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Italy's Economy in the Euro Zone Crisis and Monti's Reform Agenda

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Italy's Economy in the Euro Zone Crisis and Monti's Reform Agenda Working Paper Research Division EU Integration Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs © Elisa Cencig* Italy’s economy in the euro zone crisis and Monti’s reform agenda *Elisa Cencig was an intern in the Research Division EU Integration in Spring 2012 SWP Working Papers are online publications of SWP’s research divisions which have not been formally reviewed by the Institute. Please do not cite them without the permission of the authors or editors. Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Working Paper FG 1, 2012/ 05, September 2012 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 SWP Berlin www.swp-berlin.org Table of Contents Introduction 3 1. The current economic situation 4 1.1. Growth performance and perspectives 5 1.2. Competitiveness and structural reform needs 7 1.3. Labour market and other structural weaknesses 9 1.4. Italy in the sovereign debt crisis 12 1.4.1. Budgetary policies and situation of public finances 12 1.4.2. Financial markets’ reactions 16 2. Key characteristics of the Italian economy 18 2.1. Structural weaknesses 18 2.2. The origins of Italy’s high public debt and the inception of the common currency 21 2.3. The 1990s: a lost decade for growth 22 2.4. Major bottlenecks to growth 24 3. The political crisis in 2011 26 3.1. A hectic semester: Italy on the verge of disaster 26 3.2. The establishment of Mario Monti’s government 29 4. Mario Monti’s reform agenda 32 4.1. An overview 32 4.2. “Salva Italia”: fiscal policy and pension system reform 33 4.3. “Cresci Italia”: liberalization and service sector reform 38 4.4. “Semplifica Italia”: simplification and fiscal reform 40 4.5. The labour market reform 41 4.6. Spending review and “Decreto Sviluppo” 46 5. Final remarks 47 5.1. Achievements and outlook for implementation 47 5.2. The challenges ahead 49 5.3. Euro zone governance 51 List of figures and info boxes Figure 1: Real GDP growth 2008-2011 Figure 2: Italy’s competitiveness gap: harmonised competitiveness indicators Figure 3: Unit labour costs Figure 4: Italian unemployment rates in comparison: 2008-2011 Figure 5: Italian employment rates in comparison: 2008-2011 Figure 6: General government debt (in percent of GDP) Figure 7: Budget balance (in percent of GDP) Figure 8: Italy 10-year bond: interest rate and spread over German bund Table 1: Main government finance indicators (in percent of GDP) Info Box 1: Italy’s political parties Info Box 2: Technocratic governments in Italy Info Box 3: Pension system reform Info Box 4: The role of trade unions in Italy Introduction Introduction Italy’s economic and political situation recently gained widespread attention in the midst of the sovereign debt crisis. Since 2011, the country, which faces substantial refinancing needs, experienced a marked increase of the BTP-Bund spreads on financial markets1 and a substantial down- grade of its credit worthiness. Italy as the euro area’s third largest econ- omy2 is generally seen as being too large to be supported by the current euro area rescue mechanisms. A default of Italy would meanwhile have disastrous contagion effects on the rest of the euro area. Italy is the make- it-or-break-it issue for the euro zone which can put the survival of the common currency at risk. After former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was forced to resign in November 2011, former EU-Commissioner Mario Monti took the office with a technocratic government, backed by broad political and popular support. He set out a broad reform agenda with the objective to address the country’s troubled public finances and structural problems of the economy. Although the general public, most Italian political parties and international leaders3 have welcomed the reform agenda, Italy’s economic and financial recovery is no done deal and Monti’s mandate is due to expire in April 2013. The labour market reform and opposition by the workers’ unions and general public caused a substantial albeit temporary fall in Prime Minister Monti’s approval rates, with high unemployment and falling internal demand causing serious pain to the population. Notwithstanding the high pace of the reforms, in the second quarter of 2012 the worsening of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and continuing uncertainty over the EU governments’ and ECB role increased financial markets pressures4. Markets have welcomed the ECB’s announcement of 1 The BTP-Bund spread reached its ever highest peak of 553 basis points on 9 November 2011, short before the resignation of Berlusconi’s government. Italian 10-year BTPs (Buoni Poliennali del Tesoro or Multiannual Treasure Bonds) correspondingly reached a peak of 7,057 percent in interest rate. The yield later went under 300 bps, but it markedly rose again over 500 basis points during July 2012. Source: Bloomberg. 