Attachment 6

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment Broadview Project

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Canada Golden Fortune Potash Corporation

Environment & Geoscience

26 | 09 | 2018

Report > Rev. 1 Internal ref. 631260 Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Notice to Reader

This report has been prepared and the work referred to in this report has been undertaken by SNC-Lavalin Inc. (SNC-Lavalin), for the exclusive use of Canada Golden Fortune Potash Corporation (the Client), who has been party to the development of the scope of work and understands its limitations. The methodology, findings, conclusions and recommendations in this report are based solely upon the scope of work and subject to the time and budgetary considerations described in the proposal and/or contract pursuant to which this report was issued. Any use, reliance on, or decision made by a third party based on this report is the sole responsibility of such third party. SNC-Lavalin accepts no liability or responsibility for any damages that may be suffered or incurred by any third party as a result of the use of, reliance on, or any decision made based on this report.

The findings, conclusions and recommendations in this report (i) have been developed in a manner consistent with the level of skill normally exercised by professionals currently practicing under similar conditions in the area, and (ii) reflect SNC-Lavalin’s best judgment based on information available at the time of preparation of this report. No other warranties, either expressed or implied, are made with respect to the professional services provided to the Client or the findings, conclusions and recommendations contained in this report. The findings and conclusions contained in this report are valid only as of the date of this report and may be based, in part, upon information provided by others. If any of the information is inaccurate, new information is discovered or project parameters change, modifications to this report may be necessary.

This report must be read as a whole, as sections taken out of context may be misleading. If discrepancies occur between the preliminary (draft) and final version of this report, it is the final version that takes precedence. Nothing in this report is intended to constitute or provide a legal opinion.

SNC-Lavalin disclaims any liability to third parties in respect of the use of (publication, reference, quoting, or distribution), any decision made based on, or reliance on this report or any of its contents.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Executive Summary

SNC-Lavalin Inc. (SNC-Lavalin) conducted a greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment to support the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for Canada Golden Fortune Potash Corporation’s (CGFPC) Broadview Project (project), a proposed one million tonne per year solution potash mine. This report presents the methods and results of the GHG emissions assessment.

GHG emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), were estimated based on information provided by CGFPC and following an ISO 14064 consistent methodology. Specifically, GHG emission estimates associated with different project activities / sources and GHG emission forecasts for construction and operation were predicted. In addition, the project’s GHG emissions were compared to other Saskatchewan solution potash mines, the Province of Saskatchewan’s total emissions, and the total national GHG emissions.

The direct or “Scope 1” GHG emissions are estimated to be approximately 9.6 kilotonnes (kt) CO2e/y during construction and 182 kt CO2e/y during operation. The project will utilize mechanical vapour recompression (MVR) technology for the evaporators. This technology requires considerably less steam resulting in lower natural gas usage when compared to the other potash solution mining facilities, however, electrical power from the grid along with the on-site produced electricity using the cogeneration system will be used to power the MVR’s mechanical compressors. The project’s estimated GHG intensity per kilotonne of potash during operation is 0.18 kt CO2e/y based on the direct emissions. For comparison, the 2015 GHG emissions at other solution potash mines in Saskatchewan were 0.25 kt CO2e/y per kilotonne of potash product (Belle Plaine) and 0.33 kt CO2e/y per kilotonne of potash product (Patience Lake). The proposed project’s direct GHG emissions will add approximately 0.2% to the total annual GHG emissions in the Province of Saskatchewan, and 0.03% to the total annual national GHG emissions.

The indirect or “Scope 2” GHG emissions are caused by the portion of project’s electricity consumption pulled from the SaskPower grid combined with the relatively high GHG emission intensity factor for grid electricity in Saskatchewan. The other portion of electricity consumed by the project comes from an on-site cogeneration facility (cogen), emissions from which are included in the Scope 1 totals above. The project’s indirect GHG emissions are estimated to be 189 kt CO2e/y. There is no publically available data on Scope 2 GHG emissions for other industrial facilities in Canada, as facilities are currently only required to report direct emissions. The Province of Saskatchewan’s Climate Change Strategy includes the management of GHG emissions from electricity generation, hence, the emission factor for electricity in Saskatchewan is expected to decrease.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

