China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
Content 1. General Statement...... 1 1.1 Polyurethane Market Overview and Forecast...... 1 1.2 Polyurethane Index Analysis...... 2 1.3 PUdaily Market View ...... 3 1.3.1 An Analysis of Recent MDI Price Movement in China ...... 3 1.3.2 Wanhua Yantai MDI Plant Resumed Production ...... 3 2. Polyurethane Raw Material Market ...... 5 2.1 Isocyanate Industry Chain ...... 5 2.1.1 Polymeric MDI ...... 5 2.1.1.1 Market Overview ...... 5 2.1.1.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 5 2.1.1.3 Asian MDI Facility Dynamics ...... 6 2.1.1.4 Import & Export Data ...... 7 2.1.1.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 8 2.1.2 Pure MDI ...... 8 2.1.2.1 Market Overview ...... 8 2.1.2.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 8 2.1.2.3 Asian MDI Facility Dynamics（Refer to Polymeric MDI device dynamics） ...... 9 2.1.2.4 Import & Export Data ...... 9 2.1.2.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 10 2.1.3 TDI ...... 10 2.1.3.1 Market Overview ...... 10 2.1.3.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 11 2.1.3.3 Asian TDI Facility Dynamics ...... 11 2.1.3.4 Import & Export Data ...... 12 2.1.3.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 13 2.2 PO/PPG Industry Chain ...... 13 2.2.1 PO ...... 13 2.2.1.1 Market Overview ...... 13 2.2.1.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 13 2.2.1.3 China Propylene Oxide Facility Dynamics ...... 14 2.2.1.4 Import & Export Data ...... 15 2.2.1.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 16 2.2.2 Polyether Polyols...... 16 2.2.2.1 Market Overview ...... 16 2.2.2.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 17 2.2.2.3 China Polyether Polyols Facility Dynamics ...... 18 2.2.2.4 Import & Export Data ...... 18 2.2.2.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 19 2.3 PU Resin Industry Chain ...... 20 2.3.1 AA ...... 20 2.3.1.1 Market Overview ...... 20
China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
2.3.1.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 20 2.3.1.3 China AA Facility Dynamics ...... 21 2.3.1.4 Import & Export Data ...... 22 2.3.1.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 22 2.3.2 BDO ...... 23 2.3.2.1 Market Overview ...... 23 2.3.2.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 23 2.3.2.3 China BDO Facility Dynamics ...... 23 2.3.2.4 Import & Export Data ...... 23 2.3.2.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 25 2.3.3 PTMEG ...... 25 2.3.3.1 Market Overview ...... 25 2.3.3.2 RMB & USD Prices ...... 26 2.3.3.3 Asian PTMEG Facility Dynamics ...... 26 2.3.3.4 Import & Export Data ...... 26 2.3.3.5 Future Market Forecast ...... 28 3. Southeast Asia & India PU Market ...... 28 3.1 TDI ...... 28 3.1.1 Market Overview ...... 28 3.1.2 Price Trend ...... 28 3.1.3 Forecast ...... 29 3.2 MDI ...... 29 3.2.1 Market Overview ...... 29 3.2.2 Polymeric MDI Price Trend ...... 29 3.2.3 Forecast ...... 30 3.3 Polyether Polyols ...... 30 3.3.1 Market Overview ...... 30 3.3.2 Price Trend ...... 30 3.3.3 Forecast ...... 31 4. Polyurethane Products Market Analysis ...... 31 4.1 Flexible Foam ...... 31 4.2 Rigid Foam ...... 31 4.3 PU Resin ...... 32 5. Downstream Industries ...... 32 5.1 Upholstered Furniture ...... 32 5.2 Automobile ...... 32 5.3 Home Appliances ...... 33 5.4 Building Insulation ...... 34 5.5 Light Leather ...... 34 5.6 Footwear ...... 34 5.7 Coatings ...... 34 About Suntower Consulting Limited ...... 35
China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
Graph & Table
Figure 1 China PU Index Trend in May 2020 ...... 2 Figure 2 2019-2020 China Polymeric MDI RMB & USD Price Trend ...... 6 Figure 3 2019-2020 China Pure MDI RMB & USD Price Trend ...... 9 Figure 4 2019-2020 China TDI RMB & USD Price Trend ...... 11 Figure 5 2019-2020 Propylene Oxide Weekly Price Trend ...... 14 Figure 6 2019-2020 China Polyols RMB Price Trend ...... 18 Figure 7 2019-2020 China AA RMB Price Trend ...... 20 Figure 8 2019-2020 China BDO RMB Price Trend...... 23 Figure 9 2019-2020 China PTMEG RMB & USD Price Trend ...... 26 Figure 10 2019-2020 SE Asia & India TDI Price Trend ...... 29 Figure 11 2019-2020 SE Asia & India Polymeric MDI Price Trend ...... 30 Figure 12 2019-2020 SE Asia & India Polyether Polyols Price Trend ...... 31
Table 1 Monthly Polymeric MDI RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 5 Table 2 Asian MDI Facility Dynamics ...... 6 Table 3 China Polymeric MDI Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) ...... 7 Table 4 China Polymeric MDI Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) ...... 7 Table 5 China PMDI Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) ...... 7 Table 6 Monthly Pure MDI RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 8 Table 7 China Pure MDI Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) ...... 9 Table 8 China Pure MDI Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) ...... 10 Table 9 China Pure MDI Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) ...... 10 Table 10 Monthly TDI RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 11 Table 11 Asian TDI Facility Dynamics ...... 11 Table 12 China TDI Im/Export Flow in 2019-2020 (Tons) ...... 12 Table 13 China TDI Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons)...... 12 Table 14 China TDI Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) ...... 13 Table 15 Monthly PO RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 13 Table 16 China Propylene Oxide Facility Dynamics ...... 14 Table 17 China Propylene Oxide Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) ...... 15 Table 18 China PO Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) ...... 15 Table 19 Monthly Polyols RMB and USD Prices Comparison...... 17 Table 20 China Polyether Polyols Facility Dynamics ...... 18 Table 21 China Polyols Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons)...... 18 Table 22 China Polyols Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) ...... 19 Table 23 Monthly Adipic Acid RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 20 Table 24 China AA Facility Dynamics ...... 21 Table 25 China AA, its Salts and Esters Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) ...... 22 Table 26 China AA, its Salts and Esters Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) ...... 22 Table 27 Monthly BDO RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 23
China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
Table 28 China BDO Facility Dynamics ...... 23 Table 29 China BDO Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) ...... 24 Table 30 Monthly PTMEG RMB and USD Prices Comparison ...... 26 Table 31 China PTMEG Facility Dynamics ...... 26 Table 32 China PTMEG Export/Import Flow in 2020 (Tons) ...... 27 Table 33 China PTMEG Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) ...... 27 Table 34 Monthly SE Asia & India TDI Prices Comparison ...... 28 Table 35 Monthly SE Asia & India PMDI Prices Comparison ...... 29 Table 36 Monthly Polyether Polyols Price Comparison ...... 30 Table 37 China BHI Index in 2020 ...... 32 Table 38 China Auto Outputs & Sales in 2020 (Unit: 1,000 units) ...... 33 Table 39 China Household Refrigerator Outputs in 2020 (Unit: 10,000 units) ...... 33 Table 40 China Household Freezer Outputs in 2020 (Unit: 10,000 units) ...... 34
China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
1. General Statement
1.1 Polyurethane Market Overview and Forecast
(RMB/Ton) Sep. Ave. Aug. Ave. Up & Down Remarks Overview & Forecast O: China PO market price went up sharply in September. Bulk/ PO 15,925-16,025 13250-13350 2675,2675 F: PO market has the possibility DEL of continuing high collation in October. O: China TDI market rockets up in
Drum/ early September. TDI 16,575-17,450 12,590-13,270 3985, 4180 DEL F: China TDI market to go up in October. O: The flexible slabstock polyols market price continued to move up Flexible Bulk/ in September . Slabstock 17,500-18,175 13450-13750 4050,4425 F: Slab polyols market is is still Polyols DEL expected to stay at high level. in October .
O: China polymeric MDI market
Polymeric Drum/ rose sharply in September. 16,377-16,930 13,648-14,229 2729, 2701 MDI without DEL F: The polymeric MDI market is anticipated to rise in October.
