislation in 2015. Further time neutrally", according to the Electoral Commission. was also needed to pass secondary legislation on areas such as voting registration. Justine Greening argues for three options: accept a negotiated Brexit deal, stay in the EU, or leave with no In theory, Parliament could copy over some of the deal. legislation from the 2015 Act in order to try to speed the process up. David Jeffery says having more than a yes/no option could complicate the process: 28 2018-07-16 BBC - 2

"With three options you could have a situation where just 34% decide the winning option. In the end it would be up to the Electoral Commission to "And that leads to questions about the type of voting assess that question. system you want - like choosing the options by preference order," he says. . "But then you need to ask 'do the public understand the system and how might it work in such a short period of time?'"

29 2018-07-19 BBC - 1

At-a-glance: The UK's four Brexit options With the UK on course to leave the European Union in March next year, the country faces four possible scenarios.

Leave with a deal Stay in the EU The UK and the EU both insist they want as amicable a The UK has formally triggered the mechanism to leave divorce as possible, with a legal agreement setting out the EU at 23:00 GMT on 29 March, 2019. the kind of relationship they will have when the UK is To reverse that at this late stage would mean a huge loss no longer a member of the club. of political face, and probably require a new prime Prime Minister Theresa May wants to keep close ties minister, with the backing of voters in a general election. with the EU in certain areas, such as trade in agricultural European Council President Donald Tusk has said he products and allowing skilled migrants access to jobs in believes Brexit can be halted - but there is some debate the UK. about whether the Article 50 process, the two-year legal She says her plan will allow Britain to take back control mechanism taking the UK out of the EU, is reversible. of its laws, money and borders, just like people voted for (You can read a full BBC Reality Check on the debate in the 2016 EU referendum, while also allowing as here.) "frictionless" trade as possible and avoiding a physical If the UK did leave and wanted to immediately rejoin, it border for Northern Ireland. would need all the other EU member states to agree. But it has been attacked as an unworkable compromise A less formal version of staying in the EU would be if by people from both the Remain and Leave ends of the the UK strikes a deal that keeps it in the EU's trade debate. arrangements - the customs union and the single market The EU may also decide to reject it, but the two sides are - and agrees to free movement of people and the still hoping to strike some kind of deal by the autumn jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. This would and, despite criticism and ministerial resignations, Mrs amount to staying in the EU, Brexiteers argue. May believes this is the best option. Hold another referendum Leave without a deal The UK government has ruled this out but there have A clean break with the EU. The UK would fall back on been a number of people calling for a fresh vote - its membership of the World Trade Organization including Justine Greening. (WTO), the global body governing international trade. With Parliament apparently split over what kind of UK exports to the EU would be subject to the same Brexit it wants, a referendum on the final deal agreed by customs checks and taxes the EU currently imposes on Theresa May in Brussels might yet end up being the only countries like the United States. way to break the deadlock. Those arguing for this option - the so-called "hard Those campaigning for another referendum say voters Brexiteers" - say it would create a truly independent should get the final say, including the option of staying nation able to strike its own beneficial trade deals around in. Labour's leadership say a general election should be the world. held rather than another referendum. But opponents say it would be catastrophic for British business and have warned about chaos at the borders, . higher food prices and shortages in the shops.

30 2018-08-23 BBC - 1

UK's 'no-deal' Brexit plans warn of credit card fees

BBC News  The cost of card payments between the UK and EU 23 Aug 2018 will "likely increase" and won't be covered by a ban Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has set out what he on surcharges called "practical and proportionate" advice in case the  Businesses trading with the EU should start planning UK leaves the EU without a deal. for new customs checks, and might have to pay for new software or logistical help The guidance includes instructions for businesses who  Britons living elsewhere in Europe could lose access could face extra paperwork at borders and contingency to UK banking and pension services without EU plans to avoid medicine shortages. action Britons visiting the EU could also face extra credit card  UK organic food producers could face new hurdles charges. to exporting to the EU  Pharmaceutical companies have been told to Ministers say a deal is the most likely outcome but that stockpile an extra six weeks' worth of medicine to "short-term disruption" is possible without one. ensure a "seamless" supply BBC political correspondent Chris Mason described the  The UK would continue to accept new medicines publication as a "vast swirling porridge of detail - much that have been tested in the EU of it at a technical level, advising individual industries  Low-value parcels from the EU would no longer be about the manner in which they are regulated in the eligible for VAT relief event of a no-deal Brexit".  New picture warnings will be needed for cigarette Labour said a no-deal outcome would be "catastrophic" packets as the EU owns the copyright to the current and a "complete failure by the government to negotiate ones for Britain". Mr Raab said reaching a deal with the EU was the Just after the documents were released, Chancellor "overriding priority" and "by far the most likely Philip Hammond reiterated a warning from his outcome" but that "we must be ready to consider the department of a 7.7% hit to GDP over the next 15 years alternative". under a no-deal Brexit scenario, in a letter to the He also dismissed what he said were "wilder claims" Treasury Committee. about the impact of not reaching a deal, including that it The timing of that release angered pro-Brexit MP Jacob could spark a "sandwich famine" in the UK. Rees-Mogg, who said the Treasury was trying to stop "Let me assure you that, contrary to one of the wilder Brexit, and that it consistently painted a bleak picture claims, you will still be able to enjoy a BLT after Brexit, "because they are frightened of taking responsibility for and there are no plans to deploy the Army to maintain managing the economy without the crutch of the EU". food supplies," he said. What's in the no-deal Brexit plans? . In the 24 documents, which cover industries including medicine, finance and farming, it says:

31 2018-09-04 Guardian - 1

Brexit is a menace to society in Northern Ireland. Here’s why

Once Britain leaves the EU, the underpinning of human rights law vanishes. And that breaks the Good Friday agreement

Opinion The Good Friday agreement (GFA) made a specific Roy Greenslade reference to Britain and Ireland being “partners in the 4 Sep 2018 European Union.” And, crucially, the agreement committed the UK government to enshrine the European It is hardly surprising that the people of Britain, by Convention of Human Rights in law, and therefore which I mean the people of England, Scotland and enabled Northern Ireland’s residents to benefit from the Wales, are baffled by the key part in the Brexit drama European court of human rights. being played out in Northern Ireland. After all, they have Although the British population may not realise it, this been treated to statements of breathtaking ignorance by aspect of human rights protection was of immense Westminster politicians in recent months. importance in the northern Irish context because it was, Consider this sample about the Irish border by leading and is, the cornerstone of the peace process. The GFA Tory Brexiteers. Jacob Rees-Mogg: “It’s not a border dismantled a political arrangement built on that everyone has to go through every day.” Boris discrimination and replaced it with one of enforced Johnson: “It’s so small, and there are so few firms that power-sharing. actually use that border regularly.” David Davis: the That was some achievement. And now, according to border problem can be solved by “a whole load of new Michael Farrell, the man who led the civil rights technology”. campaign in Northern Ireland in 1968, it is imperilled by In fact, because the border has existed in name only for Brexit. In an Irish Times article last week, he pointed out the past 20 years, it is crossed and recrossed by many that once Britain leaves the EU, the underpinning of thousands of cars and lorries on a daily basis. There are human rights legislation vanishes. 208 crossing points, and technological monitoring The Conservative government has pledged to repeal the appears unfeasible even in the highly unlikely event that Human Rights Act, which incorporated the ECHR into people opposed to the border don’t put the devices out of UK law. Instead it wants to introduce a bill of rights, action. which will relieve British judges of the requirement to Cross-border cooperation has become a fact of life and follow decisions by the European Court of Human touches every sector, both public and private, including Rights. It amounts to a breach of the GFA, but this is not agriculture, health and higher education. People travel a technical, legal issue in Northern Ireland, where rights across the border to work. Regional development bodies are fundamental to the smooth workings of its society. aimed at improving the infrastructure on either side have Fears of a further encroachment to human rights centre been set up. Small businesses trade without a fuss across on the fact that one of Northern Ireland’s major parties, a frontier that to most people, especially the younger the DUP, which opposed the GFA and opposed EU generation, is a meaningless entity. membership, is also opposed to extensions in equality There is growing consternation about the likely effects legislation. It also happens to be the party that keeps of leaving the EU, as highlighted in hundreds of yellow Theresa May’s government in power. placards placed at border crossings by an organisation That reality has prompted the other major party, Sinn called Border Communities Against Brexit. There has Féin, to call on Ireland’s constituency commission to been humour, too, with a three-part BBC TV series, Soft maintain post-Brexit representation for Northern Border Patrol, lampooning the notion that it would be Ireland’s residents in the European parliament by possible to police a re-established border. allocating two new MEPs’ seats. But genuine concern about the border and the likely Sinn Féin’s current MEP in the north, Martina Anderson, threat to the economies on either side of it is not the only argues that it would satisfy a commitment made in a fear haunting the 1.8 million people who live in the six joint EU-UK report that once Britain leaves the EU there counties that were carved from the island of Ireland in should not be a diminution of the rights for the north’s 1921. Just as compelling, and arguably more so, has citizens. been the realisation that Brexit is likely to destroy the delicate political framework erected in 1998. 32 2018-09-04 Guardian - 2 She says: “An exit from the EU stands to undo the progress of recent decades. Rather than being able to focus our energy on the forward march for more rights, we instead face losing what has already been won.” There has been tentative backing for Sinn Féin’s call by Ireland’s other main parties. Fianna Fáil’s leader, Micheál Martin, said earlier this year that it was “conceivable” that people north of the border would be able to cast their votes in future EU elections, while the Fine Gael MEP Seán Kelly has said the idea is “worth exploring”. The DUP, however, is having none of it. Its MEP, Diane Dodds, believes that allowing people north of the border to vote in European elections after Brexit would “redefine the benefits of Irish citizenship”. She may well be right about that, of course. But Brexit redefines British citizenship too, does it not? She might do well to remember that in the 2016 EU referendum 56% of Northern Ireland’s voters favoured staying in the EU. Is it democratic to threaten that majority’s human rights?

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Brexit: How the timetable to 31 October could unfold By Chris Morris Reality Check correspondent, BBC News 30 May 2019 "Please don't waste this time," was the appeal from European Council President Donald Tusk, after European Union (EU) leaders agreed to delay the UK's departure from the EU until the end of October. But of the seven months between 29 March, the original Brexit date, and 31 October, the end of the current extension period, two months have already elapsed. And nothing has really changed. New leader The UK Parliament is as deadlocked as ever, and most of the next two months will be taken up by the Conservative leadership contest. The aim is to have a new leader, and therefore a new prime minister, in place before the start of Parliament's summer recess - when the House of Commons and the House of Lords effectively shut down. That is expected to begin towards the end of July. EU leaders are due to review progress on Brexit at a regular summit on 20 to 21 June. But by that time they will not even know who is going to be in charge after Theresa May leaves No 10. Holidays and party conferences August of course is holiday time, particularly in the EU, when very little business gets done in Brussels, and the chances of the UK having meaningful talks about Brexit with other governments or the EU institutions are limited. So that already takes us to the beginning of September, only two months before the Brexit extension comes to an end. And in the second half of September, the UK Parliament is once again in recess, as political parties hold their annual conferences. As for the EU, it has its own problems to solve. Brexit is not its main focus. Parliament meets for the first time on 2 July, and much of EU business over the next few months will be dominated by the search for compromise over a series of key appointments: new presidents for the European Commission, the European Council and the European Central Bank. In other words, there is not much time for any kind of talks with the EU, and not much time for further parliamentary business related to Brexit, before the extension runs out. That means the run-up to 31 October could be just as frenetic as the run-up to 29 March was, with huge uncertainty about the outcome dominating politics and the business world.

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34 'Letter and spirit' of agreement The House of Commons will probably be in session for about 50 days between now and the end of October. Only about half of those days will be under the leadership of a new prime minister. That is not much time to pass all the legislation that would be needed to deliver Brexit - deal or no deal. Several would-be Tory leaders say they intend to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement with the EU, even though other EU countries have repeatedly said the negotiations are over. In fact, the terms of the current Brexit extension - agreed by the government - specifically exclude reopening the withdrawal agreement, and say the UK should not do anything incompatible with the "letter and spirit" of that agreement. The decision to extend - taken by the European Council "in agreement with the United Kingdom" - is a legal text. But it is not a law, and a subsequent meeting of the European Council could take a different political decision on renegotiation. But there is no sign of that being about to happen. Any change currently on offer would be to the non-binding political declaration on future relations, rather than to the withdrawal agreement itself. No deal A number of leadership candidates also say they are ready to leave the EU with no deal if necessary. But a prime minister determined to do that would face concerted opposition in the House of Commons, including potentially a no-confidence motion supported by members of their own party. Legislation is also needed to prepare for no deal - bills covering trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and financial services are all currently pending. But any legislation put before the Commons could in theory be amended by MPs to try to prevent a no-deal Brexit taking place. The Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, has said any suggestion that Parliament would not play its part on Brexit was "simply unimaginable". "The idea the House won't have its say is for the birds," he said. Nevertheless, no deal remains the default option in law on 31 October unless something else can be agreed. The chances of any agreement passing this Parliament in the limited time available already appear remote. So the only likely alternative to no deal would be a further extension to the whole Brexit process.

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Brexit: UK 'will have to face consequences' in event of no deal 18 July 2019 , which aims to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, "isn't going to happen". Michel Barnier says Theresa May and her ministers never threatened to leave without a deal during Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, a key figure in negotiations Boris Johnson's leadership campaign, accused Mr Barnier of trying to "threaten" the UK. The UK will have to "face the consequences" if it opts to leave without a deal, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator has He said Mr Barnier's remarks were an indictment of said. Britain's negotiating strategy and showed "how useless" Mrs May's approach had been. Michel Barnier told BBC Panorama the thrice-rejected agreement negotiated by Theresa May was the "only Leadership frontrunner Mr Johnson was asked for an way to leave the EU in an orderly manner". interview by Panorama, but he declined. He also insisted Mrs May and her ministers "never" told Elsewhere in the programme, Mrs May's de facto deputy him during Brexit talks she might opt for no deal. David Lidington revealed that a senior EU official made a secret offer to the UK to put Brexit on hold for five Publicly, Mrs May has always insisted no deal is better years and negotiate a "new deal for Europe". than a bad deal. Mr Lidington said the offer was passed on in 2018 by Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility has Martin Selmayr, a senior aide to EU Commission said the UK will fall into recession next year if there is a President Jean-Claude Juncker. no-deal Brexit. "Martin sort of said, 'Look, why don't we have a deal The fiscal watchdog said economic growth would fall by whereby we just put all this on ice for five years?' 2% by the end of 2020 if it left the bloc without an agreement. "Let's see how things go, let's get the UK involved with France and Germany, let's see how the dust settles and 'Not impressed by threat' let's talk about whether we can come to a new deal for In his first UK broadcast interview - conducted in May Europe.'" before the start of the Conservative leadership contest - In his own interview for the programme - also recorded Mr Barnier was asked what would happen if the UK in May - Mr Selmayr said he was "very certain" the UK "just tore up the membership card" for the EU. was not ready to leave without a deal before the original "The UK will have to face the consequences," he replied. Brexit deadline in March this year. Asked whether the UK had ever genuinely threatened to "We have seen what has been prepared on our side of the leave in such a way with no deal, Mr Barnier said: "I border for a hard Brexit. We don't see the same level of think that the UK side, which is well informed and preparation on the other side of the border," he added. competent and knows the way we work on the EU side, Media captionTimmermans: "It's like Lance Corporal knew from the very beginning that we've never been Jones: 'Don't panic, don't panic'... running around like impressed by such a threat. idiots" "It's not useful to use it." In another interview for the programme, the EU Conservative Party leadership contender Jeremy Hunt Commission's First Vice-President, Frans Timmermans, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the fact the said UK ministers were "running around like idiots" EU "never believed that no deal was a credible threat" when they arrived to negotiate Brexit in 2017. was "one of our mistakes in the last two years". Mr Timmermans said while he expected a "Harry Potter- He said while there will be economic consequences to like book of tricks" from ministers, instead they were no deal, "we are much better prepared for no deal than like a character from from Dad's Army. we were before". In an interview in March 2019 with the BBC's Nick He said the issue of the Northern Ireland border could be Robinson, Mr Timmermans said he found it "shocking" solved with "existing technology" and the controversial how unprepared the UK team was when it began negotiations. 1

36 "We thought they are so brilliant," he said. "That in Mr Timmermans - interviewed two months before Mrs some vault somewhere in Westminster there will be a May announced her resignation - also criticised Boris Harry Potter-like book with all the tricks and all the Johnson's approach to from when things in it to do." they began. But after seeing the then-Brexit Secretary David Davis - "Perhaps I am being a bit harsh, but it is about time we who resigned over his disagreements with the deal - became a bit harsh. I am not sure he was being genuine," speaking in public, his mind changed. he said. "I saw him not coming, not negotiating, grandstanding "I have always had the impression he is playing games." elsewhere [and] I thought, 'Oh my God, they haven't got Negotiations between the UK and EU began in 2017 a plan, they haven't got a plan.' after Prime Minister Theresa May triggered the Article "That was really shocking, frankly, because the damage 50 process to leave the bloc. if you don't have a plan... At the end of 2018, a withdrawal agreement was settled "Time's running out and you don't have a plan. It's like between the two sides and EU officials said the matter Lance Corporal Jones, you know, 'Don't panic, don't was closed. panic!' Running around like idiots." But MPs voted against the plan three times, which led to 'Playing games' a number of delays to the exit date - now set for 31 October.

