May 26, 2015 Bolsa Movers & Shakers
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Bolsa Movers & Shakers May 26, 2015 . HOMEX (Not Rated): Will have shareholders’ meeting to advance in bankruptcy proceedings. HOMEX will have a shareholders’ meeting on June 11th at which it will propose, among other things: i) an inverse split; ii) liability capitalization; iii) increase in variable common equity, which would be represented as new stock for investors. We believe HOMEX continues making progress in its liability restructuring proceedures. We will remain up to date on the company’s progress. MEGA (HOLD; TP MP 70.0): Favorable Outlook in the Enterprise and Triple Play Businesses Already Priced In We estimate that the Mexican enterprise networks market will expand at a 15% annual rate to exceed MP 95 billion by 2018 supported on a stronger macroeconomic performance. This rate of growth is quite significant if we take into account that other telecommunications segments, such as the traditional fixed and wireless telephone services, are declining or stagnating. Enterprise sales could reach 24% of Megacable’s total revenue. If we assume that Megacable’s share of the enterprise networks market reaches 5% in 2018 (slightly up from 4% in 2014), its data transmissions revenue would increase at a 40% CAGR to around MP 4.8 billion in order to represent around 24% of its total revenue (vs. 15% in 1Q15). In other words, this is one of Megacable’s main sources of growth for the next few years. With respect to Megacable’s traditional triple play operations, we continue to believe that their outlook is optimistic, mainly because of a low penetration of this type of services. We expect the revenue generating units to increase at a 17% CAGR to exceed 7.2 million in 2017, which should be the main driver behind the 18% EBITDA CAGR over the 2015-2017 period that we are expecting. This includes a 23% rise in 2015, which means that Megacable is on track to exceed its guidance for the year of a 19% growth in this indicator. This analysis has reinforced our view on Megacable’s strong fundamentals which include a high growth, the fact that the company is one of the consolidators of the Mexican cable-TV industry due to its significant free cash flow generation and healthy balance sheet, its position as Mexico’s second largest triple-play provider, and its management team with a solid track record of value creation. However, we continue with a HOLD recommendation on Megacable’s shares mainly because we believe that they are fairly valued with an 2015E EV/EBITDA of 9.3x and a projected P/E of 17.7x. In addition, the upside potential to our MP 70.0 target price is only 7%. PAPPEL (Not Rated): Bio Pappel signs syndicated loan The company announced that today it executed, together with various subsidiaries acting as guarantors, a senior secured term loan agreement for approximately US$ 255 million, whose proceeds will be used to refinance outstanding debt and for the payment of part of the purchase price for the shares of Corporación Scribe. and Grupo Papelero Scribe. Such credit will be extended over two funding dates, and will be disbursed in two tranches, in Mexican pesos and US dollars, representing 60% and 40% of the total loan amount, respectively. TEAKCPO (Not Rated): Financiera Maderera (Finsa) acquired 5% of Proteak The company announced that Finsa acquired 5.2% of Proteak. Finsa dedicates itself to manufacture and sale medium density fiberboard (MDF) products. Finsa will provide technical assistance and will transfer technology to help operate the new MDF plant to be operational by the end of 2015. TECHNICAL ANGLE The IPC fell 0.05% to 44,852 points on Monday. The resistance band is within 45,500 to 46,070 points. The support band is within 44,570 to 43,950 points. The IPC is sending buy technical signals. Equity, Economic, Quantitative and Fixed Income Research Departments Equity Research Gustavo Terán Durazo, Head of EquityResearch (52) 55 1103-6600 x1193 [email protected] CFA Senior Analysts Telecommunications, Media and Martín Lara (52) 55 1103-6600x1840 [email protected] Financials Carlos Hermosillo Bernal Consumption (52) 55 1103-6600 x4134 [email protected] Pablo Duarte de León FIBRAs (REITs) (52) 55 1103-6600 x4334 [email protected] Mining, Metals, Paper and Pablo Abraham Peregrina (52) 55 1103-6600x1395 [email protected] Conglomerates Ramón Ortiz Reyes Cement, Construction and Concessions (52) 55 1103-6600 x1835 [email protected] Federico Robinson Bours Energy, Chemicals and Industrial (52) 55 1103-6600 x4127 [email protected] Carrillo Junior Analysts Telecommunications, Media and Juan Ponce (52) 55 1103-6600x1693 jponce@actinver,com.mx Financials Enrique Octavio Camargo Energy, Chemicals and Industrial (52) 55 1103-6600x1836 [email protected] Delgado José Antonio Cebeira Consumption (52) 55 1103-6600x1394 [email protected] González Mining, Metals, Paper Conglomerates , Mauricio Arellano Sampson (52) 55 1103-6600 x1835 [email protected] Cement, Construction and Concessions Economic and Quantitative Research Head of Economic and Quantitative Ismael Capistrán Bolio [email protected] Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x6636 Jaime Ascencio Aguirre Economy and Markets [email protected] (52) 55 1103-6600 x1100 Santiago Hernández Morales Quantitative Research [email protected] (52) 55 1103-6600 x4133 Roberto Ramírez Ramírez Quantitative Research (52) 55 1103-6600x1672 [email protected] Roberto Galván González Technical Research [email protected] (52) 55 1103 -66000 x5039 Fixed Income Research Araceli Espinosa Elguea Head of Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103 -66000 x6641 [email protected] Jesús Viveros Hernández Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103 -66000 x6649 [email protected] Disclaimer Guide for recommendations on investment in the companies under coverage included or not, in the Mexican Stock Exchange main Price Index (IPC) StrongBuywith an extraordinary perspective. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuations of stock and/or prospects for the sector are EXTREMELY FAVORABLE Buy. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the stock’s valuation and / or prospects for the sector are VERY FAVORABLE Neutral. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector ARE NEUTRAL OR FAVORABLE but with a similar perspective to the IPC Belowmarket. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector outlook ARE NOT POSITIVE Sell. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector outlook ARE NEGATIVE, or likely to worsen In reviewwith positive outlook In review with negative or unfavorable perspective ImportantStatements. a) Of theAnalysts: “The analysts in charge of producing the Analysis Reports: Jaime Ascencio Aguirre; Mauricio Arellano Sampson; Enrique Octavio Camargo Delgado; Ismael Capistrán Bolio; José Antonio Cebeira González, Pablo Enrique Duarte de León; Araceli Espinosa Elguea; Roberto Galván González; Ana Cecilia González Rodríguez; Carlos Hermosillo Bernal; Santiago Hernández Morales; Martín Roberto Lara Poo; Ramón Ortiz Reyes; Pablo Abraham Peregrina; Juan Enrique Ponce Luiña; Federico Robinson Bours Carrillo; Gustavo Adolfo Terán Durazo; Jesús Viveros Hernández, declare”: 1. "All points of view about the issuers under coverage correspond exclusively to the responsible analyst and authentically reflect his vision. 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