Term Definition A activity’s energy consumption AP-42 Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors CACs criteria air contaminants CH4 methane CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent E emissions ECCC Environment and Climate Change Canada EF emission factor EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency FPT Federal-Provincial-Territorial GHG greenhouse gas GWP global warming potential HFC hydrofluorocarbon HHV higher heating value IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISO International Organisation for Standardization MEIT Marine Emissions Inventory Tool MOVES Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator MVR mechanical vapour recompression N2O nitrous oxide NF3 nitrogen trifluoride NONROAD Nonroad Engines, Equipment, and Vehicles PFC perfluorocarbons SF6 sulphur hexafluoride TOC total organic compounds UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USSEC United States Securities and Exchange Commission

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

List of Units

Term Definition $ dollar % percent g CO2e/kWh grams of CO2e per kilowatthour g/L grams per litre g/m3 grams per cubic of metre km kilometre kt kilotonne kWh kilowatt hour kt CO2e kilotonne of CO2e y year

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Table of Contents

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Study Area ...... 1

1.2 Regulatory Context ...... 4 1.2.1 Federal ...... 4 1.2.2 Provincial ...... 4

2 Methods 6

2.1 Baseline GHG Emissions ...... 6 2.1.1 Scope 1 Emissions ...... 6 2.1.2 Scope 2 Emissions ...... 6

2.2 Project GHG Emission Calculations ...... 6 2.2.1 Scope 1 Emissions ...... 6 2.2.2 Scope 2 Emissions ...... 8 2.2.3 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent...... 8 2.2.4 Intensity Calculations ...... 8

3 Results 9

3.1 Baseline GHG Emissions ...... 9 3.1.1 Scope 1 Emissions ...... 9

3.2 Project Emissions ...... 10 3.2.1 Construction Phase ...... 10 3.2.2 Operational Phase ...... 10

4 Closure 12

5 References 13

6 Glossary 15

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Figures

Figure 1.1 Potash dispositions and mines ...... 2 Figure 1.2 KL 280 ...... 3

Tables

Table 2.1 Stationary GHG emission factors (ECCC 2017a) ...... 7 Table 2.2 Global warming potential (GWP) (IPCC 2007) ...... 8 Table 3.1 GHG emissions (Scope 1) by potash solution mines in 2015 ...... 9 Table 3.2 Summary of annual construction phase GHG emissions (Scope 1) ...... 10 Table 3.3 Summary of annual operational phase GHG emissions (Scope 1) ...... 11

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

1 Introduction SNC-Lavalin Inc. (SNC-Lavalin) conducted a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions assessment to support the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for Canada Golden Fortune Potash Corporation’s (CGFPC) Broadview Project (project), a proposed one million tonne per year solution potash mine. This report presents the methods and results of the GHG emissions assessment.

The Broadview Project is located on CGFPC’s KL 280 potash lease, located within the Rural Municipalities of Chester (RM No. 125) and Kingsley (RM No. 124) (Figures 1.1 and Figure 1.2). The center of the lease is located approximately 120 km east of Regina. The proposed mine will include a plant site and a well field for potash extraction. The plant site will include a processing plant, administration buildings, raw water and brine tanks, a tailings management area, rail load- out, security and parking. The mine well field will be developed in stages with three well pads being developed initially, followed by additional well pads as mining progresses. Each well pad will include injection and recovery well heads, piping and valve stations.

GHG emissions were assessed in accordance with the Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners (The Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee [FPT Committee] 2003) and the International Organisation for Standardization (ISO) 14064 standard. The project’s GHG emissions may contribute to climate change; however, it is not possible to predict with any certainty how climate change will impact the region surrounding the proposed project. Climate change impacts in Saskatchewan are already evident, and will become increasingly significant over time (Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative 2009).

Project GHG emissions will occur during construction, operation, and decommissioning. GHG emissions assessed in this study include carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4); sources of other GHGs are either not present on site, or will not be emitted in significant quantities. According to the national Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Program, other potash facilities in Saskatchewan did not report emissions of hydrofluorocabons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), or nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) in 2015 (Environment and Climate Change Canada [ECCC] 2017b). 1.1 Study Area GHG emissions can have widespread effects; hence, this study is not restricted to a defined study area, but compares emissions from the proposed project to emissions from other potash mines, provincial emissions, and national emissions.

