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Англ Яз-Тур 19 03 20-В Работу.Indd EURASIAN EURASIAN ERI RESEARCH RESEARCH ERI INSTITUTE INSTITUTE AKHMET YASSAWI UNIVERSITY AKHMET YASSAWI UNIVERSITY EURASIA OUTLOOK 20182019 ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES IN EURASIA EditorsEditors: : VakurVakur SUMERSUMER ││ ZhengizkhanZhengizkhan ZHANALTAYZHANALTAY ││ SuatDauren BEYLUR ABEN │ Dauren ABEN EURASIAN ERI RESEARCH INSTITUTE AKHMET YASSAWI UNIVERSITY EURASIA OUTLOOK 2019 ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES IN EURASIA Editors Vakur SUMER Zhengizkhan ZHANALTAY Suat BEYLUR Dauren ABEN EURASIA OUTLOOK 2019: ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES IN EURASIA Editors Vakur Sumer Zhengizkhan Zhanaltay Suat Beylur Dauren Aben ERI Books No: 16 ISBN 978-601-7805-19-7 This edition is published by Eurasian Research Institute Almali Avdani, Mametova 48, 050004, Almaty, Kazakhstan Phone: +7 (727) 279 97 94 Fax: +7 (727) 279 24 26 www.eurasian-research.org • e-mail: [email protected] © Khoca Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University Eurasian Research Institute (ERI), 2020 (print and electronic) All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Distributed by Eurasian Research Institute Almali Avdani, Mametova 48, 050004, Almaty, Kazakhstan Typeset in Kazakhstan by Printed and bound in Kazakhstan, Almaty 1st Edition: March 2020, Almaty The views expressed in the analyses are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy. To Our Beloved Families for Their Never Ending Support and Understanding. CONTENT İÇİNDEKİLER FOREWORD / SUNUŞ .........................................................9 PREFACE / ÖNSÖZ ..........................................................11 Özel Röportaj / Special Interview • Eurasian Research Institute: Past, Present and Future Avrasya Araştırma Enstitüsü’nün Dünü, Bugünü ve Geleceği ..............13 CHAPTER 1. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION OF THE EURASIAN COUNTRIES: INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ASPECTS BÖLÜM 1. AVRASYA ÜLKELERİNDE SİYASİ VE EKONOMİK İŞBİRLİKLERİ: ULUSLARARASI VE BÖLGESEL YÖNLER. 19 COOPERATION AMONG INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND REGIONAL POWERS ULUSLARARASI ORGANİZASYONLAR VE BÖLGESEL GÜÇLER ARASINDAKİ İŞBİRLİĞİ ........................................................21 • President Mirziyoyev’s Pivot to Central Asian Cooperation: Progress Made Over Two Years Cumhurbaşkanı Mirziyoyev’in Bölge Ülkeleri ile İşbirliğini Artırma Yönelimi: İki Yıl İçerisinde Kaydedilen Gelişmeler ..................................23 • Will Russia and Japan Reach Consensus on Kuril Islands? Rusya ve Japonya, Kuril Adaları Üzerinde Mutabakata Varabilecek mi? .......29 • Kyrgyzstan’s Regional Politics under Jeenbekov Ceenbekov’un Başkanlığındaki Kırgızistan’ın Bölgesel Politikası .............35 • Possible Impact of U.S.-Iran Tensions on China ABD-İran Geriliminin Çin’e Olası Etkileri ..................................41 EU in Central Asia: New Strategy, Old Ideas Orta Asya’da AB: Yeni Strateji, Eski Fikirler ................................47 • Current Status of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea Hazar Denizi’nin Yasal Statüsü Hakkındaki Sözleşme’nin Mevcut Durumu ....53 • Xi Jinping’s First Visit to North Korea: Causes and Effects Xi Jinping’in İlk Kuzey Kore Ziyareti: Nedenleri ve Etkileri ..................59 • Japan and South Korea: Allies in Conflict Japonya ve Güney Kore: Çatışan Müttefikler ..............................65 • Enlargement of the Turkic Council: Opportunities and Perspectives Türk Konseyi’nin Genişlemesi: Fırsatlar ve Beklentiler ......................71 COOPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE ULUSLARARASI TİCARETTE İŞBİRLİĞİ ...........................................77 • Foreign Economic Policy of the Eurasian Economic Union: The Case of Free Trade Agreements Avrasya Ekonomik Birliği’nin Bölge Dışı Ekonomi Politikası: Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmaları Örneği .............................................79 5 • The Belt and Road Initiative: Agricultural Projects in Kazakhstan Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi: Kazakistan’ın Tarım Projeleri ........................85 COOPERATION IN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ÇEVRESEL KONULARDA İŞBİRLİĞİ ..............................................89 • The Aral Sea: Is Recovery Still Possible? Aral Gölü’nün Kurtarılması Hâlâ Mümkün mü? ...........................91 COOPERATION ON MIGRATION ISSUES GÖÇ KONUSUNDA İŞBİRLİĞİ. .97 • Mediterranean Migrant Crisis: Impact of Irregular Refugee Deals Akdeniz Göçmen Krizi: Yasa Dışı Mülteci Anlaşmalarının Etkisi ..............99 • Syrian Migrants in Turkey: From Guests to Settlers Türkiye’deki Suriyeli Göçmenler: Misafirlikten Yerleşik Düzene Geçiş ........105 • New EU Leadership: Implications for the European Refugee