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37 Bond villain - would be sitting with her white cat on her lap with this big plan behind her. I'd love to say that that room existed. I never found it."

10 things that stopped Brexit happening He wasn't the only one. In Brussels, top EU officials By Nick Robinson BBC Panorama were waiting to see what the UK would propose.

18 July 2019 "We thought they are so brilliant there will be, in some vault somewhere in Westminster, a Harry Potter type Prime Minister Theresa May has been forced to quit. book with all the tricks and all the things in it to do." Parliament is deadlocked. Both the Conservative and Labour parties are deeply divided and deeply unpopular. Frans Timmermans, first vice president of the European Commission, was shocked by what he saw and heard. Or What's more, with days to go before there is a new rather what he didn't: occupant of No 10, no-one has identified a clear route to an agreement that will avoid an outcome pretty much "I thought, 'Oh my God, they haven't got a plan…they everyone says they want to avoid - a costly and haven't got a plan… it's like Lance Corporal Jones'. It disruptive no-deal Brexit. So, how did the UK end up was, 'Don't panic, don't panic,' running around like here? idiots."

For the past few months, the BBC's Panorama team has The truth is there was no plan for Brexit when the UK spoken to those with first-hand knowledge of the voted to leave. David Cameron had no Plan B when he negotiations - in Brussels, Paris and Dublin as well as called the EU referendum. One senior official says he Westminster. We've interviewed at length, on and off the stopped civil servants preparing one as he was fearful it record, the men and women who tried and failed to make might leak. a Brexit deal that both the UK and the EU could agree to. The main Leave campaign, led by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, had decided not to produce a Plan A. This is an account of 10 crucial mistakes, mishaps and They knew the choices that would have to be made misunderstandings that might explain why we haven't would split their coalition of support. left yet. Theresa May came to office without a plan. Indeed, she 1. The UK had no plan for Brexit barely mentioned Brexit in her speech in Downing Street. George Bridges was a new minister in the Brexit department created from scratch in 2016 when Theresa 2. The EU did have a plan - a plan for its own May became prime minister - a job she only got because survival the UK voted to leave the EU. Speaking to the BBC, former French President Francois At least Bridges had an office. Secretary of State David Hollande says he told his fellow EU leaders straight after Davis's political advisers had to share a cupboard, while the referendum that the UK would have to pay a price: the department's top official had to change his office three times in one day. It was chaos. "Brexit might lead to a slippery slope where others, and particularly those under the sway of populists, might Lord Bridges, who was a junior minister, assumed that decide to follow what the British have just been doing." the thinking about Brexit must be taking place somewhere else: EU leaders sensed that was on the march. Brexit was followed by the election of Donald Trump. "I was very much under the view that there would be somewhere in No 10 a very small, very secret group, When the new US president called the other President putting together an almighty chart, a big plan of how we Donald - Donald Tusk, the president of the European were going to negotiate and crucially what our overall Council - he asked a question with a hint of menace: objectives were. So, the prime minister - rather like a "Who's next?" 1

38 With elections due in France and the Netherlands in 3. "Brexit means Brexit" but what on earth did 2017, this was no mere taunt. The leader of the French that mean? National Front, Marine Le Pen, was campaigning for "Frexit". Polls suggested victory was likely for the Dutch Philip Hammond didn't like what he was hearing. far right leader Geert Wilders. Hungary, Austria and Theresa May was delivering her first speech as prime Italy were already governed by politicians who were minister to the Conservative Party Conference in 2016, highly critical of the EU. and her new chancellor of the Exchequer was sitting in the audience. There were tears in the office of Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, when he and "I was trying to keep my face dead straight, conscious his officials heard that the UK had voted to leave. that there were cameras on me," he says.

Juncker's right hand man was a formidable German May began by saying that "Brexit means Brexit and lawyer called Martin Selmayr, thought by many to be the we're going to make a success of it". That came as no most important man in Brussels. Giving his first British surprise to Hammond. He'd heard her use the phrase broadcast interview to Panorama, he says: many times before.

"I think the most important thing at this moment in time But then the prime minister continued: "Our laws will be was to preserve the unity of the other 27 member states - made not in Brussels but in Westminster. The authority to make sure that in the process that followed, all 27 saw of EU law in Britain will end." That meant that the UK eye to eye …[and] to use this moment not to further would have to leave the single market. It could not stay weaken the [European] Union, not the beginning of the as close as possible to the EU economically - like end, but the start of a new beginning for the European Norway or Switzerland. project," says Selmayr. Hammond says that he had not been consulted about the When Selmayr met the British minister he knew best, speech or the policy: David Lidington, who'd been Minister for Europe for many years and who would go on to become Theresa "I didn't know. I think the prime minister felt that as a May's de facto deputy - he spelt out what this would former remainer she needed to demonstrate her mean. Lidington recalls this conversation: credentials by presenting quite an extreme version of Brexit. Some of the things that were being said were "He said to me, 'Look David, there's not going to be the likely to have quite an impact outside the hall." traditional EU late into the night, into the wee small hours, horse trading on this. It'll be the Commission that Senior EU figures were watching and concluded that the your side talks to. We are not going to give your prime prime minister had outlined a series of undeliverable red minister the chance to try and pick us off." lines.

The UK was no longer to be treated like a member of the The man who'd written the speech was May's powerful club, in which it could seek to build alliances and divide chief of staff Nick Timothy. A passionate leaver, he had and rule the 27 countries still inside. It would be treated also dreamed up "Brexit means Brexit" - a phrase that as if it had already left. was much less empty than it seemed.

Negotiations would take place not with representatives "I plead guilty to that phrase. It was one of the most of every country but with a team led by one man - a irritating in British politics. suave silver-haired Frenchman called Michel Barnier. In his first British broadcast interview since the "Funnily enough it actually meant three different things. negotiations began, he told Panorama: Firstly, that she understood that having been a remainer when the country voted to leave she would deliver on "Everybody will have to pay a price - EU and UK - that mandate. because there is no added value to Brexit. Brexit is a negative negotiation. It is a lose-lose game for "It was [also] a warning to others - I think in particular in everybody." Parliament who were already showing signs of not really accepting the result - that Brexit must mean Brexit. Then 2

39 at a third level that Brexit must meaningfully mean Incidentally, it was not just May's closest advisers and Brexit and couldn't be a kind of shadow membership." cabinet ministers who helped convince her to call an election. Allies of Jean-Claude Juncker, a former prime In the same speech, May announced that she would soon minister himself, admit that while he would never have begin the formal process of leaving the EU by triggering advised her to call an election, he did tell her that having Article 50. Hammond believes this was a mistake, given her own mandate would help her. that there had been no real debate in the government, let alone the country, about what Brexit should mean. Juncker warned that a tiny majority in a House of Commons that was less enthusiastic about Brexit than "With the benefit of hindsight, I can now see that that the British public would cause real problems when she was wrong," he says. "The real issue is debating with eventually needed MPs to ratify a Brexit deal with the ourselves what kind of Brexit Britain wants. And we EU. should have done that before we triggered the process." 5. The clock was always ticking The chancellor says there was always going to be a tension between protecting the economy and "taking "...The UK chose itself the date for leaving in March back control" of policies like immigration. It was a 2019. This is why every time I just recall the clock is tension that was never fully resolved. ticking. Be careful eh?"

4. The first rule of politics - you have to be able Again and again, Michel Barnier reminded British to count ministers that they would have just two years to reach agreement. It was clearly stated in Article 50 of the "... She hoped to improve her position and make it Lisbon Treaty that set the rules for how a country could easier to deliver what people voted for in the leave the EU. It allowed Brussels to use time against the referendum but actually the result made that job UK. even more difficult." Senior figures in government have told me that the UK Gavin Barwell lost his seat as a Conservative MP when side misunderstood Barnier's real role. He was the public Theresa May called a general election in June 2017. He face of the negotiations and the politician who would was hired as her new chief of staff, replacing Nick keep the leaders of the EU's 27 countries on side. Timothy - the man blamed by many for her decision to go to the polls. The election left her with no majority in Barnier's deputies did the real negotiating, alongside the House of Commons. Martin Selmayr - the man whose nickname in Brussels is "the Monster" - who really decided what could and could "Those first few weeks were a pretty traumatic not be agreed by the EU. experience," says Barwell. "That was apparent from the first day I walked into No 10." Selmayr explains the thinking behind the process for the Brexit negotiations, that would give the EU control not The US President Lyndon B Johnson said: "The first rule just of the timetable but also the agenda and the order [or of politics - you have to be able to count." sequencing] of the talks. Image copyright Google Image caption Barnier with EU In other words, leaders need to be sure that they have deputy chief negotiator for Brexit Sabine Weyand ahead more people backing their policies than opposing them. of a meeting to discuss Article 50 Image copyright Getty Images Image caption May with Arlene Foster, whose DUP party the prime minister "Brexit will always be a sad event because it's a divorce. turned to for support First of all you separate the assets… the rights and duties that are stemming from 40 years of a very long and The votes of Tory MPs alone would not now give May a intense and close relationship. Then you see if you majority. She turned to Northern Ireland's Democratic remain friends afterwards or if you can remain close Unionist Party (DUP) for support. What she didn't do - friends afterwards." until it was far too late - was to try to woo opposition MPs. That was what Ted Heath had done before he took In 2017, Brexit Secretary David Davis promised a long Britain into the Common Market in 1973. hot summer when he would fight the idea that the UK 3

40 would have to agree the Brexit bill it owed - which When I asked Michel Barnier if May or her ministers would run into tens of billions of pounds - before any had ever made a no deal threat behind closed doors, he talks could begin on a future trading relationship with replied emphatically, "No", before adding, "I think that the EU. the UK side, which is well informed and competent and knows the way we work on the EU side, knew from the In the event the fight never occurred. He claims that he very beginning that we've never been impressed by such was overruled by May: a threat. It's not useful to use it."

"She felt pressurised, unconfident, maybe even insecure Selmayr agreed. "I don't think it's ever a reality for after the general election outcome. She gave away the anybody who is in a responsible position. It has fact that we were going to meet everything they wanted - consequences. It ruins your relationship for the future money and citizens' rights and so on - and get nothing and I don't think anybody responsible on the UK side or back in return." the EU side has an interest in that," he said.

6. No deal was an empty threat In fact, when I asked Selmayr if he thought the UK was prepared for that eventuality, he said he was "very David Davis never persuaded the rest of the cabinet, let certain" it was not. alone the prime minister herself, to make the threat summed up in another of her oft-repeated phrases - "no "We have seen what has been prepared on our side of the deal is better than a bad deal" - appear credible. border for a hard Brexit," he said. "We don't see the same level of preparation on the other side of the border. "The Treasury in particular would always argue you can't frighten the horses," he says. "Don't talk about it 7. The Irish border issue just wouldn't go away publicly, don't say what needs to be done, don't do the public preparation." "... That would be in many ways a symbol of the past of tragedy, of emotion, of terrorism, of murder." Davis complains that the chancellor was so nervous of spooking business that he stopped the Brexit department It was not just in Brussels that Brexit was seen as a sending out letters to tens of thousands of small threat. businesses telling them to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. In Dublin, Simon Coveney - who is now Ireland's Hammond counters that he was trying to reassure Tanaiste, or deputy head of government - says he feared business to stay in the country and to keep investing, so that there would be a return to a hard Irish border unless the last thing he wanted was anything that would have the issue was addressed right at the beginning of the the appearance of no deal. negotiations.

"There was a tension at the beginning. We didn't want to Other senior figures in the Irish government have told send business a message that we're going to crash out of the BBC that they were concerned that Ireland could be the EU and see businesses perhaps relocating - taking "dragged out" of the EU by its bigger, richer neighbour. jobs out of the United Kingdom." That is why the backstop - the issue which came to dog Brexit - was born. The official projections were clear. A no-deal Brexit would lead to 10% tariffs on car exports, and 40% tariffs After Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland and on the sale of lamb, says Hammond, as well as potential the Irish Republic would be the only land border chaos at Dover with the French being able to "dial up between the EU and the UK. If peace was to continue, and dial down" the queues at will to make a political everyone agreed that there should be no border controls. point. However, the EU's desire to protect its single market would mean there had to be checks on certain goods Hammond was not alone. One of the top officials such as farm animals and chemicals that crossed the handling Brexit told ministers that threatening no deal border. was like taking the pin out of a grenade and holding it next to your own head. The argument went that a post-Brexit Britain might do a trade deal with Donald Trump's US and could agree to 4

41 allow the import of chlorine-washed chicken or sequencing of the talks. No backstop meant no progress hormone-treated meat. Without a border, those banned to talking about trade. goods could move from north to south and into the EU, undercutting European food standards and representing What's more, Theresa May was desperate to get cheap and unfair competition to their farmers. agreement to the Treasury's top priority, which was the Image copyright Getty Images Image caption A No demand from big business for an extra two years to Border No Brexit sticker close to the Hands Across the adapt to Brexit - the so-called transition period. Divide peace statue Davis blames No 10 for agreeing to the backstop. "They Controls designed to enforce EU rules could become a signed up to the backstop because they were desperate to target for paramilitaries and encourage smuggling which make progress. They basically had a loss of nerve." for years was key to the financing of terrorism. When we put to Martin Selmayr that the deal was If the UK followed EU rules and regulations, this "swallow what you don't much like on Ireland, and get wouldn't be a problem but Ireland and the EU demanded more time", he replies: "Absolutely." a guarantee - or a backstop - that whatever trade deal was eventually signed between the two sides there could 8. The EU dreamed that the UK might change its never be a hard border. mind

Brexiteers saw this as a trap designed to keep the UK "Let's get the UK involved with France and bound to EU rules and in a customs union. Talking to the Germany. Let's see how the dust settles and let's talk BBC, the former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, sums about whether we can come to a new deal for up their fears: Europe."

"The idea that you could leave the EU, be successful and Britain's de facto deputy prime minister David Lidington demonstrate that the EU perhaps wasn't all it was cut out reveals to Panorama that he was made that startling offer to be was for them the thing that made [the EU] the most by Martin Selmayr. It followed a summit of world nervous. And the obvious answer to that was to try and leaders at which EU heads found themselves on the lock the United Kingdom in to as many EU rules as same side as Theresa May in a series of arguments with possible without any say over them and without any President Trump. means to escape from that regime, and that's the conundrum of the backstop." Selmayr explains why the offer was made:

Raab's predecessor David Davis agrees with this "All the other European leaders were left behind when position: he [Trump] took the helicopter and they looked each other in the eyes and also at Theresa May and they "They needed a lever which put us in the wrong and thought, 'At least we all agree with each other, we are them in the right, I think that's the way they saw it. the last bastion of the rules-based international system.' I [With] the Irish border there's a strong political, moral, think that led to many thinking, 'Well, if she comes back sentimental argument... based on fiction really, but tomorrow and has thought again, we wouldn't mind'." nevertheless that's how it's used." Donald Tusk once joked in public about the idea that In other words the backstop was as much about trade as Brexit could be reversed saying, "Who knows? You may it was about peace. It was as much about French say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." However, determination to protect the single market as it was this is the first time it has been confirmed that an about Irish worries about a new source of conflict. One approach and an offer was made by the European of May's closest allies told us it was the Commission to put Brexit on ice. "operationalisation by Brussels of a French idea dressed in a green jersey". The offer was rejected and some in the EU came to the view it would be better if the UK left - and left quickly. So why did the prime minister sign up to it? Because the However, the scale of opposition Theresa May faced in clock was ticking and because she'd agreed to the EU's Parliament meant others continued to believe and hope that there would be another referendum and Brexit 5

42 would not happen. This made them less likely to hardliners like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg compromise. were prepared to vote with the government. No 10 insiders claim that they had the basis of an agreement 9. MPs couldn't agree on anything which could have got DUP support as well but the vote was never held. "The two big parties have been trying to outmanoeuvre each other on Brexit, and for a long time Brexit has been "Parliament is and has been deadlocked for one simple used by the opposition party as a way of trying to trigger reason," says Julian Smith. "Large groups of MPs have a general election. For me, as somebody who loves been prepared to gamble that they could force the Britain, who's lived there, who's studied there, who has outcome they wanted - a harder Brexit or another family there, I think it's a tragedy quite frankly, that in referendum or a general election - rather than backing the face of this huge decision that the British people Theresa May's deal." have made, that the political system has not been able to unite behind a middle-ground position and unite the 10. It was all a terrible misunderstanding country." "If the only goal of the EU is this market obviously Simon Coveney is scathing about the failure of the you could think that the German car industry could British Parliament and political system to achieve force the German government to comply with the consensus on Brexit. It's a stark contrast with the unity demands coming out of London, but for Germany the which has been on show in Dublin. EU is much, much more than a market. It's their destiny, it's not revisiting the horrors of history so He blames the opposition Labour Party as well as the even the car industry itself understands that this is Tories. The government's Chief Whip, Julian Smith, says fundamentally more important than selling cars to that he has lost a lot of sleep as a result of trying - and the United Kingdom." failing - to get a deal through the House of Commons. EU leaders such as Frans Timmermans believe that "I think that there was definitely a shift from some British politicians do not understand the idealism and the Brexiteers who, if you'd asked them three years ago, history which underlies the European project. He says would they be happy with the prime minister's deal, that "continental Europeans" do not see the EU in the they'd have bitten your arm off. They then, during the same way as the United Kingdom - "as a market". course of the last year, became, I think, increasingly concerned about different elements of it, seeing some Brexiteers like Boris Johnson don't dispute the history form of threat behind many aspects of it, and there was a but they do doubt that the leaders of any country would kind of purification process - they sort of wanted willingly harm their own economies. He has said in everything on day one." public that EU countries will want to sell us their cars or cheese or even Prosecco. The Tories were hopelessly divided over what sort of Brexit deal to pursue. When May finally proposed her Did that claim infuriate Timmermans? "" she did it without ensuring that she had the support of David Davis, her Brexit secretary . "Yes it did, also, perhaps I'm being a bit harsh but it's about time we became a bit harsh also because I'm not Her allies believe that if Davis had been offered another sure he [Johnson] was being genuine, I always have the job, he would have taken it rather than quitting the impression he's playing games." Cabinet altogether. They believe that Boris Johnson Image copyright Getty Images Image caption German might then have stayed in the government. As it was he Chancellor Angela Merkel meets May in Berlin to became the figurehead for those wanting to "chuck discuss Brexit, ahead of a summit of European Union Chequers" and, eventually, to chuck Theresa May as leaders in Brussels well. David Lidington - a lifelong pro-European - agrees that The chief whip also blames the Speaker for blocking the EU has always seen itself as a political project but Brexit. John Bercow ruled that the government could not says it takes two to create a misunderstanding. He says bring back its withdrawal agreement to the Commons that EU leaders have too often dismissed British after it had been defeated twice. By this time, even

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43 demands as driven purely by short-term political pressures rather than principle:

"They thought Tories were simply pandering to UKIP or the DUP and never understood that , a desire for sovereignty, support for the Union were real forces that any political leader and party would have to address."

