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Third Quarter Colorado AO, 2007

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Third Quarter Colorado AO, 2007 Colorado Auto Outlook TM Comprehensive Information on the Colorado Automotive Market Released August, 2007 (Covering Second Quarter, 2007) Colorado New Vehicle Market Has a Chance to Increase This Year Economic growth came to a virtual standstill The obvious summary of these observations COLORADO in the First Quarter of this year, but many is that these times are uncertain and tumul- MARKET SUMMARY economists expect that a solid rebound is in tuous for the new vehicle retailing industry. the works. The Fed has left interest rates As a consequence, it is especially challeng- New retail light vehicle registra- unchanged for over 12 months, but the pros- ing to accurately plot the exact future course tions predicted to increase 0.4% pects of higher inflation could prompt a rate of the Colorado market. for all of this year versus 2006. hike before the end of the year. Consumers 2.1% increase expected in 2008. are racking up record debt and not saving We do believe, however, that there is enough, but retail spending has held up rela- enough evidence to predict the general di- Market improved 1.8% in the tively well. Auto manufacturers are serving rection in which the market will head over Second Quarter of this year ver- up an impressive array of new products that the next 12 to 18 months. Despite some sus year earlier. Small decline could ignite new vehicle sales, but the mar- uncertainties regarding the economic out- predicted for the Fourth Quarter. ket has been tracking above trend levels for look, Colorado consumer affordability for most of this decade which could signal a new vehicles should remain strong for the Compact SUV segment posts cyclical decline in sales. foreseeable future. This should prevent any biggest gains in Colorado market sharp and sustained decline. But, there are during first half of this year. Ford And it doesn’t stop there! Toyota has been simply too many things holding the market F-Series is the best-selling on a roll, racking up big market share gains, back to allow for any sharp increase in model so far this year. but some well publicized quality issues sales. As a result, the market is likely to lan- loom. New products from Hyundai and Kia guish during the rest of this year, posting Mitsubishi, Lincoln, GMC, and have gotten favorable reviews from the auto- somewhat sluggish results, while avoiding a Infiniti sales have been given a motive press, but the strong Korean won is significant decline. boost by new products (see evaporating some of their price competitive- pages four and five). ness. And Detroit’s Big Three have gained The box on the right provides details on the some traction with new products and could forecast for the rest of this year, and our Data Explanation win needed concessions from the UAW this preliminary projections for 2008. Look for summer, but daunting financial and competi- more details on 2008 in the next release of Data presented in Colorado Auto Out- tive challenges remain. Auto Outlook. look covers light vehicles only, which consists of cars, SUVs, minivans, and most pickup trucks. The Colorado New Retail Light Vehicle Market — At a Glance Summary 1. Top Ten Scoreboard Summary 2. 2007 Quarterly Forecast YTD '06 thru June YTD '07 thru June Change in 4.0% Rank Make Share Rank Make Share mkt. Share 2.8% 3.0% 1 Ford 13.5% 1 Toyota 15.6% 2.3% 1.8% 2 Toyota 13.3% 2 Ford 10.9% -2.6% 2.0% 3 Honda 9.7% 3 Honda 10.4% 0.7% 1.0% 4 Chevrolet 9.2% 4 Chevrolet 9.5% 0.3% 0.0% 5 Dodge 6.2% 5 Dodge 6.2% 0.0% -1.0% -0.5% 6 Nissan 5.5% 6 Nissan 5.3% -0.2% -2.0% 7 Subaru 5.0% 7 Subaru 5.1% 0.1% -3.0% -2.1% 8 Jeep 4.6% 8 Jeep 5.0% 0.4% % changeregistrations in vs. 2006 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 9 GMC 3.5% 9 GMC 3.9% 0.4% Summary 3. Annual Review and Forecast 10 VW 2.8% 10 Hyundai 2.3% 0.3% Forecast % ch. The three summaries provide an overview of the Colorado new 2005 2006 2007 '06 to '07 retail light vehicle market. The table above shows the Top