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Capitaland Commercial Trust Singapore Company Guide CapitaLand Commercial Trust Version 8 | Bloomberg: CCT SP | Reuters: CACT.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 8 Mar 2017 BUY From HK with love Last Traded Price ( 7 Mar 2017): S$1.525 (STI : 3,130.44) Timely acquisition of CapitaGreen. Despite the expected Price Target 12-mth: S$1.69 (11% upside and 6.1% yield) decline in the office market, we believe the timely acquisition Potential Catalyst: Sale of Wilkie Edge above book value of the remaining 60% in CapitaGreen not only helps to offset Where we differ: Above consensus due to boost from the acquisition of potential negative rental reversions and lower occupancies for the remaining 60% interest in CapitaGreen the rest of CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT)’s portfolio but will allow CCT to deliver 2% growth in DPU this year Analyst Mervin SONG CFA +65 6682 3715 [email protected] (excluding the impact from redevelopment of Golden Shoe and Derek TAN +65 6682 3716 [email protected] potential sale of Wilkie Edge). The boost is already visible by the 10% y-o-y increase in 4Q16 DPU. What’s New Trading at a discount to physical office transactions. Investors HK roadshow points to increasing demand from have been concerned over the value of CCT’s portfolio which the technology sector due to build out of a we believe is unwarranted. CCT’s Singapore Grade A office technology ecosystem in Singapore portfolio trades at an implied value of c.S$2,000 per square Still awaiting approval for redevelopment of foot (psf) compared to recent sales of between S$2,700- Golden Shoe into “iconic” building S$3,500 psf. While CCT’s Grade A portfolio is unlikely to trade higher to c.S$2,700 given the older profile of some of its Potentially approaching bottom in office rents properties, we believe the current strength of the physical market and 999-year leasehold status of some of its buildings, warrants CCT to trade close to its book value of S$1.73 per Price Relative unit or an implied valuation of S$2,100 psf. The next catalyst would be the sale of Wilkie Edge above book value. Upside from redevelopment of Golden Shoe. CCT intends to redevelop its Golden Shoe Car Park property. Subject to obtaining the necessary approvals, CCT plans to build a commercial building with c.1m square feet (sqft) of space in terms of gross floor area (GFA), equivalent to c.20% uplift in attributable net lettable area (NLA). Upon completion in 2021, Forecasts and Valuation the property will enhance CCT’s NAV and earnings. FY Dec (S$m) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F Gross Revenue 273 299 350 343 Net Property Inc 213 231 274 268 Valuation: Total Return 307 261 259 256 We maintain our DCF-based TP of S$1.69. With 10% capital Distribution Inc 254 269 280 283 upside and 5.9-6.1% yield, we maintain our BUY call. EPU (S cts) 8.17 7.89 8.59 8.22 EPU Gth (%) (35) (3) 9 (4) DPU (S cts) 8.62 9.08 9.29 9.10 Key Risks to Our View: DPU Gth (%) 2 5 2 (2) A key risk to our view is new office supply causing spot rents NAV per shr (S cts) 177 178 176 175 to fall below S$7 psf, which is likely to lead to lower-than- PE (X) 18.7 19.3 17.7 18.6 expected asking rents and rental income. Distribution Yield (%) 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.0 P/NAV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Aggregate Leverage (%) 30.0 37.5 37.5 37.5 At A Glance ROAE (%) 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.7 Issued Capital (m shrs) 2,963 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 4,519 / 3,202 Major Shareholders (%) Distn. Inc Chng (%): 0 0 Capitaland Limited 32.2 Consensus DPU (S cts): 9.00 9.10 Blackrock 6.7 Other Broker Recs: B: 11 S: 2 H: 11 CBRE Group Inc 4.9 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Free Float (%) 56.2 Finance L.P. 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 8.6 ICB Industry : Real Estate / Real Estate Investment Trust ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES ed: TH / sa: AS, PY Company Guide CapitaLand Commercial Trust WHAT’S NEW Post-HK roadshow notes We recently hosted Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT) for a office demand. Beyond the technology companies, CCT has non-deal roadshow in Hong Kong. While office rents are also seen growth in demand from regional banks. The expected to remain on a downward trajectory near term, we establishment of more co-working spaces is also a positive came back with increased confidence over the office outlook trend. These spaces not only cater to start-ups but also from 2018 onwards given the build-out of the technology incubate