O: China Pure MDI market rose
Drum/ sharply in September. Pure MDI 17,210-17,730 14,181-14,645 3029, 3085 DEL F: China pure MDI market is anticipated to rise in October.
O: China AA market runs weakly this month on Bank Adipic Acid 5,913-6,100 6,138-6,325 -225, -225 F: The market is expected to draft, DEL. consolidate within narrow range next month. O: China PTMEG market moved
PTMEG up steadily in August. Bulk/Ex- 15,800-17,000 15,500-16,500 300, 500 F: China PTMEG market is (2000) factory expected to be in warm correction in the following month.
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
1.2 Polyurethane Index Analysis
Figure 1 China PU Index Trend in September 2020
PU Index Point
1370 1330 1290 1250 1210 1170 1130 1090 1050 1010 970 930 890 850 810 770 730 690 650 2020/9/1 2020/9/5 2020/9/9 2020/9/13 2020/9/17 2020/9/21 2020/9/25 2020/9/29 Composite Index PU Resin Index PU Foam Index Rigid Foam Index
In September, the PU composite index rose rapidly on the pullback of the soft foam index and rigid foam index. Affected by the anti-dumping of United States on Southeast Asia’s mattress, in mid to late October before the tariff landed, Southeast Asia mattress factories have increased production, driving raw material polyether export market to the good, and the market demand for soft foam increased, export orders obviously picked up. Then the market is still significantly bullish. At the end of the month, the upstream raw material prices of PU rose sharply, sponge factories began to focus on price increases, but the downstream small and medium-sized enterprises were in passive price adjustment with poor performance. In September, soft foam index overall strong pulled up; rigid foam index overall went into narrow correction after the upward trend; shoe soles market was in corrected operation. The production load of main factories slowly picked up, with terminal demand slowly improving, and the actual orders just were supported by the rigid demand. The overall negotiation atmosphere is general. Leather factory orders continued to pick up, and the downstream purchase is given priority to the rigid demand. In September, PU resin index was in upward correction within a narrow range.
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
1.3 PUdaily Market View
1.3.1 Brief Analysis on China's MDI Import and Export in August 2020
PUdaily, Shanghai—
Statistics of China's Import and Export of PMDI for August 2020
Polymeric MDI Import
In August 2020, China's import volume of polymeric MDI was 32,734.84 tons, down by 25.8% QoQ and up by 53.3% YoY.
From January to August 2020, China's cumulative import volume of polymeric MDI was 252,285 tons, up by 23.1% YoY.
Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea were the top three import sources of China's polymeric MDI (by import weight) in August. Polymeric MDI imports from these three countries accounted for 93% of the total volume in the month. Due to the obvious supply and demand gap in Europe and overseas markets, in addition to the mainstream Japanese and Korean manufacturers are approaching the overhaul period of their plants, their supply to the Chinese market contracted significantly out of the need for stocking. Therefore, in August, China's imports of polymeric MDI from Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea showed a decline, down by 28.4%, 3.2% and33.1%respectively…
Source August imports (tonnes) August imports (USD)
Saudi Arabia 15,023 13,723,864
Japan 8,281 8,751,923
South Korea 7,274 10,274,114
Germany 688 1,114,452
Singapore 460 609,055
U.A.E. 240 252,756
Iran 240 216,000
Spain 143 176,042
View online of PUdaily original articles: http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=85391
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
1.3.2 TDI price Consolidates at High Level as Prices for PO and Polyether
Polyols Hit New Highs: How Will the Markets Perform Before the National Day
Holiday?
PUdaily, Shanghai—
Recently, the domestic PO and polyether polyols prices rose continuously, reaching their new highs. Meanwhile, TDI saw a price correction as its trading at high price lost steam. On September 25, offer for PO in Shandong and North China stood at RMB 17,900-18,300/ton. And that in East China was RMB 18,200-18,300/ton DEL in bulk in cash. The prevailing offer for Shandong-originated cargoes stood at RMB 19,500-20,600/ton EXW in bulk in cash. And that for East China and South China-originated cargoes was RMB 20,000-21,000/ton DEL in bulk in cash. Spot offer for Shanghai-originated cargoes stood at RMB 17,200-17,500/ton DEL in drum with invoice included. That for Chinese sources stood at RMB 16,300-16,500/ton DEL in drum with invoice included. As the National Day holiday approaches, how will the TDI, PO and polyether polyols markets perform before the holiday? Today, PUdaily will give you the answer.
TDI: It is expected that the domestic TDI market will be under consolidation before the holiday. In the week before the holiday, the market price will not change significantly, and rigid demand will be the main driver of transactions. After the holiday, the robust exports and recovering domestic demand will enable the manufacturers to gain an upper hand and push up the price.
PropyleneOxide:Lastweek,thedomesticPOpricehitanewhigh,andthemanufacturers’shipmentswere busy. Downstream polyols manufacturers had orders to meet, which supported PO price. In addition, some polyols manufacturers stocked inventories for the holiday, which also provided support for PO price. It is likely thatthemarketwillcontinuetoconsolidateathighlevel.Wewillkeepaneyeondownstreammanufacturers’ inventory levels.
Slab polyols: The PO price consolidates at high level, forcing the polyols price to go up. Supply in the marketremainsstableaspolyolmanufacturers’productionloadsarehigh.Asfordownstreammanufacturers, they will stock inventories for continued production during the National Day holiday. However, as presently the price of slab polyols is high, some downstream manufacturers plan to reduce production and mainly supply their key customers. It is expected that they will reduce their efforts to stock up, thus providing less support for price increase of polyether polyols.
Rigid polyols: The rigid polyols price is supported by high cost. On the demand side, taking a wait-and-see attitude, buyers make purchase only to meet rigid demand. It is expected that rigid polyols market will be under consolidation before the holiday. We will keep an eye on the changes in raw materials costs and demand from downstream sectors.
View online of PUdaily original articles: http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=85371
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
2. Polyurethane Raw Material Market
2.1 Isocyanate Industry Chain
2.1.1 Polymeric MDI
2.1.1.1 Market Overview
China polymeric MDI market price was firm-to-increase in September. The market price continued to rise in the first half of this month, and then in consolidation in the last half of this month. Before the end of this month and followed by the list prices and settlement prices for October from mainstream MDI producers further increased, the spot offers from mainstream traders were also increased. China domestic MDI producers keep production load as 80-90% in September. MDI producers as Huntsman Shanghai and Covestro Shanghai have determined their facility overhaul plan relatively, so they were stocking up for coming overhaul period and further tightened the supplies to the market. In oversea market, Wanhua BC plant has completed their overhaul and restarted from the last half of September. It was heard from the market that Tosoh Japan had shut down its facility since September 14 for technical issue. Covestro Uerdingen’s MDI facility was still under force majeure So the overall supply volume to China domestic market was kept as tightening in September. As for the demand market, the downstream customers had to continue to follow the increasing prices to meet rigid demands and stock up in a certain extent for National Holiday and considering the market price increase expectation in next weeks. The demands from downstream sectors like home appliances, pannels and spray coating continued to performed strongly, the demand from automobiles was also increased. By September 27, the market prices are around RMB 16,800-17,600/ton, up by RMB 1,600 - 2100/ton compared with the prices in the end of last month.
2.1.1.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 1 Monthly Polymeric MDI RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
China RMB/ton 16,377-16,930 13,648-14,229 2729, 2701 Drum/ without DEL
Imports USD/ton 1,814-1,917 1,500-1,544 314, 373 Drum/CIF
Notes: ①RMB Cost=USD CIF price *(1+13%)*(1+6.5%) *Exchange Rate+ Import Port Charge (Only available for calculating the costs of China MDI imports. 13%: VAT rate; 6 .5%: Import duty rate.
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
Figure 2 2019 - 2020 China Polymeric MDI RMB & USD Price Trend
2019-2020 China PMDI RMB & USD Price Trend 25,000 4,000
20,000
3,000
15,000 2,000
10,000
USD/ton RMB/ton 1,000 5,000
0 0 2019/1/25 2019/5/25 2019/9/22 2020/1/20 2020/5/19 2020/9/16 RMB USD
Note: ① RMB refers to E-China, Drum/Ex-Factory; ②USD refers to Drum/CIF China.
