Review of African Political Economy No.60:147-156 * © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIX#6001

Commentary: States, Markets and 's Crisis

Ray Bush & Morris Szeftel

With this edition ROAPE moves to publishing four issues a year. It is hoped that this extra issue will be an annual 'review of books', focused on various aspects of African research. In part, this will permit us each year to provide readers with notes and listings of current activities and publications — we are particularly pleased to be able to restore Chris Allen's Current Africana to our pages after far too long an absence. In part, too, it will provide a forum for discussion of current trends and ideas concerning (and of concern to) Africa's political economy and development. As part of such a process, we welcome responses to what is written. While a review of current debates is no substitute for research and theoretical explanation, we hope that it will help to generate argument and further reflection. In the present conjuncture, with the continent in thrall to markets and moneylenders, with Western enjoying an unrivalled hegemony, and with the socialist project in disarray, the need to re-engage with fundamental ideas and re-examine basic principles is urgent. The collapse of and decline of welfare Keynesianism in Europe have called into question many received ideas — especially about relationships between state and economy and between class and party. One consequence has been to marginalise questions about equality, social justice, class struggle, and the role of state from the agenda of much intellectual debate and even to treat issues of growth and as independent of them. In contrast, we would insist that no such separation is possible or meaningful, that there can be no growth or democratization which does not reduce exploitation and injustice or increase equality and empowerment. and the single party no longer appeal as the mechanisms of liberation and we should not be too upset about that! But exploitation, famine, brutality and oppression still constitute the ways in which millions experience the global capitalist order and international imperialism. There is a need to join in a search for alternatives, one that will become all the more pressing as the euphoria generated by 'the end of ' gives way to the perception that isn't working either.

Decades Of Development Crisis Nothing illustrates the urgency of renewed debate about alternatives more than the continuing crises of development in Africa. In particular, debt has enabled Africa's creditors (or 'donors' as they are often called) to take control of its affairs and impose their own wishes and strategies. After two decades of this, little success has been forthcoming. A mighty army of NGOs and 'aid workers', consuming a large proportion of the 'aid' donated, rushes about the continent giving orders with varying degrees of insensitivity and, sometimes, stupidity. Meanwhile the structures of many states deteriorate and crumble, predators impose their will through corruption, 148 Review of African Political Economy authoritarianism and violence, and efforts at growth and democratization remain fragile. A cursory survey of the work published in ROAPE over the last six years quickly establishes how enduring this malaise has become despite all the official optimism expressed in the name of market dogma. Africa's history since 1945 has been marked by such waves of optimism about economic and political development which, in turn, have been repeatedly interrupted by periods of deep pessimism. The most optimistic current came shortly after postwar reconstruction in Europe, in response to the help given by many African colonies in the struggle against fascism and as a result of emerging nationalist movements. The achievement of independence encouraged hopes that control over (in Nkrumah's phrase) the 'political kingdom' would permit rapid — because sovereign — development. Nkrumah was wrong. The optimism of the late 1950s led to increased recognition that even with political independence, economic growth was slow or marginal even at a time when core capitalist economies boomed in the fastest and most sustained period of growth ever experienced by capitalism. This provoked a new pessimism, signalled by Nasser's argument, at the first meeting of the non- aligned movement in Belgrade in 1961, that it was the economic kingdom that needed to be won. Nkrumah, too, came to emphasise the problems of 'neo-colonialism' — reflected in his negotiations with Kaiser Reynolds over the VALCO hydroelectric dam and his attempt to promote an integrated aluminium industry.

The emphasis given to economic sovereignty, first by Nasser and then by Nkrumah, produced a new wave of optimism not only in Africa but throughout the ''. The often maligned Non-aligned Movement provided a political umbrella under which alternative strategies for development were discussed, by pan Arabists and Africanists, among others, who argued for an alternative to the development strategies urged upon them by the superpowers. Underdevelopment and dependency limited any scope for autonomous policy formation but the did, nevertheless, provide some room for manoeuvre and some space to use US - Soviet competition to wrest concessions for 'third world' countries. Nasser, for instance, proved to be a consummate politician in this regard, despite Egypt's dependence on the US for food imports. Yet again this renewed optimism foundered on the overwhelming reality confronting Africa: the need to promote the improvement of peoples' livelihoods had to be undertaken from an inadequate economic base. Five centuries of struggle over the continent's resources and the distorted pattern of development which had proceeded from it proved beyond the immediate capacities of post-colonial regimes to confront effectively. Unable to generate rapid change or legitimate democratic government, many states collapsed into varying degrees of authoritarianism, spoils politics, corruption and brutality. The 'political kingdom' became a resource to be looted rather than a weapon to lead the process of transformation. Probably the most over-riding consequence of Africa's past has been the persistence of trade regimes which locked the continent into static models of comparative advantage in which national economies throughout the continent have been subjected to international market fluctuations and, invariably, experienced a loss of value added in the sale of finished goods in the industrial core. The set back experienced by attempts at economic nationalism produced new efforts to reform such trade regimes in the 1970s. In 1974, the Non-aligned Movement called for a new international economic order. In the same year, pressure within UNCTAD led to calls for commodity agreements, buffer stocks to ensure stabilisation of crops and commodi- Commentary: States, Markets & Africa's Crisis 149

ties which fluctuated due to environmental changes and control of global markets. Unfortunately, such calls came when the bargaining position of the 'third world' was rapidly deteriorating through crisis and debt. In response, West Germany, Japan and the US stressed the importance of market solutions to global issues and resisted calls for reform. By the 1980s, once the debt crisis had locked African states into servitude or peonage, such debates were replaced by the rigours of debt servicing, stabilisation and conditionality.

The Dimensions Of Debt Servitude A generation after the formal end of colonialism most of sub-Saharan Africa had succumbed to economic and political crisis. Economic growth in many countries has ceased and debt is the single most important cause of Africa's present inability to develop. The debt crisis has (since the rescheduling crisis of 1982) developed beyond a transitory crisis into a system of international economic relations (Szeftel, 1987). The servicing —rather than the repayment — of debts has become the encompassing preoccupation of governments and their creditors. One World Bank official, considering the prospects of 17 particularly hard-hit countries, concluded that 'the financial crisis is so deep, the debt burden so heavy that they will not make it' (Barratt Brown & Tiffen, 1992:17). A few indicators might suffice to illustrate the dimensions of Africa's crisis today. Of the 51 states defined by the World Bank in 1992 as being low income countries (having a per capita GNP of $610 or less) 32 are in sub-Saharan Africa (including 16 of the 20 poorest) and most are classified as 'severely indebted' (World Development Report, 1992). Moreover, as the Bank indicated, not only has there been an enormous growth of indebtedness over the two decades to 1990, but there was little sign of improvement: the 1992 report estimated that Africa had 17.51% of the world's poor (people living below the poverty level) in 1985; it expected this to grow to 27.46% by 2000. The Bank expected Africa to have an absolute as well as a relative increase in poverty over this period. Finally, growth in the 1980s was about a third of the rate attained in the nine years up to the oil price crisis of 1973. By 1991 'third world' debt as a whole was about US$1.2 trillion (a trillion=l,000 billion) which resulted in a net transfer to developed countries of approximately US$50bn. Africa's projected debt for the end of 1993 was US$199 billion in comparison with a Latin American debt in the same year of US$390 billion. On the face of it, Africa's debt seems quite modest — only slightly larger than the national debts of Brazil ($127bn) or Mexico ($112bn). But, although African indebtedness is less than a quarter of the total for the developing world, it constitutes roughly 90% of the continent's GNP. Sub-Saharan Africa paid out $11.3 billion in debt servicing in 1993, four times as much as public spending on health and education. Furthermore, the build-up of debt service arrears in Africa rose from $11.7 billion in interest arrears in 1991 to $16.3 billion in 1993. What does debt mean in real terms? And how do the statistics contrast with the observation made by the World Bank in April 1994 (not for the first time) that there has been an increase in the living standards of the poor in the 'third world' and that adjustment is working in Africa? (World Bank, Adjustment in Africa: Reforms, Results and the Road Ahead). The figures (and any number of country studies — see for example Campbell & Loxley) do not bear this out. Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa have fallen 2 per cent annually in the last ten years, and are now lower than in 1970. Unemployment has quadrupled to more than 100 million. Real wages have 250 Review of African Political Economy

fallen by a third and investment is now less in real terms than even during the so- called lost decade of the 1980s. And ten years of export-led growth has produced not recovery but a decline in Africa's share of world trade from 4 per cent to 2 per cent — even though the strategy continues to be imposed on the continent by the IFIs. In the 1990s so far, African economies have grown even more slowly than during the 1980s —by only 1.5 per cent per annum. Inextricably tied to Africa's debt is the linkage which has emerged since 1990 between bilateral government and IFI lending and the conditions with which African states must comply to get further rounds of liquidity. In contrast with , where most borrowing, is essentially from private banks, most of Africa's debt is predominantly bilateral. As such it has strategic consequences, reducing the capacity to bargain with core states to a minimum (consider, in contrast to the relatively puny amounts owed, how seemingly unproblematic is the $1 trillion owed by the US and how few conditionalities anyone is imposing on Washington!). Moreover, as the weight of conditions grows, the availability of aid seems to shrink. Total US aid to Africa has fallen by more than a third since 1992; it will be $947.6 million in fiscal year 1994 and the intention is for all country to country funding to cease in fiscal year 1995 — except for strategic cases like Israel, Egypt and Russia. This, of course, does not mean that US assistance will cease entirely but that monies will only be forthcoming through USAID if policy preconditions are met across a broad range of issues labelled under such headings as democracy, free trade, anti-terrorism and environment. The Clinton Administration has already closed 21 offices of USAID around the world (9 in Africa).

The Ideology Of Debt Management If the disappointments of efforts to effect a transformation away from dependency and structural underdevelopment left African policy makers and analysts confused about what to do next, liberal theorists have had fewer doubts about where the problem lies. They argue that the crisis in the 'third world' is a consequence not only of misconceived state policies but of the very fact of state intervention itself. The state, it is argued, institutionalises wastefulness and 'crowds out' entrepreneurship and efficiency: the ability of state corporations to make taxpayers pick up the losses created by inefficiency makes it impossible for private enterprise to compete and impossible for the market to 'discipline' the incompetent; there is therefore a need to 'roll back the state'. This doctrine has been the ideological underpinning of the various, changing stabilisation and adjustment strategies imposed by the IMF and World Bank to tackle the crisis. The nature of IMF and World Bank stabilisation and Structural Adjustment Programmes have shifted over time in response to changing conditions and perceived inadequacies in implementation. The Bank, in particular, sought first to address economic growth in the , basic needs and human development in the 1970s, and debt reduction and adjustment in the 1980s. Within each broad strategy, there have been numerous attempts to adjust to the experience on the ground. Nevertheless, for all the changes, there has been substantial continuity — a continuity expressed by the belief that what is necessary is to create a 'market friendly environment' for development. In general, structural adjustment has required changes to monetary, exchange and budgetary policies requiring higher interest rates, currency devalua- tion, and a contraction of state budgets, the public sector and social overhead spending. These measures have been designed to remove the state as an obstacle to private investment by replacing price distortions with 'real prices', eradicating Commentary: States, Markets & Africa's Crisis 151 subsidies, protectionism and inflated real wage levels. The process is summarised thus by Ghai (1991:5-6):

Economic planning has been all but abandoned by most countries. There is increasing reliance on market forces for regulating the economy. Price controls and subsidies are yielding place to price determination by supply and demand. Industrialisation is no longer promoted by deliberate policy measures; instead, greater incentives are being given to production of primary commodities. Likewise, the quest for a more integrated national economy has given way to efforts at export promotion. There is increasing liberalization of foreign trade and payments. Greater national ownership and control of the economy are no longer priority objectives of development policy. The emphasis is instead on incentives to foreign investment and privatization of state properties and their sale to foreign interests. There have been cut-backs in social services and the tax burden has become more regressive in many countries. Industry, says Ghai, has declined relative to agriculture, mining and services, the formal sector relative to 'small-scale and micro-enterprises', the working and middle classes relative to owners of capital, and local capital relative to foreign capital. Above all, the international agencies' strategies perceive the primary problem to be that of the state. On the one hand, SAPs have been geared to ensuring that what the IFIs call the 'excessive amount of power in the hands of the government'(Barratt Brown & Tiffen 1992:7) is diminished substantially — through a 'rolling back' process and liberalisation, in which the World Bank has played a central role promoting privatisation (Young 1991). Yet, paradoxically, the state continues to have a central role in World Bank perceptions. A 1994 Policy Research Report contains any number of examples, noting, for instance, that

Only with strong government commitment and widespread public backing will policy reforms be sustained ... If government commitment is weak, opposition forces strong, or short-run costs high, the likelihood of stalls or reversals in policy reform is great. Zambia, for example, initiated (sic) an adjustment program in 1985, abandoned it two years later because of mounting opposition, and then returned to market-oriented economic policies in 1989. Ownership of an adjustment program starts with the government but does not end there ... (1994:217) (emphasis added). The Bank tends to regard problems that arise as a consequence of the unwillingness or inability of governments (governments they are trying to reduce in size) to effect the necessary reforms. Its arguments tend to perceive problems as inherent not in adjustment policies but in local conditions. Edward Jaycox, World Bank Vice President for the Africa Region, in a foreword to a 1994 collection of country case studies (published to accompany the Policy Research Report), considers that 'the path to economic progress and revival is now much better understood in Africa than at any time before, but managing this change has proved difficult' because of 'drastic changes in the political and economic environment' which have 'created uncertainty about the future direction of economic policies'. He worries that 'economic recovery was still fragile in most of these countries, and the ensuing uncertainty has made the situation even more difficult'. Nevertheless, he is confident that despite the impediments on the ground, 'the World Bank's long-term perspective agenda remains valid ...' (Husain & Faruqee 1994:viii). There is little agreement about how effective or successful the Structural Adjustment Loan (SAL) policies have been, even after nearly two decades (see the excellent 252 Review of African Political Economy discussion in Barratt Brown & Tiffen 1992:11-15). The World Bank insists that, despite some mistakes, its remedies have proved effective. A vast body of documentation from the Bank, UNDP, and the UN Secretary General's Expert Group tends to support this claim. Essentially the World Bank concedes that from 1981-1984 countries without adjustment programmes experienced better growth than those with such programmes but that the position was reversed thereafter. This has been disputed in a number of papers from UNECA, UNCTAD, FAO, UNESCO, UNICEF etc (essentially organisations concerned with the social impact, rather than the output figures, of such policies). Moreover, a study of countries paired for comparability has suggested that

Despite having a stronger growth record in the latter half of the 1970s, and despite receiving programme aid, the SAL (Structural Adjustment Loan) group of countries have performed significantly worse than their non-SAL counterparts, in terms of the GDP growth criteria during the 1980s (P Mosley, J Harrigan & J Poye, 1991). A host of individual country studies generally tend to support the critics of the adjustment strategy. Studies of a wide variety of cases (Campbell & Loxley; Ghai; Gibbon & Bangura) reveal a diversity of experience and adaptation. Various writers indicate that there has been some success at attracting foreign capital in some countries and in some sectors (generally primary production) but that, in general, such measures have all too often failed to meet their main objectives — such as greater food production and security or repayment of debt. Even in the case of , converted from revolution to monetarism, as Hutchful puts it, (in Campbell & Loxley 1989) the adjustment process enjoys a fragile success. Moreover, in Ghana as in Uganda, , Zimbabwe, Ivory Coast and many others, study after study indicates that the emphasis on export promotion and openness to international markets has negative (sometimes disastrous) consequences for food supplies, the viability of local manufacturing, investment in social overhead capital and infrastructure and the welfare of the poorest and weakest members of society. The evidence of such studies indicates that adjustment policies have frequently failed to realise their objectives and, moreover, have often contributed to exacerbating social, political and economic breakdown. In the 1990s, less bound by the dogmas of the Reagan-Thatcher years, the World Bank has made a number of efforts to move beyond narrow SAL policies in order to respond more sensitively to the problem of poverty. At its annual meeting in Washington in 1993, the World Bank's president, Lewis Preston, stressed that 'poverty reduction must be the benchmark against which our performance as a development institution is judged'. Yet it remains relatively closed to criticism from outside and below — a Financial Times article (2 March 1993) remarked on its undemocratic character. And in 1992 it spent only 14% of total funding on human resource development and only 5% of adjustment lending on poverty reduction, according to Preston. Only 7% of its funding went towards environmental programmes. For all its aspirations — and many of them are more socially concerned than those of some of Africa's warlords and dictators — the Bank remains locked into the structure of market reform and debt servicing policies. Not surprisingly, therefore, the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa was recently moved to remark that: 'the prevailing economic and political conditions in Africa do not allow for much optimism' (quoted in Africa Recovery, United Nations, vol. 7 no. 3/4, December 1993 - March 1994, p. 12). Even Edward Jaycox, in the Foreword mentioned above, despite insisting that those countries that have implemented World Bank reforms have 'experienced the biggest turnarounds in Commentary: States, Markets & Africa's Crisis 153 their economies' concedes that 'progress has been mixed' and, more, that 'despite these gains, per capita growth rates remain fairly low' and, yet more, that 'even if sustained, they would be insufficient to make a dent in the rising incidence of poverty' (Husain & Faruqee:viii).

States And Markets Criticisms of the IFI policies have been numerous and varied. Among the main ones are these: first, that devaluation does not promote exports from African primary producer countries since commodities are often pre-contracted or relatively price inelastic — so that the effect is often simply a reduction in earnings; second, that SALs do not encourage direct foreign investment (DFI) by transnational corporations (TNCs) which have little desire to locate in most African countries outside of primary export enclaves; third, that TNCs 'crowd out' indigenous enterprise quite as much as does the state and that policies frequently undermine local industry; fourth, that SALs often destroy social investment and hence the chances of the next generation of Africans to be more than debtors; and fifth, that the policies of the IFIs tend to ensure debt servicing rather than repayment, and integration in global markets rather than development of local markets. Such arguments focus on the efficacy of policies promoted by global agencies. As such they constitute what we might term the 'weak' critique: whatever criticisms might be voiced and accepted by the international agencies, they can always turn around and claim that these are faults of policy implementation and as such can be corrected through practice. Yet there is a more fundamental criticism that can be levelled against them, namely that the idea of market regulated development is itself the problem and that their policies are therefore fundamentally misconceived. It is one thing to argue that markets can be mechanisms to improve efficiency and democracy, serving to check bureaucratic and petty bourgeois accumulation, job patronage and the politics of graft, increasing industrial flexibility and removing ethnic and racial prejudice from some processes of resource allocation. It is quite another to argue that development and democracy require that society should be regulated by the market. Such assumptions are entirely ahistorical and theoretically inadequate. They ignore the reasons for the growth of the state and bureaucracy throughout modern history: the inevitability that capitalists and workers alike will act to protect themselves and their environment from the ravages of market logic has been well argued and theorised by writers such as Polanyi. They ignore also the reasons for the growth of the role of the state in Africa —: as a response to the need felt by people to 'recapture their own history' (as Cabral put it) and in order to defend indigenous development against the monopolies of multinational commercial and mining capital. They assume that Africa's problems arise from the inability of market forces to act when it is easier, on the evidence, to argue that they arise precisely from the way in which the market forces have acted on Africa. They assume that growth and rational allocation of resources in global markets produces growth and rational allocation in local markets when the evidence is overwhelming that global rationality may actually prevent local investment (see among many, Campbell 1991). They assume that market efficiency will allocate needs when the whole history of capitalism demonstrates that the market can only measure the ability to pay. Market fetishists, with their simplified and simplistic neo-classical models of human behaviour, all too often present us with the virtues of an abstract market as a solution to the problems of a real state and all too seldom with solutions for the ravages of real markets. 254 'Review of African Political Economy An example of this is found in the way in which cases such as South Korea are held up to Africa as paradigms of the success that market-driven, export-led growth can achieve if only African states would commit themselves to fostering it. Such triumphalism, not surprisingly, raises several difficulties. Firstly, we must ask if all developing countries can export electronics and machine goods. And if they can not, we must ask if the same benefits accrue for those who must export bananas or cocoa. If it is suggested that the same benefits do accrue, we must ask why they did not do so for a single primary producer throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America. Were every single last one of them beset by corrupt and inefficient states? Secondly, we must ask if South Korea can be regarded as representing, in any way, the full and free dynamism of market forces. The evidence suggests rather that it featured a high degree of state spending and — at crucial stages — enormous, coercive state pressures on Korean enterprise (which African country could hope to impose the death penalty on those who illegally expatriated currency?). The Park regime, in particular, regimented industry in draconian fashion. The same might also be said, though in different ways, of those many other market successes that preceded Korea and mat are inexplicably not mentioned in DPI literature these days — Brazil, Ivory Coast, . And thirdly, we must ask what possibility Africa will ever have of paying off its debts and achieving sustained growth when it is forced to accept the imposition of a static model of comparative advantage in order to attempt export-led growth. In doing so, the adjustment programmes have, in effect, reimposed the role of colonial primary production on debtor countries. This is precisely the critique made, for instance, by Stoneman, of conditionalities imposed on Zimbabwe:

... criticisms should not be taken to mean that all World Bank advice is worthless and should be disregarded altogether: efficiency is of vital importance despite its frequent misuse to promote a free-market ideology; Zimbabwe's economy does have a number of serious structural problems, and many institutional forms are indeed more related to the needs of UDI than Zimbabwe's present aspirations. But it is those aspirations, and the most efficient way of achieving them, that is Zimbabwe's main concern, and not the best way of accommodating itself to a niche that might be assigned to it in the world market (Stoneman 1989:61).

We might perhaps ask what would have happened if every state had simply always accepted its 'niche in the world market'. The point was made perfectly by a senior official of Japan's MITI two decades ago:

If the Japanese economy had adopted the simple doctrine of free trade and had chosen to specialise in this kind of industry, it would almost permanently have been unable to break away from the Asian pattern of stagnation and poverty ... The Ministry ... decided to establish in Japan industries which require intensive employment of capital and technology, industries that were from the standpoint of comparative cost most inappropriate for Japan (Quoted in Barratt Brown & Tiffen 1992:14). The evidence of recent historical development is not that development needs more market and less state but that, in the context of a global capitalist order, it is essential for strong states to be able to make strategic decisions which redirect internal economic activity and redefine the position of their economy within the global economy. Wade's important study, drawing on the East Asian experience, indicates how essential is a strong state. He argues that developmental states must be capable of Commentary: States, Markets & Africa's Crisis 155 making local capital internally competitive and of directing foreign capital to serve national export-earning targets, of promoting a bank-based financial system under close government control and oriented to nationally identified objectives, of ensuring that liberalisation is gradual and progressive, and of directing growth into strategically identified sectors (1990: especially chapters 10,11). There is no law that says that African states will be able to undertake such strategic direction (there are not that many Japans or Koreas in Asia either) but the evidence is that without it, there is unlikely to be success. The evidence is also overwhelming that the decision by IFIs to take over this role of strategic direction in Africa, by brushing aside the state, to become the state as it were, has been a disaster. Market forces imposed on Africa from above and without in the last two decades have failed to address any of the basic causes of poverty and instability and have generally tended to exacerbate them. Present trends seem to promise more rather than less pain. The GATT agreements are predicated on the assumption that Africa will be the only continent to be a net loser — to the tune of $2.6 billion by 2002 (this when the leading industrialised states are expected to reap $135 billion or 64 per cent of total annual gains in world income resulting from GATT). As a food importer Africa will suffer higher food costs as subsidies in Europe and the US fall. While the OECD and World Bank have suggested the need for compensatory transfers or financing and access to markets, none have been forthcoming — presumably because to do so would undermine market efficiency. GATT will also erode the value of the Lome agreements for its 69 ACP members by removing much of their protected access to the EU market.

Development And Democracy The implication of the above argument is clear: How a market is structured at any given time is not simply an expression of some abstract principles of rationality and efficiency. On the contrary, markets represent concrete configurations of power; markets are determinations of power relations, expressions of lines of force (domination and subordination) within the global order. The reasons that England bought wine and Portugal bought cork (perhaps to put in the bottles of wine?) in Ricardo's famous model of comparative advantage, the reasons that 'third world' countries sell food and minerals rather than far more profitable shipments of marijuana, heroin and cocaine, has more to do with history than with market rationality. That is why market reforms have so often seemed to Africans to be a form of 'recolonisation' of the continent. It is because the present form of subordination of Africa to the global market is effected through IFIs taking control of strategic direction of development policy, of IFIs effectively substituting for the state, that the question of democracy (national and international) has become so urgent. Faced by the reassertion of imperial hegemony, the task of rolling back imperialism, 'of recapturing history' is again imperative. The question is how this needs to be done. One way could be to simply promote the restoration of state activities and structures, on the grounds that to do so is anti- imperialist and therefore progressive. Yet this would be to take the side of classes and elites which have frequently been incompetent, corrupt, dictatorial, and brutal. In some ways, it has even been suggested, the World Bank is preferable to certain warlords and dictators. It might also be argued that such elites have traditionally sided with international forces against their own citizens. In any case, we do not consider this to be a tenable position. 156 Review of African Political Economy An alternative is democracy and democratization — the empowerment of the mass of African people in such a way as to give them influence over the actions of their leaders and to constrain the capacity of elites to connive with international forces. Democratization might be a means to shift control away from global and local ruling interests and to give a voice to some of the most marginal people on earth. Yet this is not an easy road. Democratization as presently understood in developing countries is an important but limited activity, confined to procedures for interest organisation and electoral competition. In practice in Africa so far, it has all too often meant a recirculation or reconfirmation of existing rulers. This may help to promote stability and guarantee debt servicing. It seldom involves the interests or aspirations of the African majority of rural dwellers. Indeed, writers like Mamdani have argued that the general discussion of 'civil society' is essentially a middle class and urban conception; it has yet to evolve dimensions that include peasant society. The process and debate both need to be deepened and extended, not simply as a response to donor conditionality but as an expression of mass needs and interests. It also needs to be revolutionary in orientation, challenging traditional representations of legitimacy and order inherited from both the indigenous and the imperialist past. This journal hopes that a fruitful debate about what such a process requires will be joined in the coming years.

Bibliography Barratt Brown, Michael and Tiffin, Pauline ODI Briefing Paper April 1993. (1992), Short Changed Africa and World Trade Piddington, K (1992), 'The role of the World Pluto. Bank' in Harrell, A and Kingsbury, B (eds), Campbell, Bonnie (1991), 'Negotiating the The International Politics of the Environment, Bauxite/ Aluminium Sector under Narrowing Oxford University Press. Constraints' ROAPE 51, 1991. Rowlands, Ian (1992), 'The International Politics Campbell, Bonnie and Loxley, John (eds) (1989), of the Environment and Development', Structural Adjustment in Africa, Macmillan. Millenium 21, 1992. Conable, Barber (1993), 'Policies for Sustained Stoneman, Colin (1989), 'The World Bank and Growth and Poverty Reduction' in Facing the the IMF in Zimbabwe' in Campbell & Loxley Challenge: Responses to the Report of the South (eds), Structural Adjustment in Africa, Commission (q.v.) Zed Books, London. Macmillan. Ghai, D (1991), 'Introduction' in Ghai, D (ed), Szeftel, M (1987), 'Crisis in the Third World' in The IMF and the South: The Social Impact of Bush, R, Johnston, G and Coates, D (eds), Crisis and Adjustment, Zed Books/UNRISD. The World Order, Socialist Perspectives Polity, Gibbon, Peter, Havnevik, Kjell J and Hermele, Cambridge. Kenneth (1993), A Blighted Harvest: the World Taylor, L (1993), 'The World Bank and the Bank and African Agriculture in the 1980s, James Environment: the World Development Currey. Report 1992', Millenium 21, 5, 1993. Husain, Ishrat and Faruqee, Rashid (eds) (1994), UNECA, African Alternative Framework to Adjustment in Africa: Lessons from Country Case Structural Adjustment Programs for Socio- Studies, World Bank Regional and Sectoral economic Recovery and Transformation. Studies, World Bank. Wade, Robert (1990), Governing the Market: Lancaster, Carol (1993), 'Governance and Economic Theory and the Role of Government Development: the Views from Washington' in East Asian Indistrialization, Princeton. in Moore, Mick (ed), Good Government?, IDS World Bank (1990), Adjustment in Africa: Bulletin, Vol. 24, No. 1, January 1993. Reforms, Results and the Road Ahead, World Moore, Mick (ed) (1993), Good Government? IDS Bank Policy Research Report, OUP for World Bulletin, Vol. 24, No. 1, January 1993. Bank. Mosley, P, Harrigan, J and Poye, J (1991), Aid Young, Ralph A (1991), 'Privatisation in Africa', and Power: The World Bank and Policy Based Review of African Political Economy 51, 1991. Lending, Macmillan. Review of African Political Economy No.60:157-172 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIX #6002

Conditions for Democratic Consolidation

David Beetham

This survey of the literature on conditions for democratic consolidation suggests the necessity of going beyond procedural definitions of democracy (based on fair, honest and periodic elections) to more normative ideas about decision-making being controlled by all members of the group as equals. In this view, democracy is a matter of the degree to which basic principles are realised and democratisation is always and everywhere an unfinished process. Four factors which facilitate democratic consolidation -- the experience of transition itself, a country's , its political culture and its constitutional arrangements -- are analysed through an assessment of ten key hypotheses implicit in the literature.

Larry Diamond, Juan J Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset (eds), Democracy in Developing Countries, vols. 2-4, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1988-9 (volume 1 not yet available).

Guiseppe Di Palma, To Craft , University of California Press, 1990. Diane Ethier (ed), Democratic Transition and Consolidation in Southern Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia, Macmillan Press, 1990.

Axel Hadenius, Democracy and Development, Cambridge University Press, 1992.

David Held (ed), Prospects for Democracy, part IV, 'The Dynamics of Democratization', Polity Press, 1993.. Samuel P Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.

Journal of Democracy, Mark Plattner and Larry Diamond (eds), vols. 1-5, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990-1994.

Guillermo O'Donnell, Philippe C Schmitter and Lawrence Whitehead (eds), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, vols. 1-4 (also available in one volume as Prospects for Democracy), Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.

Robert A Pastor (ed), Democracy in the Americas: Stopping the Pendulum, Holmes and Meier, 1989.

Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market, Cambridge University Press, 1991. 353 Review of African Political Economy Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens and John D Stephens, Capitalist Development and Democracy, Polity Press, 1992. The purpose of this review article is to provide a survey of some of the burgeoning literature on conditions for democratic consolidation, and to reduce it to some systematic order. I do so as a political theorist, and in no sense a specialist on Africa, but in the expectation that the comparative literature reviewed will be of some relevance to African countries, even where it is based on the experience of other continents. This expectation, it should be said at the outset, begs a fundamental methodological question: what is the appropriate level for comparative theorising in the social sciences? Should it be the most general and global level, or the regional and the local? Can any useful generalisations be made embracing political processes in sub-Saharan Africa, the Maghreb, Latin America, central Europe and so on? Can we be sure that the term 'democracy' has the same meaning in these regions? Even if we can, is there not a danger of giving the so-called 'transition to democracy' the same teleological status as the 'transition to ' which earlier proved so disappoint- ing?

My short answer to these questions is that the appropriate level of generalisation can never be decided a priori, but will depend upon the particular problem in view; and that the more general the hypothesis, the more it will need complementing and modifying by the specificities of region and locality. At most, therefore, theorising at this level provides a set of questions to be asked, and suggestions of where to look for answers, rather than a recipe for what will infallibly be found. In this sense theory, as the systematic abridgement of experience, is always the starting point for further analysis, not the end point of enquiry. Let me begin with some conceptual clarification of the terms 'democracy', 'consolidation' and 'conditions', each of which raises considerable issues. To take democracy first, it is conventional for specialists in comparative politics to follow Schumpeter (1943, chs. 21-22) in defining the concept in 'procedural' rather than 'normative' or 'ideal' terms, i.e., in terms of a set of institutional practices, rather than a set of basic principles. So Huntington, underlining his approval of the way US political scientists have made democracy 'less of a hurrah word and more of a common sense word', defines a political system as democratic 'to the extent that its most powerful collective decision-makers are selected through fair, honest and periodic elections in which candidates freely compete for votes, and in which virtually all the adult population is eligible to vote.' On the basis of this common sense approach, he concludes, informed political observers can apply the procedural conditions of democracy to existing world systems and 'rather easily come up with a list of those countries that are clearly democratic, those that are clearly not, and those that fall somewhere in between' (Huntington 1991:7-8; cp. Huntington 1989). Now although Huntington is somewhat more peremptory in his dismissal of any ideal or normative conception of democracy than the other authors reviewed, most of them agree with his concentration on the electoral process as the defining feature of democracy, together with the freedoms of speech and association necessary to make that process effective. Few readers would wish to deny that 'free and fair elections' constitute an essential part of democracy in the context of the contemporary state. Yet there are several problems with the procedural or institutional method of defining it. First, because it is unable to tell us what exactly makes these institutions 'democratic', it encourages a purely formalistic approach to democracy, in which procedural means such as 'freely competitive elections' or 'multi-partyism' become treated as Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 159 ends in themselves. Secondly, the concentration on the electoral process leaves out much else that is important to democracy, such as: the control by those elected over non-elected powers, inside and outside the state; their accountability and responsive- ness to the public between elections; the control ordinary people exercise over their conditions of life at the most local level; and so on. Everyone will have their own items to add to this list. Thirdly, the confidence with which it is asserted that some countries simply are democratic overlooks important deficiencies of Western countries from a democratic point of view; and obscures the way that democrats everywhere are engaged in a common struggle against authoritarian and exploitative forces, even though that struggle may be more intense in 'developing' than 'developed' democracies. In the light of these inadequacies, we cannot dismiss so readily the need to begin with a definition of democratic principles. In my view democracy belongs to the sphere of the political in the broadest sense, defined as the sphere of collectively binding decision-making, whatever the group or collectivity may be, from the family to the state (and thence also to the international arena). Its basic principles are that such decision-making should be controlled by all members of the group or collectivity considered as equals — the principles, in other words, of popular control and political equality. A system of collectively binding decision-making can be judged democratic to the extent that it embodies these principles, and specific institutions or practices to the extent that they help realise them (for further elaboration, see Beetham 1993). Such a definition enables us to see two things. One is that the central state is only one arena of collective decision-making where democratic principles may be applicable. Because of its complexity, popular control here has mainly to take the form of control over decision-mafers rather than directly over decision-making, and to do so through a variety of intermediaries acting on the people's behalf (parliament, the courts, financial auditors, journalists, etc.) as well as through electoral choice and the ongoing influence of freely-formed public opinion. Secondly, democracy is not an all- or-nothing affair, but a matter of the degree to which the basic principles are realised: a comparative rather than an absolute judgement. In conventional parlance those countries that reach a certain minimum threshold or clustering of practices which embody these principles qualify as 'democracies' tout court; but this shorthand way of speaking should not obscure the significant differences of kind and degree between such countries, or the extent to which democratic institutions and practices can coexist with undemocratic, and sometimes pre-democratic, ones. Democratisation is thus always and everywhere an unfinished process. In the light of such a conception of democracy, then, the literature under review can be seen to share a characteristic focus: on the electoral choice of central state officials; on the historical process whereby such choice under reasonably 'free and fair' conditions has become established, or re-established; and on the conditions for its effective maintenance in the future. This is an important subject indeed; but it is not the whole of democracy, and does not on its own guarantee ongoing popular control over the decision-making that affects people's lives. The democracy spoken of here, in other words, is primarily electoral democracy. This brings me to the second conceptual problem, that of 'consolidation'. Most writers on democratisation agree on two propositions. One is that the process of consolidating democracy, which begins where the 'transition to democracy' ends, i.e., with the inauguration of a new government at the first free and fair elections since the end of the pre-democratic regime, is a much more lengthy and difficult process than 160 Review of African Political Economy the transition itself. Establishing democratic electoral arrangements is one thing, sustaining them over time without reversal is quite another. Not all who make the transition will be able to sustain it. This is the point of Huntington's metaphor of the democratic wave: each new historical wave of democratisation leaves more established democracies on the beach when it retreats, even though many countries will fall back with the tide. From this follows a second proposition: the factors making for the consolidation of democracy are not necessarily the same as those contributing to its inauguration; the explanation for democratic sustainability may well be different from the explanation for the transition from authoritarian rule (see Rustow 1970). But what exactly is meant by 'consolidation', and how do we recognise a 'consolidated democracy' when we see one? A variety of different criteria are proposed in the literature (see also Linz 1990). One is the 'two-election' test, or more properly the 'transfer of power' test: democracy is consolidated when a government that has itself been elected in a free and fair contest is defeated at a subsequent election and accepts the result. The point of this criterion is that it is not winning office that matters, but losing it and accepting the verdict; because this demonstrates that powerful players, and their social backers, are prepared to put respect for the rules of the game above the continuation of their power. However, the problem with this criterion is that it is perfectly possible to have an electoral system that meets certain minimum democratic standards, but where such a transfer of power simply does not take place, because the electorate goes on voting for the same party (the so-called 'dominant party' model). Such has been Botswana since independence, and such were Japan and Italy for nearly 50 years. Are we to say that these were not consolidated, simply because no transfer of power took place? The recent changes of government in Italy and Japan at the hands of the electorate suggest that they were indeed consolidated years ago. For this reason some writers favour a simple longevity or generation test: 20 years, say, of regular competitive elections are sufficient to judge a democracy consolidated, even without a change of ruling party, since habituation to the electoral process would make any alternative method for appointing rulers unthinkable. This criterion in turn has its own difficulties. It is well known that, the longer the same party remains in power, the more indistinguishable it becomes from the state apparatus on one side and powerful economic interests on the other; and the more doubtful whether electoral competition takes place on a genuinely level playing field, or that electoral accountability retains much force. Here the question of democratic consolidation cannot be separated from the quality of democracy that is being consolidated (for example, Italy: how democratic ever was it?). A further problem with longevity is that it is not in itself a good predictor of how a system will behave in the future. We would have much more confidence in the robustness of a democratic system if it had survived substantial shocks or crises, including the shock of the transfer of power, than if its course had run smooth. Like the concept of stability, the concept of consolidation or sustainability is essentially a predictive or counterfactual concept, about a political system's ability to withstand shocks if subjected to them in the future. The analogy might be with a pane of glass, where we can distinguish between the strength of the material or the system, and the force of the pressures to which it may be subjected. A democracy can best be said to be consolidated when we have good reason to believe that it is capable of withstanding Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 161 pressures or shocks without abandoning the electoral process or the political freedoms on which it depends, including those of dissent and opposition. And this will require a depth of institutionalisation reaching beyond the electoral process itself (see Whitehead 1989). What then, finally, about the 'conditions' for democratic consolidation? Talk of 'conditions' can all too easily be read deterministically, especially when economic conditions are discussed. This was certainly the tendency of the famous early article by Lipset (1959) entitled some social requisites of democracy, with its proposition: the more telephones, the more democracy. In similar manner Huntington identifies a zone of economic development between $500-1000 per capita GNP, at which a country is ripe for democratisation and capable of democratic consolidation; by implication undemocratic countries above this figure are retrograde, and those below it should abandon hope. Di Palma's response to such determinism provides a useful antidote: successful democratisation is the product of human volition. When people have experienced the worst that arbitrary and oppressive governments can do, they will readily agree to rules that will at least limit the damage that governments can inflict upon them. This is democratisation bom, not of economic inevitability, but of the conscious desire for self-preservation, even if it is everyone's second best choice, or 'democracy by default' as it has come to be called.

