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OPINION RELATED Back from the brink in Ukraine? Constitutional reforms are needed for a lasting solution in Ukraine.

Last updated: 29 Jan 2014 10:46

Oxana Shevel

Oxana Shevel is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University and an Associate at the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University.

In Pictures: Ukraine unrest continues

Like 219 Tweet 59 0 Compromise offer from President Yanukovych fails to mollify the opposition. ( 28-Jan-2014 )

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Strengthening the powers of the parliament might be a long-term solution to the crisis in Ukraine, writes the author

[EPA]

On January 28, Ukraine stepped from the brink of a disaster, at least temporarily. The national parliament met for an extraordinary session and cancelled the package of anti-democratic laws it adopted with massive procedural irregularities on January 16. Popular outrage at these laws galvanised protests, turned them violent, and threatened geographic breakup of Ukraine.Protesters in western and some central regions took over government buildings and vowed to recognise the People's Council - a de-facto parallel government proclaimed by protest leaders on January 19 - and not the authority of the government of President .

Prime Minister Mykola Azrov , particularly despised by protesters, also stepped down on the same day and the president accepted his resignation. Negotiations are still underway both on the terms of amnesty for arrested protesters (dozens have been detained since protests turned violent on January 19), and on possible

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changes to the constitution to reduce presidential powers. The parliament has also extended its extraordinary WEEKLY HIGHLIGHT session to continue the search for a political solution out of the current crisis. Cold war over Ukraine? Threatening democracy ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV These steps are a welcome diffusion of the crisis that threatened the very existence of Ukraine as a state. They also indicate that the government may be finally ready to take the protesters seriously and acknowledge Ukraine's identity rift

the depths of popular discontent with Yanukovych's autocratic and corrupt rule. Up until now, the authorities REMI PIET pretended to carry on with business as usual while insisting that the protesters are a minority of radicals, while life in Ukraine outside of the Independence Square (the Maidan) continues as normal [Ua]. Russia's shifting role in Ukraine crisis

Unfortunately to reach this point, it took two months OLGA ONUCH of protests that paralysed the centre of the capital; Violence, death and a failed political street clashes never seen before in Ukraine; at least process in Ukraine five protesters and two policemen dead; hundreds of OLESIA OLESHKO people injured; dozens of journalists beaten by police , takeovers of government buildings across Back from the brink in Ukraine? the country; and violence and torture unleashed on OXANA SHEVEL protesters and activists by the police and unidentified thugs-for-hire often working in tandem Another chance for change in Ukraine scraps protest laws as PM steps down with police [Ua]. Ukraine MYKOLA RIABCHUK The situation remains fragile, but if a search for a solution continues at the political level, the most important elements of a comprehensive solution would be constitutional reform reducing presidential powers. Since WHAT'S HOT OPINIONS coming to power in free elections in February 2010, Yanukovych gradually rolled back Ukraine's democratic process. The most significant blow to democratic power-sharing in Ukraine has been the procedurally VIEWED DISCUSSED dubious annulment by the Constitutional Court in September 2010 of the 2004 constitutional reform that established parliamentary-presidential system in Ukraine. Saving al-Aqsa mosque Ukraine's identity rift The 2004 reform - itself adopted as a compromise to resolve the crisis following rigged 2004 presidential election and the "Orange Revolution" - created an imperfect balance of power between executive and Former Soviet Republics: Fear, concern and legislative authorities. This in turn prevented any one party, business clan, or individual from usurping political frustration power in the country. By rolling back the reforms, Yanukovuch sought to monopolise control of Ukrainian Whose version of 'diversity' did the Oscars politics. celebrate?

Super-presidency has been a successful strategy for consolidation and maintenance of political power for The Gulf security pact: Another GCC dilemma virtually all autocrats in the former Soviet space, including in Ukraine's neighbouring Russia and Belarus. In Ukraine, however, historically-formed cultural divide between the north-west and the south-east of the country AIPAC: American watchdog or Israel's attack- dog? presents any president with latent, if not active, opposition in roughly half of the country. In this socio-political reality, only true power sharing at the top can give the governing elites lasting legitimacy nationwide. On 'invasion': Why the UN veto has to go The solution: A parliamentary system Remembering Hugo Chavez Ongoing negotiations include a possible return to the 2004 Constitution and the parliamentary-presidential system. The negotiators should consider the abolition of the post of presidency altogether and the Cold war over Ukraine? establishment of a parliamentary form of government in Ukraine. This may be the best institutional solution for Matteo Renzi: A Machiavellian 'Prince'? the long term for several reasons.

First, it avoids the dual executive model which, while more pluralistic than super-presidential system, can lead to conflict between similarly and independently powerful prime minister and president and generate political stalemate. This is exactly what happened in Ukraine during 2005-2010, when the country lived under parliamentary-presidential model. During that period, the government was virtually paralysed by perpetual conflict between then President Viktor Inside Story - Deadlock in Ukraine Yushchenko and Prime Minister .

Secondly, a move to parliamentary system would be a compromise by all political actors involved in the current conflict, and thus is more likely to be accepted since there will be no obvious winners and losers. All three leaders of the opposition - Vitaliy Klytchko, Arsenii Yatseniuk, and Oleh Tyahnybok have presidential ambitions - and so does President Yanukovych since he is nearing the end of his first term in office. The inability of the opposition leaders to agree on a single candidate to challenge Yanukovych caused much frustration among protesters. It also complicated possible defections by dissatisfied business elites from the Yanukovych camp, as there is no one who can credibly give guarantees to those who would contemplate defecting, and no clear camp for them to defect to.

