Friedrich Hayek
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The Allais Paradox: What It Became, What It Really Was, What It Now Suggests to Us
Economics and Philosophy (2019), 35, 423–459 doi:10.1017/S0266267118000469 ARTICLE The Allais paradox: what it became, what it really was, what it now suggests to us Philippe Mongin GREGHEC, 1 rue de la Libération, F-78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France Email: [email protected] (Received 11 June 2018; revised 24 August 2018; accepted 27 August 2018; first published online 30 January 2019) Abstract Whereas many others have scrutinized the Allais paradox from a theoretical angle, we study the paradox from an historical perspective and link our findings to a suggestion as to how decision theory could make use of it today. We emphasize that Allais proposed the paradox as anormativeargument, concerned with ‘the rational man’ and not the ‘real man’,touse his words. Moreover, and more subtly, we argue that Allais had an unusual sense of the normative, being concerned not so much with the rationality of choices as with the rationality of the agent as a person. These two claims are buttressed by a detailed investigation – the first of its kind – of the 1952 Paris conference on risk, which set the context for the invention of the paradox, and a detailed reconstruction – also the first of its kind – of Allais’s specific normative argument from his numerous but allusive writings. The paper contrasts these interpretations of what the paradox historically represented, with how it generally came to function within decision theory from the late 1970s onwards: that is, as an empirical refutation of the expected utility hypothesis, and more specifically of the condition of von Neumann–Morgenstern independence that underlies that hypothesis. -
Maurice Allais on Equilibrium and Capital in Some of His 1940S Writings
QUADERNI DEL DIPARTIMENTO DI ECONOMIA POLITICA E STATISTICA Ariel Dvoskin Maurice Allais on Equilibrium and Capital in some of his 1940s Writings n. 690 – Dicembre 2013 Abstract - The article discusses M. Allais’ contributions on equilibrium and capital during the 1940s. While in his Traité (1943) Allais formalizes for the first time an intertemporal general equilibrium (IGE) in a finite- horizon economy, he subsequently abandons this notion, and in the Économie (1947) resumes, instead, the more traditional method based on the notion of stationary equilibrium. The article argues: i) that Allais’ reasons to leave the IGE framework behind, of which the most important turn round his misgivings about the sufficiently correct foresight entailed by that notion, and that reflect the impossibility to establish a correspondence between observations and theory by means of the IGE method, are well-justified; ii) that his shift to the method based on the notion of stationary equilibrium to connect the results of neoclassical theory with observations cannot be accepted, since a notion of stationary equilibrium that would make this correspondence possible must face an insurmountable difficulty in the treatment of the factor capital. Keywords: Allais, Intertemporal Equilibrium, Stationary Equilibrium, Perfect Foresight, Centre of Gravitation JelClassification: B21-B30- B41-D50-D24 The author is grateful to professors F. Petri, A. Béraud and S. Fratini for their very helpful comments to previous drafts of this article. Thanks are also due to N. Semboloni of the library of the Faculty of Economics, University of Siena. The usual disclaimers apply. Ariel Dvoskin, University of Siena (Italy) and University of Buenos Aires (Argentina). -
Report on H. Allais' Scientific Work
REPORT ON H. ALLAIS' SCIENTIFIC WORK * by Jean-Michel Grandmont Juin 1988 N° 8819 * CNRS and CEPREMAP, 142, rue du Chevaleret, 75013 Paris, France. REPORT ON H. ALLAIS' SCIENTIFIC tlORK ABSTRACT The report reviews brfefly the main scientific contributions in economics of Maurice ALLAIS, with specific emphasis on theory. KeYWords Maurice ALLAIS, equilibrium, welfare, uncertainty JEL code 020, 131 - - - - -- - -- - -- - - - -- - RAPPORT SUR L 'OEUVRE SCIENTIFIQUE DE H. ALLAIS RESUHE Le rapport évalue brièvement les principales contributions scientifiques en économie de Maurice ALLAIS, en portant l'accent sur la théorie. Mots clés Maurice ALLAIS, équilibre, bien-être, incertitude Code JEL 020, 131 REPORT ON H. ALLAIS' SCIENTIFIC tlORK J.M. Grandmont, June 1988 Maurice ALLAIS is without any doubt one of the most outstanding economists of his generation. He has had in particular a decisive direct and indirect influence from 1945 onward, on the development of economic research in France, and its subsequent opening to the international scientific community. Being initially an engineer himself, he has been teaching economics at the Ecole des Mines in Paris until the seventies, and managed to attract around him after World War II a brilliant cadre of young economists or gradua tes, such as Marcel BOITEUX, Gérard DEBREU, Jacques LESOURNE, Edmond MALINVAUD, André NATAF ••• The impact of Maurice ALLAIS on the state of our di sc ip l ine in France and at ·the international leve 1, has been indeed trèmendous, not only through his own great scientific achievements but also those of his students or disciples. 1. An anecdote circulates among French economists, claiming that the respective careers of two students of ALLAIS, i.e. -