However, a simple voluntarism is no more adequate than its deterministic counterpart. The project of democratic consolidation is clearly more difficult in some circumstances than others, and faces much more formidable obstacles in some countries than others. It is a task of social science to identify these circumstances and subject them to comparative analysis. Yet these 'conditions' can at most be described as 'facilitating' or 'hindering', rather than as 'determining', a given outcome. And among the conditions will be that of political agency, from broad social forces to individual leadership, whose response to given circumstances will itself be under- determined. To help assess these facilitating conditions, it will be useful to consider them under a number of different headings. For reasons of space, I have had to omit the external conditions deriving from the international and regional context, important though these are, and concentrate on the domestic ones. These include: the process of transition itself; the character of a country's economic system; its received political culture; its type of constitutional arrangements. Aspects of each of these will have a bearing on a country's prospects for democratic consolidation. Implicit in the literature under review (and sometimes explicit) are a variety of hypotheses, some more contestable than others, which I have formulated as concisely as possible to assist analysis.

The Process of Transition Here we are concerned with the question of whether, and to what extent, the process of transition to democracy affects the subsequent prospects for its consolidation. Two different aspects of the transition merit examination: the character of the previous regime, and the actual mode of transition itself. First hypothesis: Prospects for consolidation are affected by the character of the previous regime. Despite various attempts to make such a connection, there is no clear evidence from the history of past transitions that the form of the immediately 262 Review of African Political Economy preceding regime — whether single party or no-party, 'sultanist', bureaucratic or whatever — has any bearing on later consolidation. Nor is previous experience of democracy necessarily significant either. Although it is intuitively plausible that previous democratic experience should leave some sediment of popular support for democracy, and provide an opportunity to improve on past mistakes, on the other side a succession of failed attempts at democratisation (as in Russia) or a history of alternations between democratic and authoritarian rule (the Latin American 'pendulum') may simply generate a sense of defeatism about the prospects for long term consolidation. As in so much else, is an exceptional case for an independent state in the twentieth century, of having a lengthy experience of 'quasi- democratic' institutions with a limited suffrage, or elective oligarchy, prior to democratisation; in this it is closer to the typical nineteenth century West European experience of consolidating representative institutions before the expansion of the suffrage, than it is to other twentieth century states.

Although there is, then, no systematic connection to be drawn between the previous regime-type and future democratic prospects, two distinct classes of regime leave to their successor a quite specific agenda, whose handling will certainly affect these prospects. A military regime leaves behind the difficult task of depoliticising the armed forces, and reorganising them in ways that make their intervention in politics more difficult in the future. This task is easier where the regime ends in the discredit of military defeat (Greece, Argentina) than where it negotiates a guaranteed role or veto power for itself over its democratised successor (as in Chile). Even in the former, the issue of whether, and how far, to prosecute former state personnel for human rights abuses is one fraught with difficulty for the new regime (see Huntington 1991, ch. 5, Journal of Democracy, vol. 4.1, January 1993). A communist regime, on the other hand, leaves behind the enormous task of introducing a market economy simultaneously with the democratisation of the state. The question of the precise relation between a market economy and a democratic polity will be considered later. Here it can simply be observed that initiating the processes of democratisation and marketisation simultaneously is full of perils, not least because their timescales are so different, and the early experience of economic dislocation and hardship that accompanies marketisation can readily undermine support for the democratic process. If there is one thing that the literature under review is agreed upon, it is that performance criteria are much more important for fledgling democracies than for established ones. The latter enjoy the typical democratic advantage that failed governments can be removed without this bringing down the system; in the former, if the experience of democracy from the outset, rather than just of particular governments, is associated with failure, this will discredit the system itself. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that Russia's combination of economic dislocation with national humiliation at the collapse of empire, should make commentators particularly pessimistic about its democratic prospects, or conjure up parallels with the end of the Weimar Republic (see Journal of Democracy, vol. 5.2, April 1994: 'Is Russian democracy doomed?').

A different aspect of the previous regime should be mentioned here in conclusion, since it has an important bearing on the fate of democratisation, and that is the extent to which the inherited state structure is capable of asserting any systematic policy across the territory it supposedly controls. Strictly speaking, this is a question about the state as such, rather than the particular regime type. As a number of writers have argued (Bromley 1993, Hawthorn 1993, O'Donnell 1993), state formation is Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 163 necessarily prior to democratisation. A 'state' which is incapable of enforcing any effective legal or administrative order across its territory is one in which the ideas of democratic citizenship and popular accountability can have little meaning. Although in theory such an absence of regulative order is compatible with electoral competition for the chief offices of state, elections will be little more than a formality when they can make no difference to what happens 'on the ground'. In such situations, to be found in some African and Latin American countries, the continuity between the 'democratic' and pre-democratic regimes may be much greater than any differences to be found between them. Second hypothesis: the mode of transition to democracy affects its subsequent consolidation. At this point the literature is replete with typologies of transition process, which I have tried to synthesize in tabular form (see Figure 1). Even this table is considerably oversimplified, since there are intermediate forms. Huntington identifies a process which combines 'transformation' and 'replacement', which he calls 'transplacement', and Linz one which combines 'reforma' and 'ruptura', which he calls 'transaction'. We could play endlessly with these categories. None of them Figure 1 — Processes of Transition

External Transformation Replacement imposition (initiated within (initiated from society authoritarian regime) and opposition) Reforma (gradual negotiated change) Ruptura (rapid breakthrough)

Sources: Stepan (1986), Huntington (1991), Linz (1990), Ethier (1990)

seems particularly 'virtuous' in respect of prospects for later consolidation. More important for democratic sustainability, we might conclude, than the question of how the transition process is initiated, or its particular sequence of development, is a different set of questions: how broad and deep does it run, how inclusive or exclusive is it, who comes to 'own' the transition process as such? In terms of breadth, there is now considerable development of the theory of 'elite pacts', of the idea that prospects for future consolidation are enhanced, not only by formal agreement on the rules of the political game between different sections of the political elite (whether among oppositional elites, or between oppositional elites and sections of the old authoritarian elite); but also by informal agreement to limit the agenda of political competition, so that no group's perceived vital interests are threatened by exclusion from office (O'Donnell et al., 1986, vol. 4, pp. 37-47; Przeworski 1991, ch. 2). Such breadth of consensus is clearly advantageous to democratic consolidation. However, 'elite pacts' may be vulnerable from two directions. If they include irreducibly anti-democratic forces, e.g. from the military, then peaceful transition may be bought at a high price. If on the other hand they achieve consensus by 164 Review of African Political Economy excluding popular demands or popular forces ('democracy through undemocratic. means', as O'Donnell puts it), they will prove vulnerable to the assertion of such demands in the future. Although it has been argued that the elite consensus which secured peaceful electoral competition in eighteenth and nineteenth century Britain and the US required precisely the exclusion of the population from political influence (whether formally or informally), it is doubtful whether such exclusion can be made effective under contemporary conditions (see Hall 1993). In other words, we need to pay attention to the depth as well as the breadth of the transition process: to how far it penetrates society, and not merely the political elites. Here the idea developed in many African countries of the 'national convention', which includes the widest groups from civil society in the democratisation process, provides a useful counterpart to the idea of elite pacts, with its European and Latin American provenance.

A key indication, in my judgement, of who 'owns' the transition process is to be found in the manner in which a new constitution is constructed. Is it the product and possession of one set of political forces, or is it the result of a genuinely national debate and the possession of the country as a whole? Is it narrow or broad, or broad rather than deep? Examples from two ends of the spectrum are provided by Russia, where the new constitution was worked out in the President's office, and Uganda, where it has resulted from the most wide-ranging consultation and debate among all sections of the population. Most countries lie somewhere between these two poles. A comparative study of constitution-making processes, and their significance for democratic consolidation, would seem well worth undertaking.

Economic System and Democratic Consolidation Again a number of different hypotheses can be distinguished here, one about the role of a market economy, one about economic development, and one about class structure and political agency. Although they tend to overlap at the edges, they can best be treated as separate for purposes of analysis. Third hypothesis: a market economy is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition of democracy. This hypothesis is usually expressed as a relationship between capitalism and democracy (see for example Journal of Democracy, Vol. 3.3, July 1992: 'Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy'), but I prefer to leave open the question of whether dispersed forms of within a market economy, or , might be both economically viable and politically democratic. Even so, this formulation of the hypothesis, though substantiated by all the evidence, obscures the extent to which market forces can also work to undermine democracy. The relationship, in other words, is an ambiguous one, and both positive and negative aspects need asserting together. On the positive side is, first, that both market and democracy share the same anti- paternalist thrust: the individual, whether as voter or consumer, is assumed to be the best judge of his or her interests, and the success of parties as of firms depends upon the numbers they can each attract to their product in conditions of open competition. This internal 'congruence' also suggests a causal relationship: the idea of consumer sovereignty cannot exist indefinitely without awakening ideas of voter sovereignty among the population. Secondly, a market economy disperses decisional and other forms of power away Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 165 from the state. This serves the cause of democracy in a number of ways: it facilitates the development of an autonomous sphere of 'civil society' which is not beholden to the state for resources, information or organisational capacities; it restricts the power and scope of a bureaucratic apparatus; it reduces what is at stake in the electoral process by separating the competition for economic and political power into different spheres. This second advantage of the market tells not only against command economies of the Soviet type, but also against state controlled forms of capitalism. Although there is clear evidence that the state has a positive role to play in economic growth at all stages of capitalist development, we should distinguish between its role in regulating and complementing the market, and its coming to replace it as the chief allocator of economic opportunities, or as the main extractor and appropriate* of economic surplus. These latter forms typically produce clientelist and authoritarian regimes, which can only be superficially democratised, and even then remain vulnerable to endemic corruption. The disadvantages of the market for democracy are equally obvious to the undogmatic. The inequalities of wealth which come with market freedom tend to prevent effective political equality. The experience of being treated as a dispensable commodity in the labour market contradicts the publicly proclaimed idea of the democratic citizen as the bearer of rights in a context of social reciprocity. The widespread unemployment and rapid fluctuations of market economies render voters vulnerable to demagogic mobilisation in support of authoritarian and exdusivist forms of politics. Finally, the generalisation of the market motivation of private interest maximisation corrodes the distinctive ethos of public interest and professional service on which the integrity of the public sector depends; the market's penetration of the state here proves as damaging as the state's penetration of the market. Democracy, we might conclude, needs not only a welfare system to protect individuals from market vicissitudes (i.e., ); it also requires that the distinctive logics of market and state be recognised and preserved from mutual erosion. This ambiguous relationship between the market and democracy is reflected in quite contradictory evaluations of the impact of the neo-liberal strategy of market reforms and structural adjustment on democratisation (compare Whitehead 1993 with O'Donnell 1993). On the one hand the uncoupling of politics from the market to create a 'leaner' state, less personalised economic relations and a more independent civil society are all positive for democracy. On the other hand, the reduction in social welfare, the refusal to acknowledge any positive role for the state in the productive economy, and the undermining of a distinctive public service ethos, must be judged equally negative. The failure of neo-liberalism lies in its inability to recognise these important distinctions, or to see that, if the market is not a sufficient condition for democracy, this is because of limitations inherent in the market itself. Fourth hypothesis: the chances for democratic consolidation improve with economic development. With this hypothesis we enter the realm of quantitative political science: the construction of numerical indices of democratisation and economic development respectively, and the statistical analysis of the relationship between them across a large number of countries. The enterprise was popularised by Lipset (1959), and Hadenius's book (1992) is only the latest and most thorough in a long line of successors (see also Hadenius 1995). The conclusion of this literature seems to be that the chances for sustainable democracy are indeed improved by economic 266 Review of African Political Economy development, though there are exceptional examples both of underdeveloped democracies and developed economies with little democracy. However, a positive correlation between economic development (defined aggregatively in terms of GNP per head of population, fuel consumption per head, etc.) and democratisation raises as many questions as it answers. Leaving aside the contestability of defining 'development' in such terms, we still face the puzzle of what precisely it is about economic development that helps sustain democracy. Lipset's original article was rather more forthcoming than some of its successors in seeking to explain the connection in terms of a set of mediating variables. With economic development, he argued, comes a reduction in the extremes of inequality, a more complex articulation of civil society and a more widely educated population. It is intuitively plausible that these intermediate variables have a positive relationship to democracy, though less in terms of Lipset's Cold War preoccupation with 'moderate' mass politics than in the social basis they provide to political equality, in the. greater self-confidence they give to people that they can influence their own destinies, and in the lower tolerance on their part for authoritarian and paternalist regimes. However, it is by no means self-evident that, say, reduced inequality or a more educated population follows automatically from economic development. Are these variables not themselves regime-dependent, in that they depend upon government policies? Might it not be that lessening the extremes of inequality and creating an educated population facilitates both economic growth and democratisa- tion? Or that such policies might improve the chances for democratic sustainability even in the absence of high levels of economic development? On the issue of inequality and electoral democracy the evidence is inconclusive, since it depends upon what measures of economic inequality are chosen, and at what point in time. Even allowing for the fact that democracies tend over time to reduce inequality through their social policies, Muller (1988) found a clear causal relation between reduced levels of inequality and democratic sustainability. On the other hand Hadenius (1992) could find no such link, but demonstrated a strong positive correlation between education, literacy rates and democracy, independent of any other measures of economic development. What no one would deny is the self- evident proposition that fledgling democracies require sustained economic growth whatever the level of economic development they start from. And if Hadenius's conclusions are confirmed, then we can add to this proposition a further one: the best public investment governments can make for the future of their democracies lies in improving the literacy and education levels of their population. Fifth hypothesis: specific forms of class agency affect the chances of democracy. This hypothesis, deriving from the well known work of Barrington Moore (1966), rests on a very different methodology from that of quantitative political science: the compara- tive historical analysis of key case-studies. Its assumptions are also very different. Since economic development is not a uniform process, we need to pay attention to the specific character of a country's economic structure (including its insertion into the international economy), and to its distinctive pattern of class formation. What matters for democracy is the existence of social classes whose way of life gives them a consistent interest in, and capacity to support, democratisation, both in general and at particular historical conjunctures. The central issue for democratic consolidation, in other words, is that of social and political agency. Despite the emphasis on historical specificity, the work of Rueschemeyer, Stevens and Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 167 Stevens (1992) also reaches broad general conclusions which will no doubt be familiar to readers of this journal. Economic development, they point out, is precisely capitalist development. And capitalist development is conducive to democracy, they argue, not because of the presence of capitalists (who are typically ambivalent towards democracy), but to the extent that it reduces the economic and political weight of large landowners on one side (whose repressive systems of surplus extraction make them the most hostile to democracy), and develops a substantial organised urban working class on the other. It is the latter whose interests are most consistently inclined towards democracy, and whose capacity for collective action gives them the political muscle to promote it, and to defend it when it is under threat. Where forms of capitalist development leave a landed oligarchy in place, or produce only a comparatively small working class, the chances for sustainable democracy are slimmer, since they depend upon cross-class coalitions which may be highly unstable. The argument is persuasive, but it is subject to qualifications, as the authors themselves admit. A strongly organised working class whose demands constitute a substantial threat to either property or profits may frighten the owners of capital into the arms of authoritarian reaction. Democratic consolidation therefore requires more than the presence of organised labour, but the conditions for class compromise as well: economically, the room to meet the minimum demands of both capital and labour; politically, the incorporation of both classes into the representative system through political parties of both left and right. These are of course the classic conditions of social democracy in post 1945 Western Europe (see also Przeworski 1986, Sheahan 1986). Here lies a second qualification, about how far conclusions drawn from the history of the advanced capitalist countries are applicable to developing ones. As the authors point out, the relative size of the organised working class (as opposed to the urban dispossessed, who are more readily mobilised for than for democracy) is much smaller in the typical of the developing countries. This suggests that we need to pay closer attention to the other social forces making up a potential democratic coalition. If we extend the concept of democratic agency beyond that of organised economic interests, to include all those whose conditions of social activity incline them to defend the freedoms of association, expression, and so on — technical and professional strata, teachers, women's groups, NGOs, non-state churches, peasant associations — then we may find the basis for a firmer coalition stretching beyond the organised working class than Rueschemeyer's text might suggest.

Political Culture and Democracy The idea that democratic consolidation will be most likely in those countries where the political culture — popular beliefs, attitudes and expectations — is supportive of democracy, is at first sight a plausible one. However, the controversy which surrounded the first systematic attempt to demonstrate such a connection (Almond and Verba 1963) showed that there is fundamental disagreement among political scientists as to what a democracy-supportive political culture consists in, and considerable suspicion that, whatever it is, it is more likely to be the product of existing democratic institutions than it is their cause. There are broadly two different kinds of response to such difficulties. One is to abandon the cultural approach altogether, and argue that democracies emerge and become consolidated, not out of any principled commitment to democratic norms, but when the major political players recognise sufficient common interest in 168 Review of African Political Economy establishing electoral procedures, and subsequently see that their interest in keeping to the rules of the game outweighs the costs to them of their being undermined. Democratic consolidation thus becomes amenable to a 'rational choice' analysis of the respective interests of different players operating in conditions of uncertainty; and democratic legitimacy is reduced to a matter of habituation to a set of rules which all players have an interest in observing. 'Culture' thus disappears as a significant explanatory variable (Przeworski 1991, ch. 1). A different approach seeks to avoid the charge of causal circularity between democratic culture and institutions by identifying aspects of a society's culture that are in themselves non-political or pre-political, such as religious belief, but which may have a bearing upon democratic sustainability; and to avoid the issue of what precisely a democratic culture consists in by identifying those aspects of a culture that are most inconsistent with democratic institutions and practice. In other words, if we cannot say what a democratic culture is, we can at least say what it is not, or what is incompatible with it. This approach gives us two negative hypotheses. Sixth hypothesis: certain religions are incompatible with democratic sustainability. The religious hypothesis used to be put in a positive form, as a unique congruence between Protestantism and democracy. Given definitive formulation by Max Weber, this thesis held that Protestantism, by encouraging an ethic of individual responsibil- ity, a rich and internally democratic associational life and, in its non-conformist variants at least, a clear separation between church and state, prepared a particularly fertile ground for political democracy. This unique positive relationship was accepted as an article of faith among political scientists until even quite recently (see for example, Lipset 1990). However, the successful transition of Spain and Portugal to democracy in Europe, the experience of liberation theology and grass roots Catholicism in Latin America, and the increasingly positive attitude towards democracy among Catholic hierarchies in most continents over the past decade or more, have all led to a reevaluation of the old thesis. Now Western Christendom as a whole must be given a clean bill of health, so to speak, as regards democracy, and the problem sought elsewhere (Huntington 1991:72-84; cp. Huntington 1991a). In different ways Russian orthodoxy, Confucianism and Islam can all be seen as having features inconsistent with democracy: the first because its conception of the popular will is transcendental rather than empirical; the second because it subordinates the individual to the collective good; the third because it consists in a legislative project, which allows no separation between faith and politics. The problem with this 'negative' hypothesis in turn is that it treats religions as monolithic, when their core doctrines are typically subject to a variety of schools of interpretation; and as immutable, when they are notoriously revisionist in the face of changing circumstances and political currents. The speed with which the supposed incompatibility of Catholicism and democracy could be reversed over the course of a single decade should make us properly cautious of any sweeping anathemas pronounced on non-Western religions by Western political science. The one thing we can say with more certainty that is incompatible with democracy is any form of belief, whether sacred or secular, which claims that the final truth for society lies in some superior and esoteric knowledge that is beyond question by the uninitiated, and to which political authority must be subject. Such a belief will necessarily prove authoritarian and anti-democratic, however many people it can mobilise in its support; and the greater the number of those who do not share the belief in question, the more repressive it will be. It is thus not so much the doctrinal Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 169 content of any religion, as the manner in which it is practised and politically organised, and, as the next hypothesis asserts, its relationship to 'outsiders', that is relevant to the fate of democracy. Seventh hypothesis: societies divided by clearly defined and historically antagonistic cultural groups will have great difficulty in sustaining democracy. Of all the hypotheses this is the one least easy to dispute, whether the groups in question be defined by ethnicity, language, religion, historical memory, or whatever else gives people a sense of common identity that readily distinguishes them from others. As long ago as the 1860s J. S. Mill wrote that 'free institutions are next to impossible in a country made up of different nationalities', because 'each fears more injury to itself from the other nationalities than from the common arbiter, the state', (Mill 1861, ch. 16). It is an accepted proposition in most of the literature considered here that, of the necessary background conditions for democracy, besides the state's effective legislative control over its territory, a measure of national unity is the most essential. Once the principle of popular sovereignty has been acknowledged, that all political authority stems from the people, then the question of who constitutes 'the people' assumes a decisive political importance (see Nodia 1992).

The reasons why democracies are more dependent on national unity than able to construct it de novo are twofold, one to democracy's credit, the other much less so. First, democracy as a system of government depends upon popular consent in conditions of free expression and association. If people simply cannot consent to go on living together, then the only alternative to secession or civil war is the imposition of some form of authoritarian rule. Secondly, democracy as the electoral competition for power is itself enormously divisive, because politicians will exploit those bases of popular mobilisation that will most readily deliver the numbers to ensure them political office. If there are no effective bases of mobilisation that cut across 'ethnic' loyalties (using this term in the broadest sense), and no party which successfully transcends them, then an intensification of ethnic politics is the likely outcome. Here democracy can readily come to seem part of the problem rather than the solution, especially if it is constructed in a 'winner take all' fashion. The relevance of this particular hypothesis to sub-Saharan Africa is all too obvious, given its artificially constructed states and its history of colonial divide-and-rule policies. However, if we cannot reconstruct the past, we may at least develop institutional arrangements that will help minimise democracy's own shortcomings (Horowitz 1993). With hindsight the system of one-party rule looks like a flawed experiment, because whatever gains for national unity were achieved came at a considerable price. Whether more democratic alternatives can be developed to minimise division, and if so which, forms the subject of the institutional theories to be considered next.

Political Institutions for Sustainable Democracy Those who argue that the character of political institutions is important do not necessarily ignore the more 'fundamental' or long-run factors given by a country's social and economic structure, its cultural patterns or its history of state and regime formation. What they urge is that, if our aim is not so much to explain the past and the present as to influence the future, to look forwards rather than backwards, then we should concentrate on those features that are realistically alterable by human action within a reasonable time-span. Of these the most obvious are political institutions. 370 Review of African Political Economy This institutionalist tendency is noticeable in the early volumes of the Journal of Democracy, with its experts on comparative government such as Linz and Lijphart, who have long argued that there is not one single 'democracy', but many democracies. From this standpoint the crafting of democracy is as much a matter of ingenuity as of will, of knowing the general tendencies of different institutional forms, as well as creatively adapting them to local circumstances. Among these general tendencies we can distinguish three different propositions: about the superiority of parliamentarism over presidentialism; of proportional over plurality electoral systems; of regional over centralist forms of government. The first two in particular have been widely debated in numbers of the Journal (for presidentialism see vols. 1.1, 1.4,4.4; for electoral systems see vols. 2.1,2.3,4.1).

Eighth hypothesis: presidential systems are less durable than parliamentary ones. This hypothesis is currently a matter of serious debate in Latin America and the countries of the former USSR. In a presidential system (characterised by a strict division of powers and separate elections for chief executive and legislature) presidents face a number of dilemmas, so it is argued. Either they remain 'above polities', in which case they have difficulty in mobilising the organised party support to deliver their agenda; or they are effective politicians, but at the expense of compromising the head of state's unifying role typical of a constitutional president or monarch. More serious than either of these, however, is the inbuilt conflict or 'gridlock' between president and legislature, which there is no democratic method of resolving since both are popularly elected and enjoy democratic legitimacy. Presidents tend to be intolerant of legislative opposition, and the temptation to use their executive power extra-legally to side-step, browbeat or coerce an obstructive legislature often proves irresistible. Prime ministers, in contrast, are typically much more effective at delivering an electoral programme, since their position as chief executive depends upon a parliamentary majority in the first place. Moreover, parliamentary systems have proved much more flexible in response to crisis or government failure, as they can engineer a change of administration or chief executive without having to wait until a new election is held. Finally, prime-ministerial coups against parliament are virtually unknown. Although these arguments may be overstated, the impressive fact that the US is the only example of a durable presidential system in existence gives them considerable force. The sheer prestige of the US may have given its constitutional system an image of exportability that is simply misleading. Ninth hypothesis: proportional electoral systems are less politically divisive than plurality ones. This hypothesis stems from Lijphart's well known distinction between two different types of democracy, which he calls 'majoritarian' and 'consensual' respectively (Lijphart 1984). The problem with the plurality or 'first-past-the-post' system in divided societies is that, by magnifying the gains to the largest party, it enables it to win a parliamentary majority even on a minority of the popular vote. It also encourages an exclusivist or 'winner-take-all' approach to politics, in which the divisiveness of the electoral contest carries through into government office; the prize of the contest is seen as untramelled power, in which losing parties have no legitimate place. Proportional systems, in contrast, almost invariably require coalition govern- ment, and encourage cross-party compromise and consensus-building as a normal way of life. The objection typically raised against coalition government by politicians of the English-speaking world, mat it leads to weak or ineffective government, is simply belied by the experience of continental Europe. Conditions for Democratic Consolidation 171 The above applies to parliamentary systems only. In a presidential system, a consensual element can be achieved by multi-preference voting, so that no president can be elected by a mere plurality; or, as in , by requiring presidential candidates to achieve a determinate spread of votes across a given proportion of states or regions of the country. Neither, however, will have quite the ongoing consensus-building effects of proportional representation in a parliamentary system. The value of different electoral systems will very much depend on local circum- stances. The 'Westminster model' used to work well in most of the UK, with two main parties of roughly equal size; with three parties of different sizes it produces hugely disproportionate outcomes between parties and regions, and can no longer deliver effective electoral accountability. It used to work well in mainland Britain, with its homogeneous population, but was a disaster in Northern Ireland, with its sectarian divisions. Apart from such specificities of context, our attitude to electoral systems will also depend on how we judge the place of majority rule in democratic theory and practice. Is majoritarianism the acme of democratic perfection, which gives one part of society the automatic right to impose its will on the rest; or is it simply a necessary procedural device for resolving disagreement when other measures (negotiation, amendment, compromise, etc.) have been exhausted? And can majority rule be democratic, let alone sustainable, if it leads to the widespread denial of the basic rights on which democratic citizenship is founded?

Tenth hypothesis: democratic sustainability is improved by a system of devolved regional government. Like the previous hypothesis, this is particularly applicable to ethnically and regionally divided countries. Regionalism offers a version of power sharing, which operates at the territorial rather than the parliamentary or executive levels. It enables a party which is defeated electorally at the centre to compensate for its exclusion from office by the prospect of exercising power at the regional level. South Africa provides a highly pertinent current example, although Ethiopia has taken devolved government the furthest. There is a simple principle at issue here. If the losers in the electoral contest believe that the cost of their exclusion from office is too high, they will have a strong incentive not to abide by the outcome. Too little at stake: people will not bother to vote, and democracy will be discredited. Too much at stake: the losers will take their bat home, and democracy may be destroyed. Regionalism offers a path between this Scylla and Charybdis by dividing the different functions of government between different levels. Although such division contains the possibility of conflict between centre and region, this will be mitigated by a clear separation of functions, preferably subject to adjudication by a constitutional court. At least this offers a more civilised alternative to secession or civil war.

Conclusion A reader of this article might be forgiven for concluding that we suffer from a surfeit of hypotheses, even without adding to them further propositions about the international environment of domestic politics. This only demonstrates that the consolidation of democracy is a product of many factors or conditions operating together. No one condition on its own will be either necessary or sufficient, but an accumulation of facilitating conditions can be expected to enhance the prospects for the survival of electoral democracy. It is not, however, a matter of simply 'adding them up' in some crudely aggregative fashion. The order followed here — historical 172 Review of African Political Economy origins, economic and social structure, political agency, constitutional arrangements — does have a certain logic to it, as well as providing a way of integrating the different elements into a coherent story. What is the point of the exercise? Explaining the way the world is requires no special justification for the social scientist. Those bold enough may even use such conditions as are discussed here to predict which countries are most likely to survive this latest democratic 'wave'. Those directly involved in the struggle for democratisation, however, will rightly seek to resist any pessimistic conclusions that might follow for their own countries from such a prediction. Here the hypotheses might serve a different purpose. Apart from the purely historical ones, most of them can be read as having some implications for action or policy, given appropriate adjustments for local circumstances. In the ongoing struggle for democratisation, in other words, social science can have a modest accessory role, in helping political practice to be more intelligent, through a systematic awareness of comparative experience elsewhere.

David Beetham is in the Department of Politics, University of Leeds.

Additional Bibliography

Almond, Gabriel and Verba, Sydney (1963), The Moore, Barrington (1966), The Social Origins of Civic Culture, Princeton University Press. Dictatorship and Democracy, Beacon Press. Beetham, David (1993), Auditing Democracy in Muller, Edward (1988), 'Democracy, economic Britain: Key Principles and Indices, Charter '88 development and income inequality', Trust, London. American Sociological Review, No. 53, pp. 50- Bromley, Simon (1993), 'The prospects for 68. democracy in the Middle East' in Held (ed), Nodia, Ghia (1992), 'Nationalism and pp. 380-406. democracy', Journal of Democracy, Vol. 3.4, Hadenius, Axel (1995 ), The duration of pp. 3-22. democracy: institutional vs. socioeconomic O'Donnell, Guillermo (1993), 'On the state, factors', in Beetham, David (ed), Defining and democratisation and some conceptual Measuring Democracy, Sage Publications. problems', World Development, No. 21, pp. Hall, John (1993), 'Consolidations of democracy' 1355-1369. in Held (ed), pp. 271-290. Przeworski, Adam (1986), 'Some problems in Hawthorn, Geoffrey (1993), 'Sub-Saharan the study of the transition to democracy' in Africa', in Held (ed), pp. 330-354. O'Donnell et al., part 3, pp. 47-63. Horowitz, Donald (1993), 'Democracy in divided Rustow, Dankwart (1970), 'Transitions to societies', Journal of Democracy, 4.4, pp. 13-38. democracy', Comparative Politics, April 1970, Huntington, Samuel (1991a), 'Democracy's third pp. 337-363. wave', Journal of Democracy, 2.2, pp. 12-34; Schumpeter, Joseph (1943), Capitalism, Socialism (1989), 'The modest meaning of democracy' and Democracy, Allen and Unwin. in Pastor (ed), pp.11-25. Sheahan, John (1986), 'Economic policies and Lijphart, Arend (1984), Democracies, Yale the prospects for successful transition from University Press. authoritarian rule in Latin America' in Linz, Juan (1990), 'Transitions to democracy', O'Donnell et al., part 3, pp. 154-164. The Washington Quarterly, summer 1990, Stepan, Alfred (1986), 'Paths towards re- pp.143-164. democratization', in O'Donnell et al (eds), Lipset, Seymour Martin (1959), 'Some social Part 3, pp.64-84. requisites of democracy', American Political Whitehead, Lawrence (1989), The consolidation Science Review, 53, pp. 69-105. of fragile democracies' in Pastor (ed), pp. Lipset, Seymour Martin (1990), 'The centrality 76-95; Whitehead, Lawrence, 1993, 'the of political culture', Journal of Democracy, Vol. alternatives to "liberal democracy": a Latin 1.4, pp.80-83. American perspective' in Held (ed), pp. 312- Mill, John Stuart (1861), On Representative 329. Government, J M Dent. Review of African Political Economy No.60:173-184 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIX #6003

HIV/AIDS in Eastern and

Anne V Akeroyd

This article reviews some recent key books on HIV/AIDS in Africa. It does so by examining the debates relating to the extent and possible future development of HIV/AIDS referring to the discussions about demographic, economic and social impacts in especially eastern and southern Africa. It explores the so-called doomsday scenarios and addresses themes linked to the important and increasing attention being paid to the gendered aspects of HIV/AIDS. Sholto Cross and A Whiteside (eds), Facing up to AIDS: The Socio-Ecottomic Impact in Southern Africa, London: Macmillan; New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993. pp. xi + 331. G Mwale and P Burnard, Women and AIDS in Rural Africa: Rural Women's Views of AIDS in Zambia, Aldershot: Avebury, 1992. pp.viii + 127. PANOS Institute, The Hidden Cost of AIDS: The Challenge of HIV to Development, (PANOS Dossier), London, 1992, pp. viii +168; AIDS: The Second Decade, Panos AIDS Media Briefing, No.l, n.d., 1993, pp. 22; A fair trial? Testing AIDS vaccines in the developing world, Panos AIDS Briefing, No. 2, November 1993, pp. 17; Panos WorldAIDS Datafile, Supplement to WorldAIDS, No.27, May 1993, pp.7. World Bank, Tanzania: AIDS Assessment and Planning Study (A World Bank Country Study), Washington, DC, 1992, pp.xxxviii + 161. By mid-1989 some 3-4 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, about one in fifty adults, was thought to have been HIV-infected, women comprising about 80 per cent and men about 40 per cent of the global totals of women and men respectively. By 1992 the cumulative numbers of HIV-infected women and children was expected to be respectively 4,000,000 and 1,000,000 (and 3,000,000 non-infected children would have been born to HIV-infected mothers), and 600,000 women and 600,000 children would have AIDS; increases in adult mortality could be doubled or tripled in some east and central African cities in the early 1990s; and adult AIDS cases and deaths could equal or exceed the expected number of deaths from all other causes (Chin 1990). Now the World Health Organization estimates that cumulative HIV infections in Africa total nearly 10 million, an increase of 1.5 million in a year, and that by 2000 some 7.5 million women could have been infected.1 Disastrous as the impact of HTV and AIDS has been, much of the developing world, and notably South Africa, has yet to reach the second stage of the epidemic when significant numbers fall ill. Whatever the numbers infected turn out to be, and even if transmission stopped tomorrow, HTV/AIDS will 274 Review of African Political Economy long be an issue and current strategies therefore must also involve planning for an uncertain future. The lessons now being learnt in Africa are being applied elsewhere, in planning for the Asian epidemic (e.g., Moodie & Aboagye-Kwarteng 1993). This review discusses only a fraction of what is available and concentrates on published sources rather than on the less easily accessible 'grey literature', and on only a few topics: it is not a thematic survey of trends. Increasingly, social science research is concerned with its own agenda rather than the concerns of epidemiology and biomedical research; however, the gaps are still many, and coverage is still sparse and very uneven as between countries and topics.

