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R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma Heat Map: Where is the highest water conflict in the world?

Overview of Tigris river, tributaries and water structures feeding Hawizeh marsh

Upper Zone Proposed dam until Iraq border Current dam

Legend tigris_dams 2 Type Û Barrage !( Dam 3 #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Middle Zone until Bagdad

2 Legend tigris_dams Type 3 Û Barrage !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Lower Zone until Hawizeh Marsh

2 Legend tigris_dams Type 3 Û Barrage !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Spatio-temporal vegetation and water Marsh divided into 4 sections  Boundaries based on water and vegetation extent on aerial images and border of countries

 Upper Iraq: 676.25 sq.km (28% of total area)

 Lower Iraq: 783.31 sq.km (33% of total area)

 Upper Iran: 370.27 sq.km (15% of total area)

 Lower Iran: 519.18 sq.km (22% of total area) Total area: 2350 sq.km  Biweekly Modis Terra 16-Day Vegetation Indices 250m (MOD13Q1) obtained and processed from 2003 to 2013  Vegetation indices used are NDVI and EVI  Vegetation was classified as water, vegetation and non- vegetation(bare)

 Temporal vegetation Upper Iraq Water Veg Total area

800 High vegetation in drought

600

400

200 Drought

Area (Sq.km) Area

1/1/2003 4/1/2003 7/1/2003 1/1/2004 4/1/2004 7/1/2004 1/1/2005 4/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 4/1/2006 7/1/2006 1/1/2007 4/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014

10/1/2004 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 10/1/2003 Drought Up iraq: water and vegetation area remained same Lw iraq: water area decreased, vegetation area remained same Water Veg Lower Iraq 800 Total area High vegetation in drought

600

400

200 Drought

Area (Sq.km) Area

Area (Sq.km) Area 50

10/1/2003 10/1/2004 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 Drought Up iran: water and vegetation area remained same Lw iran: water and vegetation area decreased

Water Veg Total area Lower Iran 600 500

400 Completion of dyke 300 Shallow depth => evaporation 200 Drought

100(sq.km) Area

1/1/2003 5/1/2003 9/1/2003 1/1/2004 5/1/2004 9/1/2004 1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014  2003 to 2013 spatio-temporal animation Marsh History  The Hawizeh Marsh is a symbol of Iraq’s rich natural and cultural history  Marsh is fed majorly from Tigris and additional inputs from Karkheh(Iran)  1970’s: Hawizeh area was in natural, undisturbed  not many dams on Tigris  1980’s: Extensive work on drainage under Iraqi army  built dams on Tigris  1990’s: Build more embankments inside marsh and burned vegetation  built dams on Tigris  2003 (freedom): Local people break embankments resulting in recovery of marsh and growth of vegetation  2004: recovered 62% of 1970’s area  2009-2010: Drought resulting in reduction of area 1973 1990 2000 2004 2010 3000 sq.km 90% 33% 62% 33%

Flow into Hawizeh marsh from Karkheh River

2500 ha, 5900 mcm

Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average

% Exceedance

1000 900 Flow without Karkheh dam Karkheh flow 800

700

600 500

400 Flow (cms) Flow 300 200

100

1/1/1982 8/1/1982 3/1/1983 5/1/1984 7/1/1985 2/1/1986 9/1/1986 4/1/1987 6/1/1988 1/1/1989 8/1/1989 3/1/1990 5/1/1991 7/1/1992 2/1/1993 9/1/1993 4/1/1994 6/1/1995 1/1/1996 8/1/1996 3/1/1997 5/1/1998 7/1/1999 2/1/2000 9/1/2000 4/1/2001 6/1/2002 1/1/2003 8/1/2003 3/1/2004 5/1/2005 7/1/2006 2/1/2007 9/1/2007 4/1/2008 6/1/2009 1/1/2010 8/1/2010

10/1/1983 12/1/1984 11/1/1987 10/1/1990 12/1/1991 11/1/1994 10/1/1997 12/1/1998 11/1/2001 10/1/2004 12/1/2005 11/1/2008 Annual Water budgets in 80’s Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris

Average 80’s 22000 Low 80’s 7500 High 80’s 28000

Mosul Mosul Mosul

27000 9000 37000

12000Greater zab 5500 Greater zab 16000Greater zab

7000 Lesser Zab 1500 Lesser Zab 11000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 47000 16000 64000 5000 1000 11000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

42000 15000 53000

Bagdad Bagdad 3500 Bagdad 5000 Diyala 2000 Diyala Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 40000 16000 53000

Amarah

Karkheh Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al

All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm Annual Water budgets in 90’s until Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris

