South West Hertfordshire Retail and Leisure Study September 2018 FINAL Contact Riverside House 2a Southwark Bridge Road London SE1 9HA T: 020 7261 4240 E: [email protected] Job reference no: 32911 South West Hertfordshire Retail and Leisure Study Contents 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends ................................................................................................................................... 8 3.0 Planning Policy and Regeneration Context ................................................................................................................... 24 4.0 Assessment of Key Centres .................................................................................................................................................. 58 5.0 Population and Expenditure ................................................................................................................................................ 93 6.0 Original Market Research ................................................................................................................................................... 104 7.0 Retail Capacity......................................................................................................................................................................... 116 8.0 Leisure ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 143 9.0 Recommendations and Future Strategy ....................................................................................................................... 168 Glossary of Terms ............................................................................................................................................................................. 210 Appendices Appendix A | Study Area and Zones Appendix B | Centre Plans Appendix C | Health Checks Appendix D | Household Survey Results Appendix E | Statistical Tables Appendix F | Centre Boundaries Appendix G | Population Forecast Calculations Appendix H | Leisure Capacity Tables Appendix I | Planning Policy Commentary Appendix J | Local and Neighbourhood Centre Assessment Nexus Planning 3 South West Hertfordshire Retail and Leisure Study 1.0 Introduction Instruction 1.1 Nexus Planning (Nexus) was commissioned by Dacorum Borough Council, Hertsmere Borough Council, Three Rivers District Council and Watford Borough Council in October 2017, to produce a Joint Retail and Leisure Study for the four Council areas. St Albans City and District joined in with the original commissioning authorities in February 2018. 1.2 The commissioning authorities are currently undertaking reviews of their respective Local Plans. Technical work which has recently been undertaken has identified the five Council areas as being within a single housing and employment market area. Therefore, this 2018 Retail and Leisure Study will form part of the evidence base upon which the emerging Local Plans for each respective Local Authority are based. It will also feed into an emerging Joint Strategic Plan for South West Hertfordshire. 1.3 The approach adopted by Nexus has been refined to reflect the latest Government guidance. The Study was undertaken using guidance provided in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (March 2012), the revised NPPF (July 2018) and National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) (2014). 1.4 Accordingly, a fundamental objective of the Study is to produce a NPPF and NPPG compliant Retail and Leisure Study, which provides the Councils with an objective assessment of retail and leisure development needs, together with a clear understanding of retail and leisure provision and possible strategic responses. 1.5 The aims and objectives for this Study include the following; i. Provide context for the Study through a review of the national planning policy position and an appraisal of economic, retail and leisure trends in shopping patterns at a national and regional level and how this might affect the evolution of town centres and future policy recommendations; ii. Establish a retail market (catchment) area for the local authority areas’ retail facilities and their position within the wider sub-region; Nexus Planning 4 South West Hertfordshire Retail and Leisure Study iii. Review the hierarchy of centres within all five local authorities. This will include assessing the appropriateness of designated centre boundaries and providing recommendations on primary shopping areas and frontages. iv. Undertake a comprehensive assessment as to the existing vitality and viability of each of the authority area’s defined town and district retail centres, specifically: o Hemel Hempstead, Berkhamsted and Tring in Dacorum Borough; o Borehamwood, Potters Bar (Darkes Lanes), Potters Bar (High Street), Bushey, Bushey Heath and Radlett in Hertsmere Borough; o Rickmansworth, South Oxhey, Abbots Langley and Chorleywood in Three Rivers District; o St Albans City and Harpenden Town Centre in St Albans City and District Council; and o Watford and North Watford/St Albans Road in Watford Borough. v. Benchmark the performance, vitality and viability of centres against relevant and comparable town centre locations. Review each retail/town centre and rank them in a hierarchy; this review should look at smaller centres and parades. Town and local centre boundaries and neighbourhood centres need to be re-evaluated in the light of the findings. vi. Conduct a Telephone Household Survey to establish the current shopping patterns of respondents and the market shares of retail and leisure facilities across an identified Study Area; vii. Produce a flexible model for retail expenditure and floorspace projections across the Study Area that will allow for up-to-date population, expenditure and committed development information to be incorporated. This will also take account of the potential impact of the increase in online shopping (sometime referred to as ‘e-tailing’), as well as Scenario testing to take account of the changes in spatial patterns of development and projected population changes on the basis of the South West Hertfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2016; viii. Produce a quantitative assessment of the future demand for retail floorspace across the authority areas over the plan periods. This will establish the expenditure and floorspace Nexus Planning 5 South West Hertfordshire Retail and Leisure Study capacity of retail centres to meet projected population and expenditure growth over the study period and will incorporate a comparative assessment of changes since the previous studies. This would take into account the need for both convenience and comparison goods shop floorspace and be provided as local figures for each authority area; ix. Consider the potential impact of identified local issues, including spatial changes in residential population, new transport infrastructure, parking provision and accessibility requirements and advice on subsequent future town centre strategies that may be appropriate; x. Provide recommendations on the potential of the authority areas to meet the identified retail and leisure needs, in addition to a qualitative review and 'gap analysis' of current retail and commercial leisure provision (including arts and culture facilities) in the centres to identify whether there are any key uses or specific occupiers not currently represented in the centres. This will include an analysis of emerging retail and leisure sectors and any key constraints to be considered; xi. Review of potential locations to meet the identified retail and leisure needs, an overview of inflow/outflow of spending to/from the authority areas and opportunities to help facilitate ‘claw back’ of lost expenditure (where necessary). This may include recommendations of suitable locations for accommodating any forecast retail and leisure capacity; xii. Review draft policy wording to ensure they are fit for purpose and address any deficiencies across the centres; and xiii. Assessment of the potential impacts of permitted development rights and appropriate policy responses. 1.6 Nexus engaged NEMS Market Research Limited (NEMS) to undertake surveys of 2,200 households within a defined Study Area in November 2017 and February 20181. The Study Area for the household survey encompasses 22 zones, which are based on postcode sectors grouped to reflect areas that are expected to exhibit similar patterns of shopping behaviour. 1 After St Albans joined the commissioning authorities in February 2018 Nexus Planning 6 South West Hertfordshire Retail and Leisure Study 1.7 To inform this Study, Nexus has carried out a wide-ranging examination of existing operators within the Local Authority Areas and studied available published data sources, such as Experian GOAD and Venuescore. Nexus has also referred to the latest Experian population and expenditure data in order to establish the up-to-date position with regard to both convenience and comparison goods capacity. Structure of Report 1.8 We have structured our report as follows; • Section 2 summarises key current and future retail and leisure trends, therefore providing the context for this Study and how it can be used to guide plan-making. • Section 3 provides an abridged