Winnipeg Free Press http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/lottery-just-a-long-odds-diversion-for-draft- savvy-jets-gm-420663453.html

Lottery just a long-odds diversion for draft-savvy Jets GM

By: Jason Bell

Kevin Cheveldayoff and the bird dogs who make up his amateur scouting crew have already done the bulk of their work — on this continent and across the pond — to prepare for the 2017 NHL Draft.

The Jets , just back from the world under-18 hockey championship in Slovakia, is still getting some final looks at players whose names the NHL club could call out during the two-day draft in Chicago in late June.

The organization will have a game plan in place, one based on the rather safe assumption the Jets will have the 12th overall selection in the first round June 23. The odds — prior to Saturday’s NHL draft lottery (CBC, 7 p.m.) — indicate Winnipeg has a 76 per cent chance of drafting in that spot, based on its 20th-place finish in the 2016-17 season.

The Jets’ chance of snagging the top pick overall is just 2.7 per cent, while the odds of getting the second or third pick are just 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively. They’ll need a miracle to win the Nolan Patrick sweepstakes, the projected No. 1 pick who was raised right here in the capital and wowed NHL organizations with his body of work with the .

Cheveldayoff said Thursday the organization relies on the hard work of its scouts — rating literally hundreds of draft-eligible players on their size and strength, skating, skill and hockey sense, and character — and not on a machine randomly spitting out numbered ping-pong balls.

The organization has a solid track record of first-round selections — (2011), (2012), (2013) and (2014) — and that needs to continue because, as he points out, there are no mulligans for misfiring at the draft table.

"It’s not one of those things where you get to say, ‘OK, I got my baseball draft coming in a couple of months anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. I’ll be better at that one,’" said Cheveldayoff. "This is real, it’s not fantasy hockey.

"You wish you could corner the market on all the top players available, but you can’t. That’s what makes it exciting."

A year ago, Winnipeg had a 7.5 per cent chance of springing from the sixth draft position all the way up to the top spot, and a 7.8 per cent chance of rising to the second rung. Jets’ fans need only look at the 36 goals racked up by Patrik Laine, the Finnish rookie with the rifle of a , to know that draft lottery miracles can happen.

This year, however, the math looks really bleak for the Jets, who worsened their lottery odds with a late charge, posting seven straight wins to complete the campaign.

Participants in the draft lottery include the expansion , who begin their inaugural season in the fall, and the 14 clubs that did not qualify for the playoffs.

The league’s worst club, the Colorado Avalanche (22-56-4), has just slightly less than an 18 per cent chance of winning the first overall pick and can select no lower than fourth. The have a 12 per cent chance of obtaining the top pick. Vegas, meanwhile, has been given the same lottery odds (10 per cent) as the 28th-place team, the Arizona Coyotes.

If a team below the Jets hits the lottery jackpot, Winnipeg would slide down a spot.

Cheveldayoff said while the 2017 draft class doesn’t include instant superstars like Connor McDavid, or Laine, that’s not to say there are no potential impact players to be discovered.

"If you expect a guy to come in here next year or the year after and make an impact, I think you’re gonna be disappointed because this is not that type of draft," he said. "The reality is the thought process has to be letting those drafted players develop.

"You’re trying to resist that urge to say, ‘Wow, he’s playing at 18 and 19, he must be a great player.’ You have to resist that urge and try to do what’s right for the player for the long term, because, ultimately, that’s what’s right for your organization for the long term."

Even before the youngsters have their big day, there’s another huge date looming on the calendar: the expansion draft, June 21 in Las Vegas. The Golden Knights will select one player from each team to fill out a 30-player roster, although first- and second-year players are exempt.

Cheveldayoff said he has not finalized his protected list and is expecting plenty of conversations with other GMs once the order of selection for the amateur draft is finalized Saturday night.

"That is a jumping-off point for a team like Vegas who then knows what they’re picking," he said. "Once that is certain I do believe that you’re gonna start seeing, maybe behind the scenes, a lot more things that start to get real.

"Having said that, would we be open to moving (something), sure. We’d be open to moving a pick for the right situation. Now, if you win the lottery, obviously the asset value of that pick does change."

The Jets have an abundance of skill up front, and also have 2015 first-rounders Kyle Connor and waiting in the wings. But most feel what the club lacks is a true gem of a prospect on defence.