300,000 450,000 600,000 750,000 LEGEND

") POTASH MINE

HIGHWAY SASKATCHEWAN RAILWAY

LEASE BOUNDARY ³ ALBERTA MANITOBA POTASH DISPOSITION OUTLINE (CR-837)

DETAIL PRINCE ALBERT

Lloydminster Thunder Rail Prince Albert North Battleford Melfort

Humboldt MELFORT Saskatoon Carlton Trail Railway NORTH BATTLEFORD Yorkton

5,850,000 Regina 5,850,000 Swift Current Moose Jaw Weyburn

Estevan

NOTES Canadian National

SASKATCHEWAN 1. COORDINATE SYSTEM: NAD 1983 UTM ZONE 13N.

SASKATOON HUMBOLDT MANITOBA 2. BASE CADASTRAL DATA ADAPTED FROM HER MAJESTY IN RIGHT OF SASKATCHEWAN OR ") CORY MINE ") PATIENCE INFORMATION SERVICES CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN, SASKADMIN2013, SASKGRID2013. LAKE MINE CR-837 3. CADASTRAL BOUNDARIES ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE ") VANSCOY MINE CONSIDERED SUITABLE FOR LEGAL, ENGINEERING, OR SURVEYING PURPOSES. 4. TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES OBTAINED FROM CANVEC V12.0 DATASET, NATURAL RESOURCES ALLAN MINE ") ") CANADA EARTH AND SCIENCES SECTOR CENTRE FOR TOPOGRAPHIC INFORMATION, 2013-09-30. COLONSAY MINE 5. HIGHWAYS AND ROADS OBTAINED FROM THE NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK SASKATCHEWAN ") LANIGAN MINE EDITION 6.0 DATASET, 2012-09-28. 6. RAILWAYS OBTAINED FROM THE NATIONAL RAILWAY NETWORK SASKATCHEWAN EDITION 1.0 DATASET, 2012-11-07. 7. POTASH DISPOSITION OBTAINED FROM SASKATCHEWAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMY (MINING AND PETROLEUM GEOATLAS).

Big Sky Rail Corp. 5,700,000 5,700,000

YORKTON REFERENCE DRAWINGS

DWG No. DESCRIPTION REVISIONS Last Mountain Railway

K-1 ESTERHAZY ") K-2 MINE ") ESTERHAZY ") MINE ISSUED FOR REVIEW

REV DATE DESCRIPTION DES DRN APP

") ROCANVILLE 0 25 50 100 BELLE REGINA MINE Kilometers PLAINE ") MOOSE JAW MINE SCALE: 1:1,850,000

SWIFT CURRENT KL 280 CR-837

CLIENT PROJECT LOCATION 5,550,000 5,550,000 CANADA GOLDEN FORTUNE BROADVIEW PROJECT Canadian Pacific POTASH CORPORATION

TITLE

WEYBURN POTASH DISPOSITIONS AND MINES

DES BY LM DRN BY WH CHK BY DATE 2018 04 06 300,000 450,000 600,000 750,000 SIZE 11x17 FIG No. 1.1 DWG No. 631260-E-02-E-005 REV 0 Path:W:\CGFPC\624190 EIA_KP437\4.0 Execution\4.5 GIS and Drawings\GIS\DRAWINGS\EIS\631260-E-02-E-005(KL280Location Plan).mxd LEGEND

RAILWAY SASKATCHEWAN k e HIGHWAY re C e n WATERCOURSE la 17-05-W2 se o R 17-06-W2 KL 280 17-07-W2

17-08-W2

47 £ 17-09-W2 ¤ PROPOSED PLANT SITE

Eka po RURAL MUNICIPALITY Falcon Summerberry C r e e WATERBODY k AAAAAAA AAAAAAA WATERBODY (INTERMITTENT) AAAAAAA £¤1 Grenfell Lloydminster WELL FIELD Prince Albert North Battleford Melfort £¤1 Oakshela Saskatoon Humboldt Canadian Pacific DETAIL RM OF ELCAPO Yorkton No. 154 BROWN HILL RESERVOIR Regina Swift Current Moose Jaw Weyburn

