Prices of Housing in Prague: a Bubble Or Natural Progress?
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Prices of Housing in Prague: A Bubble or Natural Progress? Thesis By David Štrouf Submitted in Partial fulfillment Of the Requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science In Business Administration State University of New York Empire State College 2018 Reader: David Starr-Glass Statutory Declaration / Čestné prohlášení I, David Štrouf, declare that the paper entitled: Prices of Housing in Prague: A Bubble or Natural Progression? was written by myself independently, using the sources and information listed in the list of references. I am aware that my work will be published in accordance with § 47b of Act No. 111/1998 Coll., On Higher Education Institutions, as amended, and in accordance with the valid publication guidelines for university graduate theses. Prohlašuji, že jsem tuto práci vypracoval/a samostatně s použitím uvedené literatury a zdrojů informací. Jsem vědom/a, že moje práce bude zveřejněna v souladu s § 47b zákona č. 111/1998 Sb., o vysokých školách ve znění pozdějších předpisů, a v souladu s platnou Směrnicí o zveřejňování vysokoškolských závěrečných prací. In Prague, 26.04.2018 David Štrouf Acknowledgement I would like to thank the faculty of the Empire State College and the University of New York in Prague for guiding me through the four years of my bachelor’s studies. I would also like to thank my mentor, professor David Starr-Glass, for his valuable insights he provided with during the writing process, and professor Tanweer Ali for consultations. Most importantly, I would like to thank my mother for her unwavering support and insight. Table of Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 9 2 Real estate and its function in the economy ......................................................... 12 2.1 Definition of Real Estate ......................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 Zoning plan. .................................................................................................................. 13 2.1.2 Infrastructure. ................................................................................................................ 14 2.1.3 Location. ....................................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Specifics of the Housing Market ............................................................................. 16 2.3 Housing as an Investment Decision ........................................................................ 17 2.3.1 Appreciation. ................................................................................................................. 18 2.3.2 Returns from cash flow. ................................................................................................ 18 2.4 Overview ................................................................................................................... 19 3 Supply and Demand Perspective ........................................................................... 21 3.1 Demand ..................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1 Demand determinants in real estate. .............................................................................. 21 3.2 Supply ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 Supply determinants in real estate. ................................................................................ 23 3.3 Implications .............................................................................................................. 24 4 Past Real Estate Crises and their Connection to Current Situation .................... 25 4.1 Japanese Asset Price Bubble 1986-1991 ................................................................ 27 4.1.1 Changes in financing. .................................................................................................... 28 4.1.2 Land ownership. ............................................................................................................ 28 4.1.3 Macroeconomic policies. .............................................................................................. 29 4.1.4 Assessment. ................................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Subprime Mortgage Crisis ...................................................................................... 32 4.2.1 Changes in the economic environment in early 2000s. ................................................. 33 4.2.2 Securitization of subprime mortgages. .......................................................................... 36 4.2.3 Assessment. ................................................................................................................... 38 4.3 Chinese Real Estate Bubble .................................................................................... 39 4.3.1 Investment availability and viability. ............................................................................ 39 4.3.2 Money supply and large growth. ................................................................................... 40 4.3.3 Access to land and vacancy rates. ................................................................................. 40 4.3.4 Credit and collateral. ..................................................................................................... 41 4.3.5 Assessment. ................................................................................................................... 42 4.4 Importance of Historical Context ........................................................................... 42 5 Historical Context of Prague’s Housing Market .................................................. 45 5.1 Current Situation ..................................................................................................... 45 5.2 Historical Context .................................................................................................... 46 5.2.1 Housing and development under the Communist regime.............................................. 46 5.2.2 Restitution and privatization in the early 1990s. ........................................................... 47 5.2.3 Real estate market through the new millennia............................................................... 49 6 Current Market Situation in Prague ..................................................................... 51 6.1 Increase in Prices ..................................................................................................... 52 6.2 Decreased Supply of Apartment Units .................................................................. 53 6.2.1 Land scarcity and increasing prices. .............................................................................. 55 6.2.2 Long project approval process. ..................................................................................... 55 6.2.3 Increased construction costs. ......................................................................................... 56 6.3 Increased Demand for Housing .............................................................................. 57 6.3.1 Good economic environment. ....................................................................................... 58 6.3.2 Low interest rates. ......................................................................................................... 58 6.4 Final Assessment ...................................................................................................... 59 7 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 61 8 References .............................................................................................................. 64 Abstract The real estate market in Prague has experienced a considerable increase of average prices of new apartment units. This increase started a discussion of whether a real estate bubble is inflating and waiting to burst. The goal of this work was to explore the causes behind the increase and look at the determinants of the trend. The problem was approached from the perspective of theory of supply and demand. A considerable part of the text is given to past real estate crises in the global economy. In order to analyze the current situation, it is important to collect information from the past and compare it to current events. The research indicates that the increase of prices is largely driven by the limitations that face real estate development companies. Lengthy approval process, scarcity of land, its high acquisition costs, and increasing construction costs are all significant factors affecting the industry. The findings imply that the situation is a result of natural progression of events in the market. The result confirms the opinion of most industry professionals who demand a more efficient approach from the governmental offices. 1 Introduction Real estate is closely connected to everyday life of most of the living population. Whether we look at home ownership only from the perspective of shelter, or as fulfilling a deeper role in our lives by providing individuals and families a sanctuary of safety, it can be safely assumed that owning a home is essential for each individual. Real estate ownership is closely associated with