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Mid-Term Evaluation of Strengthening The Final Report Mid-Term Review of UNDP GEF-LDCF2 Project Afghanistan Project period reviewed: 27th April 2014 - 30th June 2017 Strengthening the resilience of rural livelihood options for Afghan communities in Panjshir, Balkh, Uruzgan and Herat Provinces to manage climate change-induced disaster risks UNDP PIMS#: 00087639 GEF Project ID: 00087639 24th November 2017 Submitted to: Livelihoods and Resilience Unit, United Nations Development Programme, Afghanistan Submitted by: Tanvir Hussain and Mohammad Wasim, MTR Consultants Cover Photo: GEF-UNDP CCAP and World Food Programme supported 16,000 terraced plantations on the hill slopes of Khulm District, Balkh Province, which are watered using a solar water pump, three water reservoirs, and a drip irrigation system (GPS: 36.677527 N, 67.688848 E). Page (ii) MTR TEAM MEMBERS Mr. Tanvir Hussain Independent Consultant. Team Lead Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist and Financial Analyst MPA Columbia University, New York; MSc Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. [email protected] Mr. Waseem Rahimi Independent Consultant National Consultant Irrigation Engineer [email protected] Page (iii) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This Mid-Term Review was facilitated and supported by a number of people. First, I would like to thank Mrs. Laura Rio, Head of Livelihoods and Resilience Unit, UNDP and Mr. Mohammad Salim, Programme Analyst, Livelihoods and Resilience Unit, UNDP Afghanistan for providing overall assistance in successful completion of the MTR Mission. Second, I am thankful to Mr. Daud Rahimi, Programme Director, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL), and Mr. Shoaib Khaksari, Project Manager, Climate Change Adaption Project (CCAP), MAIL, and their teams who were very helpful in providing time and all the necessary documentation, information, and clarifications related to the project. Members of Project Board and representatives of government ministries, several United Nations agencies, NGOs, and academia were kind enough to spare time for discussions with the MTR team. Security, Administration, Travel, and Regional teams of UNDP Afghanistan could not be more helpful in providing timely facilitation in the challenging security environment of Afghanistan and keeping the Mission members safe. Provincial teams of CCAP deserve acknowledgement in arranging and re- arranging several impromptu meetings with provincial colleagues in various government departments as schedules kept changing constantly due to threatening security situation. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the support provided for this MTR by my colleague Waseem Rahimi, who worked tirelessly to arrange most of the meetings, get security approvals, ensure logistics, and accompanied me for site visits to two of the three provinces visited. His understanding of the local systems, ability to converse in several languages, and share insights when consulted, helped in making the MTR Report relevant and meaningful. Page (iv) TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................... VIII 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... XI MTR RATINGS AND ACHIEVEMENT SUMMARY TABLE ................................................................................... XIII 2. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................... 1 2.1 PURPOSE OF THE MTR AND OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................... 1 2.2 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 1 2.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE MTR ............................................................................................................ 2 2.4 STRUCTURE OF THE MTR REPORT .................................................................................................. 2 3. PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND CONTEXT .......................................... 3 3.1 DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT: ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, INSTITUTIONAL, AND POLICY FACTORS RELEVANT TO THE PROJECT OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE ............................................................................. 3 3.2 PROBLEMS THAT THE PROJECT SOUGHT TO ADDRESS: THREATS AND BARRIERS TARGETED ......................... 3 3.3 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND STRATEGY: OBJECTIVE, OUTCOMES AND EXPECTED RESULTS .......................... 4 3.4 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS: SHORT DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT BOARD, KEY IMPLEMENTING PARTNER ARRANGEMENTS, ETC. ............................................................................... 5 3.5 PROJECT TIMING AND MILESTONES ................................................................................................. 6 3.6 SUMMARY LIST OF MAIN PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS ............................................................................. 7 3.7 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF PROTRACTED INSECURITY AND INSTABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN ............................................................................................................................. 7 3.8 CCAP WEB LINKS ......................................................................................................................... 8 4. FINDINGS ............................................................................................................ 9 4.1 PROJECT STRATEGY ...................................................................................................................... 9 4.1.1 Project Design ................................................................................................................................... 9 4.1.1.1 Relevance to country priorities and country ownership ........................................................................... 9 4.1.1.2 Stakeholder consultations....................................................................................................................... 10 4.1.1.3 Gender Issues .......................................................................................................................................... 11 4.1.1.4 Resilience in the context of CCAP ........................................................................................................... 11 4.1.2 Results Framework/Logframe ........................................................................................................ 12 4.1.2.1 Logframe results chain and indicators .................................................................................................... 12 4.1.2.2 Monitoring of broader development context ......................................................................................... 14 4.2 PROGRESS TOWARDS RESULTS ..................................................................................................... 16 4.2.1 Progress towards outcomes analysis ............................................................................................. 16 4.2.1.1 Progress towards Development Objective .............................................................................................. 17 4.2.1.2 Outcome 1: Climate change risk and variability integrated into local planning and budgeting processes ............................................................................................................................................................... 18 4.2.1.3 Outcome 2: Rural income and livelihood opportunities for vulnerable communities enhanced and diversified .............................................................................................................................................. 19 4.2.1.4 Outcome 3: Productive infrastructure improvements ............................................................................ 20 4.2.2 Progress at provincial level ............................................................................................................. 21 4.2.3 Comparison of GEF Tracking Tool at Baseline and MTR ................................................................. 22 4.2.4 Remaining barriers to achievement of project objective and expansion of project benefits ........ 24 4.3 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT .............................................................. 26 4.3.1 Management Arrangements .......................................................................................................... 26 4.3.1.1 Quality of execution of Executing Agency/Implementing Partner .......................................................... 26 4.3.1.2 Quality of support provided by UNDP and UNDP-GEF RTA..................................................................... 28 4.3.1.3 Gender and project implementation ...................................................................................................... 29 4.3.2 Work planning ................................................................................................................................ 30 4.3.3 Finance and co-finance ................................................................................................................... 31 Page (v) 4.3.3.1 Budget, expenditure, delivery and trends............................................................................................... 31 4.3.3.2 Budget revision and reallocation ............................................................................................................ 33 4.3.3.3 Financial
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