Those misunderstandings have dogged the Brexit negotiations as both sides have miscalculated how the other side will react.

What has not been tested yet is whether the credible threat of no deal, a refusal to compromise on the Irish border and a willingness to withhold the £39bn divorce bill which Britain has agreed to pay will improve or destroy the chances of getting a deal.

We're about to find out.

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Brexit Under Boris Johnson: Deal or No Deal? By Richard Pérez-Peña Why is “no deal” a big deal? July 23, 2019 One economic authority after another has reported that a sudden no-deal Brexit would do deep, lasting harm to LONDON — The ascension of a new prime minister in Britain. Even a careful, orderly departure like the one Britain has raised both fears and hopes (depending on proposed by Mrs. May would depress economic growth the audience) that the country might leave the European compared with staying in the European Union, they Union cold turkey — no trade agreement in place, no contend. political pact, not even a framework for further talks. Similar conclusions have been published by the Three times this year, Parliament emphatically rejected International Monetary Fund, the Bank of England, the the withdrawal deal that Theresa May negotiated with British Treasury and, most recently, Britain’s Office for Brussels as prime minister, ultimately forcing her to step Budget Responsibility, among others. down. In fact, since voters approved Brexit three years ago, the She had flirted with the idea of a “no-deal” Brexit, but mere prospect of it has harmed the British economy, that may have been no more than a negotiating stance. economists and business executives say, as it prods When her back was to the wall, she agreed twice to companies, investors and job-seekers to go elsewhere. delay the country’s departure, most recently to Oct. 31, to allow time for reaching an agreement. Experts warn that crashing out of the bloc without a plan could bring travel disruptions and shortages of food, Her designated successor, Boris Johnson, insists that medicine and other goods. while he intends to hammer out a better agreement, Britain will leave the union by that deadline, even if that But many ardent Brexiteers, including Mr. Johnson, means exiting without a deal. insist that such fears are overblown, or just wrong. They contend that being free to negotiate its own trade deals, There are far more questions than answers available, but set its own immigration policies and stop paying into the this is what we know. European Union will benefit Britain in the long run. What does “no deal” actually mean? Some even wave off predictions of short-term pain. Relations among nations are exceedingly complex, with “It is total nonsense,” Mr. Johnson said this month. “I pacts on migration, customs checks, tariffs and product prophesy very confidently that we will have a successful standards, among many things. Belonging to the Brexit, the planes will fly, there will be clean drinking European Union radically simplifies that: no trade or water and there will be whey for the Mars bars.” migration barriers between member countries, no What does Parliament think? differences in product rules, and unified trade pacts with the rest of the world. Parliament opposes a no-deal exit. In fact, that may be the only clear statement on Brexit that this Parliament In the absence of that system, Mrs. May and the bloc has been able to make. negotiated a withdrawal agreement that was almost 600 pages long, just to get through the next two years, until On March 13, the House of Commons took up a motion more permanent arrangements could be reached. that Britain should not leave without a deal on March 29, which was then the deadline for withdrawal from the Leaving abruptly without a deal would mean new union. Over the government’s vehement opposition, customs and tariff barriers, and would put Britain under lawmakers amended that to oppose a no-deal Brexit at World Trade Organization trading rules, which any time, under any circumstances, and then passed the economists say are less advantageous and do not fill in amended motion, 321 to 278. all of the relevant blanks. The motion was nonbinding, but it was an Various policies and systems would have to be built embarrassment — one of a long series related to Brexit from scratch while long-term agreements are negotiated — for Mrs. May. It was widely believed that without the with the European Union, the United States and every government’s pressure, the vote would have been more other trading partner, which experts say would take lopsided. years.

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45 So what can Mr. Johnson do? Mr. Johnson wants to strike an agreement of his own with Brussels by Oct. 31 — specifically, one without the controversial Irish border provisions in Mrs. May’s deal — but that may not be possible. European Union leaders have said repeatedly that they will not reopen negotiations and that the deal they reached with Mrs. May is the only one they will consider. Even if the bloc were bluffing, it is not clear that there would be time to draft a new pact by the deadline. The deal on the table was the product of almost two years’ negotiations. But if Mr. Johnson is serious about leaving without a deal, all he would have to do is nothing. As things stand, the country will leave the European Union on Oct. 31 whether there is any agreement in place or not, under current British law. Can Parliament prevent that? Possibly. Parliament can change the law and instruct the prime minister to seek another extension. There is debate about how binding that instruction would be on the prime minister, but it would not commit the European Union to an extension. All 28 heads of government would have to agree to push back the deadline, and some of them were reluctant the last time. There has been much talk about the possibility that Mr. Johnson could prorogue, or suspend, Parliament as the deadline approaches to prevent lawmakers from directing him to request an extension. Prime ministers often suspend Parliament, simply to take a month or two off. Doing it requires the assent of the monarch, which in modern times has always been given. But to suspend Parliament as a political tactic, and to involve Queen Elizabeth II in the dispute, would be unusual and controversial, and could anger some of Mr. Johnson’s fellow Conservatives. The party’s hold on power is tenuous, and if even a few of its lawmakers joined in a vote of no confidence, they could topple him. On Thursday, the House of Commons voted, 315, to 274, to make it more difficult to prorogue Parliament. The vote, on a measure that still needs final approval, would require that the house meet before the end of October — at which point, presumably, lawmakers could vote to block a no-deal Brexit.

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46 Mrs May's deal with the EU had two main elements - a binding withdrawal agreement (on the terms of the UK's departure) and a non-binding political declaration (on the Brexit: What happens now? shape of the long-term future relationship). The deal was resoundingly rejected by MPs. By Peter Barnes Senior elections and political analyst, BBC News Mr Johnson's plan is to negotiate with the EU to remove the Northern Ireland backstop from the withdrawal 26 July 2019 agreement (WA). The backstop was designed to ensure New UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he plans to there could be no return to a hard border on the island of renegotiate the Brexit deal agreed with the EU by his Ireland. (It would keep the UK in a customs union with predecessor Theresa May. He says he is committed to the EU if there is no free trade agreement that avoids a leaving on 31 October come what may. hard border ie physical infrastructure and checks on goods.) That does not mean we can be certain about what will happen. There are still many possible outcomes. Mr Johnson would also like changes to the political declaration. The difficulty is that up to now the EU has consistently said it will not reopen the withdrawal agreement, although the EU is open to changes to the political declaration. Mr Johnson insists they will reconsider now it is clear that the British government is prepared to leave without a deal. And he says that the backstop is unnecessary to prevent a hard border. Another factor is time. Nothing much is usually done in Brussels during August, and the new European Commission does not take office until 1 November. Mr Johnson is determined that Brexit should happen on 31 October, even if a new deal has been agreed in principle but not ratified and brought into law. In those circumstances there would almost certainly be questions about whether a short delay was sensible. Perhaps the biggest question, though, is what would happen if no new deal is negotiated - or if MPs reject whatever new deal is brought back. 1. No deal No-deal Brexit is still the default outcome if MPs cannot agree anything else and there are no further extensions. The deadline is 31 October. It would also be possible for MPs to back a no-deal Brexit, although there has been a majority against that option when they have voted on it before. There has been considerable discussion about whether MPs would be able to stop no deal if the new prime minister was determined to press ahead. It has been suggested Mr Johnson could prorogue Parliament to let a no-deal Brexit happen. Proroguing effectively means Parliament is shut down - there would be no debates or votes.

In July, MPs and Lords voted for a measure that attempts to stop Parliament being closed down. 1

47 If MPs did want to oppose no-deal Brexit and did get a confidence, then an early general election would be chance to do so, their ultimate weapon would be ousting called. the prime minster through a confidence vote. That election cannot happen for at least 25 working 2. Another no-confidence vote days. Theresa May's government survived a vote of no 3. Call a general election confidence on 16 January by 325 votes to 306. Labour If there is no new deal that can get through Parliament, could table a no confidence motion in the new and if MPs will not accept no-deal Brexit, the new prime government at any time. minister could decide on an early election to break the deadlock.

The prime minister does not have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, Mr Johnson could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.

4. Another referendum Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, UK general elections are only supposed to happen every five A further possibility is to hold another referendum. years. The next one is due in 2022. It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, But a vote of no confidence lets MPs vote on whether which was legally non-binding and advisory. But some they want the government to continue. The motion must MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result be worded: "That this House has no confidence in Her would automatically take effect - like with the 2011 Majesty's Government." referendum on changing the voting system for UK general elections. If a majority of MPs vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown. One widely discussed option would be for a "confirmatory vote" - where the public would be given If during that time the current government or any other the choice between accepting a deal or remaining in the alternative government cannot win a new vote of EU.

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Others argue that any further referendum should have the option of leaving the EU without a deal. Either way, a referendum cannot just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote. It could not be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question. The question is then defined in the legislation. Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum could not happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place. Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks. That already takes us beyond 31 October. 5. Cancel Brexit The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries). It is not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.

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49 Economic effects of Brexit

From Wikipedia, the free methodologies used in long-term forecasts are "well- encyclopedia established and robust".[21][22][24][25] The economic effects of Brexit were Long-term impact on the UK economy a major area of debate during the Referendum on UK There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement membership of the European Union after the Leave vote. among economists that leaving the European Union will There is a broad consensus among economists that adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and Brexit will likely reduce the real per-capita income level long-term.[a][39] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed in the UK.[1][2][3][4] overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce Supporters for remaining in the EU, including the UK the UK's real per-capita income level.[40][30][31] 2019 and treasury, argue that being in the EU has a strong positive 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that effect on trade.[5] Supporters for withdrawal from the EU the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of have argued that the cessation of net contributions to the 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[39] and a cost of between 1–10% of EU would allow for some cuts to taxes or increase in the UK's income per capita.[27] These estimates differ government spending.[6] depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[27] In January 2018, the UK government's own Immediate impact on the UK economy Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic According to one study, the referendum result had growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[41][42] 2017, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average According to most economists, EU membership has a British household.[7] Studies published in 2018 estimated strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's that the economic costs of the Brexit vote were 2% of trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[43][44][45][46] GDP,[8][9][10] or 2.5% of GDP.[11] According to a According to a study by University of Cambridge December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts referendum results had reduced national British income to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would by 0.6% and 1.3%.[12] A 2018 analysis by Stanford be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers University and Nottingham University economists and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[47] A estimated that uncertainty around Brexit reduced 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are investment by businesses by approximately 6 percentage systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in points and caused an employment reduction by 1.5 any other country."[48] A 2017 study examining the percentage points.[13] A number of studies found that economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in Brexit-induced uncertainty about the UK's future trade migration" found that there would likely be "a policy reduced British international trade from June significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and 2016 onwards.[14][15][16][17][18] A 2019 analysis found that GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the British firms substantially increased offshoring to the low-skill service sector."[49][27] It is unclear how changes European Union after the Brexit referendum, whereas in trade and foreign investment will interact with European firms reduced new investments in the immigration, but these changes are likely to be UK.[19][20] important.[27] Short-term macroeconomic forecasts by the Bank of The Divorce Bill England and other banks of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum were too Since fiscal impacts will play a major role in the pessimistic.[21] The assessments assumed that the outcome of Brexit, Theresa May has stated that money referendum results would create greater uncertainty in will be taking first place as the key importance markets and reduce consumer confidence more than it surrounding Brexit, the others being borders and laws. did.[21] A number of economists noted that short-term The Divorce Bill is essentially a financial settlement in macroeconomic forecasts are generally considered which the United Kingdom must pay off their liabilities unreliable, as they are something that academic to the EU.[29] This includes, for example, unpaid economists do not do, but rather banks do.[22][23][21][24] contributions to the EU's multi-year finances. There is Economists have compared short-term economic no current set figure for the bill but estimates have forecasts to weather forecasts whereas the long-term shown it to be at least £39bn which could see increases economic forecasts are akin to climate forecasts: the as far as 2022.[50] First year costs (2018–2019) are

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50 expected to be close to £14bn and decreasing to £7bn by terms of country attractiveness and foreign direct 2022–2023.[29] investment (FDI): "Country risk experts we spoke to are confident the UK's economy will remain robust in the Movement of companies event of an exit from the EU. 'The economic Following the Brexit referendum, many companies attractiveness of Britain will not go down and a trade shifted assets, offices, or businesses operations out of war with London is in no one's interest,' says M Nicolas Britain and to continental Europe.[51] By the beginning of Firzli, director-general of the World Pensions Council April 2019, banks had transferred more than US$1 (WPC) and advisory board member for the World Bank trillion out of Britain, and asset management and Global Infrastructure Facility [...] Bruce Morley, lecturer insurance companies transferred US$130 billion out of in economics at the University of Bath, goes further to Britain.[51] suggest that the long-term benefits to the UK of leaving A March 2019 report from the independent research the Union, such as less regulation and more control over Britain's trade policy, could outweigh the short-term institute New Financial identified 269 companies in the [56] banking or financial services sector that had relocated uncertainty observed in the [country risk] scores." portions of their businesses or staff following Brexit; of The mooted importance of the UK's membership of the these moves, 239 were confirmed as Brexit-related.[52] EU as a lure for FDI has long been stressed by The greatest number of moves were to Dublin (30%), supporters of the UK's continued involvement in the EU. followed by Luxembourg (18%), Frankfurt (12%), Paris In this view, foreign firms see the UK as a gateway to (12%), and Amsterdam (10%).[52] other EU markets, with the UK economy benefiting Contributions to the EU from its resulting attractiveness as a location for activity. The UK is certainly a major recipient of FDI. In 2014, it See also: Brexit and arrangements for science and held the second largest stock of inward investment in the technology world, amounting to just over £1 trillion or almost 7% of Supporters of withdrawal argued that ending net the global total. This was more than double the 3% contributions to the EU would allow for tax cuts or accounted for by Germany and France. On a per capita government spending increases.[6] On the basis of basis, the UK is the clear front-runner among major Treasury figures, in 2014 the United Kingdom's gross economies with a stock of FDI around three times larger national contribution (ignoring the rebate) was £18.8 than the level in other major European economies and billion, about 1% of GDP, or £350 million a week. 50% larger than in the US. Because the UK receives (per capita) less EU spending Property market than other member states, a rebate was negotiated; net of this rebate, the contribution was £14.4 billion, The BBC reported on 28 April 2017 that property approximately 0.8% of GDP, or £275 million a week. If investment firm JLL (company) data shows Asian EU spending in Britain is also taken into account, the investors accounted for 28% of the transactions in the average net contribution for the next five years is UK property market in 2016, up from the 17% the year estimated at about £8 billion a year, which is about 0.4% before — indicating that Brexit is not dissuading Asian of national income, or £150 million per week.[53] The property investors. The BBC also cited Chinese Institute for Fiscal Studies have said that the majority of international property portal Juwai.com, which reported a 60% increase in enquiries into UK property in the prior forecasts of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy [57] indicated that the government would have less money to 12 months. Property firm CBRE Group said in spend even if it no longer had to pay into the EU.[54] January 2017 that Brexit has increased risk in UK property markets by creating new uncertainties.[58] Single market Stock markets and currencies According to economist Paul Krugman, Brexiteers' assertions that leaving the single market and customs When the London Stock Exchange opened on Friday 24 union might increase UK exports to the rest of the world June 2016, the FTSE 100 fell from 6338.10 to 5806.13 are wrong. He considers the costs of Brexit might be in the first ten minutes of trading. It recovered to 6091.27 after a further 90 minutes before further around 2 per cent of GDP.[55] recovering to 6162.97 by the end of the day's trading. Foreign direct investment This equated to a fall of 3% by the close of trading.[59] European experts from the World Pensions Council When the markets reopened the following Monday, the FTSE 100 showed a steady decline, losing over 2% by (WPC) and the University of Bath have argued that, [60] beyond short-lived market volatility, the long term mid-afternoon. Upon opening later on the Friday after economic prospects of Britain remain high, notably in the referendum, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average 2

