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In-Depth Analysis of Malaysia International Trade Pattern View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by ExcelingTech96 Publishing Company (E-Journals) Int. J Sup. Chain. Mgt Vol. 6, No. 2, June 2017 In-Depth Analysis of Malaysia International Trade Pattern Abdul Aziz Lai Mohd Fikri Lai #1 , Imbarine Bujang #2, Alice Wong Su-Chu *3 # Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Sabah, Malaysia [email protected] [email protected] * Academy of Language Studies, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Sabah, Malaysia [email protected] Abstract — 2015 wave a challenging year for Malaysia trade is generally defined as the business activities in terms of economic as well as international trade going on between one country and the country due to several factors inter alia plummeting of global beyond its border. Commonly, these activities are crude oil prices, Ringgit depreciation and sluggish of split into two – the export and the import. Asian giant’s trading momentum suchlike People’s Republic of China [5]. Nevertheless, Malaysia trade Focusing on international trade, there is one still managed to push beyond the gauge projected by particular model that is very prominent to the World Bank and International Monetary Funds international traders. Borrowed and modified from (IMF) which recorded 5% growth than expected Newton’s law of universal gravitational by the 4.7%. Despite exceeding the projection by 0.3%, the actual trade level recorded slightly dropped pioneer [10], the Gravity Model of Trade explains compared to 2014, therefore it is a vital need for the trading volume by using the economic size of Malaysia to restructure the movement of export and trading countries and the distance between them. It import to ensure consistent performance in the is highlighted that the larger the distance between future. trading countries, the lesser the trade in terms of This study analyses top 60 Malaysia trading partners volume. The gravity model becomes a phenomenon worldwide by taking into consideration the economic in all over the world where researchers from as well as financial determinants of trade. Rather multiple countries applied it to their own home than just a cliché linear regression, this study differs country in the effort to prove the existence of this from others by segregating the top 60 partners into three level of segregation together with the prominent model. Apart from that, organization such as World gravity model of trade to identify the superior and Trade Organization (WTO) also conducted analysis profitable trading partners’ categories Malaysia on this model by pairing hundreds of countries should focus with. Lastly, the augmented gravity worldwide. This model is undeniably a solid model model of static panel analysis results shows mixed to explain the volume of trade between one country findings in which Malaysia trade with different and another country. segregation level provides different patterns and determinants of trade. This proves that instead of Malaysia, an open economy country located in the analysing trade as a whole, it is better to analyse it Southeast Asia, is one of the countries in which the based on specific group segregation to obtain a researchers - both locally and internationally – clearer pattern of trade. direct their attention to explain the bilateral trade Keywords — International Trade, Gravity Model, H-O using the gravity model. First examined by [2], it Theory, Linder’s Theory, Trade Partner’s Segregation, explored the relationship between Malaysia and 80 Static Panel Analysis trading partners as a whole without any segregation 1. Introduction in the sample chosen. Even with positive results suggesting that Malaysian trade obeys the gravity The fact that all developed and developing theory in general, it is still generating conventional countries is an open economy as reported by results that leave the future researchers with International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in 2015 question suchlike “does Malaysian export more proved how important international trade is. Being towards developed or developing countries” or an open economy, it means that one country is even “what are the factors affecting Malaysia trade actually interacting with another country in terms patterns”. Further studies on Malaysian trade only of business and even political matters. International focus on specific partnership such that Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and ___________________________ ___________________________________ International Journal of Supply Chain Management IJSCM, ISSN: 2050-7399 (Online), 2051-3771 (Print) Copyright © ExcelingTech Pub, UK (http://excelingtech.co.uk/) 97 Int. J Sup. Chain. Mgt Vol . 