BOOKS & ARTS The signifi cance of small things

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT CHANGE by Kerry Emanuel MIT Press, 2007 96pp $14.95

The world may be largely indifferent the presence of man, yet we have magnifi ed our infl uence to global scales — above all, through the recent increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

As a general rule, scientists should not be god punishing humanity for its sins. He persuaded that anthropogenic warming asked to review other scientists’ attempts is undoubtedly correct that these ideas is real. at popularization. We tend to focus on infl uence reactions to the issue of climate Th e aft erword essay by environmental details or on minor points of emphasis that change. Th e notion that the universe is policy experts Judith Layzer and William are close to our specialties, but completely indiff erent to humanity underlies many Moomaw on actions in the US to reduce miss the central point — whether the people’s initial scepticism that human climate change is a useful counterpoint to the communication leaves its consumers better actions could aff ect the climate at all. Th e science presented by Emanuel. It is certainly informed or more appreciative of the contrasting idea that our sinful actions better than the exhortation to buy compact science than before. will cause a calamity to befall us has a long fl uorescent light bulbs (sensible though Since scientist-reviewers are presumably history and fi nds echoes in elements of the that is!) that so oft en follows climate change quite well informed, they are singularly environmental movement. discussions these days. Th e essay may be a poorly placed to judge the impact of popular What Emanuel does not explicitly little optimistic, however, in anticipating that science on the lay public. Th is also explains discuss, though it could be seen as implicit the US could easily reduce emissions by three why most popularization eff orts from in his text, is that it is science that allows us percent per year, year aft er year, simply by scientists (my own included) fall fl at, and, to break out of these medieval worldviews increasing effi ciency and reducing energy use. perhaps, why Al Gore’s and come closer to seeing the universe as Th roughout the book, the villains of got more people to sit through a 90-minute it really is. It turns out that the world is the disinformation industry get a rightful presentation on climate than the eff orts of all indeed mostly indiff erent to our presence, lambasting. Now that climate change has of the world’s climate scientists combined. but there are a few key pressure points fi nally forced its way onto the agenda of Despite this, scientists are regularly that have allowed us to inadvertently the US Congress, there is less need to asked for such services, and in truth we magnify our infl uence to global scales. Th e use les refusards, as Emanuel evocatively are happy to oblige. Sometimes we fi nd increasing concentration of certain trace describes them, as political cover for great distortions of the science that need greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is chief inaction. Unfortunately, just as there are to be contradicted, but most oft en we fi nd among them. still a few people who deny the reality of genuine attempts to inform and educate. Th is philosophical discussion may have , we will be stuck with the Some are well written, and some not; some resonance in the rather public controversy climate change contrarians for many years well fact-checked, some not. We usually concerning the impact of climate change to come. As they become increasingly come to the conclusion that the latest on hurricanes, a fi eld in which Emanuel irrelevant, we can expect them to become off ering would help improve the public’s is a key player, though he has sensibly increasingly shrill. understanding of the problem if they could remained aloof from acrimonious debates. Emanuel’s book does not really live only be brought to read it. It is diffi cult to convince people who spend up to its title. We know much more about Kerry Emanuel’s What We Know About all day looking at the devastating dynamics climate change than can be squeezed into Climate Change, a short introduction to of individual storms that those dynamics a short review text. But as our friends and global warming by a well known climate could be aff ected by anything as puny as a colleagues are all too painfully aware, ‘tell us scientist, is an easy read and covers the basics few parts per million of carbon dioxide. But all you know’ is another request one should well. More interesting from my point of view the lesson here is that small things can have never make of a scientist. are the personal touches: a brief, if not fully a big infl uence given a long enough time. worked through, discussion of environmental Emanuel has a useful back story for this Published online: 12 December 2007 philosophies and how they shape views on book. He recalls being rather wary of Jim doi:10.1038/climate.2007.77 climate change; an account of Emanuel’s Hansen’s testimony to the US Congress in initial scepticism; and, of course, his personal 1988, in which Hansen famously declared GAVIN SCHMIDT contributions to the science. that he was “99 percent certain” that a Gavin Schmidt is a climate modeller at Emanuel starts by contrasting a human-induced global warming signal was NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. classical view of the universe as regular evident is his data. But with the ongoing Like all other climate scientists these days, and unchanging with a more capricious accumulation of a vast array of evidence, he is also working on a popular science book universe that is plagued by a vengeful Emanuel, like many others, has been about climate change.

12 reports climate change | VOL 2 | JANUARY 2008 | www.nature.com/reports/climatechange