51 dropped nearly 450 points or about 2.5% in less than predicting an economic downturn due to the referendum half an hour. The Associated Press called the sudden have so far been inaccurate and noted strong market worldwide stock market decline a stock market crash.[61] performance since the referendum.[81][82][83] Internationally, more than US$2 trillion of wealth in Economy and business equities markets was wiped out in the highest one-day sell-off in recorded history, in absolute terms.[62][63] The On 27 June, Chancellor of the Exchequer George stock market losses amounted to a total of 3 trillion US Osborne attempted to reassure financial markets that the dollars by 27 June;[64] up to the same date, the FTSE 100 UK economy was not in serious trouble. This came after index had lost £85 billion.[65] Near the close of trading media reports that a survey by the Institute of Directors on 27 June, the domestically-focused FTSE 250 Index suggested that two-thirds of businesses believed that the was down approximately 14% compared to the day outcome of the referendum would produce negative before the referendum results were published.[66] results as well as falls in the value of sterling and the FTSE 100. Some British businesses had also predicted However, by 1 July the FTSE 100 had risen above pre- that investment cuts, hiring freezes and redundancies referendum levels, to a ten-month high. Taking the would be necessary to cope with the results of the previous fall into account, this represented the index's referendum.[84] Osborne indicated that Britain was facing largest single-week rise since 2011.[67] On 11 July, it the future "from a position of strength" and there was no officially entered bull market territory, having risen by current need for an emergency Budget.[85] "No-one more than 20% from its February low.[68] The FTSE 250 should doubt our resolve to maintain the fiscal stability moved above its pre-referendum level on 27 July.[69] In we have delivered for this country .... And to companies, the US, the S&P 500, a broader market than the Dow large and small, I would say this: the British economy is Jones, reached an all-time high on 11 July.[70] fundamentally strong, highly competitive and we are On the morning of 24 June, the pound sterling fell to its open for business."[86] lowest level against the US dollar since 1985,[71] On 14 July Philip Hammond, Osborne's successor as marking the pound down 10% against the US dollar and Chancellor, told BBC News the referendum result had 7% against the euro. The drop from $1.50 to $1.37 was caused uncertainty for businesses, and that it was the biggest move for the currency in any two-hour important to send "signals of reassurance" to encourage period in history.[72] The pound remained low, and on 8 investment and spending. He also confirmed there would July became the worst performing currency of the year, not be an emergency budget: "We will want to work against 31 other major currencies, performing worse closely with the governor of the Bank of England and than the Argentine peso, the previous lowest currency.[73] others through the summer to prepare for the Autumn By contrast, the pound's trade-weighted index is only Statement, when we will signal and set out the plans for back at levels seen in the period 2008–2013.[74][75][76] the economy going forward in what are very different The referendum result also had an immediate economic circumstances that we now face, and then those plans effect on a number of other countries. The South African will be implemented in the Budget in the spring in the rand experienced its largest single-day decline since usual way."[87] 2008, dropping in value by over 8% against the US It was expected that the weaker pound would also dollar.[77][78] Other countries negatively affected included benefit aerospace and defence firms, pharmaceutical Canada, whose stock exchange fell 1.70%,[79] Nigeria,[78] companies, and professional services companies; the and Kenya.[78] This was partly due to a general global share prices of these companies were boosted after the financial shift out of currencies seen as risky and into the EU referendum.[88] US dollar, and partly due to concerns over how the UK's withdrawal from the EU would affect the economies and On 12 July, the global investment management company trade relations of countries with close economic links to BlackRock predicted the UK would experience a the United Kingdom.[77][78] recession in late 2016 or early 2017 as a result of the vote to leave the EU, and that economic growth would However, by September 2016 British media had reported slow down for at least five years because of a reduction that ignoring so-called '' scaremongering had in investment.[89] On 18 July, the UK-based economic rewarded those shareholders who ignored the associated forecasting group EY ITEM club suggested the country pessimism, after the FTSE250 broke all records in the would experience a "short shallow recession" as the months following the referendum.[80] economy suffered "severe confidence effects on On 5 January 2017, Andy Haldane, the Chief Economist spending and business"; it also cut its economic growth and the Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and forecasts for the UK from 2.6% to 0.4% in 2017, and Statistics at the Bank of England, admitted that forecasts 2.4% to 1.4% for 2018. The group's chief economic 3

52 adviser, Peter Soencer, also argued there would be more provide substantial liquidity in foreign currency if long-term implications, and that the UK "may have to required. We expect institutions to draw on this funding adjust to a permanent reduction in the size of the if and when appropriate. economy, compared to the trend that seemed possible It will take some time for the UK to establish a new prior to the vote".[90] Senior City investor Richard relationship with Europe and the rest of the world. So Buxton also argued there would be a "mild recession".[91] some market and economic volatility can be expected as On 19 July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this process unfolds, but we are well prepared for this. reduced its 2017 economic growth forecast for the UK Her Majesty's Treasury and the Bank of England have from 2.2% to 1.3%, but still expected Britain to be the engaged in extensive contingency planning and the second fastest growing economy in the G7 during 2016; chancellor and I have remained in close contact the IMF also reduced its forecasts for world economic including through the night and this morning. The Bank growth by 0.1% to 3.1% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017, as a of England will not hesitate to take additional measure result of the referendum, which it said had "thrown a as required, as markets adjust. spanner in the works" of global recovery.[92] Nonetheless, share prices of the five largest British On 20 July, a report released by the Bank of England banks fell an average of 21% on the morning after the said that although uncertainty had risen "markedly" since referendum.[97] Shares in many other non-UK banks also the referendum, it was yet to see evidence of a sharp fell by more than 10%.[98] By the end of Friday's trading, economic decline as a consequence. However, around a both HSBC and Standard Chartered had fully recovered, third of contacts surveyed for the report expected there while Lloyds, RBS Group and Barclays remained more to be "some negative impact" over the following year.[93] than 10% down.[99] All of the Big Three credit rating agencies reacted negatively to the vote: Standard & In September 2016, following three months of positive Poor's cut the UK credit rating from AAA to AA, Fitch economic data after the referendum, commentators Group cut from AA+ to AA, and Moody's cut the UK's suggested that many of the negative statements and outlook to "negative".[100] predictions promoted from within the "remain" camp had failed to materialise,[80] but by December, analysis To increase financial stability, on 5 July the Bank of began to show that Brexit was having an effect on England released £150 billion in lending by reducing the inflation.[94] countercyclical capital buffers that banks are required to hold.[101] Research by the 'Centre for European Reform'[clarification needed] suggests the UK economy is 2.5% smaller than it Fears of a fall in commercial property values led would have been if Remain had won the referendum. investors to begin redeeming investments in property Public finances fell by £26bn a year. This amounts to funds, prompting Standard Life to bar withdrawals on 4 £500m a week and is growing. An estimate suggested July, and Aviva followed suit the next day.[102] Other Britain's economy is 2.1% smaller than it would have investment companies including Henderson Group and been after the first quarter of 2018.[95] M&G Investments cut the amount that investors cashing in their funds would receive.[102] In the following weeks, Financial institutions the suspension of redemptions by several companies was On the day after the referendum, Bank of England lifted, replaced by exit penalties, and the exit penalties Governor Mark Carney told a press conference:[96] were successively reduced.[103] The capital requirements of our largest banks are now 10 On 4 October 2016, the Financial Times assessed the times higher than before the financial crisis. The Bank of potential effect of Brexit on banking. The City of England has stress-tested those banks against scenarios London is world leading in financial services, especially far more severe than our country currently faces. As a in foreign exchange currency transactions, including result of these actions UK banks have raised over a euros.[104][105][106][107][108] This position is enabled by the £130bn of new capital and now have more than £600bn EU-wide "passporting" agreement for financial products. of high quality liquid assets. That substantial capital and Should the passporting agreement expire in the event of huge liquidity gives banks the flexibility they need to a Brexit, the British financial service industry might lose continue to lend to UK businesses and households even up to 35,000 of its 1 million jobs, and the Treasury during challenging times. might lose 5 billion pounds annually in tax revenue. Moreover, as a backstop to support the functioning of Indirect effects could increase these numbers to 71,000 the markets the Bank of England stands ready to provide job losses and 10 billion pounds of tax annually. The more than £250bn of additional funds through its normal latter would correspond to about 2% of annual British market operations. The Bank of England is also able to tax revenue.[109]

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53 By July 2016 the Senate of Berlin had sent invitation But the situation may be different when it comes to the letters encouraging UK-based start-ups to re-locate to fund management industry, as British asset owners, Berlin.[110] According to Anthony Browne of the British notably UK pension funds, often constitute an Banking Association, many major and minor banks may incommensurate share of total turnover for German, relocate outside the UK.[111] French, Dutch and other Continental European asset managers. Economists have warned that London's future as an international financial centre depends on whether the UK This imbalance could potentially give Britain some will obtain passporting rights for British banks from the negotiating leverage e.g. power of retorsion in case the European Union. If banks located in the UK cannot EU attempts to impose an abrupt cancellation of the obtain passporting rights, they have strong incentives to mutually-binding obligations and advantages pertaining relocate to financial centres within the EU.[112][113] to the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004 According to John Armour, Professor of Law and ("fund passporting"). Research conducted by the World Finance at Oxford University, "a 'soft' Brexit, whereby Pensions Council (WPC) shows that the UK leaves the EU but remains in the single market, "Assets owned by UK pension funds are more than 11 would be a lower-risk option for the British financial times bigger than those of all German and French industry than other Brexit options, because it would pension funds put together […] If need be, at the first enable financial services firms to continue to rely on hint of threat to the City of London, Her Majesty’s regulatory passporting rights."[113] Government should be in a position to respond very Asset management companies forcefully."[114]

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54 position is that Britain will leave without a deal, something many economists think could hurt the Could Boris Johnson’s ‘no-deal’ Brexit country. crack up the United Kingdom? In a rare intervention into domestic British politics, Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, recently warned that By Karla Adam and William Booth a hard Brexit could undermine U.K. unity. July 29, 2019 “One of the things, ironically, that could really LONDON — On Boris Johnson’s first day as Britain’s undermine the union, the United Kingdom union, is a head of government, the loquacious Ian Blackford stood hard Brexit,” Varadkar said Friday. The leader of the in the House of Commons and welcomed “the last prime Republic of Ireland, which will remain in the European minister of the United Kingdom.” Union, warned that Northern Ireland could seek to exit the United Kingdom. Blackford, the Scottish National Party’s leader in Parliament, was not being subtle. He was suggesting that “People who you might describe as moderate with Johnson as prime minister, the United Kingdom nationalists or moderate Catholics, who were more or might soon crack up, beginning with Scotland. less happy with the status quo, will look more towards a ,” Varadkar said. Scotland voted against independence in 2014, but there is much animosity toward Johnson north of the border, Some in government sounded similar alarm bells. and a palpable dread over leaving the European Union Theresa May’s de facto deputy prime minister, David — especially the hard, “no-deal Brexit” that the new Lidington, told the BBC earlier this month that the union prime minister says Britain must prepare for. “would be under much greater strain in the event of a no deal.” In the country’s 2016 Brexit referendum, Scotland voted to remain in the E.U. by a wide margin, 62 percent to 38 He added: “My view comes not just from Scottish percent. nationalism and pressure for Irish unification — it comes from indifference among English opinion to the value of Johnson dashed up to Scotland on Monday, with a the union.” scheduled stop at a military base and a speech in the afternoon. Gordon Brown, a former Labour Party prime minister, said at an event in London last week that Johnson could The new prime minister is a divisive character — loved be remembered “not as the 55th prime minister of the and very much disliked — across the United Kingdom, a UK but as the first prime minister of England.” political union comprising four nations: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Or as Johnson Nationalists in Scotland who want the U.K. to split are called it on the steps of Downing Street last week, “the hoping that Johnson’s premiership is equivalent to awesome foursome that are incarnated in that red, white Christmas coming early. Blackford has called Johnson a and blue flag,” the Union Jack. “recruiting tool” for the cause. In Scotland, Johnson is expected to praise “the most Johnson certainly attracts attention. successful political and economic union in history” and Within hours of his winning the Conservative Party to assure the north that “we are a global brand, and leadership race, hundreds of protesters gathered in together we are safer, stronger and more prosperous.” central Glasgow for an “anti-Boris, pro-independence” It has become something of a ritual for British leaders to rally, some carrying placards that read “Boris No! visit each of the nations early on as a way to demonstrate Independence Yes!” and “Eton mess.” their commitment to the union — and their Gary Kelly, 44, started planning the protest a week understanding of the devolved, power-sharing before when he said it became clear that Johnson was governments, which allow Scotland, Wales and Northern likely to be selected as Conservative leader by the Ireland to maintain their own parliaments with some party’s 160,000 dues-paying members — about 0.25 power over regional spending and decision-making. percent of the British electorate — who largely live in But some are concerned that the “awesome foursome” the southern half of England. Johnson bested his rival, could get wobbly, especially without an E.U. withdrawal drawing 92,153 votes. agreement. Johnson says he wants a new better Brexit “Not exactly a stonewalled mandate, is it? It’s an deal with Europe but has promised to leave the E.U. at English vote, an English prime minister,” said Kelly, the end of October “no ifs, no buts.” The current legal who predicted that a Johnson government would be a 1

55 boost for Scottish independence, which he supports. a Westminster person — it all conjures up for the Scots “Boris is a racist, a homophobe. He’s a bigot. He’s not English privilege.” the kind of person Scotland wants representing them.” And it’s not just Johnson. Scotland is largely an anti- A poll last month found that 49 percent of Scots favored Conservative part of the world. The Scottish National independence but that the number would rise to 53 Party has dominated the landscape for about a decade. percent in the event Johnson became prime minister. For half a century before that, Scotland was a Labour Party stronghold. It's far from clear whether a Johnson administration could continue to tip the scales in favor of independence, But Ruth Davidson, the charismatic leader of the or whether the new prime minister may yet win over Scottish Conservatives, has helped to transform her Scots with his shiny optimism and numerous public- party’s fortunes north of the border, winning 13 seats in spending pledges. But a chaotic no-deal Brexit could Parliament in the last election — not an insignificant help the Scottish National Party (SNP) to make its case. number for the Tories, who have a paper-thin working majority of just two. John Curtice, a politics professor at the University of Strathclyde, said that if a Johnson government leaves the Davidson has been notably lukewarm on Johnson. bloc without a deal, “and if it’s as bad as some claim it “He’s a disaster for her,” said Thomas Lundberg, a will be, then obviously it’s easier for the SNP to pursue lecturer in politics at the University of Glasgow. the independence argument.” Johnson, he told The Post, represents the Since the independence referendum five years ago, “quintessentially English posh person who has made it support for independence has generally hovered around through privilege and contacts, rather than merit.” the mid-40 percent range. Davidson is not Johnson’s biggest fan. She reportedly He also added that Johnson — who was the leader of banned him from attending the recent Scottish Tory Brexit campaign in 2016 — is deeply unpopular across conference. She backed his rivals in the leadership the United Kingdom with people who voted against contest. During the 2016 E.U. referendum, she fired up Brexit. Of the four nations, Scotland and Northern the pro-E.U. side during a televised debate by saying Ireland voted against Brexit; England and Wales voted that Johnson’s side had told a series of lies. for it. After Johnson became prime minister, Davidson told Johnson has dismissed accusations that he is unpopular BBC Scotland, “I’ve been a critic of Boris Johnson when in Scotland. When asked about it in Parliament last our ideas have differed and when I thought he merited it, week, he responded by explaining “why I seem to get a and I will continue to be so.” good reception in Scotland.” But now that he is leader, she said, she would judge him “It may be because the people of Scotland recognize that “by his actions in office.” they have a common-sensical Conservative approach,

which would not hand back control of their fisheries to Brussels just as Scotland has regained control of its fantastic fish,” he said. A YouGov survey last week showed that 65 percent of Scots thought that Johnson would be a “poor” or “terrible” prime minister. Leafing through different regional editions of the same newspaper does seem to suggest that there are varying views on Johnson across the British Isles. Roy Greenslade, a media commentator, said in an interview with The Washington Post that the news coverage of Johnson has been negative in Scotland, where Johnson’s background — he studied at the elite Eton College before going on to Oxford — does him no favors. “Boris embodies all that the average working-class Scots person finds disagreeable,” he said. “Eton, Oxford, being 2