2 With a nominal GDP of 1.550,264 billion Euro Italy was in 2010 the third largest econ- omy in the euro area, after Germany (2.462,100 bn u) and France (1.917,190 bn u). Source: Eurostat. 3 See Michael Schuman, The most important man in Europe. Mario Monti is trying to put Italy and its neighbors back from the economic brink(Time, February 20, 2012); Christian Wulff, “Berlino e Roma partner forti per creare un’Europa competitiva” (Corriere della Sera, February 12, 2012), http://archiviostorico.corriere.it /2012/febbraio/12/Berlino_Roma_partner_forti_per_co_8_120212019.shtml (accessed September 27, 2012). 4 Despite the substantive reform process the credit rating agency Moody’s decided to downgrade Italy’s government debt from A2 to A3, with a negative outlook, on 13th February 2012. The reasons adduced to motivate this decision are the “uncertainty over the prospects for institutional reform in the euro area, the challenges facing Italy's public finances and the significant risk that Italy's government may not achieve its consolida- tion targets”. Moody’s, Rating Action: Moody’s adjusts ratings of 9 European sovereigns to capture SWP-Berlin September 2012 3 The current economic situation the Outright Market Transactions Programme, but its details and effects are still undefined. Other potential obstacles are traditional contrasts between the party leaders who are currently supporting Monti’s govern- ment, as the consensus behind his parliamentary majority could turn out to be pretty fragile. Italy’s inherently fragmented party system could revive political bargaining and thus put the implementation of the reforms at stake. In addition, even successfully adopted reforms take time to fully display their effects, and structural supply-side adjustments put social cohesion and economic recovery at stake in times of recession as it is the case right now5. This paper outlines Italy’s economic situation in the midst of the cur- rent crisis and the challenges ahead and discusses the current govern- ment’s reform agenda. It argues that the technocratic government led by Monti is undertaking comprehensive reforms which address a wide range of structural weaknesses, yet economic recession and political factors both at a national and European level make the outlook all but safe. In addi- tion, a number of issues remain high on the agenda, notably the weakness of the justice system, inefficiency in PA and corruption, which hinder Italy’s economic growth. Although something has been done to deal with them, more courage is needed to address these weakening factors. The first chapter gives an overview of the evolution of the financial and economic crisis from its very inception in 2008 with the subprime crisis in the US. The second chapter deals with the current situation of Italy’s economy, including a discussion of the effects of the economic and financial crisis. The third chapter investigates the structural characteris- tics, traditional problems and current challenges of Italy’s economy. The fourth chapter turns to the political situation, providing a concise summary of the dynamics and drivers of the political crisis leading to the government change in November 2011. The following chapter depicts Monti’s fiscal and economic policy, which was inaugurated by harsh austerity measures in December 2011, accompanied by a reform of the pension system and liberalization measures in January 2012. The reform of the labour market and the spending review approved in July 2012 will also be discussed. The last chapter draws conclusions and highlights the challenges ahead. 1. The current economic situation Italy was among those euro area countries which have been particularly struck by the financial and economic crisis in 2008/9. In 2010, Italy became downside risks, Preass release (February 13, 2012), http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-adjusts-ratings-of-9-European-sovereigns-to- capture-downside--PR_237716 (accessed September 27, 2012). 5 Istat certified that the country is experiencing the fourth quarter of negative growth (- 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2011, amounting from a total of -2.5 percent from the second quarter of 2011). Stima preliminare del PIL, II trimestre 2012 (Istat, August 7, 2012), http://www.istat.it/it/archi vio/68720 (accessed September 27, 2012). SWP-Berlin September 2012 4 The current economic situation one of the Member States which are seen as candidates for a sovereign debt crisis, as it saw a marked rise in its sovereign bond yields. Financial markets pressures are intertwined with structural economic problems which have long affected the country. 1.1. Growth performance and perspectives Italy’s growth prospects are currently rather dismal, as the country officially re-entered recession in the second half of 2011. The following figure shows real GDP growth rates since the inception of the crisis, with positive figures only between the beginning of 2010 and mid-2011.
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