2.1.1.3 Asian MDI Facility Dynamics
Table 2 Asian MDI Facility Dynamics
Producer Plant Location Capacity/Ktpa Production Rate
Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. Ningbo, China 400 90% Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. Ningbo, China 800 90% Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Yantai, China 600 70% Covestro Shanghai, China 550 85% BASF Chongqing Chongqing, China 400 80% Shanghai Lianheng Isocyanate Co., Ltd.# Shanghai, China 350 85% Shanghai Lianheng Isocyanate Co., Ltd.# Shanghai, China 240 85% Shanghai BASF Polyurethane Co., Ltd.* Shanghai, China 210 80% Huntsman (Shanghai) Polyurethane Co., Ltd.* Shanghai, China 160 85% Huntsman (Shanghai) Polyurethane Co., Ltd.* Shanghai, China 240 85% Tosoh (Ruian) Co., Ltd.* Zhejiang, China 80 100% Total capacity in China 3,340 Average Operation loads 83.5% loads Tosoh Corporation Nanyo, Japan 400 25% Kumho Mitsui Chemicals Inc. Yeosu, South Korea 410 95% BASF Urethane Co., Ltd. Yeosu, South Korea 250 85% Sadara Chemical Company Saudi Arabia Jubail 400 90% Karun Tehran, Iran 40 75% Total capacity in Asia 4,940 Average Operation loads 79% loads Note: ①“#”meansthe producer only has synthesis facility. ② “*”means the producer only has distillation facility. ③Total capacity is calculated on mother liquid.
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
2.1.1.4 Import & Export Data
Table 3 China Polymeric MDI Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) Month Import Export (HS Code: 39093100) 2019 2020 2019 2020 Jan. 29,900 39,256 54,258 87,724 Feb. 23,980 46,666 Mar. 27,904 25,282 75,657 88,659 Apr. 27,074 33,345 64,148 33,157 May 22,346 36,311 41,984 27,573 Jun. 26,324 26,258 42,592 29,693 Jul. 26,028 44,069 62,104 52,997 Aug. 21,357 32,735 58,146 64,290 Sep. 17,837 48,794 Oct. 18,385 54,484 Nov. 36,721 50,960 Dec. 39,631 39,609 Total 317,487 252,284 624,400 384,092 Aug. Year on Year —— 53.28% —— 10.57% Aug. Month on Month —— -25.72 —— 21.31%
Table 4 China Polymeric MDI Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) (HS Code: Jan.--Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 39093100)
Japan 14,914 5,457 13,142 5,278 6441 8557 8281 62070
Saudi Arabia 24,997 11,106 8,718 13,082 8604 20972 15023 102502
South Korea 10,245 5,204 10,357 16,953 9629 10871 7274 70533
Table 5 China PMDI Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons)
(HS Code: 39093100) Jan.--Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Total
USA 8,528 29,782 8,465 10,907 6278 10295 7079 81334
India 12,029 8,022 734 65 466 1227 3292 25835
Japan 5,513 3,726 1,803 2,948 2065 7883 2805 26743
Vietnam 5,670 5,569 1,703 3,437 5015 3049 3808 28251
South Korea 7,382 2,683 5,054 1,509 4681 5716 4853 31878
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
2.1.1.5 Future Market Forecast
Supply market: Among China MDI producers, Covestro Shanghai (550kton/a) and Huntsman Shanghai (240kton/a) will overhaul from around October 20. As for other Asian plants, both KMCI and BASF Korean will overhaul from the end of October as scheduled. The facility of Tosoh Japan which were shut-down by technical issue from Sept 14, may last for 2 weeks and will restart in the beginning of October. As a whole, the supply volume to China market will be still under tightening in October.
Demand market: the domestic demand market is estimated to be stable in October. The main downstream sectors like home appliance, cold-chain and automobiles are running normally whose manufacturers have stable demand for polymeric MDI, the demand from pipe spraying may fall back as entering traditional low season of construction engineering.
The market price of polymeric MDI in October is estimated to run firm-to-stable.
2.1.2 Pure MDI
2.1.2.1 Market Overview
China Pure MDI market price rose sharply in September. Mainstream MDI producers continue to tighten the supply in September, and the demand from downstream customers was under increasing, so the pure MDI market price rise strongly and step-by-step almost in each week of this month. Downstream plants continued to follow the higher purchasing price and delivering the a part of price increase to their selling prices of their end products. By September 27, the main market prices are around RMB 18,500-19,000/ton, which is RMB 3,300-3,400/ton higher than the prices in the end of last month.
2.1.2.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 6 Monthly Pure MDI RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
China RMB/ton 17,210-17,730 14,181-14,645 3029, 3085 Drum/DEL
Imports USD/ton 1,808-1,834 1,572-1,624 236, 210 Drum/CIF
Note: RMB Cost =USD CIF price*(1+13%)*(1+6.5%)*(1+Anti-dumping Rate) * Exchange Rate +Import Port Charge (Only available for calculating the costs of China pure MDI imports. 13%: VAT rate, 6.5%: import duty rate.
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China Polyurethane Monthly Report 202009
Figure 3 2019 - 2020 China Pure MDI RMB & USD Price Trend
2019 - 2020 China MMDI RMB & USD Price Trend 30,000 4,000
25,000
3,000
20,000
15,000 2,000 USD/ton RMB/ton 10,000 1,000 5,000
0 0 2019/1/25 2019/8/13 2020/2/29 2020/9/16
RMB USD
Note: ① RMB refers to E-China, Drum/Ex-Factory; ②USD refers to Drum/CIF China.
2.1.2.3 Asian MDI Facility Dynamics（Refer to Polymeric MDI device dynamics）
2.1.2.4 Import & Export Data
Table 7 China Pure MDI Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons)
Month Import Export (HS Code: 29291030) 2019 2020 2018 2020 Jan. 6,710 5,704 7,955 8,315 Feb. 6,200 7,894 8,711 8,832 Mar. 8,032 6,682 10,974 12,620 Apr. 9,175 7,628 8,872 4,951 May 6,642 6,474 12,803 3,342 Jun. 3,828 14,481 9,434 4,090 Jul. 6,777 9,347 10,312 7,781 Aug. 6,782 8,002 8,572 8,708 Sep. 8,188 8,740 Oct. 7,055 7,861 Nov. 9,030 8,829 Dec. 8,845 8,648 Total 87,266 66,212 111,710 58,639 Aug. Year on Year —— 17.99% —— 1.59% Aug. Month on Month —— -14.39% —— 11.91%
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Table 8 China Pure MDI Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons)
(HS Code: 29291030) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
Japan 2,282 3,336 3536 2886 4038 7043 3600 3388 30109
South Korea 2,757 4,356 2788 4560 2134 7042 5205 3932 32774
Chinese Hong Kong ------0
Germany 25 -- 31 9 13 7 5 36 126
Netherlands ------158 220 378
Table 9 China Pure MDI Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons)
(HS Code: 29291030) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
Chinese Taiwan 1,341 1,108 1716 976 513 306 987 1456 30109
USA 377 393 674 1206 398 265 683 833 32774
India 901 993 1301 617 571 492 563 1306 0
Vietnam 1,084 1,252 1014 479 226 159 1,233 905 126
Pakistan 280 1,310 1490 -- -- 526 888 526 378
2.1.2.5 Future Market Forecast
Supply market: Among China MDI producers, Covestro Shanghai (550kton/a) and Huntsman Shanghai (240kton/a) will overhaul from around October 20. As for other Asian plants, both KMCI and BASF Korean will overhaul from the end of October as scheduled. The facility of Tosoh Japan which were shut-down by technical issue from Sept 14, may last for 2 weeks and will restart in the beginning of October. As a whole, the supply volume to China market will be still under tightening in October.
Demand market: the domestic demand market is estimated to be stable in October. The demand from main downstream customer of pure MDI is estimated to be stable.
The market price of pure MDI in October is estimated to run firm-to-increase.
2.1.3 TDI
2.1.3.1 Market Overview
China TDI market rockets up and then vibrates down in September. In early the month, the force majeure news at overseas TDI plant stimulates the market atmosphere, and the good export business and recovering domestic downstream demand of TDI at China TDI suppliers drive market price to rocket up. However as the
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price rises up too quickly, downstream users are resistant to follow up the increasing prices, and some traders start to sell TDI to cash the profit, which leads the market to fluctuate weakly in the second half of September.