When it’s Cheveldayoff’s turn to make the club’s first-round selection, terrific young blue-liners such as Cale Makar of the Brooks Bandits of the Alberta Junior Hockey League, Callan Foote of the of the or Sweden’s Timothy Liljegren could be there for the taking.

But the Jets GM said it’s difficult to select a player based on current need, because those needs can change dramatically from season to season.

"The hard part is that you want to gain depth in all parts of your organization," he said. "When you’re drafting these 17- or 18-year-olds, you’re really looking at what they’re going to be like four years down the road, so you’re not exactly sure what your needs and wants and desires are going to be at that point.

"Sometimes if you stray away from just taking the best player possible, you could end up outsmarting yourself."

Winnipeg Sun http://www.winnipegsun.com/2017/04/26/chevy-hoping-for-draft-repeat

Chevy hoping for draft repeat Draft lottery kicks off what's sure to be a busy off-season for GM

BY PAUL FRIESEN, WINNIPEG SUN

So what does do for an encore?

The Winnipeg Jets GM will be heading back to Toronto for Saturday's draft lottery, hoping to repeat his luck from a year ago, when the Jets jumped from the sixth overall pick to the second, which they turned into Patrik Laine.

You can't help but wonder if he'll be wearing the same tie or the same jacket or pair of socks, no matter what condition they're in, 12 months later.

“My lucky charm is I have something very near and dear to my daughter,” Cheveldayoff told the Winnipeg Sun, Wednesday. “She was born on St. Paddy's Day, so I always felt she was my lucky charm. We'll see if that can work again.”

Under the new lottery system implemented last season, every non-playoff team has a shot at the first overall pick.

But the math is even worse for the Jets than it was last year.

By virtue of their 20th-place finish in the overall NHL standings, Winnipeg's chances are just 2.7%.

“So you're telling me there's a chance,” Cheveldayoff quipped. “Last year was the first year where anybody in the lottery could pick one, two or three. I guess in theory we could move back to 13, 14 or 15, as well. Because if 13, 14 or 15 win one, two or three, you slide back.”

This year's draft is a different animal, talent-wise. And not just at the top-end, where Laine and Auston Matthews were considered can't-miss prospects well ahead of the pack 12 months ago.

“Last year there was tremendous unanimity about the fact there were a couple of real top-end players at the top of the draft,” Cheveldayoff said. “This year there is not a unanimous upper- echelon. Last year the top couple were more separated. But there was a strong middle class. This year it's a much wider swath of middle class.”

While Winnipegger Nolan Patrik of the WHL's Brandon Wheat Kings remains the top-rated prospect, this draft doesn't have the star power of the last few.

Cheveldayoff stops short of calling it a weaker class, though.

“You're coming off a Connor McDavid draft and an Auston Matthews-Patrik Laine draft – those were marquee names, certainly players that in a short period of time... have made a good impact.

“That's not to say there won't be one that comes out of this draft. Because sometimes the diamonds are in the rough, and you've got to find them.”

Cheveldayoff is just back from the World Under-18 Championship in Slovakia.

Among the people he spoke with there: George McPhee and Kelly McCrimmon, GM and assistant GM, respectively, of the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights.

While the wheeling and dealing that'll set up the June expansion draft hasn't begun, Cheveldayoff predicts this weekend will change that.

“This is kind of the kicking-off point for them,” he said. “Once they find out ultimately where they're drafting in the first round, they're open for business. It would be for me, if I were them.”

The Jets boss says he hasn't finalized his protected list, yet, as things are bound to change around the league.

“I anticipate a lot of juggling amongst the league that can lead to scenarios for each of the teams that could change one way or another,” Cheveldayoff said. “Just knowing the conversations that happened at the trade deadline – there's lots of intriguing things you'd like to get in on. And you might.”

On his own expected contract extension, and that of head coach – both have just one year left on their deals – Cheveldayoff remained coy.

“I just literally got back two nights ago, so I haven't had a chance to sit down and talk with anyone,” he said. “I still have a couple more rounds of meetings with (owner) . In this game, until things are done you don't ever say something's done.”

TSN 1290 (AUDIO LINKS) http://www.tsn.ca/radio/winnipeg-1290/cheveldayoff-patrick-s-very-good-body-of-work-bigger- than-just-this-year-1.735635

Cheveldayoff: Patrick’s very good body of work bigger than just this year

Winnipeg Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff joins Hustler & Lawless to discuss the preparations he and his scouts are doing ahead of the NHL Draft Lottery and Entry Draft, and shares his impression of consensus top draft prospect Nolan Patrick.