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Lochloosa Lake Nutrient Tmdls for Target Setting

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Lochloosa Lake Nutrient Tmdls for Target Setting FINAL Nutrient TMDLs for Lochloosa Lake (WBID 2738A) and Cross Creek (WBID 2754) and Documentation in Support of the Development of Site- Specific Numeric Interpretations of the Narrative Nutrient Criterion Wayne Magley, Ph.D. Water Quality Evaluation and TMDL Program Division of Environmental Assessment and Restoration Florida Department of Environmental Protection May 2017 2600 Blair Stone Road Tallahassee, FL 32399-2400 FINAL TMDL Report: Ocklawaha Basin, Lochloosa Lake (WBID 2738A) and Cross Creek (WBID 2754), Nutrients, May 2017 Acknowledgments Map production assistance was provided by Benjamin Mittler of Watershed Data Services with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Division of Environmental Assessment and Restoration. Staff from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission provided historical vegetation survey information and a field tour. A special thanks to David Clapp, Dale Smith, and Tom Jobes from the St. Johns River Water Management District, who spent considerable time and effort to provide DEP staff with a calibrated hydrodynamic and water quality Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran model for the Lochloosa watershed and address technical details of the modeling effort. Editorial assistance was provided by Xueqing Gao, Douglas Gilbert, Daryll Joyner, Ken Weaver, Kaitlyn Summerfield, Erin Rasnake, and Linda Lord. For additional information on the watershed management approach and impaired waters in the Ocklawaha Basin, contact: Mary Paulic Florida Department of Environmental Protection Water Quality Restoration Program Watershed Planning and Coordination Section 2600 Blair Stone Road, Mail Station 3565 Tallahassee, FL 32399-2400 Email: Mary Paulic Phone: (850) 245–8580 Access to all data used in the development of this report can be obtained by contacting: Wayne Magley Florida Department of Environmental Protection Water Quality Evaluation and TMDL Program Watershed Evaluation and TMDL Section 2600 Blair Stone Road, Mail Station 3555 Tallahassee, FL 32399-2400 Email: Wayne Magley Phone: (850) 245–8463 Page 2 of 217 FINAL TMDL Report: Ocklawaha Basin, Lochloosa Lake (WBID 2738A) and Cross Creek (WBID 2754), Nutrients, May 2017 Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ..............................................................................................................15 1.1 Purpose of Report ............................................................................................................15 1.2 Identification of Waterbody ............................................................................................16 1.3 Background ......................................................................................................................17 Chapter 2: Description of Water Quality Problem ..................................................................22 2.1 Statutory Requirements and Rulemaking History .......................................................22 2.2 Information on Verified Impairment .............................................................................22 Chapter 3. Description of Applicable Water Quality Standards and Targets .......................29 3.1 Classification of the Waterbody and Criterion Applicable to the TMDL ..................29 3.2 Applicable Water Quality Standards and Numeric Water Quality Target ...............29 Chapter 4: Assessment of Sources ..............................................................................................35 4.1 Types of Sources ...............................................................................................................35 4.2 Potential Sources of Nutrient Loads within the Lochloosa Lake (WBID 2738A) and Cross Creek (WBID 2754) Watershed Boundaries .....................................................35 4.2.1 Point Sources ..........................................................................................................36 4.2.1.1 Wastewater Point Sources ..................................................................................... 36 4.2.1.2 Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) Permittees ................................ 36 4.2.2 Land Uses and Nonpoint Sources ..........................................................................36 4.2.2.1 2009 SJRWMD Land Use .................................................................................... 36 4.2.2.2 Population ............................................................................................................. 41 4.2.2.3 Septic Tanks .......................................................................................................... 41 4.2.3 Groundwater–Surface Water Interaction Study of Lochloosa Lake ....................44 4.2.4 Atmospheric Deposition .........................................................................................45 Chapter 5: Determination of Assimilative Capacity .................................................................49 5.1 Determination of Loading Capacity ...............................................................................49 5.1.1 Data Used in the Determination of the TMDL ......................................................49 5.2 Analysis of Water Quality ..............................................................................................63 5.3 Analysis of Sediment Nutrient Storage and Loading ..................................................69 5.4 TMDL Development Process—Establishing Nutrient Targets ...................................71 5.4.1 Paleolimnological Assessment ...............................................................................71 5.4.2 Water Quality Models .............................................................................................74 5.4.2.1 HSPF Model ......................................................................................................... 74 5.4.3.2. BATHTUB Eutrophication Model ...................................................................... 76 5.5 Evaluation of TN and TP Targets Based on Other Approaches .................................85 5.5.1 Central Valley Lake Region Assessment ...............................................................85 5.5.2 Lochloosa Lake TN and TP Target Concentrations Established Based on Morphologically Similar Lakes ........................................................................86 Page 3 of 217 FINAL TMDL Report: Ocklawaha Basin, Lochloosa Lake (WBID 2738A) and Cross Creek (WBID 2754), Nutrients, May 2017 5.5.3 Conclusions from Other Approaches Regarding Selected TN and TP Targets ...87 5.6 Calculation of the TMDL ................................................................................................89 5.7 Critical Conditions/Seasonality ......................................................................................93 Chapter 6: Determination of the TMDL ...................................................................................94 6.1 Expression and Allocation of the TMDL .......................................................................94 6.2 Load Allocation (LA) .......................................................................................................95 6.3 Wasteload Allocation (WLA) ..........................................................................................95 6.3.1 NPDES Wastewater Discharges ............................................................................95 6.3.2 NPDES Stormwater Discharges ............................................................................95 6.4 Margin of Safety (MOS) ..................................................................................................96 Chapter 7: Next Steps: Implementation Plan Development and Beyond ...............................97 7.1 Implementation Mechanisms ..........................................................................................97 7.2 Basin Management Action Plans ....................................................................................97 7.3 Implementation Considerations for Lochloosa Lake ...................................................98 References .....................................................................................................................................99 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................103 Appendix A: Water Quality Variable Definitions ............................................................103 Appendix B: Background Information on Federal and State Stormwater Programs ..105 Appendix C: Historical Observations in Lochloosa Lake, 1958–2013 ............................107 Appendix D. Lake Vegetation Analyses .............................................................................135 Appendix E: Historical Observations in Cross Creek, 1988–2012 ..................................141 Appendix F. Monthly and Annual Precipitation for Gainesville, FL, 1954–2013 .........146 Appendix G. Spearman Correlation Matrix of AGMs for Lochloosa Lake, 1988–2013 ........................................................................................................................................148 Appendix H. Central Valley Lake Region 80th Percentile TN and TP AGMs ..............152 Appendix I. HSPF Subwatershed Land Use Figures and Land Use Loads under Current and Natural Background Scenarios .............................................................154 Subwatershed 16: Elizabeth Creek ...............................................................................155
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