The World Bank's Tanzania: AIDS Assessment and Planning Study 'assesses the current status, likely future development, and perspective demographic, economic, and other impacts of the AIDS epidemic, and examines the options available for doing something about it', taking the reader into the world of hypotheses, modelling and second-guessing the future. It is heavily reliant on World Bank sources — only eleven of the 64 references are local studies or by local authors (though others were presumably included in the commissioned reviews?) — and some of the social science references are surprisingly old. When the report was prepared about 1.4 to 5.3 per cent of the population was HTV- infected and this is expected to rise to 5.8-17.4 per cent by 2010. Estimates by the National AIDS Control Program (NACP) gave the number of AIDS cases as about 160,000, those who were HIV-positive as about 800,000, and annual deaths from AIDS as 20,000-30,000,5-7 per cent of all deaths.2 Morbidity and mortality vary sharply by region, and HIV-infection rates ranged from 1% of the population in some rural areas to an estimated 17 per cent of Kagera's urban population. Short-term projections (3-5 years) suggest HTV prevalence rates among urban and rural adults of 11 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, and cumulative AIDS cases about 2 million with 1.7 million deaths. Long-term projections in two scenarios based on different assumptions about 'monogamy' rates suggest that by 2010 the HTV prevalence rate in adults could be 10 per cent or 30 per cent, and AIDS cases 2.3 million or 6.5 million of whom 1.7 million or 5.6 million will have died. Many more will be indirectly affected — kin who will have to bear much of the costs of treatment; survivors who may be impoverished; employers who must bear productivity losses; and the sufferers from other diseases which have resurged because of AIDS. Inter alia, by 2010 the workforce is expected to be slightly younger, critical skills and talents will be in short supply and the dependency ratio will worsen; in the medium and long term, GDP could be 14-24 per cent lower than otherwise expected; sectors, industries, regions and sub-groups will be affected differently; there will be increased competition between categories of patients for access to health services and budgets; but population policies and family planning programmes will still be vital. It recommends enhancing the status of the NACP; undertaking an aggressive national sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention and control programme; strengthen- ing AIDS prevention activities, intra-sectoral coordination in the health field and donor co-ordination; and decentralising AIDS planning and involving local populations. It concludes that AIDS will have a major presence for many years 'and the Government must plan now how to deal with that reality'. The report induces a sense of despair at the impossibility of African countries coping with the impact of HIV/ AIDS on top of all their other economic, political and social HIV/AIDS in Eastern and Southern Africa 175 problems. How does one plan rationally for such divergent scenarios based on the unknowable, the incalculable or the difficult to calculate and the inherent assump- tions of the models. Yet without forecasts how can a government begin to think about acting? The report exemplifies Keyfitz's view that forecasting, whilst impossible, is yet unavoidable if one is to act purposefully (Keyfitz 1987:236-7). Facing up to AIDS also stresses statistics, modelling and forecasting. This is a multi- disciplinary endeavour aiming to contribute to the process of policy information. Pace the sub-title, its real concern is with South Africa which Cross and Whiteside regard as a special case since it 'has both a research base and an expected national problem of major proportions', and they suggest that 'southern Africa offers a possible terrain for the investigation of AIDS which goes beyond the pathological dimension' (p.vii). The papers are very detailed yet remain readable — no mean achievement; first given in 1991 events will have overtaken some parts but they are important building blocks. Their focus on industry and commerce should provide useful examples for other industrialising countries. However, it says little about gender-related issues and does not directly address these. Papers by Alan Whiteside (introduction) and David FitzSimons (aspects of the global pandemic) provide information about medical, scientific, and social aspects. Fleming's paper (biomedical knowledge from 'tropical' Africa) is aimed at irresponsi- ble South African clinicians who have ignored that source; and Jonathan Broomberg reviews international and local research on the economic impact. Some ill-founded and exaggerated ('doomsday') scenarios of economic collapse and labour shortage are dismissed in Hilary Southall's account of trends and projections of HTV infections; and she concludes that the South African situation is not hopeless though potentially very serious if options to reduce the spread of HTV are not pursued. Peter Doyle describes an actuarial model developed for a life insurance company using HTV prevalence data which is calibrated against over 300 data points from sub-Saharan Africa. He predicts that the prevalence rate is likely to peak below 30 per cent of the adult population or, with significant behaviour change, at below 20 per cent. The rate of growth might be slower by 2005 but there will not be a population decline. Gwenda Brophy's paper (modelling effects on the black population) which describes their use of the World Bank's PRAY AIDS model, provides more conservative estimates but is in line with the others. She draws particular attention to the need to study sexual networking (cf, Obbo 1993b) and, like other papers, to the impact of labour migration. In the section on economic assessments for South Africa Sholto Cross analyses the long-run socio-economic effects: though the economy will probably not suffer detrimentally the human cost will be substantial, and South African economic and demographic specificities mean the epidemic's course will have no parallels. Jonathan Broomberg and colleagues conclude that the overall economic effect of AIDS should be sustainable for the next 15 years; and George Trotter deploys a human capital approach in AIDS impact analysis and identifies some of the dilemmas that companies will face.

The 'African experience' is represented by three papers. Whiteside discusses the impact on Zimbabwean industry based on data from the insurance industry and extensive fieldwork. He provides a summary of impacts and actions taken by government and industry and points out that the emphasis has been on AIDS awareness and education programmes and not on the potential effects on company operations. Richard Hore also looks at Zimbabwe, using data from the medical aid societies created jointly by employers and employees which almost completely 276 Review of African Political Economy finance the private health sector. Neither morally nor practically can the societies avoid the costs of AIDS patients, particularly as patients die not from 'AIDS' but from opportunistic diseases; and somehow, innovative ways will have to be found to reduce the full impact of the costs. Tony Barnett and Piers Blaikie, who work on the sensitivity of subsistence agricultural systems to AIDS-related labour loss, discuss early AIDS impact research in rural areas in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda by themselves and others.3 They outline some simple monitoring methods (popula- tion pyramids, orphan studies, agricultural impact studies, household's coping and crisis management strategies, and household structure changes) and suggest other research areas suited to these methods — labour markets, environmental impact, evaluating and supporting local coping experiments and urban workplace studies. Sholto Cross provides suggestions for action-oriented research. The first is for a 'national database of the HIV incidence in South Africa utilising a modified geographical information system (GIS)'; the second for studies of sexual behaviour in sub-cultures; and the third for 'each institution of higher learning... to take a regional area, a group of organised communities, and a thematic aspect of AIDS-related behaviour as their focus for study' and regularly to share insights with their supporting communities. He comments that 'It is a tragic historical irony that South Africa, on the brink of a new political dispensation, should also be facing the onslaught of the most devastating plague of modern times' and 'it is inconceivable that the course of the epidemic will not add fuel to an already fiery debate'.

This volume (and other developments)4 shows how far South Africa has come (politically and analytically) since Schoub et al. (1988) wrote that the heterosexual epidemic in South Africa would be sustained T?y a promiscuous core consisting largely of female prostitutes' and that its reproductive rate would depend largely on a 'promiscuity index of the intermediate population' and co-factors facilitating the transmission of the virus. It is now the linkage with socio-economic conditions and poverty which is the focus of concern (see Evian 1993,1994; Zwi 1993). The spread of HIV infections continues to increase: estimated doubling time is twelve months, and there are now about 500 new infections per day, 300,000 HTV-infected persons (McGarry 1994) or 450,000-500,000 if the 3-5 per cent HIV prevalence rate is extrapolated (Evian 1994). Fleming (1992) elsewhere has argued that too little has been done — 'seven years wasted'. It is to be hoped that the new dispensation may remedy the default: it has enabled the timely development of concerted action across racial, political and sectoral divides. The newly formed National AIDS Convention of South Africa provides a platform for representatives from medicine, business and commerce, mining, unions, education, religious bodies, civic associations, mass media, political parties, health administrations and service associations to develop a multi-sectoral national strategy to prevent HIV transmission and to provide assistance and care for people with AIDS.5 The Panos Institute, a non-profit organisation, has a global remit but inevitably draws on African research and examples. Like its earlier publications6 these are timely, up- to-date (citations in The Hidden Cost of AIDS include items published in 1992, abstracts from the Vllth International Conference on AIDS (Amsterdam), and interviews with specialists up to December 1992), wide-ranging, well researched and meticulously sourced, and presented in a very accessible style. The WorldAIDS Datafile gives for each country numbers of reported AIDS cases, HTV seroprevalence (considered more representative of the state of the epidemic) and restrictions applied to foreign nationals. Five maps show estimated cumulative HIV infections at the end of 1992, HIV/AIDS in Eastern and Southern Africa 177 estimated HIV prevalence among the sexually active populations in Western Europe, Southern and Eastern Asia and Southern Africa, and more than 50 countries which impose HTV/AIDS-related restrictions on foreign nationals and visitors. The media briefings are intended to foster informed debate and include questions which journalists might pose. AIDS: the Second Decade summarises succinctly the development issues, pointing out that 'HIV/AIDS is both a symptom and increasingly a cause of underdevelopment'. At least 80 per cent of HIV/AIDS cases are in the developing countries, and the poorest are at greatest risk, but only 5 per cent of the US$7,000 million annual costs of AIDS prevention, care and research is spent outside the industrialised countries. WHO has identified Uganda, Rwanda, Thailand and Brazil as suitable sites for vaccine trials, and other organisations like the US Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) have collaborative projects in Zimbabwe, Uganda and Malawi, Rwanda and Kenya. Panos' A Fair Trial addresses the question of vaccine trials, and especially of locating these in poor, developing countries which are unlikely to benefit from the results. It makes accessible complex material usually only available in medical journals.7 It points out that the location of trials highlights and exemplifies the structural inequalities faced by developing countries, and says 'Developing countries often have to bear too many of the burdens while too many of the benefits are unknown, uncertain, or must be negotiated'.

The Hidden Cost of AIDS distils data from many studies and recent interviews with specialists, providing detailed information and analysis about the HIV pandemic in general; demographic impact; health costs; social costs: HIV/AIDS and the community; the challenge to labour; rural households and food security; national perspectives; containing the epidemic; and the development issue. Particularly helpful are the discussions of the different models used for forecasting the HIV/AIDS case numbers and population changes, and of economic costs and implications. HIV/ AIDS will affect nearly every sector of a nation's economy and the set of impacts will be more complex than previously thought. By setting out what is known or can be hypothesized, even if there is heavy reliance on studies from east and for rural impacts (e.g., by Blaikie and Barnett), it should stimulate discussion and research elsewhere. Much information about socio-economic and health conditions is included; the case studies and comparisons within the developing world as well as with the developed world bring home the disparities not only between Africa and elsewhere but also intra-African inequalities and thus highlight the potential differential impacts of HIV/ AIDS. In 1984 Botswana had one nurse to 700 people and one doctor to 6,900; in Rwanda the ratios were 1:3,650 and 1:34,680 respectively. In 1986-87 health expenditure per capita was US$32 in Botswana, US$1 in Uganda, and US$207 in Brazil. Zimbabwe had 864 first degree graduates, 10 per 100,000 people in 1986, and Kenya 2,338,11 per 100,000; whereas Nepal had 26,847,149 per 100,000 people in 1988, and Brazil had 134,717,94 per 100,000. In the developing world only US$0.46 per head goes on activities approved by national AIDS Control Programmes and perhaps double that if all HIV/AIDS activities are included. Panos' HIV resources index which compares the wealth of 14 countries with the estimated proportion of the population which is HIV-positive shows that taking the US as the baseline of 100 only three countries have a better potential ability to respond to the pandemic (Sweden at 417, Switzerland at 148 and France at 115). Heading the below-baseline list is Mexico (59); ending it are the African countries — Kenya (2), Zimbabwe (0.4), Zaire (0.3), Rwanda (0.2) and Uganda (0.1). The index takes no account of actual spending priorities. 178 Review of African Political Economy Women and Primary Health Care Like other studies of health issues under structural adjustment, the conclusions of The Hidden Costs demonstrate that HIV/AIDS is only secondarily a health problem. The spread is fuelled by poverty, patterns of infection reflect inequality between men and women, and improving the socio-economic status of women is essential if they are to protect themselves and their children. Mortality rates will rise but population growth overall is unlikely to decline and overall dependency ratios may not change. Traditional coping mechanisms in the wider community may fail, and children will be badly affected. There may be labour shortages, the workforce may become younger and less experienced, countries and sectors dependent on a small number of relatively skilled and managerial personnel may be badly affected, and production, exports and foreign exchange may decline. STD treatment should be made a priority, health structures should be strengthened and HIV/AIDS activities integrated into them, and care and treatment must be seen as part of prevention. Governments must undertake extensive education and awareness programmes and take account of possible impacts in education and ; and development agencies must consider HIV/ AIDS in their activities and as necessary develop new initiatives and support community coping mechanisms.

Women now account for 40 per cent of the HIV-infected adults against 25 per cent three years previously; and over 1 million children in the developing world have now lost one or both parents, so I had high hopes of Mwale and Burnard's Women and Aids in Rural Africa, and not least because the site of the study was in southern Zambia. There are too few studies from rural areas (as Trykker et al. 1992 point out): this will help to fill that gap and it will bring discussions in the nursing literature to a wider readership — though too few citations refer to Africa or are by African nurses and researchers. However, I was frustrated by the brevity of the account, the failure to link issues with AIDS-related research (let alone sociological/anthropological research) in Zambia and elsewhere; and though the audience seems to be health care workers there is little background information on Zambian AIDS-programmes. There are typographical errors, e.g., 'atypical village activities taking place', 'AIDS fears cantered round fear of casual-contact'; authors' names are spelt differently or their order reversed in the text and the references. Bizarrely, some index entries (e.g., 'New York') refer to the bibliography — perhaps the index was prepared with a word search facility (?). I lost count of the number of missing entries, incorrect dates and other mistakes in the citations, even though the references and bibliography come to 31 pages. Data were collected by Mwale, a nurse tutor, through informal semi-structured interviews using two local interpreters; the methods and some shortcomings thereof are briefly discussed. The only information about the thirty-six researchees is that all were associated with or had heard of the primary health care programme run by the nearby Salvation Army hospital. The field study runs to 70 pages, but includes repetition of points and other material such as the correction of misconceptions about the accepted means of transmission — it is not clear whether this is intended to highlight the respondents' 'faulty' knowledge or to ensure that readers are provided with the correct 'scientific' information (similar misconceptions are reported from Choma District by Trykker et al. (1992)). The discussion covers knowledge and prevention issues; people at risk; how women protect themselves and problems over prevention and control; cultural and traditional issues; feelings about the role of health workers; other issues; and implications of the women's views for health care HIV/AIDS in Eastern and Southern Africa 179 and health education. Surprising absences were concerns about caring/coping and death-related issues both in their own right and because of the stress on home care in the community care programme instituted by the mission. Many comments accord with data from elsewhere, for example on problems associated with condoms (cf., Ulin 1992; Obbo 1993a; Schoepf 1993; Gordon & Kanstrup 1992; also Turshen 1992; Seidel 1993b). There are tantalising snippets; women in the village nearest the mission had the poorest level of knowledge about HTV/AIDS, and suggestions for matters that need research — such as the use of medicines that encourage dry sex (cf., Brown et al. (1993) on this in Zaire8)—but were apparently not developed in the interviews. AIDS was likened to Kayanga, a disease for misconduct believed to be spread from a women who has aborted a foetus and not been cleansed, the symptoms of which are loss of weight, coughing and signs of having TB. Traders have long been implicated in HTV transmission (see Obbo 1993b), and Weiss (1993) discusses the perceived linkage between businessmen, young women, sexual transactions, economic seductions and AIDS deaths among the Haya in Kagera Region, Tanzania. Mwale and Burnard describe two Zambian scapegoats: first, the urban males from neighbouring countries, mainly Zaire, who trade in salaula,9 second-hand clothing, in the rural areas who are accused of seducing girls and second, women traders, especially those who sell fish and go to the rivers for supplies who are believed to engage in promiscuous activities with fisherman to get the fish early. In-depth studies of such ideas and practices would be valuable — perhaps using focus group discussions or other in-depth methods.

The knowledge and behaviours of nurses and health care workers, touched on in Women and AIDS in Rural Africa is a neglected topic. Studies in Zambia, Tanzania, Uganda and Malawi found that over 90 per cent of home and community care for HIV/AIDS is supervised by nursing and midwifery personnel; and the nursing profession in Africa has been in the forefront of bringing such concerns into the public arena.10 Recent accounts discussing nurses and nursing inputs into community care for HTV/AIDS include Anderson (1994) on Uganda and Zambia, Kohi and Horrocks (1994) on Tanzania, Munodawafa et al. (1993) on Zimbabwe, Nkowane (1993) on Zambia, and Norr et al. (1992) on Botswana.11 The brunt of caring for the sick is borne by women; Foster found that 75 per cent of the 150 'helpers' looking after inpatients (not all AIDS patients) she interviewed at Monze Hospital in 1992 were women, aged 42 on average, most of whom were farmers, which could have implications for maize production. Mwale was unnecessarily defensive about using a 'qualitative' research method. Discussions of HIV/AIDS research methods in Africa, especially qualitative ones, are now more common and different types of research are increasingly being under- taken.12 Recent examples include Schoepf's (1993) account of the AIDS-action research methodology developed in Zaire by Project CONNAISSIDA, a transdisciplinary medical anthropology project. Schopper et al. (1993) discuss the use of indirect methods to validate data on sexual behaviour collected during a Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) survey in Uganda and call for a standardised approach to validating findings from AIDS-related KAP surveys, and for the examination of test- retest reliability of some of the sensitive questions in the standardised WHO model questionnaire. Given the predominance of KAP studies in research, planning and evaluation, any improvement in that method is to be welcomed. Konde-Lule et al. (1993) discuss the use of focus group discussions in a Rakai Project study which were used to validate KAP survey data, evaluate behaviour and to generate new areas of 180 Review of African Political Economy investigations and questions which could be included in future surveys; and Green (1992a) discusses focus groups and key-informant interviews in investigating cultural knowledge and practices related to STDs in Liberia.13 The results of a study using tape-recorded interviews, focus group discussions, and direct observations of risk behaviour over a 6-month period in Kagera Region, Tanzania are reported in Lwihula et al. (1993). Analysis of news coverage can be found in Bledsoe (1991) and Pitts and Jackson (1993); and discourse analysis has been used by Seidel (1993c) and (Miles 1993). Issues relating to women and gender are increasingly evident in HIV/AIDS research — the different experiences of and outcomes of HIV and AIDS for men and women can no longer be overlooked. Globally, one million women became infected in 1993 alone, and by the year 2000 the WHO expects that over 13 million women will have been infected of whom some 4 million will have died. Women are now 'at the centre of our concern said WHO Global Programme on AIDS Director (GPA) Michael Merson last year.14 'AIDS in Africa is a development, gender and human rights issue' wrote Seidel (1993a; see also Seidel 1993b & 1993c) in a recent review, and she refers to the new critical agenda concerned with female poverty, the centrality of gender relations and the need to promote women's empowerment ... articulated by leading non- governmental organizations and researchers cooperating with developing countries (Seidel 1993a:l).

The Management of STDs This approach is reflected in The Hidden Costs of AIDS, and in the current policies of the European Community. The EC has established a new unit to deal with Health in Development (DG Vin/8), and the Council of Ministers for Development has identified priority areas in the field of HIV/AIDS and set out four strategic objectives (involving both short-term and longer-term interventions): (1) to minimise the spread of the epidemic while preventing discrimination (which includes the management of STDs, use of protective barriers and sexual and reproductive health medicine); (2) to enable the health sector to cope; (3) to reduce the consequences on social and economic development; (4) to increase scientific understanding and learning. One of its policy principles is 'Gender sensitivity and specificity', and refers inter alia to the need for political and economic empowerment of women and their legal protection (Dellicour & Fransen 1994:3). The World Bank's recommendations inevitably include condoms, a tendentious issue in Africa and one in which gender is indeed a sensitive issue. Here I want to focus on another recommendation with gendered implications — its recognition of the pressing need for STD prevention and control programmes. Tanzania has no formal STD programme and cases are not properly reported or recorded, though it proposes to establish 5 STD clinics and improve STD services in 100 health facilities in a phased approach. The emphasis on STDs by the Bank, in the EC's objectives, in the Panos publications (and in Gordon & Kanstrup (1992) and Dixon-Mueller (1993)), reflects an urgent problem — globally over 200 million STD infections occur annually. The association between the transmission of STDs and particularly genital ulcer diseases (GUDs) has been well documented, and non-ulcerative STDs may now also be implicated. HTV-prevention programmes must therefore provide for STD control (e.g., Moodie & Aboagye-Kwarteng 1993), and issues of sexuality need to be integrated into primary health care as well (Gordon & Kanstrup 1992; Seidel 1993b). HIV/AIDS in Eastern and Southern Africa 181 Though STDs are widespread in Africa and prevalence rates inordinately high (Green 1992b), formal STD services are still uncommon; Zambia claimed to have started the first national STD control programme in sub-Saharan Africa in 1980.15 Green (1992b) suggests that in Swaziland and elsewhere one reason for lack of official knowledge about STDs is that (if detected) they are often treated outside the orthodox health care system. In Zimbabwe pelvic inflammatory disease is responsible for over 40 per cent of gynaecological admissions (De Muylder 1988:84), and in 1989 over 900,000 people (out of some 5 million adults) were treated for STDs. STDs cause still-births, general health problems and infertility, which is in turn a factor in marital failure and thus in forcing women to turn to prostitution for economic survival. AIDS: The Second Decade points out that the normal infertility rate in a population is 3 per cent, but the range among women in south-eastern Angola, north-eastern Zambia and other African countries is 21-40 per cent. A recent study (Cossa et al. 1994) of 1,728 displaced pregnant women in Zambezia Province, Mozambique found the prevalence of past or current syphilis was 12.2 per cent, higher than was found in a study in 1983 but within the range of prevalences (4-15 per cent) in other sub-Saharan studies and at least 8.4 per cent of the women had been sexually abused during displacement (women reporting more than 5 events of sexual abuse were more likely to be HTV-infected). STDs and HIV infections have not been systematically targeted in health programmes for refugee populations, yet women and girls in such populations are vulnerable to sexual exploitation and sexual abuse, and the authors recommend that STD screening and treatment should be part of basic health care for displaced populations.

Disaster-related issues are particularly important in eastern and southern African countries given the millions of displaced people and refugees generated by war, destabalisation, political crises and natural disasters (several millions in Mozambique alone). Where now might be the survivors (if any) of a recent survey which found that 3 out 4 women and 5 out of 9 men attenders at an STD clinic in Rwanda were co- infected with HTV? The role of the military in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS is also under increasing scrutiny, both as occupiers and as defenders. Webb's (1994) account of Namibia, where returning combatants are now in national defence forces, says military bases are becoming foci of infection for STDs and HTV. Increasing attention is being paid to gendered aspects of HIV/AIDS (e.g., Bassett & Mhloyi 1991; Ulin 1992; Gordon & Kanstrup 1992; Berer 1993; Guemy & Sjoberg 1993; Miles 1993; Seidel 1993a & b)16 as well as to other health matters (e.g., Turshen 1991; Raikes & Kabeer 1992). Improvements in STDs and other aspects of reproductive' health would both help avert the transmission of HTV and benefit women (and children) in other ways (see Dixon-Mueller 1993; Gordon & Kanstrup 1992; Turshen 1992). Integration of HIV/AIDS issues and programmes with other aspects of the health care system would further facilitate this: the EC has recognised the need for the integration of HTV/AIDS issues in a wider health framework but this has yet to become the norm. Turshen (1992) criticises USAID for its continued insistence on single-purpose programmes for AIDS prevention. As with HTV/AIDS so, too, with women: 'gender' should no longer be a euphemism for 'women'. HTV/AIDS research and initiatives should widen the agenda by paying attention both to men and to gender relations, and thus reflect the increasingly common view that women should no longer be studied in isolation. What is now needed is a focus on women in their social relations with men, on gender relations, and on men as gendered beings (see e.g., Baylies & Bujra (1993), and on male bias (cf. Elson 1991)) — or, as Obbo (1993a) puts it: 'HIV transmission: men are the solution'. 182 Review of African Political Economy Endnotes 1. 'HIV infections in Africa reach a total of 10 9. For a study of the salaula trade see Hansen million, says the WHO' AIDS Analysis Africa, (1994). Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 4. Such figures are all 10. See 'News: Africa: nursing is on the Agenda estimates, but they tend to become treated as of AIDS Conference', International Nursing reality; and checking such projections against Review, July/Aug 1990, Vol. 37, No. 4, p. actual outcomes is not easy. The number of 291. AIDS cases reported by WHO is cumulative 11. I am unaware of any study of nurses, the and includes all deaths, which is not the medical profession or auxiliary workers that normal way of recording diseases. Estimates offers the ethnographic detail in Schuster's from different sources vary widely, as a (1981) account from the pre-AIDS era of comparison of the World Health nurses' interactions with patients and the Organization's projections and those of the conflict between their cultural concepts and experts consulted for AIDS in the World the assumptions and practices of 'western' (AITW) shows (in Mann et al. 1993). WHO medicine. estimated the cumulative number of adult 12. See also examples in Dixon-Mueller (1993, AIDS cases in sub-Saharan Africa would p.278); an example of rapid rural appraisal reach 2,500,000 by 1995; AITW's best (highest) methods in health research is Welbourn estimate was 3,277,500 and for 2000 over (1992). three times higher. WHO has projected a 13. These examples are all from Social Science & cumulative total of 30-40 million by 2000, the Medicine which is an essential journal, but AITW panel nearly 109 million (ibid., Table alas a prohibitively expensive one. Health, 2/3B). Policy and Planning also regularly carries 2. By 7 January 1993 Tanzania had reported articles on methods. 38,719 AIDS cases to WHO ('Acquired 14. 'News: 13 million positive women by 2000', Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS)—Data International Nursing Review, 1994, Vol. 40, as at 31 December 1993', Weekly No. 6, p. 312. The US Centers for Disease Epidemiological Record, 1994, 69 (no. 2):5). Control has belatedly succumbed to There are also slight variations between pressures to be more gender-sensitive; figures in the executive summary and the invasive cancer of the cervix was added to text of the Bank report. the AIDS case definition in the US on 1 3. Their work in Uganda (Barnett & Blaikie January 1993; and increasing attention is 1991) incorporated material from fieldwork being paid there to gender-related differences by their anthropologist colleague, Christine in HIV/AIDS and to women's health matters Obbo, but they do not acknowledge her (see Akeroyd 1994). In Africa the sex ratio contribution here. has been roughly equal from the outset, but 4. These cannot be discussed here; and there is case definitions there too have been still a shortage of academic coverage, but see singularly gender-blind. There is evidence e.g., Fleming's (1992) review and AIDS of gender differences related to HIV- Analysis Africa. infection: Bayley (1990) found in Zambia that 5. "The National AIDS Convention of South carcinoma of the cervix was increasing with Africa (NACOSA)', HIV & AIDS Action, Vol. advanced tumours appearing in younger 4, Nr. 1,1994, p. 4. women and death often occurred in less than 6. Other Panos books cover prejudice, race and a year from diagnosis, carcinoma of the breast blaming; women and children; repercussions was more aggressive in HTV-inf ected women of the fear of AIDS; and AIDS and the Third and gynaecological sepsis much more World. common and its outcome worse. The African 7. A multinational project has recently examined AIDS case definition was not gender- trials, contributors to which included sensitive either. Marvellous Mhloyi (Zimbabwe) and Edward 15. By 1989 there were 38 clinics, and it has Katongole-Mbidde (Uganda) (Lurie, Bishaw, lowered the prevalence of syphilis in Chesneyetal. 1994). pregnant women (Hira & Matondo 1989); 8. 'Dry sex: why women use Colgate toothpaste, and the programme has since been expanded. newsprint, vinegar, cotton wool and herbs', 16. See also 'The gender issue', AIDS Analysis AIDS Analysis Africa, Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 3. Africa, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp.11-15. describes a Zimbabwean study. 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Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa

Morris Szeftel

The global proliferation of communal conflicts has its parallel in South Africa where the end of apartheid produced new demands for the recognition of group rights and ethnic interests. These run directly counter to the insistence of the ANC and its allies on a secular democracy based on equality of citizenship. Ethnic conflict, and particularly the violence in KwaZulu/Natal, has led to a renewal of interest in the study of ethnicity, particularly in problems related to its definition and to its nature in the South African context. Such issues raise questions about the role played by ethnicity in contemporary politics and about its place in the process of democratization. Although the renewed interest in ethnicity is timely, questions exist about the extent to which ethnic claims in South Africa have widespread support, or represent evidence of the resurgence of ethnicity rather than the assertiveness of heavily-armed political machines.

Ethnic conflict has become a central feature of the politics of the nineties. The international media increasingly presents us with a picture of a world in which the crudest prejudices and most brutal injuries imaginable (and previously unimagina- ble) are perpetrated everywhere in the name of national, racial, ethnic, linguistic or religious rights. The assertion of communal interests and identities has achieved a new legitimacy and respectability, entering the discourse of electoral politics, justifying violence against communities and individuals, coining the language of 'ethnic cleansing'. No country appears to be immune: the contagion is most generalised in Europe, but perhaps most devastating in Africa, where it has undermined attempts at democratic transition and even, in Somalia and Rwanda, consumed the state itself. Such events are reflected in a new interest in questions of ethnic conflict and increasing emphasis on its importance in Africa. Donald Horowitz, for instance, asserts that 'politics all over Africa — and nearly all over the world — has a strong ethnic component' (1985:41). D Ghai, Y Ghai and D Westendorff, in an article entitled 'Ethnicity, development and democracy', argue that ethnicity is perhaps the most important influence on third world social and political systems, inflicting discrimina- tion on minorities, undermining order and development, even putting the very survival of some states at risk (UNESCO 1992, quoted in Bekker 1993:80). Martin Doornbos (ROAPE 52,1991) puts it even more strongly, arguing that ethnicity should be seen as a basic constitutive element prevalent in almost all African societies. Such perspectives are echoed in the growing attention given to ethnicity in South Africa. Thus Pierre van den Berghe asserts that South Africa 'remains a plural society with a population divided by deep rifts of class, race and ethnicity ... (It is) highly likely 186 Review of African Political Economy (that) race and ethnicity will continue to play a salient role in South African politics for the foreseeable future, with probably a decreasing emphasis on race and an increasing one on ethnicity' (1990 quoted in Bekker 1993:1). Van den Berghe's thesis is given additional force by the way in which the democratic transition, the culmination of a struggle to create a common society and citizenship, has been preoccupied with the demands of various elements of the apartheid order for recognition of their 'group' interests in any new constitutional dispensation. Ironically, while the collapse of apartheid has discredited race as an denominator of political organisation, it appears to have given ethnicity a new lease of life. A multitude of crises concerning the ethnic question have presented themselves to the politics of constitutional transition, sometimes violently: the reincorporation of the 'independent homelands' of Bophutatswana, , and ; demands for an Afrikaner ; language rights and recognition in law, education, and administration; the status of traditional political elites; and, above all, Inkatha's demands for KwaZulu autonomy. These pressures are not that surprising: apartheid organised institutions and interests in ethnic terms and many of these interests have responded to democratization by using ethnic identity to defend old privileges.

The process has renewed intellectual concern with the nature and role of ethnicity in South African politics. Three important conferences were held within the space of eight months in 1992 and 1993: the first, entitled Ethnicity, Society and Conflict in Natal took place at the University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, in September 1992 (and was reviewed by Gerhard Mare and John Wright in ROAPE 59); a second, Etat, Nation, Ethnicite, took place at the Centre d'Etude d'Afrique Norde at Bordeaux in November 1992; a third, Ethnicity, Identity and Nationalism: Comparative Perspectives was organised by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at Rhodes University in Grahamstown in April 1993 and attracted a large international presence to South Africa. In addition, the growing number of articles and reports appearing in South African journals have been augmented by two important monographs. Simon Bekker's Ethnicity in Focus: The South African Case provides a most comprehensive survey of the comparative literature. Gerhard Mare's Ethnicity and Politics in South Africa is an outstanding — and essential — contribution to the field, providing a lucid interpretation of the subject and an incisive analysis of Inkatha's claim to speak for Zulu ethnic interests. We can expect more such studies in the next few years — especially given Inkatha's strong showing in KwaZulu/Natal in the 1994 elections and the likelihood that it will use this to try to increase its control of the local population.

Ethnicity and Bekker notes that this activity follows a period of some 15 years in which, outside Afrikaner intellectual circles, ethnicity was generally treated as no more than a symptom of the deeper contradictions of racial capitalism (Bekker 1993:3). Thus, Claude Meillasoux argued in 1988 that 'as a result of state manipulation ... contemporary 'ethnic groups' in SA are no more than administrative interventions, without historical foundations or living social identities' (quoted in Bekker 1993:1). In contrast with such views, the 'ethnic revival' of the late eighties and nineties has been fuelled by events that go well beyond South Africa's political transition:

the collapse of communism, the ensuing upsurge of nationalist conflict in eastern Europe, and the increasing visibility of racism in the West, has given a new and urgent focus to Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 187

problems of race, nation and identity. Within the academic world these developments have helped to precipitate a bewildering state of 'paradigms lost'. Most notably the strength of materialist analysis — both as an analytical and a practical programme — has been severely fractured. Ethnicity, which, like nationalism, has often been seen by marxists as a form of irrational false consciousness, cannot any longer be explained away or ignored in this way (Dubow 1993:1). The new emphasis on ethnicity thus represents a shift on two related fronts. The first involves a welcome corrective to a previous tendency to treat the subject by crude materialist reductionism (as false consciousness, a mask for class interests, an expression of the contradictions of capital accumulation, and so on) while refusing to concede any real autonomy of action to communal forces. It is important to stress that the reductionist tendency has not been as widespread as is often pretended by its critics and that many marxists, from Lionel Foreman on, have neither ignored nor dismissed the ethnic factor in South Africa (Foreman & Odendaal 1992: especially pp. 218-220). But it is also important to acknowledge that there has been a tendency by some to substitute 'false consciousness' for analysis. The second, at times bound up with the most recent effort to lay marxism to rest, is more problematic, offering ethnicity as a primary explanatory value, an alternative to class analysis, an 'antidote' to materialist 'errors' or 'essentialism'. For some this is all part of the present post- modernist temper. For others it is a means of asserting the autonomy of the political from the process of capital accumulation; Paul Rich, for instance, insists that the 'homelands were largely the creation of Afrikaner nationalist ideologists rather than businessmen ...' (1993:11).

In the South African context, the attempt to separate ethnic forces from the accumulation process can be linked not only to a critique of marxism but to criticism of the aspirations of the liberation movement and its sympathizers as well. Thus, Lawrence Schlemmer's preface to Bekker's book (1993:ii) includes this assertion:

Let us hope... that the research and scholarship in this time of troubled transition will not, as before, try to prove that the dynamics of our turmoil are to be found in obscure linkages with fundamentals which are beyond our ability to deal with.... I hope that we will not be taken through tortuous logic to 'prove' that this or that category of people can never accept an open democracy, or that some or another category of violence is being manipulated by corporate capital, that 'third forces' are so omnipotent that they can control thousands of people like puppets or that if we intone 'non-racial, non-sexist democracy' often enough in learned articles it will somehow materialise. If we as social scientists are going to help South Africa to overcome its past, we must be prepared to confront a muddled reality, riddled with history and often driven by consciousness we would dearly love to call 'false'. If we respect South Africa's people we must, in addition to the underlying factors we would assert, respect their definitions and consciousness. There are, however, real problems about explaining politics in terms of the primacy of ethnicity. It is one thing to reject the view that ethnic claims are simply epiphenomenal, a reflection of other forces. Such an approach allows us a number of testable arguments which are at the heart of contemporary African politics: for instance, that ethnic conflicts, once unleashed, develop an autonomy far beyond the material or class forces from which they originated; or that no ethnic conflict can ever be reduced simply to its material or class origins. It is quite another thing, however, to argue that ethnic divisions are an, or even the essential element of African politics, thus substituting a new determinism. The 188 Review of African Political Economy crudest forms of this thesis generally turn up in western media caricatures of Africa but scholarship is not immune from it. A colloquium on 'First Elections', held at the University of Durban-Westville on the eve of South Africa's April 1994 elections, threw up the proposition that African elections could be understood by 'doing the ethnic arithmetic': Kanu won in Kenya because the 'Kikuyu-Luo alliance' (a strange ethnic group, surely?) outnumbered the rest; Zanu beat Zapu in Zimbabwe because 'the Shona' outnumbered 'the Ndebele' — claims which did not appear to strike the audience as problematic. Interestingly, one person at the symposium assessed Kenya politics in terms of 'ethnic arithmetic' but, when looking at recent events in the Russian Federation, ethnicity took a back seat to the personalities and policies of Yeltsin and Zhirinovsky. Ethnicity in this reductionist form seems often to be a disorder that afflicts black people most severely, eastern Europeans rather less so and Anglo-Saxons hardly at all.

These observations point to a few of the many questions thrown up by the 'ethnic revival'. What is ethnicity — and what is it not? What evidence is there, in any particular case, that what we are observing is, in fact, a manifestation of ethnicity and not something else dressed up to pass? The desire to 'respect their definitions and consciousness', as Schlemmer put it, does not remove the obligation to determine that what political actors tell us is so, actually is so. A third question inevitably imposes itself on these first two, namely, on what political and moral basis do particular ethnic claims rest? These are far more than questions of definition and evidence. Ethnic claims are being accorded a great deal of legitimacy by political and academic apologists who use them as a means of denying demands for social justice and democracy or of asserting group interests at the expense of individual citizenship. The criteria on which such claims are given legitimacy, the manner in which they can or should be represented in a democratic political system are seldom stipulated and far from clear. These are not claims to which we can — or should — accede uncritically.