Ludwig Von Mises—A Primer
Ludwig von Mises—a Primer Eamonn Butler CIS Occasional Paper 120 2010 First published in Great Britain in 2010 by The Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street Westminster London SW1P 3LB in association with Profi le Books Ltd Copyright © The Institute of Economic Affairs 2010 Published in December 2010 by The Centre for Independent Studies Limited PO Box 92, St Leonards, NSW, 1590 Email: [email protected] Website: www.cis.org.au The views expressed in this publication are, as in all IEA publications, those of the author and not those of the institute (which has no corporate view), its managing trustees, Academic Advisory Council members or senior staff. National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication Data: Butler, Eamonn. Ludwig von Mises : a primer / Eamonn Butler ; foreword by Steven Baker. 9781864321296 (pbk.) CIS occasional papers ; 120. Von Mises, Ludwig, 1881-1973. Economists--Austria--Biography. Austrian school of economics. Centre for Independent Studies (Australia) 330.157092 ©2010 The Institute of Economic Affairs Cover design by Ryan Acosta Cover image by Briggs from Ludwig von Mises Institute website http://mises.org Printed by Ligare Book Printer Typeset in Adobe Garamond and Frugal Sans Ludwig von Mises – a Primer EAMONN BUTLER The Institute of Economic Affairs CONTENTS The author 9 Foreword by Steven Baker 10 Summary 13 1 Why Mises is important 17 Intellectual contributions 18 2 Life, career and writings 25 Career in Europe and America 25 Writings on economics, political science and method 28 The legacy of -
MONT PELERIN SOCIETY by Eamonn Butler Based on a History of the Mont Pelerin Society by Max Hartwell
A SHORT HISTORY OF THE MONT PELERIN SOCIETY By Eamonn Butler Based on A History of the Mont Pelerin Society by Max Hartwell INTRODUCTION In 1995 the Liberty Fund published A History of the Mont Pelerin Society, written by the Oxford historian (and past President of the Society), Professor Max Hartwell. The book is comprehensive, but is now difficult to obtain; and much has happened since 1995. So the Board of the Society asked me to précis the History and bring it up to date, giving members and prospective members a short guide to the history and ethos of the Society and to some of the key individuals and events that have shaped it. The Society and I are very grateful to the family of our friend Max Hartwell for their permission to borrow very heavily from his work. WHAT IS THE MONT PELERIN SOCIETY? Hartwell opens his History by saying that the Mont Pelerin Society is “not well known” and has “no demonstrably proven role in world affairs.” Many of its individual members, by contrast have indeed been well known and influential. Some have become senior government ministers (such as Sir Geoffrey Howe of the United Kingdom, Antonio Martino of Italy, Ruth Richardson of New Zealand, and George Shultz of the United States) or senior officials (e.g. former Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns). A few have even become presidents or prime ministers (among them Ludwig Erhard of Germany, Luigi Einaudi of Italy, Mart Laar of Estonia, Ranil Wickremasinghe of Sri Lanka and Václav Klaus of the Czech Republic). -
New Paradoxes in Intertemporal Choice
Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 6, No. 2, February 2011, pp. 122–129 New paradoxes in intertemporal choice Li-Lin Rao∗ Shu Li† Abstract Similar to research on risky choice, the traditional analysis of intertemporal choice takes the view that an individual behaves so as to maximize the discounted sum of all future utilities. The well-known Allais paradox contradicts the fundamental postulates of maximizing the expected value or utility of a risky option. We describe a violation of the law of diminishing marginal utility as well as an intertemporal version of the Allais paradox. Keywords: intertemporal choice, risky choice, cancellation. 1 Introduction The most prominent idea to account for these anoma- lies is the hyperbolic discounting model (Ainslie, 1975). In the field of intertemporal choice, the discounted-utility This model suggests that the discount rate is not dy- (DU) theory proposed by Paul Samuelson in 1937 was namically consistent but that the rate is higher be- presented not only as a valid normative standard but also tween the present and near future and lower between as a descriptive theory of actual intertemporal choice be- the near and far distant future. Numerous theories have havior (Frederick, Loewenstein, & O’Donoghue, 2002; been developed by transforming the discount function Samuelson, 1937). In its general form, the DU theory to other forms, from one-parameter hyperbolic discount- proposes that the value of an option, (x; t), is the prod- ing (Mazur, 1984) to generalized hyperbolic discounting uct of its present utility, U(x), and an exponential tem- (Loewenstein & Prelec, 1992), to proportional discount- poral discounting function, F(t), where t is the time at ing (Harvey, 1994), and to quasi-hyperbolic discount- which x is acquired. -
