Passenger Analysis

TRANSPORTATION

Report

Evaluation of the E & N Railway Corridor: Passenger Analysis

Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 5

2. REVIEW OF PEER GROUP TRANSIT SYSTEMS ...... 7 2.1 Review of Peer Group Commuter Rail Systems 7 San Diego Coaster 8 San Diego Sprinter 9 San Jose Altamont Commuter Express 10 Dallas Trinity Railway Express 11 West Coast Express 12 Ottawa O-Train 13 Seattle Sounder 14 Music City Star (Nashville) 15 2.2 Review of Peer Group Intercity Rail Systems 17 Amtrak Cascades 17 Ontario Northlander 18 Coast Starlight 19 2.3 Summary & Implications of Peer Systems 19

3. Current Travel Markets ...... 20 3.1 Commuter Rail Travel Market 20 Statistics Canada Data 20 CRD 2006 Travel Survey Report 21 3.2 Intercity Rail Travel Market 22 VIA Victoria-Courtenay Train 22 Traffic Volume Data 22

I IBI GROUP REPORT

Table of Contents (continued)

4. DIRECT DEMAND MODEL APPLICATION ...... 24 4.1 Methodology 24 Commuter Rail Model 24 Intercity Rail Model 29 4.2 Population & Employment Inputs 33 4.3 Scenario Definition 36 Commuter Rail Model 36 Intercity Rail Model 37

5. MODEL RESULTS AND SUMMARY ...... 38 5.1 Commuter Rail Results 38 5.2 Intercity Rail Results 38

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1.1 - E & N Railway Corridor, Vancouver Island ...... 6 Exhibit 3-1: CRD Travel Survey Travel Patterns ...... 21 Exhibit 3-2: VIA Train Schedule ...... 22 Exhibit 3-3: Map of Traffic Screenline Locations ...... 23 Exhibit 3-4: Vehicle Counts (Daily Two-Way Traffic), 2006 ...... 23 Exhibit 4-1: Commuter Rail Population Catchment Areas ...... 27 Exhibit 4-2: Commuter Rail Employment Catchment Areas ...... 28 Exhibit 4-3: Intercity Catchment areas ...... 33

List of Tables

Table E.1 - Intercity Passenger Rail Ridership Estimates ...... 2 Table E.2 - Commuter Rail Service Concepts and Passenger Forecasts ...... 3 Table 2-1: Commuter Rail Peer Group Operating Data ...... 16 Table 3-1: West Shore Trips ...... 20 Table 4-1: AM Peak Period Base Trip Rates per Person & Level-of-Service Adjustment Factors ...... 26 Table 4-2: AM Peak Period Base Trip Rates per Job & Level-of-Service Adjustment Factors ...... 28 Table 4-3: Estimated Intercity Rail Trip Rates and Model Performance ...... 30 Table 4-4: Intercity Daily Trip Rate Adjustment ...... 31 Table 4-5: 2006 & 2026 Population & Employment by Catchment Area for Commuter Rail ...... 34 Table 4-6: 2006 & 2026 Population by Catchment Area for Intercity Rail ...... 35 Table 4-7: 2026 Commuter Rail Scenario Service Assumptions ...... 36 Table 4-8: 2026 Intercity Rail Scenario Service Assumptions ...... 37 Table 5-1: 2026 Commuter Rail Scenario Results ...... 38 Table 5-2: 2026 Intercity Rail Scenario Results ...... 39

II IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

Executive Summary This Working Paper presents the Passenger Analysis undertaken as part of the Evaluation of the E & N Railway1 Corridor on Vancouver Island. The assessment was carried out to determine the potential for intercity passenger or commuter rail service could operate within the corridor.

The current passenger rail service along the corridor is limited to one daily train with one or two cars running north from Victoria in the morning and returning from Courtenay in the afternoon, carrying nearly 40,000 passengers per year. This is far below the potential capacity of the rail corridor, especially since it is only a single train per direction operating against the peak travel direction.

In parallel with this study, BC Transit in Victoria examined the potential for a short-haul commuter rail type service between Langford and Victoria, in the most densely populated segment of the corridor, one that comes with its own challenges such as grade crossings and speed restrictions. Nevertheless, such a service would increase passenger use of the corridor if the right operating conditions could be provided through corridor improvements and construction of passenger stations.

This study considered enhancements to both the intercity service and possible implementation of commuter rail, focusing first on ridership potential from several service concepts. A high-level description of results follows.

Intercity Passenger Train Service

The current VIA operation serves tourist and day-trip demands primarily originating in Victoria, as well as a limited number of residents prepared to stay overnight in Victoria. The train schedule is not suited to daytime business or appointments in Victoria, since the train leaves Victoria at approximately 8 a.m. and returns at 6 p.m. The current Budd railway cars date back over 50 years, lack wheelchair accessibility, and do not accommodate passengers with bicycles well. There are currently 40,000 annual passengers, which has increased over recent years.

Data relating to recent boarding activities on the VIA service was used as a starting point for estimating future intercity passenger ridership associated with a range of possible service levels. A model was calibrated against current ridership and then applied to potential types of service and future population estimates. Catchment areas around important stations were defined, assuming that the focus would be on locations with significant boarding activity and/or station facilities as opposed to several flag stops used by only a handful of passengers per year.

An investigation of service options and ridership potential focused on enhancing the service to match other types of demand and accommodate the growing population. Overall population growth is approximately 25% [Stats BC, PEOPLE 33] along the corridor from 2006-26.

Table E.1 summarizes the 2026 horizon year ridership estimates for the following service scenarios:

1 Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway.

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1. Base Scenario. The base scenario is equivalent to the existing service with one train leaving Victoria in the morning and returning from Courtenay in the evening. This is an off- peak service oriented mostly to tourists.

2. Moderate Scenario. The moderate scenario includes an additional train leaving Nanaimo in the morning inbound to Victoria, which continues on and does the full route, returning to Nanaimo in the evening. This adds an important intercity ‘commute’ option.

3. Aggressive Scenario. The aggressive scenario builds on the moderate scenario, and includes a third train leaving Nanaimo northbound and cycling through the corridor.

4. Port Alberni Scenario. The Port Alberni scenario is similar to the moderate scenario except one train operates a round trip between Port Alberni and Victoria while the other train operates along the Courtenay-Nanaimo-Victoria axis of service.

5. TOD Scenario. The TOD scenario is based on the moderate scenario, and assumes population increases are higher than average within the primary catchment area of the stations, with less development farther away from the stations. This produces somewhat higher potential ridership than the moderate scenario.

Table E.1 - Intercity Passenger Rail Ridership Estimates

Port 2006 Avg. 2026 Base Moderate Aggressive TOD/Mod Alberni Station Ons Brdgs Brdgs Brdgs Brdgs Brdgs Victoria 115 130 460 585 585 545 Langford 8 10 40 50 50 45 Shawnigan 2 5 5 10 10 10 Duncan 12 15 55 70 70 70 Chemainus 9 10 40 50 50 50 Ladysmith 3 5 15 20 20 20 Nanaimo 25 30 115 150 150 130 Parksville 11 15 40 65 65 45 Qualicum Beach 18 25 60 110 85 75 Buckley Bay 2 5 5 10 10 5 Courtenay 64 85 225 395 310 270 Port Alberni 0 - - - 50 - Peak Season Daily 268 335 1,060 1,515 1,455 1,265 Annual 40,200 50,000 159,000 227,000 218,000 190,000

Recent ridership amounts to 40,000 passengers a year with large concentrations near the ends due to tourists making Victoria-Courtenay round trips. If this simply grew with the population but service was not improved, a low-end ridership of 50,000 is quite achievable (Base Scenario #1). By tapping into the real travel market (personal and other business trips into Victoria and Nanaimo), the enhanced services have potential ridership in the range of 159,000 to 227,000 per year in 2026 or more.

