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Kathy Kraninger Takes Control of the CFPB

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Kathy Kraninger Takes Control of the CFPB Auto Finance News January + February 2019 | Volume 14 | Issue 1 Compliance update Kathy Kraninger takes control of the CFPB Money matters: Three major accounting 20 changes to watch Cherokee Media Group | 301 Cascade Pointe Lane | Cary, NC 27513 NC Cary, | Lane Pointe Cascade 301 | Group Media Cherokee Permit No. 555 No. Permit E. GREENVILLE, PA GREENVILLE, E. US POSTAGE PAID POSTAGE US PRST STD PRST Learn more at: autointelsummit.com/council Auto Finance News How the CFPB continues to resemble a circus or soap opera SAN DIEGO — Richard Cordray, the fi rst direc- tor of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has been out of the picture for more than a year. His greatest accomplishment could be taking an otherwise boring, administrative government or- ganization and forging it into a broad-sword of political polarization. His failed Ohio gubernato- rial bid means he will be banished to the political version of the “phantom zone” where he will need to rely on his powerful Jeopardy skills to mount an escape. His replacement Mick Mulvaney had to win a JOEL hard-fought court battle (English versus Trump) before even being allowed to serve as the acting di- Source: CFPB Consumer Credit Panel KENNEDY rector. Recently, Mulvaney increased his political power by being named by Trump as acting chief auto loans. Th e most recent snapshot lists a 7.3% Financial inclusion of staff . Mick likes jobs with the title “acting” so increase in year-over-year originations (July 2017 Finally, the CFPB takes a look at access to much! He gets to spend every day acting like he to Jul 2018) with a 2.8 percent increase in year- credit based on neighborhood income levels. As is not working for a “terrible human being” that Thanks to a continual over-year credit tightness (Feb 2017 to Feb 2018). an aside, I personally fi nd this statistic to be a bet- would be disqualifi ed from holding offi ce in an onslaught of data By all measures presented by the bureau, 2017 was ter pulse on fi nancial inclusion than the Bayesian “ordinary universe” – both actual Mulvaney quotes a year of contraction, with 2018 showing a quick Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) statistic that according to Mick are something that he and breaches at banks, reversal of trend. that has been fl atly discredited. Th e good news for Trump giggle about while chasing each other fi nancial institutions this statistic is that across all income levels we are around the Oval Offi ce with the new Nerf blasters Volume seeing positive trends indicating increased access and credit bureaus, they got for Christmas. When looking at total originations (units), to credit for all income groups and geographies. So, we now have an actual second director of consumer data security there was a history of dips in Jan, and spikes in To summarize the CFPB statistics, origina- the CFPB with Kathy Kraninger. Her years of ex- March, May, and August. From 2012 to 2016 we tion volumes, credit availability, and lender man- and data protection will perience in various government offi ces informed were seeing some nice higher Jan lows and higher agement of risk all appear to be trending posi- her fi rst power move: killing the name change defi nitely take a front- March, May, and August highs. Th e May and Au- tive in spite of some pull-backs in 2015 and 2016, from CFPB to BCFP. Th is power move is up there gust volume bumps were playing a greater role in and most profoundly in 2017. Th e credit tighten- seat in the conversation. with George Costanza reorganizing the Penske driving seasonal bumps than even the March tax ing that closed the door to many lower-tier credit File, and equally as substantive. But, let’s not be season bump. Th at trend reversed in 2017, most seekers post 2009 is trending positively again and too tough on Kraninger. To get the role as direc- profoundly in a hard drop in the Aug bump that appears to be ranging to fi nd a settling point that tor, she had to get past Sen. Elizabeth Warren and went from a high of nearly 2.5 million down to does not appear to be anywhere near the never say the words “yes” or “no,” while accusing 2.35 million in August of 2018. Th at trend correct- 2009 levels. Kraninger of possessing ALL of the Infi nity stones ed in 2018 and while we saw a lower January low, AND having them in a secret Infi nity Gauntlet we saw higher March, May and August highs than What Democrats want that will allow her to eliminate half of the CFPB 2017 results. In a recent letter from Warren (dated Dec. 19) staff with a simple snap of her fi nger. Warren left to Kraninger, Warren outlines what