2.1.3.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 10 Monthly TDI RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sept. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
China RMB/ton 16,575-17,450 12,590-13,270 3,985, 4,180 Drum/DEL
Imports USD/ton 2,450-2,575 1,950-2,100 500, 475 Drum/CIF
Note: RMB Cost =USD CIF price*(1+16%)*(1+6.5%)*(1+ anti-dumping Rate) * Exchange Rate +Import Port Charge (Only available for calculating the costs of China TDI imports. 16%: VAT rate, 6.5%: import duty rate; Anti-dumping rate depends on origins).
Figure 4 2019-2020 China TDI RMB & USD Price Trend
20,000 5,000
19,000
18,000
17,000 4,000
16,000
15,000
14,000 3,000 USD/ton RMB/ton 13,000
12,000
11,000 2,000
10,000
9,000
8,000 1,000 1-Jan-19 1-Apr-19 1-Jul-19 1-Oct-19 1-Jan-20 1-Apr-20 1-Jul-20
RMB USD
Note: ①RMB refers to E-China, Drum/DEL; ②USD refers to Spot Price Drum/CIF China
2.1.3.3 Asian TDI Facility Dynamics
Table 11 Asian TDI Facility Dynamics
Producer Plant Location Capacity/Ktpa Operating Note
Covestro (Shanghai) Shanghai, China 310 100% loads Shanghai BASF Polyurethane Co., Ltd. Shanghai, China 160 100% loads Wanhua Chemical Yantai, China 300 70% load Wanhua Fujian (Formerly Known as SEEC) Fuzhou, Fujian 100 50% loads Cangzhou Dahua Group Co., Ltd. Hebei, China 150 93% loads Gansu Yinguang Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. Gansu, China 100 25% loads
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Yantai Juli Isocyanate Co., Ltd. Shandong, China 80 0 load Xinjiang Juli Xinjiang, China 150 70% loads Lianshi Chemical Huludao, Liaoning 50 Under maintenance Total capacity in China 1,400 Average Production Rate 71% Mitsui Chemicals & SKC Omuta, Japan 120 90% loads BASF Urethane Co., Ltd. Yeosu, South Korea 160 90% loads Hanwha Chemical (KPX Fine Chemical) Yeosu, South Korea 150 100% loads OCI Company Ltd. Kunsan, South Korea 50 100% loads 17 100% loads Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizer Company Limited Dahej, India 50 100% loads KARUN Tehran 40 75% loads Sadara Al Sharqiya, Saudi Arabia 200 50% loads Total capacity in Asia and Middle East 2,187
2.1.3.4 Import & Export Data
Table 12 China TDI Im/Export Flow in 2019-2020 (Tons) Month Import Export (HS Code: 29291010) 2019 2020 2019 2020 Jan. 5,285 2,535 4,882 5,739 Feb. 3,919 6,807 Mar. 3,845 12,558 Apr. 4,168 8,841 May 9,681 14,886 Jun. 3,003 11,712 Jul. 2,440 12,822 Aug. 2,885 12,658 Sep. 2,749 9,092 Oct. 4,901 18,500 Nov. 5,470 13,714 Dec. 2,263 12,514 In total 50,609 138,986 Jan-Oct. Year on Year -- -52.03% -- 17.55% Oct. Month on Month -- 12.02% -- -54.14% Table 13 China TDI Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Total South 78 ------78 Korea Japan 20 ------20 Germany ------Hungary ------Saudi 2,068 ------2,068 Arabia In total 2,166 ------2,166
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Table 14 China TDI Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
India -- 50 ------50
Indonesia 489 1905 ------2394
Taiwan 300 ------300
Philippines 560 400 ------960
Thailand 928 578 ------1506
Malaysia 100 220 ------320
Pakistan 400 300 ------700
Vietnam 1,027 855 ------1882
In total 3,804 4,308 ------8112
2.1.3.5 Future Market Forecast
China TDI market is to go up in October. September and October are the traditional peak seasons of the year and downstream demand for TDI is going up gradually, which is to support local TDI market. Meanwhile, global TDI market is in supply shortage to some extent, and TDI prices in Southeast Asia are quoted at around USD 2,700-2,900/ton CIF, higher than China TDI price and this is to support market price increase in October.
2.2 PO/PPG Industry Chain
2.2.1 PO
2.2.1.1 Market Overview
Propylene oxide goes up sharply this month. This month, the price of PO reached a new peak this year, where it continued to rise under pressure. Downstream cautiously purchased with rigid demand, and watch-and-see the future trend.
As of Sep. 27, the mainstream offer for Shandong- and North China-originated PO stands at RMB 18,200-18,600/ton EXW in bulk in cash. That for East China-originated goods stands at RMB 18,500-18,600/ton DEL in bulk in cash, where the market consolidated and the prices were negotiable. Goods can be delivered around Northeast China.
2.2.1.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 15 Monthly PO RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
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China RMB/ton 15,925-16,025 13,250-13,350 2675, 2675 E-China; Bulk/DEL
Imports USD/ton 1,613-1,663 1,380-1,450 233, 213 Bulk/CFR
Notes: ① RMB Cost=(USD CFR price +Insurance)*(1+13%)*(1+5.5%) *Exchange Rate+ Import Port Charge (Only available for calculating the costs of China PO imports. 13%: VAT rate; 5.5%: Import duty rate but Singapore with zero duty).
Figure 5 2019-2020 Propylene Oxide Weekly Price Trend
Note: ①RMB refers to E-China, DEL & cash payment; ②USD refers to ex-tank East China;
2.2.1.3 China Propylene Oxide Facility Dynamics
Table 16 China Propylene Oxide Facility Dynamics
Producer Location Capacity(Ktpa) Operating Note
Wudi Xinyue Chemical Co., Ltd. Binzhou, Shandong 350 80% Huizhou, CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Company Limited 320 100% Guangdong Jishen Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Jilin, Jilin 300 0 Ningbo ZRCC Lyondell Chemical Co., Ltd. Ningbo, Zhejiang 285 80% Jinling Huntsman New Materials Co., Ltd. Nanjing, Jiangsu 240 100% Shandong Befar Group Co., Ltd. Binzhou, Shandong 280 40% Wanhua Chemical Yantai, Shandong 240 90% Dongying, Shandong Jinling Chemical Co., Ltd. 160 70% Shandong Shandong Sanyue Group Co., Ltd Binzhou, Shandong 240 70% Tianjin Dagu Chemical Co., Ltd. Tianjin 150 30% Hangjin Technology Co., Ltd. (used to be Fangda Huludao, Liaoning 120 60% Jinhua Chemials) Sinopec Changling Refining & Chemical Company Yueyang,Hunan 100 50% Nanjing KUMHO GPRO Chemical Co., Ltd. Nanjing, Jiangsu 100 0 Shandong Daze Chemical Co., Ltd. Heze, Shandong 100 0
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Dongying, Shandong Huatai Chemical Co., Ltd. 80 70% Shandong Dongying, Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Co., Ltd. 70 40% Shandong Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Binzhou, Shandong 62 60% Meizhouwan Chloralkali Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Quanzhou, Fujian 50 100% Hongbaoli Group Co., Ltd Taixing, Jiasu 120 90% Total 3,367 Average Monthly Production Rate 54%
2.2.1.4 Import & Export Data
Table 17 China Propylene Oxide Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) Month Import Export (HS Code: 29102000) 2019 2020 2019 2020 Jan 52,071 49,329 0.016952 9 Feb 24,596 22,129 74.01 0 Mar 35,156 1551 Apr 30,353 6 May 39,176 34 Jun 30,604 85 Jul 38,372 0 Aug 43,960 0 Sep 41,883 0 Oct 51,120 19.96 Nov 34,668 0 Dec 51,978 2.9 Total 473,937 71,458 1,772 9 Feb- Year on Year —— 10.03% —— -100% Feb- Month on Month —— -55.14% —— -100%
Table 18 China PO Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons)
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
Saudi Arabia 27,287 0 27,287
Thailand 6,874 3,943 10,816
Singapore 0 0 0
USA 7146.318 7,197 14,343
S. Korea 8,022 10,989 19,012
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2.2.1.5 Future Market Forecast
This month, the domestic PO market continued to hit a new high, factory displacement is tight. The downstream polyether factory still has orders to be delivered, which plays a certain supporting role for PO. Before the festival, there are still parts of the downstream just need to be stocked, which still has a certain supporting effect on the raw material PO, the market has the possibility of continuing high collation, continue to pay attention to the downstream factory inventory situation.
