Long Term Planning Process Anglia Route Study EB/045 March 2016 Contents March 2016 Network Rail – Anglia Route Study 02 Foreword 03 Executive Summary 04 Chapter 1: Background 13 Chapter 2: Consultation 16 Chapter 3: The Starting Point 24 Chapter 4: A Strategy for Growth - Conditional Outputs 40 Chapter 5: Meeting the Conditional Outputs 58 Appendix A: Cross-Boundary Approach 94 Appendix B: Option Assessment 98 Appendix C: Appraisal Tables 109 Appendix D: Anglia WRCCA Action Plan 117 Glossary 120 Executive Summary March 2016 Network Rail – Anglia Route Study 04 This document, part of the Long Term Planning 0.1 Introduction • The West Anglia Main Line (WAML) runs between London Liverpool Street and Kings Lynn and carries busy commuter and Process (LTPP), considers the potential outputs The Anglia Route Study seeks to establish the required future leisure traffic from Stansted Airport and Cambridge into London capacity and capability of the railway through a systematic analysis required by the railway network within the Anglia Liverpool Street. It has the potential for significant housing and of the future requirements of the network. It seeks to accommodate employment growth and connects world-leading centres for Route in Control Period 6 (2019-2024), as well as the conditional outputs articulated in the Long Term Planning biosciences and technology. further ahead up to the year 2043. It offers Process (LTPP) Market Studies, whilst maintaining and where funders sets of choices as to how those outputs possible improving operational performance, at a cost acceptable • The Orbital Routes, which include the North London Line (NLL) might be met, having regard to value-for-money, to funders and stakeholders. and Gospel Oak to Barking line (GOB), constitute a vital part of London’s transport infrastructure and a major link between key The baseline for the Anglia Route Study has been updated following affordability and efficient delivery. arterial routes to and from the capital. They provide a nationally Sir Peter Hendy’s review of the Control Period 5 (CP5: 2014-2019) important freight route delivering connections from the Thames Enhancement Programme. This results in some elements of the Estuary ports and the Port of Felixstowe. The lines connect with baseline being delivered in Control Period 6 (CP6: 2019 - 2024). The every arterial route north, east and west of London and with options within the study represent a longer term view over the parts of the southern railway network. context of the next 30 years and therefore have not been impacted. It is recognised that the baseline used for the Route Study still has • The Essex Thameside route runs from London Fenchurch Street potential to change with the ongoing East Anglia Franchise process to Shoeburyness and carries a mixture of commuter and leisure and agreement on the future train service. traffic along with substantial freight movements to and from the ports at Tilbury and London Gateway. Should any influences significantly change the outputs of, and options identified within, the strategy, we will review and update it Figure 0.1 sets out the study area. accordingly as part of the ongoing process to maintain its validity. 0.3 Anglia Growth 0.2 Scope The East of England has the fastest growth in employment in The Anglia Route Study area covers five key corridors through England outside London and contributes significantly to the UK Greater London, Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Norfolk, as well economy. The Route Study identifies options for development of the as having two of the UK’s largest ports at London Gateway and the train service and railway infrastructure to continue to support this Port of Felixstowe. growth, in response to the range of conditional outputs relevant to Anglia outlined in the Market Studies. It should be emphasised that • The Great Eastern Main Line (GEML) runs between London these conditional outputs are aspirations and not Liverpool Street and Norwich and carries key commuter flows recommendations. They are conditional on being deliverable in a into London, a fast-growing long distance flow connecting manner which represents value-for-money and which is affordable world-leading centres for biosciences, engineering and to funders. renewable energy, as well as a significant amount of freight generated by the port of Felixstowe. The forecast growth in passenger demand is significant across all main service groups in the region. • The Cross country corridor via Ely supports a nationally important freight route between the Port of Felixstowe and Since the publication of the draft for consultation, we have worked other regions such as the Midlands, Yorkshire and Scotland with Transport for London (TfL) to understand how changes to alongside busy