The Elements of Ethnicity In their review of the Natal Conference, Mare and Wright bemoaned the shortage of definitions of ethnicity (ROAPE 59,1994). This weakness is hardly surprising; there is a great deal of conceptual slippage in treatments of the phenomenon. For so powerful a social force, ethnicity seems particularly elusive, meaning very different things to different people; Southall appropriately speaks of its 'phantom-like quality' (1993: 261). M G Smith originally gave it a marked biological component; Leo Kuper coupled it first with race (1969) and then used it as a substitute for tribe (1977) (Dubow 1993:7,8). 'Like many portmanteau words' notes Dubow, '"ethnic" or "ethnicity" can serve as a euphemistic substitute for other appellations' (1993:3). In South Africa this lack of precision is even more marked, arising in part from the changing role that the concept has played in political and intellectual practice. Dubow notes that in the thirties it began to be used in preference to race by those who wished to challenge explanations based on heredity by asserting instead the role of culture and environment. In the forties and fifties, however, it was appropriated by segregationists who stressed cultural difference. In apartheid discourse, observes Dubow (1993:5), ethnicity came to serve as a synonym for a variety of plural forms — 'the people' (volk), culture, population group, nation. Although some of its leading intellectuals asserted a difference between biology (race) and culture (people, volk or ethnos) there was a degree of merging of the two; for such writers, ethnicity Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 189 represented the relationship between a volk and its culture. In the seventies, there was another shift as ethnicity came to be used by liberal Afrikaners to 'demystify' this rigid classification of 'the people'. Not surprisingly, once the South African government had decided to abandon apartheid, it too followed suit and replaced both race and volk with a looser version of 'ethnicity' to denominate group interests. This record as a peripatetic synonym or euphemism makes ethnicity a confusing and confused concept. Is it the same thing as tribe or 'tribalism'? Is it just another term for race? Is it a blanket expression, a dustbin concept, to hold all categories of primordial or communal identity? How does it relate to social divisions based on class or gender? Crawford Young correctly insists that 'ethnicity and class are autonomous determi- nants of social action' and observes that the former is more easily mobilised than the latter (quoted in Bekker 1993:21). It has proved more difficult, however, to theorise how the two might be articulated. Given such unstable ground, those interested in a critical evaluation of the renewed cycle of ethnic conflict, need to find a more concrete basis for understanding ethnicity. Bekker's invaluable survey of authorities is one contribution to this task; but, while it sets out many approaches and alternatives with clarity and insight, it is less concerned to propose a definition which brings together the different tendencies. The task is more central to Mare's excellent exploration of the ethnic claims of Inkatha. For him, ethnic identity is a question of an historical process of group formation specific to each group. Ethnicity, argues Mare, constitutes a process of 'social identity formation' (1993:23). The development of this identity rests on three main dimensions which constitute the elements of his definition of ethnicity. These elements, in fact, draw together many of the key ideas found in recent writings and address a number of core theoretical problems. The first element in Mare's definition is that ethnicity rests on 'culturally specific practice and a unique set of symbols and beliefs' (1993:23-24 and chapters 1 & 2). For him, the force of ethnicity lies precisely in the way in which primordial characteristics (inherited at birth) are given a contemporary construction through socialisation and mobilisation in cultural or political movements: 'the identities people are socialised into usually exist prior to their mobilisation into those identities' (p. 27). In this way Mare tries to draw together the polarities of what is perhaps the most basic debate among ethnicists, namely the question of how far ethnicity is an expression of a primordial inheritance and how far it is, instead, socially or historically constructed through organizations, class experiences and so on. Colonial practice, apartheid scholarship and much early liberal writing understood ethnicity to be a 'natural' outgrowth of shared primordial characteristics. More recently, historians have focused on the ways in which ethnic identity is constructed and primordial features given social and political relevance — so that participants come to feel that they belong to 'natural' groups, 'predetermined' categories. As Denis-Constant Martin observes, 'identities are constructed... the communities... are, as Benedict Anderson put it, "imagined"' (1993:9). Mare, like many contemporary scholars (see Bekker 1993: 6-15), understands that there is nothing 'natural' or 'automatic' about the way in which people are captured for (or herded into) ethnic categories and movements; it requires the effort of movements and leaders ('cultural brokers', 'ethnic entrepre- neurs' and 'organic intellectuals' (p. 27)) to imagine and construct. Equally correctly, however, he insists that what is imagined must be based in the concrete character or experience of people; the imagined community cannot be arbitrarily imagined. 190 Review of African Political Economy The second element of the definition includes what Mare calls a belief in a common origin — the presence of a common past. This involves the existence or even invention of a history (or myth or 'narrative') which can legitimate the existence of the group, define its boundaries against others, legitimate authority, class and gender roles within it, and set out action and behaviour in terms of past precedents (1993:14-20). Thus, although ethnicity constantly asserts the value of the past, it does so to legitimise present identity or project. justified apartheid by invoking past struggles and experiences of the volk. Inkatha invokes a glorious Zulu past in order to negotiate about a South African future. For many writers, ethnicity is intimately bound up with contemporary processes of change and development (Bekker 1993:6-15; Glazer & Moynihan 1975). In turn, conflict follows naturally through the competition for resources for which ethnic groups are mobilised. Implicit in this invocation of a common myth is the third dimension of Mare's definition, 'a sense of belonging to a group that ... confirms social identities' of members in relation to other members and outsiders. The construction of ethnic identity involves the group being defined in opposition to other groups. As Martin observes, 'one identity cannot be defined in isolation: the only way to circumscribe an identity is by contrasting it against other identities.' Consequently, he argues, the group requires the simultaneous identification of an 'Other' as a threat against which to mobilise (1993:1-2,11). Thus, for many writers including those who are not primarily interested in ethnicity (Bayart, for example) competition for resources in post-colonial Africa makes ethnicity a logical conflict fault-line since such groups already identify outsiders and potential 'enemies' as part of their sense of solidarity.

The Politicisation of Ethnicity These three elements can come together, argues Mare, to produce an ideology that links political action, 'the call addressed to ethnic subjects in their mobilisation', to social identity, 'the outlook and practices of members of ethnic groups' (p. 24). But such a politicisation of ethnicity is not inevitable:

Ethnicity can be an identity that demands no more than a sense of belonging. Or it may have no relevance amongst the many social identities acknowledged. However, it can also involve an identity that serves political and material purposes or advances these 'non- ethnic' interests (1993:31). It follows, then, that the construction of political ethnicity is all-important. It may be to defend perceived 'ethnic interests' or to promote an agenda that has nothing to do with ethnicity. It might remain confined to the expression of cultural or linguistic solidarity; or it might develop into a political programme with territorial ambitions, nationalism. The circumstances or issues on which the mobilised group will campaign, co-operate or fight (if at all) cannot simply be 'read off from the assertion of group identity. A variety of forces, historical and social, will shape the form of the appeal made to subjects, the way in which group membership is defined, the programme of action proposed, and the way in which some elements of the group 'history' are selected for inclusion, others are excluded and many remain contested within the group. Mare's approach is a valuable start in providing a corrective for much reductionist writing about ethnic conflict. Indeed, one would go further in this than he does. One of the most troubling dimensions of this literature is the ease with which 'ethnicity' comes to mean, simultaneously, 'ethnic identity', 'the mobilisation of identity for Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 191 purposes of political representation' and 'conflict between ethnic groups'. In conference discussions in Grahamstown, for instance, people tended to use ethnicity to mean different things: the process of becoming conscious of belonging to a particular group; the process of articulating a set of demands; the process of organising for political competition or political conflict; the process of organising for violent conflict against particular groups or institutions. Yet it must be argued that these are all qualitatively different kinds of consciousness and action and that each requires a different kind of mobilisation and organisation. None follows necessarily or automatically from any other. To lump all of them under one rubric — 'ethnicity' — is to make of 'ethnicity' little more than a conceptual holdall meaning anything one likes. Given the intensity of so many ethnic conflicts and the subjectivist nature of ethnicity this tendency to collapse different layers of action together is understandable. Yet we need to remind ourselves that many people with different identities live together in varying degrees of tolerance and even generosity. People can be conscious of a particular identity without it having much relevance for the way they conduct their personal lives. They can also exhibit high levels of prejudice against other groups, even discriminating against them in all sorts of areas of social and personal life, and yet still vote for, or belong to, the same political movements. Most African nationalist parties which won independence were multi-ethnic in character even though such ethnic groups competed with each other for access to the state. In India, characterised by social divisions often even more rigid than those of race in South Africa, and by frequent and persistent outbreaks of communal conflict, members of different castes and religious communities have nevertheless campaigned together in the same political movements, and worked in the same bureaucracies and business organisa- tions. It is all too easy to assume that 'who says ethnicity, says conflict' and to forget to ask which forces and institutions politicise divisions and structure conflict and how they do it.

Reinventing Ethnicity under Apartheid Much of the preceding discussion, like much of the literature, emphasises what Dubow (1993:15) calls the act of claiming — the way in which groups develop a subjective consciousness of themselves. As important in South Africa (if not more so) has been a process of what he calls naming — the way in which those with power define those who are powerless as belonging to primordial ethnic categories. Much of the history of apartheid has been about the invention or reinvention of ethnicity, through the fostering of ethnic homelands. It lay at the heart of the grand design of apartheid, the division of the black population into 10 ethnic homelands. It became the stuff of daily administrative practice, structuring the lives of black South Africans at every level. It is impossible to overstate the extent and importance of this process of 'naming'. The destruction of 'tribal' political power during the colonial wars of conquest in the nineteenth century had effectively ended this form of African political resistance. Administrative practice further eroded the authority and economic base of traditional rural elites. Paulus Zulu observes that modern liberation movements were organised on a non-ethnic or non-racial basis. It was the National Party, he asserts, that reversed the process; it contrived and rewarded politicised ethnicity in order to sustain its own domination (Bekker 1993:2). From the early sixties, the government set out not only to crush its opponents but to reorient African political aspirations towards rural ethnic 292 Review of African Political Economy 'homelands' (made up of the traditional labour reserves and some of the dormitory townships of the urban working class) each with a 'government' dependent for its budget on funds from Pretoria. These homeland regimes were dominated by traditional elites at once dependent on the state and armed with new powers of patronage, policing and control over the black populations delivered into their jurisdiction. For millions of Africans, obedience to homeland and traditional authorities became obligatory for access to land and work. Two seemingly contradictory consequences flowed from this policy. Firstly, the control exercised by these regimes over land allocation and urban migration made people dependent on their patronage and jealous of the distribution of such very scarce favours. This was further intensified by the pressure on resources which resulted from people being forced out of the towns and off white-owned farms into the homelands. A number of rural studies indicate a fierce resentment of people not 'entitled', people who are not Pedi, or Pondo, or whatever, being given land, housing, a job in the local bureaucracy, or a loan. The process is acutely observed in Colin Murray's outstanding study of land and class in Thaba Nchu in the Orange :

From the late 1960s, a housing freeze was imposed in ... African locations attached to 'white' towns in various parts of the province; and pass law restrictions were intensified. The result was a massive flow of refugees from 'white' areas, both urban and rural.... The Barolong Tribal Authority at Thaba Nchu resented the surge of newcomers who quickly became a numerical majority of non-Tswana. The people were divided into citizens of Bophutatswana, who were able to compete for access to residence permits, jobs, schools, pensions, rudimentary services, etc in Thaba Nchu; and citizens of Qwaqwa, who were excluded from that competition. Here as elsewhere, the politics of separate development gave rise to vicious inter-ethnic antagonisms (1992:285). The use of ethnic identity as the measure of entitlement in the allocation of inadequate resources thus has an obvious consequence of politicising ethnic boundaries. Murray's conclusions are echoed by Bekker and Manona's observations about tensions between Zulus and Pondo migrants from the neighbouring Transkei (Donaldson et al, 1992:241-54). They detail a variety of cases — Zulu resentment over the factory employment of Pondos (generally in better jobs) finally culminating in the Pondos being sacked, new housing development being restricted to KwaZulu citizens while Pondos remained in squatter settlements, demands for the removal of a Zulu councillor who sold and rented plots to Pondos — which produced a steady escalation of conflict and initiated a cycle of violence. In an important survey of South African political debates written on the eve of constitutional negotiations, Adam and Moodley observe that conflict between different African groups is fundamentally based on divisions between those entitled to live in towns under the Group Areas Act and more recent arrivals and illegal squatters who lack access to resources and are vulnerable to police harassment. As the outsiders poured into settlements after the end of influx control, conflict between the relatively less deprived and the relatively more deprived was inevitable. It is this competition, they argue, that politicises ethnic divisions:

The politicization of ethnicity (nationalism, tribalism) occurs everywhere in the world not only because ethnic exclusiveness provides scapegoats and explanations for hardship but also because it eliminates competitors by exclusion. If one segment manages to restrict scarce goods (land, taxi routes, houses, schools, clinics) to its members only, it has objectively increased its advantages in the general competition. Only in this respect is tribalism a 'natural phenomenon'. Exclusion has little to do with historical animosities. Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 193

which are often invented, manipulated and exploited by political mobilizers to gain an edge. This advantage is further reinforced by the new emotional cohesion of the group... In times of transition and crisis, symbolic rewards of a proud identity compensate for material deprivation and general insecurity (1993:14-15). The apartheid system was therefore able to use the very deprivation and dispossession which it imposed on Africans to 'reinvent' ethnic differences. Yet it is important also to note the second, contradictory, consequence of this policy — the new homeland authorities were generally perceived as collaborators and even as the local agents of the state. For the most part, therefore, they had little legitimacy, were widely despised and often required extremely high levels of coercion to keep control and even avoid assassination. The contributors to a special issue of the Journal of Contemporary African Studies devoted to the reincorporation of Transkei into South Africa almost unanimously portray a system which has little respect, and little support; reincorporation was problematic only for the functionaries and petty bourgeois beneficiaries of the homeland; it was a problem in terms of Xhosa identity or sensibilities. Even the demand that the deposed Thembu chief, Sabata Dalindyebo, be buried according to traditional custom was, argues Dennie, an expression of support for the ANC rather than an assertion of Thembu identity (Donaldson et al, 1992:76-87).

Once the Transkei military had overthrown those sections of the regional elite with an interest in 'independence' there was little opposition to reincorporation. A similar pattern can be seen in the collapse of the Ciskei and Bophutatswana homelands in 1993 and 1994. In both cases, key sections of 'the beneficiaries of independence' (the civil service, police and military) withdrew their support from ruling cliques opposed to reincorporation, whereupon both 'states' immediately collapsed. There was little attempt to justify the existence of such homelands in terms of their ability to represent ethnic interests or in terms of any kind of ethnic identity. For all their ethnic labels, they were administrative arrangements which benefitted a small group of middle class functionaries. Once it was clear that democratization would protect pensions and jobs whereas continued 'independence' would have had to be maintained without South African administrative and budgetary support, they slid quickly into the dustbin of political history. A number of parties representing these deposed homeland elites were crushingly defeated in the 1994 elections, the first to be held under a universal franchise. In all the former homelands save one, the ANC won overwhelming majorities. State-sponsored ethnicity proved to be a force which complicated the process of democratization and which forced a number of concessions from the ANC-led alliance in favour of apartheid interests during the constitutional negotiations. But as a representation of communal interests it proved, again with one exception, a hollow shell, lacking support or legitimacy.

Inkatha and the Politics of Zulu Ethnicity The one exception was Inkatha which dominated the 'self-governing homeland' of KwaZulu until the 1994 elections (when the homeland system formally ended) and emerged as by far the largest party in KwaZulu/Natal after the elections. Inkatha's claims to be the authentic representation of Zulu identity and its opposition to the strikes and mass action of the seventies and eighties brought it into conflict with the UDF, Cosatu and ANC. Violence between ANC and Inkatha supporters has claimed tens of thousands of lives in Natal and in the East Rand of the Transvaal since the mid- eighties. Inkatha obtained a plurality of more than 40% of the vote in KwaZulu/Natal 194 Review of African Political Economy in the 1994 elections to become the dominant force in the regional government. With more than 10% of the national vote, it also has two Cabinet posts in the government of national unity which took office in May. Clearly this is a far more substantial and legitimate political force than those found in the other homelands. This has given weight to its demands for constitutional recognition of the and for a federal structure which severely limits central government powers and enshrines high levels of regional autonomy. Much of the present interest in ethnicity in South Africa derives from the strength of Inkatha's support and its effectiveness as a political organisation representing traditional values in opposition to the UDF, ANC and Cosatu. Inkatha presents many of the essential features of mobilised ethnicity. It invokes a Zulu identity and solidarity based on the idea of an ancient nation which resisted colonial conquest and capitalist penetration into the early twentieth century, well after other ethnic groups had capitulated (Mare 1993:63 and chapters 4, 5). This history, communicated through party speeches and structures as well as via an Inkatha civics syllabus for schools, honours the kingdom's historic leaders, especially Shaka, in order to legitimate their present heirs, including the King, Goodwill Zwelithini. Inkatha's celebration of leadership allocates a central position to its leader, Chief Mangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi, the king's uncle, and to the role of chieftaincy. From its formation in 1975, the party has relied heavily on the power of chiefs in rural areas and has acted to attract their support (p. 54). This has, in turn, strengthened Inkatha's appeal to 'traditional' values. As 'brothers born of warrior stock', Inkatha celebrates 'Zulu manhood' based on a glorious military past and accords women status primarily as the Ijearers of warriors' (pp. 68, 71). King Goodwill Zwelithini has characterised Zulus as valorous, indomitable, prudent and wise. Inkatha (the name of an important traditional symbol of unity) is presented as the embodiment of the nation, its past and its values.

Moreover, in mobilising identity, Inkatha has persistently defined and redefined members and 'others'. Initially Buthelezi depicted all Zulus as members of Inkatha and their various enemies as whites, the government, Xhosas and Indians (Mare 1993:75). In the eighties, however, the increasingly bitter conflict between Inkatha and liberation politics divided people in Natal and on the Rand and led to the identification of 'an enemy within', Zulus who did not accept Inkatha leadership and who, indeed, denounced it as an apartheid structure. These people Inkatha now branded as traitors. In 1986, the King called on all Zulus to 'eliminate from your midst all those disgusting usurpers of our dignity ... Thrash them, if necessary, only to purge them into becoming better Zulus' (Mare:72-3). The identification of an 'enemy within', of Zulus who refused to accept the group boundaries prescribed for them by Buthelezi, alerts us to the problems of using ethnicity to understand even Inkatha. Inkatha was, and is, both less than and more than an ethnic movement. 'Less than' because, for all its support, Zulu loyalty is shared with the ANC (reports of widespread polling irregularities in April 1994 implies that Inkatha might have less than 50% support among Zulus in KwaZulu/ Natal; its vote in the townships of the industrial Transvaal, where there is a large Zulu population, demonstrates only minority backing there). Many Zulus clearly feel better represented by the ANC, which speaks to a wider concept of citizenship and yet includes Dube and Luthuli (both Zulus) among its past presidents. And 'more than' because Inkatha appeals to a wider support base than those who could be identified as Zulus — although (Southall 1981) about 95% of its members are Zulu speaking. Some of its most influential leaders are whites bitterly hostile to the ANC. A substantial Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 195 proportion of the white community in Natal undoubtedly voted for it in 1994. So did a small proportion of conservative and traditionalist blacks who were not Zulu. It enjoys close relations with capital. This lack of ethnic 'fit' or congruence arises from the trajectory of Inkatha's — and Buthelezi's — history. Buthelezi has often observed that had he not become chief of the Buthelezi 'tribe' in 1957, so becoming a functionary of the 'Bantu Authorities' system, an alternative path within ANC Youth League politics was open to him (Mare 1993:54-55). In the 1950s, with Luthuli both a Zulu chief and the ANC president, both identities were comfortably compatible. In 1970, he accepted leadership of the apartheid structures that were to become the KwaZulu Legislative Assembly (KLA) and the KwaZulu homeland. In 1975, Inkatha was formed as a Zulu movement. Both Mare (pp. 55-62) and Southall (1981) present a picture of Buthelezi and Inkatha as constantly balancing conflicting appeals and policies. Inkatha was set up as an ethnic political movement but used ANC symbolism and, in 1977, became open to all Africans. Buthelezi headed the local apartheid structures but used them to condemn apartheid and refused the 'independence' taken by collaborators in other homelands. The KLA was a vehicle for consolidating Buthelezi's control (not least over the chiefs) and a platform for expressing support for a common, non-racial South African citizenship. Inkatha portrayed itself as defender of the and yet exercised firm control over the king. The KLA was used to promote a small local petty bourgeoisie at the same time that Buthelezi courted big capital and extolled the market.

Initially, much of this was legitimised by ANC support and sponsorship for him (Mare 1993:57; Nzimande 1994:13). Inkatha drew on the ANC tradition almost as much as on Zulu ethnicity. 'Inkatha's leaders presented their organisation as a continuation of the ANC; Oscar Dhlomo, Inkatha's secretary general in 1984, observed that it was formed 'on the principles of the founding fathers of the ANC (Mare:58). By 1978, with the ANC unable to function inside South Africa, Buthelezi had appropriated its mantle; opinion polls indicated black support for him in the urban areas to be twice that for Mandela. By 1979, however, this relationship between the two organizations had foundered. Thereafter, Buthelezi became increasingly abusive in his references to the ANC and to the internal mass movements. Leaders like Dhlomo sought to portray Inkatha as standing for the founding principles of the ANC from which others, not Inkatha, were held to have deviated. The split would seem to have occurred for at least three reasons. Firstly, Buthelezi sought to usurp the role of the ANC (Nzimande 1994:13). Secondly, the ANC became increasingly concerned with Inkatha hostility towards the militant politics which resurfaced in the seventies. And thirdly, the new internal mass protest renounced Inkatha as a representative of the state and of an older generation. Thus, Steve observed in 1977 that Buthelezi

has a tribal following among the Zulus ... He speaks up strongly against apartheid, but today he is the governmentally paid leader of the Zulus. In this way he manages to gain a following. We oppose Gatsha. He dilutes the cause by operating on a government platform. Because of this I see the danger of division among blacks ... Gatsha is supported by 'oldies', for good reason, since Gatsha protects the stability that the older persons need (Southall 1981:456).

Throughout the eighties, Inkatha moved further to the right in its opposition to mass action and to the ANC. Mare shows clearly that the chiefs, party warlords, the KwaZulu police and the control of local apartheid patronage were used to entrench 196 Review of African Political Economy Inkatha's support, punish its opponents and control the rural population of KwaZulu. With the support of the government and the security police, township residents and rural dwellers were subjected to a spiralling carnage (the way in which this violence suddenly stopped once Inkatha decided to participate in the 1994 elections speaks volumes). The shift to the right now emphasised Zulu etrinicity as being under threat from communism and the ANC; it involved what Nzimande calls 'tribalism', the manipulation not just of ethnic identity but also of ethnic prejudice, against Xhosas in particular. This was combined with an appeal to white capital and western imperialism. Buthelezi came to represent 'the liberal alternative' in the eyes of the Reagan-Thatcher cold warriors. Yet 'liberal' Inkatha also increasingly opposed democratization unless it was based on strong local autonomy and regional power. To this end, it opposed democratic elections and formed alliances with racist white parties. The contradictions of the last twenty years thus continue.

The mantle of 'ethnicity' thus rests uneasily on Inkatha. Itclearly makes a strong ethnic appeal. Yet this appeal is insufficient to explain many other aspects of its activities and much of Buthelezi's strategy. If its origins lay in ethnic, homeland politics, Inkatha quickly moved to transcend this. An attempt was made to expand from an ethnic base into a national movement replacing the ANC. This foundered on the rock of militant seventies radicalism. Inkatha's response was to constitute a national, conservative alternative to the new radicalism and to move closer to the state apparatus for protection. As its horizons shrunk, its retreat forced it progressively to lean ever more on the state and its security apparatus, its regional KwaZulu base, the coercive capacities of the KLA and KZP, and ethnic and tribalist appeals. Ethnicity is a necessary but not sufficient part of the explanation of Inkatha. An interesting work in progress which explores the extent of a conscious ethnic identity among Durban workers, concludes that

there was little reference to a self-conscious sense of a 'subjective' Zulu identity in our life history interviews. Interestingly, the only feature of people's lives that was explicitly labelled as 'Zulu' was the Zulu language — the one feature of 'Zuluness' that Buthelezi appears not to have drawn on in his political mobilisation (Campbell, Mare & Walker 1993:12).

Mare's work shows vividly that Inkatha's early success rests heavily on Buthelezi's characterisation of it as a surrogate ANC and its subsequent resilience owes much to its command of the coercive and patronage structures of the KLA and KwaZulu Police. Adam and Moodley also find it difficult to explain Inkatha and its conflict with the ANC in ethnic terms:

At the root, however, lies neither a 'tribal' conflict nor an ANC/Inkatha feud. In the Western Cape townships that have no Zulu migrants, the violent competition between insiders and outsiders developed with equal intensity at times, beyond the ANC's or the civics' ability to control if... In the competition for status and power, however, common culture and history seldom predetermine political identification, particularly in South Africa. Afrikaners are deeply split about their strategies for survival. Zulu speakers, too, identify with opposing political movements, despite their shared appreciation of Zulu tradition. It is this conflicting definition of material interests that matters (1993:14). There is an alternative tradition of political explanation — that of clientelism and political machines — which describes Inkatha (and the other homeland organisations) as well as does ethnicity. What we are dealing with here are clientelist networks and factions which employ ethnic symbols to mobilise support. When Mare observes that Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 197 'clashes over land, in particular, were understood in ethnic terms, because that was the basis on which land allocation under apartheid was made, and the way in which borders were drawn between people' (1993:54) he links the pattern of patronage and coercion in KwaZulu directly to that of the other homelands. However different Inkatha may at first seem, however effective it has proved as an ethnic and , its power and survival rest on its control of coercion and patronage over an impoverished and powerless peasantry. It must be suggested that, however prevalent and intense ethnic conflict is in African politics, ethnicity is seldom the only or most important factor. The South African case would indicate that it is an element brought to bear on conflicts that have their origins and outcomes elsewhere.

Ethnicity and Democracy in South Africa This is an important issue, particularly in South Africa. Ethnicity has been the basis on which political demands have been made (the ANC, PAC and SACP have had to negotiate a transition not only with parties representing white privilege but with a whole array of homeland parties and leaders). The permanent constitution, which must be in place in 1996, will need to define the place of regional and group interests. Inkatha has participated in the transitional elections and government with reluctance. It continues to insist on a federal model with a weak centre and powerful regions, not least as a means to perpetuate its own control in KwaZulu/Natal. How such interests are addressed is therefore very important to future stability. For many scholars, ethnicity constitutes a fundamental problem for democratization, one that must be accommodated if there is to be genuine representation and stability. They argue that South Africa is a plural society in which a number of cultural-ethnic interests need to be accommodated without fear of domination by other such groups. The alternative is conflict and violence — as Inkatha's war with the ANC would indicate. Perhaps the most important and prominent argument of this kind has been put forward by Donald Horowitz whose arguments have received much attention and do not need rehearsal here (see Southall 1993 and Taylor 1993). It is enough to recall that Horowitz explicitly challenged the demands of the liberation movements for a non-racial democracy based on individual citizenship. Instead, he insisted, the idea of a non-racial, non-ethnic society in Africa was Utopian: for all the fact that the state had imposed and sponsored racial and homeland identities for black South Africans, these identities would strengthen rather than weaken once apartheid ended. Horowitz argued that ethnic divisions were dominated by a Xhosa-Zulu 'polarity', reinforced by the fact that the ANC and PAC leadership were 'ethnically skewed' (that is, disproportionately Xhosa-speaking) which manifested itself in tensions between the Zulu-dominated Inkatha and the ANC (1958:51-54). Such sentiments have been echoed in press commentaries depicting ANC-Inkatha conflict as an expression of Xhosa-Zulu hatreds, most notably by journalists such as R W Johnson. For Horowitz, South Africa merely exemplified a universal condition: 'politics all over Africa — and nearly all over the world — has a strong ethnic component' (p. 41). He predicted that ethnic conflict would be the dominant form of conflict in a post-apartheid South Africa; above all, any constitutional formula which did not give recognition to such divisions (through, for example, ethnic federal arrangements) and did not provide incentives for groups to co-operate was unlikely to be successful. His arguments, therefore, echo the negotiating position of Inkatha (and, indeed, of the NP in the early stages of the constitutional talks) and have relevance also for Afrikaner demands for a volkstaat. 198 Review of African Political Economy Such a claim will find a sympathetic echo in many parts of Africa where many ethnic minorities have experienced discrimination (and worse) under Unitarian political systems which entrenched majorities based on 'ethnic arithmetic'. The Eritrean struggle is perhaps the most famous example, but there are others. In ROAPE 54, for instance, Hussein Adam called for a consociational solution for Somalia, along lines similar to some of the proposals made for South Africa. Adam and Moodley, for instance, and despite their recognition of the material bases of ethnic conflicts discussed above, called for 'a constitutionally entrenched right to secede under carefully regulated conditions and international arbitration'. In the present conjuncture in South Africa, however, such demands pose problems for the ANC majority in the transitional government. They stand in direct contradiction to its long struggle against group privilege. The struggle against apartheid has been a struggle against the use of ethnic and racial categories to enshrine inequality and discrimination (Asmal 1993). As Taylor pointed out in his review of Horowitz, such proposals constitute a direct attack on the principles which shaped the democratic struggle against apartheid. The problem goes further than that, however. Given the problems discussed in this review are correct, the question of what ethnic interests are to be recognised and what powers are to be conceded to them becomes a difficult one. Are the ethnic interests to be given constitutional status an expression of popular concern and needs? Or are they in fact a euphemism, a synonym, for organisations, political machines and patronage networks set up under apartheid and now concerned to guard their old privileges? Put more bluntly, are the rights of individual citizens to be subordinated to the power of groups and cliques which yesterday policed and brutalised them? And are the development imperatives of millions of people deprived under apartheid to be subordinated to the need to keep paying salaries and pensions to the functionaries and flunkies of the homeland gulags? In fact, constitutional negotiations did entrench many of these privileges. Negotiations have also enshrined language rights and the status of traditional institutions at great cost to a future exchequer. Yet Inkatha claims to be unsatisfied. To whom is the right of secession proposed by Adam and Moodley to be given: to voters free of harassment or to the machine? These questions are not easily resolved, either way. Much of the problem resides with what is regarded as ethnicity and how one understands the roots of a particular conflict. Is it an ethnic conflict because someone, one side, invokes ethnic labels? Are ethnic groups to be permitted to dragoon unwilling subjects into their ranks, as they have in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia? To what remedy should constitutional principles be directed — the alleviation of material deprivation that gives rise to ethnic conflict or to the leadership interests that articulate material deprivation in ethnic terms? What is to be legitimised and what to be excluded? The prescriptions of Horowitz and others are too often based on a simplistic and inaccurate picture of what is actually happening on the ground. As Southall has observed:

Horowitz fails to unpack the conceptual complexity of ethnicity and ends up assuming it as a given ... the problem with all this is his essential equation of ethnic identity with language group, a position which bypasses the enormous difficulties which surround the very notion of ethnicity and which go far beyond its apartheid inspired imposition upon Africans: its historical construction and perpetual redefinition, the coexistence and interlocking of multiple sub ethnic layers and divisions, its situational plasticity, its simultaneous compatibility and contestation with nationalism, and, not least, its phantom- Ethnicity and Democratization in South Africa 199

like quality which leaves one thrashing in midair whenever one seeks to grasp it. The issue is not that Horowitz uses the notion of ethnicity but that he leaves it unproblematised! (1993:261).

Yet in one way Horowitz is right. The new South African state will face a fundamental challenge in addressing many ethnic and communal demands. Its ability to respond to them without resort to coercion and, more, its ability to restructure institutions so that demands are channelled more along democratic lines and less in terms set by relatively privileged political fixers, will ultimately be the test of its success or failure. Ethnicity tests democratic debate and institutions to the limit. It substitutes the universal values of human rights and equal citizenship with the demands of sectional and particularistic interest. It raises the temperature of debate by consumatory appeals to group rights. It reduces resource allocation to questions about group shares rather than to criteria of social justice.

Morris Szeftel is in the Department of Politics, University of Leeds.

Bibliographic Note Adam, Heribert and Moodley, Kogila (1993), Horowitz, Donald L (1985), Ethnic Groups in The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options Conflict, Berkeley, University of California; for the New South Africa, Berkeley, University Donald L Horowitz, A Democratic South of California; Adam, H and Moodley, K Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided (1992), 'Political violence, "tribalism" and Society, Berkeley, University of California, Inkatha', Journal of Modern African. Studies 1991). 30.3 (1992) 484-510. Marè, Gerhard (1993), Ethnicity and Politics in Asmal, Kader (1993), 'The democratic option, South Africa, London, Zed Press (previously ethnicity & power'.* published 1992 by Ravan Press, Bekker, Simon (1993), Ethnicity in Focus: The as Brothers Born of Warrior Blood: Politics and South African Case, Durban, Indicator SA, Ethnicity in South Africa). 1993. Martin, Denis-Constant (1993), 'The choices of Campbell, Cathy, Marè, Gerhard, Walker, identity'.* Cheryl (1993), 'Reinterpretations of the rural Murray, Colin (1992), Black Mountain: Land, Class past in the ethnic identity of Zulu-speaking and Power in the Eastern men and women' in Natal'.* 1880s—1980s, University of Edinburgh Press. Donaldson, Andrew, Segar, Julia, Southall, Nzimande, Blade (1994), 'The Zulu kingdom: Roger (eds) (1992), Undoing Independence: Buthelezi's short-cut to power', The African Regionalism and the Reincorporation of Transkei Communist (First Quarter, 1994). into South Africa, special issue of Journal of Rich, Paul (1993), 'Class, ethnicity and the Contemporary African Studies, 11.2 (1992), democratisation process in SA' .* Institute of Social and Economic Research, Southall, Roger (1981), 'Buthelezi, Inkatha and Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South the politics of compromise' African Affairs 80 Africa. (321) 1981; (1986),'A note on Inkatha Dubow, Saul (1993), 'Ethnic euphemisms and membership' African Affairs 85 (341) 1986; racial echoes', University of Sussex.* Southall (1993), 'Constructing a culture of Doornbos, M (1992), 'Linking the future to the consent: dilemmas in the making of a South past: ethnicity and pluralism' ROAPE 52, African democracy -- a review article', JAAS 1991, pp. 53-65. 3-4 (1993). Forman, Sadie & Odendaal, Andre (1992), A Trumpet from the Housetops: The Selected * Conference on 'Ethnicity, Identity and Writings of Lionel Forman, Zed Press/ Nationalism in South Africa: Comparative Mayibuye Centre, UWC. Perspectives', Rhodes University, Glazer N & Moynihan, D (eds) (1975), Ethnicity: Grahamstown, South Africa, 20-24 April Theory and Experience, Harvard UP. 1993. Review of African Political Economy No. 60:201 -213 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIX #6005

Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform

Simon Bromley & Ray Bush

This article examines the nature of structural adjustment in Egypt. It situates the policies of the International Financial Institutions within the context of Egypt's economic and political crisis and the efficacy of their policies of liberalisation in agriculture and for economic growth. The IFIs are promoting policies for rolling back the state but they are not addressing issues of 'good governance' and democratisation. It is tempting to conclude that the current international strategy for economic reform is a repeat of the failed policies twenty years ago of Anwar Sadat's infitah. Egypt is currently being hailed as an economic success story. Structural adjustment is working. Since 1991 Egypt has sharply reduced its budget and balance of payments deficits and inflation. has been brought under control. Prices in agriculture and industry have been liberalised and subsidies, especially in energy costs, have been cut. Oilier indications that the orthodox package of the international financial institutions (IFIs, specifically the IMF, IBRD and USAID) have been adhered to include the unification of the exchange rate and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange markets (World Bank 1994). Yet all is not entirely going according to plan and there are signs that the IFIs are getting impatient with Mubarak's regime. It is not clear for how much longer he will be able to draw on Egypt's 'strategic' position in arguing the need for a slow pace of economic adjustment. The state has not yet grasped the nettle of privatisation, bureaucrats are dragging their feet, fearful that their power base within the state is threatened, and there is little evidence that sustained and balanced economic growth will follow two years of enforced economic recession. There are other indicators of distress too. Not least among these has been the increased terrorist activity of the Gamoat al-lslamiyya (the Islamic group) and mounting poverty on a scale unprec- edented even by Egyptian standards (Korayem 1993). This article examines claims made by the IFIs and their apologists, about the character of Egypt's economic adjustment and the efficacy of the reform programme. We do this by assessing DFI documentation which has been supplemented, over two years, by a range of interviews with officials. To begin with we sketch the character of the economic crisis and the diagnosis offered by the IFIs. Briefly stated it is that Egypt's current economic crisis is the result of an overbig, inefficient and corrupt state unable to allocate resources efficiently. The IFI reform programme therefore requires a pruning down of the state which is expected to lead to more efficient private initiative and investment (USAID 1992a; World Bank 1992). We challenge that official line. We do so by examining the reform programme, giving particular emphasis to the leading sector of adjustment, agriculture. We argue that while significant reform was indeed 202 Review of African Political Economy necessary by 1990 to sustain the Egyptian political economy, there is little evidence to support the current public optimism of the IFIs regarding Egypt's future growth prospects

Egypt's Economic Crisis In the last forty years Egypt's economy has recurrently experienced balance of payments and budget deficits. Various regimes have been unable to generate either the levels or the quality of investment needed to move the economy away from a dependency upon rents in the form of foreign loans and grants, Canal fees, oil earnings, worker remittances and tourism. (Indeed, the initial statist control of the economy undertaken by Nasser was itself a response to a shortage of investment capital and foreign exchange, deriving from the reluctance of the Egyptian bourgeoisie to undertake domestic productive investment in sufficient quantity (see Cooper 1982)). The infltah or economic opening, launched by Sadat was no more successful than the Nasserist project in promoting growth and development. Infitah was a programme of liberalisation which began with optimism in the early 1970s yet ended with food riots in 1977 as Sadat tried to impose an IMF deal in Egypt. Soon after Nasser's death Sadat set about reversing three areas which he was particularly unhappy with. These were the close ties with the Soviet Union, what were seen as domestic socialist policies and the Israeli occupation of Sinai. In Sadat's own words, the 1960s had been 'nothing but years of defeat and pain... what we called the socialist experiment... was a complete failure ... (that) never resulted in a social revolution' (Al Ahram 1977). Sadat's strategy was to harness Arab capital, western technology and Egyptian resources by removing Nasser's statist shackles which were seen to have restricted growth and initiative. Yet during this initiative, fees from the Suez Canal, oil sales and remittances accounted for more than three-quarters of current account receipts and more than 40 cent of GDP by the mid-1980s, compared with just 6 per cent in 1974. Per capita income doubled during the oil boom years between 1974-85 from US$334 in 1974 to US$700 in 1984. The economy was therefore acutely vulnerable to external shocks, and in order to sustain high growth rates after the mid-1980s, Egypt accumulated massive balance of payments deficits and a huge foreign debt. The balance of payments deficit reached US$5.3bn in 1986, equal to 15 per cent of GDP, and the budget deficit reached US$8.8bn, some 23 per cent of GDP (Handoussa 1991a). By 1989 Egypt's debt service obligations were approximately 40 per cent of total foreign exchange revenues. The economy was increasingly characterised by stagflation and the state by its inability either to provide even minimal services of health and education or to maintain the basic infrastructure. Mubarak had negotiated a standby arrangement with the IMF in 1987 but it lasted just six months. Although by IMF standards it was not especially swingeing, Mubarak was nevertheless reluctant to implement cuts in service provision which had already been eroded by years of state neglect. Fearful of a repeat of the riots which accompanied Anwar Sadat's brush with the IFIs in 1977, Mubarak delayed a much needed adjustment until he was able to bask in the aftermath of 'Desert Storm'. US and Arab debt relief wrote-off an estimated US$13bn. In addition, the US cancelled US$6.7bn of military debt. Finally, the US sponsored a very favourable treatment of Egypt's debt by its Paris Club creditors, leading to a halving of its US$20.2bn owed to them. The latter agreement was staggered over three years, beginning in May 1991 with an agreement with the IMF, and it is scheduled to end in June 1994. Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform 203 Structural Adjustment Debt write off, the changed international conditions following the demise of existing socialism, and the growing awareness among the Egyptian bureaucracy that some reform was necessary if the barest of service provision was to be maintained, led to Egypt's signing of a Stand-by Agreement with the IMF in May 1991 and a Structural Adjustment Loan (SAL) with the World Bank in October the same year. The stated purpose of the. IMF deal was to 'restore macro-economic stability by reducing inflation, eliminating ceilings on interest rates, decontrolling the foreign exchange market and reducing the budget deficit'. The SAL required the Egyptian government to introduce major reforms in the financial and trade sectors and to 'undertake a major privatisation of the economy' (USAID 1992a, 1992b; World Bank 1992,1994). These reforms were seen as necessary by the IFIs to offset forty years of excessive state intervention in every aspect of economic life. Egypt's political economy, according to the IFIs, is characterised by at best state inefficiency and at worst state corruption which have provided disincentives to private investment and resulted in severe macro-economic imbalances: budget deficits of about 10 per cent of GDP on average and deficits on current account balance, on average 5 per cent GDP and inflation of between 15-20 per cent. (Lofgren 1993; Giugale 1993). According to the IFIs, it has been the scale of public sector enterprise (and with it the guarantee of employment), the subsidies for public services, energy and basic foodstuffs and the control of prices and trade which have together progressively enfeebled the Egyptian economy World Bank 1989; USAID 1992a).

