MONTHLY REPORT ON FOOD SECURITY IN March-April 2001 May 7, 2001

FEWS NET/CHAD

SUMMARY

In the rural areas, fields are starting to be cleared in preparation for the rainfed crops. The other main activities are seasonal work and the tending of off-season crops. In the Sahelian zone, farmers were observed preparing the ground in several villages in southern Guéra Department (Melfi area). With regard to agro-pastoral activities, animal health is good, but pastures are becoming sparse in Department and northern Chari-.

During April, several rain-measuring stations in the south of the country and Guéra Department recorded the first rainfall. Elsewhere, the first rains have not yet fallen.

Food security continues to be a challenge for many households throughout the rice-producing areas in southern Chad, but specifically in certain cantons of Bédiondo Sous-préfecture, Mandoul Department. At present, no food aid is planned for these populations.

Distribution is nearly complete for the first tranche of free food aid planned by the WFP (2,290 MT) in Guéra, Ouaddaï, and Biltine Departments. Distribution of the second tranche will begin when supplies arrive from the Douala port in Cameroon.

April cereal prices were markedly higher than the average price over the last five years. This price increase can be attributed to low production, price speculation by traders, and administrative regulations prohibiting the transport of cereals from one area to another.

Various sources (travelers, truck drivers) are reporting that poor households are not able to buy cereals because of the price hikes for those commodities. Pearl millet is scarce in the Sahel, particularly on the Kanem, Ouaddaï, and Biltine markets. Fortunately, parents or neighbors periodically provide aid to these poor households, which helps protect their level of food security.

1. Rural Activities

In the Sudanian zone, farmers in several villages of East Logone Department have started clearing fields to prepare seedbeds. Elsewhere, including in the Sahelian zone, seasonal work is under way, such as the tending of off-season crops and petty trade. In addition, in Melfi Sous-préfecture in southern Guéra, the ground is being worked to prepare seedbeds.

9 Meanwhile, veterinary workers have not reported any animal epidemics. According to an official at the Directorate for Pastoral Organization (DOP), many herders are requesting authorization to buy oilcakes made from cottonseed. The heavy demand for this livestock feed indicates that pasture areas are becoming sparse in certain areas of Kanem and northern Chari-Baguirmi (Massakory and Mao Sous- préfectures).

2. Rainfall

In April, several rain-measuring stations in the south of the country and Guéra Department recorded the first rainfall. Elsewhere, the first rainfall was not detected.

3. Food Security

3.1. Monitoring of Conditions

In a typical year, the hungry period (soudure) generally begins in June. During this time, farming households have few food reserves on hand. The severity of the hungry period in any given year depends on production during the growing season.

Households that have run out of millet or sorghum usually try to make ends meet by collecting edible foods growing wild, such as uncultivated cereals, fruits, and leaves.

Households, in particular the poorest households, are expected to have great difficulty meeting their food needs this year due to the poor cereals harvest and scarcity of wild foods.

In the south, as September approaches, the hungry period will draw to a close as the earliest crops are harvested – maize grown near the house compound and groundnuts. Farther north, the hungry period will end toward the latter part of the month, when wild fonio is gathered and milk-producing animals begin lactating.

The people of the Sahel continue to devise coping strategies to deal with food insecurity (artisanal activities, gathering of wild leaves and fruits, seasonal work, etc.) while waiting for the arrival of food aid requested by the government with the help of its partners.

According to newspaper accounts, fires, whipped up by harmattan winds, destroyed more than 2,000 sacks of millet in the village of Sarafkoura and another in Oufoun, both in the Sahelian zone. Tragically, 108 families were left without food. The population in Angatar had reserves of just 100 kg of absabé (a type of wild cereal similar to fonio); those reserves were destroyed by fire.

3.2. Conditions in Bédiondo Sous-Préfecture (Mandoul Department)

Rice-producing areas in several of Bédiondo’s cantons had a poor harvest last season (2000/01). In September, the rains came to an abrupt halt in those areas. By October, Bédiondo’s farmers knew the harvest would be poor because the plants had dried out due to the lack of rain. Rice-growers in this area rely exclusively on rainwater; they have no irrigation system. Almost no rice was harvested.

10 According to the National Rural Development Office (ONDR) in Bédiondo, the poorest households are having trouble meeting their daily food needs. This observation is substantiated by price data issued by Market Information System (SIM) during the last two weeks of April.

At present, some households in Bédiondo Sous-préfecture are surviving on mangos, since wild fruits are in season. Mangos usually ripen from mid-March to mid-May, and most households consume them. Over the next two months, manual labor will begin in the fields, which will make conditions in the near future difficult.

