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Impact of Weather Conditions on Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

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Impact of Weather Conditions on Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences 2020; 24: 9753-9759 Impact of weather conditions on incidence and mortality of COVID-19 pandemic in Africa S.A. MEO1, A.A. ABUKHALAF1, A.A. ALOMAR1, T.W. ALJUDI1, H.M. BAJRI1, W. SAMI2, J. AKRAM3, S.J. AKRAM4, W. HAJJAR5 1Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 2Department of Public Health, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan 3Department of Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan 4Akram Medical Complex, Lahore, Pakistan 5Department of Thoracic Surgery, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Abstract. – OBJECTIVE: The weather-relat- CONCLUSIONS: Increase in relative humid- ed conditions change the ecosystem and pose ity and temperature was associated with a de- a threat to social, economic and environmental crease in the number of daily cases and deaths development. It creates unprecedented or un- due to COVID-19 pandemic in various African anticipated human health problems in various countries. The study findings on weather events places or times of the year. Africa is the world’s and COVID-19 pandemic have an impact at Afri- second largest and most populous continent can regional levels to project the incidence and and has relatively changeable weather condi- mortality trends with regional weather events tions. The present study aims to investigate the which will enhance public health readiness and impact of weather conditions, heat and humidity assist in planning to fight against this pandemic. on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 pan- demic in various regions of Africa. Key Words: MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this study, 16 COVID 19, Weather, Temperature, Humidity, Preva- highly populated countries from North, South, lence, Mortality, Africa. East, West, and Central African regions were selected. The data on COVID-19 pandemic in- cluding daily new cases and new deaths were recorded from World Health Organization. The Introduction daily temperature and humidity figures were ob- tained from the weather web “Time and Date”. The “Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome The daily cases, deaths, temperature and hu- Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection” has midity were recorded from the date of appear- caused the COVID-19 pandemic, which has in- ance of first case of “Severe Acute Respiratory volved the entire world with many upsetting Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” in the 1 African region, from Feb 14 to August 2, 2020. consequences on public health and economies . RESULTS: In African countries, the daily ba- In comparison to some similar pandemics which sis mean temperature from Feb 14, 2020 to Au- have occurred before, such as “Severe Acute Re- gust 2, 2020 was 26.16±0.12°C, and humidity spiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-1), was 57.41±0.38%. The overall results revealed a and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coro- significant inverse correlation between humidi- navirus (MERS-CoV)”, this pandemic has been ty and the number of cases (r= -0.192, p<0.001) more widespread2. On August 22, 2020, it in- and deaths (r= -0.213, p<0.001). Similarly, a sig- nificant inverse correlation was found between volved 216 countries, and has infected 22,812,491 3 temperature and the number of cases (r= -0.25, people with a mortality rate of 7,95,132 (3.48%) . p<0.001) and deaths (r=-0.18, p<0.001). Further- The highly contagious nature of the disease more, the regression results showed that with and pandemic situation has first developed an 1% increase in humidity the number of cases extraordinary instable and threatened situation and deaths was significantly reduced by 3.6% in the world. The transmission of this pandemic and 3.7% respectively. Congruently, with 1°C in- crease in temperature, the number of cases and and its subsequent incidence and mortalities have deaths was also significantly reduced by 15.1% continued worldwide. There is great debate on the and 10.5%, respectively. weather conditions, impact of heat and humidity Corresponding Author: Sultan Ayoub Meo, MBBS, Ph.D; e-mail: [email protected]/ [email protected] 9753 S.A. Meo, A.A. Abukhalaf, A.A. Alomar, T.W. Aljudi, H.M. Bajri, et al on the incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 Suez and the Red sea to the northeast, the Indian pandemic4. More recently, a few published stud- ocean to the southeast and the Atlantic ocean to ies4,5 demonstrated that warm weather and hu- the west. It covers 6% of Earth’s total surface area midity may change the epidemiological trends of and 20% of its land area. There are 54 states in COVID-19 pandemic, which has already infected Africa, an approximate