This line of analysis is supported by what is now something of an academic consensus: the structural problems faced by Egypt derive from the growing inefficiencies of the state-led, protected pattern of development pursued since the revolution. This consensus argues that after 1967, and especially since 1973, the Nasserist model proved to be increasingly unworkable, and that the hesitant steps taken under the infitah have been too limited to produce meaningful reform (see, e.g., Holt and Roe 1993; Richards 1991,1993; and Waterbury 1992). Thus Alan Richards has characterised Egypt's difficulties in terms of three main problems: (1) the need to generate employment for a rapidly growing and young population; (2) the need to generate export earnings in order to pay for food imports, given the demographic and ecological constraints on agricultural production; and (3) the need to attract local savings into investment by securing property rights and controlling inflation. On this analysis, only a significant shift of resources and decision-making to the private sector can hope to meet these challenges in an increasingly interdependent world economy. In relation to the strategically crucial agricultural sector, Richards argues that food security for a country like Egypt should not be confused with food self-sufficiency (an unrealisable goal) and that a greater openness to the international economy is the only solution. This argument is also supported by Sami Baroudi's recent examination of Egypt's agricultural exports since 1973 (1993). Baroudi argues that freeing up the agricultural sector, both in term of pricing and in relation to government restrictions on exports, would resolve the difficulties in this area. This strategy should, he argues, have been put in place by the Egyptian state to promote a 'fairly large number of competitive private farmers and firms to dominate all aspects of production and export'. He makes little mention of already dominant monopolies and oligopolies in agriculture and the political transformation that is required for their power to be reduced. Baroudi invokes the efficacy of the market without examining how it currently is constructed. 204 Review of African Political Economy Great faith is placed in mechanisms of pricing to provide incentives for producers, and as we discuss in a moment, we do need to concede the importance of this on the margins in raising yields and changing cropping patterns. Yet Baroudi's account of Egypts agricultural export woes fails to address the key issue of political reforms needed to facilitate economic transformation and issues of power and inequality in the countryside which affect levels of productivity. For the Ms, reform must involve four main strands: (1) the share of the market within the Egyptian political economy must be radically increased by privatisation of public assets and by the removal of inefficient public regulation, such that competition is the judge of efficiency; (2) the rates of domestic savings and investment need to rise to finance the growth warranted by the level of development and the increasing population; (3) an increased and stable flow of foreign exchange is called for both to service existing debts and to continue to pay for necessary imports; and (4) the public sector must be able to provide efficiently essential services (health and education) and civilian infrastructure, while containing the budget deficit through better cost recovery and new taxes (USAID 1992b). While the IMF package has been directed towards controlling inflation and stabilising the foreign exchanges, the World Bank adjustment has focused on underpinning these macro-economic reforms with policies to stimulate domestic savings and investment, to balance the budget and to improve the foreign trading position. Price and foreign trade liberalisation have been important in this context. In addition, the combination of financial sector reform and privatisation is intended both to restore solvency to the banking system (and hence encourage a growth of financial intermediation) and to impose 'hard budget' constraints on all enterprises. Finally, the programme provides for a Social Fund to cushion the effects of adjustment. It should be apparent that this kind of analysis is predicated on a number of questionable assumptions. To begin with, it assumes that development is best secured by allowing the market to reveal the comparative advantage enjoyed by the country. Once prices are free and institutional barriers which impose significant transactions costs are removed, Egypt (or rather its private sector agents) will discover their comparative advantage through the market. Given the opportunity, the supply-side will respond appropriately. (In its cruder formulations, the argument suggests that while the state is predatory and rent-seeking, the private sector is not). Next, the impact of such adjustment on socio-economic inequalities, and hence on political stability, is minimised. And where such difficulties are noted, this then forms the basis of the case for rapid reform, since this allows the opposition to be isolated and shortens the period during which the costs of change are experienced. Any opposition to the reform has little time to consolidate, thereby minimising the possibility that the programme will be derailed. And finally, the key target of reform is taken to be the policies and activities of the Egyptian state, rather than either the structure of socio- economic power within Egypt or the relation of the Egyptian economy to the given international division of labour. Indeed, it is one of the central assumptions of the adjustment process that favourable improvements in domestic and international circumstances will follow a turn to the market.

There is widespread agreement that the Government of Egypt (GOE) has met many of the IFIs economic targets. It has certainly met most of the IMF requirements by stabilising the macro-economic environment. It has reduced the budget deficit from close to 20 per cent of GDP in 1991 to between 4 and. 5 per cent in 1993. Egypt's inflation rate has also fallen from an estimated 22 per cent in 1990 to 11 per cent in Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform 205 1993. Liberalisation of interest and exchange rates and the freeing of the foreign exchange market have resulted in substantial inflows of capital, improving the balance of payments position and accumulating foreign exchange reserves. It has drastically cut subsidies and capital expenditure and has introduced a general sales tax to raise revenue. It has also ended the guarantee of government employment. Impressive though these achievements are, they are all potentially reversible. In this context, it is as well to remember that the 1991-93 stabilisation has also been accompanied by a real decline in per capita GNP, following a recession that has been in place since the mid-1980s. Thus there are genuine fears in Egypt and Washington, as our interviews with officials indicate, that the economic stabilisation may prove reversible if the adjustment does not deliver significant growth in the near future. In the view of the US and the IFIs, the adjustment problems centre on the cautious pace of implementation, especially the failure to fully open the foreign trade sector and to privatise the dominant public sector. But given Egypt's (albeit declining) strategic role in the region, the US might well have to acquiesce in such a reversal if the adjustment programme is either not properly implemented or fails to deliver. This is a real possibility for there is some evidence that the IFIs seriously question the degree to which the need for reform has fully permeated the state bureaucracy, even at its highest levels.

Privatisation For a number of related reasons privatisation is at the centre of the adjustment process (World Bank 1992, USAID 1992a, USAID1991). To begin with, USAID and the World Bank argue that only a competitive private sector can adapt quickly and efficiently to price signals and thus steer Egypt's economy towards a specialisation in those areas where it has a comparative advantage. Next, as the IFIs argue, it is only if private property rights are secure, and are supported by a climate of price stability and transparent and rational regulation, that domestic savings will be channelled into domestic productive investment. Equally, only a regime of secure private property will provide the confidence needed to attract internationally mobile capital into the Egyptian economy on anything other than a speculative basis. And finally, and in the long run most importantly, only a large scale shift of resources and decision-making from the public to the private sector can guarantee the irreversibility of the IFIs reform programme. But is privatisation really the answer the IFIs publicly proclaim it to be? Where is the Egyptian bourgeoisie that is expected to take over the dominant role of the state? Is it really the case that the new private concerns will not be rent-seeking? And does privatisation, and the pursuit of comparative advantage, add up to a realistic strategy for growth in the Egyptian case? These questions can be addressed at two levels. On the one hand, there is the question of whether the privatisation programme will in fact be implemented and, if not, why not? And on the other, there is room to doubt that, even if successfully implemented, privatisation could deliver a feasible growth strategy for Egypt. Officials are attentive to the practicalities of implementation, but very largely ignore concrete questions about the overall cogency of the programmes. Thus, it is recognised that public officials are reluctant to sign their own redundancy notes and that bureaucrats and ppliticians are reluctant to loose their hold over public sector largesse. None the less, even when these points are noted, it is revealing that they are seen as practical obstacles, rather than arguments for thorough-going political reform. 206 Review of African Political Economy How, then, is privatisation to be accomplished. Estimates vary, but there is perhaps US$55bn or US$6bn (lower estimates are 40bn, upper ones 80bn) of offshore Egyptian capital (cf, a nominal GDP of US$43bn in 1993). This could, of course, easily fund the complete sale of all public sector enterprises. But, as yet, there is little evidence that either Egyptian investors, or indeed foreign investors, are coming forward to take over the inefficient and over-staffed public sector enterprises. The Egyptian stock market is very underdeveloped. Equally, the GOE has persistently stalled in preparing public sector companies for privatisation (after all, Mubarak has said that no one need loose their job in the adjustment process), despite considerable assistance for the IFIs to do so. One US economic advisor thought it incredible that towards the end of the adjustment programme the GOE had still not prepared 20 companies ready for privatisation. This impatience was shared by the World Bank mission to Egypt in early 1994.

However, even if significant sectors pass into the private sector, what is to prevent private rent-seeking. In the case of Egypt, like many others, the state bourgeoisie is simultaneously a major holder of 'private' assets. Many senior officials and politicians are directly or indirectly large landowners and controllers of other economic assets. Thus it is certainly possible that privatisation will legitimate private rent-seeking, as erstwhile bureaucrats use their residual influence to extract concessions from the state. On this issue, IFI officials interviewed either seemed to be unaware of this possibility or, where they recognised it, argued that little could be done about it and that, in the long-run, it wouldn't matter too much. Finally, the moving of much activity to the private sector cannot guarantee a growth strategy that will promote sustained development in Egypt. IFI thinking and its academic supporters (Richards 1993; Baroudi 1993) insist that the market will signal to Egyptian producers where their comparative advantage lies. Maybe so. But contrary to the bland assurances from officials about the market-led nature of growth in the Asian NICs, there has been no example of successful development in the history of late-industrialising capitalism that did not involve significant levels of state support for particular sectors, selective protection of parts of the economy, targeted investment and the (intended or unintended) getting of relative prices wrong. In this context, what is striking in both the official and the unofficial discourse of the IFIs is the undifferentiated and simplistic notion of the 'market' that is employed to legitimate current policy. It is the market of the neo-classical textbooks bereft of social actors which shape it and which is reified as the efficient allocator of resources by the IFIs to contrast with the inefficiencies of the state. It is an ahistorical abstract market which has meaning for only the officers of international agencies as the vehicle to railroad through policies of liberalisation which will further empower the strong and weaken the poor. Specific attempts by the IFIs in the literature or in interview after interview, to enumerate the potential comparative advantage of Egypt in the international division of labour, either focus on vague generalities about being low-waged and at the cross- roads of Africa, Asia and Europe, or point to sectors where there is already intense competition (and arguably more competitive producers), or identify sectors whose employment prospects are very limited. There is simply no official discussion of a restructured role for the Egyptian state, outside of basic welfare and civilian infrastructure. It should also be said that there appears to be an absence from among the divided Egyptian left, except for only a handful of individuals, on what a meaningful alternative scenario is to confront the current neo-liberal orthodoxy. Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform 207 Agricultural Reform Agriculture, which now accounts for about 20 per cent of GDP and total exports and 36 per cent of employment (World Bank 1992), has been at the leading edge of Egypt's economic reform programme. The sector also demonstrates the extent to which at least one section of the state bureaucracy has largely been won over to the reform process. Under the rubric of a shift to the market and a focus on comparative advantage, the IFIs are seeking to push Egyptian agriculture towards a precarious and vulnerable export oriented strategy of high-value, low nutrition crops aimed at the European market. Despite some of the highest yields in the world, a significant constraint on agricultural productivity has been set by institutional and pricing strategies which aimed to tax the fellah (peasantry) and to divert surpluses to the urban sector. Nasser instigated a series of reforms in the 1950s and 1960s which shaped the subsequent trajectory of rural development. In trying to break the political power of Egypt's pasha class of largely urban, absentee landlords and to promote a degree of rural redistribution, the state promoted a series of land reforms. These placed a ceiling on the size of land ownership at 100 feddan per family, and the confiscated land was reallocated in amounts of 2-5 feddans. While the pashas had ways of frustrating this legislation, and the overall effect was probably to strengthen a class of middle peasants — those owning 11-50 feddan — the reforms did increase the land holdings of those with 5 feddan and less, and they also provided a major institutional and legal framework of security for land holders and tenants. After the reforms, those owning 5 feddan and less, which accounted for 95 per cent of all owners, controlled 53 per cent of the cultivated area compared with 35 per cent before 1952. Moreover, the system of rural , which the state established to market inputs and production, also provided a legal structure that for the first time gave security of tenure to Egypt's rural poor (Abdel-Fadel 1975; Abdelhakim 1987; and Waterbury 1984). Egypt's rural producers have been required to deliver portions of their crops to state marketing organisations at artificially low prices. The intention has been to transfer agricultural surpluses to the state to facilitate industrialisation and to provide cheap food for a rapidly urbanising workforce. The ratio of delivery to the state depended on the crop: all the production of cotton, sugar cane, peanuts, sesame and soybeans was required and one and a half tons of rice per feddan went to the state. The penalty for non-delivery was a system of fines. Although rural producers received subsidised inputs (seed, fertilisers and pesticides), given the low procurement prices, financial returns proved to be a major disincentive to producers and served to encourage smuggling, recourse to the black market and the use of cheap inputs to produce non-strategic foodstuffs.

Table 1 Distribution of Land Ownership

Ownership Per cent of Per cent of area size landowners area owned

Less than 5 feddan 95.5 53.9 5-10 feddan 2.4 10.5 10-20 feddan 1.2 10.2 20-50 feddan 0.7 11.5 50-100 feddan 0.2 7.4 more than 100 feddan 0.1 6.5

Note: 1 feddan = 1.038 acres = 4,201 sq metres Source: CAPMAS: Statistical Yearbook, 1985 data 208 Review of African Political Economy Between 1970 and 1990 there was a pronounced substitution of locally produced foodstuffs by imports. Total exports, mainly cotton, rice, fruit and vegetables, were about US$434mn in 1990, just 20 per cent of the value of food imports (USAID 1992d). Egypt now imports roughly 50 per cent of its food needs and it is dependent on the for more than half of its wheat and wheat flour. Half of the import bill is for four commodities: wheat, corn, vegetable oil and red meat. A major reason why these levels of imports have become a serious policy problem is that as the demand for imports increased, so the export earnings to pay for them have fallen (Bush 1994; Mitchell 1991). This situation was aggravated by the neglect of agricultural investment during the oil led boom of the 1970s and the early 1980s and in the deficit financed growth which followed. Agriculture's share of public investment fell from 7.9 per cent during the period 1983/87 to 6.9 per cent during 1988/92. (The intention is for this figure to rise to 15.8 per cent in the period 1993/97 (Okonjo-Iweala 1992). The rate of growth in agriculture has lagged behind that for the economy as a whole by as much as 4 per cent.

What is the strategy of reform for agriculture? There are obvious physical constraints on agricultural production, not least among these is that less than 4 per cent of Egypt's land area is cultivated — giving a tiny 0.13 feddan per head for its nearly 60 million people. This is one of the smallest proportions by international comparison. In addition, Egypt has only the Nile River as its major single source of water supply. But these natural limits are not the entire story of Egyptian agriculture, since the per capita level of holdings hide enormous inequalities in access to land. The reform programme aims to address both the institutional and price distortions noted above and the 'natural' limits. It began soon after Yussuf Wally became Minister of Agriculture in the early 1980s. He has presided over Egypt's increased dependency upon food imports and the decline of the country's cotton industry. He has also been the main architect behind liberalization in the countryside. Yussuf Wally has been strongly supported in this by USAID. (Between 1974 and 1992 US economic assistance to Egypt has totalled US$18bn, and from an annual total of about US$lbn USAID administers some US$815mn). USAID is one of the most aggressive international agencies promoting radical schemes of privatisation and price liberalisation. The centrepiece of its strategy for Egypt is to promote policy reform 'emphasizing structural adjustment and sectoral reform measures that support movement towards a freemarket economy led by the private sector' (USAID 1992c). Because Egyptian agriculture plays a pivotal role in the economy as a whole, USAID argue that reforms in this sector can promote a more general shift towards privatisation and free markets. USAID is also a vigorous proponent of the view that Egyptian agriculture must capitalise on its comparative advantage. This entails a shift towards the production of high-value, low nutrition foodstuffs for the European market — strawberries, fine green beans, peppers and tomatoes, as well as grapes, peaches and other citrus crops. USAID estimates that increases in exports of these kinds of crops could yield as much as US$100-150mn a year, up to 1996 (USAID 1992d).

There is a lot of similarity between USAID's strategy for agricultural modernisation and that proposed by the World Bank. It is expressed well by the World Bank chief of agricultural operations who explained the decline in the growth rate of Egyptian agriculture by reference to 'extensive Government intervention, the implicit taxation of the sector, and the low productivity of the reclaimed lands' (Okonjo-Iweala 1992). The Bank's declared agricultural strategy for the 1990s is to 'increase agricultural productivity per unit of land and water' through greater efficiency, by liberalisation Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform 209 and privatisation, and, whenever possible, by the use of cost recovery in irrigation (World Bank 1992). In sum, the Bank and USAID recognise at least four main constraints on agricultural growth: the legacy of inappropriate pricing policies; a anti- competitive statist institutional framework; the need for technological innovation; and the management of land and water resources. Particularly since the reforms of 1986, the state has gradually reduced its insistence on the compulsory delivery and fixed pricing of strategic crops. Both farmgate prices and input prices have been liberalised, supported by USAID. Food subsidies have also been reduced. Institutionally, the state's major rural actor, The Principal Bank for Development and Agricultural Credit (PBDAC), has been reformed in the direction of an agricultural credit bank. There has also been increased provision for sales of state land, especially in the newly reclaimed areas. The GOE has also implemented a major reform of the land tenancy system which had pegged land prices and had provided the peasantry with legal safeguards from eviction. The new law passed in 1992 has increased rents from 7 times the land tax (revised every ten years and on average £E20 per feddari) to 22 times the tax. The legislation also promises a complete free market in land after 1996 when owners will be able to legally break previous tenancy agreements. For the IFIs and the GOE, it is hoped that the combination of price and institutional reform will address the high level of post harvest losses due to poor processing and marketing (estimates of such losses are as high as 20 per cent), as well as encouraging the development of agricultural research and extension services. The IFIs and the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation assume that the private sector will take up that state's role in providing inputs and in marketing. It is further hoped that the private sector will play a larger role in recovering new lands. This is especially important given the existing constraints on land and water. Egypt has been loosing about 30,000 acres a year to urbanisation (often very fertile areas), offset by a total of 600,000 acres reclaimed at high cost since 1982. Finally for the IFIs, it is hoped that the constraints on water availability can be eased by encouraging greater efficiency in use by techniques of cost-recovery. Because the agricultural reforms began in 1986 it is possible to begin to see what the success of the reform programme has been. For the GOE, there are two main sets of indicators: changes in cropping patterns and productivity per feddan and total productionand farmgate prices. In all of these areas it is undeniable that there have been major advances. Egypt's cultivated area increased from 6.2 million feddans in 1981 to 7.6 rm\\ion.feddans in 1993. Total production of the main strategic food crops.— wheat, maize and rice — has also increased. The total production of cereals increased from 8 million tons in 1981 to 15 million tons in 1992 (GOE, Ministry of Agriculture 1993). Between 1985 and 1992, the area cultivated with wheat, barley, broad beans, winter onions and vegetable crops also increased significantly. There was also an increase in the productivity 'per feddan for the main agricultural crops during 1985 and 1992, except for barley, broad beans, onions and soybeans. Increases in rice, wheat, and maize led to a reduction in imports and were the result, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, of improved technology and seed varieties (Nassar 1993). Also according to the Ministry, the 'remarkable progress in implementing a macro- economic reform program has been reflected in the reduction of food subsidy from about 17 per cent of total budget public expenditure in the mid-1980s to about 2 per cent in 1990'. 210 Review of African Political Economy Thus it is clear that Egyptian agricultural performance has benefited from a relaxation of farm controls on prices and state intervention in marketing and input provision. There are nevertheless three major problems with the reform programme. To begin with there are the negative effects of the combination of price reform and the withdrawal of the state's role in marketing. Because the rise in prices in the final markets have not been passed on to all the rural producers (because of oligopolistic private traders), for some the rise in input costs has resulted in a decline of earnings. Next, while the rises in farmgate prices have resulted in productivity improvements, many crops are at or near the technological frontier given the existing mix of land and labour. Future increases will require a shift in the rural relations of production, and reproduction, in order to shift the production function. The preferred course of especially USAID, and also for the World Bank, is for to favour large, efficient commercial farmers. This can only be at the expense of the majority of rural producers, the poor fellah. And finally, in addition to being dependent on increased rural inequality, the new strategy depends on the stability of the export markets Egypt is seeking to enter. The window of opportunity here may well be limited, as there are already more advanced producers in the market — Israel, and, perhaps, Jordan and Palestine. USAID officials are clear that rural class differentiation will increase under the new framework.

Conclusions What, then, are the prospects for successful reform in Egypt? We have seen that the overall package is characterised by a number of symptomatic simplifications and silences in the discourse of reform. These vary from a general optimism about the supply side, combined with a sanguine assessment of rising inequality, to a failure to address the need for a strategy for growth. Underpinning all of these problems, both in their general formulation and in their particular examples, is a refusal to contemplate a serious political reform of Egypt's political economy. Neither the' structure of socio- economic power within Egypt, nor the character of political power at the level of the state, are directly addressed. Of course, the implementation of the reform programme would have major consequences for both of these (roughly, a further concentration of wealth and income and a transfer of the elite's power into a less overtly political form), but the much trumpeted need for 'transparency' and 'accountability' are strictly for the economy, not for the political sphere. For it is striking that whether one considers the problems of privatisation and of a potentially rent-seeking private sector, or one looks to the need to empower the rural and urban poor, or one asks why a strategy for growth is not even being discussed, it is abundantly clear that a strategy of democratisation, as distinct from economic liberalisation, is not on the IFIs or the United States' agenda. One US official noted that while in the long-run it was hoped that economic liberalisation would bring political change, neither the US nor its interlocutors in the Egyptian financial elite were directly pushing for political reform. Yet USAID in Cairo has a new senior officer with a brief relating to governance and democratisation and it is part of a bigger Washington based USAID programme which has put conditionalities between good governance and the continuation of US foreign assistance. As we have recently seen however, in the case of Washington's delinking of human rights abuses and economic relations with the Peoples Republic of , the extent of political conditionality and the leverage that the US can muster, depends upon a myriad of issues relating to the Opportunism of the US and the strategic rent of the country concerned rather than any high principle of democracy, transparency and empowerment. Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform 211 In the case of Egypt, the 'realistic' debate is held to be about the pace and precise character of the economic reform programme; the suggestion that a distinct alternative might even be possible is arrogantly discounted. (The replacement of Abdel Waheb as Minister of Industry in the October 1993 reshuffle has been seen as a signal that those within the GOE calling for a more interventionist role are losing out to calls for faster privatisation and small scale enterprise development.) The possibility that, under a properly liberalised and democratised political system, political forces in Egypt might develop alternative frameworks, involving a restructured but still active industrial role for the state, is (deliberately or not) pre- empted by the collusion of the IFIs and the United States with the incumbent leadership in Cairo. At present, the real 'dialogue' in Egypt is between these latter forces, not between the GOE and its population. It is this disposition of forces and policy which, not surprisingly, raises suspicions that the West's agenda is more concerned with breaking the state-led model of development and opening the economy to foreign penetration than it is with fostering the long-term prospects for growth.

The US is especially well positioned to be aware of economic opportunities in Egypt. The 600 member American Chamber of Commerce is the largest US business interest group in the middle east. US investment in Egypt is estimated at US$lbn, most of it in petroleum but also manufacturing and services. Egypt is currently the US's twenty- seventh largest market: US exports to Egypt in 1993 were valued at US$2.9bn—30 per cent of the Egyptian market — and the US has 200 firms with offices in Cairo and a further 1,800 are represented through agents and distributors (US Embassy 1994). Battles around the issues of economic opening, investment, democratisation and the role of the state will be fought out on the terrain of 'growth'. And the conflict, if it emerges openly at all, is most likely between sections of the state bureaucracy clinging to office and the IFIs pushing for streamlining government. Opportunities for other sources of opposition are limited. The state remains repressive. It is difficult for labour to organise outside state imposed structures and it is illegal to establish political organisations and civic associations without state permission. Rural discontent exists although it has little opportunity to express itself and was seemingly not much in evidence even following the recent increase in the land tax. Even so, there has been a mushrooming, despite the legal obstacles put in their way, of non-governmental organisations and research institutes in Cairo which express the important need for relaxation with regard to intellectual debate and an agenda for democratisation. One significant illustration of this is the Ibn Khaldoun Centre for Development Studies. This Centre has overcome legal barriers to register as a limited liability firm. Amongst other things it produces a monthly magazine in Arabic and English to champion the importance of Civil Society in the transition towards greater democratisation. On the surface, this kind of initiative might do no more than provide another channel for Cairo's 'chattering classes' to express discontent with established formal politics — merely adding to Egypt's reputation as 'a democracy by newspapers'. Yet it also performs another function, one reflected recently when Ibn Khaldoun were forced to move the venue for a major international conference on the UN Declaration on Rights of Minorities and Peoples of the Arab World and Middle East. It was moved from Cairo to Cyprus for fear of disruption after Mohamed Hassanein Heikal, author and editor of Al Ahram for 20 years until 1974, started an outcry in the press against the treatment in the conference programme of the Copts as a minority in Egyptian society. This the Copts clearly are for they represent no more than 10 per cent of the 212 Review of African Political Economy Egyptian population. Heikal was afraid that the perception that the Copts were not an integral part of Egyptian society was divisive; yet many observers have noted how the Copts have become marginalised in employment, opportunities for religious worship and in many cases have been subjected to terrorist attacks by Muslim zealots. Heikal's intervention, and that by the Islamicist Adel Hussain against the inclusion of the case of southern Sudan, generated enormous debate in Egypt (Civil Society, May, 1994). It was a debate about how different groups in society are treated and why, about tolerance and mutual understanding and the ability of sections within Egyptian society to promote cleavage along confessional lines, and it was a debate about the relations between state and society: it touched the very heart of the debate about democracy and accountability — although it was not originally couched in those terms. In this case, Ibn Khaldoun provided a catalyst for national debate whereas before such issues, if treated at all, were done so much more discreetly. It is also possible, although not immediately probable, that fundamental economic and social tensions in Egypt might accelerate an agenda for political change. Unemployment in Egypt is now no less than 20 per cent, and the economy is characterised by very high levels of underemployment — clearly visible to any visitor to Cairo. The Social Fund, geared to employment generation rather than income transfers, is clearly inadequate to deal with these pressures. Estimates suggest that the economy needs to generate some 500,000 jobs per year to stand still, and this will require growth rates some two to three times higher than those which have been achieved in recent years. Where can this come from? One suggestion, critically reviewed above, is that Egypt should shift its agriculture towards the export of high- value, low-nutrition crops, and try to promote textile exports on the basis of its high quality cotton. A second option is to take advantage of Egypt's low-cost labour. But low-cost labour is widely available across the developing world and, despite its high number of graduates, Egypt cannot any time soon hope to match the education levels of much of Asia or the former Eastern bloc. Regionally, the most that Egypt may have are some comparative advantages in such areas as pharmaceuticals, information services like computer software and cinema and, possibly, banking. Banking faces severe competition from the Gulf and probably also from an increasingly stable Lebanon. In any case, while these may generate foreign exchange, none of these sectors are very significant employers of labour. It is tempting to conclude that history is repeating itself in Egypt. There are many parallels between the themes of Sadat's infitah and the current push of the EFIs to liberalise the Egyptian political economy. Although the earlier liberalisation began after the 1967 War, it was accelerated following Sadat's October paper in 1974 (Sadat 1974). As we noted above, the infitah began with optimism but led to a fourfold increase in imports, especially in food, without a corresponding level of domestic production and exports. Its principal effect, aside from an oil-financed boom in infrastructure and construction, was to provide the opportunity for speculative investment and the consolidation of Cairo as a place for Gulf Arabs to spend the summer. Equally, the promises of the IFIs in the 1990s regarding the much more dramatic liberalisation of investment and trade are similar to those made by Sadat. But, as Gouda Abdel Khalek had already understood in the 1970s, limited growth may occur with infitah but it was unlikely to promote sustained and balanced development (1979). Adjustment in Egypt? The Political Economy of Reform 213 The difference this time around is that the weight of external forces, the IFIs and the United States, in the reform process is much greater, and the degree of policy surveillance is much more detailed and intrusive. The stakes are also much higher. Given the scope of the reform programme, its failure to deliver high and sustained levels of growth, and hence to cut into unemployment and to raise living standards, might produce levels of conflict and instability that more resemble recent events in Algeria than the traditional picture of Egypt as a bulwark of regional stability. Ray Bush and Simon Bromley are in the Department of Politics, University of Leeds, UK.

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Debate

Why Structural Adjustment the Bush regime as it bombed its - and Britain's - former Iraqi clients into sub- is Necessary and Why It mission. Doesn't Work The origins of 'structural adjustment' Gavin Williams programmes go back well before this latter-day enthusiasm for 'free enter- prise', 'free trade' and 'the market Whence Structural Adjustment? economy', let alone for a new 'demo- During the 1980s, most of the countries in cratic' dispensation. Indeed, in some cases Latin America, Eastern Europe and Af- the attempts to carry through programmes rica, with different forms of governments of structural adjustment have engen- professing very different ideologies, found dered opposition to dictatorial regimes themselves trapped by levels of debt to and led to their relinquishing power. international public and commercial banks which were far beyond their capac- To take the critical example of Poland, ity to finance. Consequently, they came to attempts to reform the price structure in depend on IMF and World Bank ap- the face of international debt led to the proval to persuade commercial banks to workers insisting on their right to cheap reschedule -their debts and maintain lines meat, and the formation of Solidarnosc. of commercial credit. Across several con- The military government could suppress tinents, state economic policies required political opposition but it could not the external approval of the international resolve the fiscal crisis of the Polish state receivers, the IMF and the World Bank. or the crisis of industrial production. Hence the invitation of the Jaruzelski The inability of governments to secure regime to the opposition to form an their fiscal bases and to satisfy the multi- elected dyarchy, one key moment in the plicity of demands of their various con- ultimate collapse of communist authority stituents undermined their legitimacy in Poland and elsewhere in eastern and and led to the emergence of popular central Europe. Whereas foreign bankers movements demanding democratic re- had previously looked to authoritarian forms, and encouraged some regimes to regimes to enforce fiscal discipline and embark in haste on strategies to transfer bring the workers under control, democ- power to elected successors. The collapse ratisation was now widely seen as neces- of communist power discredited commu- sary to legitimate the economic sacrifices nist one-party regimes and their imitators which were to be demanded of people in in Africa. They also reduced the inclina- the name of economic reform. tions of the western powers to continue their military, political and financial sup- In 1975 Robert McNamara told the board port for authoritarian, and sometimes of governors of the World Bank that bankrupt, anti-communist regimes in Af- commercial bankers (he had his friend rica and Latin America. The twin slogans David Rockefeller of Chase Manhattan of 'democracy' and 'the market economy' Bank in mind) wished to see a shift in the provided an ideological flag for the short- balance of international lending from the lived 'New World Order' proclaimed by public to the private sector. Chase had Debate: Why Structural Adjustment is Necessary and Why It Doesn't Work 215

burned itself with loans to Zaire and problems of funding debt relief to indi- Zambia during the copper boom of the gent governments. They also created an early 1970s and was now looking to opening for the Bank and the IMF to take public lenders to help them recover their a far more directive approach to the debts. The World Bank did not, however, economic policies of its client regimes. check the appetite of governments for loans on commercial terms, without the constraints imposed by the IMF and the Origins of the Debt Crisis World Bank, nor the willingness of com- Wherein lay the origins of the pervasive mercial banks to go on lending money to debt crises confronting military dictator- 'sovereign' debtors who were blatantly ships in Latin America, one-party re- unable to meet their commitments. The gimes in Africa and communist scissors of an international recession and governments in eastern Europe? These rising real interest rates did the rest. debts are not only the result of fiscal irresponsibility and political corruption, McNamara did address a critical hiatus though these certainly exacerbated gov- in the international financial arrange- ernment debts and, in some cases, gener- ments established at Bretton Woods. The ated holdings of foreign assets by political IMF was set up to provide short-term rulers and their associates which matched loans to governments faced with balance their government's unrequited debts. The of payments problems to allow them to problems of international debt are the restructure their economies without re- necessary consequence of the dominant sorting to the protectionist trade policies strategies of industrialisation and devel- and recurrent devaluations which had opment in Latin America and Africa in marked the depression of the 1930s. The the post-war period, strategies which World Bank, the International Bank for were emulated - indeed epitomised - by Reconstruction and Development, had the policies of the Gierek regime in found a niche for itself in providing long- Poland in the 1970s. term development loans, mainly to pay for transport, telecommunications and Following the advice of nationalist and irrigation projects - later for agricultural social democratic economists, in Poland development projects - to the countries of governments sought to change the struc- Latin America, Asia and Africa. Neither tures of their economies from depend- the IMF nor the World Bank was empow- ence on primary exports - minerals, ered to provide long-term loans to coun- crops and livestock - to pay for the tries facing chronic balance of payments imports of industrial goods, by investing problems and rising international debts. the earnings from primary exports in the The World Bank had rejected the earlier developments of local industries. The proposals of the Pearson Report to allow division of responsibilities between state programme loans, untied to the costs of corporations and private firms, and be- specific projects. tween local and foreign capital, varied from country to country. The key ele- This was the problem which the Brandt ments were protective tariffs to encour- Report was set up to address. Its contro- age local industries and persuade foreign versial proposal for a new World Devel- capital to invest directly in production to opment Fund to provide long-term maintain or gain access to local markets; 'programme' loans to governments made public funding of investments in it easier for McNamara to convince the infrastructural projects and in basic goods governors of the World Bank to allow the industries, often funded by foreign loans; Bank to offer 'structural adjustment' loans and most critically, the use of the foreign instead. Brandt, and structural adjust- exchange earnings of agriculture and ment loans, were set up to resolve the mining to pay the import costs of the 216 Review of African Political Economy industrial sector. To these were to be dollars, would carry flexible interest rates added the rising costs of meeting the set in relation to the London inter-bank widening demand for public spending on rates. Governments, whatever their as- education, health and other services. sets and liquidity, were 'sovereign debt- ors', unable to go bankrupt. Governments As long as local industries tended to of developed countries guaranteed ex- import more machinery, raw materials, port credits so that they too became and skills than they generated from responsible for commercial debts. Conse- export earnings, they continued to de- quently, the commercial banks and gov- pend on agriculture or mining to pay for ernment agencies supplied large amounts their imported inputs. Typically, in Latin of short- and medium-term credit to America, Africa, and India - though not governments who had no evident way of in east Asia, the new industries produced paying for them, especially when real goods for protected national markets interest rates rose and the price of pri- rather than competing in international mary exports fell in the 1980s. markets. Ironically, then, the more rapid the growth of the industrial sector, the greater the strain on the balance of Some African Examples payments say why this follows. In this Export-led Growth: In some African way, policies of import-substituting in- countries, notably Kenya and Cote dustrialisation, far from reducing de- d'lvoire, the expansion of agricultural pendence on the export of primary exports in the decades following inde- products, made governments ever more pendence provided a market for an ex- dependent on rising agricultural or min- panding industrial sector. It also funded eral exports. This in turn made them ever the foreign exchange costs of rising im- more vulnerable to the volatility of ex- port demand generated, directly and port earnings and, arguably, a tendency indirectly, by the industrial sector and by for the terms of trade to turn against ambitious public spending on education, primary producers in the long term, the roads and various construction and de- very problems which had justified the velopment projects. In Kenya this was strategy of import-substituting industri- made possible by lifting the colonial alisation in the first place. prohibitions on smallholder cultivation of high-value crops, notably coffee and These problems of enhanced export de- tea. In Cote d'lvoire, the availability of pendence are common to all countries uncultivated forest land in Cote d'lvoire following strategies of 'import-substitut- and migrant labour from Burkina Faso ing' industrialisation, though their ca- (previously Haut Volta), assisted by the pacities to deal with these problems, and low prices and falling production of the policies they have adopted in re- cocoa in, neighbouring Ghana, allowed sponse to them vary considerably from Cote d'lvoire to expand cocoa production one case to another. After the oil price rise and displace Ghana and Nigeria as the of 1973, international commercial banks world's leading producer. Further, much found themselves with large sums of Ghanaian cocoa crossed its land borders money in hand, and limited opportuni- to be sold for CFA francs and appear in ties to invest them. Third world govern- the cocoa export statistics of Cote d'lvoire ments needed cash to pay the rising and Togo. In Kenya the shilling enhanced import costs of their development strate- its value relative to the currencies of its gies and to meet .their increased bills for immediate neighbours and, until recently, oil imports. Commercial banks offered maintained a stable and fairly realistic money without the strings imposed by exchange rate. The Bank of France main- the international financial institutions - tained the franc exchange rate of the CFA but at a price: loans, denominated in franc, which allowed Cote d'lvoire, and Debate: Why Structural Adjustment is Necessary and Why It Doesn't Work 217 other countries in the franc zone, access combined with claims from the majority to a convertible currency. of the population for access to better education, more housing and expanding It was not possible to sustain the expan- employment opportunities. The exam- sion of agricultural exports indefinitely. ples of Kenya, Cote d'lvoire and South International demand for coffee, tea and Africa demonstrate the scope for - and cocoa is limited, and vulnerable to reces- the limitations of - strategies of industrial sion in the developed country markets growth, financed by primary exports. for which there is considerable competi- tion from established producers and new Export-led Decline: The most successful entrants. New opportunities could be tropical African economies in the colo- found for exports of tropical fruits and nial period were those, such as Ghana fine vegetables, but these too are con- and Uganda, in which the expansion of strained by increasing competition for agricultural exports by peasant produc- limited markets. The very success of their ers had brought prosperity to producers export sectors allowed countries like and revenues to the state. British colonial Kenya and Cote d'lvoire to borrow money governments used the monopoly powers abroad from commercial banks to cover of state marketing boards, during and their balance of payments deficits. This after the second world war, to buy these left them exposed to the high rates of crops cheap and sell them dear on the interest on their debts as these accumu- world market. In this way, they exacted lated. In Kenya, fiscal profligacy and from their colonial subjects a tribute of high-level corruption have lead to suc- net dollar earnings as a contribution to cessive devaluations of the shilling. The post-war British reconstruction and as a countries of the CFA franc zone have yet support for the pound sterling. The Ko- to confront the consequences, in rising rean war boom allowed governments to import and therefore living costs, of improve prices to producers while taking devaluation. an ever larger share of the value of exports or themselves. South Africa has a far longer history, and a far higher level, of industrialisation This exploitation of peasant producers than Kenya or Cote d'lvoire. Mining, was justified by arguments for stabilis- agriculture and industry all expanded on ing prices and regulating markets. Sub- the basis of coercive labour policies. sequently, the marketing board South Africa, too, relied on primary surpluses were recommended as a commodity exports, primarily gold, dia- source of finance for spending on infra- monds and other minerals, to fund the structure and investment in industry. foreign exchange costs of its industrial When African politicians inherited the growth, including its arms sector, as well accumulated funds of the commodity as its foreign wars. Consequently, rapid marketing boards, they were used to industrial growth added to rather than fund public development programmes, relieved its balance of payments prob- private investments and party political lems and its vulnerability to the volatile, activities. Politics became a contest and recently stagnating, markets for most among political - and military - lead- of its exports. This was exacerbated in ers to control the allocation of public 1985 by its inability to gain access to new revenues to themselves, their clients credit from international banks to meet and their regional and institutional the debts contracted to commercial banks constituencies. Rising claims on gov- in the previous decade. The 'new South ernment revenues rapidly outran the Africa' inherits a legacy of a sharply declining earnings of the marketing devalued currency, high inflation, bloated boards. Falling prices were passed, as bureaucracy and international debts - far as possible, to producers, thus 225 Review of African Political Economy discouraging production for official out the rural areas by means of a policy of markets and new planting of tree crops. 'decentralisation'. The ideology of ujamaa (familyhood) justified ordering people to In Ghana socialist, liberal, and several planned villages and abolishing market- military governments all used the cocoa ing cooperatives in favour of a hierarchy marketing boards as sources of revenue of state marketing and processing bodies. and instruments of patronage and pre- Tanzania briefly became Africa's most sided over the decline of export produc- favoured recipient of externally-funded tion. In Nigeria, mineral oil offered an development projects. However, state alternative source of state revenue to marketing and pricing policies discour- export crops. Government pricing and aged farmers from producing crops for exchange rate policies saw a dramatic official markets. Government had to buy decline in the volume of agricultural crops from areas with high transport exports. In the cases of groundnuts and costs and turn to imports to meet its palm oil - for both of which crops in commitment to provide maize meal to Nigeria was the world's largest producer urban consumers. The expansion of in the early 1960s - exports fell to zero in schools and health centres began to be the 1970s. Mineral oils exports only undermined by lack of money to pay for offered a temporary respite. Nigeria be- equipment, drugs and adequate salaries. came, in effect, a monocrop export State investments were focused on indus- economy, vulnerable to the limited inter- tries and large farms with operated with national market and volatile prices for high import costs which could not be oil; politics turned on the capacity to sustained. The strategy of 'socialism and appropriate, distribute and spend state self reliance' produced bureaucracy and oil revenues. In the long-term, the colo- dependence. nial marketing boards for export crops, and the political battles to control them The Tanzanian state was more muted in made a major contribution to the destruc- its ideological stance and policies than tive combination of political instability more radical nationalist regimes, such as and declining exports which have Guinee, Guine-Bissau, Mozambique, or wreaked various sorts of havoc on the Ethiopia, which claimed 'scientific social- peoples of Uganda, Nigeria, Ghana and ist' or 'marxist-leninist' credentials. The Sierra Leone. Mozambican government repeated many of the damaging policies previously im- posed in Tanzania. Even if allowance is Socialist Alternatives made for the effects of external interven- Capitalist development strategies in Af- tion and civil war, the policies of these rica appeared to deepen dependence on more radical regimes were generally foreign markets and foreign capital, and more repressive and economically even to exacerbate inequalities. Socialist poli- more disastrous than Tanzania's. Their cies seemed to offer an alternative path of failures were far exceeded on both counts development. They justified direct con- by the ravages of several regimes with no trol by party leaders and state officials of pretentions to socialism, some of which, a large share of exports and imports, notably (Zaire), continued to be sustained banks and credit, food marketing, and by military and financial support from industrial production. The state would western governments and international take responsibility for directing develop- financial institutions. They left them just ment, and protect its subjects from ex- as bankrupt and, by the late 1980s, ploitation by foreign capital and local needed to turn to the Western powers middlemen. In Tanzania, under Nyerere, and international financial institutions to the ruling party extended central bureau- for economic support. cratic direction of the economy through- Debate: Why Structural Adjustment is Necessary and Why It Doesn't Work 219