MAURICE ALLAIS Ecole Nationale Superieure Des Mines De Paris Et Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique - France
AN OUTLINE OF MY MAIN CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMIC SCIENCE Nobel Lecture, December 9, 1988 by MAURICE ALLAIS Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris et Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - France The Nobel Prize which has been awarded to me by the Royal Academy of Sciences of Sweden is a very great honour by which I am deeply moved. I feel all the more honoured as for the first time this year the Prize-winner in Economic Sciences delivers his Nobel lecture before the Royal Academy of Sciences. It has become a tradition that the Prize-winner should present the main contributions of his work which are directly related to the motivation of the Prize which, in my case, is my “pioneering contributions to the theory of markets and efficient utilization of resources”.I should like to interpret this motivation in its broadest sense, that is to say, as relating to all those conditions which may ensure that the economy satisfies with maximum efficiency the needs of men given the limited resources they have at their disposal. THE MOTIVATION OF MY CAREER AS AN ECONOMIST, MY 1943 BOOK, AND ITS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS The motivation of my career as an economist The contributions I have made to Economic Science make up a whole; and they can only be understood in the light of the motivations which prompted my career as an economist. Fascinated by History during my secondary education, then by Physics and Mechanics at the Ecole Polytechnique, I finally entered the national administration of mines in 1936. My true inclinations, however, lay elsewhere, and isolated as I was in a pro- vincial service, I devoted my leisure time to reading in the fields of physics and probability theory. -
Nine Lives of Neoliberalism
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) Book — Published Version Nine Lives of Neoliberalism Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) (2020) : Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, ISBN 978-1-78873-255-0, Verso, London, New York, NY, https://www.versobooks.com/books/3075-nine-lives-of-neoliberalism This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215796 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative -
The Interjurisdictional Migration of European Authors of Liberty, 1660 – 1961: a Quantitative Analysis1
1 January 12, 2016 THE INTERJURISDICTIONAL MIGRATION OF EUROPEAN AUTHORS OF LIBERTY, 1660 – 1961: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS1 Niklas Potrafke2 Roland Vaubel3 Abstract Hume, Montesquieu and Kant were the first to suggest that the rise of liberty in Europe and the West has been due to political fragmentation and competition among rulers because the creative elites had the option of leaving the country in response to political repression. In this paper we estimate the extent to which emigrating authors of liberty actually reacted to such political and economic factors. We distinguish four types of repressive political events: restoration of an authoritarian monarchy, suppression of liberal protests, takeover by a totalitarian regime and occupation by a foreign repressive power. We test for additional explanations of emigration. Our sample of well-known authors of liberty includes 401 persons from twenty European countries in 1660 to 1961. Our logistic regressions yield the following main results. The repressive events did have significant and large effects on emigration with lags of up to five years. Emigration was also influenced by the author’s occupation and interjurisdictional income differentials. The probability of emigration was larger if the author was of middle age and lived in a small country but these effects were numerically small. The decision to emigrate was not affected by the author’s education. JEL classifications: F22, N33, Z18 _______________ 1 Acknowledgements: The authors thank Daniel Mannfeld, Felix Weber, Georg Arndt and Justina Fischer for tabulating the data and Justina Fischer and Jonathan Seiler for retrieving some of the data. We received helpful comments from Dennis Snower, David Stadelmann, Bengt-Arne Wickström and the participants of the World Public Choice Society Meetings 2012, the Silvaplana Workshop on Political Economy 2013, the CESifo Political Economy Workshop 2013 and two anonymous referees. -