Longer term potential (e.g. 50 years) depends on the extent of linkages between cities and towns in the corridor. If rail service were maintained and expanded over several decades this could tap into rising median age and higher propensity to ride public forms of transportation. Rail volumes could be 50% - 100% higher in the long term, driven by population increases as well as higher environmental costs of private transportation.

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Commuter Train – Potential Ridership

The commuter service concepts studied were intended to be compatible with the BC Transit Victoria Regional Rapid Transit Project (VRRTP). In addition to using intercity services to carry commuters, other services to / from Victoria were evaluated in this study. Ridership estimates were prepared using a customised direct demand model that has been calibrated against other existing commuter rail services. The model uses the station catchment area population and employment as inputs, and accounts for comparative travel times and commuter rail service attributes. Demographic projections for 2026 were based on the CRD data sets used in the regional travel demand forecasting model.

Six scenarios were tested for the 2026 horizon year, and are summarized below in Table E.2:

1. Base Scenario. The base scenario has trains operating on 30 minute headways, with a West Hills – Victoria travel time of 30 minutes. Off-peak service is provided in the late morning and evening time (6-11 AM and 3-8 PM span of service)

2. High Frequency Scenario. The aggressive scenario includes additional improvements to the rail infrastructure which allows trains to run on 20 minute headways. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

3. Minimal Improvements Scenario. The minimal improvement scenario includes only minimal improvements made to the existing rail infrastructure resulting in a run time of 40 minutes. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

4. Limited Stop Scenario. The limited stop scenario tests a 4 station alignment with stations at Victoria, Esquimalt, Six Mile Road and Langford. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

5. Duncan Scenario. The Duncan scenario includes one of the peak trains from the base scenario providing service through Duncan. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

6. TDM Scenario. The TDM scenario doubles the trip rate factors for each catchment area. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

Table E.2 - Commuter Rail Service Concepts and Passenger Forecasts

Commuter Rail Headway Run Time Off-Peak AM Peak AM Peak 2026 Stations 2026 Annual Scenario (min) (min) Service Hour Period Daily 1. Base 2026 30 30 6 Yes 295 420 1,050 262,500 2. High Frequency 20 30 6 Yes 330 475 1,190 297,500 3. Minimal 30 40 6 Yes 260 370 925 231,250 Improvements 4. Limited Stop 30 26 4 Yes 150 215 535 133,750 5. Duncan 30 30 8 Yes 380 540 1,350 337,500 6. TDM 30 30 6 Yes 540 770 1,925 481,250

A ‘base’ conceptual service (Scenario 1) operating on 30-minute headways and taking 30 minutes to travel from Westhills to Victoria has an estimated annual ridership in 2026 of 260,000 passengers; this assumes track upgrades. Without track upgrades, a travel time of 40 minutes would be provided (Scenario 3) and would yield 15% fewer riders (running this many trains without improvements would likely be infeasible). Against the current travel

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market, ridership would be 700 per day or 175,000 annually. Other scenarios would likewise be 35% lower in riders.

In Scenario 2, increasing the frequency from 2 to 3 trains per hour per direction could result in a further ridership increase of about 40,000 annually (about 13.5%). In Scenario 4, two of the stations are dropped and one of these (Westhills) had been attracting significant ridership, thus reducing ridership by approximately 50%.

Providing a daily commuter train to and from Duncan in addition to the frequent Victoria- Westhills service (Scenario 5), will result in approximately 75,000 extra riders, compared to the base 30-minute service.

Potential Changes In Land Use to Support Ridership

As shown in the TOD scenario, ridership could be higher with more employment and residential population concentrated near the stations. Land use in Victoria is consistent with a commuter rail destination. If employment could be brought closer to the station (or vice versa) ridership potential would be higher. On the other hand, the City is unsure of the terminus location, with options near the current site, challenging ones further east but more central, and less desirable but easier to construct ones outside the downtown area. Land use policies and plans in the City of Langford are mostly supportive of hosting a commuter rail/transit hub in the centre of the city. Evolution from current land uses will take time but the framework exists.

View Royal and Esquimalt is more challenging to support commuter rail. In the case of the former, the alignment runs alongside and through water bodies and regional parks, and lower density residential areas. In the case of the latter, the stop is more of an employment destination, but one with non-standard working hours. Land use in other municipalities along the corridor is largely tied to industrial uses, such that there is limited potential for more residential-based TOD developments in these areas.

Picture: Recent development adjacent to the corridor in View Royal

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1. INTRODUCTION

This draft Working Paper presents the Passenger Analysis undertaken as part of the Evaluation of the E & N2 Railway Corridor on Vancouver Island. Two rail operations are considered: a commuter rail service and an intercity rail service. The proposed commuter rail will serve the areas of Victoria, Esquimalt, View Royal, Langford and West Hills. The proposed intercity rail will serve the 225-km segment between Victoria and Courtenay. Exhibit 1.1 illustrates the E&N Railway Corridor.

The focus of this report is to estimate ridership potential for commuter rail and intercity rail service proposed for this corridor using a Direct Demand Model (DDM) approach. The DDM is a straightforward and simplified method of testing different service scenarios, and relies on basic socio-economic data in the corridor and on level-of-service variables. IBI Group developed a DDM model for each proposed service.

Six potential scenarios for the commuter rail in the horizon year 2026 have been identified for evaluation. Each scenario includes various service assumptions in frequency, improvements to rail infrastructure, stations served and rail mode share factors. For the intercity rail service, five potential scenarios are evaluated. The intercity rail scenarios vary by number of daily trains and the terminal station.

Chapter 2 presents a review of existing commuter and intercity rail comparable to the systems envisioned for the E & N corridor was undertaken to provide a general range of operating data and estimated ridership rates that can be expected. Current travel market in the region is presented in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 describes the methodology, inputs and service scenarios for each rail service, and Chapter 5 presents the model results.

2 Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway

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Exhibit 1.1 - E & N Railway Corridor, Vancouver Island

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2. REVIEW OF PEER GROUP TRANSIT SYSTEMS

Applying a DDM forecasting approach for new rail systems involves relying on factors calibrated for other existing transit systems. Therefore, it is valuable to conduct a peer review of transit systems whose operating environments are comparable to that of the envisioned E & N Railways corridor, and to establish a general range of feasible performance characteristics for the E & N corridor.

This chapter presents the operating characteristics of several existing commuter rail systems, as well as intercity rail service, in North America considered to be within the range of the potential service levels of the proposed E & N corridor. 2.1 Review of Peer Group Commuter Rail Systems The following describes eight peer commuter rail systems used for benchmarking:

 San Diego Coaster;

 San Diego Sprinter;

 San Jose’s Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) in California;

 Dallas Trinity Railway Express;

 West Coast Express between Mission and Vancouver, BC;

 Ottawa O-Train;

 Seattle Sounder; and

 Music City Star in Nashville, Tennessee.

Operating data for these commuter rail systems is summarized in Table 2-1 at the end of the section.

