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Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics Norrin M. Ripsman, Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell 1 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2016 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Ripsman, Norrin M., author. | Taliaferro, Jeffrey W., author. | Lobell, Steven E., 1964– author. Title: Neoclassical realist theory of international politics / by Norrin M. Ripsman, Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell. Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, 2016. Identifiers: LCCN 2015040763 (print) | LCCN 2016000647 (ebook) | ISBN 978–0–19–989923–4 (hardback) | ISBN 978–0–19–989925–8 (paperback) | ISBN 978–0–19–989924–1 (E-book) | ISBN 978–0–19–060304–5 (E-book) | ISBN 978–0–19–060305–2 (Online Component) Subjects: LCSH: International relations. | International relations—Philosophy. | Realism—Political aspects. | BISAC: POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / Diplomacy. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General. Classification: LCC JZ1307 .R56 2016 (print) | LCC JZ1307 (ebook) | DDC 327.101—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015040763 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed by Webcom, Canada To our families CONTENTS Acknowledgments ix Introduction: Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics 1 1. Neoclassical Realist Theory and the Limits of Structural Realism 16 2. The Neoclassical Realist Research Paradigm and Its Independent Variable 33 3. Neoclassical Realist Intervening Variables 58 4. The Scope and Domain of Neoclassical Realism: The Dependent Variables 80 5. A Methodology of Neoclassical Realism 99 6. Resolving Key Theoretical Debates Using Neoclassical Realism 139 7. The Future of the Neoclassical Realist Research Agenda 161 Index 189 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book is the result of a twelve- year collaboration that began at the International Studies Association conference in Portland, Oregon, in February 2003. All three of us individually were struggling with the same theoretical problems with the international relations literature. We had each studied aspects of international security, but were frustrated with the paradigmatic rigidity of debates in the field. Our own work had crossed both paradigmatic lines and levels of analysis in the interest of explanatory power. Yet we strongly believed in the importance of both structural constraints on state behavior and the utility of a systematic the- ory of foreign policy and international politics. Ben Frankel, the founding editor of Security Studies— who mentored young scholars and built them into a network— introduced us and encouraged us to explore our com- mon interests in enriching realism. Gideon Rose coined the term “neoclassical realism” in a review article of four books published in the spring 1998 issue of World Politics. In that article, Rose claimed those four books (by Thomas J. Christensen, Fareed Zakaria, Randall Schweller, and William C. Wohlforth, respectively) con- stituted a new school of mid- range foreign policy theories. Neoclassical realism, as he envisioned it, sought to blend the central insight of the structural realism (or neorealism) of Kenneth N. Waltz about the con- straints an anarchic international system imposes upon states with the practical insights about statecraft and the complexities of state- society relationships found in the twentieth- century classical realism of Hans Morgenthau, Arnold Wolfers, E. H. Carr, and others. In truth, none of the three of us used the term “neoclassical realism” in our respective first single- authored books, but we identified with it. We concluded that neoclassical realism was more than just a one- off moniker for the four books that Rose reviewed. We also believed that neoclassical realism could be a coherent research program. Neoclassical realist theo- ries could explain far more than just the occasional anomaly for structural realism, provided that we could define a coherent scope and content for ( x ) Acknowledgments neoclassical realism to prevent it from being merely a descriptive theory or simply being an underspecified eclectic approach. The co- edited volume Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009) was the first step of our efforts to establish the parameters and scope of neoclassical real- ism. Growing out of a conference at Concordia University in Montreal, we delineated the neoclassical realist understanding of the state as pre- requisite for understanding foreign policy decision making. Our second co- edited volume, The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), further developed our thinking about neoclassi- cal realism, specifically the importance of different great powers’ strategic environments. The present book introduces what we term “Type III” neo- classical realism, a body of theories that purports to explain phenomena ranging from short- term crisis decision- making by individual states up to and including broader patterns of international outcomes and structural change. Our collaboration would have been considerably more difficult before the advent of the Worldwide Web, virtual networks, and Voice over Internet software. We posted draft chapters on a WebDAV hosted at the College of Social and Behavioral Sciences at the University of Utah. Skype greatly facilitated the completion of this book. For the past two years, we held weekly (or at least, bi- weekly) Skype meetings that frequently last two hours. We also held face- to- face writers’ workshops in Chicago (February 2013), Boston (January 2014), and Salt Lake City (January 2015). We are indebted to several institutions for research support: Norrin Ripsman received research support from the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Société et culture, and the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Jeff Taliaferro received research support from the Office of the Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences and the Faculty Research Awards Committee (FRAC) for the Schools of Arts and Sciences and Engineering at Tufts University. Steven Lobell received a University Research Committee (URC) Faculty Research Award at the University of Utah. Over the years, we (both individually and collectively) have received comments from Sammy Barkin, Beth Bloodgood, Mark Brawley, Dale Copeland, Timothy Crawford, Michael Desch, David Edelstein, Mark Haas, Paul Kowert, Rob Krebs, Peter Jackson, Jonathan Kirshner, David Lake, Patrick James, Christopher Layne, Jack Levy, Dan Lindley, Michael Lipson, Sébastien Mainville, Benjamin Miller, Hans Mouritzen, Tudor Onea, John Owen, T. V. Paul, Joseph Parent, Galia Press- Barnathan, Jeremy Pressman, Alex Reichwein, Evan Resnick, Sebastian Rosato, Larry Acknowledgments ( xi ) Rubin, Randall Schweller, Scott Silverstone, Jennifer Sterling-Folker, Asle Toje, Stephen Walt, and Anders Wivel. We are indebted to each of them. We individually tested our arguments and presented parts of this book at Cornell University, the University of Connecticut, Florida International University, University of Haifa, McGill University, the University of Notre Dame, and the Norwegian Nobel Institute. We received excellent research assistance for this manuscript from Brittany Griffin, Shoghig Mikaelian, and Aleksandra Vuldzheva. Brittany also helped format the manuscript. We are particularly grateful to Oxford University Press. We especially want to thank our editor, Dave McBride, who first encouraged us to write this book and who has offered us much encouragement along the way. We are also indebted to Katie Weaver of Oxford University Press for helping us navigate the production process. The three of us also thank our families from the bottom of our hearts for their love and support throughout this long endeavor. Without them this book would simply not have been possible. Norrin M. Ripsman Jeffrey W. Taliaferro Steven E. Lobell Toronto, Canada Boston, MA Salt Lake City, UT September 2015 Introduction Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics BEYOND AN APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF FOREIGN POLICY, TOWARD A THEORY OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS In this book, we forge a neoclassical realist research program for the study of international politics. We argue that neoclassical realist theory can explain political phenomena ranging from short- term crisis decision- making, foreign policy behavior, and patterns of
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