56 1 AUG 2019 How Boris Johnson could trigger the breakup of the United Kingdom

Martin Kettle minister, Mark Drakeford, in Cardiff before heading to Belfast. The prime minister may end up doing more for Welsh independence than the nationalist hero Owain Glyndŵr Wales was not included in the Johnsonian progress merely for completeness’s sake. It was also there Thu 1 Aug 2019 01.00 EDT Last modified on Thu 1 because of Thursday’s byelection in the vast and lovely Aug 2019 06.05 EDT mid-Wales rural constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. The result will test whether there is the Johnson bounce for the Tory party that his supporters crave, or whether Jo Swinson will be celebrating a Liberal Democrat recapture of a seat that the old Liberal party first won in a famous 1985 byelection. Yet Wales should never be overlooked. In discussions Illustration: Sébastien Thibault about the UK’s constitutional and political distresses, Wales is all too often treated as an afterthought. The In a distant echo of a medieval monarch’s royal progress reasons are not hard to see. Modern Wales has endured around the realm, Boris Johnson has been journeying on little of the existential pain of Northern Ireland. The a prime ministerial grand tour around the country to nationalist cause has never carved through Welsh show his new subjects who is boss. Last weekend it was politics the way it has in Scotland. Wales has been northern England; on Monday, Scotland; Tuesday was welded to England for far longer than the other nations. Wales day and Wednesday was the turn of Northern And its support for devolution was often lukewarm. Ireland. Yet amid the more eye-catching convulsions of Brexit These visits contained none of the celebratory pageants elsewhere, the old idea that nothing is likely to change in that would have been expected in the middle ages. the relationship between Wales and England is looking Instead, the new leader was whisked in and then out lazy. That’s not to say that Welsh independence is on the again. Much of the tour has been controlled. Journalists cards any time soon. But it most definitely is to say that were mostly kept at a distance. In the streets, boos seem support for Welsh independence is liable to rise, and to have been more common than cheers. possibly to rise quite fast if Brexit eventually triggers It is hard to dispute the widening gulf between current either Irish reunification or Scottish independence, let reality and the rhetoric of Johnson’s ‘awesome alone both. foursome' Johnson’s personality contributes its own flame-thrower Like Theresa May did, Johnson talks the talk about to this combustible mix. His insouciance this week about holding the United Kingdom together amid the the devastation that threatens the Welsh hill-farming disruption of Brexit. He has even cast himself as industry from a no-deal Brexit could come back to haunt minister for the union. But it is hard to dispute the him, and not just on the sheep-farms of Brecon and widening gulf between current reality and the rhetoric of Radnorshire. The land, like the language, plays a both May’s “precious union” and Johnson’s “awesome dynamic role in nationalist consciousness. Angry foursome”. Tours like Johnson’s only emphasise that farmers can make a leader suddenly vulnerable. Look this union is increasingly divided – and perhaps even what they and the “gilets jaunes” did to Emmanuel breaking apart. Macron. Politically, by far the most urgent stop on Johnson’s tour But this volatility is not simply about Johnson’s Marmite was in Northern Ireland. The most fraught of the visits personality. Nor is it simply about the single-mindedness was probably the one to Scotland. But in many ways the of the nationalist parties to exploit every situation for the most telling trip was Johnson’s foray into Wales on separatist cause. It is also structurally bound up with Tuesday, when he cuddled a chicken in Newport, visited Brexit itself, whatever the terms. a retail company in Brecon and met Wales’s Labour first

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In a lecture in June, the civil servant formerly in charge Even Drakeford said in July that his support for the UK of the Brexit department, Philip Rycroft, laid this on the was not “unconditional” and that, if other parts seceded, line. “The fact of Brexit poses a series of challenges at a it would be sensible “to reassess Wales’s place in the practical, as well as an existential, level to the current components that were there in the future”. governance of the United Kingdom,” Rycroft said. “It Wales is no exception to the disruption of old ideas that seems clear that this and any future UK government is Brexit is causing. Only this week, Plaid Cymru came going to have to devote considerable time and effort to first for the first time in a Welsh Assembly voting reworking its policy towards the union.” He concluded: intention poll . There are many differences, but the “Our sense of social cohesion, indeed the very cohesion overturning of the old order that occurred in Scotland a of the United Kingdom, will depend on it.” generation ago could now be starting to repeat itself in Rycroft offered some well-chosen illustrations. What if Wales too. Labour has never been weaker, and Jeremy Scotland chooses to subsidise its fishing fleets while Corbyn refuses to engage on these identity issues. But it England does not? What if Welsh hill-farmers secure a is a big stretch to say that Labour’s decline means Wales differential subsidy rate for their lamb that northern will soon be pressing for or achieving independence. English hill-farmers cannot access? “The requirement Five hundred years of union are unlikely to dissolve in a for increased agreement across a whole range of new hurry. Yet modern politics is nothing if not volatile. territory increases the scope for friction,” he concludes. Wales’s sense of nationhood takes many forms and has “It will put new pressure on a system of inter- gone through many changes, but its existence as a living governmental relations that was devised for a very reality is undeniable. different era,” he suggests. Around the time of the last Brecon and Radnor It is important not to exaggerate, of course. There are byelection, the lateand life-enhancing Welsh historian many bridges to be crossed before Wales becomes as Gwyn Alf Williams wrote about the continuing potency much of a threat to the union as Northern Ireland and of the legend of Owain Glyndŵr. “Since 1410 most Scotland now are. There are radical ways of heading off Welsh people most of the time have abandoned any sort the disintegration of the United Kingdom, including the of independence as unthinkable,” wrote Williams. “But federalist new Act of Union proposed by Lord Lisvane since 1410 most Welsh people, at some time or another, and extolled by one of the prime minister’s former if only in some secret corner of the mind, have been ‘out colleagues in the Daily Telegraph this week. But Brexit with Owain and his barefoot scrubs’. For the Welsh has put the possibility of breakup squarely on the table, mind is still haunted by its lightning-flash vision of a even in Wales. people that was free.” Outright support for independence in Wales languishes Boris Johnson would be wise to remember that thought. in single figures. But more than one in three Welsh If he does not, he may even turn out to have done more voters now feel some support for the idea, and the for Welsh independence than almost anyone since proportion of those whom nationalists dub the Glyndŵr himself. “indycurious” is clearly rising. Use of the Welsh • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist language is growing and becoming more fashionable.

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WASHINGTON POST 31 JULY 2019 Northern Ireland’s politicians don’t agree on much. Except that Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit would be a disaster.

By Amanda Ferguson and William Booth E.U. without a deal, without a trade pact or a transition period, was folly, or worse. July 31 “We are in a crisis, and Brexit is adding to the chaos,” BELFAST — Prime Minister Boris Johnson completed said Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party. his awkward, somewhat hostile tour of the four nations in the United Kingdom on Wednesday with a visit to Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Fein president, said Northern Ireland. Johnson’s plan for a no-deal Brexit has increased the likelihood that the United Kingdom will splinter — by He wasn’t booed, as he was by Welsh farmers and boosting the case for Irish reunification. Scottish nationalists — because he was far away from demonstrators. Speaking to the BBC on Wednesday morning, McDonald said: “Traditionally, the argument and the But his greeting was far from sunny. Johnson faces a discourse has been between green and orange, between real challenge keeping a restive four-nation kingdom Irishness and Britishness. But Brexit changed that and allied as it hurtles toward a cliff-edge departure from added a new dimension, a critical dimension, which is: Europe. He may rise or fall over how he handles European or not? Inside the European Union or not?” questions about borders, the union and sovereignty. Northern Ireland is slated to leave the E.U. along with As Johnson begins his premiership, vowing to leave the the rest of the United Kingdom. The Republic of Ireland European Union, “do or die,” by the end of October, he to the south will remain a member of the E.U. One of the is being greeted with blunt talk about what leaving most vexing challenges of Brexit is what to do about the without a withdrawal deal would entail. border between the two. Under what terms will milk, He is also learning that his gung-ho Brexit-at-any-cost machine parts, beer, financial services, bacon and people — which appealed to the elderly, white, male, well-to-do move across? Conservative Party members who picked him as their leader — doesn’t translate as well outside England’s borders. Johnson met Wednesday with the five fractious parties of Northern Ireland — a place so split that its gridlocked assembly has not convened since January 2017.

Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald joins a Brexit protest after her meeting with Johnson at Stormont on July 31, 2019. (Charles McQuillan/Getty Images) Johnson has said he will not meet with European leaders until they agree to strike the Irish border “backstop,” or guarantee, from the withdrawal agreement they negotiated with his predecessor, Theresa May. New Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith, left, and new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrive at Stormont House in Belfast on The backstop seeks to ensure an open border by July 31, 2019. (Pool/ AFP/Getty Images) essentially tying Britain to E.U. rules and regulations in The party leaders were largely united on one thing: They the case the two sides cannot agree to a trade deal that warned Johnson that his threat to take Britain out of the makes such a guarantee unnecessary. 3

After her meeting with Johnson, Sinn Fein’s McDonald The stalemate sits squarely on the shoulders of Irish said that if there was a hard Brexit, she would push for a politicians, but Johnson’s predecessor did little to vote for Northern Ireland to leave the United Kingdom. alleviate it. Nichola Mallon, a leader of the Social Democratic and “It’s great to be here in Northern Ireland, and clearly the Labour Party, said she had a “very blunt meeting” with people of Northern Ireland have been without a Johnson and observed that he did not have a full grasp of government, without [the Northern Ireland Assembly], the “complexities” of Northern Ireland. for two years and six months, so my prime focus this morning is to do everything I can to help that get up and She said she told Johnson that he “must avoid a hard running again,” Johnson told reporters, adding that he Brexit at all costs.” expected Brexit also to come up in talks. Mallon said she reminded the prime minister that he had Downing Street confirmed that he had planned no responsibilities under the Good Friday Agreement, individual media interviews and would take no reporter which ended 30 years of sectarian violence, and that he questions during his visit, though a Sky correspondent “must live up to them.” cut in with a question about his dinner with the DUP. Mallon said, “We pressed him time and time again and As Johnson traveled north, Ireland’s central bank just got stock responses.” released new estimates, forecasting that a “disorderly On the other hand, Arlene Foster, the leader of Northern Brexit” would cost the republic 34,000 jobs and reduce Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, said she and annual economic growth from 4.1 percent to 0.7 percent Johnson had a good talk. in 2020. Foster’s DUP has propped up the minority Conservative Damien McGenity, a leader of Northern Ireland’s Border government in Westminster with a coalition partnership Communities Against Brexit, stood outside the stalled for the past three years. In exchange, the government parliament in Belfast to warn that a no-deal Brexit would under May and now Johnson is showering $1.5 billion be a job killer. on Northern Ireland. “This no-deal nonsense that the new prime minister is Foster said Johnson promised to be “neutral on the coming out with is just crazy,” he said. administration of Northern Ireland but will never be “I cross the border seven or eight times a day. My wife neutral on the union.” She said an Irish referendum on works in the south. Her family lives on the other side of unification would not receive Johnson’s endorsement. the border. It’s just us going about our daily life. And no Johnson did not make any public appearances during his matter what anyone says, there will have to be checks on four-hour visit to Belfast. the border if there is no deal. This is E.U. rules.” In a short statement to reporters on his arrival at He said, “It's going to have a massive effect on our Stormont House, the site of Britain’s Northern Ireland lives.” Office, he vowed to help the parties of Northern Ireland Booth reported from London. restart their stalled parliament.

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NEW YORK TIMES 2 AUGUST 2019 Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat, Heightening Chances of an Election

Parliament has thrice rejected the Brexit deal pushed by Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, and most lawmakers oppose a no-deal Brexit. With European officials resolute that the withdrawal agreement cannot be reopened, Mr. Johnson is preparing for a showdown over his plans. Even with the support of 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland, a working majority of just one seat leaves the new prime minister especially vulnerable.

Boris Johnson has long been the cheerleader for pro-Brexit forces, and since becoming the British prime minister he has doubled down on his vow to leave the European Union.CreditCreditPool photo by Geoff Pugh By Stephen Castle Aug. 2, 2019 LONDON — Boris Johnson has been British prime minister for barely a week, and the honeymoon appears to be over. His Conservative Party lost a special election, Jane Dodds, center, won the special election in Wales with the help cutting his working majority in Parliament to just one of an experimental “remain alliance.”CreditMatthew Horwood/Getty seat at a critical moment for the country. Images The defeat in Wales has also illustrated how Brexit is re- The narrow defeat in a previously Conservative-held engineering British politics, cutting across traditional district, the Brecon and Radnorshire area of Wales, was party lines with unpredictable consequences as voters a brutal reminder of Mr. Johnson’s weakness in focus on the tortured Brexit efforts. Parliament. Advertisement It immediately fueled speculation that Mr. Johnson would seek to increase his majority by holding a general Officials announced early Friday that Jane Dodds, the election sooner rather than later. The only question is candidate for the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, had whether it would be before or after Oct. 31, the deadline defeated the Conservative incumbent, Chris Davies, by for the country to leave the European Union. 1,425 votes. “The election campaign is effectively already Ms. Dodds was helped by an experimental “remain underway,” said Anand Menon, professor of European alliance”: Two small parties did not contest the seat so as politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London. not to divide the anti-Brexit vote. She won even though a majority of voters in the region had voted for Brexit in The results from Wales made clear that an election is the 2016 referendum. needed. But they also suggested that Mr. Johnson cannot be confident of victory should one take place in the fall. Mr. Johnson’s energy and upbeat, if blustery, rhetoric And that is his quandary. has cheered Conservative supporters and given his party a bounce in some opinion polls, one that was reflected in Mr. Johnson has long been the cheerleader for pro- the closer-than-expected result in Brecon and Brexit forces, and since becoming prime minister he has Radnorshire. doubled down on his vow to leave the European Union on schedule, with or without a deal governing future relations with the bloc. 5

Normally, the Conservatives would expect to keep the It is unclear, however, whether lawmakers can find a seat, having won it comfortably in 2017 by about 8,000 legally watertight way to stop Britain from crashing out votes. of the European Union come Oct. 31. But the circumstances that prompted the election Holding an election after such an outcome could help complicated matters for the Conservatives. Their chosen Mr. Johnson scoop up Brexit Party supporters, having candidate, Mr. Davies, was unseated by a petition from delivered on their overriding objective. local voters after he was convicted of making a false Advertisement expenses claim. The party nonetheless chose him to fight for the seat. But it could entail the serious risk of fighting an election against the backdrop of chaos. But the results also showed mounting challenges for all of the big traditional mainstream parties. The main British consumers’ reactions to possible shortages of opposition Labour Party, which is equivocal on Brexit, food and pharmaceuticals is impossible to predict, as are was pushed into an embarrassing fourth place, its vote the wider economic, political and constitutional share squeezed by the anti-. ramifications of a sudden rupture. Nigel Farage’s populist Brexit Party placed third with “Holding an election after ‘no deal’ risks exaggerating around 10 percent of the vote, enough to suggest it the ability and willingness of the British people to keep remains a problem for Mr. Johnson despite his efforts to calm and carry on,” said Mr. Menon, the political neutralize it by stuffing his new cabinet with hard-liners. professor. During a tour of the United Kingdom this week, Mr. “We don’t react well to a crisis,” he added, pointing to Johnson also doubled down on his red lines for the response to a gasoline shortage in 2000 and to the negotiations with Brussels, stoking anger in Scotland shock of Britain’s forced exit in 1992 from an exchange and Northern Ireland, which voted to remain, and rate system linking European currencies. rattling investors who sold the pound. When Britain held a general election during a crisis in If he sticks to his word, striking a deal would require 1974, the prime minister lost. Voters might have become either him, or the European Union, to reverse course. less tolerant of disruption since then: Last year, when the KFC chain ran out of chicken, some angry customers

contacted the police. Mr. Johnson could face the voters before Brexit is completed, demanding a mandate from them to press ahead, while blaming Parliament and the European Union for obstructing him. “I think in his ideal world he would like to have definitive proof that Parliament is trying to stymie Brexit,” Mr. Menon said, “and that the European Union is blocking him and that he has no alternative.”

