EURASIA Gauging Armenian and Azerbaijani Military Exercises

OE Watch Commentary: The armed forces of and have conducted a number of exercises over the years which featured a scenario of a resumption of conflict against each other. The accompanying excerpted article reports on another iteration of exercises for both militaries, but statements from Armenian and Azerbaijani officials noted the difference from past exercises. The article from Kavkazskiy Uzel, a Russian-language website focusing on news from the , notes how both governments carried out “military exercises which simulate an abrupt escalation of military conflict in the region.” The scenario of Armenia’s exercise included a goal of Armenian forces retaking “the conditionally lost territory,” which most likely references the territory Azerbaijani forces took during the April 2016 conflict. The Armenian government that took power earlier this year also noted that the exercise is “based on the worst-case scenario of developments.” Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense reported that its exercise, which took place just days after Armenia’s, involved the “penetration of tanks into the enemy’s multi-layer defence and the destruction of Armenia’s military groups and advance units on the territory of Nagorny Karabakh.” The ministry also reported how “the skills of personnel will be tested in using military weapons and equipment, which has been in service with the Azerbaijani army over the past year.” Azerbaijan acquired several new types of weapons and equipment since April 2016, including new multiple launch rocket systems from earlier this year. There has been increased attention on the conflict since the change in the Armenian government earlier this year and while it did not Territorial changes after 2016 Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes. result in the resumption of war, it appears both sides are looking at and Source: By Interfase [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons, https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Territorial_changes_after_2016_Armenian-Azerbaijani_clashes.jpg. preparing for various scenarios. End OE Watch Commentary (Stein) “In the scenario of the ‘Shant-2018’ exercise, which took place 11-13 September, Armenia retook the conditionally lost territory.”

Source: Faik Medjid, “Учения в Армении и Азербайджане смоделировали возобновление войны (Exercises in Armenia and Azerbaijan modeled the resumption of war),” Kavkazskiy Uzel, 14 September 2018. http://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/325370/ Armenia and Nagorny Karabakh have carried out, and Azerbaijan has announced (intention to carry out), military exercises which simulate an abrupt escalation of military conflict in the region… In the scenario of the “Shant-2018” exercise, which took place 11-13 September, Armenia retook the conditionally lost territory, said Artak Davtyan, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces… According to Davtyan, all local self-governing bodies were prepared for a scenario to carry out mobilization in the case of martial law. At the same time, Armenian Prime Minister explained that the drills were based on the worst-case scenario of developments… On 13 September, with the framework of the Shant-2018 command and staff exercise, the Armenian National Assembly modeled a situation of taking the decision of declaring war… In turn, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense reported information on a large-scale operational-tactical exercise to take place on 17-22 September, which will include more than 20 thousand personnel… “The penetration of tanks into the enemy’s multi-layer defence and the destruction of Armenia’s military groups and advance units on the territory of Nagorny Karabakh are going to be worked out during the exercise, in addition to the tasks of liberating occupied territory through the destruction of military and strategic facilities,” stated the report from Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense…They also noted that the skills of personnel will be tested in using military weapons and equipment, which has been in service with the Azerbaijani army over the past year.

OE Watch | November 2018 15