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Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement Feasibility Study

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Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement Feasibility Study 19th September 2018 Transport for Wales 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 Mott MacDonald Fitzalan House Fitzalan Road Cardiff CF24 0EL United Kingdom T +44 (0)29 2046 7800 F +44 (0)29 2047 1888 mottmac.com Transport for Wales Southgate House Wood Street Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Cardiff 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 CF10 1EW Rail ReinstatementAberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement - Feasibility Study Report Mott MacDonald Feasibility Study 19th September 2018 Mott MacDonald Limited. Registered in England and Wales no. 1243967. Registered office: Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, Transport for Wales United Kingdom 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 Mott MacDonald | Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement v Feasibility Study Issue and Revision Record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A 22/11/17 J.Howe A.Morton M. de Voil First Draft for TfW Review C.White M.Driscoll O.Jefferies R.Teixeira P.Connolly J.Williams S.Rocke N.Price A.Holt C.Probert A.Sinclair K.Wall C.Williams J.Turner J.Crocket S.Cull K.Martin C.Pound T.Grainger D.Crilly C.Onal B 22/01/18 J.Howe A.Morton M. de Voil Wider Economic Impacts J.Crocket J.Howe & TfW comments incorporated C 07/05/18 J.Howe A.Morton M. de Voil Welsh Government comments incorporated D 04/07/18 J.Howe A.Morton M. de Voil Minor Amendments E 19/09/18 J.Howe A.Morton M. de Voil Minor Template Amendments Document reference: 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 Information class: Standard This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above- captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. This report has been pr epared sol el y for use by the party which commissi oned it (the ‘Client’) i n connecti on with the capti oned proj ect. It should not be used for any other purpose. N o person other than the Client or any party who has expressl y agreed ter ms of r eliance with us (the ‘Reci pient(s)’) may rel y on the content, i nformati on or any views expressed i n the repor t. We accept no duty of care, responsi bility or liability to any other r eci pient of thi s document. T his r eport is confi denti al and contains pr opri etar y intell ectual property. No representati on, warranty or under taking, expr ess or i mplied, is made and no responsi bility or liability is accepted by us to any party other than the Cli ent or any Reci pient(s), as to the accuracy or completeness of the i nformati on contai ned i n this r eport. For the avoidance of doubt this r eport does not in any way purport to i nclude any legal , insur ance or fi nanci al advice or opi nion. We disclai m all and any liability whether arising i n tort or contract or other wise which it might otherwise have to any party other than the Cli ent or the Reci pient(s), in r espect of this report, or any infor mation attri buted to i t. We accept no r esponsibility for any error or omission i n the r eport which is due to an error or omission i n data, infor mation or statements supplied to us by other par ties incl udi ng the client (‘D ata’). We have not i ndependentl y verified such D ata and have assumed it to be accurate, complete, reli abl e and current as of the date of such infor mation. Forecasts presented i n this document were pr epared usi ng Data and the report is dependent or based on D ata. Inevitabl y, some of the assumptions used to develop the for ecasts will not be realised and unantici pated events and circumstances may occur. C onsequentl y M ott MacDonal d does not guarantee or warr ant the concl usi ons contained i n the repor t as there are li kel y to be differ ences between the for ecasts and the actual results and those di ffer ences may be material. Whil e we consi der that the infor mation and opini ons gi ven i n this r eport are sound all parti es must rel y on their own skill and j udgement when making use of it. Under no circumstances may this report or any extr act or summar y ther eof be used in connection with any public or pri vate securities offering i ncluding any rel ated memorandum or prospectus for any securities offering or stock exchange listing or announcement. 