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Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines

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Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 919–939, 2015 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/3/919/2015/ doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-919-2015 NHESSD © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 3, 919–939, 2015 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth Identification of System Sciences (NHESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in NHESS if available. storm surge vulnerable areas in Identification of storm surge vulnerable the Philippines areas in the Philippines through the J. P. Lapidez et al. simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced Title Page storm surge levels over historical storm Abstract Introduction tracks Conclusions References Tables Figures J. P. Lapidez1, J. Tablazon1, L. Dasallas1, L. A. Gonzalo1, K. M. Cabacaba1, M. M. A. Ramos1, J. K. Suarez1, J. Santiago1, A. M. F. Lagmay1,2, and V. Malano3 J I 1Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, Quezon City, Philippines J I 2National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines-Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines Back Close 3Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines Full Screen / Esc Received: 1 October 2014 – Accepted: 7 January 2015 – Published: 2 February 2015 Printer-friendly Version Correspondence to: J. P. Lapidez ([email protected]) Interactive Discussion Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 919 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract NHESSD Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 7 Novem- ber 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to 3, 919–939, 2015 the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported 5 in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled Identification of researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), storm surge the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology vulnerable areas in (DOST), Government of the Philippines, to undertake a study to determine the vulner- the Philippines ability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as 10 those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge J. P. Lapidez et al. height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as basis for Title Page choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solu- Abstract Introduction 15 tions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for Conclusions References identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other Tables Figures critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme. J I J I 20 1 Introduction Back Close The water level oscillations, over and above the predicted astronomical tides in coastal Full Screen / Esc or inland bodies of water, generated by the wind forcings from an atmospheric weather system are called storm surges (Murty, 1999). The specific factors affecting the height Printer-friendly Version of the generated surge are the following: the storm’s central pressure, wind intensity, Interactive Discussion 25 translational forward speed, storm radius, storm approach angle, coastline geometry, and the local bathymetry (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National 920 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, 2014). The resulting surging flood in- duced by storm surge is a major cause of casualties and damages to coastal re- NHESSD gions. The destructive elements produced by these surges lead scientists from all over 3, 919–939, 2015 the world to conduct research into storm surge risk assessments (Wu et al., 2002; 5 Brown et al., 2007; Hallegatte et al., 2011; Rygel et al., 2006). The Philippines, with its 36 289 km of coastline, is highly susceptible to the ill-effects of weather hazards such Identification of as storm surges (Yumul Jr. et al., 2011). The country is also included in the regions that storm surge are most vulnerable to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (Nicholls et al., 1999). Its vulnerable areas in low lying islands, long stretches of coastal areas, concave and gently sloping coastlines the Philippines 10 contribute to the enhancement of storm surge. The country’s geographical location also increases its exposure to storm surge hazard – it lies in the south western part of the J. P. Lapidez et al. Northwest Pacific basin which is considered to be the most active ocean basin, gener- ating an average of 26 tropical cyclones per year (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Title Page Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 2000). An av- 15 erage of 20 typhoons enter PAR annually, 9 of which makes landfall passing through Abstract Introduction the southern part of Luzon island and eastern part of the Visayan islands. Conclusions References Typhoon Haiyan was the 25th typhoon that entered the Philippine area of respon- sibility (PAR) in 2013. It started as a low pressure region in the West Pacific Ocean Tables Figures early on the 2 November. Favorable environmental conditions prompted the atmo- 20 spheric disturbance to undergo rapid intensification, upgrading the typhoon to category J I 5 on 7 November 2013 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, 2013). Haiyan, with an estimated 10 min maximum sustained J I −1 winds of 235 km h (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2014) is the strongest typhoon to Back Close make landfall in the country in recorded history. The intense wind, torrential rainfall Full Screen / Esc 25 and several-meter-high storm surge generated by the typhoon, resulted in widespread devastation in the central Philippines. This extreme event emphasized the necessity Printer-friendly Version to forecast storm surge height and inundation in the Philippine coastal regions. The study’s objective is to identify the areas in the Philippines that are most susceptible to Interactive Discussion extreme storm surges. The maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal 921 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | locality is calculated by running multiple storm surge simulations using the intensity of Haiyan and tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. This pro- NHESSD vided an idea of the probable extent of damage if a Haiyan-intensity storm hit a certain 3, 919–939, 2015 area. Once the vulnerable coastal areas are identified, appropriate site-specific so- 5 lutions to storm surge hazards can be studied to produce scientific evidence to guide management strategies. Outputs are also intended to enable the development of a risk- Identification of sensitive land use plan to identify appropriate areas for residential buildings, evacuation storm surge sites and other critical facilities. Inundation maps and hazard maps based on the worst vulnerable areas in case scenario for every area can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and the Philippines 10 evacuation scheme, to improve the regions resilience to typhoon driven storm surges. J. P. Lapidez et al. 2 Methodology Title Page The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) keeps an archive of typhoon best track data. These data are publicly available and can be downloaded from their website: http: Abstract Introduction //www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html. A best track Conclusions References 15 data text file contains information about all typhoons formed in the North western pa- cific basin for a specific year. The pertinent information in the best track data that are Tables Figures essential to the storm surge simulation are the following: the location of the typhoon center throughout its lifetime, the central pressure and maximum sustained wind speed J I values, and the radii to 50 and 30 knot winds. For this research, all the available best J I 20 track data files which covers the year 1951 to 2013 were downloaded. For each ty- Back Close phoon, the information about the location of its center from the time of formation until the time of dissipation were extracted and were used as the basis of the tracks of the Full Screen / Esc hypothetical typhoons used in the storm surge simulations. The best track data of JMA from 1951 to 2013 was cross-referenced to the list of ty- Printer-friendly Version 25 phoons that entered PAR as recorded by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Interactive Discussion Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Only the typhoon tracks that crossed the PAR were used in the study. 922 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Data about Typhoon Haiyan were taken from the 2013 best track data of the Japan Meteorological Agency – http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ NHESSD rsmc-hp-pub-eg/Besttracks/bst2013.txt. This includes data pertaining to the central 3, 919–939, 2015 pressure, maximum sustained wind speed values, and the radii to 50 and 30 knot winds 5 of Typhoon Haiyan. Hypothetical typhoons were created using the tracks of the selected typhoons and Identification of the central pressure, maximum sustained wind speed values, and radii to the 50 knot storm surge and 30 knot winds of Haiyan. A total of 861 hypothetical typhoons were generated for vulnerable areas in this study. the Philippines 10 Storm surge simulations for the 861 hypothetical typhoons were generated using the JMA Storm Surge Model.
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