The Development of Copycat Towns in China: An Analysis of Their Economic, Social, and Environmental Implications Working Paper WP17DS1 Daniel Sui Ohio State University Bo Zhao Oregon State University Hui Kong Ohio State University October 2017 The findings and conclusions of this Working Paper reflect the views of the author(s) and have not been subject to a detailed review by the staff of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Contact the Lincoln Institute with questions or requests for permission to reprint this paper. [email protected] © 2017 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Abstract The great urban leap forward in China during the past four decades has dramatically transformed the Chinese landscape across the country as well as Chinese society in many profound ways. By situating the development of xenophilic copycat towns under the broader context of China’s four urban design and development motifs, this report presents an initial study of copycat/shanzhai towns in China through a mixed qualitative and quantitative approach. The qualitative data gathered through on-site interviews and observations reveal multiple unique and local circumstances for the development of these copycat towns while the quantitative analysis and mapping using big data analytics shed light for the first time on the national trend of this phenomena and its manifestations in the local real estate market. Furthermore, the way in which the development of copycat towns still follows the basic laws of supply and demand and market forces should be taken into full consideration. Most of the successful copycat towns covered in this report are either located near a large city, or have convenient transportation infrastructure that makes them accessible from nearby city centers. Violations in basic geography and economic laws have made a significant number of copycat towns into ghost towns. Compared to the conventional urban development models, copycat towns cost a lot more to build and develop, and they also tend to serve the relatively wealthy and powerful cohort of the population. Inadvertently, copycat towns in China have continued to widen the gap between the rich and poor as well as producing a huge environmental cost. This report calls for a fundamental shift in China’s real estate-led urban development land policy and property taxes to ensure the next phase of urban development in China will be economically efficient, social equitable, and environmental sustainable. Moving forward, we recommend a more pragmatic approach to the copycat town development in China by digging deeper into the reasons for their successes and failures. Keywords: copycat town, shanzhai city, urban development, China, land policy About the Authors Daniel Sui is an Arts and Sciences Distinguished Professor and Professor of Geography, Public Affairs, Public Health, and Urban/Regional Planning at the Ohio State University (OSU). His research current interests include ecocity and smart city development in China, location-based social media, and legal/ethical issues of using geospatial technology in society. Sui received the 2006 Michael Breheny Prize for best paper in Environment and Planning. He was also a 2009 Guggenheim Fellow and recipient of the 2014 distinguished scholar award from the Association of American Geographers (AAG). Sui was also the 2015 Public Policy Scholar in residence at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. More information about Sui’s current research and publications can be found at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Sui. Department of Geography The Ohio State University Columbus, OH 43210 U.S.A. [email protected] Bo Zhao is an Assistant Professor of cartography and geovisual analytics at Oregon State University. His current research lies on (1) location spoofing and its social implications, 2) big geospatial data analytics, and (3) web mapping. Bo has participated in projects related to urban development, environmental protection, public opinion, and LGBT community in China. More information about Zhao’s research and publications can be found at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bo_Zhao66 Hui Kong is a Ph.D. student in Department of Geography at the Ohio State University (OSU), majoring in GIS and Urban Studies. Her research interests include theories of the emerging urban/city science, urban modeling /simulation, urban planning and spatial data analysis. More information about Kong’s research and publications can be found at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hui_Kong9 Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank Lincoln Institute of Land Policy’s China Program Visiting Scholarship for partial support for the research that resulted in this working paper. Kate Austermiller and Alexandra Cohen read and commented on an earlier draft of this report, which led to a significant improvement. Daniel Sui also benefited from the discussions with Max Woodworth during the writing of this report. Normal disclaimers apply. Table of Contents Introduction: China’s great urban leap forward .............................................................................. 1 Research goals and objectives .................................................................................................... 2 Structure of this report ................................................................................................................ 3 Research background: Four motifs in recent Chinese urban design ............................................... 3 The nostalgic motif: In pursuit of “gu” [复古/怀旧派] .............................................................. 3 The ecological motif: In pursuit of “tu” [归土/田园派] ............................................................. 4 The xenophilic motif: In pursuit of “yang” [崇洋/仿外派] ........................................................ 5 The hyper-modern motif: In pursuit of “qi”/“xin” [猎奇/求新派] ............................................ 8 Data and Methodology .................................................................................................................. 10 Data ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Mixed method approach ........................................................................................................... 14 Results and Discussions ................................................................................................................ 16 Results of qualitative analysis and field work .......................................................................... 16 Results of quantitative analysis ................................................................................................. 23 Discussions ............................................................................................................................... 28 Summary, Conclusions, and Future work ..................................................................................... 32 Summary ................................................................................................................................... 32 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 33 Future Work .............................................................................................................................. 35 References ..................................................................................................................................... 36 List of Tables Table 1: ‘One City and Nine Towns’ in Shanghai ........................................................................ 19 Table 2: Paired-sample t-test of price difference ......................................................................... 26 Table 3: Logit linear regression on housing price ........................................................................ 27 Table 4: Four dominant motifs in recent Chinese urban design .................................................. 33 List of Figures Figure 1: Nostalgic design in ShaanXi: In pursuit of “gu” ............................................................. 4 Figure 2: Ecocity development in Zhejiang: In pursuit of “tu” ..................................................... 5 Figures 3a and 3b: Xenophilic design: In pursuit of “yang” ...................................................... 6–7 Figure 4: Hypermodern design: In pursuit of “xin”/“qi” ................................................................ 9 Figures 5a and 5b: Data Source .............................................................................................. 11–12 Figure 6: Data harvesting work-flow ........................................................................................... 13 Figure 7: Location and Transportation Conditions of Tianducheng in Hangzhou ....................... 17 Figure 8: Location of Thames Town in Shanghai ....................................................................... 18 Figure 9: Location of Jackson Hole in Beijing ............................................................................. 20 Figure 10: Location of the New Manhattan in Binhai New District in Tianjin ........................... 22 Figure 11: Hallstatt Austrian Town in Huizhou, Guangdong ...................................................... 23 Figure 12: Word Cloud of Copycat Subdivisions using Foreign Names in China ...................... 24 Figure 13: Price