population of 1.3 billion over 22 million people worldwide3. people, 17 % of the total world population with The SARS-CoV-2 infection can be transmit- median age is of 19.7 years7,8. ted through aerosols, large droplets, or direct In this study, from 54 African countries, we se- contact with secretions or fomites, the effects of lected 16 countries including, South Africa, Gha- different environmental factors on the incidence na, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Kenya, of COVID-19 remain to be clarified. The climate Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Niger, Somalia, conditions have an impact on air, water, soil, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar” ecosystem, feelings behaviors6, and pattern of (Figure 1). These countries are highly populated health and disease2. The present study aimed to in the region, have relatively changeable weath- investigate the impact of weather conditions, heat er conditions, socioeconomic culture and health and humidity on the daily basis incidence and care problems. The data on COVID-19 pandemic, mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic in 16 high- daily new cases and daily new deaths were col- ly populated African countries, including “South lected from the World Health Organization3. The Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Mo- daily information on meteorological conditions, rocco, Kenya, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, temperature and humidity was recorded from Niger, Somalia, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, climate web “Time and Date”9, and mean values Madagascar”7. were calculated. The daily new cases and new deaths due to COVID-19, daily information on meteorological conditions, temperature and hu- Materials and Methods midity were recorded from the date of appearance of first case of SARS-COV-2 in the region, Feb Africa is the world’s second most largest and 14, 2020 to August 2, 2020. The daily mean tem- most populous continent, surrounded by the perature during this period was 26.16±0.12°C, Mediterranean sea to the north, the Isthmus of and humidity was 57.41±0.38%. Figure 1. Mean temperature, humidity, daily cases and daily deaths in sixteen countries in various regions of Africa. 9754 Impact of weather conditions on incidence and mortality of COVID-19 pandemic in Africa Statistical Analysis recorded from the date of appearance of first case The data were analyzed using R Core Team of SARC-COV-2 in the African region, from Feb (2020). R: A language and environment for statis- 14, 2020 to August 2, 2020 (Table I). The mean tical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Com- values of number of daily cases, daily deaths and puting, Vienna, Austria. URL http://www.R-proj- cumulative cases due to SARS-COV-2 infection ect.org/. Mean ± SEM has been reported for quan- are presented in Table I. titative meteorological factors. Normality of data The impact of temperature and humidity on the for Normal and Poisson distributions was checked epidemiological trends on number of cases and through one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. deaths were presented and correlation coefficient One Way ANOVA was applied to compared quan- values are given in Table II, and regression analysis titative parameters with countries, post-hoc Tukey results are presented in Table III. The mean tem- test was applied to observe which group mean perature and humidity in South Africa 18.30±0.36, differs. Pearson correlation was applied to assess 45.04±1.43, Ghana 30.18±0.38, 69.44±0.80, Ni- the relationship between various meteorological geria 30.31±0.36, 62.05±1.68, Egypt 27.20±0.48, factors at 1% level of significance, whereas, Pois- 36.19±1.17, Algeria 21.97±0.40, 71.31±1.26, Mo- son Regression Analysis was performed to predict rocco 22.62±0.31, 62.54±0.81, Kenya 21.98±0.18, the number of cases and deaths with humidity 61.66±0.84, Congo 28.28±0.22, 69.27±0.62, and temperature after fulfilling the assumptions. Côte d’Ivoire 29.75±0.20, 70.75±0.75, Camer- Goodness of Fit tests and Model tests for all re- oon 27.24±0.20, 75.30±0.79, Niger 35.62±0.33, gression analysis were significant. An α=0.05 was 32.71±1.68, Somalia 31.90±0.22, 47.60±0.99, Tan- considered as statistically significant. zania 24.55±0.15, 55.67±0.93, Zambia 21.76±0.38, 49.04±1.54, Mozambique 25.69±0.26, 52.45±1.20, Madagascar 21.72±0.28, 57.18±0.78. The overall Results mean temperature in all these 16 African countries was 26.16±0.12°C, and humidity was 57.41±0.38%. The impact of heat and humidity on the daily Number of cases and deaths in South Africa new cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandem- significantly varied with other African countries ic in 16 African countries was analyzed. The (p<0.001). The cumulative number of cases oc- daily basis mean temperature and humidity were curred in South Africa and Egypt significantly dif- Table I.
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