A pro-Europe demonstration in London. Brexit is re-engineering In terms of election timing, Mr. Menon said, “October is British politics, cutting across traditional party lines with looking increasingly likely.” unpredictable consequences as voters focus on the tortured Brexit efforts.CreditTolga Akmen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 3, 2019, Section A, Page 9 of the New York edition with the Failing that, Mr. Johnson’s determination to leave the headline: Johnson Edge In Parliament Is Quickly Cut To bloc anyway would face a rebellion in Parliament, where Single Seat. a majority of lawmakers oppose a potentially chaotic “no deal” Brexit.

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WASHINGTON POST 2 AUGUST 2019 In a flash, Boris Johnson’s working majority in Britain’s Parliament is now just one seat

Biking to work is just the start: Boris Johnson's unconventional ways Former London mayor and now new British prime minister, Boris Johnson is seen as a nontraditional politician. Here’s why. (Allie Caren/The Washington Post) At the same time, he has made some lawmakers nervous with his insistence that Britain be prepared to leave the E.U. without a deal to manage the withdrawal, if the Europeans haven’t helped secure a new and better deal by the end of October. Economists have warned that a no-deal Brexit could British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at a farm outside Newport, South Wales, on July 30. (Adrian Dennis/AP) disrupt trade and cause pain on both sides of the English Channel. By William Booth On Friday, a wavering Conservative lawmaker, Philip August 2 at 12:50 PM Lee, said he was considering joining the Liberal LONDON — It was just a one-off race out in a small Democrats. “I’m really not comfortable about my party district in Wales, where sheep outnumber voters, an off- pushing for no-deal Brexit without proper consent of the year by-election to replace a Conservative Party public,” Lee told the On the House podcast. lawmaker who was sacked by petition for cheating on In February, three Conservative members of Parliament his expense account. Normally, it would be back-page quit the party over Brexit to form a new independent news. group in the House of Commons. But the Conservative Party candidate lost Thursday There have also been five by-election contests since the night — and a member of the anti-Brexit Liberal 2017 general elections — two lawmakers faced recall Democrat party won — and suddenly Prime petitions, two resigned from office and one died. Minister Boris Johnson’s working majority in Parliament has been reduced to a single seat. If Johnson’s pledge to get Britain out by October is threatened, many assume he might call a snap election to The government Johnson inherited from his ousted seek a greater majority in Parliament — but this result predecessor, Theresa May, was already dependent on the makes it unclear how he and his party would fare. support of 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to get its wafer-thin [Who is Boris Johnson? See photos of him through the majority. years.] Now, the Conservatives are just one defection, In the Brecon district by-election in Wales on Thursday, resignation, scandal or death away from potentially Conservative Chris Davies tried to hold on to his seat, losing that majority altogether. And Johnson will need but was beaten by Liberal Democrat candidate Jane every vote his whips can wrangle to pass his “do or die” Dodds. Brexit through a fractured House of Commons. What makes this doubly interesting is that the Liberal Remember May’s Brexit deal? It was defeated three Democrats have emerged as the most potent voice in times in Parliament. Some Conservatives thought her British politics for stopping Brexit and have increased deal was too weak. Others don’t especially want to leave their clout by forging a “Remain Alliance.” the European Union. In the election in Wales, the Liberal Democrats teamed In a flash, the math has gotten worse for Johnson. up with other anti-Brexit parties, including the Greens 7 and Wales’s Plaid Cymru, which both agreed not to put congratulations to the Liberal Democrats, asserting that forward candidates, to increase the Liberal Democrat “the party goes from strength to strength & it really candidate’s chances. could change everything.” “Boris Johnson’s shrinking majority makes it clear that The Liberal Democrats took 13,826 votes and the he has no mandate to crash us out of the E.U.,” the Conservative Party garnered 12,401, a margin of 1,425 Liberal Democrats’ new leader, Jo Swinson, said Friday. that overturned the Tories’ previous majority of more She added that she envisioned the Remain Alliance than 8,000. growing to fight Johnson’s Brexit plans. The voting district backed leave in the 2016 Brexit “The country doesn’t have to settle for Boris Johnson or referendum. Jeremy Corbyn,” she told BBC Radio, referring to the Johnson was jeered this week as he visited Wales. The opposition Labour Party leader, who can’t seem to make new prime minister met with chicken farmers and up his mind on whether Labour supports leaving or sheepherders who are worried that if Britain crashes out remaining in the E.U. of Europe without new customs and trade arrangements, [Boris Johnson’s first full week as prime minister: their roasters and lamb chops could immediately face Chickens, boos and a worrying loss] high tariffs in Europe that would make their meats far less competitive. Dodd, the winner in Wales, said the Liberal Democrats “are the party that want to stay as part of the United “October, November and December are peak times to Kingdom. We want to stay in Europe. We see that as sell Welsh lamb,” Dodds said Friday. “There are two healthy for our communities. We have to stay in Europe, issues for farmers — firstly, how are they going to cope and we have to stay in this bigger team.” with 40 percent tariffs on their lamb exports. The second is mental health. Farming is the profession with the Guy Verhofstadt, a Belgian politician and a leader for highest suicide rate. These are real concerns.” the European Parliament’s Brexit talks, tweeted his

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Guardian 15 Sep 2019

EU officials reject Boris Johnson claim of “manacles” on 31 October – has further fuelled EU 'huge progress' in Brexit talks scepticism about his sincerity. Describing the language as “not very surprising”, the EU PM’s upbeat account dismissed as Jean-Claude Juncker source said: “It all makes it look like it’s a bit of a joke. warns time is running out We are talking about something extremely serious. The Jennifer Rankin and Daniel Boffey consequences of no deal will be extremely serious and it looks like this is being treated as a game in which you Sun 15 Sep 2019 09.23 EDT are the hero sort of story rather than [dealing] with real EU officials have rejected Boris Johnson’s claim that “a lives.” huge amount of progress” is being made in Brexit talks, Juncker said a no-deal Brexit would be a mess and take as Jean-Claude Juncker warned that time is running out. years to resolve. Speaking to Deutschlandfunk, he said Juncker, who will stand down as European commission patriots in the UK “would not wish your country such a president on 31 October, is expected to ask Johnson to fate”. spell out his ideas for replacing the Irish backstop when He said the EU knew what the British did not want, but the pair meet over lunch in Luxembourg on Monday. were still waiting for alternative backstop proposals: “I Johnson told the Mail on Sunday there were “real signs hope we can get them, but time is running out.” of movement” in Berlin, Paris and Dublin on getting rid EU officials hope the meeting will create momentum of the backstop, the persistent stumbling block to a towards an agreement. The outgoing commission Brexit agreement. “A huge amount of progress is being president is not involved in day-to-day Brexit talks, but made,” he said. has intervened at crisis points. In March, for example, But EU officials involved in talks with Johnson’s envoy, he tried to help Theresa May sell the deal to David Frost, have dismissed his upbeat account. Conservative backbenchers, with pledges that the EU “No, in fact people are a bit dismayed,” said one EU did not want to trap the UK in the backstop. source, describing the mood after the latest talks. “I am The backstop, a fallback plan for avoiding a hard border not even going to call them negotiations – the last on the island of Ireland, continues to keep both sides at session on Friday did start touching on content – that’s loggerheads. Johnson is adamant the backstop must go, actually quite a step forward … but we still should have while the EU insists any exit agreement must contain been there a long time ago and [an end result] is still the backstop or a legally watertight equivalent. quite far away.” In Friday’s talks, Frost outlined ideas for an all-Ireland The lunch meeting with Juncker comes 26 days after regulatory regime for food and agriculture, which Johnson met Angela Merkel in Berlin and declared he Downing Street thinks would go a long way to replacing had 30 days to persuade the EU there was a viable the backstop. alternative to the backstop. Brussels thinks these ideas fall far short of what is That meeting in Berlin, followed by others with EU required to protect European markets from dangerous leaders in Paris and Biarritz, raised hopes that the prime goods, fraud or unfair competition. EU officials say food minister was serious about a deal. But optimism in safety, animal, plant and health measures cannot be Brussels rapidly dissipated, after Johnson prorogued separated from customs, because otherwise no one parliament and stepped up his no-deal rhetoric, while would know what is entering European markets. failing to put any proposals on paper. Officials say the UK has put forward unfinished ideas on A spate of recent reports from London analysts that a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, which leave deal was becoming more likely were dismissed as many questions unanswered, such as definitions of SPS “completely wrong” by one senior EU official. goods and the scope of SPS regulations. Johnson’s latest rhetorical fancy – that, like the “As the UK starts exploring the question and starts to Incredible Hulk, the UK would break out of its put ideas forward, they are starting to realise how complex SPS is,” the source said. 1

Guardian 15 Sep 2019

However, officials see some positive steps: they think is also uncertain whether Johnson can get a Commons the UK has agreed to “dynamic alignment” on food and majority for a deal. agriculture, meaning Northern Ireland would The Johnson government has a “credibility problem” automatically accept updates to the EU rulebook in over whether it could get a revised agreement passed in these areas. the Commons, one EU diplomat said. “What kind of With time running short to resolve highly technical mandate does Mr Johnson have? Since he doesn’t have issues that touch on sensitive political questions, the EU a majority and no party is really clear on [Brexit] then it would certainly be good to engage the opposition.” ------Q&A: What is a Northern Ireland-only backstop? The British government’s version of Brexit involves the UK ultimately leaving the single market and customs union, requiring the return of a range of checks on goods crossing the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The “backstop” is intended as a standstill placeholder to ensure such checks do not have to be imposed between Brexit happening with a deal, and the start of a new free trade agreement yet to be negotiated between the UK and the EU. Theresa May's withdrawal agreement proposed keeping the whole of the UK in a shared customs territory with the EU during this period. An alternative idea involves only Northern Ireland staying in the EU’s customs territory. That would place a customs border in the Irish Sea. May described it as a threat to the constitutional integrity of the UK, but the new prime minister, Boris Johnson, has opened the current talks by proposing an all-Ireland agri-food zone. The suggestion is that he will seek to quietly build on that with further NI-only arrangements. Given an NI-only backstop was an EU proposal in the first place, the U-turn would be warmly welcomed in Brussels, although attempts to give the Northern Ireland assembly a veto on its continuation would not be acceptable, and the DUP would be unlikely to support the prime minister in such a move in parliament. If there is a no-deal Brexit, then there is no backstop.

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Reuters – 16 and 18 Sep 2019 Johnson Says He Will Obey the Law but Still Take Do Not Underestimate No-Deal Brexit, EU's UK Out of EU on October 31 Barnier Warns

By Reuters By Reuters

Sept. 16, 2019 Sept. 18, 2019

LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday STRASBOURG — The European Union's chief Brexit said he would obey the law but would still take Britain negotiator warned on Wednesday not to underestimate out of the European Union at the end of October with the consequences of any no-deal Brexit and said issues or without a deal. raised by Britain's exit from the EU would still need addressing before a future relationship could be agreed. A law passed by Britain's parliament this month requires Johnson to ask the EU for a three-month delay to Brexit "I advise everyone not to underestimate the if a deal is not approved by Oct. 19, though British consequences, clearly for the United Kingdom first of all media reports have said that his team are looking at but also for us, of the absence of a deal," the European ways to circumvent it. Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Wednesday. Asked during an interview with the BBC how he would get round the law, Johnson said: "I will uphold the Barnier told lawmakers in European Parliament that a constitution, I will obey the law, but we will come out divorce deal, dealing with citizens rights and the Irish on October 31. border, was a precursor to an agreement on a future economic relationship between Britain and the EU. "It's vital that people understand that the UK will not extend ... what we're going to do is come out on "If the United Kingdom leaves without a deal, I want to October 31st, deal or no deal." remind you that all these questions will not just disappear... Some three years after the Brexit The prime minister gave no indication how he would referendum we should not be pretending to negotiate." avoid asking for an extension if there was no deal.

Johnson had earlier pulled out of a press conference with Luxembourg's prime minister, Xavier Bettel, after a noisy crowd of anti-Brexit protestors gathered nearby.

Asked by the BBC whether Britain was a stable country or in chaos, Johnson said it was "extremely stable".

"It's just nonsensical to think that democracy in the UK is any way endangered or the UK economy is in any way endangered," he said.

"We're going through a period of constitutional adjustment caused by the decision of the people to leave the EU. That was always going to be logistically and practically difficult ... but we're going to do it and we're going it by October 31st."

Guardian – 17 Sep 2019

Brexit weekly briefing: plot twists galore – Despite EU officials repeatedly insisting they had seen but no progress no concrete British proposals whatsoever on alternatives to the backstop, the foreign secretary, PM said ‘huge progress’ was being made but the EU said Domic Raab, said the bloc had heard enough and was there were no grounds for re-opening talks indulging in “political posturing”. Jon Henley Johnson told Juncker the UK would not ask for a further Brexit extension and would not accept one if the EU Tue 17 Sep 2019 06.35 EDT offered it – nor would it request any extension to the Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing. If EU transition period beyond December 2020 if he got a you’d like to receive this as a weekly email, sign up Brexit deal. here. You can also catch our latest Brexit Means … Unfortunately, the PM was then humiliated by his podcast here, and for daily updates, head to Andrew Luxembourg counterpart, Xavier Bettel, who went Sparrow’s politics live blog. ahead with a planned joint press conference that Top stories Johnson dodged because of protesters – and savaged Plot twists galore, but – not for the first time – nothing Johnson’s Brexit approach. you might describe as actual progress. A Scottish appeal All eyes, meanwhile, are on 11 supreme court judges court ruled that Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue who this week will hear the politically charged claim parliament was unlawful – but did not order MPs to that the PM acted unlawfully in advising the Queen to return. suspend parliament for five weeks in order to stifle The government was forced to release its secret debate over the Brexit crisis. “planning assumptions” for a Some people worry that if the government wins, no-deal Brexit, which warned of rising food and fuel Johnson may even decide to suspend parliament for a prices, disruption to medicine supplies and public second time when it returns on 14 October. disorder on Britain’s streets. What next Johnson continued to insist “huge progress” was being Who knows? But four main scenarios seem to present made – although No 10 played down hopes of a themselves: breakthrough involving an all-Ireland regulatory regime for food and agriculture which it thinks could help Unlikely as it may seem, Johnson could still get a deal, replace the backstop, and Michel Barnier said there probably based around a border in the Irish sea. He were “no grounds” for formally re-opening talks. would find getting it through parliament very hard, but perhaps not impossible, helped maybe by Labour MPs Increasingly alarmed at the possibility that the PM in leave-voting constituencies. might try to break the law by forcing a no deal, however, a cross-party group of MPs looked at bringing He could decide to break his promise, request an back a version of Theresa May’s deal, plus a vote on a extension and then immediately demand an election, second referendum, in late October. counting on a fiercely anti-EU, people-versus- parliament campaign to see him through. And the outgoing Speaker of the Commons, John Bercow, warned that he was prepared to rip up the He could, theoretically at least, go for no deal on 31 parliamentary rulebook to stop any illegal attempt by October, testing or even ignoring the law. Early the prime minister to take the UK out of the EU without elections would follow, with the PM trusting that with a deal on 31 October. Brexit delivered, the Brexit party would be no more – and that no deal would not be too catastrophic. Johnson did, at least, meet the outgoing president of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. It did Or he could resign or be pushed out. Rather than the not go well. Before heading to Luxembourg, the PM divisive Jeremy Corbyn, a more neutral figure (Ken compared himself to the Incredible Hulk, throwing off Clarke?) might then head up a temporary government the shackles of the EU. whose sole purpose would be to ask the EU for an extension, with elections to follow. 1

Guardian – 17 Sep 2019

Best of the rest • EU citizens feel safer in Scotland than in England, report says. • David Cameron: Johnson said leave campaign would lose minutes before backing it. • Brexit uncertainty triggers first September fall in house prices since 2010. • Britain is facing its most prolonged investment slump in 17 years. • Only half of UK universities are ready for a no-deal Brexit – study. • Labour members to push for anti-Brexit stance at conference. • Five things we learned from David Cameron’s memoir. • Nicky Morgan says she would vote to remain in the EU in a second referendum. • Hopes of a clean break with the EU are nonsense, says ex-Brexit official. • Criminal gangs will cash in on no-deal Brexit, police warn. • MPs condemn ‘misleading’ no-deal Brexit publicity campaign. • Anti-Brexiters file new legal challenge to force article 50 extension. • Retailers: fruit, vegetables and wine will be scarce and costly under no-deal Brexit. • Boris Johnson says it is ‘absolutely’ not true he misled Queen over prorogation. • Lib Dems pledge to revoke Brexit without referendum.