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Getting rid of the post of the presidency altogether would be a compromise for the opposition leaders, OPINION demonstrating their willingness to give presidential ambitions for the long-term stability of the country. Parliamentary system itself would also ensure political survival of elites in the Yanukovych's party since they Ukraine's identity rift will be virtually guaranteed seats in the future parliament based on stable electoral support the Party of REMI PIET Regions in the south and east of the country. Remembering Hugo Chavez These political prospects may make them more willing not to back any further use of force or other steps favoured by "hawks" around president Yanukovych that would escalate tensions. BELEN FERNANDEZ

Thirdly, a move to parliamentary system could be face-saving for Yanukovych himself who, as a part of this Matteo Renzi: A Machiavellian 'Prince'? compromise, could remain president for several more months, possibly till the end of his term a year from now. Keeping office but with reduced powers could be presented as an acceptable compromise to the protest SILVIA MAZZINI movement which has been demanding the president's ouster but does not have ways to force it. AIPAC: American watchdog or Israel's attack-dog? For Yanukovych himself, staying in office for now provides time to negotiate terms of exit for himself and his MARWAN BISHARA family. Furthermore, as the head of the that maintains strong support in the east of the country, he and his party could come back to politics in parliamentary elections. Afghanistan elections: The myth and reality about ethnic divides

Yet another benefit of a parliamentary system is that it ensures that all parts of the Ukrainian society are HELENA MALIKYAR represented in political power. Up until now the president would be elected by one or the other half of the The Small Data revolution is the country. Thus there was always the danger that the new president would be seen by the losing half as not real revolution representing them. RUFUS POLLOCK Ukraine's regional divisions, which are destabilising in a presidential system, can prove to be stabilising in a The glass in Ukraine: Half full, half parliamentary system. The geographic divide would ensure that in the parliament any majority will always be spilt narrow and opposition strong. To prevent narrow majority from usurping political power - this danger exists in MICHAEL HIKARI CECIRE a purely parliamentary system - minority in the parliament should be legally given formal guarantees, for example control of some power ministries, of the institutions regulating the media, and seats in constitutional Cold war over Ukraine?

and other higher courts. ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV

A move to a parliamentary system should come in combination with other important reforms. It is important to Is AIPAC doomed? implement a judicial appointment system to end the total control of the courts by the president. There needs to be a new electoral code that would create political balance in election authorities at all levels and a new PHILIP GIRALDI

electoral law based on open list proportional representation. Hizmet unmasks 'undemocratic' Erdogan Finally, political commitment by all key players is needed in order to work towards broad cultural and budgetary autonomy for Ukraine's diverse regions. All this could not only be an acceptable compromise to SEVGI AKARCESME end the current crisis, but a recipe for a democratic and peaceful future in Ukraine for years to come. Al Jazeera English

Oxana Shevel is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University and an Associate at Like 3,002,010 the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University. She is the author of Migration, Refugee Policy, and State Building in Postcommunist Recent Activity Europe (Cambridge 2011). Log in Log in to Facebook to see your friends are The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's doing. editorial policy. Why war with Iran would spell disaster 2,599 people recommend this.

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Viktor Yanukovych Ukraine Cambridge national parliament Facebook social plugin Ua Belarus Party of Regions Mykola Azrov Russia Constitutional Court Yulia Tymoshenko Harvard University Vitaliy Klytchko Ukrainian Research Institute Oxana Shevel Davis Centre for Russian Arsenii Yatseniuk and Eurasian Studies Oleh Tyahnybok Tufts University People's Council Yanukovych's party

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FEATURED Neslihan Kurosawa • Protests may have ended for the time being however the Ukraine will never sever its close economic and political ties with Russia to actually become part of the EU Zone. It seems to be only wishful thinking on the parts of many Ukrainians. Maybe a bit like having the lady luck on their side while playing the Russian roulette? • •

John Ellis • True, if your proposing that Ukraine maintain it's current independence. • • Meltdown: After the fall Bergolts • Some responded with denial, others by rethinking Madame Oxana : I understand the crux of your argument for a 'British' system yet personally capitalism, but who is preparing for the next crisis? this system is nothing new . Whereas a certain strata of the Ukrainian population desires a more egalitarian representation of Government ,the undeniable fact remains that the Oligarchs wish only to protect their own 'STATUS' and maintain their Wealth regardless which Political Party is in power . Perhaps President Putin is desirous that this 'problem ' becomes a Western problem ; which is nothing new for the West especially since its existence is so prevalent within the Capitalist mentality . The risk that the protesters are taking ,perhaps unbeknownst even to themselves is the 'splitting ' of their own Country - as you have stated. The division of the Ukraine into two rump states is a very distinct possibility with the border being the Dnieper river . Now whether the Ukrainian citizens realize that they are being sacrificed for the benefit of a handful of Oligarchs that have no allegiance except to themselves and their wealth is another matter. The IMF and the various multi-national corporations which must include Monsanto - in the Bread Basket of Europe must also be considered along with the US FED which is hell bent on Globalisation ,in this case through their NATO proxies. • •

John Ellis • Iraq War --- "Mission accomplished"

It was eleven years ago this May that paid actor Bush made the ignoble proclamation, standing on top of an aircraft carrier, dressed in a combat pilot uniform and with his jet helmet in hand.

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