Estevan EKAPO LAKE

MARSTON LAKE 16-05-W2 16-06-W2 16-07-W2 RM OF 16-08-W2 16-09-W2 WOLSELEY No. 155 NOTES A

d 47 1. COORDINATE SYSTEM: NAD 1983 UTM ZONE 13N. ¤ a £ Pi ir p 2. BASE CADASTRAL DATA ADAPTED FROM HER MAJESTY IN RIGHT OF SASKATCHEWAN OR es C to r INFORMATION SERVICES CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN, SASKADMIN2013, SASKGRID2013.

e ne C e re 3. CADASTRAL BOUNDARIES ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE k e k CONSIDERED SUITABLE FOR LEGAL, ENGINEERING, OR SURVEYING PURPOSES. 4. TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES OBTAINED FROM CANVEC V12.0 DATASET, NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA EARTH AND SCIENCES SECTOR CENTRE FOR TOPOGRAPHIC INFORMATION, 2013-09-30. 5. HIGHWAYS AND ROADS OBTAINED FROM THE NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK SASKATCHEWAN EDITION 6.0 DATASET, 2012-09-28. 6. RAILWAYS OBTAINED FROM THE NATIONAL RAILWAY NETWORK SASKATCHEWAN EDITION 1.0 DATASET, 2012-11-07.

15-05-W2 15-06-W2 15-07-W2 15-08-W2 15-09-W2 REFERENCE DRAWINGS

Baring

DWG No. DESCRIPTION REVISIONS

RM OF

KINGSLEY

47 ¤ £ No. 124 ISSUED FOR REVIEW

REV DATE DESCRIPTION DES DRN APP

Glenavon 0 2.5 5 10 ¤£48 RM OF CHESTER Kilometers No. 125 14-05-W2 SCALE: 1:150,000 14-06-W2 14-07-W2 14-08-W2 14-09-W2

Peebles ¤£48 CLIENT PROJECT LOCATION

CANADA GOLDEN FORTUNE BROADVIEW PROJECT Canadian National POTASH CORPORATION

TITLE

M Kipling Marsh oose Dalzell Kipling Marsh KL 280 Mounta in C re ek DES BY LM DRN BY WH CHK BY DATE 2018 04 06 SIZE 11x17 FIG No. 1.2 DWG No. 631260-E-02-E-004 REV 0 Path:W:\CGFPC\624190 EIA_KP437\4.0 Execution\4.5 GIS and Drawings\GIS\DRAWINGS\EIS\631260-E-02-E-004(LocationPlan).mxd Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

1.2 Regulatory Context 1.2.1 Federal GHG emission reporting is required federally through Notices under The Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999, as per the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Program (Canada Gazette 2017). Under this program, facilities releasing more than 10 kt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/year must submit an annual report on their emissions; whereas reporting is voluntary for facilities emitting less than 10 kt CO2e/y.

GHG emissions are undergoing increased regulation globally through the Paris Agreement and through the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change in Canada. Under the Paris Agreement, Canada committed to reducing GHG emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by the year 2030. Pricing of carbon pollution is central to the Pan-Canadian Framework and provincial governments are collaborating with the federal government to establish provincial GHG reduction policies, including carbon pricing. Saskatchewan does not support a federal carbon tax and did not sign the Pan-Canadian Agreement; however, the Government of Canada has announced a carbon tax of $10/tonne to be introduced in 2018, rising $10/tonne annually to $50/tonne in 2022 (Government of Saskatchewan 2017). Provinces that don’t introduce a tax of their own are expected to have a tax imposed upon them by the federal government.

1.2.2 Provincial The Province of Saskatchewan has developed an overall strategic direction on climate change that does not include a carbon tax and continues to work towards developing the appropriate structures and legislation to implement the strategy (Government of Saskatchewan 2016 and 2017).

The Climate Change Strategy outlines numerous management strategies which will have both direct and indirect effects on the proposed project. The strategy covers natural systems (agriculture, forest harvesting, and protection of water systems), physical infrastructure (electricity generation, vehicles and transportation infrastructure, homes and buildings), economic sustainability (large industrial emitters, technology and innovation, upstream oil and gas industry), community preparedness, and measuring, monitoring and reporting (Government of Saskatchewan 2017). The strategy includes developing and implementing sector-specific output-based performance standards on large emitting facilities (facilities emitting more than 25 kt CO2e/y). Flexible compliance options for industry will be developed that will include:

› Making improvements at facilities to reduce emission intensity; › Purchasing carbon offsets, representing a reduction in GHG emissions; › Using best performance credits; › Utilizing a market mechanism outlined in the Paris Accord, such as an internationally transferred mitigation outcome; and › Paying into a technology fund.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Next steps in the Climate Change Strategy include (Government of Saskatchewan 2017):

› Engagement/consultation on the strategy; › Proclaim or amend enabling legislation (e.g. The Management and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases Act, which was never proclaimed); › Refine the plan; › Release regulations and guidance documents; › Establish reporting structures; and › Begin implementation.