2.2.2 Polyether Polyols
2.2.2.1 Market Overview
Flexible Slabstocks Polyols
The flexible slabstocks polyols market price continued to move up. PO was at a high price, where the polyether plants was cautious in receiving orders, dominated by the orders in the early stage of delivery, with more resistance in the downstream, where most traders held s wait-and-see stance towards the future market.
As of Sep. 27, the main quotation for Shandong-originated stands at RMB 19,500-20,000/ton in bulk in cash and that for East China- and South China-originated is RMB 20,000-21,000/ton DEL in bulk in cash.
Flexible High Resilience Polyols
Domestic HR polyols market went up. As of Sep. 27, the mainstream offer for 330N in Shandong and North China-originated stands at RMB 19,300-19,800/ton EXW in bulk in cash. That for East China-originated products is heard at RMB 19,800-20,900/ton DEL in bulk in cash.
Polymer Polyols
Domestic POP polyols price went up. As of Sep. 27, the mainstream price for Shandong originated- and North China-originated POP2045 stands at RMB 16,300-17,200/ton EXW in bulk in cash, and that for East China-originated POP2045 stands at RMB 17,000-17,600/ton EXW in drum in cash. Offer for Shandong- and North China -originated POP3628 stands at RMB 16,800-18,000/ton, and that for East China-originated POP3628 stands at RMB 17,500-19,000/ton EXW in drum in cash.
Elastomer Polyols
Elastomer Polyols market ran weakly. As of Sep. 27, the mainstream offer for Shandong-and North China-originated stands at RMB 19,300-20,000/ton EXW in bulk in cash. And that for East China-originated products are heard at RMB 20,100-20,900/ton DEL in bulk in cash.
Rigid Polyols
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Rigid polyols market price ran weakly. As of Sep. 27, the reference price for Shandong-originated rigid polyols slab 4110 stands at RMB 14,500-14,900/ton EXW in drum in cash. And that for East China-originated is RMB 14,600-15,000/ton EXW in drum in cash.
2.2.2.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 19 Monthly Polyols RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Products Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
China RMB/ton 17,500-18,175 13,450-13,750 4,050;4,425 Bulk/DEL Flexible Slabstock Polyols Import USD/ton 1,970-2,000 1,550-1,600 420;400 Drum/CIF Export USD/ton 1,950-2,050 1,600-1,650 350;400 Drum/FOB China RMB/ton 17,300-18,000 14,050-14,500 3,250;3,500 Drum/EXW Flexible Polyols (HR) Export USD/ton 2,000-2,100 1,630-1,650 270;450 Drum/FOB China RMB/ton 15,075-15,625 12,525-12,750 2,550; 2,875 Drum/EXW POP (slabstock) Export USD/ton 2,000-2,100 1,650-1,700 250;400 Drum/FOB POP (HR) China RMB/ton 15,550-16,600 12,750-13,675 2,800; 2,925 Drum/EXW China RMB/ton 17,525-18,225 14,100-14,500 3,425; 3,725 Drum/EXW Elastomer Polyols Export USD/ton 2,050-2,100 1,600-1,650 450;450 Drum/FOB Rigid Polyols China RMB/ton 13,250-13,650 11,225-11,625 2,025; 2,025 Drum/EXW Note: China: ① Flexible Slabstock Polyols brands: 5623, 5613, 560S, 3031K, 5616, etc; ② Flexible Polyols (HR) brands: 330N, 820, 703, 3603, etc; ③ Rigid Polyols brands: Conventional rigid polyols 4110; ④ POP (slabstock) brands: 2045, 2042; ⑤ POP (HR) brands: 3628, 3630, etc. ⑥ Elastomer Polyols brands: 220, 210, etc. Imports: ① Flexible Slabstock Polyols brands include: 5613, 2025A, 5616, etc. ② POP (slabstock) refers to 42-45% solid content polymeric polyols. Exports: ① Flexible Slabstock Polyols includes the MW 3000; ② POP (common-grade) refers to 42-45% solid content polymeric polyols; ③ HR Polyols: MW 4800-5000, such as 330N; ④ Elastomer Polyols: MW 1000 and MW 2000, such as 210/220. RMB Cost=USD CIF price *(1+17%)*(1+6.5%)*Exchange Rate+ Import Port Charge (Only available for calculating the costs of China polyether polyols imports. 17%: VAT Rate; 6.5%: Import Duty Rate but Singapore with zero duty.
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Figure 6 2019-2020 China Polyols RMB Price Trend
Note: ①RMB refers to E-China, Bulk /DEL; ②USD refers to Drum/CIF China.
2.2.2.3 China Polyether Polyols Facility Dynamics
Table 20 China Polyether Polyols Facility Dynamics Producer Location Capacity Operating (Ktpa) Note Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd Yantai, Shandong 400 90% Shandong Longhua Chemical Technology Co., Ltd Zibo, Shandong 380 80% Jiahua Chemical Co., Ltd Binzhou, Shanghai & Fushun 250 70% Shandong Bluestar Dongda Chemical Industry Co., Ltd Zibo, Shandong 330 45% Zibo Dexin Lianbang Industry Chemical Co., Ltd Zibo, Shandong 330 40% Jurong Ningwu New Material Development Co., Ltd. Jurong, Jiangsu 300 50% CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Company Ltd Huizhou, Guangdong 270 100% Jiangsu Changhua Polyurethane Co., Ltd Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu 220 80% Hebei Yadong Chemical Group Co., Ltd Shijiazhuang, Hebei 200 50% Jiangsu Zhongshan Chemical Co., Ltd. Nanjing, Jiangsu 180 50% Fangda Jinhua Chemical Technology Co., Ltd Huludao, Liaoning 170 60% Nanjing KUMHO GPRO Chemical Co., Ltd Nanjing, Jiangsu 130 0% Others 1895 20% Total capacity 5055 Average Monthly Production Rate 56%
2.2.2.4 Import & Export Data
Table 21 China Polyols Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons)
Month Import Export (HS Code: 39072090) 2019 2020 2019 2020
Jan. 57094 39302 52453 59838
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Feb. 37326 49363 42021 50480 Mar. 40290 66544 Apr. 52432 53471 May 46172 66164 Jun. 42509 64410 Jul. 68811 71184 Aug. 48333 62974 Sep. 63666 55467 Oct. 59760 58056 Nov. 93872 58891 Dec. 72983 60428 Total 683249 88665 712063 110318 Feb. Year on Year —— 32.25% —— 20.13% Feb. Month on Month —— 25.60% —— -15.64%
Table 22 China Polyols Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons)
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
India 4751 4653 9404
Vietnam 6799 7518 14316
South Korea 3168 2507 5675
Turkey 3610 4601 8211
Pakistan 2625 2245 4870
2.2.2.5 Future Market Forecast
The raw material PO consolidated at a high price, where the polyether side was passively upward. Polyether inventory remained low, and some plants had a tight schedule, which was dominated by orders in the early stageofdelivery.AffectedbyPO’srunningat a high price, the polyether plant reduced procurement, which to ensure the core consumption as the criterion. It is expected that the flexible slabstocks polyols market is still expected to stay at high level.
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2.3 PU Resin Industry Chain
2.3.1 AA
2.3.1.1 Market Overview
China AA market runs weakly this month. In addition to the overhaul of Haili’s and Shenma’s plant, the overall supply is still sufficient. The downstream demand is weak to support the market. Holders follow the market to offer, and the focus of negotiations weakens slightly.
2.3.1.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 23 Monthly Adipic Acid RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
China RMB/ton 5,913-6,100 6,138-6,325 -225, -225 on bank receipt, DEL.