she believes the interaction so incensed that her only reason- Lender credit risk Kraninger needs to do. Warren wants to see more able next step (beyond cursing under her breath Th e CFPB created a credit tightness index, fair lending enforcement actions and roll back and practically ripping the microphone out of the which is a ratio of the number of consumers who changes that weakened antidiscrimination pro- podium) was to write a letter to Kraninger politis- applied for credit and did not obtain the request- tections, keep the pressure on companies with ag- plaining to her how to do her job, and form an ex- ed credit. Th e applicant scores are held constant, gressive data collection and continue a broad net ploratory committee for a presidential run. Take making this a measure of lender policies. We see approach to soliciting consumer complaint data, that Kathy! the tightening of credit continue from the 2009 and reverse Mulvaney’s changes to student and I am no James Lipton, but this stuff is so easy starting point (initialized at 100) down to 76.5 in military lending regulation and oversight. While to turn into a script for a crummy soap opera with May of 2015, and slowly creeping back up to 82.48 not directly stated, it is safe to say that. Warren minimal eff ort. What is important for the fi nancial as of February 2018 and showing a positive trend misses Cordray’s “regulation through enforce- services industry, the consumers we serve, and the with higher highs and higher lows form that ment” policies. politicians and regulators is that we get an agenda. low point. By all indications, the points raised by Warren While we can never divorce the political theatrics When considering the credit quality (as mea- are the same that Rep. Maxine Waters, the Dem- from the reality of what the U.S. sured by credit score) of those receiving credit, the ocrat from California, will fi ght for as the chair of really needs to be done, we can take a stab at CFPB tracks lending activity (as measured in ag- the House Financial Services Committee. Hill in- decomposing that situation. We will start with a gregate dollars) for various categories. Deep sub- siders are predicting investigations into prior Mul- review of the key data points that are tracked by prime through subprime saw a pull-back starting vaney’s connections with fi nancial services fi rms the CFPB, and explore the points raised by both in spring/summer of 2015, near-prime and prime and the changes that he made while running the sides that will likely drive the agendas of the saw smaller pull-backs in middle-to-late 2016, and bureau. No doubt whatever is uncovered will Dems and GOP, and try to make sense of a the positive trend for super-prime has maintained have to be answered to by Kraninger, and if the possible direction for 2019. without a retrace. For 2018, deep subprime volume benchmark set by prior chair Rep. Jeb Hensarling appears to be continuing, while subprime is revis- (R-Texas) holds up, Kraninger should expect to CFPB trends on auto lending iting 2015 levels showing some higher highs and be called to testify quite a lot. Th e Democrats will Th e CFPB maintains market dashboards of higher lows. Credits north of these ranges appear surely look to monopolize on political theatrics to consumer credit trends, one of which is one on to be continuing or turning bullish. use as fodder to whittle away Republican control 18 SubPrime Auto Finance News Volume 14 | Issue 1 Source: CFPB Consumer Credit Panel of the Senate and White house. Will they move and the industry it regulates, leaving the heavy tightening is recovering. Without some obvious the Supreme Court (seen as likely within the aggressively out of the gates, or will they bide lift ing to the state attorneys general. To many crisis or something you can demonstrate with next one to two years) then a Democratic presi- their time in hopes of taking over control of the in industry, Mulvaney’s changes did not go far data there exists no impetus for drastic action. A dent could have her removed without cause pri- Senate and White House? enough. A recent letter from National Associa- similar case will have to be made by other fi nan- or to the end of that fi ve-year term. Even under tion of Federally Insured Credit Unions (NAF- cial services markets — particularly student and the scenario that the Supreme Court fi nds the What Republicans want CU) to Kraninger outlines some themes com- pay-day lending, both of which are in the cross- structure to be unconstitutional, Kraninger has Republicans, led by Hensarling, railed mon across the industry; clarity and guidance hairs for now, and something that is not beyond the better part of two years to continue an agen- against Cordray’s CFPB.
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