inter-regional passenger services. forecast housing and population and changes to the structure of TfL’s public transport forecasting model, Railplan, have affected predicted growth in rail patronage on the Anglia route. Executive Summary March 2016 Network Rail – Anglia Route Study 05 Figure 0.1 Anglia Route Map KINGS LYNN SHERINGHAM CROMER LNE Route LNE Route East Midlands Route Whitemoor PETERBOROUGH Yard NORWICH GREAT YARMOUTH THETFORD LOWESTOFT Great Eastern Main Line ELY Cross country corridor via Ely BURY ST EDMUNDS Haughley Jn West Anglia Main Line CAMBRIDGE SAXMUNDHAM Sizewell Orbital Routes STOWMARKET Essex Thameside WESTERFIELD IPSWICH Ipswich yard Felixstowe Port FELIXSTOWE STANSTED AIRPORT Harwich Parkeston Quay SUDBURY BISHOPS STORTFORD HARWICH TOWN MANNINGTREE HITCHIN COLCHESTER STEVENAGE MARKS HERTFORD BRAINTREE TEY EAST WALTON-ON-THE-NAZE BROXBOURNE COLCHESTER TOWN CHESHUNT WITHAM ENFIELD TOWN CHELMSFORD CLACTON-ON-SEA EDMONTON GREEN SOUTHMINSTER SHENFIELD TOTTENHAM WICKFORD CHINGFORD HARRINGAY GREEN LANES HALE CROUCH HILL SOUTH FINSBURY TOTTENHAM East Midlands Route PARK ROMFORD Junction Cricklewood Road Jn LNE Route Curve Jn GOSPEL Forest SOUTHEND VICTORIA OAK Clapton Gate Jn LNW Route Jn BARKING UPMINSTER PITSEA Temple Mills SHOEBURYNESS Carlton HIGHBURY DALSTON East Woodgrange Park Jn SOUTHEND Road Jn & ISLINGTON CANONBURY KINGSLAND HACKNEY DNS Jn Lea Jn CENTRAL LNE Route Thames Haven LNW Route EUSTON STRATFORD East London KINGS MOORGATE Tilbury International Rail Freight Terminal Line CROSS Bow Jn WEST HAM MARYLEBONE ST PANCRAS LIVERPOOL STREET TILBURY TOWN WILLESDEN INTERNATIONAL long siding Tilbury Freight Acton Wells Jn JUNCTION Container Terminal PADDINGTON Western Route LUL District Line New Kew Gas Factory Jn High Speed One Jn Sussex Route FENCHURCH STREET LIMEHOUSE New Kew East Jn CLAPHAM BLACKFRIARS Wessex Route JUNCTION RICHMOND Executive Summary March 2016 Network Rail – Anglia Route Study 06 Table 0.1 Increase in morning peak passenger demand into London Termini or at the busiest point on the route from 2013 Corridor 2023 2043 Great Eastern Norwich and Outer suburban services 32% 75% Great Eastern Inner suburban and Crossrail services 52% 83% West Anglia Main Line – all services 18% 39% North London Line/ West London Line 22% 55% Gospel Oak to Barking 20% 46% Essex Thameside 13% 46% Source: L&SE Market study and TfL Railplan Figure 0.2 Freight conditional outputs - Freight growth per commodity 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 net tonne km millions 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2011-12 2023-24 2033-34 2043-44 Year Ports intermodal Domestic Intermodal Construction materials Other Engineering Executive Summary March 2016 Network Rail – Anglia Route Study 07 We found that, overall, growth in forecast demand on the West and Peterborough, such as increased capacity on the Felixstowe Anglia Main Line was slightly lower than we used in the draft branch document and growth on Essex Thameside was slightly higher. We remodelling of Bow Junction at Stratford decided to keep the forecasts in the draft document as they are • broadly consistent, as a reasonable test of the infrastructure in the • remodelling of Ely North Junction long term. The changes in forecast growth are unlikely to change electrification of the Gospel Oak to Barking line, which will the strategy for catering for passengers in the medium and long • enable the more efficient operation of passenger services and term. support development of an electrified freight network, to allow The forecast increase in peak passenger demand is limited in that it the operation of electric freight services does not fully take into account the latest understanding of housing the London Overground capacity improvement programme, growth potential on the route. In particular, the methodology for • which has seen trains on the NLL lengthened from 4-car to 5-car estimating background passenger growth does not take into account the circular effect of improved services on the viability of • initial implementation of the National Operating Strategy additional housing, economic regeneration and the resultant (NOS), which will eventually have all signalling control on the increase in passenger demand and requirement for improved route located at the Romford Rail Operating Centre (ROC) connectivity. Choices for CP6 have been developed based on the capacity enhancements in the Lea Valley to enable an increase demand forecasts and on further evidence provided by • in services running to Stratford. stakeholders on the growth potential of the route. 0.5 Process Anglia provides nationally important freight routes particularly for intermodal port traffic from the Port of Felixstowe and London The starting point for this Route Study is the Market Studies