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Singapore REIT Sector Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW

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Singapore REIT Sector Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW 26 October 2015 Asia Pacific/Singapore Equity Research REITs (REITs SG (Asia)) Singapore REIT Sector Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW Nicholas Teh 603 2723 2085 [email protected] URA 3Q15: Continued softening in rents Daniel Lim 65 6212 3011 Figure 1: URA 3Q15 data summary [email protected] Price index Rental index Vacancy (%) 3Q15 2Q15 % chg 3Q15 2Q15 % chg 3Q15 2Q15 pp chg Office^ 138.8 139.0 -0.1 180.6 186.0 -2.9 10.3 10.5 -0.2 Retail^ 129.7 130.1 -0.3 115.0 117.4 -2.0 7.9 8.2 -0.3 Industrial 106.6 106.9 -0.3 101.7 102.5 -0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. - Biz parks^ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.7 13.9 1.8 Private home 142.3 144.2 -1.3 110.3 111.0 -0.6 7.8 7.9 -0.1 HDB resale 134.6 135.0 -0.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. ^ Vacancy for private space. Source: URA ■ Retail rents decline, but retail REIT reversions remain positive. Central region's retail rents dipped 2% QoQ with median rents on Orchard falling 0.9% QoQ, while the rest of the city area and suburban rents declined by -2% and -2.1%, respectively. Retail REIT reversions slowed but still remained positive despite the lower industry rents. We believe the divergence is attributed to the superior quality and location of the malls under the REITs. ■ Strongest rent decline in office. For 3Q15, central region's office rents declined 2.9% QoQ (2Q15: -2.6% QoQ) due to persisting weak demand and concerns over upcoming oversupply. The decline was led by central area's rents declining 3.1% (-2.6% in 2Q15), while fringe rents fell 1.1% (-2.4% in 2Q15). 3Q15 net demand came in at 139,931 sq ft (678,126 sq ft for 9M15), and is likely to miss the annual historical average demand of 1 mn sq ft. Some of the key upcoming office building completions, Guoco Tower (est TOP mid-2016) and Marina One (est TOP 2017) remain fully uncommitted while Duo (est TOP 3Q16) is ~30% committed. ■ Slight softening in industrial prices and rents. 3Q15's industrial rents softened by -0.8% QoQ (2Q: -0.7%) weighed down by the multi-user factory segment, which fell -1.1% QoQ (2Q: -1.2%), warehouse rents softened by -0.6% QoQ (2Q: -0.1%). 3Q15's rent reversions continued to moderate at MINT and MLT, however, AREIT bucked the trend posting reversions of +9.1% (2Q15: +6.6%). Industrial prices and rents softened by -0.3% QoQ and -0.8% QoQ, respectively. ■ Most benign on the retail sector followed by industrial as the stronger asset quality and location of the retail REIT assets will allow them to continue to post positive reversions amidst declining market rents. Our preferred picks are MCT followed by CMT and FCT. Amongst the industrial REITs we like KDC REIT, MINT and AREIT. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 26 October 2015 Focus charts and table Figure 2: Central region retail rent index fell by -2.0% Figure 3: …but retail REIT rent reversions remain positive QoQ… (%) 160 MCT FCT CMT 45 42.8 38.7 140 40 37.4 37.1 37.6 35 33.4 33 33.1 120 30 27.2 100 25 20 17.5 16.2 16.5 80 15.1 14.4 15 13.2 10.1 10.8 10.9 8.9 9.4 9.3 10 7.8 7.7 60 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.3 7.1 6.1 5.26 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.3 Mar-94 Mar-97 Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-15 3.8 4.6 4.1 5 2.5 Central region Central area Fringe area 0 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Central region = Central Area + Fringer Area. Source: URA Note: CMT and MCT are