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San Diego Coaster The North County Transportation District (NCTD) operates the Coaster commuter rail service in San Diego Count between Oceanside and downtown San Diego. The 41-mile commuter line includes 8 stations and closely parallels the heavily congested Interstate 5. Transportation and activity centres located near the corridor include the University of California San Diego, San Diego International Airport and downtown San Diego. Direct connections to the San Diego Trolley light rail line are available at the downtown San Diego stations.

The Coaster provides 11 round-trip trains on the weekdays, with more than half of these trains in the peak periods, and 6 round trip trains on Saturdays. Additionally, two evening trains are operated on Fridays and a special train on days when the San Diego Padres baseball team plays at home. NCTD currently reports an average of 6,000 passengers every weekday and over 1,200 passengers on Saturdays3.

3 North County Transit District Coaster Fact Sheet

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San Diego Sprinter Opened in March 2008, the San Diego Sprinter provides light rail service between Oceanside and Escondido. The 22-mile rail line operates along pre- existing railroad right-of-way and follows the Highway 78 corridor. It serves 15 stations with major activity centers including Palomar College and California State University in San Marcos. The Sprinter also provides direct connections to the Coaster commuter rail, Amtrak and Metrolink’s Orange and Inland-Empire County commuter rail lines.

The Sprinter offers 32 round trip trains on the weekdays, with an additional 2 eastbound trains in the morning peak from Vista Transit Center to Escondido, and 24 round trip trains on the weekends. NCTD reported average daily ridership (weekdays and weekends) of 6,502 in July 20084, and an average weekday ridership of 6,700 for the first quarter 20095.

4 Sprinter Project Report July 2008. 5 American Public Transportation Association (APTA) Ridership Statistics – First Quarter 2009 Report

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San Jose Altamont Commuter Express The Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) provides commuter rail service along an 82-mile route between Stockton and San Jose. This line was established in 1998 to serve the rapidly growing population in the Central Valley of California and commuters to the Silicon Valley region in San Jose. There are few major east-west freeway corridors existing in this portion of the state, resulting in high levels of automobile congestion during the AM and PM peak commuting periods. The rail route roughly parallels the alignments of I-580 and I-880. These highways carry 101,000 and 190,000 vehicles, respectively, each weekday.

ACE operates 4 round trip trains in the peak direction on weekdays, with no service on the weekends. Average weekday ridership was 2,900 for the first quarter 20096.

6 American Public Transportation Association (APTA) Ridership Statistics – First Quarter 2009 Report

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Dallas Trinity Railway Express The Trinity Railway Express commuter rail service currently operates between the cities of Fort Worth and Dallas, Texas. The first 10-mile segment in the Dallas opened in 1996, with service to Fort Worth commencing in 2000 and 2001. The current 34-mile line serves 9 stations with an additional station at the American Airlines Center during special events. In addition to serving the downtown areas of Fort Worth and Dallas, transportation and activity centers served along the corridor include the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (via bus shuttle service), American Airlines headquarter offices, and University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center.

Trains operate during both the peak and off-peak periods with 26 eastbound trains serving downtown Fort Worth and 27 westbound trains serving downtown Dallas, although a number of these begin service at intermediate stations instead of the terminals. Saturday service is also provided. The rail corridor does not directly serve the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, although a station is located in close proximity to the airport with connecting bus shuttle service provided.

TRE reports an average weekday ridership of 10,0007.

7 American Public Transportation Association (APTA) Ridership Statistics – First Quarter 2009 Report

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West Coast Express The West Coast Express provides commuter rail service between Mission and downtown Vancouver, with service to Port Haney, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Coquitlam and Port Moody along the way. The Waterfront station in downtown Vancouver provides direct connections to SeaBus, SkyTrain, the Helijet and city buses. The approximately 40-miles (68-km) commuter rail line opened in 1995 and served an average of 10,500 daily passengers in 2008. WCE operates 5 round trip trains in the peak direction Monday through Friday, and supplements its train service with a bus on both the weekdays and weekends.

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Ottawa O-Train The Ottawa O-Train opened in 2001 and provides high-frequency, light-rail service between Bayview and Greenboro. The O-Train serves Carleton University, government offices in the Confederation Heights area and a major shopping centre along its corridor and connects to the city’s Transitway bus rapid transit system at each of its terminal. It operates along approximately 8 kilometers of existing freight rail track and carries an average of 10,000 riders on weekdays. O-Train also provides frequent service on the weekends.

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Seattle Sounder Sound Transit operates the Sounder commuter rail service in the Central Puget Sound area, providing a link between Everett, downtown Seattle and Tacoma. Sounder operates on a 75-mile segment of rail corridor right-of-way owned by Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway.

The South Line has provided commuter service between Tacoma and Seattle since 2000. Service began in 2000 with two round trip trains in the peak directions and only 4 stops. Currently, the line serves 7 stations along its approximately 40-mile corridor and offers 7 trips to downtown Seattle in the morning and 7 trips to Tacoma in the afternoon, with an additional 2 round trip trains in the reverse commute direction during each peak period.

The 35-miles North Line began operations in 2003 with one train in the morning to Seattle and one train in the evening to Everett. Additional round trip service has been introduced gradually, with a second and third round trip added in 2005 and 2007, respectively. Since September 2008, Sounder provides 4 round trips in the peak direction on the weekdays. Two trains in each direction are also available via the Amtrak Cascades service between Bellingham Washington and Vancouver, British Columbia. Sound Transit has partnered with Amtrak Cascades to allow monthly-pass holders to use the Sounder fare structure on these trains between Everett and Seattle.

In addition, Sounder offers select weekend service on both lines during special event weekends such as baseball or football games. Sound Transit reported 9,761 average weekday boardings for the first quarter 20098.

8 Sound Transit Quarterly Ridership Report – First Quarter 2009

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Music City Star (Nashville) The Music City Star commuter rail service opened in September 2006 and operates between Lebanon and downtown Nashville in Tennessee. Trains operate on an existing 32-mile single track rail which is shared with freight services.

The line includes 6 stations and offers 6 trains in each direction in both peak periods, although two of these trains are between Mt. Juliet and downtown. Although it does not operate on the weekends, an extra round trip train is available on Friday evenings. Park-and-ride facilities are available at every station with the exception of the downtown Riverfront station. Average weekday ridership for the first quarter 2009 was approximately 6609.

9 Music City Star Tracks Spring 2009 Newsletter. Average weekday boardings for January 2009 and March 2009 reported as 684 and 639, respectively.

