LIFE EXPECTANCY

Key results The remarkable decline in mortality, as evidenced by the increase in life expectancy, is one of the greatest achievements of the last century. Lives continue to get longer, and this trend is predicted to continue. In 2010-15, life expectancy at birth averaged 70.7 years for men and 76.6 years for women. Among women, the figure was highest in Chile (82.6 years), followed by Costa Rica, Uruguay, Jamaica, Panama, Argentina, Mexico and Ecuador, all above 79.0 years. For men, life expectancy at birth was highest in Costa Rica (77.7 years) followed by Chile, Mexico and Panama.

Mortality declines started early in the twentieth This is a worldwide trend, and as a result many century in most countries in Latin America and the countries have increased or plan to increase their Caribbean. By 1950, life expectancy at birth was pension ages. Others have introduced elements into slightly over 50 years in the region, an indicator that their retirement-income provision that will automati- improved by more than 40% in the following 50 years. cally adjust the level of pensions as people live longer. While mortality declined at all ages, the main Both of these options will have to be considered in the driver of the increase in life expectancy at birth was the LAC region as life expectancy estimates continue to reduction in infant mortality rate for several decades. increase and with retirement ages being under 65 in Only by 2005 did the increases in life expectancy at many countries, meaning that retirement duration is birth become slower than those of life expectancy at in fact higher than the figures quoted above. age 65. This decline in old-age mortality is especially Overall, longevity gains are due to rising living important for the finances of retirement-income sys- standards, but also greater access to quality health tems, as older people are living ever longer. In 2010-15, services. While socioeconomic differences at all ages on average in LAC countries, women aged 65 could (and particularly among children) have been signifi- expect to live an additional 18.6 years, which is forecast cant for many years, future declines in mortality are to increase to 22.0 years by 2050-55. Men of the same expected to reduce the gaps currently observed across age could expect to live 16.1 more years in 2010-15, social groups in most countries. with a projected increase of 2.8 years by 2050-55 to reach 18.9 years. Gender gaps in the longevity of older people are expected to remain broadly constant in rel- Definition and measurement ative terms but increase in absolute terms (from 2.5 to Life expectancy is defined as the average number 3.1 years on average in LAC countries). Paying pensions of years that people of a particular age could expect to from age 65 would become around 15-20% more expen- live if they experienced the age- and sex-specific mor- sive under these forecasts. tality rates prevalent in a given country in a particular There is considerable variation between LAC coun- year. Since the determinants of longevity change tries in life expectancy at older ages. are slowly, life expectancy is best analysed over a long predicted to live another 25.8 years on reaching age 65 time horizon. in 2050-55. In contrast, women in are expected to live an extra 15.9 years from age 65 in 2050-55. The figure for Chile is considerably higher than any other Sources and further reading countries, with Belize and Costa Rica being the next Whitehouse, E.R. (2007), “Life-Expectancy Risk and highest at 25.0 and 24.8 years respectively. Pensions: Who Bears the Burden?”, OECD Social, For men there is less variation between countries Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 60, than there is for women. Costa Rica has the longest OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/ life expectancy at age 65 of 22.0 years in 2050-55, fol- 060025254440. lowed by Chile at 21.8 years. Again, Guyana has the Whitehouse, E.R. and A. Zaidi (2008), “Socio-Economic shortest life expectancy for 65-year-old: 13.3 years. Differences in Mortality: Implications for Pension The gender life-expectancy gap at age 65 is pre- Policy”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration dicted to be between two and five years in favour of Working Paper No. 71, OECD Publishing, Paris, women for every LAC country in 2050-55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/231747416062.

42 PENSIONS AT A GLANCE: LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN © OECD, THE WORLD BANK AND IDB 2014 LIFE EXPECTANCY

2.2. Additional life expectancy at age 65, in years, men and women, in 2010-15 and 2050-55

2050-55 2010-15 Women Men 27.3 France 21.7 26.9 Spain 21.8 25.8 Chile 21.8 25.3 Canada 21.8 25.2 Portugal 21.0 25.0 Belize 20.2 24.9 Germany 21.2 24.8 Costa Rica 22.0 24.4 Panama 21.7 24.2 United Kingdom 21.8 24.1 Ecuador 21.4 24.1 Nicaragua 21.3 23.9 Honduras 20.3 23.8 Mexico 21.5 23.7 Brazil 20.4 23.6 United States 20.8 23.4 Peru 20.8 23.1 Argentina 19.0 23.1 Uruguay 19.0 22.8 Guatemala 19.7 22.8 Dominican Republic 20.1 22.7 El Salvador 19.6 22.2 Colombia 19.2 22.1 Bahamas 19.5 22.0 LAC26 18.9 21.4 Venezuela 19.0 20.4 Jamaica 18.0 20.3 Barbados 17.7 19.7 Paraguay 16.8 19.2 Suriname 16.1 18.2 13.5 17.7 Bolivia 15.0 16.1 Haiti 14.1 15.9 Guyana 13.2 30 25 20 15 10 5500 10 15 20 25

Source: , World Population Prospects – 2012 Revision. 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933161434

2.3. Life expectancy at birth, in years, men and women, in 2010-15

Women Men 90 85.2 85.1

85 83.5 83.1 82.8 82.6 82.4 82.1 81.2 80.5 80.4 79.8 79.7 80 79.3 78.1 77.6 77.7 77.7 77.6 77.6 77.5 77.4 77.0 77.0 76.6 76.6 76.2 75.5 74.5 74.2 79.3 73.6 78.8 78.5

75 78.2 78.2 77.7 77.0 76.8 76.4 74.9 74.7 69.3 68.8 73.6 70 73.5 72.9 72.5 72.0 72.0 71.7 71.6 71.3 70.8 70.7 70.3 70.3 70.3 70.2 64.8 70.0

65 68.4 67.7 67.8 66.3 64.9

60 63.5 61.1 55

50

45

40

CRI NIC HTI ESP FRA CAN DEU PRT CHL GBR USA URY JAM PAN ARG MEX ECU BHS BRB COL VEN BRA PER BLZ SLV DOM HND GTM PRY SUR TTO BOL GUY LAC26 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects – 2012 Revision. 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933161442

PENSIONS AT A GLANCE: LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN © OECD, THE WORLD BANK AND IDB 2014 43 From: Pensions at a Glance Latin America and the Caribbean

Access the complete publication at: https://doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2014-en

Please cite this chapter as:

OECD/Inter-American Development Bank/The World Bank (2014), “Life expectancy”, in Pensions at a Glance: Latin America and the Caribbean, OECD Publishing, Paris.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264224964-7-en

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