Exports USD/ton 800-850 800-830 0, 20 FOB
Figure 7 2019-2020 China AA RMB Price Trend
2019-2020 China AA RMB Price Trend 9,500 9,000
8,500
8,000 7,500 7,000
6,500 Unit: RMB/ton Unit: 6,000 5,500 5,000 3-Jan-19 2-Aug-19 29-Feb-20 27-Sep-20
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2.3.1.3 China AA Facility Dynamics
Table 24 China AA Facility Dynamics
Producer Plant Location Capacity/Ktpa Operating Note
Zibo, Shandong 75 Shut down in late Aug. Zibo, Shandong 75 Closed Zibo, Shandong 75 Closed Shandong Haili Chemical Co., Ltd. In the maintenance (since Dafeng, Jiangsu 150 shut down in March 2019) Dafeng, Jiangsu 150 Closed Clear the scar repair in early Pingdingshan, Henan 150 Sep. for several days Henan Shenma Nylon Chemical Co., Ltd. Pingdingshan, Henan 100 80% Pingdingshan, Henan 75 Stable running Pingdingshan, Henan 150 Shut down on Sep. 11 Tangshan, Hebei 75 Regular Kailuan Clean Coal Co., Ltd. Tangshan, Hebei 75 Regular Liaoyang, Liaoning 70 Stable running PetroChina Liaoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Liaoyang, Liaoning 70 Remain off-line Dezhou, Shandong 80 100% loads Shandong Hualu Chemical Co., Ltd. Dezhou, Shandong 80 100% loads Xinjiang Dushanzi Tianli Karamay, Xinjiang 75 100% loads Heze, Shandong 70 Closed Shandong Hongye Group Co., Ltd. Heze, Shandong 70 Closed Heze, Shandong 70 Closed Shandong Hongda Co., Ltd. Heze, Shandong 70 Closed Chongqing 180 100% loads Chongqing 180 100% loads Chongqing Fuxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. Chongqing 180 100% loads Chongqing 180 100% loads Yuncheng, Shanxi 70 Stable running Yangmei Taihua advanced material Co., Ltd. Yuncheng, Shanxi 70 Stable running Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. Yuncheng, Shanxi 70 Closed Total capacity in Asia 2,735 Overall Operating Rate in China 59.0%
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2.3.1.4 Import & Export Data
Table 25 China AA, its Salts and Esters Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons)
Month Import Export (HS Code: 29171200) 2019 2020 2019 2020 Jan. 1,250 603 31,233 29,215 Feb. 947 730 24,933 28,847 Mar. 2,812 31,773 Apr. 1,129 33,739 May 1,123 32,892 Jun. 626 29,266 Jul. 822 26,000 Aug. 900 25,806 Sep. 982 26,337 Oct. 1,011 26,342 Nov. 706 22,338 Dec. 944 25,580 Sum 13,252 1,333 336,239 58,061
Jan-Feb. Year on Year —— -39.34% —— 3.37% Feb. Month on Month —— -22.91% —— 15.70%
Table 26 China AA, its Salts and Esters Exports Top Destinations in 2020 (Tons) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
Singapore 5,603 5,540 11,143
Turkey 3,732 2,548 6,280
South 3,237 3,219 6,456 Korea India 1,943 2,676 4,619
2.3.1.5 Future Market Forecast
On the supply side, the domestic adipic acid plants of Haili are still in overhaul and the overall operation of other domestic adipic acid plants is stable. AA suppliers still have intention to raise the price. As the recent pure benzene price runs weakly, the support to AA market is limtied. On the demand side, in October, downstream TPU, resin, nylon 66 and other markets are expected to continue to pick up in their orders, and the production is acceptable overall, which supports the market to some extent. As for the holders, under the support of the cost, they still have the intention to raise prices. To sum up, with the good news and bad news on the market, the adipic acid market is expected to run narrowly next month.
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2.3.2 BDO
2.3.2.1 Market Overview
China BDO market keeps moving up this month. The overall production load is at low level, the supply side is tight and the low-cost supply from the holders is gradually exhausted, the external offer continues to rise, and the focus of the real offer rises slowly.
2.3.2.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 27 Monthly BDO RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
China RMB/ton 8,200-8,625 7,600-7,975 600, 650 DEL.
Exports USD/ton 1,250-1,280 1,210-1,230 40,50 CIF
Figure 8 2019-2020 China BDO RMB Price Trend
2019-2020 China BDO RMB Price Trend
10,500 1,500
10,000 1,400
9,500
9,000 1,300
8,500
1,200 USD/ton RMB/ton 8,000 1,100 7,500
7,000 1,000 3-Jan-19 2-Aug-19 29-Feb-20 27-Sep-20 RMB USD
2.3.2.3 China BDO Facility Dynamics
Table 28 China BDO Facility Dynamics
Producer Plant Location Capacity/Ktpa Operating Note
60 kt/year and 100 kt/year facilities run Xinjiang Markor Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Korla, Xinjiang 260 regularly, the other 100 kt/year facility
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shut down on Sep. 07 for a week Changlian Chemicals (Panjin) Co., Ltd. Panjin, Liaoning 150 Runs regularly Xinjiang Tianye Chemicals Xinjiang 210 Shut down Shut down on Aug. Shaanxi BDO Chemical Co., Ltd. Weinan, Shaanxi 130 31,restart on Sep.11 Shut down for Shaanxi Ronghe Chemical Co., Ltd. Shaanxi 60 maintenance Henan Kaixiang Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. Yima, Henan 110 Runs regularly Henan Coal Chemical Industry Group Hebi, Henan 100 Runs regularly Sinopec Ningxia 200 50% loads Sichuan Tianhua Fubang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Luzhou, Sichuan 85 Runs regularly Shut down on Apr. 4 Shanxi Sanwei Group Co., Ltd. Hongtong, Shaanxi 75 2019 and restart time is not sure 30 kt/year facility is closed and another Dahua Group Dalian Chemical Co., Ltd. Yizheng, Jiangsu 80 line of 50kt/year shut down on Sep. 1 Chongqing Chiyuan Chemicals Fuiling, Chongqing 60 Now runs regularly Shut down on Aug.30 Fujian Petrochemical Group United Marketing Co.,LTD Quanzhou, Fujian 40 for 7 days, now runs regularly Yunnan Yunwei Co., Ltd. Qujing, Yunnan 25 Closed Runs regularly with Xinjiang Blue Ridge TunHe Energy Co., Ltd. Changji, Xinjiang 200 low loads Shut down on Mar. 5 Inner Mongolia Dongyuan Scien-Tech Co., Ltd. Inner Mongolia 100 and restart on Sep. 7 Two lines run Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua Mining Co.,Ltd Changji, Xinjiang 100*2=200 regularly Xinjiang Xinye Energy Chemical Industry Co., Ltd Xinjiang 60 Shut down Han cheng black cat chemical co. LTD Shaanxi 60 Shut down on Sep. 5 Nanjing Bluestar New Chemical Materials Co., Ltd. Nanjing, Jiangsu 55 Closed Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre Company Limited Yizheng, Jiangsu 100 Closed Shanxi Sanwei Group Co., Ltd. Shaanxi 75 Closed Ningbo Jiangning Chemicals Ningbo 70 Closed Zhongjia Huachen Chemicals Zhejiang 55 Closed Dongying, Shandong Jiatai Petroleum & Chemical Co., Ltd. 13 Closed Shandong Total 2,573 42%
2.3.2.4 Import & Export Data
Table 29 China BDO Im/Export Flow in 2020 (Tons) Month Import Export (HS Code: 29171200) 2019 2020 2019 2020 Jan. 14,014 21,883 10,939 4,856 Feb. 13,571 17,959 9,324 2,311 Mar. 20,127 9,588 Apr. 22,276 9,235
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May 14,973 14,368 Jun. 16,034 10,942 Jul. 19,567 5,269 Aug. 17,441 7,057 Sep. 23,023 5,360 Oct. 15,850 4,695 Nov. 15,573 3,969 Dec. 16,821 5,021 Sum 209,270 39,842 95,767 7,167 Jan-Feb. Year on Year —— 44.42% —— -64.63% Feb. Month on Month —— 32.34% —— -75.21%
2.3.2.5 Future Market Forecast
On the supply and demand side, the overall production load of domestic BDO industry has been raised to about 50% and the supply recovers slowly.
As for the downstream, with the traditional small peak season, TPU, resin and other fields of demand slowly pick up, downstream product prices increase in a certain degree.
