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Fitch Affirms Jiuquan Iron and Steel at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable

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Fitch Affirms Jiuquan Iron and Steel at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable Fitch Affirms Jiuquan Iron and Steel at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable 01 NOV 2019 04:29 AM ET Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 01 November 2019: Fitch Ratings has affirmed China-based steelmaker Jiuquan Iron and Steel (Group) Co., Ltd.'s (JISCO ) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB-'. The Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed JISCO's USD300 million 7.0% senior notes due 2022 issued by its wholly owned subsidiary JISCO SR Pearl Ltd. at 'BBB-'. JISCO is owned by the Gansu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (Gansu SASAC). Fitch assesses the company's ratings based on the agency's Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria. As a result, Fitch uses a top-down rating approach and notches down JISCO's rating from its internal assessment of the creditworthiness of Gansu province. KEY RATING DRIVERS Strong Linkage with Gansu: Fitch assesses JISCO's status, ownership and control by the Gansu government, which indirectly owns 100% of JISCO, as 'Strong' due to the company's strategic importance to the province as its sole provincial steel platform and the largest producer in north-west China. JISCO accounts for almost 100% of the province's steel output. Fitch assesses JISCO's support record as 'Moderate'. The company has received intangible and financial support from the provincial government, including reduced income tax rates for its major subsidiaries developing projects in western China, easy access to bank financing and subsidies for the operation of its steel and Jamaica bauxite projects. However, those forms of support have not been consistent and are insufficient to maintain JISCO's standalone financial position at a reasonably healthy level. High Incentive to Support: Fitch assesses the socio-political implications for the Gansu government, should JISCO default, as 'Moderate', as it could result in a temporary steel shortage in the region, until other producers in nearby provinces make up the shortfall. However, given JISCO's dominant market position in Gansu and north-west China, its failure may disrupt supply to local infrastructure and property projects that rely on steel products. Moreover, Jiayuguan City was developed initially by JISCO under China's strategic plan to establish a steel production base in north-west China. A default by JISCO would result in loss of significant employment and affect the social stability of the city. We assess the financial implications on Gansu province, should JISCO default, as 'Strong' as it would have a significant impact on the availability and cost of funding for the province. JISCO is one of the largest state-owned enterprises (SOE) in Gansu by revenue and asset size and its main plant in Jiayuguan City is the largest steel production base in north-west China. A default by JISCO would severely affect funding for SOEs in Gansu. Steel Supports Profitability: JISCO generates the majority of its profits from its steelmaking business, while overall profitability is dragged down by its aluminum segment. JISCO's aluminum business is less competitive than that of peers due to its lack of raw material self-sufficiency in bauxite and alumina. We expect JISCO's aluminum profitability to pick up once its bauxite mine in Jamaica starts operation, but we do not expect this to happen in the near term. Weak Financial Profile: JISCO's Standalone Credit Profile is assessed at 'b-' due to its high leverage and weak coverage, a result of large amounts of legacy debt. We expect JISCO's FFO net leverage to remain around 10x in the next two to three years while coverage will remain adequate at around 2.0x. DERIVATION SUMMARY JISCO's rating is notched from Fitch's internal assessment of the creditworthiness of Gansu province. The gap is similar to that between other government-related entities whose operations have a commercial nature and their government parents, such as Kunming Iron & Steel Holding Co., Ltd. (KISC, BBB-/Stable). JISCO's linkages to Gansu province are weaker than those between other SOEs and their government parents, including Shougang Group Co., Ltd. (A-/Stable), which is heavily involved in public services in Beijing, and HBIS Group Co., Ltd. (BBB+/Stable), which is the largest SOE in Hebei and a top economic contributor in the province. KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Our Rating Case for the Issuer: - Steel gross profit/tonne to remain at around CNY500 between 2019 and 2020 - Capex of CNY2.5 billion per year between 2019 and 2022 - No dividend pay-outs in the near term RATING SENSITIVITIES Developments that May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action - Upgrade of Fitch's internal assessment of the creditworthiness of Gansu province - Stronger likelihood of support from Gansu province to JISCO Developments that May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action - Downgrade of Fitch's internal assessment of Gansu province's creditworthiness - Weaker likelihood of support from Gansu province to JISCO LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE As of end-2018 JISCO had cash and equivalents of CNY6 billion and short-term debt of CNY45 billion. Its debt maturity profile is concentrated in the short term, which accounts for around 75% of total debt. JISCO has total credit facilities of about CNY82 billion and unused (and uncommitted) facilities of around CNY16 billion. Although the unused portion is insufficient to cover its short term debt, the company has been able to consistently roll over its short-term debt with banks due to its status as a key local SOE. SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS Short-term wealth-management products accounted for in Fitch-defined readily available cash and cash equivalents. ESG CONSIDERATIONS Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of 3 - ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on our ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg. RATING ACTIONS ENTITY/DEBT RATING PRIOR HIDE RATING ACTIONS Jiuquan Iron and Steel (Group) LT IDR BBB- Co., Ltd. BBB- Affirmed senior unsecured LT BBB- BBB- Affirmed Jisco SR Pearl Ltd. senior unsecured LT BBB- RATING ACTIONS ENTITY/DEBT RATING PRIOR BBB- Affirmed VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com APPLICABLE CRITERIA Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria (pub. 25 Oct 2018) Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 19 Feb 2019) Corporates Notching and Recovery Ratings Criteria (pub. 14 Oct 2019) ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form Solicitation Status Endorsement Policy DISCLAIMER ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRA TINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. DIRECTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS RELEVANT INTERESTS ARE AVAILABLE AT HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/SITE/REGULATORY. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. .
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