import scarce consumer goods rather Managing the Crisis than to pay for the industrial inputs for As we have seen, there were significant which it was allocated. Lacking access to differences in the course of economic necessary inputs, factories produced be- development in different countries. It is, low their capacity and raised unit costs nevertheless, possible to identify certain further. Official purchases of staple foods general directions of policy which were and export crops fell. Crops and curren- adopted to some degree in most states in cies were smuggled out of countries, and Africa - and in several countries else- industrial goods into them (sometimes where. The responsibilities assumed by through the territories, and to the benefits the 'development state' encouraged an of their neighbours). The prices consum- expansion of the range and extent of ers had to pay for goods inflated sharply. government activities, and state regula- The purchasing power of wages and tion of currency exchange and of external salaries declined, in turn reducing the and internal trade. Government employ- market for goods and services provided ment increased, without a concomitant to employees. Rural people were often improvement in the quality and provi- doubly penalised, by low prices for crops sion of services or the production of and high prices for, or sheer unavailabil- goods. Measures such as selective tariffs ity of, consumer goods. These were only and import controls were adopted to partially mitigated by smuggling and reduce luxury imports in favour of 'na- black markets. The high transaction costs tional' priorities. Governments tried to of 'parallel markets' had to be met by increase production of food and other producers and consumers. crops by supplying cheap fertiliser and other inputs on credit, often with World As governments extended their activities Bank funding and without increasing the beyond their own administrative and producer prices for crops. Staple food political capacities, and as they provoked prices were subsidised to give urban protective responses from their subjects consumers some protection from rising to the impact of their policies, states prices without raising wages. Govern- progressively reduced their control of ments regulated or took over trade to their economies and societies - and tried protect producers and consumers from to hold on ever more firmly to such levers being exploited by middlemen. of power as they still held.

Central to the strategies of African gov- ernments for directing their economies The Political Economy of Tribute was to control the convertibility of the Taking national currency and maintain its ex- The most marked consequences of in- change value as a means of reducing creased state regulation of the economy inflation. Overvalued currencies inflated were not the inefficiencies which it un- the demand for imported goods and doubtedly promoted in the allocation of necessitated direct control of commodity resources, but in the ways it decided who imports. would be able to get what resources, and who would be excluded. Access to re- The results of these policies were predict- sources came to be a function of people's able. Governments increased their budget political, and often also their geographi- deficits and put more money into circula- cal, distance from government. In Africa, tion. Foreign trade and balance of pay- as elsewhere, government contracts pro- ments deficits increased. Imported goods, vided a valuable means of rewarding including industrial inputs, became scarce friends and of converting public rev- and expensive, when they were available enues to private profits. State licensing of at all. Foreign exchange was used to imports and trading activities created 220 Review of African Political Economy monopolistic advantages, at local as well ties may not have originated corruption, as national levels, for public officials and but it certainly rewarded it massively. It their clients. The profits of 'parallel' trade is extraordinary that any socialist econo- accrued to favoured traders and their mists should defend policies, such as official protectors. Licences to import discretionary state controls of imports goods or to change money at the official and of internal markets, which enable the exchange rate became veritable licences powerful to become rich, and the rich and to print money. Government policies powerful to tax the poor, to subsidise made it possible to realise the ambitions themselves, to monopolise markets, le- of earlier generations of con-men: to take gally or illegally, and to gain privileged a sum of money and double it. access to increasingly scarce resources. It is remarkable that state policies of cheap- The extension of state control over eco- ening imports from abroad and restrict- nomic activities originated for a variety ing trade across the borders of African of reasons, which cannot all be summed countries should be defended in the name up as 'rent-seeking'. It certainly did of economic independence. create a range of opportunities for 'trib- ute taking'. These rewards accrued to a Liberal economic policies are necessary variety of beneficiaries among whom to match market prices, more or less, to politicians, public officials, civil and mili- the costs of production and to bring tary, large-scale farmers and favoured internal prices into line with border businessmen were prominent. People prices. As , a well-known lower down official hierarchies protected student of Adam Smith well understood, their own interests by emulating their the 'law of value' works through the betters, taking their own 'dash' on their exchange of commodities in competitive transactions with the public and usually markets. Far from overcoming the in- passing on a share to their superiors. equalities and instabilities generated by a market economy, state interventions have In some countries, urban consumers had tended to exacerbate them - as the most access to staple food at subsidised prices. vulgar marxist theory of the state would This could be maintained by keeping lead one to expect. producer prices low - thus reducing sales through official channels; or by increas- ing the state's budget deficit. Alterna- Logic of Structural Adjustment tively, food could be imported, typically When governments found themselves un- at prices artificially reduced by overval- able to pay for their current imports - even ued exchange rates, as a result of dump- for the most essential items, or to pay the ing by EC and US exporters, or as food interests on their foreign debts or raise new aid. Once the money ran out, and free loans, or to secure commercial trade cred- food was no longer available, govern- its, they were forced into the arms of the ments were forced to revalue their cur- international receivers of bankrupt gov- rencies and raise food prices sharply. ernments, the International Monetary Fund Cheap food policies made food expen- (IMF) and the World Bank. The interna- sive; they can only benefit urban workers tional financial institutions not only con- and other consumers temporarily. They trolled the available sources of money but are hardly equal participants in the 'de- also, in the light of the abject failures of velopment coalition' to whose interests governments' own policies, offered the Robert Bates attributes interventionist only plausible strategy for economic re- policies. form (The World Bank's own part in funding previous policies and augmenting Increasing the range of ways in which governments' debts was simply deleted governments regulated economic activi- from its institutional memory). Debate: Why Structural Adjustment is Necessary and Why It Doesn't Work 222

Typically, governments agreed initially Under IMF and World Bank direction, to adopt austerity programmes, cutting governments set up foreign exchange government expenditure - and thus wages markets, which allowed recognised bid- and employment, raising prices and re- ders to participate in an auction of ducing subsidies. The burdens of auster- foreign exchange - in some cases aug- ity fell particularly on people dependent mented by funds from the international on wages and on public services. Most financial institutions themselves. One out- governments reluctantly reduced the dol- come of this procedure, in Ghana and lar exchange rate of their currencies Nigeria for example, was a multiplication without leaving them to the market. of banks, who acquired their assets Governments were very reluctant to sur- through the auction. In Nigeria, govern- render control over imports and currency ment sought to protect the exchange rate exchange, their remaining levers of eco- by managing the auction. It then tried to nomic power, and the continuing source divert part of the demand for foreign of enrichment for those in power. exchange to an official parallel market, supplied by non-oil exports and foreign Finally, bankruptcy compelled govern- exchange imports. Banks obtained money ments to accept the direction of the at auction at, say, N10 = $1, and then international financial institutions as the recycled it on the parallel market at $1 = necessary price for rescheduling their N15. Eventually, the government was commercial debts and their access to forced to float the naira, producing a international credit. More or less will- sharp fall in its exchange rate. ingly African governments adopted vari- ants of the 'structural adjustment A radical devaluation is the essential key programmes' on offer from the IMF and to any strategy of structural adjustment, the Bank. These entailed moves in the but is not sufficient, even to itself. If direction of liberalising external trade people are to be persuaded to hold a and of commodity prices and internal currency, and to invest in the production trade, cutting back government spend- of goods sold for that currency, it must be ing, reducing subsidies on food and fuel, stable, as well, as convertible. Otherwise, privatisation of parastatal enterprises, anybody who is able to do so will spend raising charges for education, health and or convert it as fast as possible, pending a other services, and lowering wages and further devaluation. removing measures to protect employ- ment. Consequences of Devaluation Central to the whole strategy of structural A sharp devaluation immediately raises adjustment is devaluing the currency. This the costs in local currency of imported is intended to encourage legal exports and goods at the official exchange rate, that is constrain demand for imports. It is neces- what it is designed to do. It also raises the sary if imports are to be liberalised and local price of exports, in so far as the licences replaced with tariffs, and for change in the exchange rate is passed on government to regain control over unoffi- to producers. cial currency and commodity markets. It is essential to eliminate the opportunities If levels of income and government spend- which rationing overvalued currencies, ing are increased proportionately (by and imported goods, creates for the cor- raising wages and circulating money, to rupt enrichment of those who control the compensate for rising prices) effective allocation of foreign exchange. Therefore, demand for foreign imports and there- partial devaluations do not partially solve fore currencies rise, and the exchange rate the problems created by overvaluation, falls. If the currency is not fully convert- but leave them unresolved. ible, the gap between the official and the 222 Review of African Political Economy black market rate widens. Rigorous con- measure of tariff protection. The level, and trols on wage rises, government spend- the share, of imported inputs in their own ing and the supply of money and credit costs rises unless they can find local are therefore necessary for devaluations substitutes. These problems are generally to work to produce a stable, and ulti- greater the more capital-intensive and mately a convertible, exchange rate. technologically-advanced the production process. Governments are consequently compelled to cut back on public spending, and to Some firms may find new niches for seek new sources of revenue. It is there- exporting their products cheaply, if they fore not surprising that they have tended are allowed access to international mar- to reduce spending on health and educa- kets. High interest rates, combined with tional facilities, even if they recognise stagnant or declining markets and rising that these are essential to meet the needs import costs, discourage most firms from of an expanding population and to lay a investing in new plant, and further raise basis for future economic growth. In the prices at which they profitably sell theory, these services could be protected goods. Structural adjustment policies have by reducing government spending else- tended to lead to a partial and uneven where, notably on army salaries and recovery of industrial production. Recov- military equipment. This is unlikely to ery is likely to be most marked in happen quickly, especially in a situation industries able to switch to local inputs of political instability or even transition and where demand remains resilient in to democracy's democratic governments, the face of declining incomes - textiles too, have armies to contend with. and beer, for example. The twin con- straints of limited demand and rising People who are better placed by virtue of costs made it difficult to go beyond their money, position and influence to get partial recovery to sustained growth. access to these facilities will command a larger share of fixed or declining public Structural adjustment policies increase resources for themselves and their fami- the current costs of reproducing labour- lies. The result is that people generally power, at the same time as requiring pay more for health and education, and reductions in real wages. Transport costs for fuel, water and sanitation. The major- rise. So do the costs of schooling and ity are very unlikely to get better services health facilities. Wages are no longer in return and quite probably will have sufficient to pay rents and meet food and worse. If structural adjustment is to work, clothing bills. In the circumstances, strikes it cannot have a luiman face'. are likely to be ineffective. Other forms of withdrawing labour may not - moon- The implications of structural adjustment lighting, absenteeism or just not working policies for manufacturing are contradic- very hard. This is not a case of over- tory. Their major benefit is to allow pro- adjustment, as the World Bank has sug- ducers to purchase - at a higher price than gested; it is a direct result of the adjustment before - the imported materials they need strategy. without going through the maze of import and exchange controls and their attendant costs in time and money. Firms are thus Class Inequalities and Structural able to make better use of their productive Adjustment capacity. The cost of competing imports The costs of structural adjustment, and rises but local firms lose the protection the measures necessary to sustain it, fall provided by imports controls - and may most heavily on urban wage and salary not be in any position to match interna- earners, particularly those paid for out of tional prices or quality, even with a the public purse, and on consumers of Debate: Why Structural Adjustment is Necessary and Why It Doesn't Work 223 public services. They fall indirectly on the are generally levied only on wage and self-employed, who can, to some extent, salary earners. Governments could go pass on the costs of rising prices to their back to taxing export farmers instead - in customers, but who are confronted by Ghana they still do - but that would declining markets and increasing compe- contradict the whole purpose of the strat- tition. Conversely, in an agrarian egy. Ultimately, the successes and failures economy, structural adjustment benefits of structural adjustment do not turn on the producers of food and other crops by issues, important as they are, of 'factor raising local prices, both for exports and pricing', 'market failure' and 'economic for food imports. Since rural producers efficiency' to which neo-classical econo- were least likely to have access to im- mists devote their attention, but on the ported or manufactured goods at official central questions of the classical tradition - prices, or to have their fair share of to paraphrase Ricardo 'the distribution of public provision of schooling and health resources among the ... classes of civil facilities, they have less to lose from society', or perhaps as Harold Lasswell devaluation than their urban brothers or famously put it, 'Who gets what, when, sisters. how.'

Meanwhile, those who made money from the previous regime can now repat- The Long Run riate their foreign earnings and spend Over time, a successful devaluation will their wealth on goods which are freely generate increased production of goods for imported, for those who can afford them. export and for home consumption, thus Better still, they must be encouraged to releasing foreign exchange resources for invest their money and talents. Privatisa- other purposes and reducing inflationary tion of parastatal firms opens entrepre- pressures. By increasing both the use of neurial possibilities for those with access existing capacity and encouraging invest- to money and official influence, in Africa ment in the development of new produc- as in Britain and Eastern Europe. tive capacity, it will improve conditions for all. Some of these improvements are The success of structural adjustment in immediate i.e. higher prices for export an agrarian economy depends on the farmers. Other changes take time to work transfer of incomes to agricultural pro- their way through the system. In the mean ducers in order to encourage them to time, wage earners' incomes fall, funding increase production. Consequently, at for public services decreases, industrial least in the short term, there must be a production is constrained by high import reduction in the incomes of some other costs and limited demand. As old avenues group, specifically of urban wage earn- for tribute taking are closed off, new ones ers. are opened up.

There is an alternative solution to reduc- Governments find themselves confronted ing the incomes of the poor - in theory. by demands from a range of different That is to tax the benefits which accrued to groups seeking to protect, or to enhance, the rich under the old system, and to tax their access to resources in a situation of away a share of the gains of the beneficiar- scarcity. Rising import costs and local ies of the new. It is not simply possible to inflation put pressure on government maintain the incomes of, and the provision budgets. Politicians, army officers and of services to, the poor and even the not-so- state officials continue to appropriate poor, while allowing the rich to enjoy the public resources before they lose power benefits of their gains, ill-gotten or other- or the money runs out. Students protest wise. Few African countries have any against rising costs of education. Work- capacity to tax the rich at all. Direct taxes ers and salary earners seek to recover at 224 Review of African Political Economy least part of the incomes they have lost to structural adjustment is forced to main- rising prices and to protect their jobs. In tain strict control of fiscal policy, and several countries, sharp increases in food thus direction of the making and execu- and fuel prices, following devaluation tion of public policy. It has to find ways of and/or the reduction in subsidies, have resisting demands to provide resources brought workers, and sometimes stu- and, in particular, to restrain the ability of dents, out on the streets, with broad trade unions to restore some of the lost support from the urban public, in opposi- purchasing power of their wage packets, tion to the sacrifices imposed on them by and to oppose measures to reduce subsi- corrupt and authoritarian governments. dies on food, fuel, transport and other necessities. These imperatives lead gov- Governments consequently relax fiscal ernments to adopt authoritarian meas- policies to maintain their own activities, ures and to limit the formation of social reward rulers and their clients, and buy and political organisations autonomous off popular anger. They may give priority of the state. Structural adjustment is to paying the salaries and enhancing the therefore not easy to reconcile with the perks of the military - or at least that part development of democratic politics. of it on whom they rely to keep them in power. They lose political credibility and The costs of structural adjustment poli- their capacity to direct the economy. cies are immediate, and for most people They are forced to retreat from their their benefits can only be realised in the policies of liberalisation, or to watch a long run. The long run results of state further decline in the value of the cur- policies are usually not the outcomes rency and an additional push to the originally planned, but arise from the inflationary spiral. Reversing policies does complex interactions of responses to the not protect the currency from collapse or initial policies and the dynamics these prevent prices from rising. generate. The short-term priorities of private interest and political manage- In Africa, as in Eastern Europe, authori- ment undermine the achievement of long- tarian governments lost legitimacy as a term goals. result of their inability to continue to manage economic decline and interna- Structural Adjustment and the tional bankruptcy. Western powers be- Debt Problem gan to withdraw support from right-wing regimes, such as those in Kenya and Structural adjustment lending originated Malawi, in the name of democratic prin- as a means of providing long-term loans ciple, when they no longer appeared able to heavily indebted governments. The to maintain political order. In a number inability of African governments to pay of countries, the demand for multi-party their debts forced them to accept the democracy brought together coalitions of strategies of economic reform imposed diverse political, regional and class inter- on them by the international financial ests which had been excluded from power. institutions. Ironically, the obligation of Where they were successful in removing governments to service debt payments the old regime, as in Benin and Zambia, makes it impossible for structural adjust- they often found that the state cupboard ment policies to succeed. was bare. They were expected to imple- ment the structural adjustment pro- Countries embarking on structural ad- grammes their predecessors had left for justment programmes confront a backlog them without the means to meet the of demand for imports of industrial diverse expectations of their constituents. inputs and of consumer goods. Liberali- sation allows people to purchase imports Any government seeking to implement which were previously unavailable or Debate: Why Structural Adjustment is Necessary and Why It Doesn't Work 225

controlled by official monopolists, but ingenuity to finding ways to reconvert they are now more expensive and their their foreign assets into internationally costs keep up the rate of inflation. Peo- exchangeable forms. Convertibility and ple's demands for food, fuel, clothing, stabilisation of currencies is necessary to health or education cannot be met if the encourage foreigners - and nationals currency is to be stabilised at its new holding assets abroad - to invest in value and the cycle of successive devalu- African countries. The limited attractions ations and rising inflation is to be broken. for such investors mean that foreign investment depends on the problems of These problems can only be solved by a structural adjustment policies being sustained net inflow of foreign exchange. solved. It can only make a marginal This provides the means to pay for the contribution to them. import of materials, spare parts and machinery needed to bring factories back No solution to these problems is compat- to their productive capacity. It supplies ible with a continued net outflow of the incentive goods needed to encourage foreign exchange, to international finan- farmers to expand production for legal cial public and commercial banks, to markets. By increasing the supply of service debts. Debt rescheduling does not goods, it mitigates tendencies to inflation address this problem. It does not create which can otherwise only be constrained the conditions for the repayment of debt, by cutting demand and consequently but defines the conditions under which reducing production. countries will be permitted not to repay their debts. It only increases the unpaid - Foreign investors are unlikely to sustain and unpayable - principal and renegoti- net new investments. Over the last two ates creditors claims on the export earn- decades, they have preferred to take their ings of debtor countries. 'Debt for equity' money up front, in hard currencies, by swaps exchange unpayable debts for acting as contractors to governments, claims on real assets. The major purpose preferably on aid projects or with export of arrangements to reschedule, swap and credit guarantees to protect them. They write down debts may be to provide a have seen little advantage in investing in framework to enable creditors to redefine activities which generate profits in their imaginary assets. Which is where unconvertible currencies, and when they we began. have done so have devoted considerable Review of African Political Economy No.60:226-233 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIX #6007-08

Book Reviews

What Was Mau Mau? A by bestial impulses and influenced by world communism'. The left, on the other Controversy Revisited hand, romanticizes Mau Mau. Ngugi wa Thiongo has consistently portrayed it as a revolutionary, anti-imperialist liberation Mau Mau and Kenya: An Analysis of A movement, the pioneer of the present Peasant Revolt by Wunyabari O Maloba, radical political tradition in Kenya. That Indiana University Press, 1993. Reviewed Mau Mau was a precursor to radical by Rok Ajulu. politics in Kenya is certainly uncontestable. However, to credit Mau In October 1952, the colonial state in Mau with revolutionary anti-imperialism Kenya declared a state of emergency, is, in the opinion of this reviewer, stretch- banned all nationalist organisations, ar- ing the imagination beyond belief. Be- rested and detained most of the political tween these two extremes a more sober and activists. The country academic approach has prevailed and was to remain under the state of emer- serious attempts have been made to gency until 1960 when the colonial state understand Mau Mau and situate it felt confident enough to allow political within the settler colonial political activity and begin the process of assem- economy. Sorrenson's two seminal stud- bling the post-colonial state. What was ies in 1967 and 1968, and an earlier paper, Mau Mau? Why does it continue to be a 'Counterrevolution to Mau Mau: Land source of controversy, and why has the Consolidation in Kikuyuland' remain pio- post-colonial state been particularly hos- neering contributions in the field. tile to it? To this tradition must be added a number Among academics and political activists of key studies by Buijtenhuijs (1973 and in and outside Kenya, the struggle to 1982), Throup (1987), Kanongo (1987), understand and interpret Mau Mau has, and Furedi (1989). Apollo Njonjo's un- over the last two decades, generated its published PhD thesis, "The Africanisation own share of controversy. The right in of the White Highlands: A Study in Kenyan historiography (led by the best Agrarian Class Struggle in Kenya', still known of the pro-establishment academ- remains a forceful analysis of the eco- ics, Professor Bill Ochieng) have tended nomic, class, and social forces behind the to be dismissive of the Mau Mau move- 'peasant uprising'. And of course the ment, stubbornly refusing even to ac- recent contributions by Berman and knowledge its contribution to the struggle Lonsdale go a long way to further this for political independence from British tradition. Maloba's Mau Mau and Kenya: colonialism. To them, Mau Mau remains An Analysis of a Peasant Revolt, is in most a tribal movement which merely sought ways a continuation of this scholarly re-establishment of the Kikuyu peas- tradition. It is a well researched contribu- antry, a view not far removed from that of tion to the debate. Relying heavily on the colonial state which viewed the move- primary sources as well as secondary ment through the binoculars of settler material, the author has ably exhausted colonial capitalism and concluded that 'it all areas of archival research - the Kenya was an irrational force of evil, dominated National Archives, the Public Records Book Reviews 227

Office in London, Her Majesty's Station- the third world, he argues, Mau Mau ery Office, the Imperial War Museum sought to achieve the abolition of the and, of course, Rhodes House Library at status quo whereas its European counter- Oxford University. The book is divided parts generally fought for a return to a into nine chapters, and basically, one can 'glorious peasant past'. At the same time, only applaud the thematic flow of the however, Maloba argues that the leader- argument and a clear and coherent narra- ship question clearly sets Mau Mau apart tive which covers a period of half a from other third world peasant move- century from the 1920s - the economic ments. The latter, he suggests, while and social origins of Mau Mau - to the heavily reliant on the peasantry, were led 1970s. In the final analysis however, it by revolutionary intellectuals. "These lead- must be said that Maloba unearths no ers', he asserts, 'together with the revolu- fresh evidence on Mau Mau; the sources tionary cadre, organised the development are no different from the ones we have of the revolution'. In Mau Mau, he become used to over the last decade and a contends, there were no such revolution- half and the quotations are almost all ary intellectuals or cadres. Pursuing this familiar. Much the same could be said line of argument, he concludes that Mau about Maloba's interpretation of the evi- Mau was bound to fail because of a lack dence. His central argument, that Mau or absence of revolutionary intellectuals Mau was a product of the 'economics of and cadres. Thus the author comes close desperation' and the frustrations of na- to concurring with the main thrust of the tionalism is to be found in different forms argument of rightist scholarship that in some of the texts cited above. Nor can Mau Mau's failure was largely the result it be said that his conclusion, that Mau of the fact that it was not led by university Mau as a movement remained fractious or high school graduates. and that this lack of revolutionary ideol- ogy largely influenced the destiny of the While these are interesting arguments, revolt, is something new. they beg a prior, and important, question: namely to what extent Mau Mau can be So where does the contribution of this considered to have been a largely peasant study lie? I think the book is at its most movement. The fact of the matter is that forceful in its introduction where an Mau Mau was as much an urban as a attempt is made to compare Mau Mau as rural phenomenon; Indeed, the author a peasant uprising to other peasant move- himself implicitly acknowledges this ments in Europe and in the third world. when he observes that 'He [General Maloba argues that Mau Mau was a China] confirmed the colonial govern- 'nationalist, anti-colonial, peasant move- ment's suspicion that Nairobi was the ment which was similar to and different centre of Mau Mau activity'. But if Mau from both European peasant movements Mau was based in Nairobi then we must and third world revolutionary move- ask what its political base was in the city. ments'. It is in this attempt at a compara- Surely not the peasantry? And it would tive study as a means of providing a then follow that the leadership too could theory of peasant rebellions that the not have been drawn solely from the author makes a valuable contribution to peasantry! To regard it simply as a the debate on Kenya. peasant movement, however unique or otherwise, is surely not correct. The error, Maloba suggests that Mau Mau differed as with the many references to Mau Mau in one critical respect from most Euro- as a Kikuyu 'tribal' organisation, steins pean peasant movements and in another largely from the epistemological ap- from most third world revolutionary proaches of the various scholars on whom organisations. Like other successful peas- Maloba leans. Of course Mau Mau had to ant-based revolutionary movements in be predominantly Kikuyu-based. How 228 Review of African Political Economy else could we be able to explain the Hague: Mouton; Buijtenhuijs (1982), Essays on specificity of capitalist penetration of pre- Mau Mau, Leiden: African Studies Centre. capitalist social formations and the at- Furedi, Frank (1989), The Mau Mau War in tendant uneven development of capitalist Perspective. relations of production? I think that a Kanogo, Tabitha (1987), Squatters and the Roots more balanced assessment would also of Mau Mau, London: James Currey/Nairobi: emphasise the important class character Heinemann. of Mau Mau as a national anti-colonial Lonsdale, John (1990), 'Mau Maus of the Mind: movement. Making Mau Mau and Remaking Kenya', Journal of African History 31. Basically Mau Mau was a political or- wa Thiong'o, Ngugi (1967), A Grain of Wheat, ganisation of the dispossessed peasantry, London: Heinemann; wa Thiong'o (1981), the embryonic proletariat, petty traders, Detained, London: Heinemann; wa Thiong'o the unemployed and the lumpen-prole- with Micere Mugo (1976) The Trial of Dedan tariat. It represented those social classes Kimathi, London: Heinemann. most deeply displaced by the colonial Njonjo, A L (1977), "The Africanisation of the political economy. Thus, like the Parisian "White Highlands": A Study in Agrarian Struggles in Kenya, 1950-1974' (unpublished sans-culottes which, at the height of the PhD thesis, Princeton University). Jacobin dictatorship, shook the petit- bourgeoisie, scattered the Girondins, and Sorrenson, M P K (1967), Land Reform in the dragged the big bourgeoisie and the Kikuyu Country, Nairobi: Oxford UP; Sorrenson (1968), The Origins of European Settlement in nobility to the guillotine, Mau Mau simi- Kenya, Nairobi: Oxford UP. larly silenced the African middle classes, forced the uncommitted into passive Throup, D W (1987), Economic and Social Origins of Mau Mau, London: James Currey/Nairobi: neutrality, and imposed its will on the Heinemann. important urban centres like Nairobi and Nakuru. The defeat of Mau Mau there- fore represented a victory not only for the colonial state, but equally, and more forecfully, for the moderate indigenous An End to Isolation: The Report of the classes it had locked out of the political Ogaden Needs Assessment Study 1991 by ring during the period 1952-60. It is not Julius Holt and Mark Lawrence (Save the surprising therefore that the present rul- Children in association with Early Warning ing class remains implacably opposed to and Planning Services Relief and Rehabilita- Mau Mau while its academic supporters tion Commission, London 1991); The Prize are forever concocting scholarly argu- of Peace: A survey of rural Somaliland by ments to denigrate this tradition of anti- Julius Holt and Mark Lawrence (Save the colonialism. In my opinion, until this Children, London 1992); Making Ends debate is able to confront the question of Meet: A survey of the food economy of the the class character of Mau Mau and the Ethiopian northeast highlands by Julius class forces of , we Holt and Mark Lawrence (Save the Children, will forever remain embroiled in this London 1993). Reviewed by Anne Palmer. nonsence of the Mau Mau as an exclu- sively tribal movement. These valuable surveys are one of the only sources on the food economy and demography of regions of the Horn Additional Bibliography which have been affected by conflict. Berman, Bruce (1990), Control and Crisis in They thus provide a further illustration Colonial Kenya, London: James Currey/Nairobi: of NGOs as an invaluable source of Heinemann. information, previously undertaken by Buijtenhuijs, Robert (1973), Mau Mau: Twenty government or academic researchers. This Years After the Myth and the Survivors, The involvement in research is an inevitable Book Reviews. 229 byproduct of their increasing role in ad- of such surveys and has developed a ministering relief: if they are to plan and to distinctive style of 'Rapid Rural Ap- target a major part of food aid they clearly praisal' whereby, from stays of under 24 need information. They thus become im- hours in the villages and settlements a portant as a vital source of information as significant amount of information is well as welfare, which in turn raises crucial yielded, but which manages to cover vast and more general questions regarding the areas on a representative basis. Research role of NGOs, not least the cynical ques- teams are transported to settlements by tion of whether this represents the privati- means of helicopter which overcomes sation of service delivery and furtherance many of the disadvantages of overland of IFI goals in reducing the state sector? Or travel in terms of accessing more remote is this an efficient operation rationally areas. Moreover the researchers gain an executed by the organisation best suited unprecedented picture of the topographi- for the job, or at least the only provider? cal and environmental context. In the These questions about their several roles Ogaden and Somaliland the helicopter underlies such studies as these but the method proved indispensable in identify- specific issue as to how they fare as ing the pattern of settlement of pastoralists investigators and compilers of information during the overflight in order that a are best answered by an evaluation of random sample could be selected, al- reports themselves. though they make for high cost.