Since the release of the Climate Change Strategy, the government has released the following legislation and standards with respect to greenhouse gases that will apply to the proposed project:

› The Province proclaimed portions of The Management and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases Act, which enable reporting, verification and compliance powers, and will enable drafting of new regulations and standards to further support Saskatchewan’s comprehensive approach to climate change. › The Province passed The Management and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases (General and Reporting) Regulations which, along with its associated Standard, require facilities which emit over 10 kt CO2e/y to report GHG emissions to the province (Government of Saskatchewan 2018a). › The Province announced output-based performance standards that will regulate Saskatchewan's large industrial facilities (facilities emitting more than 25 kt CO2e/y) to reduce greenhouse gasses by an additional 5.3 million tonnes from 2019 to 2030, achieving 10 per cent reductions by 2030 (Government of Saskatchewan 2018b). Reductions could be achieved through a number of flexible compliance options, including payments into a technology fund, purchase of offset credits, or trading of performance credits with other provincially regulated facilities.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

2 Methods GHG emissions were assessed in accordance with the Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners (The Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee [FPT Committee] 2003) and the ISO 14064 standard. It is common practice to apply the ISO 14064 standard for quantification, monitoring, reporting and verifying GHG. The ISO 14064 standard categorizes GHG emissions into direct and indirect emissions and fits them into two broad scopes:

› Scope 1: all direct GHG emissions; and › Scope 2: indirect GHG emissions from consumption of purchased electricity, heat, or steam. 2.1 Baseline GHG Emissions 2.1.1 Scope 1 Emissions Baseline Scope 1 GHG emissions data for provincial and federal emissions were compiled from publically available sources, including The National Inventory Report 1990-2015: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada and Reported Facility GHG Data (ECCC 2017a and 2017b). These baseline emissions only account for the Scope 1 emissions; based on the current Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program requirements facilities are only required to report direct emissions.

2.1.2 Scope 2 Emissions There is no publically available data on Scope 2 GHG emissions for other facilities in Canada, as facilities are only required to report direct emissions. 2.2 Project GHG Emission Calculations The project GHG emissions were estimated based on information from CGFPC. GHG emissions are split into the Scope 1 emissions (direct plant GHG emissions) which include stationary fuel combustion emissions and mobile emissions, and the Scope 2 emissions which include emissions from purchased electricity. Scope 1 emissions were calculated for construction and operation, and Scope 2 emissions were calculated for operation. Decommissioning emissions were not addressed, as it is expected that technologies at the time of decommissioning (i.e. in over 50 years) will be vastly different from currently available technologies. The detailed calculation methodologies for both Scope1 and 2 are outlined below.

2.2.1 Scope 1 Emissions The project’s stationary source GHG emissions were estimated using the general equation:

E = A x EF, where: E = emissions; A = activity’s energy consumption; and EF = emission factor.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Stationary GHG emissions were estimated by applying The National Inventory Report 1990-2015: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada and Reported Facility GHG Data (ECCC 2017a) or United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AP-42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (EPA 2017a). AP-42 has been published since 1972 as the primary compilation of EPA's emission factor information. It contains emission factors and process information for more than 200 air pollution source categories. A source category is a specific industry sector or group of similar emitting sources. The emission factors have been developed and compiled from source test data, material balance studies, and engineering estimates. The Fifth Edition of AP-42 was published in January 1995. Since then, the EPA has published supplements and updates. The latest emissions factors are available on the EPA's website. Further discussion on estimation of emissions can be found in the Air Quality Assessment for the proposed Broadview Project (SNC-Lavalin 2018).