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 | 19th September 2018 Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement - Feasibility Study Report Mott MacDonald | Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement vi Feasibility Study Contents Executive summary 14 1 Introduction 17 2 Outline Development Remit 19 2.1 Context 19 2.2 Strategic Fit 22 2.3 Problem Definition 22 2.4 Project Objectives 22 2.5 Project Benefits 23 2.6 Abbreviations 23 2.7 Definitions 24 2.8 Prioritisation and Timescales 24 2.9 Interfaces 24 2.10 Key Stakeholders 24 2.11 Timescale, Cost, Quality Constraints 24 2.12 Phasing 24 2.13 Geographical Boundaries 25 2.14 Intended Effects on Train Service Specification 26 2.15 Intended Impacts on Existing Train Services or Obligations 26 2.16 Intended Reliability and Availability Changes and the Effects on Train Service Performance 26 2.17 Proposed Physical Changes and Known Constraints (Rolling Stock and Infrastructure) 26 2.18 Core Options 27 2.19 Interfaces and Dependencies on Other Projects or Franchises 27 2.20 Application of Standards 27 2.21 Statutory Powers Requirements 27 2.22 Environmental Requirements 27 2.23 Town Planning Requirements 27 2.24 High Level Safety Requirements 27 2.25 Other Requirements or Constraints 27 2.26 Complete Client Requirement Statement 27 2.27 References 28 3 Technical Considerations 29 3.1 Railway Alignment 29 3.2 Civil Engineering 31 3.2.1 Crossings and Severance 31 3.2.2 Rights of Way & Utilities 31 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 | 19th September 2018 Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement - Feasibility Study Report Mott MacDonald | Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement vii Feasibility Study 3.2.3 Structures (Bridges, Tunnels, Culverts, etc.) 40 3.2.4 Stations 43 3.2.5 Geotechnics 45 3.3 Railway Systems 50 3.3.1 Railway Signalling 50 3.3.2 Telecoms 56 3.4 Railway Operations 58 3.4.1 Speed Profiles, Running Times and Timetable Construction 58 3.4.2 Nominal 2 Hourly Timetable (90 minutes achieved) 61 3.4.3 Nominal Hourly Timetable 63 3.4.4 Operational Approaches and Issues 65 3.4.5 Operational Variances 65 3.5 Environment and Consents 66 3.5.1 Designated Sites 66 3.5.2 Historic Environment 67 3.5.3 Noise 75 3.5.4 Air Quality 76 3.5.5 Greenhouse Gases 76 3.5.6 Landscape 76 3.5.7 Water Resources 76 3.6 Flood Impacts 78 3.6.1 Sources of information 79 3.6.2 Planning policy 79 3.6.3 Development type 79 3.6.4 Justifying the location of development 80 3.6.5 Interpretation of flood constraint plans 80 3.6.6 Notable constraints and areas of interest 82 3.6.7 Conclusion and summary 84 3.7 Tunnelling (the Pen-Y-Banc Tunnel) 85 3.7.1 Geology 85 3.7.2 Tunnel sizing and shape 85 3.7.3 The expected conditions for excavation 85 3.7.4 Tunnel excavation methods 86 3.7.5 Tunnel support methods 86 3.7.6 Construction Duration Assessment 87 3.7.7 Risks and considerations 89 3.7.8 Fire, Life Safety 90 3.8 Accommodating the Gwili Steam Railway 91 3.8.1 The Gwili Railway today 91 3.8.2 Sharing the Gwili Valley 91 3.8.3 Alternative Routes 92 3.8.4 Other Options 92 3.8.5 ERTMS in cab signalling and Steam Trains 93 3.8.6 Conclusion 94 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 | 19th September 2018 Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement - Feasibility Study Report Mott MacDonald | Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement viii Feasibility Study 4 Route Overview 95 4.1 Aberystwyth to Llanfarian (0.0 to 5.0 km) 97 4.2 The Afon Ystwyth Valley (5.0 to 21.0 km) 104 4.3 Cors Caron (21.0 to 30.0 km) 109 4.4 Tregaron to Lampeter (30.0 to 46.0km) 112 4.5 Lampeter to Llanybydder (46.0 to 56.0km) 115 4.6 Llanybydder to Pencader (56.0 to 68.0km) 120 4.7 Pencader to Carmarthen (68.0 to 91.2km) 124 5 Capital Costs 132 5.1 Assumptions and Exclusions 133 5.2 Application of Optimism Bias 133 6 Economic Appraisal 134 6.1 The Appraised Scheme 136 6.1.1 New Stations 136 6.1.2 Service Pattern 137 6.1.3 Average Fare Levels 137 6.1.4 Opening and Modelled Years 137 6.2 Demand Forecasting 138 6.2.1 Overview 138 6.2.2 New Stations 138 6.2.3 Carmarthen Demand 140 6.2.4 Aberystwyth Demand 141 6.2.5 Demand Distribution 142 6.2.6 Forecasting Framework 142 6.2.7 Forecasting Framework 143 6.2.8 Ramp-Up rates 144 6.2.9 Demand Forecasts 145 6.3 Costs 146 6.3.1 Capital Expenditure 146 6.3.2 Operating Expenditure 146 6.4 Economic Appraisal 147 6.4.1 60 Year Appraisal Period 147 6.4.2 Assumptions 147 6.4.3 Marginal External Costs of Car Use 147 6.4.4 Transport User Benefits 148 6.4.5 Wider Economic Impacts 148 6.4.6 Summary of Level 1 Economic Impacts 148 6.5 Indicative Cost Estimates to Produce Economic Outcomes 149 6.6 Sensitivity Tests 151 6.6.1 Demand and Revenue Impacts 151 6.6.2 Economic Impacts 153 367590-WTD-CAR-3201 | 19th September 2018 Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement - Feasibility Study Report Mott MacDonald | Aberystwyth to Carmarthen Rail Reinstatement ix Feasibility Study 7 Wider Economic Impacts Assessment 154 7.1 National Policy 154 7.1.1 The Welsh Government’s
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