In 1992, the northeastern highlands of The basic issues addressed by the surveys Ethiopia faced the first full 'normal' were general questions of food security agricultural cycle after many years of and how the people were making ends drought and conflict which led to ques- meet. In the Ogaden survey the capability tions regarding its long-run capability to of the region to support the economic escape from the 'emergency-relief syn- reintegration of 'returnees' from Somalia drome. In 1991 the Ogaden had been the (i.e. former residents of the Ogaden who subject of yet another humanitarian relief were fleeing conflict in their adopted exercise and faced the daunting prospect home) emerged as a crucial question. The of providing for tens of thousands of kin impact of returnees (in this case people and former neighbours fleeing from the who had taken refuge in Ethiopia and the war in Somalia. Somaliland at the end of internally displaced) and their economic 1991 had faced three years of conflict and status was more fully investigated in the two years of drought. These were the Somaliland report. In each case the meth- contexts for the food economy surveys ods used were an anthropometric survey undertaken by research teams led by of the nutritional status of children (un- Julius Holt and Mark Lawrence of Save der 140cm in the Ogaden and Somaliland the Children (SCF). Although these three and under 110cm in the highlands) and a regions have important differences both socio-economic questionnaire completed within and between their agrarian sys- during a two to three hour discussion tems these surveys show many similari- with elders and other representatives of ties of needs and constraints. Drought the community in the evening. The re- and war have affected the areas in differ- search teams spent the night in the ent ways, however, recurring themes of villages, a fact that generally impressed each survey were the decline in livestock the villagers. Perhaps this is one advan- (for draft power as well as for food and tage of the 'NGO approach'. sale in the northeast highlands), the shortage of livelihoods and thus 'entitle- The 'villages' or areas surveyed were ments' both in terms of cash and goods to sampled in slightly different ways in each exchange and thus the continuing need of the regions, though in each case three for food aid. SCF has completed a number bases were chosen from which the heli- 230 Review of African Political Economy copters accessed the villages along radii. cultivation due to the problems in main- The samples were then stratified accord- taining a viable herd (p. 39). This decline ing to agrarian type in the case of the in the number of pure pastoralists is not Ogaden (three groups: pastoralist, agro- a good signal in view of the child pastoralist and settled farming); agrarian nutritional survey suggesting better type (pastoral and agro-pastoral) and health of pastoralists in comparison to according to the presence of refugees in agro-pastoralists (p. 28); the reverse of Somaliland; and a two-way stratification this trend was identified in Somaliland in the highlands according to altitude and (p. 25). But the SCF assume that if their administrative region (the latter repre- higher expectation was not confirmed, senting the north-south geographical dif- this was because of recent changes. It ferences). Thus in the highlands the may well be that pastoralist and agro- defining altitude categories were in de- pastoralist communities are never ran- scending order dega, woina-dega and east-domly and rootlessly nomadic, contrary ern and western qolla, with the to the assumptions of outside agencies administrative regions roughly corre- and their agricultural neighbours. sponding to Tigray, Northern Wollo and Southern Wollo. Villages were sampled The Ogaden report reveals that a largely roughly according to these substratum imperceptible and informed relief opera- with some reference to the differing tion had been going on: the villagers were population densities (to avoid over repre- supporting kin returned from Somalia. sentation of less populated eastern and However this could not continue indefi- western qolla). nitely. There was a need to find ways to make returnees economically active, In the Ogaden with its more dispersed which was often a matter of providing population the study drew out hexagonal resources so that skilled people could areas divided into sectors of 2,000 square provide for themselves and their families. km from which it was aimed to select (at This operation is seen as a further blow to random) one each of agro-pastoral and the local economy already damaged by pastoral groups. However this was not the breakdown of trade with Somalia. always possible because both groups The report concludes that the food aid were not there or because of security and relief action must continue and reasons. Settled farming settlements were increase. This is seen not just as an clustered along the Wabi Shebele river immediate humanitarian response but as where the periodic flooding aided agri- an opportunity to promote the economic culture. future of a formerly thriving trading economy. Other measures advocated in- The Ogaden report mainly sought to clude veterinary services for animals hit identify the most pressing problems and by disease (identified as a greater prob- what could be done. However a number lem for livestock than water, p. 37), the of interesting points were made regard- delivery of food aid not just as grain ing the . This hand-outs but as income support, accom- pastoralist society was not quite so no- panied by tools and seeds so as to set in madic as expected; 29% of pastoralists motion trade, and the promotion of subsi- and agro-pastoralists did not expect to dised grain sales to make food more move in normal circumstances and only affordable. These are steps to set the 9% before the Dayir rains, i.e. the short, economy back on its feet, not long term light rains of late September to end in solutions; these were not in the mandate October or early November (p. 39). The of the report. explanation for the more sedentary life- style seen as most likely by SCF is an Similar reconnaissance and sampling increasing trend towards dependence on methods to those in the Ogaden report Book Reviews 231

were used in Somaliland where the rural centre. So far the refugees had returned population is not in residential clusters on a piecemeal and voluntary basis and and herders move with their animals. The were not experiencing acute food short- country was divided into 77 sectors of ages; indeed they were concentrated in equal area from which sites were chosen the most prosperous region of the coun- at random. A distinction was made be- try at the time of the survey. However, tween the pastoralists and agro- constraints on food supply were antici- pastoralists and the more permanent pated in the event of wholesale official settlements which service the primary repatriation. The report points out that producers. The survey sampled only the the region is vulnerable to drought and former because they were considered the return home of all refugees would more vulnerable. The survey areas were increase the rural population by over based on the principal markets used by twenty per cent (p.55), an increase which the rural population. cannot be accommodated in the short term. As in the Ogaden, trade is crucial to the Somaliland economy. Although livestock The immediate prescription for forms the main item of production, peo- Somaliland given by SCF was support to ple consume grain purchased by means regenerate flocks and herds (especially of livestock and livestock produce sale. disease control) in order that trade could Thus the terms of trade between livestock be conducted on more favourable terms. and grain is critical. Livestock exported Some optimism was expressed since ef- to the Gulf has fetched steadily lower fective commercial networks exist for prices and the formerly major market jn trade and distribution of grain. However Saudi has collapsed due to the poor one problem is the source of grain. condition of the cattle. Calculations of During the drought much grain has terms of trade (p.51) indicate that in the originated in Ethiopian refugee camps, southeast they were declining below the an inherently unstable supply. Hence minimum required for survival, in the SCF advocated subsidised grain sales. northeast they were already severely Support for the return of refugees was unfavourable. As the long dry season also seen as vital. One might also point to progressed the situation was likely to get the value of some form of international worse as animals became increasingly recognition that would make possible weaker, produced less milk and fetched official aid and normal economic links to lower prices on the market. Livestock this breakaway but relatively peaceful sales were at a relative high, an indication territory. that the traditional 'insurance policy' of the pastoralists retaining a breeding and Ethiopia's northeast were the areas most capital stock was becoming eroded. devastated by famine in 1973-4 and 1983-4, and in mid-1994 face massive food short- The survey yielded a broadbrush picture ages again. Many planners and donors still of the physical effects of the war. The accept the logic behind the Mengistu effect of land mines was not so wide- regime's draconian resettlement from these spread as the destruction of wells and areas of the 1980s if not its methods: that berkas (ground-water collection tanks) these areas are terminally degraded envi- and looting of equipment essential to the ronmentally and sustainable agriculture operation of wells and boreholes (e.g. for this number of people is not recover- generators). The restoration of water able. Certainly, one main conclusion of the sources was an important prescription of survey of Wollo and Tigray is the funda- the report. Returnees made up a signifi- mental need for the continuation of food cant proportion of the population in the aid. It is vital in good years and bad. The western areas and to a lesser extent in the report warns against the dire conse- 232 Review of African Political Economy quences of any cessation of aid. There is of food for work (FFW) programmes, some evidence that aid is not always well which are especially relevant in areas of targeted and there are reports of aid grain the highlands facing environmental deg- being sold, but often this is more indica- radation. Doubts are raised about the tive of dire poverty: people without pack usefulness of actual FFW activities espe- animals (owned by only 21%, p. 47) and cially regarding location and geographi- living far from distribution points may be cal equity (the road bias). FFW may be unable to carry food aid home but must merely 'moving earth' and projects may sell it immediately only to buy grain not be suitable in relation to cultivation (often at higher prices) once they reach needs. FFW is not seen as substitute for home. free distribution. Moreover, despite the apparent desirability of the environmen- The extent of social differentiation in tal projects such as soil conservation terms of livestock ownership and com- works, small scale damming for farming mand over land in the northeast high- and salvaging degraded land often asso- lands was not expected given the land ciated with FFW, they are not always reforms of the 1970s. The skewed distri- appropriate technically or of economic bution of oxen was echoed in holdings of priority in increasing food production cattle and immature males (the source of and there may not be sufficient of them to natural increase, milk products and of provide for the food needs of a growing the essential draft power) and more population. Already the majority of the surprisingly in holdings of goats and population depend on off-farm income sheep (ch. 4). These poorer households' for most of their food intake (p. 134). lack of assets implied very low cash liquidity for every day purposes and a In view of the importance of the altitude further indication of impoverishment. In differences in the highlands in terms of this area where cultivation is dependent food production, crop mix, mix of live- on ploughing with oxen the average stock, population density, temperature holding was a pair of oxen for every and rainfall, it would have been useful to three households (p. 41); however, provide contours on the many maps of roughly half the households had no oxen the highland settlements to provide a at all and must till the land by hand, hire reminder of the geographical differences. or borrow oxen. Earnings from rent of Another slight criticism is the relative oxen (in the form of a share of the harvest neglect of gender issues despite register- or grazing) tilt the balance in favour of ing the particular problems of the many the minority of 'rich' households. The women-headed households (24% in the long term consequences of such inequal- highlands, p. 49). The difficulties in break- ity beyond targeting food distribution is ing with formal representation of the not considered further in this report, its village by men are mentioned in the immediate concern is food aid needs and Ogaden report which comments that this potential for continued economic activ- might be addressed by a higher female ity in the region. In relation to this it is representation in the research team. How- evident that overall average livestock ever there is no evidence that subsequent holdings are below the minimum re- reports tackled gender issues any more quired for sustaining ploughing most of fully. the cultivable land in the area, even if they were equitably shared. One of the To summarise, these three reports repre- most immediate concerns in the view of sent an impressive attempt to present a SCF is to sustain the current holdings of picture of the lives, needs and aspirations livestock through emergency veterinary of societies in a part of the world facing services and restocking. The highlands major crises of survival. To anyone con- report includes an interesting discussion cerned to get the necessary detail of New Books 233 conditions in the Horn, these surveys of the villagers in coping with both an provide an important source and a base- unforgiving climate and man-made prob- line for further demographic and socio- lems and conflict. The essential response economic study now some of the region is summed up in a concluding passage in is returning to peace. The immediate the Ogaden report: the people had ridden needs for sustaining these societies are over the problems so far but in doing so identified by the villagers themselves and had exhausted their resources. 'It would are presented by SCF in a coherent and be an unacceptable gamble to expect logical fashion. The need to step up relief them to continue without a substantial in both areas is impressed upon the helping hand' (p. 55). reader whilst pointing out the resilience

New & Forthcoming Books

Compiled by The Africa Book Centre his is a selection of books published Verde. Notes, bibliography, index, maps, Trecently or due to be published in the 164pp, Hbk. [0313267464] £56.99. second half of 1994. It is extracted from a far Fans & Khan, Sustainable Agriculture in Egypt. longer listing compiled by the Africa Book Over twenty essays on the themes of sustain- Centre, 38 King St, London, WC2E 8JT (Fax able agriculture, the environment, resources, +44 (0) 171 497 0309 outside UK and 0171 technology, economic aspects, culture soci- 497 0309 in UK). It is designed to give ety and politics. Hbk. 275pp. [1555873707] students of African Political Economy infor- £29.95. mation about recent and some forthcoming Mkandawire & Matlosa, Food Policy and Agri- publications, and is culled from catalogues culture in Southern Africa. Essays: micro- and produced by publishers and their agents macroeconomic situations and policies, (although publishers plans do change often). women, land tenure, the state, training, etc. Books listed can be ordered from the Africa Index, bibliography, notes, statistics, 250pp. Book Centre by faxing a Mastercard or Visa [0797412255] £13.95. card number, expiry date and card regis- Neocosmos, Michael, Agrarian Question in Af- tered address; they will only charge your rica and 'The Concept from Below', The. A card when books are ready to be sent. debate on democracy and accumulation set Postage charges of about 15% will be added against the experience of Southern Africa. to the cost of the book for overseas orders. Research Report #89.100pp. [9171063420]. Singh & Tabatabai, Economic Crisis and Third World Agriculture. Considers the global im- Agriculture/Food pact on agriculture of recent economic poli- Bassett & Crummey, Land in African Agrarian cies, and the long term role of agriculture in Systems. Contends that privatisation is not a economic growth. 58 tables, illustrations. panacea for agrarian ills. Solutions need to 224pp. [0521441013] £35.00. take in to account how resources are used, World Bank, Agricultural Pricing Policy in produced and acquired. 9 maps, 19 figures. Eastern Africa. A guide to macroeconomic 416pp. [] £49.95. stimulation policies in Kenya, Tanzania, Bigman, Laura, History and Hunger in West Malawi and Zambia. 94pp. [0821319671] Africa. Chapters on the food question in £13.95. Africa, peoples in Guinea-Bissau and the slave trade, its colonial economy and poli- Aid tics, followed by similar chapters on Cape Atampugre, N, Behind The Lines of Stone. New Books 233 conditions in the Horn, these surveys of the villagers in coping with both an provide an important source and a base- unforgiving climate and man-made prob- line for further demographic and socio- lems and conflict. The essential response economic study now some of the region is summed up in a concluding passage in is returning to peace. The immediate the Ogaden report: the people had ridden needs for sustaining these societies are over the problems so far but in doing so identified by the villagers themselves and had exhausted their resources. 'It would are presented by SCF in a coherent and be an unacceptable gamble to expect logical fashion. The need to step up relief them to continue without a substantial in both areas is impressed upon the helping hand' (p. 55). reader whilst pointing out the resilience

New & Forthcoming Books

Compiled by The Africa Book Centre his is a selection of books published Verde. Notes, bibliography, index, maps, Trecently or due to be published in the 164pp, Hbk. [0313267464] £56.99. second half of 1994. It is extracted from a far Fans & Khan, Sustainable Agriculture in Egypt. longer listing compiled by the Africa Book Over twenty essays on the themes of sustain- Centre, 38 King St, London, WC2E 8JT (Fax able agriculture, the environment, resources, +44 (0) 171 497 0309 outside UK and 0171 technology, economic aspects, culture soci- 497 0309 in UK). It is designed to give ety and politics. Hbk. 275pp. [1555873707] students of African Political Economy infor- £29.95. mation about recent and some forthcoming Mkandawire & Matlosa, Food Policy and Agri- publications, and is culled from catalogues culture in Southern Africa. Essays: micro- and produced by publishers and their agents macroeconomic situations and policies, (although publishers plans do change often). women, land tenure, the state, training, etc. Books listed can be ordered from the Africa Index, bibliography, notes, statistics, 250pp. Book Centre by faxing a Mastercard or Visa [0797412255] £13.95. card number, expiry date and card regis- Neocosmos, Michael, Agrarian Question in Af- tered address; they will only charge your rica and 'The Concept from Below', The. A card when books are ready to be sent. debate on democracy and accumulation set Postage charges of about 15% will be added against the experience of Southern Africa. to the cost of the book for overseas orders. Research Report #89.100pp. [9171063420]. Singh & Tabatabai, Economic Crisis and Third World Agriculture. Considers the global im- Agriculture/Food pact on agriculture of recent economic poli- Bassett & Crummey, Land in African Agrarian cies, and the long term role of agriculture in Systems. Contends that privatisation is not a economic growth. 58 tables, illustrations. panacea for agrarian ills. Solutions need to 224pp. [0521441013] £35.00. take in to account how resources are used, World Bank, Agricultural Pricing Policy in produced and acquired. 9 maps, 19 figures. Eastern Africa. A guide to macroeconomic 416pp. [] £49.95. stimulation policies in Kenya, Tanzania, Bigman, Laura, History and Hunger in West Malawi and Zambia. 94pp. [0821319671] Africa. Chapters on the food question in £13.95. Africa, peoples in Guinea-Bissau and the slave trade, its colonial economy and poli- Aid tics, followed by similar chapters on Cape Atampugre, N, Behind The Lines of Stone. 234 Review of African Political Economy

Describes the effects of water conservation Latham, A J H, Africa, Asia And South America projects in Burkina Faso. Pbk and Hbk, Since 1800: A Bibliographical Guide. A select photos, maps, tables, 192pp. [0855982586]. annotated bibliography listing 5,000 books Rimmer, Douglas, Action In Africa. Essays from (mostly published since 1945. Hbk, c240pp. the 1993 conference of the Royal African [0719018773]. Society: economic liberalization, markets, Lindfors, Bernth, Black African Literature In debt, the state and democracy, human devel- English, 1987-1991. Over 6000 entries (in- opment; these are themes addressed in 15 cludes books and periodicals), 4 indexes. essays. Statistics, notes, index, 189pp. Part 1 is arranged by genre, topic and [0852553730] £35. reference source, part two by critical writing, Staal & et al, Angola: Building the Future. Short interviews about/with authors. Hbk, 544pp. description of the state of life and death in [1837836163] £70. Angola, and of projects to rehabilitate a Mann, Michael, Bibliography Of African Lan- community in Luanda. Pamphlet, guage Texts. Bibliography of the SO AS collec- 32pp.[1898776058] £2.95. tions to 1963; over 7,000 entries in 300 languages. Hbk, 448pp. [1873836317] £70. Bibliography/Reference Pearson, J D, Guide to Documents and Mss in the Allen, Chris, African Bibliography 1992. Over British Isles Relating To Africa. A two volume 5,000 works, categorised by region, country, revised guide, greatly expanded. Hbks. subject; includes journal articles and pam- 416pp. [0702120888] £100. phlets. Also available the 1991 edition, 480pp, Schmidt, Nancy J, Sub-Saharan African Films [0748604839], £40. and Film makers: an Annotated Bibliogra- Arnold, Guy, Political and Economic Encyclopae- phy. Updating and supplementing her previ- dia of Africa. Focuses on providing back- ous volume this book has over 3,000 entries, ground information to the current political 6 indexes. Covers 1987-1992. Hbk, 400pp. and economic state of each African country. [187383621X] £55. Also provides overviews of regional and Zimbabwe Books in Print 1993.[0797412239]. African issues. Maps. Hbk. £16.75. 400pp.[0582209951] £89.99. Baird, Polly, Setting up and Running a School Debt & Foreign Investments Library. A lively and practical guide to Anunobi, Fredoline, Implications of running a school library with examples from Conditionality, The: IMF and Africa. Critical the experience of teachers around the world. review of the impact of IMF policies, with Produced in cooperation with Voluntary recommendations for restructuring the insti- Service Overseas. Paper, 64 pages (est.), tution and its policies. Maps, notes, statistics, [0435923048] £3.50. bibliography, index, 338pp, Pbk. Baker, Philip, International Directory of African [081918795X] £33.95. Studies Research, 3rd edition. Information on Watkins, Kevin, Multilateral Debt: The Case of 1,500 institutions with many indexes. Hbk, Uganda. An Oxfam briefing paper, A4 for- 398pp. [1873836368] £100. mat, pamphlet. [0855982772] £2.95. Carpenter, John, Library Acquisitions In Asia And Africa. A guide to many aspects of Economics acquisition management including issues of Abegaz, Bernahu, Essays On Ethiopian Economic selection, ordering, using aid, gifts and Development. Varied views on past records exchanges, budgets, etc. The book covers and future prospects, 6 illustrations, 48 journals and serials, non-print materials and tables, 357pp. [1856286339] £49.95. books themselves. 140pp. [0700702865] £9.99. Adedeji, Adebayo, Africa In The New World Codesria, Index Of African Social Science Periodi- Order. Examines ways of reversing decline cal Articles Vols. 2/3, 1990-1991. lists and with emphasis on democratic structures, indexes over 500 records, 248pp.[] £19.95. ethics and accountability, co-operative ac- Driver, D, Nadine Gordimer: A Bibliography of tion in regional and world organisations. Primary and Secondary Sources. Over 3,000 Contributors include S Abdul, B Davidson, L entries, 6 indexes, including criticism. Hbk, Emmerrij, S George, B Ndiaye, B Onimode 360pp.[1873836260] £50. and Dr N Motlana. 192pp. [1856492508] New Books 235

£13.95. apartheid .South Africa. How will the state Berman & Leys, African Capitalists In African behave as an economic regulator under the Development. This book goes beyond the ANC? c450pp, Pbk. [0868142256] £17.95. state/market debate to consider the role of Lopes, Carlos, Enough is Enough: For an Alterna- entrepreneurs in African development. tive Diagnosis of the African Crisis. The Eleven essays with studies of individual African crisis is a recurrent theme in all countries and particular sectors. Hbk. c discourse on Africa in the 1990s in stark 325pp. L Rienner [1555874177] £39.95. contrast with the optimism of the early Callaghy & Ravenhill, Hemmed in: Responses to decades of independence. This discussion Africa's Economic Decline. Essays by experts paper questions the description of Africa as on the use of aid, technology transfer, being in crisis. Paper, 38 pages. SIAS ecological controls, communications, the need [9171063471] £5.95. for stable political systems, etc. 552pp. & Mwamba, Structural Adjustment [0231082282] £43.50. Programme in Zambia, The. This monograph Forrest, Tom, Advance Of African Capital, The. A assesses Zambia's experience under the Struc- detailed and extensive study of medium and tural Adjustment Programme and concludes large businesses in Nigeria, with profiles of that there remains much to be critical about key entrepreneurs, and case studies. 256pp. in the way the programme was imple- [0748604928] £40. mented. 48 pages. [0797410562] £3.95. Gibbon, Peter, Social Change And Economic Stedman, Stephen John, South Africa: The Politi- Reform In Africa. African and Scandinavian cal Economy of Transformation. Essays (12) on scholars' essays on adjustment policies in distribution, youth, local negotiations, selected African countries. 381pp, tables, women, race relation laws, reconciliation, bibliography, Pbk. SIAS [9171063315] £12.95. defence forces, regional factors, democracy Grosh, Barbara, State-owned Enterprise In Af- and growth, and transition. Notes, some rica. Eleven essays on experiences in Kenya, statistics, bibliography, 222pp, Hbk. Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, [1555874215] £37.95. , Togo, Ivory Coast, and Mali. World Bank, Adjustment in Africa: Lessons from Considering SOE's origins, the impact of Country Case Studies. Supplements the above structural adjustment, relations with the report with case studies on seven countries. state, etc. c260pp. L Rienner [1555874533] 448pp. World Bank [0821327879] £32.95. £38.95. World Bank, Adjustment in Africa: Reforms, Himbara, David, Kenyan Capitalists, The State Results and the Road Ahead. Argues that and Development. Contents include studies of countries that did not follow WB priorities the history of capitalism in Kenya and its development failed. A crucial political docu- dynamics, the role of Asian capitalists and ment given the WB's influence. 304pp. Ox- African entrepreneurs, the role of the state, ford University Press [019520994X] £18.95. case histories of corruption, conclusion, c Africa Review, The. 17th Edition. A survey of the 190pp. L Rienner [1555874304] £29.95. polities and economies of all African coun- Kaplinsky, Raphael, South Africa's Industrial tries. Basic country profiles data, business Performance And Structure. A pamphlet com- guide and directory, statistics. Currencies, paring economic performance. [] £4.95. key indicators, 208pp. Kogan Page Khennas, S, Industrialization, Mineral Resources [074941071X] £24.95. And Energy In Africa. Presents nine case Making Democracy Work: A Framework for studies of African countries whose econo- Macroeconomic Policy in S. Africa. The report mies are based primarily on mineral re- of the Macro-Economic Research Group to sources and highlights the capacity for capital the members of the Democratic Movement goods production and priorities for inte- of South Africa in which a radically different grated industrial development. An impor- vision of the future of South Africa is offered. tant contribution by African researchers to The aim is to secure a rapid improvement in the debate on industrialisation in Africa. the lot of the poorest South African's, par- 339pp, index, tables, Pbk and Hbk. COD ticularly in the areas of housing, jobs, wom- [286978015X] £26.50. en's situation, skills and wages. 330pp, Lipton & Simkins, State And Market In Post- tables, bibliography, Pbk. University of the 236 Review of African Political Economy

Western Cape [1868081834] £14.95. Arnolds, Eileen McCarthy, Africa, Human Rights and the Global System: Political Economy of Environment Human Rights in Changing world. Addresses Cole, Ken, Sustainable Development For A Demo- concerns about structural adjustment, re- cratic South Africa. Seventeen essays on the gional integration, development and liberali- economy; state, NGOs and social policy; sation, and human rights issues, in the education and the media; overviews. Pbk, African context. Hbk, 288pp. [0313290075] notes, index, 261pp. [1853832308] £16.95. £49.99. Omolu & Winter, Environmental Development. Middle East Watch, Behind Closed Doors: Tor- Special issue of the journal African Develop- ture and Detention in Egypt. A report on ment: thirteen articles on many countries. human rights abuses in Egypt. Paper, 220 277pp. [] £12. pages, appendices, index. [1564320650] £9.99. Picard & et al, Policy Reform for Sustainable Nightmare Continues, The: Abuses against Somali Development in Africa: The Institutional Im- Refugees in Kenya. A 54pp pamphlet. [] £4.85. perative. Case studies on Ghana, Nigeria, Somalia: Human Rights Abuses by the UN Forces. Zambia, Tanzania, Kenya and Botswana; Pamphlet, 34pp. [] £5.95. general overviews, essays on management Divide and Rule: State Sponsored Ethnic Violence and intervention, etc. 175pp. [1555874495] in Kenya. The disturbing increase in the level £25. of inter-ethnic violence in Kenya in the last two years is examined in this latest report Health/Medical from Africa Watch, the regional organisation Green, E C, Aids and STDs in Africa. STDs are of New York-based observers Human Rights often taken to traditional healers - responses Watch. 97pp, Pbk. [1564321177] £6.99. to AIDS must therefore be in co-operation with them. Pbk, 224pp. [0813378478] £29.95. Mining Marks, Shula, Divided Sisterhood: Race and Ally, R, Gold and Empire: The Bank of England Gender in the South African Nursing Profession. and South Africa's Gold 1886-1926. A detailed 'A complex history told with consummate study of the impact of Bank policy. 256pp. clarity, compassion and poignancy ...'AM [0868142264] £25. Rafferty. Hbk, index, bibliography, 300pp. Chachage, et al C S L, Mining and Structural [0333546199] £45. Adjustment. The larger part of this research Renfrew, Anne, ESAP And Health. Considers report is a study of the Zimbabwean mining the impact of Structural Adjustment policies industry and the political and economic on health in Zimbabwe. Increased medical context in which it works, and how it has fees, and rationalisation of health services changed since independence. This is fol- have affected most poor people. 32pp, Pam- lowed by an essay on mining and gold in phlet.!] £1.95. Tanzania. 107pp. [9171063404] £5.95. Williams, Glen, Working Against Aids. De- Kanfer, Stefan, Last Empire: De Beers, Diamonds scribes workplace strategies against AIDS and the World. How De Beers has fought its developed in Zimbabwe. Illustrated, 65pp. humbler beginnings and current problems. [1872502253] £4.95. Hbk, 416pp. [034053382X] £20. World Bank, Uganda: Social Sectors. Argues that if the country's poor social conditions Politics are to improve expenditure must be in- Adelman, Sam, Crisis In South Africa. Looks at creased and must be better used. 222pp. the dismantlement of grand apartheid and [0821327135] £15. considers the circumstances which brought this about. 192pp. [0745305113] £24.95. Human Rights Aidid & Ruhela, Preferred Future Development Africa Watch, South Africa. Reviews the [small] In Somalia, The. Forty papers from many progress made by the S African state in disciplines which together form a virtual protecting human rights. Argues that most of blueprint for the reconstruction of Somalia. the recommendations made in the "Killings 477pp. [0706973046] £29.95. In S Africa' report have been ignored. Notes. Ayittey, George B N, Africa Betrayed. A power- A4 format, pamphlet. 73pp. [S] £6.50. ful attack on the dictators who have ruined New Books 237

an entire continent, Dr Ayittey writes Drysdale, John, Whatever Happened to Somalia? devastatingly on black neo-colonialism, ar- A compelling account which seeks to explain guing that commentators are naive to blame why the Somalis themselves got into a external factors for Africa's misery. Now in horrible mess and why their country got into paperback. 412pp, index, bibliography. MAC a deeper mess because of the UN's action in [0333616030] £16.99. pursuit of the doctrine of enforcement. Alexander, N, Some are more equal than others: Paper, 216 pages, map. Haan [1874209510] Essays on the Transition in South Africa. A £8.95. radical critique of the new government's Friedman, Steven, Long Journey, The. Written policy. 106pp. [1874863091]. by a team of analysts associated with the Apter & Rosberg, Political Development and the Centre for Policy Studies, Johannesburg, this New Realism in sub-Saharan Africa. Who (or book seeks to penetrate the fog surrounding what) is to be blamed for Africa's problems? the CODESA negotiations and draws out the A reassessment of past theories. 384pp, Pbk implications for the political future of South and Hbk. [0813914795] £45. Africa. Notes, 206pp, Pbk. Ravan Bradbury, Mark, Somali Conflict, The: Prospects [0869754440] £11.99. for Peace. Based on face to face research, this Kamama, Stanley, Road to Liberation, The: The pamphlet considers how peace can be en- Pan African Path. Surveys the political and forced, or built up. Maps, diagrams, index, ideological origins of Pan Africanism, the bibliography, A4 format. [0855982713] £9.95. legacy of Garvey, the 5th and 6th Pan Brewer, John D, Black and Blue: Policing in South African Congresses, and the period leading Africa. The colonial origins of the SA Police up to the 7th Congress. Annex. 79pp, pam- made it an oppressive part of the state phlet. ESSACK [] £6. apparatus. If it is to become a police service Kelly, Sean, America's Tyrant: The CIA and (for all) it needs major changes. 440pp, 43 Mobutu of Zaire. A survey of US policy and of tables. OUP [0198273827] £40. the rule of Mobutu, photos, map, notes, Brewer, John D, Restructuring South Africa. bibliography, index, 289pp. [1879383179] Assesses whether or not South Africa can be £29.95. brought to peace, social order and stability Lemarchand, Rene, Burundi. An analysis of the following the violence, chaos and disorder of history and politics of and Tutsi which the transition from apartheid. Cloth, 154 has engendered wholesale massacres. The pages, notes, bibliography, index. MAC institutional minority/majority conflict has [0333605918] £35. many parallels, does the author provide a Chazan & D, Civil Society and The State In glimpse of a solution? 200pp, Hbk. Africa. Some 15 chapters cover issues of [0521451760] £35. change, democracy, interest groups, civil Leys & Saul, Namibia's Liberation Struggle: The society dynamics, and the role of the state. Two Edged Sword. Critical survey of the They look at concepts of and challenges to struggle for liberation, and first achieve- civil society, and examine case studies in ments. Contents: diplomacy, lives in exile, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan, inside SWA, churches, students, policing, Tanzania, 350pp. L Rienner [155587360] war and peace, SWAPO in office, the legacy. £35.95. Maps, index, 320pp. [] £35. Chazan & Mortimer, Politics and Society in Mafeje, Archie, In Search of an Alternative: A Contemporary Africa. Second edition of a Collection of Essays on Revolutionary Theory highly praised student textbook which cov- and Practice. Essays on philosophy, the one ers structures, society, regimes, decision party state, history and prospects in South making, conflicts in elites, change, econo- Africa, nationalism, etc. Pbk,index, 121pp. mies, international relations, the year 2000, [0797410872] £9.95. South Africa, etc. Notes, appendices, index, Malawi: A Moment of Truth. A brief pamphlet 482pp, Pbk. MAC [0333578147] £15.99. surveying political developments. 32pp. CIIR Chabal, Patrick, Power in Africa. First Pbk [185287113X] £1.20. edition of this book which surveys theories Mandaza, Ibbo, Southern Africa in the Year 2000: and communities in African politics. Notes, An Overview and Research Agenda. A 16pp index, 311pp. [] £42.50. pamphlet. [1779050054] £3.25. 238 Review of African Political Economy

Mandela, Nelson, Speaks. This 1992 programme, two party politics, costs, collection provides perspectives on political conclusions. Notes, index, 278pp. [] £33.95. developments in South Africa since the Ranger & Olufemi, Legitimacy and the State in unbanning of the ANC - the process of 20th Century Africa. Eight essays. Three have negotiation, and responses to the right. African themes: empire and identity, tradi- Introduction, photos, notes, chronology, in- tion, the cold war. Five focus on Nigeria: dex. 280pp. Pathfinder [0873487745] £13.95. decolonisation, indirect rule, Christianity, Mazrui & Twaddle, Nationalism and New States Garveyism, pentecostalism. Notes, bibliog- in Africa: A Political History from 1935 to the raphy, index, 296pp, Hbk. [0333550781] £45. 90s. Second updated edition of this survey of Saul, John S, Recolonization and Resistance in African political and cultural development, Southern Africa. The 80s have been a decade 416pp, reading list, index, maps. Currey [] in which this region has been recaptured by £40. the international economic system: this is McGarry, Barry, Growth Without Equity? In the most clearly seen in the operation of the 80s the Zimbabwean state said it was work- Structural Adjustment programmes. Is ing for growth and equity. Is Structural recolonization a useful metaphor? 195pp Adjustment reversing that emphasis? 36pp [] [0865433909] £9.95. • £1.95. Simone, T Abdou M, In Whose Image? Political McHenry, Dean, Limited Choices: Tanzania's Islam and Urban Practices in Sudan. Looks at Political Struggle for Socialism. Examines at- the impact of Sudan's Islamic rulers attempts tempts to build socialism, impediments to to improve the lives of city dwellers in progress and disputes between pragmatic Khartoum, and considers the conflicts be- and ideological factions in the state, from the tween nobler aims and more violent prac- years of hope in the 60s in to the less hopeful tices. 272pp. [] £36.75. 80s. 325pp. [1555874290] £33.95. Wamwere, Koigi Wa, People's Representatives Meredith, Martin, South Africa's New Era — A and the Tyrants, The. 'Exposes the rot': a Guide To South Africa's 1994 Election. Exam- critical survey of Kenyan politics and of Moi, ines the election campaign, personalities, from the 70s onwards. 182pp.[] £9.95. results, etc. 160pp. [0749319100] £4.99. Widner, Jennifer, Economic Change and Political Munson, Henry, Jr, Religion and Power in Liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa. An ex- Morocco. Considers the symbolic historical amination of democratic politics in Africa tradition in Morocco, a history of sacred and of economic change: case studies (Benin, scholars and kings and their representation Cote D'lvoire, Kenya, Zaire, Tanzania, Ghana, of the goals and life of Islam. Against this Cameroon), general and theoretical background he provides insights in to the overviews. Pbk and Hbk, 304pp. current regime and the fundamentalist op- [080184844X] £14. position. 256pp [0300053762] £19.95. Weiss, Ruth, Zimbabwe and the New Elite. A Murray, Martin, South Africa: Time of Agony, study of government reconciliation policy Time of Destiny. A new updated edition of his and the development of a new power struc- study of the opposition to apartheid. [] ture in the new state, written by a journalist £34.95. with extensive contacts. Hbk, index, notes, Ninsin, Kwame A, Political Parties and Democ- bibliography, 251pp. [1850436924] £39.50. racy in Ghana's Fourth Republic. Fifteeen essays on aspects of Ghana's political life. Revolution/War Notes, 4 tables, 266pp. [9964978146] £14.95. Bhebe & Ranger, Soldiers in Zimbabwe's Libera- Oguibe, Olu, Democracy in Nigeria. Contains tion War. Essays on ZIPRA and ZANLA: contributions from Abiola, Mamdani, recruitment, military strategy, guerilla civil- Mensah, Babu, Soyinka et al. Pamphlet. 41pp ian relations, Rhodesian security forces, life []£3. after the war, the Mafela trust. Index. 320pp Olagunju & et al., Transition to Democracy in []£35. Nigeria. Offers perspectives on transition Bhebe &c Ranger, Society in Zimbabwe's Libera- under Babangida, ten chapters: politics and tion War. Beliefs, ideas and experiences contexts of change, transitional blueprints, before and after the war. Religious ideas, reports and government action, the 1987- justifications of brutality, novels, guerilla New Books 239

education in exile, gender and status, mobili- reintegration, needs, law, etc. 225pp zation and demobilization, civilian experi- [0813384605] £25. ences at the hands of the guerillas & the 5th Palmer, Andrew, Today's Refugees, Tomorrow's brigade. 320pp [] £35. Leaders. Report on a conference on Saharawi Cawthra, Gavin, War and Resistance. The strug- Women Refugees. Pamphlet, A4,36pp. [] £4. gle for Southern Africa as seen in the Register magazine. Fbk, 256pp. [0333597230] £16.95. Women and Gender Copson, Raymond W, Africa's Wars and Pros- Ardayf io-Schandorf, Elizabeth, Family and De- pects for Peace. 'An insightful assessment...' velopment in Ghana. Papers on methodology, H Johnstone. A survey, with a discussion of households, resources, laws, etc. 163pp. the costs of war, future prospects and [9964302207] £9.95. consideration of how outsiders might pro- Berkman, Joyce A, Healing Imagination of Olive mote peace. Maps, tables, references, index. Schreiner, The. A study of a famous writer 224pp [] £45. who developed socialist and feminist politi- Furley, O W, Conflict in Africa. Essays on arms cal ideas. 9 illustrations. 336pp [0870238361] and conflicts, written from varied academic £14.95. perspectives, looking at factors promoting Callaway & Creevey, Heritage of Islam, The: conflict. Hbk, 256pp. [1850436908] £39.95. Women, Religion and Politics in West Africa. Harding, Jeremy, Small Wars, Small Mercies. Does Islam hinder change and develop- Bears witness to individual experiences in ment? Are Muslim women's lives any worse the midst of liberation struggles such as than those of other women? Are they active those in Namibia, Angola and Eritrea in the as a group in politics? An examination of the 1990s. 472pp, maps. [0670833916] £17.99. history and sociology women in the region. Minnaar, Anthony, Patterns of Violence: Case 229pp, bibliography, 25 tables, Hbk and Pbk. Studies of Conflict in Natal. Eighteen essays: [1555872530] £29.95. general, theoretical and historical overviews, Kabira & et al., Democratic Change in Africa: and studies of violence in particular commu- Women's Perspective. Eleven essays: politics, nities. 264pp. [0796913471] £14.95. law, ideology and culture, violence, repro- Minter, William, Apartheid's Contras. Examines ductive rights, health, education, etc. Refer- the nature of the war against the states of ences, index, 147pp. [9966410546] £12.95. Angola and Mozambique: questions their Meena, Ruth, Gender in Southern Africa: Concep- causes, their backers, etc. Notes, map, bibli- tual and Theoretical Issues. Essays on research, ography, index, Hbk and Pbk, 320pp. [] methodologies, feminist theories, economic £39.95. theory and gender, sexuality and AIDS, Nyongo'o, P Anyang', Arms and Daggers in the etclndex, 201pp, Pbk. [0797411623] £10.95. Heart of Africa: Studies on Internal Conflicts. Meer, Fatima, Black Women Workers. Brings Essays on the origins and reasons which together research from over 1,000 interviews underlie conflict in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, and considers the place of women at work, Uganda, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Zambia, South relations with men, attitudes of employers Africa and Liberia. 364pp. [9966831134] etc. Index, 289pp, many photos and statistics. £18.50. Second revised edition. [0620131608] £9.95. Smock, David Vt.,Making War and Waging Peace:Turner, Terisa E, Arise Ye Mighty People: . Foreign Intervention in Africa. Case studies Gender, Class and Race in Popular Struggle. An evaluate the effects of interventions in An- anthology representing women's struggles gola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Namibia, Su- worldwide, with three chapters on Rastafar- dan, etc. 288pp, Pbk and Hbk. [] £28.95. ian movements, and two on Nigeria, poetry, etc. Bibliography, index, 273pp. [0865433011] Refugees/Migration £12.95. Adelman & Sorenson, African Refugees. Essays Uchendu, Patrick K, Role of Nigerian Women in on the OAU convention, legal dimensions, Politics, Past and Present. Pre-colonial society refugee determination, refugees in the Su- in Nigeria allowed women a dual-sex role. dan, Eritrea, refugees and rural develop- This was undermined by Victorian colonial ment, repatriation, spontaneous settlement, ideas, which still oppress women today. state schemes, forced repatriation, 124pp. [9781563680] £7.50. Review of African Political Economy No.60:240-307 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIXX6009

Current Africana 1992/3

Current Africana returns after many yearspublished by Edinburgh University Press. absence, and in a new form, dictated (as so often) by technology - in this case by I welcome comments on the arrangement, what is easiest done with bibliographic and notification of missing items. Send software. The listing covers much the these to me at the Department of Politics, same material as before, though it does 31 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh EH8 9JT not include dissertations. The bulk of the (e-mail address: [email protected]). items listed are from 1992, though some are from 1993: the next listing will in- Chris Allen clude the rest of 1993 and 1994. From then on, Current Africana will cover a year's publications.