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Table 2-1: Commuter Rail Peer Group Operating Data San Jose Seattle Dallas Trinity San Diego San Diego Altamont West Coast Sounder Music City Star Railway Ottawa O-Train Coaster Sprinter Commuter Express (Everett + (Nashville) Express Express Tacoma Lines) Line Length (miles) 41 22 82 34 40 5 75 32 Stations 8 15 10 10 8 5 10 6 Avg. Weekday Riders 6,000 (1) 6,700 (2) 2,900 (2) 10,000 (2) 10,500 (3) 10,000 (4) 9,761 (5) 660 (6) Year of Inception 1995 2008 1998 1996 1995 2001 2000, 2003 2006 Type of Operation Contract Contract Contract Contract Contract Contract Contract Contract New or Existing Rail ROW Existing Existing Existing Existing Existing Existing Existing Existing Shared Tracks (Freight) Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Weekday Span of 5:00 AM to 4:00 AM to 4:20 AM to 4:55 AM to 5:27 AM to 6:30 AM to 4:45 AM to 5:45 AM to Service 8:00 PM 9:30 PM 7:45 PM 12:15 AM 7:33 PM 24:00 PM 7:15 PM 6:35 PM Everett: 4 Inbound / 11 Inbound / 34 Inbound / 4 Inbound / 26 Eastbound / 5 Inbound / 65 Inbound / 4 Outbound 6 Inbound / Trips per Weekday 11 Outbound 32 Outbound 4 Outbound 27 Westbound 5 Outbound 66 Outbound Tacoma: 6 Outbound 9 Inbound / 9 Outbound 65 Inbound / 66 Outbound 6 Inbound / None 24 Inbound / 11 Inbound / (Sat) Trips per Weekend 6 Outbound None (TrainBus None None 24 Outbound 12 Outbound 32 Inbound / (Sat) provided) 32 Outbound (Sun) Annual Revenue 30,300 (7) Not Available 19,700 (7) 25,400 (7) 37,781 (3) 19,775 (8) 19,300 (7) 5,700 (7) Service Hours Operating Cost per $0.02 per Km $0.41 (7) Not Available $0.32 (7) $1.26 (7) Not Available $0.46 (7) $1.89 (7) Passenger Mile (3) NOTES: (1) North County Transit District Coaster Fact Sheet (2) American Public Transportation Association (APTA) Ridership Statistics – First Quarter 2009 Report (3) West Coast Express Facts and Figures 2008 (WCE website) (4) O-train website. Ottawa / OC Transpo Operating Statistics Report dated July 2004 reports 7,568 average daily passengers in2003 (5) Sound Transit Quarterly Ridership Report – First Quarter 2009 (6) Music City Star Tracks Spring 2009 Newsletter. Average weekday boardings for January 2009 and March 2009 reported as 684 and 639, respectively. (7) 2007 National Transit Database Reporting (8) Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA) Canadian Transit Fact Book. 2007 Operating Data

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2.2 Review of Peer Group Intercity Rail Systems The following describes three peer intercity rail systems: Amtrak Cascades from Vancouver, BC to Eugene, Oregon; Ontario’s Northlander train; and The Coast Starlight between Seattle, Washington and Los Angeles, California.

Amtrak Cascades The Cascades is an intercity rail service running a total of 752 km (467 miles) from Vancouver, BC to Eugene, Oregon, with additional stops throughout Washington and Oregon. The service is operated by Amtrak and is jointly funded by the Washington and Oregon state departments of transportation. The corridor is divided into two sections: one running 251 km from Vancouver to Seattle, and the second running the remaining 499 km from Seattle to Eugene.

Under the current arrangement, Washington funds four daily round trips between Seattle and Portland and Oregon funds two daily round tips between Eugene and Portland. In addition, Washington also funds two round trips with Seattle as the terminus – one to Bellingham, and the other to Vancouver, BC.

The Cascades’ unique funding structure allows it to maintain several partnerships with local transit agencies and municipalities to provide riders with discounts and additional incentives. Examples include 15% discounts given to FlexPass and University of Washington UPass holders, the Chinook Book companion ticket coupons, and Sound Transit’s RailPlus program that allows riders to ride weekday Cascades trains between Everett and Seattle under the Sounder’s commuter rail fare structure.

In 2008, the Amtrak Cascades Service saw an annual ridership of 774,421 – a 14.4% increase from the previous year and the highest ever recorded ridership since the service’s inception10.

10 Washington State Department of Transportation – Amtrak Cascades Annual Ridership Report 2008

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Ontario Northlander Ontario Northland Railway operates an intercity rail service, the Northlander, which links Toronto with northern Ontario. The Northlander operates two trains per days, Sunday to Friday and connects Toronto’s Union Station with fourteen towns in Northern Ontario, terminating in Cochrane. The entire line runs 758 km. Annual ridership on the Northlander is approximately 40,000.

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Coast Starlight The Coast Starlight is an intercity rail service operated by Amtrak running between Seattle, Washington and Los Angeles, California. The service runs a total of 2,216 km (1,377 miles) with 27 intermediate stops. One train leaves each terminus daily, taking about 35 hours to complete the full journey. As a result, the Coast Starlight offers full-meal services and sleeper cabins.

Since the Coast Starlight shares rails with Union Pacific freight traffic, the service has historically been plagued with delays, often 5-11 hours. The lack of reliability in the service’s performance is likely to have contributed to dwindling ridership between 1999 and 2005.

However, since re-launching the service in summer 2008, Union Pacific has given Coast Starlight priority on common lines. This, combined with refurbished equipment and new amenities is likely to have help ridership increase 15% in FY2008 to 406,398.

2.3 Summary & Implications of Peer Systems Comparison with peer systems suggests that the proposed commuter rail service is most similar in operating characteristics to those currently operated by the Music City Star commuter service in Nashville, the San Diego Coaster and the North Line Seattle Sounder between Seattle and Everett, Washington. These commuter rail systems serve 4-8 stations and provide 30-60 minute headways with some type of off-peak and reverse commute service available. In addition, the Seattle Sounder corridor is served by intercity rail trains, similar to the proposed commuter operations on the E & N corridor and current VIA service.

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3. Current Travel Markets

This chapter summarizes the travel markets made from areas along the rail corridors using available trip and traffic count information. 3.1 Commuter Rail Travel Market The proposed commuter rail will primarily serve the areas of Esquimalt, View Royal, Langford and the new West Hills development. As such, these areas will comprise the primary study area in determining the extent of the commuter rail travel market. Two sources of data were used in gauging the size of the potential market – Statistics Canada and CRD’s 2006 Travel Survey.

Statistics Canada Data Travel demand from the West Shore sub-region, which includes Langford, Colwood and Metchosin, has increased significantly in recent year. According to Statistics Canada, daily “journey to work” trips from the sub-region to the urban core increased by 2,230 or 17% between 2001 and 2006. Table 3-1 summarizes the daily journey-to-work trips made from West Shore into the urban area. There are 15,340 such trips made every day, with over half of them to areas that will be served by the proposed commuter rail. There is also an increase of 14% in the number of trips taken to areas that will be served by the commuter rail. Such increases are expected to continue, as the new West Hills development is expected to add about 6,000 homes to the area in the next 20 years11.

In addition, a study conducted by CRD12 in 2006 showed that some 55,400 trips were made every day from the West Short to the Urban Core, with about 54% to areas that are will be served by commuter rail.

Table 3-1: West Shore Trips A. Work Trip Growth 2001 Work 2006 Work Growth from Destination Trips Trips 2001 to 2006 Downtown 3050 3310 9% Victoria South 1860 1990 7% Esquimalt 2040 2705 33% View Royal 945 985 4% Total to areas served 7895 8990 14% B. Total Trips Destination Number of Trips % of Total Victoria 18,800 33% Saanich 22,800 41% Esquimalt 6,100 11% View Royal 5,200 10% Oak Bay 2,500 5% Total 55,400 100%

11 West Hills Community Development – Our Vision 12 CRD 2006 Origin and Destination Household Travel Survey Report, Daily Travel Characteristics

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CRD 2006 Travel Survey Report The relevant results of the CRD 2006 Travel Survey are summarized below. The travel patterns are shown below in Exhibit 3-1.