Ten TOTAL 172,646 163,513 164,189 0.4% sellers in the state during the first six months of 2006 and 2007, and the change in market share Quarterly Forecast Car 72,597 74,758 73,557 -1.6% presents the change in registrations during each Quarter of Light Truck 100,049 88,755 90,632 2.1% this year versus 2006. (Actual figures are shown for the First Big Three 85,197 72,686 69,393 -4.5% and Second Quarters.) The Annual Review table on the right Japanese 64,987 69,747 73,437 5.3% shows our forecast for 2007, and actual figures for 2005 and European 15,806 14,820 14,389 -2.9% 2006. Source for historical data: AutoCount, an Experian Company Korean 6,656 6,260 6,970 11.3% Page 2 Colorado Auto Outlook County Scoreboard Eight County Markets Improve by More Than 5% So Far This Year The table below and graph on the right provide a thorough Percent Change in New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations summary of each of the top 20 for Top 20 County Markets in Colorado, YTD '07 (thru June) vs. Year Earlier county new retail light vehicle markets in Colorado. This unique county-level informa- BOULDER tion provides a valuable per- WELD spective on local market per- formance, and a barometer to LARIMER evaluate the performance of EL PA SO your dealership. DOUGLA S The table shows new retail LA PLATA light vehicle registrations dur- ADAMS ing the first six months of 2006 PUEBLO and 2007, and the percent BROOMFIELD change (also shown on the graph). The table also shows DENV ER each county’s share of the TELLER statewide market, and the ARAPAHOE change in share. Light truck market share is also listed. GARFIELD EA GLE Registrations increased in 13 JEFFERSON counties, with the largest per- centage increases in Boulder MESA County. ELBERT SUMMIT Note: The top five rated counties in each category are shaded. FREMONT Source: AutoCount, an Experian MONTROSE Company -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% COUNTY SCOREBOARD FOR TOP 20 COUNTY MARKETS IN COLORADO - YTD (thru June) NEW RETAIL REGISTRATIONS SHARE OF STATE MARKET LIGHT TRUCK MARKET SHARE COUNTY 2006 2007 % ch 2006 2007 CHANGE 2006 2007 CHANGE ADAMS 5555 5867 5.6% 6.9 7.1 0.2 50.6 58.5 7.9 ARAPAHOE 8535 8694 1.9% 10.6 10.6 0.0 50.2 58.2 8.0 BOULDER 4362 4693 7.6% 5.4 5.7 0.3 50.3 54.7 4.5 BROOMFIELD 2122 2236 5.0% 2.6 2.2 -0.4 48.4 57.0 8.6 DENVER 8489 8747 3.0% 10.5 10.6 0.1 47.5 54.8 7.3 DOUGLAS 7568 8063 6.5% 9.4 9.8 0.4 57.5 66.9 9.4 EAGLE 1223 1210 -1.1% 1.5 1.5 -0.1 67.0 71.4 4.4 EL PASO 9835 10490 6.7% 12.2 12.7 0.5 51.1 60.1 9.0 ELBERT 522 486 -7.0% 0.6 0.6 -0.1 63.2 74.8 11.6 FREMONT 529 482 -9.0% 0.7 0.6 -0.1 57.5 63.2 5.7 GARFIELD 1215 1235 1.6% 1.5 1.5 0.0 67.7 72.7 5.0 JEFFERSON 9647 9412 -2.4% 12.0 11.4 -0.6 53.3 62.8 9.5 LA PLATA 647 684 5.7% 0.8 0.8 0.0 69.8 69.9 0.1 LARIMER 4317 4615 6.9% 5.4 5.6 0.2 53.9 62.1 8.3 MESA 1963 1828 -6.9% 2.4 2.2 -0.2 63.6 67.3 3.7 MONTROSE 493 446 -9.5% 0.6 0.5 -0.1 68.6 74.9 6.3 PUEBLO 1591 1673 5.2% 2.0 2.0 0.1 50.7 58.8 8.1 SUMMIT 720 660 -8.3% 0.9 0.8 -0.1 63.8 72.6 8.8 TELLER 482 492 2.1% 0.6 0.6 0.0 68.8 69.8 1.0 WELD 4204 4497 7.0% 5.2 5.5 0.2 54.9 64.0 9.1 Released August, 2007 (Covering Second Quarter, 2007) Page 3 Segment Watch Compact SUV Segment Posts Largest Increase During First Half of 2007 Without question, the automotive Change in Segment Market Share-YTD ‘07 thru June vs. YTD ‘06 marketplace is becoming increasingly Compact SUV crowded. A steady stream of new products is regularly hitting the mar- Mini Van ket, with many brands entering seg- Mid Size Cros s over SUV ments for the first time. All of this Entry Car makes it increasingly difficult to iden- Mid Size Luxury SUV tify which segments are hot and Full Size Van whether new models are making headway against established com- Full Size Pickup petitors. The information on this page Compact Pickup provides the answers. Full Size Luxury SUV Sports Car The graph to the right shows the change in area market share for 18 Full Size SUV segments during the first half of this Luxury Car year versus the same period a year Sport Compact Car earlier.
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