6, No. 2, June 2017 Association of Southeast A sia Nation (ASEAN). of gravity effect where distance affects total trade The needs to clarify the question drew the attention by increasing the total cost involving on Malaysian international trade activities by transportation. Still, looking at the top right corner looking at different perspective such that income of the scat ter plot, USA stands at second place classification of trading partners as well as valuing a bit less than 14% from Malaysia total development level of trading partners. trade with the distance near to 16 000 kilometers away. This scenario obviously disobeys the gravity 2. Background of Malaysia model of trade and raises a question of why it International Trade happens to be that way. Overall, Asian countries tend to be scattered on the left hand side of the Realizing the importance of international trade graph whereas the further continents such as towards open economy, it has become an essential Europe, Africa and Oceania countries are likely to attempt to understand the real trade phenomenon be scattered at the bottom part of the graph for Malaysia. The possibilities of g etting the wrong indicating less trade going on with Mal aysia. fact by just assuming and randomly choosing trade partners are likely to happen, thus it needs to be totally fended off. Since the world economy start ed to turn sid eways in 2015 with Ringgit losing its grip on exchange rate, small open eco nomy like Malaysia who highly depends on export to generate income needs a good and clear illustration of which export destination works the best. To clarify the confusion and contradiction, a look on the overview of Malaysia international trade would be best as well as on the importance of export for an Figure 2. The Line Graph of Malaysia Export, open economy. Import and Total Trade from the Year 2000 -2014 Figure 2 depicts the movement of Malaysian international trade activities starting from the year 2000 until 2014. Other than the major slump in 2009 which is believed to be due to the post effect of Global Financial Crisis in 2007 -2008, the rest indicates a solid performance and a positive balance of payment throughout the new millennium. It can be seen clearly that total trade increased by more than one-fol d from 2000 and 2014 and a steady increment from 2003 until 2008. Figure 1. The Scatter Graph of Malaysia Total Trade based on Countries All in all, large portion of Malaysia GDP is contributed by the export revenue from numerous Figure 1 depicts the total trade of Malaysia with 60 sectors within the economy. The reliance of partners’ worldwide measured in percentage of Malaysia on international trade jeopardizes her to trade on the vertical axis and distance from Kuala the fragile and unpredicted global economy. Thus, Lumpur (capital of Malaysia) to capital of it is important for the government to allocate destination country at the horizontal axis measure d resources and focus on sectors which does not in kilometers. The total trade percentage value is an easily collapse when things going south. Yet, at the average of 15 years starting from the year 2000 same time, the industry must be highly demanded until 2014. The scatter diagram is label ed with the international ly to ensure consistent growth in GDP abbreviation of the country’s name, showing that from time to time. Singapore leads in the total trade at almost 15% but this is not a surprise since Singapore is 3. The Gravity Model geographically located the closest to Malaysia and is connected by 1 kilometer bridge crossing the ocean. Somehow, it seems to display the presence 98 Int. J Sup. Chain. Mgt Vol. 6, No. 2, June 2017 It is diffused into economic theory of trade by [10] For estimation purpose, STATA 11 software is and [7] in an effort to study the effect of space and chosen due to accuracy and capability of the size towards trade. In the studies, [10] introduced software to deal with panel data apart from the built that the total trade between two countries can be in diagnostic testing such as the Breusch Pagan measured by their sizes (using GDP or GNP) and Lagranger Multiplier (BP-LM) Test. Furthermore, the distance between two economic centers of there are few advantages of using panel data gravity (measures from their capital city). The estimation such as it can capture relevant following gravity equation is the first version as relationship between countries over time and can proposed by [10]: monitor unobservable individual effect [8]. (Ĝĝ) In order to standardize and ensuring normal ͎$%/ = , ͝ ≠ ͞ (1) Ĝĝ distribution, the data is transformed into natural logarithm form as presented by the abbreviation of On the left hand side of equation 1, T represents the ln. Then, stationarity test was conducted to ensure total volume of trade between country i and country that the data are not following particular trend of j for a time period of t. On the right hand side, β movement to avoid unreasonable estimations. value is the simple constant value, the numerator is Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) unit root test was chosen the size for country i and country j with a which carries a hypothesis of; (1) Ho: Panels denominator of distance between country i and contain unit roots and (2) Ha: Panels are stationary country j.
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