 Esquimalt – In 2006 there were 11,800 daily trips from Esquimalt into Victoria and another 3,500 going from Esquimalt to View Royal. Another 2,000 daily trips were made from Esquimalt to Langford. All of these areas will be served by the commuter rail.

 View Royal – 2006 survey results shows 3,300 daily trips being made from View Royal to Esquimalt, with another 5,200 trips made to Victoria. A further 2,500 trips were made to Langford/Highlands area.

 Highlands/Langford – 2006 survey results show 2,500 daily tips made to View Royal, 2,500 Trips made to Esquimalt, and 8,800 trips made into Victoria.

 Victoria – In 2006 9,100 trips were made from Victoria to Langford/Highlands, 5,200 trips made to View Royal, and 1,600 trips made to Esquimalt

 Metchosin and Colwood – CRD 2006 survey data shows 4,500 trips made to Victoria from Colwood and 900 from Metchosin. Although these municipalities will not have commuter rail stations of their own, a certain portion of these trips may still be served by commuter rail if the necessary park-and-ride access at Atkins Avenue and Langford stations is provided.

Exhibit 3-1: CRD Travel Survey Travel Patterns A. Origin – Destination Flows Destination Origin View Victoria Esquimalt Highlands/Langford Royal Victoria - 1,600 5,200 9,100 Esquimalt 11,800 - 3,500 2,000 View Royal 5,200 3,300 - 2,500 Highlands/Langford 8,800 2,500 2,500 - B. Trip Flow Map

21 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

3.2 Intercity Rail Travel Market The proposed intercity rail will follow the E & N railway corridor and serve the areas between Courtenay, Nanaimo and Victoria. This section describes the current passenger rail service provided by VIA and summarizes traffic count data available from the BC Ministry of Transportation for highways that parallel the corridor.

VIA Victoria-Courtenay Train Passenger rail service on the E & N railway is currently provided by VIA Rail Canada. One daily train departs northbound from Victoria in the morning and returns from Courtenay in the afternoon. The VIA train schedule for service Monday to Saturday is shown as Exhibit 3-2. Service on Sundays starts and ends two hours later than the regular schedule.

Exhibit 3-2: VIA Train Schedule

Station KM Northbound Southbound Victoria, BC (HP) 0 DP 8:00 18:00 AR Esquimalt 6 08:07* 17:53* Palmer 10 * * Langford 13 08:19* 17:41* Malahat 32 08:48* 17:12* Cliffside 40 * * Strathcona Lodge 42 * * Shawnigan 45 09:08* 16:52* Cobble Hill 50 09:17* 16:43* Hillbank 55 * * Cowichan 58 09:27* 16:33* Duncan 64 9:35 16:25 Hayward 68 * * Chemainus 82 09:56* 16:04* Ladysmith 93 10:08* 15:52* Cassidy 105 10:18* 15:42* South Wellington 108 * * Starks 111 * * 10:35 AR 15:25 DP Nanaimo 117 10:50 DP 15:10 AR Wellington 124 10:58* 15:02* Nanoose Bay 142 * * Parksville 153 11:27 14:33 Qualicum Beach 164 11:38* 14:22* Dunsmuir 177 11:51* 14:09* Deep Bay 190 * * Buckley Bay 203 * * Union Bay 211 12:21* 13:39* Courtenay, BC (HP) 225 AR 12:45 13:15 DP *: Stops on request.

Traffic Volume Data Traffic volumes at several locations along the highway parallel to the intercity corridor are available from the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure13. Although specific travel patterns cannot be directly inferred, these traffic counts do help estimate the travel market

13 BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Highway Data http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/trafficData/index.htm

22 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

along the corridor. Exhibit 3-3 shows the locations of the screenline locations and Exhibit 3-4 shows screenline counts in the 2006 base year.

Exhibit 3-3: Map of Traffic Screenline Locations

Exhibit 3-4: Vehicle Counts (Daily Two-Way Traffic), 2006

Traffic flows drop off significantly north of Nanaimo. This suggests the majority of the travel demand is between Nanaimo and Victoria – not a big surprise as these are the most populous communities on Vancouver Island.

In addition, the north-south travel demand is not constant through the year, with demand increasing during the summer months. This is likely due to the increase in vacation trips carried out during the summer. This suggests the possibility of increasing service levels of the inter-city rail in summer months to accommodate the extra demand.

23 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

4. DIRECT DEMAND MODEL APPLICATION

Commuter rail and intercity rail ridership forecasts have been developed using a Direct Demand Model (DDM). This approach is a practical and more straightforward alternative to the traditional four-stage travel forecasting modeling approach for obtaining transit ridership estimates. In effect, the DDM combines the traditional trip generation and modal split steps into a single step by directly estimating ridership from land use and service characteristic inputs. The DDM is designed specifically for situations where a new mode of travel is being introduced into an urban area and there are no local data for model calibration, or where the anticipated ridership represents a very small portion of the total travel in an urban area (e.g. less than 2%), but may dominate particular market segments (e.g. from outlying areas towards the central business district, CBD). The DDM approach also allows for very efficient testing of different level-of-service scenarios.

The flexibility of Direct Demand Models allows them to be developed based on available data. When there is no existing system or very limited data on which to base the DDM, data from other, analogous cities/regions can be implemented, as was done for the E & N Commuter Rail Corridor. The operation of the existing VIA rail service in the E & N railway corridor, however, has provided performance data that can be used to calibrate the DDM for the intercity component of the passenger analysis. This allows for the use of two different approaches for each passenger market: A DDM based on rates from analogous commuter services in North America covers the potential commuter rail corridor from West Hills to Vancouver, while a different approach calibrated to actual travel behaviour can be used for studying service scenarios for the intercity rail corridor.

The methodology and parameters for the DDM are described below. This is followed by a description of the population and employment forecasts used as key inputs for the model under the proposed service scenarios. 4.1 Methodology The differences in service concept, technology and overall purpose of each of the passenger rail service in the E & N corridor require different methodologies for modeling, which are described as follows:

 Commuter Rail Model – The six-station scenarios are typical of commuter rail operations. The commuter rail model described in this section is applied to these scenarios;  Intercity Rail – The commuter rail model cannot be applied directly to intercity rail service, as the service is more analogous to a traditional long distance intercity rail service than the commuter rail model of travel. Therefore, an intercity model is also used to predict ridership for these services and scenarios. Commuter Rail Model The basis of commuter rail DDMs is the application of a basic trip rate representing the number of trips produced per unit of population and/or employment. The basic trip rate is first determined based on the given train frequency and then is factored, cross-classified, etc. to represent the impact of differing level-of-service characteristics of the existing or proposed service, such as travel time savings relative to auto or access/egress distance.

24 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

The formulation of this DDM is as follows:

AM Peak Period Trips = BasicTripRate x CatchmentPopEmp x f1 x f2 x f3 x ... x fn

where:

BasicTripRate = AM peak period rail trips per capita, stratified by train frequency

CatchmentPopEmp = Population or employment in the catchment area for a station

f1, f2, f3, ..., fn = level-of-service factors to provide adjustments to the initial trip rate to capture specific service attributes

The above factors are empirically derived from data collected from existing services. Level-of- service factors have been empirically derived from commuter rail and service data collected for regional/commuter rail services such as Los Angeles Metrolink, Dallas and Toronto’s GO Transit, among others.

Table 4-1 shows the base AM peak period trip rate for passenger boardings per 1,000 persons, which is stratified by the number of peak period trains (inclusive of any express trains), together with factors reflecting the distance to the boarding station, span of service, provision of express train service, and travel time savings relative to auto. These factors, originally developed from GO Transit relationships, are discussed below.