2.2.1.1 Stationary GHG Emissions The plant’s stationary combustion sources include one cluster stack in the thermal power station. The stack emissions will be mainly from a natural gas boiler which includes a cogeneration facility (cogen). The project will also have a drilling rig with two engines running on diesel. GHG emissions for each piece of equipment were estimated based on projected hourly fuel use. An appropriate emission factor was then applied to the combusted fuel volume to estimate the GHG emissions. The emission factors (EF) used in this study are from Environment and Climate Change Canada (Tables A6-1, A6-2, and A6-4 2017a) and are listed in Table 2.1.

For example, cluster stack GHG emissions were calculated by: (i) multiplying its hourly fuel consumption, (term A in the above equation) by the CO2, N2O and CH4 emissions factors to get the hourly emissions; and (ii) multiplying the hourly emissions with number of hours in a year (facility operations are assumed to operate 320 days of the year) to obtain annual emissions.

Table 2.1 Stationary GHG emission factors (ECCC 2017a) Tables A6–1 and A6–2 Table A6–4 GHG Natural Gas Combustion Refined Petroleum Products (g/m3) (g/L)

CO2 1,829 2,690 N2O 0.033 0.147 CH4 0.037 1.1

2.2.1.2 Mobile GHG Emissions Mobile emissions were estimated using:

› U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) and Nonroad Engines, Equipment, and Vehicles (NONROAD) emissions models (EPA 2017b and 2017c); and › Locomotive emission factors and average duty cycles were obtained from the EPA by emissions tier (EPA 2009); The detailed description of the mobile GHG emissions estimation are provided in the Broadview Project Air Quality Assessment (SNC-Lavalin 2018). The mobile GHG emissions were calculated for the on-site operations only.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

2.2.2 Scope 2 Emissions 2.2.2.1 Electricity Emissions The indirect emissions from the electricity usage during operation was estimated by multiplying estimated annual electricity purchased from the SaskPower (297,000,000 kWh) by the SaskPower fleet wide emission factor of 637 g CO2e / kWh provided by SaskPower (B. Ughetto, personal communication, 17 September 2018).

2.2.3 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

The total emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 were calculated by summing the stationary, mobile and indirect emissions and expressed in units of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) by multiplying each of the CO2, N2O and CH4 emissions by their respective 100-year global warming potential (GWP). Provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report, Decision 24/CP.19, the 100-year GWPs are required for inventory reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (IPCC 2007). These GWPs are also required for facility greenhouse gas reporting, under Section 46 (S.46) of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (ECCC 2017c) and are listed in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 Global warming potential (GWP) (IPCC 2007) GHG GWP

CO2 1 N2O 298 CH4 25

2.2.4 Intensity Calculations In addition to calculating total project GHG emissions, GHG intensity of the project per kilotonne of CO2e per kilotonne of potash produced was also estimated based on the 100% emitted Scope 1 GHG divided by the projected full production of the facility. The intensities of other comparable facilities were also calculated using 2015 data, i.e. most recent available. Comparing intensities provides a better picture of facility GHG performance and efficiency in comparison to others, as comparing total GHG emissions does not take into account the full scale of operations.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

3 Results 3.1 Baseline GHG Emissions 3.1.1 Scope 1 Emissions

In 2015, the Province of Saskatchewan emitted approximately 75,000 kt CO2e, approximately 10% of Canada’s emitted 722,000 kt CO2e (ECCC 2017a). Emissions in Saskatchewan increased by 7.8% (5,500 kt) between 2005 and 2015 as a result of activities in the oil and gas, potash and uranium mining, and transportation industries (ECCC 2017a). The major sources of GHG emissions in Saskatchewan are from (ECCC 2017a):

› The oil and natural gas sector, which emits about 32% of the province’s total GHG emissions; › The agriculture sector which emits about 24% of the provinces total GHG emissions; › The electricity sector, which emits about 19% of the province’s total GHG emissions; and › The mining sector (metal and non-metal mines, stone quarries, and gravel pits), which emits about 3% of the province’s total GHG emissions.

Based on the Reported Facility Greenhouse Gas Data (ECCC 2017b), there are two Canadian potash solution mines with available data for GHG emissions in Saskatchewan (Table 3.1). In 2015, Scope 1 emissions from these Saskatchewan potash solution mines were 66 kt CO2e (0.09% of provincial emissions) and 692 kt CO2e (0.92% of provincial emissions) and their intensities ranged from 0.25 kt CO2e to 0.33 kt CO2e per kilotonne of potash product, respectively. The 2015 Saskatchewan’s potash solution mine emissions total was 758 kt CO2e (1.0% of provincial emissions or 0.11% of Canadian emissions).