established overseas companies that want to ecosystem in Singapore which should drive demand as well as establish an initial presence in Singapore but do not want to the increasing pre-commitment levels for the new buildings rent a traditional office. such as Marina One. Key data points we will look out for going forward is the pace in which Marina One hits the 80% Competition from secondary stock. Investors raised concerns pre-commitment level. about competition from secondary office stock, i.e. buildings from which tenants have vacated to move into the new With CCT still trading at 10% discount to book value, buildings such as Marina One. While acknowledging this potential positive news flow from the sale of Wilkie Edge concern, management explained that some of this office above book value and approval for the redevelopment of stock may be removed from the market as these buildings Golden Shoe, we maintain our BUY call with a TP of S$1.70. undergo refurbishments. For example, Republic Plaza will be undergoing renovations to upgrade it lift and lobby areas. In Below are the key salient points from the meetings with addition, 8 Cross Street which PwC will be vacating for investors: Marina One was recently purchased by Manulife, which may relocate its operations from Bras Basah to the building. Singapore office rental outlook. Office rents have fallen from recent peak of S$11.40 psf per month in 1Q15 to S$9.10 psf Golden Shoe redevelopment. CCT is awaiting the necessary per month in 4Q16. While rents are likely to soften this year, government approvals as well as the differential premium the pace of decline may moderate given pre-commitment amount to be paid for the conversion of the Golden Shoe site levels at the new buildings such as Marina One and Duo have from transport to commercial use before deciding whether it risen to 60% and 45% respectively. With supply expected to is economically feasible to development the site into a 1m fall from 2018 onwards, there is potential for office rents to sqft of commercial GFA. bottom out at the end of 2017 and early 2018. However, the key inflection point management is looking at is a 80% pre- In addition, given the potential building being built could be commitment level at Marina One. Upon reaching 80%, as high as 280 metres which will change the Singapore Marina One may start to increase its asking rents materially skyline, CCT is in active discussions with the local authorities given less space available to be leased out in the building. for the development of an “iconic” building. CCT is targeting to start demolition works from July. While there is a 25% Positive demand from the technology sector. While the development cap for REITs for existing buildings in its demand for office space from the oil & gas and banks in portfolio, to better manage the development risks, it will seek general has slowed, CCT continues to see demand for space a JV partner for the project as well as keep exposure to the from the technology sector. With the large technology project to c.10% of the overall portfolio. companies such as Microsoft, Google and Facebook now in Singapore and the local operations of these companies not Funding for the project will also come from the potential sale only focused on sales and marketing but development work, of Wilkie Edge and in-the-money convertible bonds (expiry in there is potential for the establishment of an ecosystem of September 2017 and upon conversion will result in gearing technology companies. This may attract more technology dropping to c.35% from 37% currently). companies to expand or start up in Singapore, thus driving ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES Page 2 Company Guide CapitaLand Commercial Trust Net Property Income and Margins (%) CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Earnings Drivers: Staggered weighted lease expiry profile to help mitigate negative rental reversions. We have factored in lower occupancies and negative reversions at Capital Tower, Six Battery Road, and One George Street for FY17 and FY18. CCT’s defensive weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.6 years by net lettable area (NLA) should also help ensure that the negative impact from an anticipated decline in rents over the next two years will be gradual rather than immediate. Thus, CCT offers investors some measure of earnings stability and certainty amid Net Property Income and Margins (%) record office completions over the next two years. Defensive portfolio with >70% of office leases expiring in FY19 and beyond, coinciding with the period when Singapore faces no new office supply.
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