cumulative reversions while FCT is quarterly Source: URA. Figure 4: Pace of office rent decline increased to -2.9% Figure 5: Industrial prices and rents decreased by -0.3% QoQ from -2.6% QoQ in 2Q15 and -0.8% QoQ respectively (sq ft) Index 1,200,000 30% 110 1,000,000 25% 100 800,000 20% 14.8% 90 600,000 15% 80 400,000 6.0% 10% 70 200,000 2.8% 5% 0 0% 60 -200,000 -2.9%-5% 50 -400,000 -10% 40 -10.7% -600,000 -15% Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 Net office demand Office rent growth (RHS) Industrial price index Industrial rental index Note: Data reflects private office demand. Source: URA *A new Industrial price index was introduced in 1Q15. Source: URA Figure 6: CS Singapore property universe—developers’ and REITs’ valuation summary Price (S$) Mkt cap RNAV % prem / Up/dn DPU growth (%) P/E (x) Div. yield (%) ROE (%) P/B (x) (disc) Company Ticker Rating Local Target S$ mn S$ to RNAV % T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T CCT CCT SP U 1.41 1.43 4,160 1.43 -1 1 0.2 3.0 18.0 17.1 6.0 4.5 0.81 K-REIT KREIT SP N 0.99 1.11 3,152 1.11 -11 13 -5.3 -0.5 19.0 18.4 7.0 3.7 0.70 Suntec SUN SP U 1.68 1.54 4,214 1.54 9 -8 2.6 1.7 15.7 14.9 5.8 5.0 0.79 CMT CT SP O 2.05 2.36 7,249 2.36 -13 15 3.0 5.3 17.5 16.6 5.4 6.3 1.14 MCT MCT SP O 1.40 1.62 2,954 1.62 -14 16 2.4 0.2 18.3 18.2 5.9 6.1 1.13 FCT FCT SP O 2.01 2.24 1,843 2.24 -10 11 3.2 1.2 17.5 17.3 6.0 5.8 1.05 SPHREIT SPHREIT SP N 0.95 1.10 2,403 1.10 -14 16 1.3 1.3 20.2 19.9 5.8 4.9 1.00 AREIT AREIT SP O 2.50 2.60 6,020 2.60 -4 4 6.5 5.2 16.3 15.4 6.2 6.5 1.20 MLT MLT SP N 1.02 1.08 2,516 1.08 -6 6 -0.5 -0.7 11.2 11.2 7.2 8.7 0.99 MINT MINT SP O 1.54 1.74 2,726 1.74 -11 13 2.6 5.0 14.6 13.9 6.9 7.7 1.16 Ascott ART SP N 1.21 1.37 1,870 1.37 -12 13 -4.0 4.3 19.7 17.3 6.5 4.4 0.88 CDLT HT CDREIT SP N 1.40 1.66 1,374 1.66 -16 19 -3.6 3.8 13.1 12.6 7.6 6.4 0.85 OUE HT OUEHT SP N 0.82 0.95 1,092 0.95 -14 16 -0.2 -0.2 14.3 7.8 8.2 6.4 0.91 KepDC KDCREIT SP O 1.06 1.16 931 1.16 -9 10 7.7 6.3 15.6 14.8 6.3 7.7 1.22 Note: Priced as of 23 October 2015. O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U= UNDERPERFORM. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Singapore REIT Sector 2 26 October 2015 Continued decline in rents across the board Rents continued to decline across the board in 3Q15 with all sectors facing issues on weak demand and elevated levels of supply. The rent declines were led by the office sector at -2.9% QoQ (2Q15: -2.6% QoQ) as central region's rents declined -3.1% and fringe fell -1.1%. Rents down across the Similarly, retail rents declined 2.0% QoQ (2Q15: -0.5% QoQ). Industrial rent declines were board as all sectors relatively more moderate at -0.8% QoQ with factory rents falling -1.1% and warehouses continued to face headwinds -0.6%. on weak demand and strong Prices were also slightly lower, -0.1% QoQ (2Q15: +0.3% QoQ) for office while retail supply prices moderated by -0.3% QoQ (2Q15: -0.8%) and industrial prices dipped -0.3% QoQ (2Q15: -0.7%). Figure 7: URA 3Q15—QoQ and YoY data summary Prices Rents Vacancy rates (%) % % pp chg pp chg 3Q15 2Q15 QoQ 3Q14 % YoY 3Q15 2Q15 QoQ 3Q14 % YoY 3Q15 2Q15 QoQ 3Q14 YoY Office All areas* 138.8 139.0 -0.1 135.6 2.4 180.6 186.0 -2.9 186.6 -3.2 10.3 10.5 -0.2 9.1 1.2 Central* 143.0 142.9 0.1 138.5 3.2 187.0 192.9 -3.1 192.3 -2.8 9.9 10.1 -0.2 8.5 1.4 Fringe 122.1 123.3 -1.0 125.5 -2.7 147.8 149.5 -1.1 152.8 -3.3 13.3 13.3 0.0 9.2 4.1 Retail All areas* 129.7 130.1 -0.3 128.8 0.7 115.0 117.4 -2.0 117.8 -2.4 7.9 8.2 -0.3 7.4 0.5 Central* 122.5 121.4 0.9 121.5 0.8 117.2 119.5 -1.9 119.8 -2.2 8.5 8.9 -0.4 8.2 0.3 Fringe 135.6 136.4 -0.6 134.7 0.7 109.1 111.4 -2.1 111.8 -2.4 7.7 7.9 -0.2 9.5 -1.8 Orchard* n.a.
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