A distance factor incorporates a change in the base rail transit trip rate as the distance from the rail transit increases. Within one-half kilometre of stations, 100% of the base ridership rate is retained, representing the population with walk access. Moving outwards from the station, secondary and tertiary catchment areas are defined based on the local geographical features and the spacing of stations. Secondary areas represent an approximate 1 to 1.5 km radius (with adjustments for overlaps) and increase slightly in size moving away from the Victoria CBD. Tertiary areas represent the additional commuter shed that could be captured by park- and-ride services, and are aligned for a morning commuter toward the CBD. Tertiary areas increase in size with distance from the CBD and exist only for the four western stations on the line which are the only stations assumed to have park-and-ride lots. Population-based catchment areas are illustrated in Exhibit 4-1.

A span-of-service factor is applied to the trip rates to account for the availability of off-peak service. This generally reflects an approximate hourly service throughout the off-peak periods.A third factor incorporates the provision of express train service to primary destinations in the AM peak period.

A fourth factor incorporates travel time differences between rail and auto modes. For this model, total commuter rail travel time was obtained based on infrastructure limits. Travel times by auto were obtained from the CRD travel demand model and therefore incorporate all of the assumptions inherent to this model’s base case forecasts (i.e. auto travel cost, auto occupancy, road/facility improvements, etc.) The exceptions are drive times from Shawnigan and Duncan, as the CRD travel demand model does not incorporate these areas. “Freeflow” travel times from these stations to downtown Victoria was calculated using Google Maps and adjusted for congestion considerations during the AM peak. Based on comparing CRD model travel times with those reported by Google Maps for the other stations, it was determined that morning congestion adds about 7 minutes to the trip time.

25 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

Table 4-1: AM Peak Period Base Trip Rates per Person & Level-of-Service Adjustment Factors

Base Trip Rate No. of Peak (per 1,000 Period Trains Population) 1 9 2 14 3 17 4 19.5 5 22.5 6 25 7 27 8 or more 28

Distance To Board Station Factors Travel Time Savings Factors Travel Time Saved Relative Catchment Area Type Factor Factor to Auto Mode (min) Primary (0 to ½ km) 1.0 0 to 15 0.30 Secondary1 0.5 15 to 30 0.44 Tertiary1 0.1 30 to 45 0.90

1 Catchment areas defined below. 60 or more 1.15

Express Train Service Factors Span of Service Factors

No. of Peak Period Off–Peak Service Factor Factor Express Trains Provision?

0 1.00 No 0.82 1 1.25 Yes 1.4 2 or more 1.35 Yes 1.4

Total population-based demand on the line is determined by summing passenger boardings for all stations in the corridor except Victoria Station. The total estimated ridership based on population represents a population-constrained total ridership for the system.

26 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

Exhibit 4-1: Commuter Rail Population Catchment Areas A. Victoria-West Hills Corridor

B. Duncan Corridor

27 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

Trip alightings are determined in a similar manner to passenger boardings, but with the base trip rate based on employment rather than on population in employment-based catchment areas for each station. For this analysis, employment catchment is considered at the Esquimalt and Victoria stations, as shown in Exhibit 4-2 as there is very little concentration of employment near the other stations. The main factors influencing employment-based ridership are distance from the alighting station to the final destination and the provision of high-quality rapid transit service from the alighting station to the final destination.

Exhibit 4-2: Commuter Rail Employment Catchment Areas

Table 4-2 shows the base AM peak period trip rate for passenger alightings per 1,000 jobs, which is stratified by distance from the egress station to employment areas in Victoria. The model assumes that ridership at the employment end of the trip is not as sensitive to the commuter rail service itself as the passenger-based model. It is, however, quite sensitive to the provision of destination-end rapid transit service, due to access between the workplace and the commuter rail station as well as for general increased mobility at the work end, reducing a commuter’s need for a vehicle at work. This is reflected in a transit service provision adjustment factor applied to the base trip rate.

Table 4-2: AM Peak Period Base Trip Rates per Job & Level-of-Service Adjustment Factors

Distance From Egress Base Trip Rate Destination-End Rapid Transit Access Factors Station (km) (per 1,000 Jobs) Primary (0 to ½ km) 195 RT Access 1.25 Secondary (½ to 1 km) 92 No RT Access 0.5

Total employment-based demand on the line is determined by summing passenger alightings at the Esquimalt and Victoria stations. The total estimated ridership based on employment represents an employment-constrained total ridership for the system.

After total boardings and alightings are determined, the total line ridership is determined as the mid-point, or average, of the totals determined from the population- and employment-based estimates. Boardings and alightings at each station are then scaled to this overall control total. To obtain weekday daily ridership estimates, AM peak period ridership is doubled,

28 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

corresponding to commuter rail systems with no off-peak service. In model scenarios with off- peak service the peak to daily factor is adjusted accordingly.

Intercity Rail Model As with all typical DDM methods, the basic components include trip generation rates applied to the population and employment within defined station catchment areas. In the case of the existing intercity rail service along the E & N corridor, several modifications to the DDM methodology are required:

1. The first assumption is that ridership for the commuter rail service is tied only to population in the respective catchment areas. This is due to the rail service being heavily biased towards the tourism sector and there is currently no usage of the railway for commuting purposes.

2. The model predicts daily total ons and offs by station. This is in contrast to the general DDM methodology which is used to simulate peak period commuter flows. Daily ridership is modelled because there is not reliance on commuting flows for line ridership and the nearly 5-hour running time means that the train is operating mostly outside of the peak period.

3. Trip rates are defined from a linear regression of observed boardings and alightings against catchment area population. The rates are determined for “primary” and “secondary” catchment areas by station. The primary and secondary areas capture the differences in trip rates due to the accessibility of the station. Primary areas consist of the 500 metres immediately surrounding the station, defining the generally accepted distance that users will walk to access/egress the transit station. The secondary areas cover the range from 0.5 to 10 km from the station, with a larger secondary catchment area of 15 km for stations north of Parksville. These represent the areas from which riders will use auto (i.e. passenger pick up) access to the station. Trip rates for these areas are lower than those for the primary areas.

4. Because of the tourist nature of the rail service, the use of population catchments around stations has two purposes. The existing rail service likely attracts riders from well outside of the immediate catchment areas, particularly at the Victoria end of the Corridor, but the use of population catchments also act as a proxy of total activity nearby stations along the corridor differentiating locations with larger and smaller population bases. Further factors are used to account for the higher tourist draw that exists at particular locations along the corridor. Since no specific origin and destination data on travelers is available this approach represents a best available approximation of demand in the corridor based on the available data.

A multivariate ordinary least squares regression technique was used to estimate the different rates by regressing the primary and secondary population against observed boardings and alightings by station, respectively, while using the observed ridership as a check on overall reasonableness. This analytical method also provides a means for determining whether or not the estimated primary and secondary rates (i.e. parameters) are indeed statistically significant.

29 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

The functional form of the multivariate regression model is:

RIDERS = (RATEprimary) (POPprimary) + (RATEsecondary) (POPsecondary)

Where:

RIDERS = the dependent variable, the number of daily boardings or alightings. Return trips are generally made from the same station, and observed boardings and alightings are found to be nearly symmetric so the final units being calculated are the average of boardings and alightings by station. Summing riders across all stations provides the total daily passengers.