Average 90’s 15000 Low 90’s 2500 High 90’s 23000

Mosul Mosul Mosul

19000 6000 29000

8000 Greater zab 3400 Greater zab 6000 Greater zab

4000 Lesser Zab 800 Lesser Zab 5000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 31000 9000 40000 9000 1000 14000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

22000 8000 26000

Bagdad Bagdad 2800 Bagdad 1800 Diyala 1000 Diyala Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 18000 7000 22000

Amarah

Karkheh Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al

Average 2000’s8000 Low 2000’s 6000 High 2000’s 13000

Mosul Mosul Mosul

9000 5500 16000

4000 Greater zab 3000 Greater zab 6500 Greater zab

1000 Lesser Zab 350 Lesser Zab 2000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 14000 9000 24000 4000 2000 8000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

10000 7000 16000

Bagdad Bagdad 1200 Bagdad 2000 Diyala 600 Diyala Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 8000 5000 13000

Amarah

Karkheh Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al

Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm AnnualTigris Water budgetsTigris belowTigris Kutt Barrage Percentage based on channel capacities Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 40000 16000 53000 High 80’s Average Low 80’s 60% 80’s 24000 9600 31800

25%

Amarah Amarah Amarah

10000 5000 Karkheh 4000 4300 Karkheh 13250 6000 Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al 15% 6000 2400 7950

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 18000 22000 7000 High 90’s Average Low 90’s 90’s 10800 4200 13200

Amarah

Amarah Amarah 5500 8000 Karkheh

4500 5000 Karkheh 1750 2500 Karkheh

Betarra

Al Al 2700 Al 1050 3300

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 8000 5000 13000 High Average Low 2000’s 2000’s 2000’s 4800 3000 7800

Amarah Amarah Amarah

2000 900 Karkheh 1250 270 Karkheh 3250 2200Karkheh

Betarra

Al Al Al 1200 750 1950 Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

Flow intensity, duration, probability below Kutt Barrage

After Kutt barrage Flow diversion into Hawizeh marsh

5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 4000 mcm (330 mcm monthly)

2000 mcm (208mcm monthly) 2000 mcm (208mcm monthly)

Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average

% Exceedence % Excedence

Tigris

Kutt barrage Flow diversion above Flow of tigris towards Amarah barrage Basra

Amarah

Karkheh

Betarra

Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average

% Excedence % Excedence Dams Current Volume Inflow Outflow Evaporation evap/v Future Countr River Volume Dam (mcm) (mcm) (mcm) % reduction (mcm) ol Dams y Batman 1100 1105 874 21% 50 5% Taqtaq Lesser Zab Iraq 2858 Dicile 580 674 659 2% 24 4% Bekhme Greater zab Iraq 8300 Kralkize 1920 342 305 11% 54 3% Bakeerman Greater zab Iraq 500 Mandava Greater zab Iraq 2000 Mosul 11110 18799 17972 4% 416 4% Hakkari Greater zab Turkey 2000 Dokan 6800 5799 4587 21% 309 5% Trib upper Garzan Dibbis 4000 4953 3932 21% 154 4% tigris Turkey 145 Hemrin 2500 3318 2670 20% 78 3% Trib upper Derbinkha Kayser 3000 tigris Turkey 1970 n 3250 2866 12% 142 5% Trib upper Dilini Karkheh 5900 1978 1086 45% 40 1% tigris Turkey 200 Trin upper Tartar 11000 9000 - - 2260 21% Silvan Total 47910 49219 35519 3529 tigris Turkey 1175 800 Cizie Upper tigris Turkey 6000 200 Illisu Upper tigris Turkey 10410 700 Dam effects 27777 5000

600

4000 Flow out with reservoir

500 Flow out without 400 reservoir 3000

Volume with irrigation Flow (cms) Flow

300 Volume (mcm) 2000

200

1000

100

0 0

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 1/1/2 5/1/2 9/1/2 Current and Post Dams Average 2000’s - Current Average 2000’s – Post dams*

Tigris Tigris 6000 *Assumptions based on current dam sizes, 8000 inflow and outflow calculations

Mosul Mosul 7000 9000 2000 Greater zab 4000 Greater zab 1000 Lesser Zab 1000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar 10000 14000 3000 4000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

7000 10000 Bagdad 1000 Bagdad Diyala 1200 Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 4000 50% reduction 8000

2400 4800

1000 900 Karkheh

2000 900 Karkheh

Betarra 600 Al

Betarra 1200 Al Conclusions

 Open source of knowledge about water is key to avoid conflicts  Open source models and data availability publically is very important  Mekong river basin is a good example  The water conflicts are well known in other river basins such as Ganges, Nile, Amazonia, Danube, Colorado and other major rivers around the world.  As SWAT modelers we could model these basins and publish the information in a peer review process to bring focus to the problem and contribute to the awareness to countries that have no or poor information.