During the January 2001 mission, FEWS NET classified several cantons in Bédiondo Sous-préfecture as highly food insecure, the condition where the population cannot meet its food needs during a given consumption period. The population will be forced to reduce its consumption and sell off its tools of production, which in turn will affect its future food security.

According to the ONDR, Bedogo Village 1 and 2, located a few kilometers from Bédiondo, and several other villages in Goundi Canton are the most food insecure.

3.3. Summary of Food Aid

In the Sahelian zone, distribution of the World Food Programs first allotment of free food aid, which was conducted over the course of two months, is nearly finished in Guéra, Ouaddaï, and Biltine Departments. The second allotment is expected to be in position in May. According to the WFP, Chad will be receiving food aid over the coming months to cover all of the areas in this part of the country targeted as highly food insecure.

Table 1. Summary of Food Aid

Source Amount of Aid Contribution of 7,000 MT of cereals. This grant will enable the WFP to European Union implement part of it program to provide 27,000 MT of emergency food aid to the Sahelian zone. The WFP will receive 5,000 MT of cereals, consisting of 2,500 MT of USA maize and 2,500 MT of maize groats, for free distribution to food- insecure populations. 2,500 MT of cereals will be bought and distributed to food-insecure French Cooperation populations in Kanem and Lake Departments. 600 MT of maize will be bought for target populations in Lake Government of Chad Department, principally in N'Gouri Sous-préfecture. Sources: Ministry of Agriculture, WFP, SODELAC

All of the donors agree on the areas to be targeted in the Sahel.

4. Market Conditions

4.1. Cereal Markets

According to cereal wholesalers at the N'Djaména market, cereal prices (millet and sorghum) are on an upswing because the hungry period is approaching (Table 2).

11 Since February, prices for pearl millet have increased the most — 106 percent in Abéché, 47 percent in Moundou, 57 percent in Sarh, and 37 percent in N’Djaména as of the last two weeks of April.

Cereal prices continued to climb from March to April. Pearl millet prices increased on three of the four main markets, rising by 11 percent in Abéché (Sahelian zone), 5 percent in Moundou (Sudanian zone), and 29 percent in Sarh (Sudanian zone). The sharp spike in millet prices on the Sarh market can be explained partly by the poor harvest and, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, partly by large sales in surplus-producing areas during the Easter season. Because of the sudden surge in prices, the hungry period is likely to be difficult for the poorest populations in certain cantons, such as ones in Bédiondo Sous-préfecture.

A production decrease is not the only factor responsible for higher millet prices on the Abéché market. Another factor is that delegations from a number of political parties have come to Abéché, the “capital of the northern region,” on account of the May 20 presidential election. Moreover, there is heavy demand for millet from Abéché to feed the BET zones (northern part of the country), including strong demand for provisions required by additional security forces as the elections near. If no one presidential candidate wins a majority of the vote and a run-off election becomes necessary, prices in Abéché will probably not come down before mid-June.

Table 2. Millet Prices (in CFA Francs/Kg) in Chad’s Main Markets September 2000 - April 2001

Sudanian Zone Sahelian Zone Month Moundou Sarh N'Djaména Abéché September 2000 100 108 160 220 October 100 120 160 210 November 160 160 200 220 December 120 130 200 220 January 2001 130 120 200 220 February 150 140 190 224 March 210 170 260 280 April 220 220 260 310 Source: SIM

The spike in millet prices in Abéché has temporarily forced some people to replace it with sorghum in their diet. Millet and sorghum are often substituted for one another, which is astonishing because there is usually a price difference of 60 to 70 CFA francs (except in February, when the price disparity leveled out).

On the three other main markets, wholesalers are engaged in price speculation as the hungry period approaches; this has caused an increase in millet prices.

12 Table 3. Sorghum Prices (in CFA Francs/Kg) in Chad’s Main Markets September 2000 - April 2001

Sudanian zone Sahelian zone Month Moundou Sarh N'Djaména Abéché September 2000 90 90 130 160 October 90 100 130 150 November 120 100 160 180 December 100 90 160 170 January 2001 100 90 160 170 February 120 120 180 200 March 160 150 240 180 April 150 160 230 244 Source: SIM

Compared withMarch, sorghum prices in the second half of April 2001 decreased by 4 percent in N’Djaména and 6 percent in Moundou; there was a slight increase of 7 percent in Sarh and a sharp spike of 36 percent in Abéché (Table 3). The drop in sorghum prices in Moundou between March and April is due in part to administrative regulations governing the transport of sorghum outside the area. Administrative officials have barred the transport of cereals out of the area to other markets.

4.2. Comparison of Sorghum and Millet Prices in Moundou and Abéché: September 2000-April 2001

Figures 1 and 2 below show trends in millet and sorghum prices for the most recent pre-harvest period through the present.