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AP and Reuters 18 Sep 2019

UK Govt Insists Suspension of Parliament Was Not The government's opponents argue that Johnson Illegal illegally shut down Parliament just weeks before the country is due to leave the 28-nation bloc for the By The Associated Press "improper purpose" of dodging lawmakers' scrutiny of his Brexit plans. They also accuse Johnson of misleading Sept. 18, 2019 Queen Elizabeth II, whose formal approval was needed to suspend the legislature. LONDON — The British government was back at the country's Supreme Court on Wednesday, arguing that Aidan O'Neill, lawyer for a group of lawmakers Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend challenging the government, said the suspension had Parliament for five weeks just before the country is set "the intent and effect of preventing Parliament, to leave the European Union was neither improper nor impeding Parliament, from holding the government illegal. politically to account at a time when the government is taking decisions which will have constitutional and But the justices pushed back on the second day of the irreversible impacts on our country." historic legal showdown, which pits the powers of Britain's legislature against those of its executive as the Eadie denied the prime minister was trying to prevent country's scheduled Brexit date of Oct. 31 looms over lawmakers from blocking his Brexit plans. its political landscape and its economy. They asked why the prime minister had refused to provide a sworn He said "Parliament has had, and has taken, the statement to the court about his reasons for the opportunity to legislate" against the government, and suspension. would have more time between Oct. 14 and Brexit day.

"Isn't it odd that nobody has signed a witness statement The prime minister says Britain must leave the EU on to say: 'This is true. These are the true reasons for what Oct. 31 with or without a divorce deal. But many was done'?" said one of the judges, Nicholas Wilson. economists and lawmakers believe a no-deal Brexit would be economically devastating and socially The government's lawyer, James Eadie, conceded that destabilizing. Members of Parliament have put Johnson and his top officials had not made legally obstacles in Johnson's way, including a law compelling binding statements, but said other documents, the government to seek a delay to Brexit if it can't get a including Cabinet minutes, had been submitted to the divorce deal with the EU. court. Parliament's suspension spared Johnson further Johnson sent lawmakers home on Sept. 9 until Oct. 14, meddling by the House of Commons but sparked legal which is barely two weeks before Britain's Oct. 31 challenges, to which lower courts gave contradictory departure from the EU. He claims the shutdown was a rulings. England's High Court said the move was a routine measure to enable his Conservative government political rather than legal matter but Scottish court to launch a fresh legislative agenda and was not related judges ruled Johnson acted illegally "to avoid to Brexit. democratic scrutiny."

Eadie argued that the decision to shut down Parliament The Supreme Court is being asked to decide who was was "inherently and fundamentally political in nature." right. The justices will give their judgment sometime after the hearing ends on Thursday. He said if the court intervened it would violate the "fundamental constitutional principle" of the separation A ruling against the government by the 11 Supreme of powers between courts and the government. Court judges could force Johnson to recall Parliament.

"This is, we submit, the territory of political judgment, European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker, not legal standards," Eadie said. meanwhile, said Wednesday that the risk of Britain 1

AP and Reuters 18 Sep 2019 leaving the EU without a divorce deal remained "very The EU parliament on Wednesday adopted a non- real" because Britain had not produced workable binding resolution supporting another extension to the alternatives to the deal agreed upon with the EU by ex- Brexit deadline if Britain requests it. British Prime Minister Theresa May. That deal was repeatedly rejected by Britain's Parliament, prompting Any further delay to Britain's exit — which has already May to resign and bringing Johnson to power in July. been postponed twice — needs the approval of the 27 other EU nations. "I asked the British prime minister to specify the alternative arrangements that he could envisage," Johnson has said he won't delay Brexit under any Juncker told the European Parliament. "As long as such circumstances — but also says he will respect the law, proposals are not made, I cannot tell you — while which orders the government to seek an extension if looking you straight in the eye — that progress is being there is no deal by Oct. 19. He has not explained how made." that would be done.

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Juncker, who met with Johnson on Monday, told Samuel Petrequin in Brussels, and Gregory Katz in members of the EU legislature in Strasbourg, France, London, contributed to this story. that a no-deal Brexit "might be the choice of the U.K., but it will never be ours."

UK Could Challenge Brexit Delay Act in Court-Lawyer Says He Has Heard

By Reuters

Sept. 18, 2019

LONDON — The British government could go to court to challenge an act brought by opposition lawmakers that forces it to ask for an extension to Brexit if it has not agreed a deal, a lawyer who has led an alternative challenge said.

Jo Maugham, who successfully led a separate challenge to a Scottish court arguing that Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament before Brexit, said he had heard chatter that the government wanted to go to the Supreme Court.

"Chatter from sources - and on bulletin boards - that Government wants to reserve SC time for a challenge to the Benn Act," he said, referring to the act brought by Labour lawmaker Hilary Benn. "I mention this because there is no challenge, otherwise than in EU law, to an Act."

(Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

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NYT 18 Sep 2019

Mr. Grant said he believed it would be dangerous for the Supreme Court to side with the English court, which Britain’s Supreme Court Is Thrust Into Center of Brexit ruled that Mr. Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament Debate was not a matter for the courts to judge. The By Mark Landler suspension, he argued, clearly deprived the House of Sept. 18, 2019 Commons of its responsibility to scrutinize the government’s policy on Brexit, an issue of critical LONDON — The impassioned speeches and howls of national importance. dissent from the backbenches, the midnight votes and archaic rituals of Parliament gave way this week to a But other legal experts worry that upholding the quieter drama in Britain, as the anguished debate over Scottish ruling would set a troubling precedent. It would Brexit shifted from the House of Commons to the open the door, they say, to a form of judicial review country’s Supreme Court. that is widely accepted in the United States, which has a codified constitution and a Supreme Court that actively At the courthouse, across a leafy square from the interprets it. Houses of Parliament, the scene was, by comparison, mind-numbingly dull: lawyers walking a panel of 11 Britain, by contrast, relies on an unwritten set of justices through thousands of pages of technical legal traditions and conventions that have treated a arguments, apologizing profusely when the judges got sovereign Parliament as the supreme law of the land. lost in the mountain of paper. Once the courts venture into the political sphere and begin passing judgment on Parliament’s actions, legal But the stakes are every bit as high, both for Prime analysts say, there is no going back. Minister Boris Johnson and for the role of the courts in Britain’s parliamentary democracy. “If the court accepts the invitation to devise a legal rule, there will be no logical limit to the extent that the court At issue is whether Mr. Johnson broke the law in might want to replace conventional rules with legal suspending Parliament earlier this month. A Scottish rules,” said Sir Jonathan Sumption, a former justice of high court ruled that he did; an English court ruled that the Supreme Court, who is a leading commentator on he did not; and Britain’s highest court is hearing appeals the court’s role in society. of both cases. It is expected to rule sometime after three days of oral arguments end on Thursday. “I question the need for a judicial intervention,” Sir Jonathan said, “but I think it may happen because If the court upholds the Scottish ruling, it would be a people are shocked by what the government has done.” stinging rebuke of Mr. Johnson, endorsing that court’s Mr. Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament, he said, argument that he disbanded Parliament to stymie a was the equivalent of “taking an ax to the political debate over his plans to leave the European Union, with convention.” or without a deal, by Oct. 31. He could also be found guilty of misleading the queen, who authorized the Both sides of this case have unfolded in hours of legal suspension, or “proroguing,” of Parliament, at his arguments, which are being livestreamed by the BBC request. and other British news organizations (cameras in the courtroom are another difference between Britain’s For the nation’s highest court, however, the Supreme Court and its American counterpart). Among implications of such a ruling would be even more far- those submitting arguments to the justices was a reaching. It would inject the court into the kind of former prime minister, John Major, who has fiercely contentious political debate it has historically avoided criticized Mr. Johnson’s actions. and push the boundaries of its purview to settle disputes in Britain’s political system. The case has commanded the headlines in Britain. But the televised images of justices staring into computer “We’re in uncharted territory,” said James Grant, a screens — often interrupting the lawyers to figure out senior lecturer in law at Kings College London. what page they needed to scroll down to — are worlds “Whether the court decides to intervene or not, its away from the spectacle in Parliament the previous decision will break new ground and will be politically week. It has served mainly to underscore the controversial. There is no escaping that.” 1

NYT 18 Sep 2019 differences between the court and other British possibility that he will defy Parliament’s law barring him institutions. from exiting without an agreement with Brussels. For one, it was founded only in 2009, after a Britain is not alone in seeing more activist courts as a constitutional reform process initiated by Prime response to political dysfunction. “We’re in an era, in Minister Tony Blair, though its roots date back far many parts of the world, where we see a lot of political longer, through its predecessor body, the Appellate questions being tossed to the courts,” said Tom Committee of the House of Lords. Ginsburg, a professor of law and political science at the University of Chicago. Still, the court has none of the antiquarian traditions of Parliament or even other British courts. Barristers do While Mr. Ginsburg said Parliament’s suspension raised not wear powdered wigs. The justices are seated behind thorny questions of parliamentary sovereignty, he said a polished, modern semicircular table, not on a raised he would be surprised if the court upheld the Scottish dais. Except for ceremonial occasions like the opening ruling. The judges, he predicted, would view such a of Parliament or the swearing-in of a new justice, they ruling as opening the door to a regular judicial review of do not wear robes, but regular business attire. government policies. The chief justice, known as the president, is Baroness “Once you have a court that is designated with this Brenda Hale, who served as a Lord of Appeal in the power,” he said, “there is a natural tendency toward House of Lords. She is one of three women now on the the judicialization of politics. Once you have the court in court. Justices are required to retire by the age of 75. this position, and the U.K. isn’t there yet, is there a moral hazard?” The queen appoints justices, on the recommendation of the prime minister. Until now, that process has stirred none of the furor that accompanies Supreme Court appointments in the United States. But some worry that could change if the court takes a more activist role in the ruling on cases. After the Scottish ruling, one of the ministers in Mr. Johnson’s government, Kwasi Kwarteng, said it raised questions about whether the judges were politically motivated — a suggestion that drew widespread criticism in a country that prizes the independence of the judiciary. Lawyers for the government warned the court that it would be “constitutionally inappropriate” to intervene in this case. But the Supreme Court has thrust itself into the Brexit debate once before. In January 2017, in a case brought by a Guyanese-British businesswoman and activist, Gina Miller, it ruled that Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, needed to obtain the approval of Parliament before Britain triggered the formal procedure for withdrawing from the European Union (Ms. Miller is a plaintiff in one of the current cases). Legal analysts said Brexit had so badly fractured the political debate in Britain that the court may conclude it has little choice but to become more involved in settling disputes, especially given Mr. Johnson’s aggressive tactics. The prime minister has even left open the 2

Reuters 18 Sep 2019

Explainer: What Is the British Opposition Labour Labour says it would campaign in any election on a Party's Position on Brexit? promise to hold a second referendum on leaving the EU. By Reuters The party says this referendum should be a choice Sept. 18, 2019 between a credible offer to leave the EU and a choice to LONDON — Britain's opposition Labour Party wants to remain in the bloc. do everything it can to stop Prime Minister Boris STEP FOUR: Win an election Johnson taking the country out of the European Union without a deal next month, and will also reject any new Most recent opinion polls put Labour behind the deal he is able to strike with Brussels. Conservatives, but the gap varies widely. In the three most recent surveys, Labour trails by 12, 9, and 1 Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn instead wants to win an percentage points. election and then hold a second referendum, offering a choice between remaining in the EU and a new Labour- STEP FIVE: Negotiate a new Brexit deal negotiated exit deal. Labour says it would negotiate a different exit So, how would their alternative plan work? arrangement with the EU, based around a new customs union, a close single market relationship, which it has STEP ONE: Delay Brexit to avoid leaving without a deal yet to define, and guarantees of workers’ rights and Labour argues that leaving the EU without a deal would environmental protections. cause economic disruption and job losses. STEP SIX: Hold a referendum To prevent this, the party helped pass a law which Labour would put this new deal to a public vote, requires Johnson to ask the EU to delay Brexit until Jan. alongside the choice to remain in the EU. 31, 2020. The law applies if Johnson is unable to agree an exit deal that is then approved by parliament, or he The party has not said which option it would campaign fails to get parliament's permission to leave without a for. deal. Some members of the party, including senior members However, Labour remains concerned that Johnson could of Corbyn's team, have indicated they would campaign simply ignore this law or find a loophole to try to force a to remain. no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31. The government says it will Corbyn said in an newspaper article on Wednesday: "I stick to the law, but "test to the limit" what is required will pledge to carry out whatever the people decide, as by it. a Labour prime minister." STEP TWO: Call an election (Reporting by William James; Editing by Giles Elgood) Labour argues that an early general election is necessary to defeat Johnson's Conservative Party and allow Labour to pursue its own exit strategy. But, the party says an election should only be held once the risk of no deal has been eliminated, and twice rejected Johnson's attempts to call an election earlier this month. Labour would back an election if he requests a delay to Brexit. STEP THREE: Promise a new Brexit referendum

NYT 20 Sep 2019

Boris Johnson Is in Trouble With Brexit. That is remarkable given accusations that Mr. Johnson Many Voters Don’t Mind. has undermined democracy by sending Parliament away for five weeks and split his own party by banishing By Stephen Castle 21 Tory lawmakers over Brexit, a move that compelled his own brother, Jo, to quit the government. Sept. 20, 2019 Even his trademark presentational skills have LONDON — By any standards it has been a miserable abandoned Mr. Johnson — for example during a start for Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, who bumbling speech to a group of police cadets (one of stands accused of subverting the country’s unwritten whom came close to fainting behind him), or when constitution and has yet to win a vote in Parliament. faced by voters who plainly dislike him. Lawmakers have twice rejected his call for an election, When confronted by the father of a sick child in a and have passed legislation that upended his strategy hospital on Wednesday, Mr. Johnson denied that the for exiting the European Union on Oct. 31 “do or die.” visit was a publicity stunt, insisting that there was no Yet his Conservative Party enjoys a healthy opinion-poll press anywhere nearby. Then his interlocutor pointed lead over the opposition Labour Party, his personal to a television crew, which had captured an awkward ratings well exceed those of Labour’s leader, Jeremy prime minister in the act of uttering an evident untruth. Corbyn, and they have increased several percentage But just as Mr. Trump appeals to core supporters, Mr. points since Mr. Johnson came to power two months Johnson’s tough stance on Brexit has won over voters ago. In light of that apparent paradox, some analysts determined to leave the bloc. Doubling down on that see his unorthodox style and communication skills as base helps him draw support from the Brexit Party that setting him on the road to electoral victory. won the European elections in Britain this year, just “I think what we are seeing is a bit like Donald Trump in weeks after the party had been created by the populist the U.S., where those who dislike Boris Johnson see campaigner, Nigel Farage. confirmation in what he does of how appalling he is, If that sounds like a move from Mr. Trump’s playbook, whereas those better disposed to him are willing to British voters were warned last year, by Mr. Johnson, discount all manner of things,” said Roger Awan-Scully, that it might happen. head of politics and international relations at the University of Cardiff. “Imagine Trump doing Brexit,” Mr. Johnson said in private comments that were recorded and After three years of slow political convulsions, Brexit leaked. ”He’d go in bloody hard. There’d be all sorts of has reordered British politics to such an extent that breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think almost everything is now refracted through voter he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. perceptions of that issue. It’s a very, very good thought.” And in this polarizing context, Mr. Johnson seems to be Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Johnson defies many of the normal presenting himself as the man who will deliver Brexit rules of politics, laughing off setbacks and ignoring despite the opposition of lawmakers and the questions he would rather not answer. (He has, for establishment, limbering up for a “people against example, never said publicly how many children he has Parliament” campaign. fathered.) “We are seeing everything through Brexit lenses,” said Some political pollsters say Mr. Johnson’s relative Mr. Awan-Scully. This tendency, he said, may break well success may say more about the nation he leads than for the Conservatives in a general election that most about him. analysts considered inevitable. “You are not talking about one country, it is two, made Sara Hobolt, a professor at the London School of up of Remain supporters and Brexit supporters and they Economics, goes further, describing a Conservative usually disagree over just about everything,” said John majority as the “most likely outcome” of the next Curtice, a professor at the University of Strathclyde and general election, “if the vote splits the right way.” Britain’s most respected polling expert.