Foundations of a Free Society Foundations of a Free Society
Foundations of a Free Society Foundations of a Free Society EAMONN BUTLER The Institute of Economic Affairs First published in Great Britain in 2013 by CONTENTS The Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street Westminster London sw1p 3lb in association with Profile Books Ltd The author 8 The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve public understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society, with particular Foreword by Ali Salman 9 reference to the role of markets in solving economic and social problems. Acknowledgements 12 Summary 13 Copyright © The Institute of Economic Affairs 2013 The moral right of the author has been asserted. 1 Introduction 17 The purpose of this book 17 All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, How the book is set out 18 no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written 2 The moral and economic benefits of freedom 20 permission of both the copyright owner and the publisher of this book. A free society 20 The moral case for freedom 24 A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. The economic case for freedom 31 ISBN 978 0 255 36687 8 eISBN 978 0 255 36691 5 3 The institutions of a free society 44 Many IEA publications are translated into languages other than English or Society without the state 44 are reprinted. Permission to translate or to reprint should be sought from the Why government must be limited 47 Director General at the address above. -
Issue 3, September 2015
Econ Journal Watch Scholarly Comments on Academic Economics Volume 12, Issue 3, September 2015 COMMENTS Education Premiums in Cambodia: Dummy Variables Revisited and Recent Data John Humphreys 339–345 CHARACTER ISSUES Why Weren’t Left Economists More Opposed and More Vocal on the Export- Import Bank? Veronique de Rugy, Ryan Daza, and Daniel B. Klein 346–359 Ideology Über Alles? Economics Bloggers on Uber, Lyft, and Other Transportation Network Companies Jeremy Horpedahl 360–374 SYMPOSIUM CLASSICAL LIBERALISM IN ECON, BY COUNTRY (PART II) Venezuela: Without Liberals, There Is No Liberalism Hugo J. Faria and Leonor Filardo 375–399 Classical Liberalism and Modern Political Economy in Denmark Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard 400–431 Liberalism in India G. P. Manish, Shruti Rajagopalan, Daniel Sutter, and Lawrence H. White 432–459 Classical Liberalism in Guatemala Andrés Marroquín and Fritz Thomas 460–478 WATCHPAD Of Its Own Accord: Adam Smith on the Export-Import Bank Daniel B. Klein 479–487 Discuss this article at Journaltalk: http://journaltalk.net/articles/5891 ECON JOURNAL WATCH 12(3) September 2015: 339–345 Education Premiums in Cambodia: Dummy Variables Revisited and Recent Data John Humphreys1 LINK TO ABSTRACT In their 2010 Asian Economic Journal paper, Ashish Lall and Chris Sakellariou made a valuable contribution to the understanding of education in Cambodia. Their paper represents the most robust analysis of the Cambodian education premium yet published, reporting premiums for men and women from three different time periods (1997, 2004, 2007), including a series of control variables in their regressions, and using both OLS and IV methodology.2 Following a convention of education economics, Lall and Sakellariou (2010) use a variation of the standard Mincer model (see Heckman et al. -
Hayek His Contribution To
First published in Great Britain in 1983 by Maurice Temple Smith Ltd Jubilee House, Chapel Road Hounslow, Middlesex, TW3 ITX © 1983 Eamonn Butler This edition is copyright under the Berne Convention. All rights are reserved. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1956, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means whatsoever, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Butler, Eamonn Hayek. 1. Hayek, F.A. 2. Economics—History I. Title 330.1 HB103.H3 ISBN 0–85117–233–4 (hardback); 0–85117–234–2 (paperback) Printed in Great Britain by Billing and Sons Ltd, Worcester Contents Preface 3 3 Introduction: Hayek's life and work 4 Chapter 1: Understanding how society works 13 Chapter 2: The market process 31 Chapter 3: Hayek's critique of socialism 49 Chapter 4: The criticism of social justice 64 Chapter 5: The institutions of a liberal order 78 Chapter 6: The constitution of a liberal state 89 Epilogue: Sense and sorcery in the social sciences 97 Notes 111 Select bibliography 127 Index 129 2 Preface At a recent meeting of the Carl Menger Society (a group devoted to the understanding of the ‘Austrian School’ of economics), the words of F.A. Hayek were being discussed. As usual, the Alternative Bookshop had brought along a wide selection of the works of Hayek and other members of the school. But as the many people present who had no background in economics or political science looked over the books, some were intimidated by the technical content of several of them, and the remainder had to ask where the general reader should start.