Crisis Yeni Avrupa Birliği Liderliği: Avrupa’daki Mülteci Krizine Etkileri ............111 COOPERATION IN SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES GÜVENLİK VE DIŞ POLİTİKA ALANLARINDA İŞBİRLİĞİ ...........................117 • Ensuring Cybersecurity in Kazakhstan: Problems and Solutions Kazakistan’da Siber Güvenliğin Sağlanması: Sorunlar ve Çözümler .........119 • Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Lessons from Kazakhstan Kore Yarımadası’nın Nükleer Silahlardan Arındırılması: Kazakistan Tecrübesi .................................................125 • The Global Terrorism Index and Central Asia Küresel Terör İndeksi ve Orta Asya .....................................131 • Key Directions of Tajikistan’s Current Foreign Policy Tacikistan’ın Günümüzdeki Dış Politikasının Temel Özellikleri ..............137 • Russia’s Pivot to Africa Rusya’nın Afrika’ya Yönelişi ...........................................143 CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIES OF THE EURASIAN COUNTRIES BÖLÜM 2. AVRASYA ÜLKELERİNİN EKONOMİLERİ ............................149 FISCAL BALANCE AND FINANCIAL MARKETS KAMU MALİ DENGESİ VE FİNANSAL PİYASALAR ................................151 • Kazakhstan’s Monetary Policy: Analysis of Recent Developments Son Gelişmeler Işığında Kazakistan’ın Para Politikasının Analizi ............153 • Current Developments in Kazakhstan’s Insurance Market Kazakistan’ın Sigorta Piyasasındaki Güncel Gelişmeler ....................157 DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMIES OF EURASIAN COUNTRIES AVRASYA ÜLKELERİNDE EKONOMİK GELİŞMELER ...............................163 • The Phenomenon of Self-Employment in Kazakhstan Kazakistan’da Serbest Meslek Olgusu ..................................165 • What Jobs Will Be in Demand in the Future? Gelecekte Hangi Meslekler Talep Görecek? ..............................171 • Economic Growth in Kazakhstan: Update for the First Half of 2019 Kazakistan’da Ekonomik Büyüme: 2019 Yılının İlk Yarısının Sonuçları ........177 6 • China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor: Interests of the Parties Çin-Moğolistan-Rusya Ekonomik Koridorunda Tarafların Çıkarları ..........181 • Investments in Kazakhstan: Economization of the Country’s Foreign Policy Kazakistan’a Yönelik Yatırımlar: Ülkenin Dış Politikasının Ekonomik Hedeflere Uyarlanması ...............................................187 • Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn Free Economic Zone: Potential for Cooperation with China Kırgızistan’ın Narın (Naryn) Serbest Ekonomik Bölgesi: Çin ile İşbirliği Potansiyeli. .193 • Innovations in China: Capacity for Technology Transfer to Kazakhstan Çin’deki Yenilikler: Kazakistan’a Teknoloji Transferi Kapasitesi .............199 ENERGY MARKETS AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES ENERJİ PİYASALARI VE ENDÜSTRİYEL YAPILAR .................................205 • Turkstream Gas Pipeline: Impact on Strategic Relations in Eurasia Türk Akımı Doğal Gaz Boru Hattı: Avrasya’daki Stratejik İlişkilere Etkisi ......207 • Future World Energy Outlook and Global Oil Industry Dünya Enerjisinin Geleceğine Yönelik Perspektifler ve Küresel Petrol Endüstrisi .....................................................213 CHAPTER 3. ENERGY TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS IN THE EURASIAN REGION BÖLÜM 3. AVRASYA BÖLGESİNDE ENERJİ TAŞIMACILIĞI VE LOJİSTİK .........217 DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TAŞIMACILIK ALTYAPISINDA GELİŞMELER. .219 • China’s Air Silk Road Initiative: Role of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Çin’in Hava İpek Yolu Girişiminde Sincan Uygur Özerk Bölgesi’nin Rolü .....221 • Western China-Western Europe Corridor: Problems and Solutions Batı Çin-Batı Avrupa Koridoru: Problemler ve Çözüm Yolları ...............227 • Transport and Logistics Potential of Turkistan Region Türkistan Eyaletinin Ulaşım ve Lojistik Potansiyeli ........................233 • The First Freight Train Travelling from China to Europe via Turkey Çin Kargo Treninin Türkiye Üzerinden Avrupa’ya İlk Seferi .................239 • Transport Potential of Economic Cooperation Organization Region Ekonomik İşbirliği Teşkilatı Bölgesinin Ulaşım Potansiyeli. 245 • China’s Arctic Policy and Polar Silk Road Çin’in Arktik Politikası ve Kutup İpek Yolu ...............................251 CHAPTER 4. SOCIO-POLITICAL AND SOCIO-CULTURAL DIMENSIONS OF THE EURASIAN COUNTRIES BÖLÜM 4. AVRASYA ÜLKELERİNİN SOSYO-POLİTİK VE SOSYO-KÜLTÜREL ÖZELLİKLERİ ...............................................................255 SOCIO-POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS SOSYO-POLİTİK GELİŞMELER. 257 • First Anniversary of Turkistan Region: Achievements and Perspectives Türkistan Eyaletinin Birinci Yıl Dönümü: Bölgenin Başarıları ve Geleceği .....259 • Russia’s Demographics in 2018 2018 Yılında Rusya’nın
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