A Redevelopment Study for the Northland Center Mall in the City of Southfield, Michigan
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A Redevelopment Study for the Northland Center Mall in the City of Southfield, Michigan Prepared For: Mr. James M. Houk, ASLA, AICP OHM Advisors 580 N. Fourth St., Suite 610 Columbus, Ohio 43215 Project Number D2113KDMB August 22, 2016 Danter Company, LLC National Leaders in Real Estate Research 2760 Airport Drive | Suite 135 Columbus, OH 43219 614.221.9096 http://www.danter.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... I-1 A. OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................... I-1 B. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. I-1 C. DATA ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. I-2 D. USES AND APPLICATIONS ............................................................................. I-2 II. SCOPE OF SURVEY ............................................................................................... II-1 III. CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................................... III-1 A. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ III-1 B. RETAIL ........................................................................................................... III-2 C. MARKET-RATE APARTMENTS ................................................................... III-10 D. STUDENT HOUSING ................................................................................... III-40 E. SENIOR HOUSING ...................................................................................... III-73 F. PLANNED/PROPOSED/UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ................ III-83 G. EMA RENTAL BASE .................................................................................... III-84 H. EMA DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS ................................................................ III-88 I. LODGING ..................................................................................................... III-93 J. OFFICE ....................................................................................................... III-114 K. CONDOMINIUM ......................................................................................... III-123 IV. THE SITE ............................................................................................................. IV-1 A. DESCRIPTION AND LOCATION .................................................................... IV-1 B. SITE EVALUATION ........................................................................................ IV-2 C. EFFECTIVE MARKET AREA (EMA) .............................................................. IV-5 RETAIL EMA MAP ..................................................................................... IV-6 MARKET-RATE APARTMENT/CONDOMINIUM EMA MAP ...................... IV-7 SENIOR HOUSING EMA MAP .................................................................. IV-8 LODGING CMA/OFFICE EMA MAP .......................................................... IV-9 D. COMMUNITY SERVICES ............................................................................. IV-10 ii V. SITE AREA MAPS AND PHOTOGRAPHS ............................................................. V-1 NEIGHBORHOOD MAP .................................................................................. V-2 SITE LOCATION MAP .................................................................................... V-3 COMMUNITY SERVICES MAP ...................................................................... V-4 SITE PHOTOGRAPHS ................................................................................... V-5 VI. FIELD SURVEY OF MODERN APARTMENTS .................................................... VI-1 VII. FIELD SURVEY OF MODERN APARTMENTS (STUDENT HOUSING) ............ VII-1 VIII. LOCATION MAPS AND PHOTOGRAPHS ....................................................... VIII-1 APARTMENT LOCATIONS MAPS .............................................................. VIII-2 ASSISTED-LIVING LOCATIONS MAP ........................................................ VIII-8 INDEPENDENT-LIVING LOCATIONS MAP ................................................ VIII-9 CONDOMINIUM LOCATIONS MAP .......................................................... VIII-10 LODGING LOCATIONS MAP .................................................................... VIII-11 OFFICE LOCATIONS MAPS ..................................................................... VIII-12 APARTMENT PHOTOGRAPHS ................................................................ VIII-14 IX. AREA ECONOMY ................................................................................................ IX-1 A. EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS ..................................................................... IX-1 B. HOUSING STARTS ...................................................................................... IX-4 DEMOGRAPHICS GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................. G-1 QUALIFICATIONS AND SERVICES ........................................................................... Q-1 iii I. INTRODUCTION A. BACKGROUND This report identifies the level of market support and redevelopment potential of the existing, but closed, Northland Center Mall located in Southfield, Michigan. The mall is located at the intersection of Northwestern Highway and Greenfield Road, north of 8 Mile Road, in the City of Southfield, Michigan. Initial construction began in 1952 and was completed in March, 2954. Designed by Victor Gruen and developed by the J.L. Hudson Company, the mall was a leader in regional shopping centers. It originally was anchored by a four-level Hudson’s Department store. The mall contains 1,449,719 square feet on 125 acres. There is parking for 8,700 vehicles. The mall was enclosed in the 1970’s and expanded several times thereafter to include over 100 stores. Macy’s, the last anchor, closed in 2015 and was subsequently purchased by the City of Southfield. B. OBJECTIVES This report identifies the level of market support and redevelopment potential of the existing, but closed, Northland Center Mall located in Southfield, Michigan. Uses considered include: 1. Market-rate apartments (upscale and senior) 2. Office 3. Retail/commercial 4. Lodging 5. Condominiums 6. Senior assisted housing Conclusions and recommendations are predicated on the development of a mixed use property containing, at the least, residential, office and sufficient retail to establish the mixed use “branding” of the property. Such mixed use creates a synergy that maximizes the marketability and rents that can be achieved. I-1 C. METHODOLOGY The methodology we use in our studies is centered on four analytical techniques: the Effective Market Area (EMA) principle, Competitive Market Area (CMA) principle, a 100% data base, and the application of data generated from supplemental proprietary research. The Effective Market Area (EMA)—Our residential conclusions for the market potential of the subject project are based on a thorough analysis of the Effective Market Area (EMA). EMA refers to a methodology developed by The Danter Company to describe areas of similar economic and demographic characteristics. The EMA is the smallest area expected to contain the greatest concentration (60% to 70%) of support for the proposed project. EMA boundaries have been determined based on interviews with area real estate, planning, and housing professionals, analysis of area mobility patterns, and past surveys conducted by The Danter Company. The EMA may differ between land uses. For example, the EMA for apartments may be different than a retail EMA. The EMA will be defined in each of the following component recommendations. A 100% data base provides substantial advantages over looking at only a selected comparables. A 100% data base allows consideration of the proposed project in the context of the whole area market, establishing a relationship to other area properties. Further, it allows us to identify potential product and pricing niches not previously considered, as well as the potential for identifying replacement support. The EMA is defined by the existing facility configurations relative to the proposed site, location of population, density of support components, and highway patterns. This methodology has significant advantages in that it considers existing natural and manmade boundaries and socioeconomic conditions. It also enables us to make market share calculations and estimates. In the case of lodging analysis, the EMA in not practical given that the end consumer comes from a wide, national or even international, area. In the lodging analysis a Competitive Market Area (CMA) is defined. The CMA is defined by the site proximity to lodging generators and the relative location of competitive facilityes. Survey Data Base—Our surveys employ a l00% data base. In the course of a study, our field analysts survey not only the developments within a given range of price, amenities, or facilities, but all modern developments within the EMA. Proprietary Research—In addition to site-specific analyses, The Danter Company, Incorporated conducts a number of ongoing studies, the results of which are used as support data for our conclusions. I-2 D. DATA ANALYSIS This study represents a compilation of data