The material is organised by region (ex- cept for Nigeria and South Africa, which have distinct sections), and within each region by five broad subject areas: Index

• Politics (which also includes current Africa General 240 affairs, international relations, and North Africa 256 some aspects of law); North- 258 • Economics and development East Africa 264 • Society and social welfare (which also West Africa (General+Francophone).. 271 includes gender, some anthropological Nigeria 277 material, health, urban studies, and Other West Africa 282 demographic studies); West Central Africa 285 • Rural economy (which also includes Central Africa 286 agriculture, food and famine studies); South Africa 291 • General and other material (which Other Southern Africa 302 also includes environmental and me- dia studies). Within these subject areas - which are admittedly crude - items are arranged alphabetically. Many of the items are Africa General chapters from books, and in many cases the books concerned are also listed. In (A) Politics these cases an abbreviated reference is given (editors and short title only), plus 1 Adadt, C Q, Russia, after the Cold War: the ex- Soviet media and Africa, Race and class, 35, 2 the number of the book itself. (1993) 86-95 2 Adam, H M, Frantz Fanon as a democratic theorist, For a detailed subject index, and for a African affairs, 92, 369 (1993) 499-518 listing covering a much wider range of 3 Agbaje, A, Culture, corruption and development, in Voices from Africa 4 (^567), 41-52 material, see the International African 4 Ageron, C R, Michel, M (eds), L'Afrique noire Institutes annual Africa Bibliography, francophone: l'heure des independances. Paris: Current Afriama 241

Ed. CNRS, 1992, 729pp Afrique 2000, 22 (2992) 49-54 5 Ajayi,} F A, The search for a new world order: an 26 Bangoura, D, Armies et difrs dimocratiques en African perspective, in Lundestad G & Westad, O A Afrique, Afrique 2000, 22 (2993) 222-22 (eds), Beyond the cold war: new dimensions in 27 Bangura, Y, Authoritarian rule and democracy in international relations (Oslo: Scandinavian Uni- Africa: a theoretical discourse, in Rudebeck L (ed), versity Press, 1993), 71-84 When democracy makes sense ("5-193), 69-104 6 Ajayi, JFA, Peel, JDY (eds), People and empires 28 Bangura, Y, Authoritarian rule and democracy in in African history: essays in memory of Michael Africa: a theoretical discourse, in Gibbon P & Crowder. London: Longman, 1992,254pp Bangura, Y (eds), Authoritarianism, democracy 6a Akindele, S T, Democratic transition in Africa: a and adjustment («a-88), 39-82 pyschological perspective, in Caron B et al (eds), 29 Bangura, Y, Gibbon, P, Adjustment, authoritarian- Democratic transition in Africa (ra-50), 83-100 ism and democracy in subsaharan Africa, in Gibbon 7 Allen, C, et al, Surviving democracy?. Review of P & Bangura, Y (eds). Authoritarianism, democ- African political economy, 54 (1992) 3-10 racy and adjustment ("3"88), 7-38 8 Amoo, S G, Role of the OAU: past, present and 30 Bashir, IL, The new world order and socio-political future, in Smock D R (ed), Making war and transition in Africa in the 1990s and beyond, in waging peace («5-203), 239-61 Caron B et al (eds). Democratic transition in 9 Amuwo, K, The international (and domestic) con- Africa («5-50), 405-22 text of democratic transition in Africa: road blocks to 32 Bayart, J F (ed), Religion et modernity politique democracy, in Caron B et al (eds), Democratic en Afrique noire. Paris: Karthala, 1993,312pp transition in Africa (ra-50), 3-27 32 Bayart, J F, La citi culturelle en Afrique noire, in 10 Anderson, D, Killingray, D (eds), Policing and Bayart} F (ed), Religion et modernite politique decolonisation: nationalism, politics and the (ra-31), 299-310 police. Manchester: Manchester UP, 1992,227pp 33 Bayart, J F,La politique africaine de la France: de 11 Ansprenger, F, Politische Geschichte Afrikas im Charybe a Scylla?, Politique africaine, 49 (2993) 20. Jahrhundert. Munich: Beck, 1992,208pp 133-36 12 Anyang Nyng'o, P, Accountability and civil soci- 34 Bayart,} F, Les iglises chritiennes et la politique du ety, in Doornbos M et al (eds), Beyond conflict in ventre, in Bayart} F (ed), Religion et modernite the Horn (^904), 227-22 politique (es-31), 229-60 23 Anyang' Nyong'o, P, The one-party state and its 35 Bayart, ] F, The state in Africa: the politics of the apologists, in Anyang' Nyong'o P (ed), 30 years of belly. London: Longman, 1993,370pp independence ("^236), 1-8 36 Bayart, J F, et al, La politique par le bas en 14 Ardener, E, The 'personal enemy' in African poli- Afrique noire: contributions a une tics, Journal of the Anthropological Society of problematique de la democratie. Paris: Karthala, Oxford, 24, 2 (1993) 105-110 1992, 268pp 15 Arms Project, Landmines: a deadly legacy. New 37 Beaux, N, Pour une nouvelle alliance Afrique- York: Human Rights Watch, 1993,510pp Europe. Paris: Futuribles, 1992,125pp 16 Ashworth, L, Fichardt, L, Writers and human rights 38 Beckman, B, Empowerment or repression? The abuses in Africa, Information trends, 5,1 (1992) World Bank and the politics of African adjustment, 3-29 in Gibbon P & Bangura, Y (eds), Authoritarian- 17 Ayele, S O, Human right in Africa: implication for ism, democracy and adjustment (**&%), 83-105 democratic transition, in Caron B et al (eds), 39 Beckman, B, The liberation of civil society: neoliberal Democratic transition in Africa ("3"50), 101-110 ideology and political theory, Review of African 18 Ayittey, G B N, Africa in the post-communist political economy, 58 (2993) 20-33 world, Problems of communism, 41, 1 (1992) 40 Beckman, B, Whose democracy? Bourgeois versus 207-212 popular democracy, in Rudebeck L (ed), When 19 Ayittey, G B N, Africa betrayed. Basingstoke: democracy makes sense ("a-193), 232-50 Macmillan, 1993,412pp 42 Bienen, H, Leaders, violence and the absence of 20 Ayittey, G, Les blocages du dtoeloppement africain, change in Africa, Political science quarterly, 108, Afrique 2000, 22 (1993) 75-97 2 (1993) 271-82 21 Babu, A M, Africa's interpretation of Soviet policy 42 Bluwey, G K, Democracy at bay: the frustrations of since perestroika: facing the challenge, Africa con- African liberals, in Caron B et al (eds), Democratic temporary record 1988/89, (2992) A169-75 transition in Africa («-50), 39-49 22 Bach, D C, Euro-African relations since the end of 43 Botha, P du T, The Soviet assessment of socialist • the Cold War, in Caron B et al (eds). Democratic orientation and the African response, in Kanet R E, transition in Africa ("350), 29-37 et al (eds), Soviet foreign policy in transition 23 Baechler, ], Des institutions dimocratiques pour (Cambridge: CUP, 1992), 180-95 I'Afrique, Revue juridique et politique, 46, 2 44 Boulaga, F E, Les conferences nationales: une (1992) 163-81 affaire a suivre. Paris: Karthala, 1993,229pp 24 Bakary, T D, Pour une approche non-partisane de la 45 Boutros Ghali, B, Les Nations Unies et VAfrique, dimocratie en Afrique, Afrique 2000,9 (2992) 27- Afrique 2000, 24 (2993) 5-27 35 46 Bratton, M, Rothchild, D, The institutional bases of 25 Balima, S A, Reflexions sur VAfrique et la dimocratie, governance in Africa, in Hyden G & Bratton, M 242 Review of African Political Economy

(eds), Governance and politics ("3"110), 263-84 (1992) 7-35 47 Bratton, M, van de Walk, N, Toward governance in 70Desfosses, H, The USSR and Africa in 1988: 'new Africa: popular demands and state responses, in thinking' and conflict resolution, Africa contem- Hyden G & Bratton, M (eds), Governance and porary record 1988/89, (2992,) A146-63 politics («3-110), 27-55 71 Diop, S, Du parti unique aux multiple partis, ou la 48 Brittain, V, Africa: a political audit, Race and democratie introuvable, Afrique contemporaine, class, 34,1 (1992) 41-49 264 (2992) 145-52 49 Briine, S, Unter Reformdruch: die franzosische 72 Djedjro, FM,la revision des constitutions dans les Afrikapolitik siidHch des Sahara, Afrika Jahrbuch Hats africaines francophones: equisse de bilan, 1991, 37-46 Revue du droit public, Jan-Fev. 1992,111-34 50 Caron, B, et al (eds), Democratic transition in 73 Dodge, C P, Raundalen, M, Reaching children in Africa. Ibadan: CREDU, 1992,436pp war. Uppsala: SIAS, 1992,146pp 51 Cell,} W,Hai\ey: a study in British imperialism. 74 Dow, H, Baker, J, Popular participation and Cambridge: CUP, 1992,320pp development: a bibliography on Africa and 52 Chabal, P, Power in Africa: an essay in political Latin America. Toronto: Toronto University, Cen- interpretation. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1992 (2nd tre for Urban and Community Studies, 1992,145pp edition), 311pp 75 Dowden, R, Reflections on democracy in Africa, 53 Chafer, T, French African policy: towards change, African affairs, 92, 369 (1993) 607-613 (review African affairs, 91, 362 (1992) 37-51 article) 54 Chalker, E, The proper role of government, in 76 du Bois de Gaudusson, J, Trente ans d'institutions Rimmer D (ed), Action in Africa (<&377), 23-28 constitutionelles et politiques - points de repere et 55 Chamley, S, et al, Africa: what chance for democ- interrogations, Afrique contemporaine, 264 racy?, Index on censorship, 11,4 (1992) 7-25 (2992) 50-58 56 Chazan, N, et al, Politics and society in contem- 77 Duffield, M, Famine, conflict and the internationaH- porary Africa. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1992 (2nd sation of public welfare, in Doornbos M et al (eds), edition), 483pp Beyond conflict in the Horn («r904), 49-66 57 Clapham, C, Democratisation in Africa: obstacles 78Dunne, P, Mohammed, N, Military spending in and prospects, Third world quarterly, 14, 3 subsaharan Africa: an econometric analysis. (1993) 423-38 Leeds: Leeds University, School of Business and 58 Clark, J F, Theoretical disarray and the study of Economic Studies, 1992,23pp democratisation in Africa, Journal of modern 79 Ekeh, P, The constitution of civil society in African African studies, 31, 3 (1993) 529-34 (review history and politics, in Caron B et al (eds), article) Democratic transition in Africa (^50), 187-212 59 Clough, M W, Free at last? US policy toward 80 Ellis, S, Democracy in Africa: achievements and Africa and the end of the Cold War. New York: prospects, in Rimmer D (ed), Action in Africa Council on Foreign Relations, 1992,143pp (•s-377), 133-43 60 Clough, M, The United States and Africa: the policy 81Fatton, ], Predatory rule: state and civil society of cynical disengagement, Current history, 91,565 in Africa. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 1992,165pp (1992) 193-198 82 Faure, Y, Democracy and realism: reflections on the 61 Coquery-Vidrovitch, C, L'etat contemporain en case of Cite d'lvoire, Africa, 63,3 (1993) 313-29 Afrique: heritage et creation, in Irele A (ed), 83 Foroutan, F, Regional integration in subsaharan African education and identity (ra-605), 283-92 Africa: experience and prospects. Washington: 62 Cowell, A, Killing the wizards: wars of power World Bank, 1992,42pp and freedom from Zaire to South Africa. New 84 Fulani, S A, UAfrique et le desarmement nucleaire York: Simon and Schuster, 1992,287pp rtgional, Afrique 2000, 9 (2992) 25-26 63 Crocker, C A, Afterword: strengthening African 85 Garcin, T, Les europeens et la democratisation peacemaking and peacekeeping, in Smock D R (ed). africaine, Afrique 2000,10 (1992) 19-26 Making war and waging peace («s-203), 263-70 86 Gaulme, F, Tribus, ethnies, frontieres, Afrique 64 Daly, C, Ethiopianisme et nationalisme en Afriaue contemporaine, 264 (2992) 43-49 noire, in Irele A (ed), African education and 87 Gibbon, P, Structural adjustment and pressures identity (>3-605), 284-208 towards multi-partyism in subsaharan Africa, in 65 Barman, M, Les Americains noirs et I'Afrique Gibbon P & Bangura, Y (eds), Authoritarianism, aujourd'hui: quelques points de repere, Afrique democracy and adjustment (^88), 127-66 contemporaine, 262 (2992) 27-33 88 Gibbon, P, Bangura, Y, et al (eds), Authoritarian- 66 Davidson, B, The Black man's burden; Africa ism, democracy and adjustment: the politics of and the curse of the nation-state. London: economic reform in Africa. Uppsala: Scandinavian Currey, 1992, 355pp Institute of African Studies, 1992,236pp 67 Davidson, B, Remembering Cabral, Review of 89 Glaser, A, Smith, S, Ces messieurs d'Afrique. Le African political economy, 58 (1993) 78-85 Paris - village du continent noir. Paris: Calmann- 68 de Benoist, J R, Les 'clercs'et la democratie, Afrique Levy, 1992, 235pp contemporaine, 2 64 (1992) 178-93 90 Glickman, H, Political leaders of contemporary 69 Decalo, S, The process, prospects and constraints of Africa South of the Sahara: a biographical democratisation in Africa, African affairs, 91,362 dictionary. New York: Greenwood, 1992,361pp Current Africana 243

91 Gonidec, P F, Democratic et developpement en 113 Ishemo, S, Amilcar Cabral's thought and practice; Afrique: perspectives internationdle et nationales, some lessons for the 1990s, Review of African Afrique 2000,14 (1993) 49-60 political economy, 58 (1993) 71-78 92 Gordon, D L, African politics, in Gordon A & D 114 Jeffries, R, The state, structural adjustment and (eds), Understanding contemporary Africa good government in Africa, Journal of Common- (ra-600), 51-85 wealth and comparative politics, 31, 1 (1993). 93 Hamrell, S, Nordberg, O (eds), The state and crisis 20-35 in Africa: in search of a second liberation. 115 Jenkins, J C, Kposowa, A J, The political origins and Report of the Mweya Conference in Uganda, African military coups: ethnic competition, military May 12-17, 1990. Uppsala: Dag Hammarskjold centrality and the struggle over the post-colonial Foundation, 1992, 32pp state, International studies quarterly, 36, 3 94 Hargreaves, J D, The Comintern and anticolonialism: (1992) 271-91 new research opportunities, African affairs, 92, 116 Ka Mana, Foi chre'tienne, crise africaine et 367 (1993) 255-61 reconstruction de 1'Afrique. Yaounde: Cle, 1992, 95 Hargreaves, J D, Habits of mind and forces of 220pp history: France, Britain and the decolonisation of 117 Ka Mana, L'Afrique va-t-elle mourir? Essai Africa, in Twaddle M (ed), Imperialism ("5»-210), d'ethique politique. Paris: Karthala, 1993,218pp 207-29 118 Kagalkar, P C, re-examined, 96 Harsch, E, Accumulators and democrats: challeng- India quarterly, 48,3 (1992) 73-84 ing state corruption in Africa, Journal of modern 119 Kawonise, S, Normative impediments to democratic African studies, 31,1 (1993) 31-48 transition in Africa, in Caron B et al (eds), 97 Haynes, ], The state, governance, and democracy in Democratic transition in Africa (^SO), 129-40 subsaharan Africa, Journal of modern African 120 Keller, E J, Political change and political research in studies, 31,3 (1993) 535-39 (review article) Africa: agenda for the 1990s,Issue, 20,1 (1992) 50- 98 Healey,J, Robinson, M, Democracy, governance 53 and economic policy: subsaharan Africa in 121 Keller, E J, Towards a new African order?, Africa comparative perspective. London: Overseas De- insight, 23,3 (1993) 124-28 velopment Institute, 1992,188pp 122 Kent, J, The internationalisation of colonialism: 99 Hellinger, D, US aid policy in Africa: no room for Britain, France and Black Africa 1939-1956. democracy, Review of African political economy, Oxford: Clarendon, 1992,365pp 55 (1992) 84-87 123 Klein, MA, Back to democracy: Presidential address 100 Henze, P B, Africa after communism, Problems of to the 1991 annual meeting of the African Studies communism, 41,1 (1992) 218-222 Association, African studies review, 35,3 (1992) 101 Herbst,}, The potential for conflict in Africa, Africa 1-12 insight, 22,2 (1992) 105-109 124 Kodjo, E, Le nouvel ordre mondial et I'Afrique, 102 Herbst, J, The United States in Africa 1988-89: a Afrique 2000,10 (1992) 5-17 very good year for , Africa 125 Kone, H, Circulation d'information et pluralisme: contemporary record 1988/89, (1992.) 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diversity and change in Letlhakeng village, chester: Manchester University, Dept. of Agricul- Botswana. Oslo: Senter for Utvikling og Milj0, tural Economics, 1992,17pp Oslo University, 1992,25pp 2657 Zinyama, L M, Local farmer organisations and 2640 Loewenson, R, Modern plantation agricul- rural development in Zimbabwe, in Taylor DRF & ture: corporate wealth and labour squalor. Mackenzie, F (eds), Development from within London: Zed, 1992,147pp (•a-564), 33-57 2641 Muir, A, Riddell, R, Evaluating the impact of 2658 Zinyama, L, Technology adoption and post-inde- NGOs in rural poverty alleviation: Zimbabwe pendence transformation of the small-scale farming country study. London: ODI, 1992,126pp sector in Zimbabwe, in Drakakis-Smith D (ed), 2642 Naldi, G /, Land reform in Zimbabwe: some legal Urban and regional change (<^2590), 180-202 aspects. 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Berlin: Geman Paris: Harmattan, 1992,286pp Development Institute, 1992,143pp 2663 Dube, P O, Notes on ecology and society in southern 2646 Page, SLJ, Page, H E, Western hegemony over Africa, in lrele A (ed), African education and African agriculture in Southern Rhodesia and identity (ra-605), 358-68 its continuing threat to food security in inde- 2664 George, N, Using radio for community mobilisa- pendent Zimbabwe. New York: SSRC, Project on tion: experiences in Zimbabwe and Kenya, Africa African Agriculture, 1992,19pp media review, 7,2 (1993) 52-68 2647 Pedersen, P O, Agricultural marketing and process-2665 Gore, C, et al, The case for sustainable develop- ing in small towns in Zimbabwe: Gutu and Gokwe, ment in Zimbabwe. 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Trenton: Africa 1992, 226pp World Press, 1992,266pp 2669 McLean, P E, Radio and rural development in 2651 Shaw, J, Clay, E, Lesotho: sustaining development Swaziland, Africa media review, 6, 3 (1992) 51- in in a small landlocked economy, in their, World 64 food aid: experiences of recipients and donors 2670Mushala,HM, Legislation and soil conservation in (London: Currey, 1993), 118-129 Sa)fl2i7a«d,UNISWA research journal, 6,1(1992) 2652 Simelane, H S, The colonial state, peasants and 10-114 agricultural production in Swaziland, South Afri-2671 Potts, D, The changing geography of southern can historical journal, 26 (1992) 93-115 Africa, in Chapman GP & Baker, K M (eds), The 2653 Simmons, C, Lyons, S, Rhetoric and reality: the changing geography of Africa («3"438), 12-51 management of Botswana's 1982-88 drought relief2672 Potts, D, Zimbabwe. Oxford: Clio (rev. ed'n), programme, Journal of international develop- 1993, 402pp ment, 4, 6 (1992) 607-631 2673Rambanapasi, C, The political economy of public 2654Spurling, A, et al, Agricultural research in participation in planning in pluralist societies: the southern Africa: a framework for action. Wash- case of Zimbabwe, Geoforum, 23,1 (1992) 95-104 ington: World Bank, 1992, 61pp 2674 van Hoof, P, Rural development policy, regional 2655Weiner, D, Murphy, M, Differential vulnerability development planning, and decentralisation in Bot- to severe agricultural drought in Zimbabwe, East- swana, in Drakakis-Smith D (ed). Urban and ern and southern Africa geographical journal, regional change ("s-2590), 147-79 3,1 (1992) 13-33 2675 Whiteside, A, Labour flows, refugees, AIDS and the 2656 Young, T, Hamdoh, A A, The effects of change in environment, in Maasdorp G & Whiteside, A (eds), household composition on consumption: Towards a post-apartheid future (|S'2668), 155- Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. Man- 73 + Africa Resource Guide This Third World Resources guide includes information on international nongovernmental organizations whose primary concerns are the nations and people of the African continent. For information on organizations for whom this region is just one among many concerns, see the other resource directories and guides compiled and published by Third World Resources. This Africa guide is divided into four regional sections: Africa (general), North and West Africa, East and Central Africa, and Southern Africa. 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Beresford Rd., London N5 Eritrean Relief Committee, 1325 Thought, c/o CRIDSSH, Univ International Committee against Pan-African Centre for Research South African Labour Bulletin. • 5HS, England. 15 St., NW, Washington, DC ofOran,B.P.1524,EI Racism, 2211 Church Ave., on Peace, Development and United Nations Economic Research and Information Centre 20005, USA. Tel: (202) 387- M'Nouer, Oran, Algeria. Tel: Rm. 207, Brooklyn, NY 11226, Human Rights, c/o Department Commission for Africa, P.O. on Eritrea, Via della Dogana 5001. Fax: (202) 387-5006. 39.70.50. USA. Tel: (212) 287-4325. of Political Science, Univ of Box 3001, Addis Ababa, Vecchia 5,00186 Rome, Italy. Ethiopian Community Human Rights Watch/Africa, 485 International Committee of African Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria. Tel: Ethiopia. Tel: 794.6137. Eritrea Development Council, 1038 S. Fifth Ave., New York, NY Women for Development (042)771-920. PACREP Washington Office on Africa, 110 Information. 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Tel: Africa Inst of S. Africa, P.O. Box Zimbabwe. Tel: 50311/2. Fax: Mozambique Solidarity Office, Ghana Human Rights Group, 42 (01422) 845 827. E-mail: (419) 634-3666. SPSC Letter. 630, Pretoria 0001, S.Africa. 52979. EDICESA News. P.O. Box 2284, Chicago, IL Hemberton Rd., London SW9, sudanupdate@gn. apc.org. Togolese League for Human Africa Resource Project, P.O. Box Educational Resources 60690-2284, USA. Tel: (312) England. Tanzania Media Women's Assn, Rights, 178 Boulevard du 13 296, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Information Service (ERIS), 660-8671. Baobab Notes: Libyan Committee to Defend P.O. Box 6143, Dar es Salaam, Janvier B.P. 23 02, Lome, African-American Institute, Univ of Natal, Resource News and Views from Democracy and Human Rights, Tanzania. Tel: 29089. Fax: Togo. Southern African Training Centre, Rm. 307, Memorial Mozambique and Southern P.O. Box 2762, Eugene, OR 41905. SautiyaSiti. Tunisian League for Human Program, 833 United Nations Tower Bldg., King George V Africa. 97402-0302, USA. Uganda Media Women's Assn, Rights, 1, rue du Canada, Plaza, New York, NY 10017, Ave., Durban 4001, South Mozambique, Angola, and Guin§ Libyan Human Rights P.O. Box 681, Kampala, Tunis, Tunisia. USA. Tel: (212) 350-2969. Fax: Africa. Tel: (031) 816-2090. Information Centre, 34 Percy Commission, 2 Massachusetts Uganda. Tunisian National Women's (212) 682-6036. SASPOST. Fax: (031) 261-6880. E-mail: St., London W1P9FG, Ave.,NE, Box 2535, Women's Research and Union, 56, Boulevard Bab American Friends Service karlsson @ mtb.und.ac.za. England. Tel: (0171) 636-7108. Washington, DC 20013-2535, Documentation Project, P.O. Benat, Tunis, Tunisia. Tel: Committee, Southern Africa Federation of Dominicans of Namibia Information Service, P.O. USA. Tel: (202) 347-1985. Box 35185, Univ of Dares 260.181. Fax: 567131. Program, 1501 Cherry St., Southern Africa, P.O. Box 106, Box 43234, Washington, DC Maghreb Centre for Research and Salaam, Dares Salaam, West Africa Publishing, 43-45 Philadelphia, PA 19102, USA. Hilton 3245, South Africa. Tel: 20010, USA. Tel: (202) 462- Information, P.O. Box 451, Sta. Tanzania. ColdharbourLane, Tel: (215) 241-7169. (03321)5285. Grace and Truth. 8197. Namibia News Update. Programme for Development Southern Africa Resource Center, 729152. Fax: 729152. Studies /ASC Newsletter/ sswisher@ux1. cso.uiuc.edu. Research (PRODDER), P.O. c/o Peace Center, 2025 Women in Development Research African Monograph. Council on African Studies, . CURRICULUM Box 32410, Braamfontein 2107, NicolletAve., No. 203, Unit, Centre for Inter-Racial African Studies Instructional Outreach Program, 89 Trumbell African Studies Handbook. Edited South Africa. Fax:9-27-11 Minneapolis, MN 55404, USA. Studies, Box M.P. 167, Mount Materials Center, Univ of St., Box 14A, Yale Sta., New by Margaret Maxwell. Amherst: 4032353. PRODDER Tel: (612) 870-1501. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe. Wisconsin at Madison, 1220 Haven, CT 06520, USA. Tel: Univ of Massachusetts, School Newsletter. Southern Africa Support and Zimbabwe Institute of Linden Dr., Madison, Wl (203) 432-3438. Fax: (203) of Education, Center for South African Council of Information Center, 802 N. Development Studies, P.O. 53706, USA. Tel: (608) 263- 432-3272. International Education, 1983. Churches, Home and Family Homewood Ave., 2nd floor, Box 880, Harare, Zimbabwe. 2171. Fax: (608) 262-6998. E- James S. Coleman African 3rd ed. 221 pp. Life, Women's Desk, P.O. Box Pittsburgh, PA 15208, USA. Zimbabwe Women's Resource mail: [email protected]. Studies Center, Univ of Curriculum Materials for 4921,Johannesburg 2000, Tel: (412) 361-3022. Centre and Network, Stemar Afro-American Studies Resource California, Los Angeles, 405 Teachers. Urbana: Center for South Africa. Southern African Literature House, Rm. 203, Comer Speke Center, Dept. of Afro-American Hilgard Ave., Los Angeles, CA African Studies, Univ of Illinois, South African Exchange Program Society, P.O. Box 20923, Ave. and Kaguvi St., Harare, Studies, Howard Univ, PO Box 90024-1310, USA. Tel: (310) 1987.2nd ed. 350pp. on Environmental Justice, 6 Bontleng, Gaborone, Zimbabwe. 746, Washington, DC 20059, 825-2877. Fax: (310) 206- Introductory Guide to Africa. Goodrich Rd., No. 2, Jamaica Botswana. Tel: 37.30.25. USA. Tel: (202) 806-7242. 3555. E-mail: huckaby® Edited by Esther Wyss. Plain, MA 02130, USA. Tel: Southern African Research and Assn of African Studies Programs, others.sscnet.ucla.edu. African Cambridge, Mass.: Unitarian (617) 983-2239. Fax: (617) Documentation Centre EDUCATIONAL Univ of S. Carolina, Dept. of Arts /Journal of African Universalist Service 983-2240. E-mail: (SARDC), P.O. Box 5690, Government and International Studies I Studies in African .SERVICES Committee, 1990.251pp. [email protected]. Harare, Zimbabwe. Tel: (263-4) Studies, Columbia, SC 29208, Linguistics I Ufahamu. Africa in the School and Lesson Plans on African History Southern Africa Information 738-695. Fax: (263-4) 738-693. USA. Tel: (803) 777-3108. Outreach Program for N.African Community, Boston Univ, 270 and Geography: A Teaching Access, 3812 Fulton St., NW, E-mail: [email protected]. AASP Newsletter. and Near Eastern Studies, Univ Bay State Rd., Boston, MA Resource. Robert E. Hamilton, Washington, DC 20007-1344 SouthScan, P.O. Box 724, London Center for African Studies, Dal- of Michigan, 144 Lane Hall, 02215, USA. Tel: (617) 353- ed. Gainesville: Center for USA. Tel: (202) 337-8554. Fax: N16 5RZ, England. Fax: +44- housie Univ, Halifax, NS B3H Ann Arbor, Ml 48109, USA. 7303. Fax: (617) 353-4975. African Studies, Univ of (202) 337-8911. E-mail: 71359-2443. Southern Africa 4H6, Canada. Tel: (902) 494- Tel: (313) 764-0350. Florida, 1992.88pp. [email protected]. Monthly Regional Bulletin; African Studies Assn, Emory Univ, 3814. Fax: (902) 494-2319. Scandinavian Institute of African Credit Union Bldg, Atlanta, GA Mozambique: Apartheid's Second Southern Africa Media Center, Southscan: A Bulletin of Center for African Studies, Studies, Dragarbrunnsgatan 30322, USA. Tel: (404) 329- Front. A Resource Kit. Ottawa: 149 Ninth St., Rm. 420, San Southern African Affairs. Stanford Univ, 200 Encina Hall, 24,Box1703,S-75147 6410. African Studies Review/ Cooperation Canada Mozam- Francisco, CA 94103, USA. Toronto Committee for the Stanford, CA 94305-6055, Uppsala, Sweden. Tel: ASA News. bique (COCAMO), 1988. Tel: (415) 621-6196. Liberation of Southern Africa, USA. Tel: (415) 723-0295. Fax: 46(0)1815-54-80. Fax: African Studies Center, Boston Step Into Africa. Jan White. Southern Africa Media Education 6031/2 Parliament St., (415) 725-2592. E-mail: hf.cmy. 46(0)1869-56-29.SMS Univ, 270 Bay State Rd., 4th Denver, Colo.: Center for Project, c/o TransAfrica, 585 Toronto, ON M4X1P9, Center for African Studies, Univ of Newsletter. floor, Boston, MA 02215, USA. Teaching International Eighth St., SE, Rm. 200, Canada. Tel: (416) 967-5562. Florida, 427 Grinter Hall, Southwest Asia and North African Tel: (617) 353-3673. Fax: (617) Relations, Univ of Denver, Washington, DC 20003, USA. E-mail: [email protected]. Gainesville, FL 32611-2037, Program, State Univ of New 353-4975. 1989. Tel: (202) 547-2550. Southern Africa Report. USA. Tel: (904) 392-2187. Fax: YorkatBinghamton, African Studies Center, Michigan Southern Africa Political Economy Transformation Resource Center, (904) 392-9605. Irohin: Bringing Binghamton, NY 13901, USA. For the names and addresses of State Univ, 100 Center for Series Trust (SAPES), P. Box P.O. Box 1388, Maseru 100, Africa to the Classroom. Tel: (607) 798-2212. additional US organizations with International Programs, East MP111, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Lesotho. Tel: 31.44.63. Work Center for African Studies, Univ of SPICE Africa Project, Stanford materials on Africa see the Lansing, Ml 48824-1035, USA. Zimbabwe. Tel: 727 875. Fax: for Justice. Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Univ, 300 Lasuen St., Directory of African and African- Tel: (517) 353-1700. Fax: (517) 732 735. E-mail: sapes@ Women and Law in Southern 210 International Studies Bldg., Littlefield Center, Rm. 14, American Studies in the US, 336-1209. E-mail: mango.apc.org. Southern Africa Research Project, P.O. 910 S. Fifth St., Urbana.IL Stanford, CA 94305-5013, compiled by Annemarie Christy. [email protected]. Rural Africa Political and Economic Box UA171, Union Ave., 61820, USA. (217) 333-6335. USA. Tel: (415) 723-4581. Fax: Atlanta: African Studies Assn Africana/African Urban Monthly. Harare, Zimbabwe. Tel: Fax: (217) 244-2429. E-mail: • (415)723-6784. Press, 1993.8th ed. 170pp. Studies /Northeast African •J Black Africa: A Comparative Illinois Film Center, Univ of CA 94612-2297 USA. $63 (plus Univ of Bristol for African Inter Press Service Africa REFERENCE j Handbook. Donald G. Morrison Illinois, 1985. $2 postage outside North Studies Assn of the U.K., 1986. Bulletins. IPS Africa BOOKS j et al. New York: Paragon Films and Video for Black Studies.America). In California add $5 tax 85 pp. Headquarters, P.O. Box 6050, J House, 1989.2nd ed. 716pp. Compiled and edited by per book. Directory of Resources on Harare, Zimbabwe. Various Africa Bibliography: Works on Cloth. publications. Rebecca A. Hodges. Univ See also: Southern Africa. Evanston, III.: Africa Published During 1989. Park, Pa.: Black Studies Africa Network, March 1988. Handbooks to the Modem World: Africa: A Guide to Reference Review of African Political Edited by Hector Blackhurst. Program and Audio-Visual 30pp. Africa. Sean Moroney, ed. New Material. John Mcllwaine. Economy. ROAPE Manchester and New York: Services, Pennsylvania State York: Facts on File, 1989.2 Oxford and New York: Hans Directory of South African Publications, P.O. Box 678, Manchester Univ Press, 1990. Univ, 1987.24 pp. vols. Cloth. Zell Publishers, March 1993. Resource Centres. Durban: Sheffield S11BF, England. 421pp. Distributed in North Dictionary of the African Left: Media Network's Guide to Films xxxv + 507pp. Cloth. Educational Resource Southern Africa Review of Books. America by St. Martin's Press. on Apartheid and the Southern Information Service, Media Robert Vicat Ltd., 25A Parties, Movements and Africa: Human Rights Directory Africa South of the Sahara. African Region. New York: Resource Centre, 1993. Greencroft Gardens, South Groups. D.I. Ray. Aldershot: and Bibliography. Laurie London: Europa Publications, Media Network, August 1985. Looseleaf. Hampstead, London NW6 3LN, Dartmouth Publishing, 1989. vi Wiseberg et al. Ottawa: Human 1971-.Annual. 12 pp. England. + 273 pp. Rights Internet, Univ of Ottawa, International Guide to African The African Business Handbook: Political Leaders of the Video Catalogue: Africa. Durban: 1989.308pp. Studies Research. Edited by Third Worid Resources: A A Practical Guide to Business Educational Resources the International African Quarteriy Review of Resources Contemporary Middle East and Africa in the Classroom. Oakland, Resources for U.SJAfrica Information Service, May 1992. Institute. Compiled by Philip from and about the Third North Africa: A Biographical Calif.: Third Worid Resources, Trade and Investment. Michael 102pp. Baker. New York, London, Worid. Third World Resources, Dictionary. Edited by Bernard 1994.1-page resource guide. E. M. Sudarkasa. Washington, Munchen, Paris: K.G. Saur, 46419 St., Oakland, CA Reich. Westport, Conn. Video Catalogue: Environmental $1. D.C.: 21st Century Africa, Inc., Greenwood Press, 1990. Cloth. October 1987.264pp. Cloth. 94612-2297 USA. Studies. Edited by The African Book World & Press: 1993.2nd ed. 404pp. War or Peace in the Horn of Voices from Africa. UN Non- Southern Africa: Annual Review Nomanthamsanqa Booi. A Directory. Edited by Hans African States and Rulers: An Africa? Oakland, Calif.: Third Governmental Liaison Service 1987/88. Christopher Pycroft Durban: Educational Zell. New York: K.G.Saur, Encyclopedia of Native, World Resources, 1993.1- (NGLS), Palais des Nations, and Barry Munslow with Mark Resources Information Service, 1989.340pp. Colonial and Independent Adams. London, Munich, and September 1992.109pp. page resource guide. $1. CH1211 Geneva 10, African Studies Information States and Rulers Past and New York: Hans Zell Switzerland. • Video Resource List. Boston: Resources Directory. Compiled Present. John Stewart. Publishers, 1990.2 vols. Cloth. Africa in the School and and edited by Jean E. Meeh Jefferson, N.C.: McFarland, PERIODICALS The United States in Africa: A • Community, 1993.12pp. Gosebrink. New York, London, 1989. xx+ 395 pp. Historical Dictionary. David MOnchen, Paris: K.G. Saur, Many of the organizations listed African Studies Companion. H.M. Shavit. Westport, Conn.: DIRECTORIES 1986.572pp. Cloth. above have noteworthy Zell. Oxford: Hans Zell Greenwood Press, 1989. ! Beyond Safaris: A Guide to periodicals with regional coverage Publishers, 1989.x+ 165 pp. 298pp. Cloth. AND GUIDES Building People-to-People Tiesof Africa. See also: African Women: A General Who's Who in Africa: Leaders for with Africa. Kevin Danaher. Africa Recovery. UN Department Bibliography, 1976-1985. the 1990s. Alan Rake. Africa-related print and audio- Lawrenceville, N.J.: Africa of Public Information, Compiled by Davis A. Metuchen, N.J. and London: visual resources are listed and Worid Press, 1991.193pp. Communications and Project Bullwinkle. Westport, Conn.: Scarecrow Press, 1992. vii + described throughout the Third Contact: Africa. A Directory of Management Division, United Greenwood Press, 1989. 448 pp. Cloth. Worid Resource Directory, 1994- Organizations in Washington, Nations, Rm. S-3362, United THIRD WORLD 334pp. 1995, an 800-page directory D.C. Involved in African Affairs. Nations, NY 10017 USA. The Atlas of African Affairs, leuan compiled and edited by Thomas Washington, D.C: African- Africa Today. Graduate School of RESOURCES LL Griffiths. London and New AUDIOVISUALS P. Fenton and Mary J. Heffron. An affiliate of the Data Center American Institute, 1992. International Studies, Univ of York: Routledge, 1993.2nd ed. Fjjm ~andWeoResmces about Available from Third Worid 464 19th Street, Oakland, CA A Directory of British Africanists. Denver, Denver, CO 80208 233pp. Resources, 46419 St., Oakland, Africa. Champaign, III.: Univ of R. Hodder-Williams. Bristol: USA. 94812, (510)835-4692:536-1876