Figure 1. Comparison of Sorghum and Millet Prices in Moundou and Abéché: September 2000 – April 2001 (CFA Francs/kg)

350 350 Sorghum Sorghum 300 300 Millet Millet 250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2001 2001 Moundou Abéché FEWS NET/Chad; Source: SIM

13 Figure 1 depicts changes in millet and sorghum prices between September 2000 and April 2001 for Moundou, a market in the Sudanian zone, and Abéché, a market in the Sahelian zone. The same scale is used in both bar charts to allow for direct comparison.

Several observations are readily apparent from the graph. First, millet prices in both of these markets were sharply higher in the last two weeks of April than the average price over the past seven months (an increase of 58 percent in Abéché and 67 percent in Moundou).

Second, although millet and sorghum prices rose in both areas, the increase was higher in the Sahelian zone. In Moundou, millet and sorghum are now selling at prices they had fetched on the Abéché market several months ago.

Third, in both markets, sorghum cost significantly less than millet. In certain months, sorghum was far less expensive than millet, which gave poor consumers a lower-cost alternative with the same nutritional value. This observation highlights the critical need to monitor the prices of sorghum and other commodities in addition to millet prices.

To put these prices into an historical context, Figure 2 uses the same markets, Moundou and Abéché, and compares millet and sorghum prices as of mid-April 2001 with April 2000 prices and the average April price during the five-year period from 1995 to 1999.

Figure 2. Comparison of Millet and Sorghum Prices in Moundou and Abéché in April: 1995-99 Average, 2000 and 2001 Millet Sorghum

1995-99 350 350 1995-99 2000 2000 2001 2001 300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0 Abéché Moundou Abéché Moundou

FEWS NET/Chad; Source: SIM

In Figure 2, the bar chart on the left shows that millet prices in the Sudanian zone (Moundou) are considerably higher this year than last year (a 175 percent increase). This can be explained by the good harvest for millet in 1999/2000. Compared with the average price for millet between 1995 and 1999, prices in April 2001 increased an average of 83 percent. Higher millet prices in the Sudanian zone were not matched by an increase in cotton prices. This could affect the market for food in the cotton-producing region, where most of the farming households grow cotton.

Likewise, in the Sahelian zone (Abéché), millet prices rose significantly this year over last year (a 158 percent increase). Millet prices for April 2001 are higher than the historical average for the period from 1995 to 1999 (a 149 percent increase). This hike in the price of millet stems from administrative

14 regulations concerning the transport of cereals to areas with deficits; by creating an artificial shortfall, the regulations are exacerbating food insecurity.

The bar chart on the right of Figure 2 shows that sorghum prices in the Sudanian zone have risen over the previous year as much as millet prices have (150 percent); the reason is that 1999/2000 had a good millet harvest. The average sorghum price for April 2001 is up 39 percent over the average price from 1995 to 1999 (millet is 83 percent higher). This rise in sorghum prices in the Sudanian zone can be explained by the poor distribution of rainfall and administrative regulations in certain areas.

In the Sahelian zone, sorghum prices are much higher this year than last year (up 205 percent). April 2001 sorghum prices far exceed the average for 1995-1999 (up 219 percent).

4.3. Onion Markets

As the hungry period approaches, onion prices are generally expected to rise. In N'Djamena, however, prices remained stable between March and April (113 CFA francs/kg) because onions were imported from Cameroon and Binder (Mayo-Kebbi Department).

Figure 3. Onion Price Trends in the Main Markets in Chad: September 2000 - April 2001

400

Moundou 350 Sarh 300 N'Djaména Abéché 250

200

150 CFA Francs per kg per Francs CFA 100

50

0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2001 Feb Mar Apr

FEWS NET/Chad Source: SIM

In Abéché, prices rose slightly between March and April (10 percent) for two reasons: 3) The presidential race launched in mid-April has attracted a number of political delegations, which increased the demand for onions 4) Abéché, which was the top-producing area for onions, has had difficulty selling its crop because onion farming was introduced in Chari-Baguirmi (a major center of consumption), and onions are being imported from Binder and Cameroon.

15 Increased onion farming in Binder brought down onion prices in Moundou by 13 percent from March to April.

After onion prices declined from February to March, they increased in April by 9 percent in Abéché and 10 percent in Sarh. The rise in Abéché’s onion prices is due to the large number of delegations representing the various political parties in the presidential campaign. Onion exports to the Central African Republic were a principal reason for Sahr’s price increase.

Figure 3 shows the relationship between April’s onion prices and the previous seven months. The price of onions dropped significantly in the key markets (from 37 percent to 44 percent). Sources offer two explanations for this decrease: increased onion farming in the production areas (Ouaddaï and Moussoro) and the development of this crop in the areas of Cameroon bordering on Chad (in the case of Binder).

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