As for the holders, the supply side in the market is not significantly alleviated and they keep the mentality of raising prices with limited spots.
It is expected that next month the domestic BDO market will continue going up to some extent.
2.3.3 PTMEG
2.3.3.1 Market Overview
China PTMEG market rises steadily this month. The demand in the downstream, spandex, looks better. The bullish mentality keeps in the future, coupled with the recent rise in raw material BDO to give certain support to the market, holders raise slightly under the support of costs.
Regarding to spandex field, mainstream prices for PTMEG 1800 mol/g are heard at RMB 14,000-14,800/ton, up by RMB 300/ton compared with last month. And the actual negotiated prices at RMB 13,900-14,500/ton.
As for non-spandex field, the transaction prices are closing to low end. Spot prices for PTMEG 2000 mol/g are offered at RMB 15,800-17,000/ton, up by RMB 300-500/ton compared with last month. Meanwhile, mainstream price of PTMEG 1000 mol/g is quoted at RMB 16,300-17,800/ton, up by RMB 300/ton compared with last month.
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2.3.3.2 RMB & USD Prices
Table 30 Monthly PTMEG RMB and USD Prices Comparison
Sep. Aug. Grade Types Unit Fluctuation Remarks Average Price Average Price China RMB/ton 14,000-14,800 14,000-14,500 0, 300 Bulk/Ex-factory 1800 mol/g Taiwan Dairen USD/ton 1,860-1,880 1,830-1,850 30, 30 Bulk/CIF Mitsubishi USD/ton 2,800-2,900 2,800-2,900 0, 0 Drum/CIF 1000 mol/g Taiwan Darien USD/ton 2,080-2,120 2,050-2,080 30, 40 Drum/CIF China RMB/ton 15,800-17,000 15,500-16,500 300, 500 Drum/Ex-factory 2000 mol/g Mitsubishi USD/ton 2,700-2,800 2,700-2,800 0, 0 Drum/CIF Taiwan Darien USD/ton 1,980-2,000 1,950-1,970 30, 30 Drum/CIF Notes: ① RMB Cost=USD CIF price *(1+17%)*(1+3%) *Exchange Rate+ Import Port Charge (Only available for calculating the costs of China PTMEG imports. 17%: VAT rate; 3%: Import duty rate) ② n/crefersto“NoChange” Figure 9 2019-2020 China PTMEG RMB & USD Price Trend
2019-2020 China PTMEG RMB/USD Price Trend 22,500 3,400 21,500 3,200 20,500
3,000
19,500 2,800 18,500
RMB/ton 2,600 USD/ton 17,500 2,400
16,500 2,200
15,500 2,000 3/Jan/19 2/Aug/19 29/Feb/20 27/Sep/20 RMB USD
Note: ①RMB refers to E-China, 2000 mol/g Drum/Ex-factory; ②USD refers to Drum/CIF China.
2.3.3.3 Asian PTMEG Facility Dynamics
Table 31 China PTMEG Facility Dynamics Producer Plant Location Capacity/ktpa Production Note Hangzhou, Hangzhou Sanlong New Materials Co., Ltd. 60 Runs normally Zhejiang Shanghai BASF Shanghai 110 Runs normally One line runs regularly, one line Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua Mining Co.,Ltd Xinjiang 60 shut down Hyosung Chemical Fiber (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. Jiaxing, Zhejiang 130 Two lines run regularly Hongtong, Shanxi Sanwei Co., Ltd. 50 Shut down Shanxi
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Sichuan Tianhua Fubang Chemical Industry Co., Luzhou, Sichuan 46 Runs normally Ltd. Dahua Group Dalian Chemical Co., Ltd Yizheng, Jiangsu 40 Shut down Changlian Chemicals (Panjin) Co., Ltd Panjin, Liaoning 60 Runs normally Chongqing Chiyuan Chemicals Chongqing 46 Runs normally Shut down in late Aug. and restart Shaanxi BDO Chemical Co., Ltd Weinan, Shaanxi 46 on Sep. 13 Sinopec Great Wall Energy and Chemical Co., Ningxia 46 60-70% loads Ltd. Henan Coal Chemical Industry Group Hebi, Henan 60 Shut down Xinjiang Blue Ridge TunHe Energy Co., Ltd. Changji, Xinjiang 46 Runs regularly Markor Xinjiang 50 Runs regularly Total Capacity in China 896 Overall Operating Rate in China 61%
2.3.3.4 Import & Export Data
Table 32 China PTMEG Export/Import Flow in 2020 (Tons) Month Import Export (HS Code: 39072010) 2019 2020 2019 2020 Jan. 5,289 3,080 316 1,052 Feb. 2,564 4,659 822 946 Mar. 3,791 1,034 Apr. 6,251 1,327 May 3,866 1,556 Jun. 3,929 912 Jul. 5,285 896 Aug. 4,146 698 Sep. 4,542 728 Oct. 4,358 863 Nov. 4,753 871 Dec. 4,840 1,627 Sum 53,613 7,739 11,550 1,998 Jan-Feb. Year on Year —— -1.46% —— 75.52% Feb. Month on Month —— 81.70% —— 15.04%
Table 33 China PTMEG Imports Top Origins in 2020 (Tons) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
Taiwan, 2,451 3,347 5,797 China South 529 975 1,503 Korea Japan 99 327 426
America 0 0 0
England 0 4 4
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2.3.3.5 Future Market Forecast
PTMEG is expected to rise steadily in the following month on the back of increasing BDO price and increased demand. On the supply side, the overall production of PTMEG plants runs stably and the increase of BDO market supports the cost. Most domestic PTMEG manufacturers still have intention to raise their offers by different degrees. In terms of import prices in October, the prices in U.S dollars in Dalian keep going up. Under the traditional peak season, the overall production of downstream spandex, TPU, resin, shoe soles, etc. is acceptable, giving certain support to the market. As for the holders, supported by the cost, they are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer is on the high end. To sum up, it is expected that the domestic PTMEG market will rise next month.
3. Southeast Asia & India PU Market
3.1 TDI
3.1.1 Market Overview
In September, Southeast Asia (hereinafter referred to as SE A or SE Asia) TDI market goes up due to supply shortage. The prices from Korea, Japan and China to SE Asia were reported at around USD 2,700-2,900/ton CIF for September and October shipment, an increase of USD 600-700/ton compared with that of August. Suppliers are still quite firm on offering at present due to the global supply shortage, but foam producers are cautious on buying stocks as prices rise up so quickly in recent month, and they hold wait-and-see stance on further trend.
TDI market in India has improved over the last two weeks. According to market sources, both of GNFC plants are running normally at full rate currently.
3.1.2 Price Trend
Table 34 Monthly SE Asia & India TDI Prices Comparison
Types Unit Sept. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
SE Asia USD/ton 2,500-2,650 1,950-2,000 550, 650 Drum/CIF
India USD/ton 2,500-2,650 1,950-2,000 550, 650 Drum/CIF
Note: covered countries in Southeast Asia include Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore
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Figure 10 2019-2020 SE Asia & India TDI Price Trend
5,200
4,200
3,200 USD/ton 2,200
1,200
200 01-Jan-19 01-Mar-19 01-May-19 01-Jul-19 01-Sep-19 01-Nov-19 01-Jan-20 01-Mar-20 01-May-20 01-Jul-20 01-Sep-20
SE Asia India China Asia Toluene
3.1.3 Forecast
Southeast Asia & India: TDI market in SE Asia and India is expected to remain firm in first half of October. TDI price in Southeast Asia have climbed for another USD 200/ton in the second half of September, and market price is to run firmly supported by supply shortage in the region. But further price increase in October will be decided by the supply and demand condition in future.
3.2 MDI
3.2.1 Market Overview
In Southeast Asia, the polymeric MDI market increased in September. Offers in SE Asia increased to around USD 1,900 - 2,000/ton CIF with cargoes from China, Japan and South Korea suppliers, which were USD 350 - 400/ton higher than the offers in last month.
In India, MDI market increased in September. The CIF offers for India market increased to around USD 1,900 - 1,950/ton CIF, which were USD 450/ton higher than the offers in last month.