POP = the explanatory variable, which is the population in the primary and secondary catchment areas.

RATE = the independent variable parameters (i.e. the station trip rates)

As discussed, station trip rates (i.e. the independent variable parameters) for primary and secondary catchment areas were determined by regressing them against primary and secondary population. The constant term that would normally be present is forced to zero as the basic assumption is made that there should be no boardings/alightings at a station with no population/employment if the catchment areas are properly defined. The estimated trip rates and goodness-of-fit measures are presented in Table 4-3.

Comparison of the observed and predicted base year values are not shown due to confidentiality requirements, but as a rule the model predicts ridership well with the largest variations being a systematic under-prediction at Courtenay station, while over-predicting demand at the Langford, Duncan and Ladysmith Stations.

Table 4-3: Estimated Intercity Rail Trip Rates and Model Performance

Estimated Rate (per 1000 persons) 2 Adjusted Land Use Measure R 2 F R Primary Secondary

Value 17.49 0.351 21.5174 Population 82.7% 69.7% t-stat 0.9796 1.527

The estimated trip rates are within expected ranges. The primary catchment area rates are larger than the secondary area rates and are both statistically significant, meaning that they likely play a role in explaining the number of boardings and alightings. The R2 goodness of fit measure indicates the proportion of variability in the observations explained by the model while the adjust R2 measure compensates for the number of variables used. The model provides good R2 values, particularly given the low number of observations used for calibration. This indicates that the catchment areas are well defined. The F-statistics, which are measures of the statistical significance of the models as wholes, indicate that both of the boarding and alighting models are significant at the 95% confidence level, which, again, is very good considering the number of observations.

Overall, the model performs reasonably well. The statistical significance for the secondary catchment areas is stronger than the primary catchments suggesting that there is not necessarily a stronger draw for those who live in the direct vicinity of the VIA stations. The primary catchment is most likely capturing the appeal of station located within dense urban areas as destinations as opposed to the draw being directly the people living in the catchment. The model is unable to capture some of the station level variation that is present

30 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

due to different tourist appeal at some locations, but is an excellent predictor of total line ridership.

In addition to the base rates developed, a series of factors are also used based on the commuter DDM model to account for level of service variations. These factors are shown in Table 4-4 and include:

 The commuter rail stratification based on number of peak period trains are adopted to number of daily intercity trains in the form of a base rate factor;  A distance factor incorporates a change in the base rail transit trip rate as the distance from the rail transit increases. This factor is based on the difference on the primary and secondary catchment rates as estimated in the multiple regression analysis. The catchment areas are shown in Exhibit 4.3;  A “commuter factor” is applied for cases where morning peak period trains are being run inwards from Nanaimo towards Victoria and trains are run in the reverse direction in the afternoon peak. This reflects that the intercity service is capturing the long distance commuter market beyond what is to be served by the Victoria commute service and that riders are able to make business trips into Victoria by rail without requiring an overnight stay;  The final factor applied to the base ridership is a tourism factor which adjusts the station level boardings according to whether the station is a primary tourist destination. This enables the base model calibration to match closer to observed totals. The Courtenay total is particularly high to account for the people who are travelling the entire corridor length and those who continue on to destinations in the northern part of the Island.

Table 4-4: Intercity Daily Trip Rate Adjustment

No. of Daily Base Trip Rate Trains (per Factor direction) 1 (Base Rate) 1 2 1.28 3 1.44 4 1.58 5 1.75 6 1.89 7 2 8 or more 2.05

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Distance To Board Station Factors Catchment Area Type Factor Primary (0 to ½ km) 1.0 Secondary1 0.122

1 Catchment areas defined below. Commuter

Provides Service to a Factor Victoria Commuter Market?

No 1 Yes 1.5

Tourism

Station Name Factor

Victoria 1.1 Langford 0.25 Shawnigan 1.0 Duncan 0.5 Chemainus 1.0 Ladysmith 0.5 Nanaimo 0.5 Parksville 1.0 Buckley Bay 1.0 Qualicum Beach 1.5 Courtenay 2.25 Port Alberni 2.25 NOTE: The above base trip factors are doubled in the TDM scenarios

32 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

Exhibit 4-3: Intercity Catchment areas

4.2 Population & Employment Inputs The DDM model uses basic socio-economic data in the vicinity of the rail stations as the basis for ridership estimates. The model uses these data for primary, secondary and tertiary catchment areas for each station used within the model, as discussed above. These data are presented in Table 4-5Error! Reference source not found. for commuter rail and Table 4-6 for intercity rail.

Base population data was obtained from Statistics Canada. Both population and employment total are based on the 2006 Census with population and employment totals being represented at the CSD level. Employment totals are from the Place of Work survey completed for the Victoria CMA and represents a 20% sample of employment within the metropolitan area. For additional resolution in population numbers, the CSD population was split up between urban and rural areas based on the Census Urban Area definition. This ensures that population will not be averaged over an area larger than the real urbanized area which dilutes the population at the catchment area level.

Future year population forecasts were based on population projections developed by the BC Ministry of Health, and was available at the Local Health Area (LHA) level. Growth rates by CSD were taken from the LHA data and determined at a CSD level based on the proportion of the CSD that falls within each LHA. Adjustments were made as necessary at the individual catchment area level to account for locations with population densities higher than the CSD average. In particular, the 2026 population estimates were increased to account for the new developments planned in the immediate station vicinity.

For the commuter rail, employment forecasts were developed for the Esquimalt and downtown Victoria catchment areas using a similar method. Refinements on the employment totals were necessary due to the concentration of employment in the downtown catchments that were not captured when smoothing employment over the entire Victoria CSD. Trip flows in the CRD regional travel demand model were used to approximate the proportion of total work trip ends that were within each of the catchment areas. The 2006 employment totals were then grown proportionally to population growth within the areas to obtain a conservative estimate of employment totals in 2026.

33 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

Due to the concentration of employment at CFB Esquimalt, the approximately 620014 jobs at the Canadian Forces Base, the employment totals for the Esquimalt catchments were calculated slightly differently than for Victoria. The employment due to CFB Esquimalt was assumed to be contained entirely within the two employment catchment zones, with each catchment area’s share of the employment proportional to the relative number of trip ends in that area. The remainder of the employment in Esquimalt was taken to be distributed over the entire municipality, with the each catchment area’s share calculated in a manner analogous to those of Victoria’s catchments.

Table 4-5: 2006 & 2026 Population & Employment by Catchment Area for Commuter Rail A. Population

Station Level Pop06 Pop26 Growth Duncan 1 1,200 1,400 21% 2 5,600 6,800 21% 3 13,000 15,800 22% TOTAL 19,800 24,100 22% Shawnigan 1 100 200 22% 2 700 900 21% 3 3,600 4,400 21% TOTAL 4,400 5,400 21% West Hills 1 600 900 54% 2 4,200 6,400 54% 3 5,500 8,400 54% TOTAL 10,200 15,800 54% Langford 1 600 900 54% 2 4,600 7,200 54% 3 10,500 16,300 54% TOTAL 15,800 24,300 54% Atkins Avenue 1 600 900 54% 2 1,700 2,500 49% 3 5,700 8,800 54% TOTAL 8,000 12,200 53% Six Mile Road 1 400 500 17% 2 1,300 1,500 17% TOTAL 1,700 2,000 17% Esquimalt 1 1,800 2,000 10% 2 6,600 7,300 10% TOTAL 8,500 9,300 10% Note: Only shows values for stations used in population-constrained model.