Table 3.1 GHG emissions (Scope 1) by potash solution mines in 2015

CO2e 2015 emissions Production Intensity Province Facility (kt CO2e/y) (kt) (emissions/production) (ECCC 2017b) (USSEC 2016) The Mosaic Company, Belle 692 2,100 0.33 Saskatchewan Plaine Nutrien, Patience Lake 66 260 0.25 Total 758 2,360 0.32

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

3.2 Project Emissions 3.2.1 Construction Phase 3.2.1.1 Scope 1 Emissions

The Scope 1 construction GHG emissions are estimated to be 9.6 kt CO2e/y (Table 3.2). The construction phase is expected to last for about three years.

Table 3.2 Summary of annual construction phase GHG emissions (Scope 1)

CO2 CH4 N2O Total CO2e Source Type (kt CO2e/y) Cranes 0.8 0.001 0.1 0.9 Bulldozing 3.2 0.004 0.4 3.6 Drilling Rigs 0.7 0.001 0.1 0.7 Excavators 0.3 0.0003 0.03 0.3 Compactors 0.5 0.001 0.1 0.6 Loaders and Backhoes 1.6 0.002 0.2 1.7 Large trucks 0.6 0.001 0.01 0.6 Single unit trucks 1.2 0.001 0.02 1.2 Total 9.6

3.2.2 Operational Phase 3.2.2.1 Scope 1 Emissions

The annual Scope 1 GHG emissions for the operational phase are 182 kt CO2e/y (Table 3.3). Most of the Scope 1 GHG emissions will be emitted from the boilers through the cluster stack. The cluster stack emissions account for 96% of the total direct GHG emissions of project. The Broadview Project will utilize a mechanical vapour recompression (MVR) technology for the evaporators, and this technology requires considerably less steam resulting in lower natural gas usage when compared to the other solution mining facilities with available data. Electrical power provided by SaskPower’s electricity grid will be used for the MVR’s mechanical compressors. The project's electricity consumption is also supplied by a onsite cogeneration facility, and cogen emissions are included in the 'cluster stack' emissions in Table 3.3. The project’s estimated GHG intensity per kilotonne potash during operation is 0.18 kt CO2e/y based on the direct emissions and the production of 1,000 kt per year of potash.

The project will add approximately 0.2% to the total annual GHG emissions in the Province of Saskatchewan and 0.03% to the total annual national GHG emissions.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Table 3.3 Summary of annual operational phase GHG emissions (Scope 1)

CO2 CH4 N2O Total CO2e Source Type (ktCO2e/y) Cluster stack 173 0.1 0.9 174 Portable drilling rig 6.0 0.01 0.7 6.8 Locomotive 0.5 0.001 0.05 0.5 Various plant sources* 0.4 0.001 0.04 0.5 Well pad* 0.2 0.0002 0.01 0.2 Total 182 Notes: *small and intermitted sources are grouped together into one source type

3.2.2.2 Scope 2 Emissions The project’s Scope 2 GHG emissions, from indirect electricity emissions, are estimated to be 189 kt CO2e/y. The project’s indirect or “Scope 2” GHG emissions are caused by the portion of project’s electricity consumption pulled from the SaskPower grid combined with the relatively high GHG emission intensity factor for grid electricity in Saskatchewan. Note that the other portion of electricity consumed by the project comes from an on-site cogen, emissions from which are included in the Scope 1 totals. The project’s Scope 2 emissions will add about 1% to the provincial electricity emissions of 14,600 kt CO2e (ECCC 2017a).

There is no publically available data on Scope 2 GHG emissions for other facilities in Canada, as facilities are only required to report direct emissions. Indirect GHG emissions (Scope 2 emissions) are caused by the project’s electricity consumption, and the large GHG emission factor associated with grid-based electricity in Saskatchewan. The Province of Saskatchewan’s Climate Change Strategy includes the management of emissions from electricity generation, hence, the emission factor for electricity in Saskatchewan is expected to decrease.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

4 Closure This Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment was prepared by SNC-Lavalin Inc. on behalf of Canada Golden Fortune Potash Corporation to support the Environmental Impact Assessment for Broadview Project.