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NYT 20 Sep 2019

By historical standards, Mr. Johnson is not particularly Mr. Curtice. “Half the country dislikes him and he does popular for a new prime minister, said Mr. Curtice, but not seem to be certain in his public performances, so in a society polarized by Brexit, he is a “Marmite we are wondering how this is going to pan out.” politician” — referring to the thick yeasty paste that The Conservative lead over the Labour Party probably Britons love or loathe. says more about the opposition’s weakness than the YouGov, a London-based polling concern, said government’s strength, and illustrates the scramble for Conservatives have nearly doubled their voter votes on both sides of the Brexit divide. preference rating compared with three months ago to While Mr. Johnson is battling with Mr. Farage, Mr. 32 percent, around nine percentage points ahead of Corbyn is in a fight with the newly revived centrist and Labour. pro-European Liberal Democrats under the leadership Asked in one YouGuv survey who would be the best of Jo Swinson. prime minister, Mr. Johnson scored 38 percent among “The competition is not between Johnson and Corbyn, respondents, while Mr. Corbyn scored 22 percent it’s between Johnson and Farage on the one hand, and (lower even than Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa Corbyn and Swinson on the other,” Mr. Curtice said. May, who scored 29 percent in June). “The reason Johnson is ahead is not because he has “Boris Johnson’s reputation among leavers is simply squeezed the Labour vote, it’s because he has squeezed reinforced by recent developments — and similarly the Brexit Party.” among Remainers,” Mr. Curtice said. So Mr. Johnson’s prospects may depend largely on That was illustrated on Monday in Luxembourg when, whether he can continue to do that as Brexit reaches greeted by a small group of protesters, Mr. Johnson another decisive moment. skipped a news conference with the Luxembourg prime Having promised repeatedly to leave the bloc on Oct. minister, Xavier Bettel, who proceeded without him and 31, Mr. Johnson is hemmed in. Parliament has passed a blamed the British for the Brexit “mess.” law requiring him to request another delay if he cannot Just before the meeting Mr. Johnson compared Britain’s get a new Brexit agreement — and a deal with Brussels efforts to escape the European Union to the adventures still remains a long shot. of the Incredible Hulk, the Marvel superhero. So, when If Mr. Johnson fails to deliver Brexit, or compromises he withdrew from the news conference, critics too much in the eyes of pro-Brexit Britons, Mr. Farage christened Mr. Johnson the “incredible sulk.” But Brexit will be on the attack again, crying betrayal, Mr. Curtice supporters saw a continental leader victimizing their said. Such an outcome would be ominous for the Tories man. (“Luxembourg laughs in Johnson’s face” was the and their leader. banner headline in the pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph.) “The $64,000 question is can he deliver and what can According to his supporters, such events further cement he deliver?” Mr. Curtice said. “If he can’t get an Mr. Johnson in the public mind as “Mr. Brexit,” helping agreement and can’t get no-deal through Parliament him to marginalize Mr. Farage and cannibalize support the question will be: ‘Is this any more than a joke?’” from his insurgent Brexit Party.

Mr. Awan-Scully said that, by uniting the pro-Brexit right, Mr. Johnson could win enough of a fragmented electorate for election victory. Britain’s electoral system operates on a winner-take-all basis, so divisions among his opponents could allow Mr. Johnson a path. But Mr. Curtice expressed caution that Mr. Johnson’s core vote might not be enough. “He’s loved by Leavers and almost universally disliked by those who voted Remain. So he only has about 50 percent of the population that he can appeal to,” said 2

Guardian 23 Sep 2019

Labour has let the fight over Brexit distract it from shouted at: they have been summarily abolished as defeating the Tories insufficiently leader-loyal. Trigger ballots for MPs stir local strife, distracting them from pre-election Polly Toynbee canvassing, door-knocking local members instead. The vote against remain at conference will bitterly Fixing slates for internal elections is an undemocratic disappoint members and divert energy from defeating affront, while failure to stamp out antisemitism is Boris Johnson incomprehensible to most: some union interference Mon 23 Sep 2019 14.17 EDT reeks of an old poison. Obsession here with what would follow a Jeremy Corbyn defeat is in itself a recipe for The best and the worst of Labour are locked in mortal that defeat. combat at their conference, less left and right, more the admirable and the despicable, often tussling within the Yet all that is only one side of this high-and-low party. souls of the very same players. This can be a detestable Attending the conference is a good annual reminder of party, yet in its next breath the most uplifting, a soaring the sheer decency of local Labour people toiling for then plummeting rollercoaster to observe. what they passionately believe – public servants, volunteers, carers, teachers, union reps and food bank Admirable visions of all that could be under a Labour organisers who are the backbone of communities and government were spelled out in John McDonnell’s the party’s backbone, as ever. They bring stories of radical stream of policies to make bad working lives what a decade of cuts has done to their better. Some working conditions have reverted to neighbourhoods, their experience of the effect of brutish pre-union days: the care workers, delivery benefit cuts and services stripped bare, reminders of drivers, warehouse pickers, overworked and underpaid. how severe austerity has been. They look on the state Ken Loach’s latest harrowing horror movie, Sorry We of the party mostly with despair, whispering fears that Missed You, previewed here, is a heartrending depiction Labour in its present state may lose. of the working wrongs that McDonnell addresses. Shorter working hours and better pay are only part of Mostly remainers, they see local members and voters Labour’s intent to shift the share of income, power and fleeing to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Many wealth at least back to where it was 40 years ago. looked on aghast as Corbyn manoeuvred himself into a Labour’s Green New Deal is a double win, decarbonising lose-lose trap by making the vote over Brexit policy a energy, insulating homes and bringing green industries loyalty test: either the conference voted remain, which to areas in most need of good jobs. From speech to would be a slap in the face to his leadership, or else speech, on offer are remedies for the decade of they voted to back their leader. That’s what they did, stagnant wages. against the overwhelming wishes of Labour voters and greatly risking the next election. But all this jostles with a self-destructive madness strewing obstacles in its way. Brexit chaos is emblematic Most know the truth of the YouGov poll for the People’s of Labour’s failure to focus ferociously on winning. Vote campaign that found 72% of Labour leavers said Sometimes the leader and his coterie look as if taking they would definitely not vote Tory and 48% would not real power comes second to sectarian, internal petty vote for the Brexit party. But only 14% of Labour remain party victories. voters said they would definitely not vote Lib Dem. Fear of Labour losing millions of voters to leave parties is Many looked on aghast as Corbyn made the vote a exaggerated; the greater risk is losing remain votes to loyalty test: either vote remain, or back your leader, the Lib Dems and the Greens. which they did The spitting attacks on Lib Dems in every speech here For all those yearning for a Labour victory, this year’s won’t stop that flight. Better by far to look at the facts: conference is a pretty miserable experience. Paranoid Labour’s best hope of beating off Boris Johnson is by determination to cleanse any traces of “Blairism” uniting parties in revulsion against the prospect of five suggests a party in the grip of panic, not self-confident years of his government. Tactical voting by anti-Tory soon-to-be victors. The plot against Tom Watson was a forces requires less mutual enmity from both Jo dismal start. Labour students harmlessly selling printed Swinson and Labour, urging their voters to follow advice copies of speeches, as they always do, tell of being 1

Guardian 23 Sep 2019 that will be widely disseminated in the 100 key marginals by a People’s Vote vote-swap campaign. That could deny the Tories as many as 60 seats. That would make Labour the largest party, to some degree sustained by Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and others. That’s the prize. Johnson ought to be the most beatable proposition Labour has ever faced, banishing some of his party’s best people, ignoring the climate crisis and threatening to abolish all the “nannying” regulations he always mocked. He will promise tempting tax cuts plus lavish spending, a fantasy financier. Labour will offer far greater spending, but with tax rises for which they need to make a strong case. Lose the election this time and the case for tax not as a burden but as a price for civilisation will be lost for a long while. That’s why Labour’s manifesto has to be a watertight and best- costed case for repairing the decade of damage. Brexit is only a manifestation of Labour’s woes, a party in transition. Trying to hold on to former Labour voters, now Brexiters, is a backward-looking cause. Labour has become far more progressive than it was, in tune with changing times and a younger generation – socially liberal, feminist, multicultural, pro-LGBT, open, internationalist and deeply determined to confront the climate crisis. That’s where most of its support now lies, where the future lies, why its supporters are remainers. That’s why its leadership has made a grave mistake in demanding the party stays firmly rooted on the fence. • Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

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Guardian 23 Sep 2019

This election will transform Britain – its It is possible to detect a pattern: a moment of crisis, a impact will last decades decade of collapse, and a period of rebuilding. More than 10 years on from the global financial crisis, there is Tom Kibasi a real possibility that the 2020s will define our political and economic settlement for an entire generation. The Brexit crisis will initiate a new order. People who care about climate, austerity and inequality must act The consequence of the 1945 election was that markets now to win the 2020s were tamed to serve people for 30 years. That achievement was reversed when, in 1979, a new era of Mon 23 Sep 2019 13.29 EDT market fundamentalism was unleashed. Is it possible to With an imminent general election, both the main build a post-crash consensus in the 2020s that will carry political parties are riven by rows over Brexit and how us into the decades ahead? This could be the last tough a line to take. Yet the lesson of the last election in general election of the neoliberal era. The alternative is 2017 was that the public gets to choose which issues that it perpetuates what Gramsci called the really matter, not the politicians – and politicians forget “interregnum” – the period when the old is dying but at their peril that elections are about issues that are as the new cannot be born. broad as life itself. And this forthcoming vote could well Either corporate power and excess will be tamed – or be much more consequential than the last one: not just inequality and injustice will deepen, with the spread of wider than Brexit, but bigger than it too. new technologies that increase the wealth and power of Brexit itself is merely the prism through which a much the new global elite. Either the finance sector will be larger contest has been refracted. Over the past few pacified – or everyone else will live at the mercy of its years, the Brexit debate has shifted away from the investment and lending decisions, awaiting the next question of whether the UK would secure a “good deal” financial crisis. Either those with the broadest shoulders or a “bad deal” from the European Union – as if we will contribute more for better public services, or those were haggling over the price of a secondhand car – services will continue to be degraded, and public sector towards a more isolationist impulse. Now the Brexiters workers will see their living standards continue to fall. argue we should walk away with a “clean break”. the society in which we live. Not only whether it cares There is a real possibility that the 2020s will define our for the poor and vulnerable who have been mistreated political and economic settlement for an entire by austerity, but whether we expand the bounds of generation what we do together and for one another. Will we end, The truth is that Brexit was never a unilateralist project mend or renew our social contract? but an Atlanticist one. For the Brexiters now in the The debate on so-called “universal basic services” – cabinet, the project was never about splendid isolation reimagining the norms for what the state provides – is but rather diverging from the European social and the entry point. Will social care be provided free at the economic model, and embracing the American way of point of need or will the burden fall on individuals and life. That means a sink-or-swim society, with much families? Will public transport be made cheap and lower levels of social protection. Its moral principles are plentiful right across the country, just as it is in London? spartan: the strong do what they can and the weak Will we make big datasets available to all researchers suffer what they must. and entrepreneurs, or keep them walled away for the So this year’s election must be located in the deeper benefit of giant companies? Should internet access be choices the country faces. Twice in the last century, one universal and free? We have an opportunity to redefine economic and political settlement has broken down to which parts of life are made better by working together be replaced by another. Just as the crises of the 1930s and what should still be left up to individuals. precipitated the formation of the postwar consensus in There is generational urgency to this election too. The the 40s, and the multiple crises of the 70s heralded the past decade has been especially tough on young people: neoliberal settlement of the 80s, the 2020s could hold millennials are the first generation of the modern era to similar significance. be poorer than their parents, the legacy of growing up under austerity and neoliberalism. They are becoming 1

Guardian 23 Sep 2019 more politically engaged and hungry for more profound the final say on Brexit; by writing a new constitution change than is commonly imagined. But their demands that belongs to the people; and by asserting democratic are individual rather than collective, conservative rather control over the economy so that it serves society. The than radical. They want those things their parents coming election could define our country for a enjoyed: the opportunity for an education unsaddled generation. It is a choice so much bigger than Brexit. with debt; a secure job with decent pay; the chance to • Tom Kibasi is director of the Institute for Public Policy own a home of their own; and a planet left to live on. Research. He writes in a personal capacity For now, the political choices made by the younger generation show they have hope that democratic and collective action can meet their demands. But what if nothing changes? It is not hard to imagine ageing millennials turning sharply towards the populist right if the broken status quo is sustained. Looming larger than all else is how we choose to respond to climate breakdown. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has set a challenge to the world to radically change course by 2030 before tipping points are passed. These are not just about climate, but about the preservation of nature from the oceans to the mountains. No political party should be permitted to enter the coming election without a credible proposal for what it will do. The truth is that we can only seize the opportunities of the 2020s through collective action. And democracy itself remains our last, best hope of doing so. In recent times, the institutions of our democracy have creaked under the strain of extraordinary division. It is often said that the UK has an “unwritten constitution”, but that diverts us from its true character: our constitution belongs to the ruling class, not to the people. It is a set of rules and conventions for how the elite will conduct themselves as they govern the masses. It is precisely because Brexit has detonated that elite consensus that there is an opportunity to renew democracy for the common good. For all the doom-mongering, there is extraordinary potential for democratic flourishing. Who could fail to be inspired by the young climate strikers taking to the streets to demand their futures? Who can fail to see how technology could take political power away from the billionaire press barons and put it in the hands of the people? For all the problems with unregulated digital platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, we cannot miss the bigger opportunity to harness the explosion of energy towards building a better society. The answer to our problems is more democracy, not less. We could start the 2020s by letting people have 2

Guardian 23 Sep 2019

Boris Johnson refuses to rule out Johnson has repeatedly insisted that the prorogation suspending parliament again was purely technical, allowing a pause in Commons proceedings so a new set of planned legislation could be PM says adverse supreme court ruling would not stop announced in a Queen’s speech. him proroguing parliament again Johnson said: “Actually, when it comes to parliamentary Peter Walker in New York scrutiny, what are we losing? Four or five days of parliamentary scrutiny when parliament has had three Mon 23 Sep 2019 17.30 EDT years to discuss the issue, and will be able to come back Boris Johnson has refused to rule out suspending and discuss Brexit after the European council on 17 and parliament again if the supreme court rules on Tuesday 18 October.” that he abused his powers as prime minister in doing so Asked if it would be a resignation matter if he lost the earlier this month. case, Johnson said: “I will wait and see what the justices The British prime minister, who is in New York for a UN decide, but as I have said before, I believe that the summit, also indicated he would not feel obliged to reasons for wanting a Queen’s speech are very good resign if the justices rule he misled the Queen in his indeed.” reasons for suspending parliament. The PM declined to rule out prorogation again before Asked if he felt a verdict going against him would make the current Brexit deadline of 31 October if the first his position untenable, Johnson said: “No. I think the suspension was struck down, saying only: “I am saying reasons for wanting a Queen’s speech are extremely that parliament will have bags of time to scrutinise the good.” deal that I hope we’ll be able to do.” Speaking to reporters, Johnson also categorically ruled At the supreme court hearing, Miller’s barrister, Lord out any sort of deal with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party in Pannick, argued that if the court ruled in her favour but the likely imminent election, saying the Conservatives declined to end the suspension, it would be possible for would contest every seat. the Speakers of the Commons and Lords to reassemble The supreme court judgment, which could have a huge parliament themselves. impact not just on Johnson’s future but also the wider Meanwhile on Monday, the head of the Bar Council ability of the courts to take a view in political decisions condemned unidentified “Number 10” sources who made by government, is due to be announced at were quoted in the weekend papers as warning the 10.30am, following last week’s hearing. judiciary about taking sides over Brexit. The panel of 11 judges were tasked with hearing Richard Atkins QC, chair of the organisation that appeals from two separate legal challenges to Johnson’s represents barristers in England and Wales, also decision to prorogue parliament – the technical term criticised death threats sent to one of the litigants in the for gaps in parliamentary sessions which do not involve prorogation case whose home address was revealed on dissolution before an election – for five weeks from 9 Twitter. September. “It is a low point in the history of our nation when a The move outraged many MPs, who said it was an faceless ‘No 10 source’ refers to ‘remainiac lawyers’ and attempt to muzzle them at a crucial time in Brexit issues threats to the judiciary about its constitutional negotiations. role suggesting that judges take sides,” said Atkins. A case brought by the campaigner Gina Miller at the “The rule of law and the independence of the judiciary high court in London was rejected. However, a case in are fundamental pillars of our democracy. Judges do Scotland brought by a cross-party group of MPs and not take sides as the Downing Street source suggests, peers won a ruling that the decision was unlawful but apply the law ‘without fear or favour’.” because it was “motivated by the improper purpose of stymieing parliament”.

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Guardian 23 Sep 2019

weeks was unlawful. The case will go to the supreme Timeline court. The plan to prorogue parliament and the court cases 17 September 2019 – 19 September 2019 against it Supreme court hearing due 24 August 2019 The Supreme court begins three-day hearing to join The story breaks together all the appeals and legal challenges to the The Observer breaks the story that Boris Johnson has prorogation. sought legal advice on closing parliament for five weeks 14 October 2019 27 August 2019 MPs return? Leaks spread The date that Boris Johnson is planning for the state Other media organisations begin to receive leaks that opening of parliament and Queen's speech marking the Johnson will make a statement on prorogation start of the new session 28 August 2019 Visit to Balmoral Three privy counsellors, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, travel to Balmoral to tell the Queen of the prorogation plan. Cabinet ministers are informed by conference call 31 August 2019 Protests and protestations Tens of thousands protest against prorogation. Cross- party group of MPs steps up preparation for blocking no deal when parliament makes a brief return 3 September 2019 Parliament returns Parliament returns and the prime minister loses six votes in six days. MPs vote to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and refuse Johnson's attempts to force them into a general election. 6 September 2019 Gina Miller case fails Legal campaigner Gina Miller vows to continue her “fight for democracy” after the high court dismissed her claim that the prime minister acted unlawfully in giving advice to the Queen to suspend parliament at a time of momentous political upheaval. 9 September 2019 Parliament dissolved Parliament is dissolved amid chaotic scenes as some MPs hold up signs saying they have been silenced, try to prevent Speaker John Bercow leaving the chamber, and sing the Red Flag. 11 September 2019 Scottish court ruling The court of session in Scotland rules that Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five

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