14 Canadian Navy – Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt

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B. Employment

Station Level Emp_06 Emp_26 Growth Victoria 1 27,100 29,800 10% 2 25,100 27,700 10% TOTAL 52,200 57,500 10% Esquimal 1 900 900 4% 2 6,100 6,300 3% TOTAL 7,000 7,200 3% Note: Only shows values for stations used in employment-constrained model.

Table 4-6: 2006 & 2026 Population by Catchment Area for Intercity Rail

Station Level Pop06 Pop26 Growth Victoria 1 2,200 2,400 10% 2 75,000 82,500 10% TOTAL 77,200 85,000 10% Langford 1 600 900 54% 2 19,800 30,200 53% TOTAL 20,300 31,100 53% Shawnigan 1 100 200 21% 2 1,700 2,100 21% TOTAL 1,800 2,200 21% Duncan 1 1,200 1,400 21% 2 10,900 13,200 22% TOTAL 12,000 14,600 22% Chemainus 1 400 400 22% 2 2,700 3,300 22% TOTAL 2,700 3,300 22% Ladysmith 1 600 800 23% 2 10,900 13,500 23% TOTAL 11,500 14,300 23% Nanaimo 1 700 900 30% 2 16,800 21,800 30% TOTAL 17,400 22,700 30% Parksville 1 300 400 33% 2 7,400 9,800 33% TOTAL 7,700 10,100 33% Qualicum B 1 400 500 33% 2 6,600 8,700 33% TOTAL 7,000 9,200 33% Buckley Bay 1 7 9 34% 2 200 300 34% TOTAL 200 300 34% Courtenay 1 600 900 34% 2 11,300 15,100 34% TOTAL 11,900 15,900 34% Port Alberni 1 600 500 -7% 2 22,100 20,700 -7% TOTAL 22,700 21,200 -7%

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4.3 Scenario Definition This section describes the various service assumptions of each scenario evaluated for the commuter rail and intercity rail service.

Commuter Rail Model Six scenarios are tested for the 2026 horizon year, and are summarized below in Error! Reference source not found.Table 4-7:

3. Minimal Work Scenario. The minimal work scenario includes only minimal improvements made to the existing rail infrastructure resulting in a run time of 40 minutes. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

5. Duncan Scenario. The Duncan scenario includes one of the peak trains from the base scenario providing service through Duncan. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

6. TDM Scenario. The TDM scenario doubles the trip rate factors for each catchment area. The other model parameters are identical to the base scenario.

Table 4-7: 2026 Commuter Rail Scenario Service Assumptions A. Scenario Specification

Headway Run Time No. of Off-Peak Scenario (min) (min) Stations Service 1 30 30 6 Yes 2 20 30 6 Yes 3 30 40 6 Yes 4 30 26 4 Yes 5 30 30 8 Yes 6 30 30 6 Yes

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B. Time Savings Relative to Auto

Station Base Run Time Slow Run Time West Hills -3 -13 Langford -2 -12 Atkins Ave 3 -5 Six Mile Ave 1 -6 Esquimalt 6 2 Shawnigan -15 - Duncan -35 - Note: Values representative of time savings from each station to Downtown Victoria. Time savings from Shawnigan and Duncan are based on existing VIA travel times and estimated drive times from Google Maps and adjustments for congestion.

Intercity Rail Model Five scenarios are tested for the 2026 horizon year, and are summarized below in Table 4-8:

2. Moderate Scenario. The moderate scenario includes the addition of an additional train leaving Nanaimo in the morning inbound to Victoria, which continues on and does the full route, returning to Nanaimo in the evening. This adds an important intercity ‘commute’ option.

3. Aggressive Scenario. The aggressive scenario includes a third train building on the moderate scenario, leaving Nanaimo northbound and cycling through the corridor.

5. TOD Scenario. The TOD scenario assumes population increases are higher than average within the primary catchment area of the stations, with less development farther away from the stations. This produces somewhat higher potential ridership

Table 4-8: 2026 Intercity Rail Scenario Service Assumptions

Scenario Daily Trains (per dir) Commute Service 1 1 No 2 2 Yes 3 3 Yes 4 2 Yes 5 1 No

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5. MODEL RESULTS AND SUMMARY 5.1 Commuter Rail Results Application of the DDM produces the projected 2026 morning peak period commuter rail boardings and alightings by station and total line ridership shown in Table 5-1. In general, ridership is consistent with the service design and can be handled within the capacity restrictions of the proposed service. Of the approximately 420 riders expected, over 50% would board within the first two stations (West Hills and Langford). The base morning peak period ridership would correspond to about 1,000 daily riders.

Table 5-1: 2026 Commuter Rail Scenario Results A. Ridership Summary

Commuter Rail AM Peak AM Peak 2026 2026 Scenario Hour Period Daily Annual 7. Base 295 420 1,050 262,500 8. High Frequency 330 475 1,190 297,500 9. Minimal Work 260 370 925 231,250 10. Limited Stop 150 215 535 133,750 11. Duncan 380 540 1,350 337,500 12. TOD/TDM 540 770 1,925 481,250

B. Detailed AM Peak Period Ridership Forecasts

Base High Freq Minimal Work Limited Stop Duncan TOD/TDM Station On Off On Off On Off On Off On Off On Off Duncan ------110 - - - Shawnigan ------10-- - West Hills 140 - 160 - 130 - - - 140 - 270 - Langford 100 - 110 - 85 - 95 - 95 - 165 - Atkins 50 - 80 - 45 - 55 - 45 --- Ave. Six Mile 35 - 55 - 35 - 40 - 30 -35- Rd. Esquimalt 100 - 110 - 80 - 100 - 100 - 200 - Victoria - 420 - 475 - 370 - 230 - 540 - 770 Total 420 420 475 475 370 370 230 230 540 540 770 770

5.2 Intercity Rail Results Application of the DDM for intercity rail produces the projected 2026 daily rail boardings and alightings by station and total line ridership shown in Table 5-2. In general ridership shows promising growth over existing ridership levels with some moderate improvements in service quality by providing better access to major markets in the corridor at the time people need to be traveling and by eliminating the need for overnight stays when traveling southbound in the

38 IBI GROUP REPORT EVALUATION OF THE E & N RAILWAY CORRIDOR: PASSENGER ANALYSIS

corridor. The base daily ridership corresponds to about 335 daily riders during the summer peak.

Table 5-2: 2026 Intercity Rail Scenario Results

Port 2006 Avg. 2026 Base Moderate Aggressive TOD/Mod Alberni Station Ons Brdgs Brdgs Brdgs Brdgs Brdgs Victoria 115 130 460 585 585 545 Langford 8 10 40 50 50 45 Shawnigan 2 5 5 10 10 10 Duncan 12 15 55 70 70 70 Chemainus 9 10 40 50 50 50 Ladysmith 3 5 15 20 20 20 Nanaimo 25 30 115 150 150 130 Parksville 11 15 40 65 65 45 Qualicum Beach 18 25 60 110 85 75 Buckley Bay 2 5 5 10 10 5 Courtenay 64 85 225 395 310 270 Port Alberni 0 - - - 50 - Peak Season 268 335 1,060 1,515 1,455 1,265 Daily Annual 40,200 50,000 159,000 227,000 218,000 190,000

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