Prepared by:

Ana Maric, C.E.T., GHG-V, EP Project Manager

Reviewed by:

Roger Ord, MBA, P.Eng. Lyndsey MacBride, M.Sc., P.Geo. Director, Acoustics, Air Quality & Climate Change Operations Manager, IACE, SK & MB

Environment & Geoscience Infrastructure

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

5 References Canada Gazette. 2017. Notices with respect to reporting of greenhouse gases (GHGs) for 2017, Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999. URL: http://www.gazette.gc.ca/rp- pr/p1/2017/2017-12-30/html/notice-avis-eng.html#na2 (accessed September 2018).

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). 2017a. National Inventory Report 1990-2015: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Cat. No.: En81-4/1E-PDF. ISSN 2371- 1329. URL: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submission s/items/10116.php (accessed June 2017).

ECCC. 2017b. Reported Facility Greenhouse Gas Data. URL: http://www.ec.gc.ca/ges- ghg/default.asp?lang=En&n=8044859A-1 (accessed June 2017).

ECCC. 2017c. Global Warming Potentials. URL: https://www.ec.gc.ca/ges- ghg/default.asp?lang=En&n=cad07259-1 (accessed August 2017).

ECCC. 2017d. Greenhouse gas emissions per person and GDP Greenhouse gas emissions per person and GDP. URL: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate- change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions/per-person-gross- domestic-product.html and http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick- choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=0510001 (accessed November 2017).

The Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee (FPT-Committee). 2003. Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners. The Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee, Government of Canada, Canada.

Government of Canada. 2014. Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation. Government of Canada, Canada.

Government of Saskatchewan. 2016. Climate Change White Paper. URL: https://www.scribd.com/document/328041639/Saskatchewan-White-Paper-on-Climate- Change#from_embed (accessed December 2017).

Government of Saskatchewan. 2017. Prairie Resilience: A Made-in-Saskatchewan Climate Change Strategy. December 2017. URL: http://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and- media/2017/december/04/climate-change-strategy (accessed December 2017).

Government of Saskatchewan. 2018a. The Management and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases (Reporting) Standard. June 2018. URL: http://publications.gov.sk.ca/documents/66/107832- Climate%20Change%20Reporting%20Standard%20June%202018.pdf (accessed September 2018).

Government of Saskatchewan. 2018b. Prairie Resilience: Output-Based Performance Standards. URL: http://publications.gov.sk.ca/documents/66/107966-

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

Prairie%20Resilience%20Backgrounder%20-%20Performance%20Standards.pdf (accessed September 2018).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC). 2009. Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation. Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, Saskatchewan, Canada.

SNC-Lavalin Inc. 2018. Broadview Project Air Quality Assessment. Prepared for CGFPC.

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2017a. AP-42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. URL: https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-factors-and-quantification/ap-42- compilation-air-emission-factors (accessed September 2017).

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2017b. MOVES and Other Mobile Source Emissions Models. URL: https://www.epa.gov/moves (accessed September 2017).

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2017c. NONROAD Model (Nonroad Engines, Equipment, and Vehicles). URL: https://www.epa.gov/moves/nonroad-model- nonroad-engines-equipment-and-vehicles (accessed September 2017).

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2009. Emission Factors for Locomotives. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-F-09-025, April 2009.

United States Securities and Exchange Commission (USSEC). 2016. Form 10-K. Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Broadview Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment

6 Glossary Term Definition Defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that climate change alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." Gas that accumulates in the earth’s atmosphere and traps heat, thus contributing greenhouse gas (GHG) to the greenhouse effect. The major GHGs responsible for causing climate change are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Releases of GHG, from either natural sources or from human activities, such as GHG emissions the burning of fossil fuels for electricity generation, industrial processes, or transportation. Any activity, process or mechanism that removes a GHG from the atmosphere, such as oceans, forests, soils and wetlands. Human activities can either enhance sinks (carbon sinks) sinks (i.e. help to store additional carbon) or release existing stored carbon (e.g. deforestation). Activities that protect and enhance carbon storage can be supported as two aspects of an overall climate change strategy.