An Information-Theoretic Metric Douglas Allaire1 of System Complexity With e-mail:
[email protected] Application to Engineering Qinxian He John Deyst System Design Karen Willcox System complexity is considered a key driver of the inability of current system design practices to at times not recognize performance, cost, and schedule risks as they emerge. Aerospace Computational Design Laboratory, We present here a definition of system complexity and a quantitative metric for measuring Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, that complexity based on information theory. We also derive sensitivity indices that indi- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, cate the fraction of complexity that can be reduced if more about certain factors of a sys- Cambridge, MA 02139 tem can become known. This information can be used as part of a resource allocation procedure aimed at reducing system complexity. Our methods incorporate Gaussian pro- cess emulators of expensive computer simulation models and account for both model inadequacy and code uncertainty. We demonstrate our methodology on a candidate design of an infantry fighting vehicle. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4007587] 1 Introduction methodology identifies the key contributors to system complexity and provides quantitative guidance for resource allocation deci- Over the years, engineering systems have become increasingly sions aimed at reducing system complexity. complex, with astronomical growth in the number of components We define system complexity as the potential for a system to and their interactions. With this rise in complexity comes a host exhibit unexpected behavior in the quantities of interest. A back- of new challenges, such as the adequacy of mathematical models ground discussion on complexity metrics, uncertainty sources in to predict system behavior, the expense and time to conduct complex systems, and related work presented in Sec.