3.2.2 Polymeric MDI Price Trend
Table 35 Monthly SE Asia & India PMDI Prices Comparison Types Unit September Average Price August Average Price Fluctuation Remarks SE Asia USD/ton 1,900-2,000 1,550-1,600 350, 400 Drum/CIF India USD/ton 1,900-1,950 1,450-1,500 450, 450 Drum/CIF
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Note: covered countries in Southeast Asia include Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore
Figure 11 2019-2020 SE Asia & India Polymeric MDI Price Trend
2019 - 2020 SE Asia & India Polymeric MDI Price Trend
2,500
2,000
1,500
USD/ton 1,000
500
0 1-Jan-19 1-Mar-19 1-May-19 1-Jul-19 1-Sep-19 1-Nov-19 1-Jan-20 1-Mar-20 1-May-20 1-Jul-20 1-Sep-20
SE Asia India Asia benzene
3.2.3 Forecast
Southeast Asia & India PMDI: The PMDI market price in Southeast Asia is estimated to rise in October. The goods supplies from MDI producers in both Asia and Europe to Southeast Asia and India market will still be under tightening. The demand is estimated to run stably. The PMDI market price in India is also estimated to rise considering that the supply will still be under tightening and the price will rise in almost each regions of Asia. The actual transaction volume in India is estimated to be flat.
3.3 Polyether Polyols
3.3.1 Market Overview
Southeast Asia (hereinafter referred to as SE Asia) polyols market keeps firm in reporting period. Demand is flat. Downstream makes purchase only based on rigid needs.
Flexible slab polyols offerings are currently heard at around USD 1,600-1,650/ton CIF SE Asia in drum.
3.3.2 Price Trend
Table 36 Monthly Polyether Polyols Price Comparison
Types Unit Sep. Average Price Aug. Average Price Fluctuation Remarks
SE Asia USD/ton 1800-2050 1,600-1,650 200, 400 Drum/CIF
India USD/ton 2,000-2,400 1,580-1,650 420, 750 Drum/CIF
South Korea USD/ton 1,800-2,070 1,600-1,670 200, 400 Drum/FOB
Note: Covered countries in Southeast Asia include Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore
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Figure 12 2019-2020 SE Asia & India Polyether Polyols Price Trend
3.3.3 Forecast
SE Asia and India polyether polyols market is expected to maintain stable in next reporting period. Though traditional high-season for polyols is near, downstream demand still too weak to support market to goes upwards. Most of the market players might still hold wait-and-see attitude.
4. Polyurethane Products Market Analysis
4.1 Flexible Foam
The flexible slabstocks polyols was in strong consolidation. Affected by the anti-dumping of the United States to Southeast Asia mattresses, the mattress plants in Southeast Asia increased production one after another before the tariff took effect in late October, which promoted the export market of raw material polyether to be favorable. In view of the increase in flexible slabstocks polyols demand, export orders had picked up significantly, where the traders still held a bullish attitude towards the future market. With the arrival of the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season, under the favorable national policy, operation rate of downstream industries had increased, where the demand in the near future had shown favorable trend.
4.2 Rigid Foam
The rigid foam industry runs weakly. Affected by the spread of coronavirus in many countries around the world, the automotive production rate in China is still low. Spraying and thermal insulation has been started since the middle of March, but the operating rate is also not high. The home appliance industry in China has resumed production. The price of 141B runs smoothly.
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4.3 PU Resin
China shoe soles market runs into stable correction overall, the main factories increase their production load slowly, and the terminal demand improves significantly. The market is supported by actual rigid demand, and the overall transaction atmosphere was general. At present, the prices of ordinary bottom material in East China were around RMB 13,000-15,000/ton for delivery, most of which were concluded according to the actual negotiation prices.
China PU resin market ran warmly. As the rise of upstream raw material, pure MDI, and the weak correction of DMF, cost pressure remains. The prices of resin are uniformly increased by RMB 1,200/ton (including wet dry process). The production load of main factories improves significantly. Tannery orders pick up slowly. The downstream purchase was based on rigid demand, with moderate actual orders followed up. At present, the reference prices of ordinary wet process in East China were RMB 8,900-9,400/ton. At present, the reference prices of ordinary stem-cell process in East China were RMB 9,400-10,400/ton.
5. Downstream Industries
5.1 Upholstered Furniture
According to National building materials circulation association, sales amount in August totaled up RMB 75.29 billion throughout the month, an increase of 16.11% month on month and a decrease of 6.74% year on year. Besides, from January to August, the cumulative sales amount was RMB 415.41 billion, declined by 33.75% year on year.
August, the traditional weak season of building materials market, sees the BHI index rise up to 101.93, a historical high this year, which indicates that China building materials market has returned to normal running now.
Table 37 China BHI Index in 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun Jul. Aug Sep Oct. Nov. Dec. BHI Index 73.99 77.39 71.92 85.73 89.13 83.85 85.03 101.93 MOM (%) -19.74 3.40 29.64 13.81 3.40 -0.32 0.52 17.36 YOY (%) -5.83 1.01 -32.99 -15.96 -24.12 -24.84 -20.51 0.85
5.2 Automobile
According to statistical analysis from China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM), China automobile output and sales continuously increased YoY.
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Table 38 China Auto Outputs & Sales in 2020 (Unit: 1,000 units) Automobile Total Passenger Cars Commercial Cars Month Output Sales Output Sales Output Sales Output Sales Output Sales Output Sales YOY YOY YOY YOY YOY YOY Jan. 1,767 1,927 -25.4% -18.7% 1,436 1,607 -28.1% -20.6% 331 320 -10.5% -7.5% Feb. 285 310 -79.8% -79.1% 195 224 -82.9% -81.7% 89 86 -66.9% -67.1% Mar. 1446 1456 -43.47% -42.22% 1073 1068 -48.66% -47.10% 373 388 -20.30% -22.55% Apr. 2102 2070 2.44% 4.49% 1587 1536 -4.46% -2.48% 514 534 31.12% 31.66% May 2187 2194 18.34% 14.69% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00% June 2325 2300 22.69% 11.87% 1798 1764 12.52% 2.08% 527 536 78.04% 62.92% July Aug Sep Oct Nov
Dec
Total 10112 10257 —— —— 6089 6199 —— —— 1834 1864 —— ——
5.3 Home Appliances
Table 39 China Household Refrigerator Outputs in 2020 (Unit: 10,000 units) Household Refrigerator Outputs YOY Jan.-20 491.3 -28.1% Feb.-20 205.4 -58.19% Mar.-20 656 -8.8% Apr.-20 677.8 -5.0% May-20 749.0 1.7% Jun.-20 794.0 17.6% Jul.-20 814.7 29.7% Aug.-20 Sep.-20 Oct.-20 Nov.-20 Dec.-20 Total 4,388.20 -3%
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Table 40 China Household Freezer Outputs in 2020 (Unit: 10,000 units) Household Freezer Outputs YOY Jan. -20 185.6 -30.82% Feb.-20 81 -56.36% Mar.-20 259 -1.1% Apr.-20 294.3 12.9% May-20 297.3 18.9% Jun.-20 295.4 39.5% Jul.-20 331.9 24.2% Aug.-20 Sep.-20 Oct.-20 Nov.-20 Dec.-20 Total 1,744.50 10%
5.4 Building Insulation
From January 2020 to August 2020, China's investment in real estate development totals RMB 8.8454 trillion, up 4.6% year on year.
During this period, the area of buildings under construction is 984.86 million square meters, a year-on-year drop of 3.3%.
5.5 Light Leather
China produced 259 million square meters of light leather from January to June in 2020, down by 9.8% co mpared to the same period in 2019, according to data released by the national bureau of statistics.
5.6 Footwear
The total outputs of leather boots from January to June in 2020 reach around 1.7 billion pairs, decreasing by 15% compared with 2019.
5.7 Coatings
China’s total coating output in 1st half of 2019 is around 9,645 thousand tons, registering an increase of 4.8% year on year. The main business income is around 149 billion RMB in the 1st half year, down by 1.0% year on year. The profit is 9.82 billion RMB, down by 7.1% year on year.
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About Suntower Consulting Limited
Suntower Consulting Limited professionalizes itself in polyurethane market analysis as a consulting organization. Comprised of an experienced research team, it focuses on studies of the PU industry chain. Through close and constant interaction with industry insiders, the team is dedicated to provide customers with quick, precise and useful market information.
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