City Net Zero Profile: Antofagasta
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City Net Zero Profile: Antofagasta With a metropolitan population of approximately 430,000, Antofagasta is the 5th largest city in Chile. It is the 74th largest in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean, and the 503rd largest city globally.1 Core City Population 370,000 Wider Metropolitan Area Population 430,000 This snapshot examines Antofagasta potential to accelerate towards ‘net zero’. It assesses: 1. How enabling is the city’s current endowment to decarbonise (inherited assets). 2. Ambition and strategy for a low carbon future. 3. Span of powers and influence to accelerate decarbonisation initiatives. 4. The platforms and projects underway that can support a lower carbon future. 5. The investment and business innovation environment to promote decarbonisation. These 5 dimensions are explored in the summary statements below. Summary and key findings By global and regional standards, Antofagasta is: A Net Zero Challenger. The city inherits a more carbon-intensive economy and an urban Assets form that requires bigger and bolder innovations for net zero restructuring. Net Zero Championed. In the absence of decisive net zero ambition from the city itself, Ambition internal and external champions raise the level of confidence citywide. A Net Zero Opportunist. More distributed leadership to explore key opportunities to host Powers and deliver innovations in the vacuum. A Net Zero Pathfinder: Fast becoming an epicentre of scalable and potentially Projects transformational projects in key sectors. A Net Zero Experimenter. Established relationships with multilateral development banks Innovation and some promising demonstration of private sector innovations to be built on in the next cycle. Figure 1: Antofagasta’s position within an emerging net zero typology *Based on initial data. Scores subject to change contingent on final checks and weightings. **Peer average refers to average among all measured cities in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean, except for projects and platforms, where it refers to average among the 6 Chilean and Colombian cities. Full list of indicators for each theme provided in Appendix. Aggregate scores calculated using an ELO algorithm. Figure 2: The main challenges facing Antofagasta in the journey to net zero *Based on a combination of external comparative data and level of urgency as identified in current strategies and plans and/or by industry practitioners during interviews carried out in early 2021. Based on the comparative data and observed insights from strategies and practitioners, among the key priority areas for Antofagasta to accelerate towards net zero appear to be: 1. Decarbonisation of the mining and water industries via renewable energy adoption 2. Electrification of public transport and the creation of an integrated public transport system in order to drive modal shift, strengthen intermodality and reduce transport emissions 3. Improving coordination across the region’s multiple stakeholders and empowering them to make decisions that span systems and sectors and so can underpin bolder city-wide changes Given these imperatives, the UK contribution has the potential to be most salient in the energy and transport sectors, especially in terms of: 1. Direct deployment of best-in-class solar design technologies to increase the efficiency of solar cells and help to harness any untapped potential of clean natural resources in the region 2. Market design, systems engineering and policy expertise on how to use policy and financial incentives to help shift to an output-based energy grid and decarbonise the electricity matrix 3. Assistance with the development of a regional sustainable transport plan, with clear business models and advice and support coordinating different stakeholders 2 How well set up is Antofagasta to go net zero? Table 1: Antofagasta’s aggregate scores in terms of current endowment to shift to net zero Score relative to Latin Rank among Latin American Latin American America Latin American leader laggard leader* cities (max = 1) Track record of compact development 0.51 Guayaquil Tijuana 45th / 51 Grande Sao Transport systems efficiency 0.49 Santiago 41st / 52 Luis Toluca de Urban canopy coverage and protection 0.40 Tijuana 22nd / 26 Lerdo *Among all measured cities in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean. All indicators featured in each of the 3 main sub themes detailed in Appendix. Aggregate scores and ranks calculated using an ELO algorithm. Antofagasta is different from many other cities because, despite inheriting urban systems that are less conducive to decarbonisation, the presence of certain natural assets in the wider territorial region means the city may have a higher potential for progress in the next cycle. The urban systems underpinning the city today are not aligned with a strong decarbonisation agenda and the economic dynamics fuelling Antofagasta’s urbanisation processes have up to now been largely concentrated in energy intensive-activities, such as copper mining. As a result, Antofagasta produces more CO2 per person than any other Chilean city region.2 However, the potential contributions of the city region’s natural assets to the expansion of renewable energies are significant, and the strength of the regional economy means there are also many public and private initiatives that can help to foster urban transformation. On one hand, the systems supporting Antofagasta’s urbanisation have up until now not been conducive to decarbonisation. The city’s transport system is highly reliant on fossil fuels, due mainly to a low penetration of e-mobility and urban cycling. Antofagasta’s bike lanes cover less than 3 per cent of the urban road network, putting the city 8th among 13 measured Chilean cities.3 At less than 50%, the sustainable mode share for the city is in the middle of the pack, but the all-round accessibility and efficiency of the public transport system remains behind (see Table 2).4 Meanwhile, the recycling rate remains very low, and per capita waste generation remains nearly 25% higher than the standard set by National Urban Policy.5 The treatment of waste for industrial activities in the region, including hazardous waste, is also a pressing challenge. Antofagasta’s inherited assets also pose more of a challenge to the journey to net zero. Antofagasta has inherited a relatively low density urban form, and has sprawled more rapidly than nearly all other Latin American cities in recent decades. Its built-up area has increased by nearly a quarter between 2000 and 2015, driving up emissions associated with commuting and transport.6 Meanwhile, partly as a result of its desert geography, Antofagasta also has fewer ‘green’ assets and a much higher baseline of per capita electricity consumption, relative to other Latin American cities. In the absence of significant local opportunities for carbon sequestration, Antofagasta may have to prioritise other approaches to decarbonisation in the next cycle. Antofagasta’s energy distribution system is mainly based on non-renewable energy resources, and the adoption of solutions to reduce energy has so far been relatively limited. Additionally, the supply of water through seawater desalination plants for economic activities, as well as for human consumption, significantly impacts and increases energy demand. On the other hand, Antofagasta’s copper and lithium reserves, and its solar energy potential, make the city a potential platform for future decarbonisation efforts. As the main urban centre of a large desert that hosts one of the most important mining industries in Chile and Latin America, Antofagasta accounts for 54% of national copper mining production.7 Antofagasta also hosts major projects for lithium production.8 The presence of the mining industry has two important implications for the city. One the hand, 3 it means that Antofagasta’s path towards net zero, regardless of the jurisdictional boundaries of the municipality, will be highly reliant on the progress of mining companies in reducing the emissions of their energy intensive 24/7 operations. Current estimates suggest that Antofagasta accounts for more than half of Chilean energy consumption associated with the copper mining industry.9 On the other hand, the resources generated by this activity, and the strategic location of the city within the value chain of renewable energy production, means the city has a higher potential to structure and execute projects capable of reducing the environmental impact of its urban systems and dynamics. A key challenge for the next cycle will be incentivising a shift to renewable electricity production and delivering more efficient and sustainable mechanisms for energy storage. Antofagasta’s regional solar energy potential is also unique. Due to the high levels of solar radiation, Antofagasta offers the highest potential for solar energy generation among all Chilean regions.10 Installed solar power capacity is growing fast, and further expansion is expected, providing alternatives for reducing the carbon intensity of energy consumption in the city and in the industrial activities of the region, including mining.11 The wider region is also already hosting wind power projects and there are local players actively exploring opportunities around green hydrogen. Table 2: Antofagasta’s performance versus Latin American cities across key net zero endowment metrics Average Antofagasta’s among Latin Latin American Latin American Rank performance American leader laggard cities* Track record of Built-up area expansion