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The New Physics of Financial Services Understanding How Artificial Intelligence Is Transforming the Financial Ecosystem

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The New Physics of Financial Services Understanding how artificial intelligence is transforming the financial ecosystem Part of the Future of Financial Services series | Prepared in collaboration with Deloitte August 2018 Introductions Foreword Consistent with the World Economic Forum’s mission of applying a multistakeholder approach to address issues of global impact, creating this report involved extensive outreach and dialogue with numerous organizations and individuals. They included the Forum’s Financial Services, Innovation and Technology communities, and professionals from academia and the public sector. The outreach involved over 200 interviews and six international workshop sessions, encouraging collaborative dialogue to discuss insights and opportunities concerning the impact of artificial intelligence within the financial services industry. The holistic and global content of this report would not be as rich without the support of, and contributions from, the subject matter experts who assisted in shaping our thoughts about the future of the impact of AI on the future of the financial services industry. In particular, we thank this project’s Steering Committee and Working Group, who played an invaluable role with their expertise and patient mentorship. Also critical has been the ongoing institutional support for this initiative from the World Economic Forum and the leadership of our chairman, whose vision of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been inspirational to this work. Finally, we are grateful to Deloitte Consulting LLP in the United States, an entity within the Deloitte1 network, for its generous commitment and support in its capacity as the official professional services adviser to the World Economic Forum for this project. Contact For feedback or questions, please 1 Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (a UK private company limited by guarantee [“DTTL”]), its network of member firms and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL, also referred to as “Deloitte Global”, does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a more detailed contact: description of DTTL and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. R. Jesse McWaters, Lead Author This publication contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax or other professional advice or services. [email protected] This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any +1 (646) 623 4500 action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication. Cover image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA) The New Physics of Financial Services | 1 Introductions Editors’ note Artificial intelligence is a critical aspect of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and has emerged as a clear focus of discussions at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting over the past few years. Financial institutions around the world are making large-scale investments in AI, while governments and regulators seek to grapple with the significant uncertainties and growing public trepidation as AI becomes central to the fabric of institutions and markets. The World Economic Forum has a successful track record of providing detailed multistakeholder analysis of the changing landscape of the financial ecosystem, particularly through our Future of Financial Services series. It was clear that a similar approach could cut through the sensationalism surrounding AI to provide valuable insights for the private sector and policy-makers alike. Over the past year, we have engaged in what may be the largest study of its kind into AI in financial services, and through this process we have discovered that the long-term impacts of AI may be even more radical and transformative than we first imagined. Indeed, the central thrust of the document that follows is that the very fabric of the financial services ecosystem has entered a period of reorganization, catalysed in large part by the capabilities and requirements of AI. Our hope is that this document helps you and your institution make informed decisions about how to interpret the evolving role of AI in financial services and navigate the turbulent changes on the horizon. With regards, R. Jesse McWaters Rob Galaski Project Lead, Future of AI in Financial Services Global Leader, Banking & Capital Markets World Economic Forum Deloitte Consulting Past reports from the Future of Financial Services Series (2015) (2016) (2016) (2017) The New Physics of Financial Services | 2 Steering Committee Members of the Steering Committee Solmaz Altin Pierre-Olivier Bouée Nick Cafferillo Chief Digital Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Technology Officer, Allianz SE Credit Suisse S&P Global Vanessa Colella Juan Colombas Robert Contri Head of Citi Ventures & Chief Chief Operating Officer, Global Financial Services Leader, Innovation Officer, Citi Lloyds Banking Group Deloitte David Craig Alain Deschênes Rob Goldstein President, Financial & Risk, Senior Vice President and Chief Chief Operating Officer, Thomson Reuters Operations Officer, PSP Investments BlackRock Rakshit Kapoor Ashwin Kumar Prof. Dr Axel P. Lehmann Group Chief Data Officer, Group Head of Product President Personal & Corporate HSBC Development, Deutsche Börse AG Banking, UBS Daniel Nadler Max Neukirchen JP Rangaswami Chief Executive Officer, Head of Strategy, JP Morgan Chase Chief Data Officer; Head of Strategy Kensho and Innovation, Deutsche Bank Kush Saxena Michael Zerbs Chief Technology Officer, Chief Technology Officer, Mastercard Scotiabank The New Physics of Financial Services | 3 Working Group Members of the Working Group Secil Arslan Tim Baker Beth Devin Head of R&D Special Projects and Global Head of Innovation, Financial Head of Innovation Network, AI / ML, Yapi Kredi & Risk, Thomson Reuters Citi Roland Fejfar Gero Gunkel Milos Krstajic Executive Director – FinTech IBD, Group Head of Artificial Intelligence, Data Scientist at Allianz Group, Morgan Stanley Zurich Insurance Allianz SE Wei-Lin Lee Juan Martinez Lena Mass-Cresnik, Phd Senior Director, Strategy and Managing Director – America and UK BlackRock Growth, PayPal Region, SWIFT Michael O’Rourke Jennifer Peve Jim Psota Head of Machine Intelligence and Co-Head of FinTech Strategy, Co-Founder & Chief Technology Data Services, NASDAQ DTCC Officer, Panjiva (S&P Global) Annika Schröder Nicolas de Skowronski Chadwick Westlake AI Program Lead, Group Innovation, Head of Advisory Excellence, Deputy Senior Vice President, Structural Cost UBS Head, Investment Solution Group, Transformation & Lean, Scotiabank Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd The New Physics of Financial Services | 4 Project Team Members of the Project Team Project Leadership Project Authors The Future of AI in Financial Services project leadership team includes the The World Economic Forum expresses its gratitude tothe following individuals following individuals: on the project team: World Economic Forum LLC Deloitte Canada R. Jesse McWaters, Lead Author, Project Lead Courtney Kidd Chubb, Senior Manager Matthew Blake, Head of Financial and Monetary System Initiative Denizhan Uykur, Senior Consultant Professional Services Leadership from Deloitte Special thanks for contributions from: Rob Galaski, Co‐Author, Project Adviser Alexandra Blickling, Allianz Thorsten Münch, Deutsche Börse Additional thanks The project team expresses gratitude to the following individuals for their contributions andsupport: Emma Barton Jenny Pan Gabriel Brassard Alexandra Romic Kerry Butts Siddhant Sachdev Alexandra Durbak Steven Siegel Maha Eltobgy Elaine Smith Nadia Guillot Hemanth Soni Tiffany Hart Ferdina Yarzada Abel Lee Han Yik The New Physics of Financial Services | 5 Table of contents Preface Context and approach 7 Background The new physics of financial services 17 Executive summary Chapters How will AI reshape financial services? 22 Key findings What are the opportunities and challenges for implementing 55 AI in financial services today? Opportunities, challenges and broader societal implications How is AI being deployed by sectors of financial services? 85 Sector explorations How might the continued evolution of AI affect the 142 future of financial services? Selected “what if?” scenarios for the long-term implications of AI for financial services Concluding thoughts 153 Next steps for the financial services ecosystem 155 Additional Reading 157 Acknowledgements Context and approach Context and approach | History of AI Unlike past ‘AI Springs’, the science and practice of AI appears poised to continue an unprecedented multi-decade run of advancement AI development over time1 Mainframes Semiconductor microprocessors Big data Cloud storage and processing “Internet of Things” 1953 – IBM unveils the IBM 701 “Defense 1971 – Intel launches the Intel 4004 chip, known 1998 – John Mashey popularizes the term “big 2006 – Amazon Web Services (AWS) launches5 2008–2009 – More “things
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